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Background: In August 2011, the German Protection against Infection Act was amended, mandating the reporting of healthcare associated infection (HAI) outbreak notifications by all healthcare workers in Germany via local public health authorities and federal states to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Objective: To describe the reported HAI-outbreaks and the surveillance system’s structure and capabilities. Methods: Information on each outbreak was collected using standard paper forms and notified to RKI. Notifications were screened daily and regularly analysed. Results: Between November 2011 and November 2012, 1,326 paper forms notified 578 HAI-outbreaks, between 7 and 116 outbreaks per month. The main causative agent was norovirus (n = 414/578; 72%). Among the 108 outbreaks caused by bacteria, the most frequent pathogens were Clostridium difficile (25%) Klebsiella spp. (19%) and Staphylococcus spp. (19%). Multidrug-resistant bacteria were responsible for 54/108 (50%) bacterial outbreaks. Hospitals were affected most frequently (485/578; 84%). Hospital outbreaks due to bacteria were mostly reported from intensive care units (ICUs) (45%), followed by internal medicine wards (16%). Conclusion: The mandatory HAI-outbreak surveillance system describes common outbreaks. Pathogens with a particular high potential to cause large or severe outbreaks may be identified, enabling us to further focus research and preventive measures. Increasing the sensitivity and reliability of the data collection further will facilitate identification of outbreaks able to increase in size and severity, and guide specific control measures to interrupt their propagation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Around 67 million pets are owned by households in the United Kingdom, and an increasing number of these are exotic animals. Approximately a third of pets are purchased through retail outlets or direct from breeders. A wide range of infections can be associated with companion animals. Objectives: This study uses a systematic literature review to describe the transmission of zoonotic disease in humans associated with a pet shop or other location selling pets (incidents of rabies tracebacks and zoonoses from pet food were excluded). Data sources: PubMed and EMBASE. Results: Fifty seven separate case reports or incidents were described in the 82 papers that were identified by the systematic review. Summary information on each incident is included in this manuscript. The infections include bacterial, viral and fungal diseases and range in severity from mild to life threatening. Infections associated with birds and rodents were the most commonly reported. Over half of the reports describe incidents in the Americas, and three of these were outbreaks involving more than 50 cases. Many of the incidents identified relate to infections in pet shop employees. Limitations: This review may have been subject to publication bias, where unusual and unexpected zoonotic infections may be over-represented in peer-reviewed publications. It was also restricted to English-language articles so that pathogens that are more common in non-Western countries, or in more exotic animals not common in Europe and the Americas, may have been under-represented. Conclusions/implications: A wide spectrum of zoonotic infections are acquired from pet shops. Salmonellosis and psittacosis were the most commonly documented diseases, however more unusual infections such as tularemia also appeared in the review. Given their potential to spread zoonotic infection, it is important that pet shops act to minimise the risk as far as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A large proportion of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low and middle income countries (LMICs) have unknown treatment outcomes and are classified as lost to follow-up (LTFU). Physical tracing of patients classified as LTFU is common; however, effects of tracing on outcomes remains unclear. The objective of this systematic review is to compare estimates of LTFU, mortality and retention in LMIC in cohorts of patients with and without physical tracing. Methods and Findings: We systematically identified studies in LMIC programmatic settings using MEDLINE (2003–2011) and HIV conference abstracts (2009–2011). Studies reporting the proportion LTFU 12-months after ART initiation were included. Tracing activities were determined from manuscripts or by contacting study authors. Studies were classified as “tracing studies” if physical tracing was available for the majority of patients. Summary estimates from the 2 groups of studies (tracing and non-tracing) for LTFU, mortality, stop of ART, transfers out, and retention on ART were determined. 261 papers and 616 abstracts were identified of which 39 studies comprising 54 separate cohorts (n = 187,666) met inclusion criteria. Of those, physical tracing was available for 46% of cohorts. Treatment programs with physical tracing activities had lower estimated LTFU (7.6% vs. 15.1%; p<.001), higher estimated mortality (10.5% vs. 6.6%; p = .006), higher retention on ART (80.0 vs. 75.8%; p = .04) and higher retention at the original site (80.0% vs. 72.9%; p = .02). Conclusions: Knowledge of patient tracing is critical when interpreting program outcomes of LTFU, mortality and retention. The reduction of the proportion LTFU in tracing studies was only partially explained by re-classification of unknown outcomes. These data suggest that tracing may lead to increased re-engagement of patients in care, rather than just improved classification of unknown outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of network epidemiology's central assumptions is that the contact structure over which infectious diseases propagate can be represented as a static network. However, contacts are highly dynamic, changing at many time scales. In this paper, we investigate conceptually simple methods to construct static graphs for network epidemiology from temporal contact data. We evaluate these methods on empirical and synthetic model data. For almost all our cases, the network representation that captures most relevant information is a so-called exponential-threshold network. In these, each contact contributes with a weight decreasing exponentially with time, and there is an edge between a pair of vertices if the weight between them exceeds a threshold. Networks of aggregated contacts over an optimally chosen time window perform almost as good as the exponential-threshold networks. On the other hand, networks of accumulated contacts over the entire sampling time, and networks of concurrent partnerships, perform worse. We discuss these observations in the context of the temporal and topological structure of the data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Water-associated Disease Index (WADI) was developed to identify and visualize vulnerability to different water-associated diseases by integrating a range of social and biophysical determinants in map format. In this study vulnerability is used to encompass conditions of exposure, susceptibility, and differential coping capacity to a water-associated health hazard. By assessing these conditions, the tool is designed to provide stakeholders with an integrated and long-term understanding of subnational vulnerabilities to water-associated disease and contribute to intervention strategies to reduce the burden of illness. The objective of this paper is to describe and validate the WADI tool by applying it to dengue. A systemic ecohealth framework that considers links between people, the environment and health was applied to identify secondary datasets, populating the index with components including climate conditions, land cover, education status and water use practices. Data were aggregated to create composite indicators of exposure and of susceptibility in a Geographic Information System (GIS). These indicators were weighted by their contribution to dengue vulnerability, and the output consisted of an overall index visualized in map format. The WADI was validated in this Malaysia case study, demonstrating a significant association with dengue rates at a sub-national level, and illustrating a range of factors that drive vulnerability to the disease within the country. The index output indicated high vulnerability to dengue in urban areas, especially in the capital Kuala Lumpur and surrounding region. However, in other regions, vulnerability to dengue varied throughout the year due to the influence of seasonal climate conditions, such as monsoon patterns. The WADI tool complements early warning models for water-associated disease by providing upstream information for planning prevention and control approaches, which increasingly require a comprehensive and geographically broad understanding of vulnerability for implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. Methods/Principal Findings: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: syndromic surveillance system has great advantages in promoting the early detection of epidemics and reducing the necessities of disease confirmation, and it is especially effective for surveillance in resource poor settings. However, most current syndromic surveillance systems are established in developed countries, and there are very few reports on the development of an electronic syndromic surveillance system in resource-constrained settings. Objective: this study describes the design and pilot implementation of an electronic surveillance system (ISS) for the early detection of infectious disease epidemics in rural China, complementing the conventional case report surveillance system. Methods: ISS was developed based on an existing platform ‘Crisis Information Sharing Platform’ (CRISP), combining with modern communication and GIS technology. ISS has four interconnected functions: 1) work group and communication group; 2) data source and collection; 3) data visualization; and 4) outbreak detection and alerting. Results: As of Jan. 31st 2012, ISS has been installed and pilot tested for six months in four counties in rural China. 