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Ecosystem services (ESs) are crucial for sustainable development, as they impact human well-being. However, changes in land use/land cover (LULC) caused by climate change and social development can negatively affect ESs, particularly in arid river basins. This study focuses on current and future changes in LULC in the Kaxghar River Basin (KRB) in Xinjiang, China, to determine how these changes will affect the region's ESs. The integrated PLUS-InVEST model was used to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution and changing patterns of habitat quality (HQ) and carbon storage (CS) under the natural increase scenario (NIS), economic development scenario (EDS), and water protection scenario (WPS). Additionally, the Ecosystem Service Contribution Index (ESCI) was also calculated to evaluate the contribution of LULC changes to ESs. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the average value of HQ in the KRB gradually decreased from 0.54 to 0.49 and CS trended slightly upward, with a total increase of 0.07 × 106 t. Furthermore, the changes in CS were highly consistent with changes in LULC. (2) From 2020 to 2030, the area of low-grade (0–0.2) HQ saw a continuous increase, with the fastest growth occurring in 2030 under the EDS. Meanwhile, under the WPS, HQ significantly improved, expanding by 1238 km2 in area. Total CS under the three test scenarios tended to decline, with the NIS showing the smallest decrease. (3) The expansion of cropland and unused land had a negative impact on ESs, particularly on CS, whereas the conversion to grassland and forestland had a significant positive impact. In conclusion, these insights will enrich our understanding of ESs in the study area and contribute to balancing the relationship between ecological conservation and socioeconomic development in the Kaxghar River Basin, as well as in other parts of China's arid Northwest and similar regions around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of global climate change and human activities are anticipated to significantly impact ecosystem services (ESs), particularly in urban agglomerations of arid regions. This paper proposes a framework integrating the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), system dynamics (SD) model, patch generation land use simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model for predicting land use change and optimizing ESs spatial patterns that is built upon the SSP-RCP scenarios from CMIP6. This framework is applied to the oasis urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang (UANSTM), China. The findings indicate that both the SD model and PLUS model can accurately forecast the distribution of future land use. The SD model shows a relative error of less than 2.32%, while the PLUS model demonstrates a Kappa coefficient of 0.89. The land use pattern displays obvious spatial heterogeneity under different climate scenarios. The expansion of cultivated land and construction land is the main form of land use change in UANSTM in the future. The DBN model proficiently simulates the interactive relationships between ESs and diverse factors. The classification error rates for net primary productivity (NPP), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and soil retention (SR) are 20.04%, 3.47%, 4.45%, and 13.42%, respectively. The prediction and diagnosis of DBN determine the optimal ESs development scenario and the optimal ESs region in the study area. It is found that the majority of ESs in UANSTM are predominantly influenced by natural factors with the exception of HQ. The socio-economic development plays a minor role in such urban agglomerations. This study offers significant insights that can contribute to the fields of ecological protection and land use planning in arid urban agglomerations worldwide. • An integrated framework combining DBN, SD, PLUS and InVEST models was proposed. • Impact of natural and socioeconomic factors on ESs was determined under climate scenarios. • The spatial pattern of ESs was optimized and partitioned using DBNs. • ESs in arid oasis urban agglomerations are mainly affected by natural factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of ecosystem services value is the basis for the realization of integrated management of these services. In recent decades, the hotspots of China's newly added cropland have shifted to the Xinjiang oasis areas, where the ecological environment is relatively fragile. However, the impact of changes in cropland use on the terrestrial ecosystem services value (TESV) in Xinjiang, China, has not been studied in depth, and it is related to the sustainability of the dynamic balance between China's cropland and the sustainable management of natural resources in Xinjiang. This study focuses on Xinjiang and employs the benefit transfer method and five phases (2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020) of high-resolution and finely classified remote sensing monitoring data of land use to evaluate the impact of changes in cropland use on the TESV from 2000 to 2020. The findings suggest the following: (1) The cropland area in Xinjiang grew from 6.5682 million ha in 2000 to 8.9874 million ha in 2020, demonstrating significant expansion, and it has gone through four stages: rapid expansion, steady expansion, rapid expansion and relative stability. (2) A sharp mutual conversion trend is observed between cropland and other types of land use in Xinjiang. Grassland and unused land are the main sources of new cropland, while lost cropland has been mainly converted back into grassland and construction land. (3) During 2000–2020, although the extensive expansion of cropland and conversion of cropland mainly at the expense of ecological land in Xinjiang have significantly enhanced the provision services of the terrestrial ecosystem (539.49 million USD), ecosystem regulation services (−1508.47 million USD), support services (−1084.47 million USD) and cultural services (−565.05 million USD) experienced losses. Consequently, an overall loss in the TESV has ensued. This study provides new insights that help re-examine the sustainability issue of the spatial transfer of cropland in China, and it also offers guidance for the realization of the sustainable management of natural resources in Xinjiang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implementation of systemic modeling methods to understand the variation of natural capital and ecosystem services in response to economic activities has huge significance for sound decision-making also at local scale. This paper reports the results of an investigation performed on the grassland ecosystem in North Xinjiang. The Emergy Synthesis method introduced by H.T. Odum in the 1980s was used to dynamically simulate the trend of grassland natural capital and its related ecosystem services. The simulation of natural capital was based on indexes of standing biomass, soil organic matter, soil nitrogen and soil water storages; ecosystem services were assessed by means of indexes of annual CO2 uptake, O2 release, forage supply as animal feed, food supply for human nutrition, and finally soil conservation. Results indicate that an upper limit of livestock carrying capacity in the region was reached in the year 1994; after that year the natural capital and main ecosystem services of the grassland ecosystem declined steadily. The emergy based currency equivalent value of the grassland ecosystem in terms of ecosystem services was higher than 87.3 billion Yuan RMB/yr in 1990. Such a value declined to 62.3 billion Yuan RMB/yr in 2010. Similarly, the total emergy based value of natural capital was about 331.7 billion Yuan RMB in 1990 and dropped to 155.6 billion Yuan RMB in 2010. According to the simulation model, the natural capital components such as biomass and soil stocks, the ecosystem services and the replacement value declined due to intensive herding and disturbance from human activities. Such trend is not sustainable because it exceeds the renewable carrying capacity of the area, but it is likely to continue until fundamental changes in human behavior and management of the grassland and animal husbandry occur or until the whole area is fully degraded. Social reasons prevent from simply decreasing the intensity of the livestock activities that provide living means to a large number of local farmers. As a consequence, the traditional low-productivity and environmental unfriendly grazing farming system should gradually be converted into a human-managed pasture based on farming higher productivity pasture crops in a small part of the local land, in order to decrease the grazing pressure on natural grassland of North Xinjiang. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]