95 health facilities, 14 pharmacies and 24 primary schools participated in the pilot study, entering respectively 74256, 79701, and 2330 daily records into the central database. More than 90% of surveillance units at the study sites are able to send daily information into the system. In the paper, we also presented the pilot data from health facilities in the two counties, which showed the ISS system had the potential to identify the change of disease patterns at the community level. Conclusions: The ISS platform may facilitate the early detection of infectious disease epidemic as it provides near real-time syndromic data collection, interactive visualization, and automated aberration detection. However, several constraints and challenges were encountered during the pilot implementation of ISS in rural China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent focus on earlier detection of pathogen introduction in human and animal populations has led to the development of surveillance systems based on automated monitoring of health data. Real- or near real-time monitoring of pre-diagnostic data requires automated classification of records into syndromes–syndromic surveillance–using algorithms that incorporate medical knowledge in a reliable and efficient way, while remaining comprehensible to end users. Methods: This paper describes the application of two of machine learning (Naïve Bayes and Decision Trees) and rule-based methods to extract syndromic information from laboratory test requests submitted to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory. Results: High performance (F1-macro = 0.9995) was achieved through the use of a rule-based syndrome classifier, based on rule induction followed by manual modification during the construction phase, which also resulted in clear interpretability of the resulting classification process. An unmodified rule induction algorithm achieved an F1-micro score of 0.979 though this fell to 0.677 when performance for individual classes was averaged in an unweighted manner (F1-macro), due to the fact that the algorithm failed to learn 3 of the 16 classes from the training set. Decision Trees showed equal interpretability to the rule-based approaches, but achieved an F1-micro score of 0.923 (falling to 0.311 when classes are given equal weight). A Naïve Bayes classifier learned all classes and achieved high performance (F1-micro = 0.994 and F1-macro = .955), however the classification process is not transparent to the domain experts. Conclusion: The use of a manually customised rule set allowed for the development of a system for classification of laboratory tests into syndromic groups with very high performance, and high interpretability by the domain experts. Further research is required to develop internal validation rules in order to establish automated methods to update model rules without user input. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of infectious diseases that are spread through direct contact have been proven to depend on the strength of community structure or modularity within the underlying network. It has been recently shown that weighted networks with similar modularity values may exhibit different mixing styles regarding the number of connections among communities and their respective weights. However, the effect of mixing style on epidemic behavior was still unclear. In this paper, we simulate the spread of disease within networks with different mixing styles: a dense-weak style (i.e., many edges among the communities with small weights) and a sparse-strong style (i.e., a few edges among the communities with large weights). Simulation results show that, with the same modularity: 1) the mixing style significantly influences the epidemic size, speed, pattern and immunization strategy; 2) the increase of the number of communities amplifies the effect of the mixing style; 3) when the mixing style changes from sparse-strong to dense-weak, there is a ‘saturation point’, after which the epidemic size and pattern become stable. We also provide a mean-field solution of the epidemic threshold and size on weighted community networks with arbitrary external and internal degree distribution. The solution explains the effect of the second moment of the degree distribution, and a symmetric effect of internal and external connections (incl. degree distribution and weight). Our study has both potential significance for designing more accurate metrics for the community structure and exploring diffusion dynamics on metapopulation networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the distribution of disease prevalence among heterogeneous populations at the national scale is fundamental for epidemiology and public health. Here, we use a combination of methods (spatial scan statistic, topological data analysis and epidemic profile) to study measurable differences in malaria intensity by regions and populations of Colombia. This study explores three main questions: What are the regions of Colombia where malaria is epidemic? What are the regions and populations in Colombia where malaria is endemic? What associations exist between epidemic outbreaks between regions in Colombia? Plasmodium falciparum is most prevalent in the Pacific Coast, some regions of the Amazon Basin, and some regions of the Magdalena Basin. Plasmodium vivax is the most prevalent parasite in Colombia, particularly in the Northern Amazon Basin, the Caribbean, and municipalities of Sucre, Antioquia and Cordoba. We find an acute peak of malarial infection at 25 years of age. Indigenous and Afrocolombian populations experience endemic malaria (with household transmission). We find that Plasmodium vivax decreased in the most important hotspots, often with moderate urbanization rate, and was re-introduced to locations with moderate but sustained deforestation. Infection by Plasmodium falciparum, on the other hand, steadily increased in incidence in locations where it was introduced in the 2009-2010 generalized epidemic. Our findings suggest that Colombia is entering an unstable transmission state, where rapid decreases in one location of the country are interconnected with rapid increases in other parts of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disease tolerance is a defense strategy against infections that aims at maintaining host health even at high pathogen replication or load. Tolerance mechanisms are currently intensively studied with the long-term goal of exploiting them therapeutically. Because tolerance-based treatment imposes less selective pressure on the pathogen it has been hypothesised to be “evolution-proof”. However, the primary public health goal is to reduce the incidence and mortality associated with a disease. From this perspective, tolerance-based treatment bears the risk of increasing the prevalence of the disease, which may lead to increased mortality. We assessed the promise of tolerance-based treatment strategies using mathematical models. Conventional treatment was implemented as an increased recovery rate, while tolerance-based treatment was assumed to reduce the disease-related mortality of infected hosts without affecting recovery. We investigated the endemic phase of two types of infections: acute and chronic. Additionally, we considered the effect of pathogen resistance against conventional treatment. We show that, for low coverage of tolerance-based treatment, chronic infections can cause even more deaths than without treatment. Overall, we found that conventional treatment always outperforms tolerance-based treatment, even when we allow the emergence of pathogen resistance. Our results cast doubt on the potential benefit of tolerance-based over conventional treatment. Any clinical application of tolerance-based treatment of infectious diseases has to consider the associated detrimental epidemiological feedback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan has been free from rabies since the 1950s. However, during the early 1900s several large-scale epidemics spread throughout the country. Here we investigate the dynamics of these epidemics between 1914 and 1933 in Osaka Prefecture, using archival data including newspapers. The association between dog rabies cases and human population density was investigated using Mixed-effects models and epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R0), the incubation and infectious period and the serial interval were estimated. A total of 4,632 animal rabies cases were reported, mainly in dogs (99.0%, 4,584 cases) during two epidemics from 1914 to 1921, and 1922 to 1933 respectively. The second epidemic was larger (3,705 cases) than the first (879 cases), but had a lower R0 (1.50 versus 2.42). The first epidemic was controlled through capture of stray dogs and tethering of pet dogs. Dog mass vaccination began in 1923, with campaigns to capture stray dogs. Rabies in Osaka Prefecture was finally eliminated in 1933. A total of 3,805 rabid dog-bite injuries, and 75 human deaths were reported. The relatively low incidence of human rabies, high ratio of post-exposure vaccines (PEP) and bite injuries by rabid dogs (minimum 6.2 to maximum 73.6, between 1924 and 1928), and a decline in the proportion of bite victims that developed hydrophobia over time (slope = -0.29, se = 3, p < 0.001), indicated that increased awareness and use of PEP might have prevented disease. Although significantly more dog rabies cases were detected at higher human population densities (slope = 0.66, se = 0.03, p < 0.01), there were fewer dog rabies cases detected per capita (slope = -0.34, se = 0.03, p < 0.01). We suggest that the combination of mass vaccination and restriction of dog movement enabled by strong legislation was key to eliminate rabies. Moreover, the prominent role of the media in both reporting rabies cases and efforts to control the disease likely contributed to promoting the successful participation required to achieve rabies elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Scrub typhus has been increasingly reported in Southern China, and public health authorities are concerned about its increased incidence. Additionally, little evidence is available on the epidemiology of scrub typhus in Southern China. This study aims to analyze the epidemiological and geographic features of ST in Guangzhou City, Southern China, to guide the future prevention efforts. Methods: Scrub typhus surveillance data in Guangzhou City during 2006–2012 were obtained from the Chinese National Communicable Disease Surveillance Network. We first conducted a descriptive analysis to analyze the epidemiological features of scrub typhus. Then we used space-time scan statistic based on a discrete Poisson model to detect and evaluate high-risk spatial-temporal clusters of scrub typhus. Results: There were 4,001 cases of scrub typhus in Guangzhou City during the study period. The incidence of scrub typhus increased from 3.29 per 100,000 in 2006 to 9.85 per 100,000 in 2012. A summer peak was observed in June and July with a second peak in September and October except year 2009 and 2011. The majority of the cases (71.4%) were among persons aged ≥40 years, and female incidence was higher than male incidence in persons ≥50 years. In the space-time analysis, high-risk clusters were concentrated in rural areas in Guangzhou City. Over the past 7 years, Haizhu District, an urban area, was found to be a high-risk cluster for the first time in 2012. Conclusion: The resurgence of scrub typhus epidemics in Guangzhou population in 2012 necessitates more effective measures for minimizing future epidemics. Consideration of high-risk population and historical spatial-temporal clusters may help prevent scrub typhus. The risk of scrub typhus in urban areas should not be neglected and needs more attention from public health authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To develop public-health policies that extend the lifespan of affordable anti-malarial drugs as effective treatment options, it is necessary to understand the evolutionary processes leading to the origin and spread of mutations conferring drug resistance in malarial parasites. We built a population-genetic model for the emergence of resistance under combination drug therapy. Reproductive cycles of parasites are specified by their absolute fitness determined by clinical parameters, thus coupling the evolutionary-genetic with population-dynamic processes. Initial mutations confer only partial drug-resistance. Therefore, mutant parasites rarely survive combination therapy and within-host competition is very weak among parasites. The model focuses on the early phase of such unsuccessful recurrent mutations. This ends in the rare event of mutants enriching in an infected individual from which the successful spread of resistance over the entire population is initiated. By computer simulations, the waiting time until the establishment of resistant parasites is analysed. Resistance spreads quickly following the first appearance of a host infected predominantly by mutant parasites. This occurs either through a rare transmission of a resistant parasite to an uninfected host or through a rare failure of drugs in removing “transient” mutant alleles. The emergence of resistance is delayed with lower mutation rate, earlier treatment, higher metabolic cost of resistance, longer duration of high drug dose, and higher drug efficacy causing a stronger reduction in the sensitive and resistant parasites’ fitnesses. Overall, contrary to other studies’ proposition, the current model based on absolute fitness suggests that aggressive drug treatment delays the emergence of drug resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important infectious disease in Hebei province, China. The average annual incidence is 3.10/100000. Although the incidence of HFRS is stable with a general decline in trend since 2004, an increase in the trend was observed in 2011. Few studies have been conducted to investigate the underlying risk factors for this disease. Methods: The epidemiological data of HFRS and the population data, meteorology, and remote sensing aspects of cities in Hebei province from 1999 to 2011 were collected. The epidemiological data included the population density in the region, seasonal data and rat density and rat's virus carriage rate. The data were analyzed by descriptive study, correlation analysis and multivariate linear analysis. Results: There were 26837 cases of HFRS was reported from 1999 to 2011. The infection occurred mainly in males, aged 20∼49 years, who were farmers. Rattus norvegicus was the main host animal. The incidence of HFRS was related to NDVI value, rat density and rat's virus carriage rate by multiple linear regression (F = 25.936, P<0.01). The pseudo- R2value for the model was 0.644. Conclusion: The incidence of HFRS was related to NDVI value, rat density and rat's virus carriage rate. Control of these factors should be used to prevent HFRS in Hebei province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pro-active and effective control as well as quantitative assessment of impact of climate change on malaria requires identification of the major drivers of the epidemic. Malaria depends on vector abundance which, in turn, depends on a combination of weather variables. However, there remain several gaps in our understanding and assessment of malaria in a changing climate. Most of the studies have considered weekly or even monthly mean values of weather variables, while the malaria vector is sensitive to daily variations. Secondly, rarely all the relevant meteorological variables have been considered together. An important question is the relative roles of weather variables (vector abundance) and change in host (human) population, in the change in disease load. Method: We consider the 28 states of India, characterized by diverse climatic zones and changing population as well as complex variability in malaria, as a natural test bed. An annual vector load for each of the 28 states is defined based on the number of vector genesis days computed using daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity from NCEP daily Reanalysis; a prediction of potential malaria load is defined by taking into consideration changes in the human population and compared with the reported number of malaria cases. Results: For most states, the number of malaria cases is very well correlated with the vector load calculated with the combined conditions of daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity; no single weather variable has any significant association with the observed disease prevalence. Conclusion: The association between vector-load and daily values of weather variables is robust and holds for different climatic regions (states of India). Thus use of all the three weather variables provides a reliable means of pro-active and efficient vector sanitation and control as well as assessment of impact of climate change on malaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability in the risk of transmission for respiratory pathogens can result from several factors, including the intrinsic properties of the pathogen, the immune state of the host and the host's behaviour. It has been proposed that self-reported social mixing patterns can explain the behavioural component of this variability, with simulated intervention studies based on these data used routinely to inform public health policy. However, in the absence of robust studies with biological endpoints for individuals, it is unclear how age and social behaviour contribute to infection risk. To examine how the structure and nature of social contacts influenced infection risk over the course of a single epidemic, we designed a flexible disease modelling framework: the population was divided into a series of increasingly detailed age and social contact classes, with the transmissibility of each age-contact class determined by the average contacts of that class. Fitting the models to serologically confirmed infection data from the 2009 Hong Kong influenza A/H1N1p pandemic, we found that an individual's risk of infection was influenced strongly by the average reported social mixing behaviour of their age group, rather than by their personal reported contacts. We also identified the resolution of social mixing that shaped transmission: epidemic dynamics were driven by intense contacts between children, a post-childhood drop in risky contacts and a subsequent rise in contacts for individuals aged 35–50. Our results demonstrate that self-reported social contact surveys can account for age-associated heterogeneity in the transmission of a respiratory pathogen in humans, and show robustly how these individual-level behaviours manifest themselves through assortative age groups. Our results suggest it is possible to profile the social structure of different populations and to use these aggregated data to predict their inherent transmission potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting: National Tuberculosis Program, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Objective: To summarize data on the incidence of tuberculosis and associated risk factors for cases reported during 2010–2011. Design: Retrospective analysis of routinely collected data through an established national disease notification system of the Ministry of Health in KSA. Results: The estimated incidence of all forms of tuberculosis fell from 15.8/100000 (95% CI: 15.3/100,000–16.3/100,000) in 2010 to 13.8/100,000 (95% CI: 13.4/100,000–14.2/100,000) in 2011. Saudis experienced a decrease from 11.8/100,000 (95% CI: 11.3/100,000 to 12.3/100,000) in 2010 to 9.9/100,000 (95% CI: 9.5/100,000–10.4/100,000) in 2011 while the incidence in non-Saudis declined from 24.7/100,000 (95% CI: 23.6/100,000 to 25.7/100,000) in 2010 to 22.5/100,000 (95% CI: 21.5/100,000 to 23.4/100,000) in 2011. The proportion of Extra Pulmonary TB (EPTB) which increased minimally from 30% in 2010 to 32% in 2011 was higher than global figures and strongly associated with age, sex, nationality and occupation. Conclusion: The current estimated incidence of about 14/100,000 in 2011 is less than half its estimated value of 44/100000 in 1990. Without prejudice to any under-reporting, the KSA appeared to be on the course for TB elimination by 2050 having reached the first milestone set by WHO. The proportion of EPTB remains higher than global figure and age, sex, nationality and occupation were significant independent predictors of EPTB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aimed to identify the transmission pattern of hepatitis A (HA) infection based on a primary dataset from the Brazilian National Hepatitis Survey in a pre-vaccination context. The national survey conducted in urban areas disclosed two epidemiological scenarios with low and intermediate HA endemicity. Methods: A catalytic model of HA transmission was built based on a national seroprevalence survey (2005 to 2009). The seroprevalence data from 7,062 individuals aged 5–69 years from all the Brazilian macro-regions were included. We built up three models: fully homogeneous mixing model, with constant contact pattern; the highly assortative model and the highly assortative model with the additional component accounting for contacts with infected food/water. Curves of prevalence, force of infection (FOI) and the number of new infections with 99% confidence intervals (CIs) were compared between the intermediate (North, Northeast, Midwest and Federal District) and low (South and Southeast) endemicity areas. A contour plot was also constructed. Results: The anti- HAV IgG seroprevalence was 68.8% (95% CI, 64.8%–72.5%) and 33.7% (95% CI, 32.4%–35.1%) for the intermediate and low endemicity areas, respectively, according to the field data analysis. The models showed that a higher force of infection was identified in the 10- to 19-year-old age cohort (∼9,000 infected individuals per year per 100,000 susceptible persons) in the intermediate endemicity area, whereas a higher force of infection occurred in the 15- to 29-year-old age cohort (∼6,000 infected individuals per year per 100,000 susceptible persons) for the other macro-regions. Conclusion: Our findings support the shift of Brazil toward intermediate and low endemicity levels with the shift of the risk of infection to older age groups. These estimates of HA force of infection stratified by age and endemicity levels are useful information to characterize the pre-vaccination scenario in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Up to 150 million North Americans currently use a groundwater system as their principal drinking water source. These systems are a potential source of exposure to enteric pathogens, contributing to the burden of waterborne disease. Waterborne disease outbreaks have been associated with US and Canadian groundwater systems over the past two decades. However, to date, this literature has not been reviewed in a comprehensive manner. Methods and Principal Findings: A combined review and pooled-analysis approach was used to investigate groundwater contamination in Canada and the US from 1990 to 2013; fifty-five studies met eligibility criteria. Four study types were identified. It was found that study location affects study design, sample rate and studied pathogen category. Approximately 15% (316/2210) of samples from Canadian and US groundwater sources were positive for enteric pathogens, with no difference observed based on system type. Knowledge gaps exist, particularly in exposure assessment for attributing disease to groundwater supplies. Furthermore, there is a lack of consistency in risk factor reporting (local hydrogeology, well type, well use, etc). The widespread use of fecal indicator organisms in reported studies does not inform the assessment of human health risks associated with groundwater supplies. Conclusions: This review illustrates how groundwater study design and location are critical for subsequent data interpretation and use. Knowledge gaps exist related to data on bacterial, viral and protozoan pathogen prevalence in Canadian and US groundwater systems, as well as a need for standardized approaches for reporting study design and results. Fecal indicators are examined as a surrogate for health risk assessments; caution is advised in their widespread use. Study findings may be useful during suspected waterborne outbreaks linked with a groundwater supply to identify the likely etiological agent and potential transport pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 virus was first identified in March 2013 and represents an ongoing threat to public health. There is a need to optimize serological methods for this new influenza virus. Here, we compared the sensitivity and specificity of the hemagglutinin inhibition (HI), microneutralization (MN), and Western blot (WB) assays for the detection of human antibodies against avian influenza A (H7N9) virus. HI with horse erythrocytes (hRBCs) and a modified MN assay possessed greater sensitivity than turkey erythrocytes and the standard MN assay, respectively. Using these assays, 80% of tested sera from confirmed H7N9 cases developed detectable antibody to H7N9 after 21 days. To balance sensitivity and specificity, we found serum titers of ≥20 (MN) or 160 (HI) samples were most effective in determining seropositive to H7N9 virus. Single serum with HI titers of 20–80 or MN titer of 10 could be validated by each other or WB assay. Unlike serum collected from adult or elderly populations, the antibody response in children with mild disease was low or undetectable. These combinations of assays will be useful in case diagnosis and serologic investigation of human cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although there is satisfactory recording of diseases affecting travelers visiting developing countries, little is known regarding morbidity of travelers when visiting developed countries. We sought to evaluate the morbidity of foreign travelers in Zakynthos, a popular Greek island attracting large number of foreign tourists every summer. Methods: Data from foreign travelers that accommodated in Zakynthos and sought medical services from the private offices of Zante Medical Care from May 1 to October 30 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. Results: Two thousand six hundred and eighty-eight patients were included in the study. The mean age (±SD) of the patients whom the age was recorded was 29.6 (±18.3) and 51.5% of them were from 18 to 40 years old. Disorders of the respiratory tract (32.7%), dermatologic conditions (21.1%), musculoskeletal injuries (16.4%), and gastrointestinal disorders (16.3%) were the four most prevalent clinical categories among patients. Ear disorder was the most common syndromic description (14.5%) among which 81.2% were ear infections; otitis externa and otitis media were diagnosed in 8.5% and 3.3% patients in total. The most common specific diagnosis was gastroenteritis (14.3%). Insect bite and sunburn were the most common diagnosis (6.5% and 3.8%, respectively) among patients with a dermatologic condition. Ear infection was the most common diagnosis in pediatric patients. Conclusion: Disorders mainly of the upper respiratory tract were the predominant causes of illness among foreign travelers in Zakynthos. Traveler's diarrhea was the most common specific diagnosis but the prevalence within the total population was not very high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992–1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993–2012. Methods: Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. Results: 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ2 = 15.17, d.f. = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. Conclusions: Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analysed an 11-year dataset (1998–2009) of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) that was based on surveillance of ∽23% of Israel's population. We examined whether the level of synchrony of ILI epidemics in Israel's 12 largest cities is high enough to view Israel as a single epidemiological unit. Two methods were developed to assess the synchrony: (1) City-specific attack rates were fitted to a simple model in order to estimate the temporal differences in attack rates and spatial differences in reporting rates of ILI. The model showed good fit to the data (R2  =  0.76) and revealed considerable differences in reporting rates of ILI in different cities (up to a factor of 2.2). (2) A statistical test was developed to examine the null hypothesis (H0) that ILI incidence curves in two cities are essentially identical, and was tested using ILI data. Upon examining all possible pairs of incidence curves, 77.4% of pairs were found not to be different (H0 was not rejected). It was concluded that all cities generally have the same attack rate and follow the same epidemic curve each season, although the attack rate changes from season to season, providing strong support for the “Israel is one city” hypothesis. The cities which were the most out of synchronization were Bnei Brak, Beersheba and Haifa, the latter two being geographically remote from all other cities in the dataset and the former geographically very close to several other cities but socially separate due to being populated almost exclusively by ultra-orthodox Jews. Further evidence of assortative mixing of the ultra-orthodox population can be found in the 2001–2002 season, when ultra-orthodox cities and neighborhoods showed distinctly different incidence curves compared to the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: From 2007 to 2009, the Netherlands experienced a major Q fever epidemic, with higher hospitalization rates than the 2–5% reported in the literature for acute Q fever pneumonia and hepatitis. We describe epidemiological and clinical features of hospitalized acute Q fever patients and compared patients presenting with Q fever pneumonia with patients admitted for other forms of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We also examined whether proximity to infected ruminant farms was a risk factor for hospitalization. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted for all patients diagnosed and hospitalized with acute Q fever between 2007 and 2009 in one general hospital situated in the high incidence area in the south of the Netherlands. Pneumonia severity scores (PSI and CURB-65) of acute Q fever pneumonia patients (defined as infiltrate on a chest x-ray) were compared with data from CAP patients. Hepatitis was defined as a >twofold the reference value for alanine aminotransferase and for bilirubin. Results: Among the 183 hospitalized acute Q fever patients, 86.0% had pneumonia. Elevated liver enzymes (alanine aminotransferase) were found in 32.3% of patients, although hepatitis was not observed in any of them. The most frequent clinical signs upon presentation were fever, cough and dyspnoea. The median duration of admission was five days. Acute Q fever pneumonia patients were younger, had less co-morbidity, and lower PSI and CURB-65 scores than other CAP patients. Anecdotal information from attending physicians suggests that some patients were admitted because of severe subjective dyspnoea, which was not included in the scoring systems. Proximity to an infected ruminant farm was not associated with hospitalization. Conclusion: Hospitalized Dutch acute Q fever patients mostly presented with fever and pneumonia. Patients with acute Q fever pneumonia were hospitalized despite low PSI and CURB-65 scores, presumably because subjective dyspnoea was not included in the scoring systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fever, Thrombocytopenia and Leukopenia Syndrome (FTLS) is caused by a bunyavirus known as the FTLS virus (FTLSV), which was recently discovered in China. We examined the epidemiological and etiological features of 637 laboratory-confirmed cases of FTLS with onset from January 2011 to December 2012 in Henan Province, China. The highest incidence of FTLS occurred between May and August: 76.5% of all laboratory-confirmed cases occurred during those four months. Of the laboratory-confirmed cases, 60.9% were in the 46–69 years old age groups; 96.1% (612/637) occurred in farmers; 98.1% (625/637) were reported from Xinyang Prefecture. During the same time period, 2047 cases were reported in China. The nucleotide and amino acid sequences of FTLSV strains identified during 2011–2012 in Henan Province were ≥96% identical. This findings provides insight for developing public-health interventions for the control and prevention of FTLS in epidemic area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chagas disease caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi is an important public health problem in Latin America. The immunological mechanisms involved in Chagas disease pathogenesis remain incompletely elucidated. The aim of this study was to explore cytokine profiles and their possible association to the infecting DTU and the pathogenesis of Chagas disease. Methods: 109 sero-positive T. cruzi patients and 21 negative controls from Bolivia and Colombia, were included. Flow cytometry assays for 13 cytokines were conducted on human sera. Patients were divided into two groups: in one we compared the quantification of cytokines between patients with and without chronic cardiomyopathy; in second group we compared the levels of cytokines and the genetic variability of T. cruzi. Results: Significant difference in anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory cytokines profiles was observed between the two groups cardiac and non-cardiac. Moreover, serum levels of IFN-γ, IL-12, IL-22 and IL-10 presented an association with the genetic variability of T.cruzi, with significant differences in TcI and mixed infections TcI/TcII. Conclusion: Expression of anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory cytokines may play a relevant role in determining the clinical presentation of chronic patients with Chagas disease and suggests the occurrence of specific immune responses, probably associated to different T. cruzi DTUs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Nosocomial transmission has been implicated as a key factor in the outbreak of extensively drug resistant (XDR) and multidrug-resistant (MDR-TB) tuberculosis at Church of Scotland Hospital (CoSH), in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa. The aim of this study was to quantify the burden of potentially infectious tuberculosis and the proportion of drug resistance among hospital inpatients throughout the province of KZN. Methods: Inpatients with current cough, capable of producing sputum were selected from 19 public hospitals in KZN. After informed consent, demographic and clinical data, and sputum samples were collected. Samples were processed for fluorescent microscopy, liquid culture and first and second-line anti-tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing. Results: There were a total of 2,964 inpatients where sampling was done. About 1,585 inpatients (53%) had a current cough and sufficient microbiological and clinical data for inclusion. Mycobacterium tuberculosis was isolated from 543 inpatients (34% of those tested and 18% of all inpatients). Eighty-four (15%) inpatients with TB were found to be MDR-TB infected and 16 (3%) had XDR-TB. There was no association between the prevalence of MDR-TB and proximity to CoSH. Among patients with microbiologically confirmed TB, MDR/XDR-TB was associated with male sex, a longer length of stay between hospital admission and date of sample collection, and current or previous TB treatment. Conclusions: One in five inpatients had potentially infectious TB. This is an underestimate since patients without current cough were not tested. MDR-TB was frequently observed and was found in nearly one in six active TB inpatients. While present at lower levels than the original outbreak report at CoSH, XDR-TB was detected in hospitals throughout KZN. The high burden of potentially infectious TB and confirmed MDR-TB, much of it undiagnosed, indicates a serious risk for nosocomial transmission and the need for intensified infection control within the inpatient setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine HIV prevalence, HIV testing behaviour, undiagnosed infection and risk factors for HIV positivity among a community sample of gay men in Scotland. Methods: Cross-sectional survey of gay and bisexual men attending commercial gay venues in Glasgow and Edinburgh, Scotland with voluntary anonymous HIV testing of oral fluid samples in 2011. A response rate of 65.2% was achieved (1515 participants). Results: HIV prevalence (4.8%, 95% confidence interval, CI 3.8% to 6.2%) remained stable compared to previous survey years (2005 and 2008) and the proportion of undiagnosed infection among HIV-positive men (25.4%) remained similar to that recorded in 2008. Half of the participants who provided an oral fluid sample stated that they had had an HIV test in the previous 12 months; this proportion is significantly higher when compared to previous study years (50.7% versus 33.8% in 2005, p<0.001). Older age (>25 years) was associated with HIV positivity (1.8% in those <25 versus 6.4% in older ages group) as was a sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis within the previous 12 months (adjusted odds ratio 2.13, 95% CI 1.09–4.14). There was no significant association between age and having an STI or age and any of the sexual behaviours recorded. Conclusion: HIV transmission continues to occur among gay and bisexual men in Scotland. Despite evidence of recent testing within the previous six months, suggesting a willingness to test, the current opt-out policy may have reached its limit with regards to maximising HIV test uptake. Novel strategies are required to improve regular testing opportunities and more frequent testing as there are implications for the use of other biomedical HIV interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pharyngeal bacteria are exposed to different sugar conditions depending on the diet of the child. We hypothesized that dietary factors such as daily intake of carbohydrates could be associated with pneumococcal carriage and the occurrence of otitis media in children. Methods: Our study design was a cross-sectional study among 1006 children attending child day care centers. Parents filled in a food frequency questionnaire. Oropharyngeal swabs were collected from each child. The primary outcome was the occurrence of pneumococcal carriage and the secondary outcome the number of acute otitis media episodes during life. Principal component analysis was used to group dietary intake into nine factors. The models were adjusted for age, gender of the child and educational level of the mother. Results: The dietary factor which included high consumption of sweet pastries and jam was associated with an increased risk of pneumococcal carriage (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.36, P-value 0.04). The factor including frequent consumption of fruit and berries was associated with a decreased risk of acute otitis (regression coefficient −0.51, 95% CI −0.98 to −0.03, P = 0.04). A high intake of consumption of sweets and snacks (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.80, P = 0.03) was associated with an increased risk of caries. Conclusions: Diet was associated with a risk of pneumococcal carriage and the occurrence of otitis media. Diet may thus be a modifiable risk factor for the occurrence of acute otitis media. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Countries face conflicting incentives to report infectious disease outbreaks. Reports of outbreaks can prompt other countries to impose trade and travel restrictions, which has the potential to discourage reporting. However, reports can also bring medical assistance to contain the outbreak, including access to vaccines. Methods: We compiled data on reports of meningococcal meningitis to the World Health Organization (WHO) from 54 African countries between 1966 and 2002, a period is marked by two events: first, a large outbreak reported from many countries in 1987 associated with the Hajj that resulted in more stringent requirements for meningitis vaccination among pilgrims; and second, another large outbreak in Sub-Saharan Africa in 1996 that led to a new international mechanism to supply vaccines to countries reporting a meningitis outbreak. We used fixed-effects regression modeling to statistically estimate the effect of external forcing events on the number of countries reporting cases of meningitis to WHO. Findings: We find that the Hajj vaccination requirements started in 1988 were associated with reduced reporting, especially among countries with relatively fewer cases reported between 1966 and 1979. After the vaccine provision mechanism was in place in 1996, reporting among countries that had previously not reported meningitis outbreaks increased. Interpretation: These results indicate that countries may respond to changing incentives to report outbreaks when they can do so. In the long term, these incentives are likely to be more important than surveillance assistance in prompt reporting of outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Better understanding the etiology-specific incidence of severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs) in resource-poor, rural settings will help further develop and prioritize prevention strategies. To address this gap in knowledge, we conducted a longitudinal study to estimate the incidence of SARIs among children in rural Bangladesh. Methods: During June through October 2010, we followed children aged <5 years in 67 villages to identify those with cough, difficulty breathing, age-specific tachypnea and/or danger signs in the community or admitted to the local hospital. A study physician collected clinical information and obtained nasopharyngeal swabs from all SARI cases and blood for bacterial culture from those hospitalized. We tested swabs for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza viruses, human metapneumoviruses, adenoviruses and human parainfluenza viruses 1–3 (HPIV) by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. We calculated virus-specific SARI incidence by dividing the number of new illnesses by the person-time each child contributed to the study. Results: We followed 12,850 children for 279,029 person-weeks (pw) and identified 141 SARI cases; 76 (54%) at their homes and 65 (46%) at the hospital. RSV was associated with 7.9 SARI hospitalizations per 100,000 pw, HPIV3 2.2 hospitalizations/100,000 pw, and influenza 1.1 hospitalizations/100,000 pw. Among non-hospitalized SARI cases, RSV was associated with 10.8 illnesses/100,000 pw, HPIV3 1.8/100,000 pw, influenza 1.4/100,000 pw, and adenoviruses 0.4/100,000 pw. Conclusion: Respiratory viruses, particularly RSV, were commonly associated with SARI among children. It may be useful to explore the value of investing in prevention strategies, such as handwashing and respiratory hygiene, to reduce respiratory infections among young children in such settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Hepatitis B and C virus, are emerging public health risks in China, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aims to assess the magnitude and risks of STIs among Chinese MSM. Methods: Chinese and English peer-reviewed articles were searched in five electronic databases from January 2000 to February 2013. Pooled prevalence estimates for each STI infection were calculated using meta-analysis. Infection risks of STIs in MSM, HIV-positive MSM and male sex workers (MSW) were obtained. This review followed the PRISMA guidelines and was registered in PROSPERO. Results: Eighty-eight articles (11 in English and 77 in Chinese) investigating 35,203 MSM in 28 provinces were included in this review. The prevalence levels of STIs among MSM were 6.3% (95% CI: 3.5–11.0%) for chlamydia, 1.5% (0.7–2.9%) for genital wart, 1.9% (1.3–2.7%) for gonorrhoea, 8.9% (7.8–10.2%) for hepatitis B (HBV), 1.2% (1.0–1.6%) for hepatitis C (HCV), 66.3% (57.4–74.1%) for human papillomavirus (HPV), 10.6% (6.2–17.6%) for herpes simplex virus (HSV-2) and 4.3% (3.2–5.8%) for Ureaplasma urealyticum. HIV-positive MSM have consistently higher odds of all these infections than the broader MSM population. As a subgroup of MSM, MSW were 2.5 (1.4–4.7), 5.7 (2.7–12.3), and 2.2 (1.4–3.7) times more likely to be infected with chlamydia, gonorrhoea and HCV than the broader MSM population, respectively. Conclusion: Prevalence levels of STIs among MSW were significantly higher than the broader MSM population. Co-infection of HIV and STIs were prevalent among Chinese MSM. Integration of HIV and STIs healthcare and surveillance systems is essential in providing effective HIV/STIs preventive measures and treatments. Trial Registration: PROSPERO No: CRD42013003721 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Human enteroviruses (HEVs) are common causes of acute meningitis. However, there is limited information about HEV associated with aseptic meningitis in mainland China because it has not been classified as a notifiable disease. Objectives: To characterize the HEVs associated with sporadic aseptic meningitis in China and to analyze their genetic features. Study Design: Cerebrospinal fluid, throat swab and feces specimens were collected from patients with aseptic meningitis in 5 sentinel hospitals in Shandong Province, China between 2006 and 2012. Virological investigation (viral isolation and molecular identification) and phylogenetic analysis were performed. Results: A total of 437 hospitalized patients were reported, and enteroviruses were detected in the specimens from 84 patients (19.2%) and were identified into 17 serotypes. The nine main serotypes were echovirus (E) 30 (27.4%), EV71 (13.1%), coxsackievirus (CV) B1 (9.5%), CVB3 (7.1%), CVB5 (7.1%), E6 (7.1%), E9 (7.1%), CVA9 (6.0%), and CVA10 (3.6%). Monthly distribution of isolated enteroviruses revealed a major peak in summer-fall season and a small second peak in winter constituted totally by EV71. Sequence analysis on VP1 coding region suggested Shandong strains had great genetic divergence with isolates from other countries. Conclusions: Multiple serotypes were responsible for enterovirus meningitis in mainland China. Aseptic meningitis caused by EV71 and coxsackie A viruses–the predominant pathogens for the hand, foot, and mouth disease–is currently an important concern in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) and HIV are two worldwide public health concerns. Co-infection of these two diseases has been considered to be a major obstacle for the global efforts in reaching the goals for the prevention of HIV and TB. Method: A comprehensive cross-sectional study was conducted to recruit TB patients in three provinces (Guangxi, Henan and Sichuan) of China between April 1 and September 30, 2010. Results: A total of 1,032 consenting TB patients attended this survey during the study period. Among the participants, 3.30% were HIV positive; about one quarter had opportunistic infections. Nearly half of the participants were 50 years or older, the majority were male and about one third were from minority ethnic groups. After adjusting for site, gender and areas of residence (using the partial/selective Model 1), former commercial plasma donors (adjusted OR [aOR] = 33.71) and injecting drug users(aOR = 15.86) were found to have significantly higher risk of being HIV-positivity. In addition, having extramarital sexual relationship (aOR = 307.16), being engaged in commercial sex (aOR = 252.37), suffering from opportunistic infections in the past six months (aOR = 2.79), losing 10% or more of the body weight in the past six months (aOR = 5.90) and having abnormal chest X-ray findings (aOR = 20.40) were all significantly associated with HIV seropositivity (each p<0.05). Conclusions: HIV prevalence among TB patients was high in the study areas of China. To control the dual epidemic, intervention strategies targeting socio-demographic and behavioral factors associated with higher risk of TB-HIV co-infection are urgently called for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To estimate the prevalence, incidence and determinants of herpes simplex type 2 (HSV-2) infection, and associations between HSV-2 and incident HIV infection, among women at higher risk for HIV infection in Beira, Mozambique. Methods: Between 2009 and 2012, 411 women aged 18–35 years at higher risk of HIV acquisition (defined as having had two or more sexual partners in the month prior to study enrollment) were enrolled and followed monthly for one year. At each study visit, they were counseled, interviewed, and tested for HSV-2 and HIV antibodies. Results: The HSV-2 prevalence at baseline was 60.6% (95% CI: 55.7% –65.4%). Increasing age (aOR = 2.94, 95% CI: 1.74–4.97, P<0.001 and aOR = 3.39, 95% CI: 1.58–7.29, P = 0.002 for age groups of 21–24 and 25–35 years old respectively), lower educational level (aOR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.09–3.02, P = 0.022), working full time (aOR = 8.56, 95% CI: 1.01–72.53, P = 0.049) and having practiced oral sex (aOR = 3.02, 95% CI: 1.16–7.89, P = 0.024) were strongly associated with prevalent HSV-2 infection. Thirty one participants seroconverted for HSV-2 (20.5%; 95% CI: 14.4% –27.9%) and 22 for HIV during the study period. The frequency of vaginal sex with a casual partner using a condom in the last 7 days was independently associated with incident HSV-2 infection (aOR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.05–3.47, P = 0.034). Positive HSV-2 serology at baseline was not significantly associated with risk of subsequent HIV seroconversion. Conclusions: Young women engaging in risky sexual behaviors in Beira had high prevalence and incidence of HSV-2 infection. Improved primary HSV-2 control strategies are urgently needed in Beira. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Influenza is a viral infection that can lead to serious complications and death(s) in vulnerable groups if not diagnosed and managed in a timely manner. This study was conducted to improve the accuracy of predicting influenza through various clinical and statistical models. Methodology: A retrospective cross sectional analysis was done on demographic and epidemiological data collected from March 2009 to March 2010. Patients were classified as ILI or SARI using WHO case definitions. Respiratory specimens were tested by RT-PCR. Clinical symptoms and co-morbid conditions were analyzed using binary logistic regression models. Results: In the first approach, analysis compared children (≤12) and adults (>12). Of 1,243 cases, 262 (21%) tested positive for A(H1N1)pdm09 and the proportion of children (≤12) and adults (>12) were 27% and 73% respectively. Four symptoms predicted influenza in children: fever (OR 2.849, 95% CI 1.931–8.722), cough (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.512–3.643), diarrhea (OR 2.100, 95% CI 2.040–3.25) and respiratory disease (OR 3.269, 95% CI 2.128–12.624). In adults, the strongest clinical predictor was fever (OR 2.80, 95% CI 1.025–3.135) followed by cough (OR 1.431, 95% CI 1.032–2.815). In the second instance, patients were separated into two groups: SARI 326 (26%) and ILI 917 (74%) cases. Male to female ratio was 1.41∶1.12 for SARI and 2∶1.5 for ILI cases. Chi-square test showed that fever, cough and sore throat were significant factors for A(H1N1)pdm09 infections (p = 0.008). Conclusion: Studies in a primary care setting should be encouraged focused on patients with influenza-like illness to develop sensitive clinical case definition that will help to improve accuracy of detecting influenza infections. Formulation of a standard “one size fits all” case definition that best correlates with influenza infections can help guide decisions for additional diagnostic testing and also discourage unjustified antibiotic prescription and usage in clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Community Health Workers (CHWs) have been utilised for various primary health care activities in different settings especially in developing countries. Usually when utilised in well defined terms, they have a positive impact. To support Kenya's policy on engagement of CHWs for tuberculosis (TB) control, there is need to demonstrate effects of utilising them. Objectives: This study assessed TB treatment adherence among patients who utilised CHWs in management of their illness in comparison to those who did not in urban and rural settings. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in selected health facilities using standard clinical records for each TB patient registered for treatment between 2005 to 2011. Qualitative data was collected from CHWs and health care providers. Results: The study assessed 2778 tuberculosis patients and among them 1499 (54%) utilized CHWs for their TB treatment. The urban setting in comparison with the rural setting contributed 70% of patients utilising the CHWs (p<0.001). Overall treatment adherence of the cohort was 79%. Categorizing by use of CHWs, adherence among patients who had utilized CHWs was 83% versus 68% among those that had not (p<0.001). In comparison between the rural and urban settings adherence was 76% and 81.5% (p<0.001) respectively and when categorized by use of CHWs it was 73% and 90% (p<0.001) for the rural and urban set ups respectively. Utilisation of CHWs remained significant in enhancing treatment adherence in the cohort with unadjusted and adjusted ORs; OR 2.25, (95% 1.86–2.73) p<0.001 and OR 1.98 (95% 1.51–2.5) p<0.001 respectively. It was most effective in the urban set-up, OR 2.65 (95% 2.02–3.48, p<0.001) in comparison to the rural set up, OR 0.74 (95% 0.56–0.97) p = 0.032. Conclusion: Utilisation of CHWs enhanced TB treatment adherence and the best effects were in the urban set-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Sex workers have endured a high burden of HIV infection in and across HIV epidemics. A comprehensive, community empowerment-based HIV prevention intervention emphasizes sex worker organization and mobilization to address HIV risk and often includes community-led peer education, condom distribution, and other activities. Meta-analysis of such interventions suggests a potential 51% reduction in inconsistent condom use. Mathematical modeling exercises provide theoretical insight into potential impacts of the intervention on HIV incidence and burden in settings where interventions have not yet been implemented. Methods: We used a deterministic model, Goals, to project the impact on HIV infections when the community empowerment interventions were scaled up among female sex workers in Kenya, Thailand, Brazil, and Ukraine. Modeling scenarios included expansion of the comprehensive community empowerment-based HIV prevention intervention from baseline coverage over a 5-year period (5–65% in Kenya and Ukraine; 10–70% in Thailand and Brazil), while other interventions were held at baseline levels. A second exercise increased the intervention coverage simultaneously with equitable access to ART for sex workers. Impacts on HIV outcomes among sex workers and adults are observed from 2012–2016 and, compared to status quo when all interventions are held constant. Results: Optimistic but feasible coverage (65%–70%) of the intervention demonstrated a range of impacts on HIV: 220 infections averted over 5 yrs. among sex workers in Thailand, 1,830 in Brazil, 2,220 in Ukraine, and 10,800 infections in Kenya. Impacts of the intervention for female sex workers extend to the adult population, cumulatively averting 730 infections in Thailand to 20,700 adult infections in Kenya. Impacts vary by country, influenced by HIV prevalence in risk groups, risk behaviors, intervention use, and population size. Discussion: A community empowerment approach to HIV prevention and access to universal ART for female sex workers is a promising human rights-based solution to overcoming the persistent burden of HIV among female sex workers across epidemic settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several studies conducted in Northeast Tanzania have documented declines in malaria transmission even before interventions were scaled up. One explanation for these reductions may be the changes in socio-environmental conditions associated with economic development, and in particular improvements in housing construction. Objective: This analysis seeks to identify (1) risk factors for malaria incidence among young children and (2) household and environmental factors associated with mosquito vector numbers collected in the child’s sleeping area. Both analyses focus on housing construction quality as a key determinant. Methodology: For 435 children enrolled in a larger trial of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants in the Korogwe District in Tanga, Northeastern Tanzania, detailed information on their dwelling characteristics were collected in the last year of the trial. Principal components analysis was used to construct an index of housing structure quality and converted to quintile units for regression analysis. Univariate and multivariate random effects negative binomial regressions were used to predict risk factors for child malaria incidence and the mean total number of indoor female Anopheles gambiae and funestus mosquitoes collected per household across three occasions. Findings: Building materials have substantially improved in Korogwe over time. Multivariate regressions showed that residing in rural areas (versus urban) increased malaria incidence rates by over three-fold and mean indoor female A. gambiae and funestus numbers by nearly two-fold. Compared to those residing in the lowest quality houses, children residing in the highest quality houses had one-third lower malaria incidence rates, even when wealth and rural residence were controlled for. Living in the highest quality houses reduced vector numbers while having cattle near the house significantly increased them. Conclusions: Results corroborate findings from other studies that show associations between malaria incidence and housing quality; associations were concentrated amongst the highest quality houses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Formulae used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) underestimate higher GFRs and have not been well-studied in HIV-infected (HIV(+)) people; we evaluated the relationships of HIV infection and known or potential risk factors for kidney disease with directly measured GFR and the presence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Design: Cross-sectional measurement of iohexol-based GFR (iGFR) in HIV(+) men (n = 455) receiving antiretroviral therapy, and HIV-uninfected (HIV(−)) men (n = 258) in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Methods: iGFR was calculated from disappearance of infused iohexol from plasma. Determinants of GFR and the presence of CKD were compared using iGFR and GFR estimated by the CKD-Epi equation (eGFR). Results: Median iGFR was higher among HIV(+) than HIV(−) men (109 vs. 106 ml/min/1.73 m2, respectively, p = .046), and was 7 ml/min higher than median eGFR. Mean iGFR was lower in men who were older, had chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, or had a history of AIDS. Low iGFR (≤90 ml/min/1.73 m2) was associated with these factors and with black race. Other than age, factors associated with low iGFR were not observed with low eGFR. CKD was more common in HIV(+) than HIV(−) men; predictors of CKD were similar using iGFR and eGFR. Conclusions: iGFR was higher than eGFR in this population of HIV-infected and -uninfected men who have sex with men. Presence of CKD was predicted equally well by iGFR and eGFR, but associations of chronic HCV infection and history of clinically-defined AIDS with mildly decreased GFR were seen only with iGFR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) infection is a serious public health problem. The third-generation extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs) have been used as the first-line treatment for NG infection for almost three decades. However, in recent years, treatment failures with the oral third-generation ESCs have been reported worldwide. This study aimed to estimate worldwide susceptibility rates of NG to cefixime and cefpodoxime by analyzing data from all relevant published studies. Methodology/principal findings: Two researchers independently searched five databases to identify studies on susceptibilities of NG to cefixime and cefpodoxime published between January 1, 1984 and October 15, 2012. A fixed-effect model was used to perform group analysis, and a χ2 test was employed to make subgroup comparison. Publication bias was assessed with the Begg rank correlation test. The pooled susceptibility rate of NG isolates to cefixime was 99.8% (95% CI: 99.7%–99.8%). The cefixime susceptibility rate of NG isolates from men was significantly lower than that from patients without information of gender or from men and women; the susceptibility rate of NG isolates from Asia was significantly lower than that from other continents; and the susceptibility rate of NG isolates collected before or during 2003 was significantly higher than that after 2003. The pooled susceptibility rate of NG isolates to cefpodoxime was 92.8% (95% CI: 89.0%–95.3%), which was lower than that to cefixime (92.8% vs. 99.8%, χ2 = 951.809, P<0.01). Conclusions: The susceptibility rate of NG isolates to cefixime varied with the gender of patients and geographical location from which NG isolates were collected, and declined with time. The reported lower susceptibility rate of NG isolates to cefixime and associated treatment failures, as well as the emergence of NG strains with cephalosporin resistance call for the more effective control of NG infection and the development of new antibiotics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is increasing interest in the role of asymptomatic infection in transmission of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). We studied the individual, household and environmental factors associated with asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infected individuals and VL. 7,538 individuals living in VL endemic villages in India and Nepal were divided into three mutually exclusive groups based on their VL history and Direct Agglutination Test (DAT) results in yearly serosurveys over a two-year period. The groups were (1) VL cases, (2) asymptomatically infected individuals (seroconverters) and (3) seronegative individuals. VL cases and seroconverters were compared to seronegative individuals in mixed logistic regression models. The risk of seroconversion and disease was significantly increased in individuals aged 14 to 24 years old and by the presence of other DAT-positive, asymptomatically infected individuals and VL cases in the house. The risk of seroconversion was higher in Indian than in Nepalese villages and it increased significantly with age, but not so for VL. This study demonstrates that, when risk factors for leishmanial infection and VL disease are evaluated in the same population, epidemiological determinants for asymptomatic infection and VL are largely similar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: American Black men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV, but the factors associated with this concentrated epidemic are not fully understood. Methods: Black MSM were enrolled in 6 US cities to evaluate a multi-component prevention intervention, with the current analysis focusing on the correlates of being newly diagnosed with HIV compared to being HIV-uninfected or previously diagnosed with HIV. Results: HPTN 061 enrolled 1553 Black MSM whose median age was 40; 30% self-identified exclusively as gay or homosexual, 29% exclusively as bisexual, and 3% as transgender. About 1/6th (16.2%) were previously diagnosed with HIV (PD); of 1263 participants without a prior HIV diagnosis 7.6% were newly diagnosed (ND). Compared to PD, ND Black MSM were younger (p<0.001); less likely to be living with a primary partner (p<0.001); more likely to be diagnosed with syphilis (p<0.001), rectal gonorrhea (p = 0.011) or chlamydia (p = 0.020). Compared to HIV-uninfected Black MSM, ND were more likely to report unprotected receptive anal intercourse (URAI) with a male partner in the last 6 months (p<0.001); and to be diagnosed with syphilis (p<0.001), rectal gonorrhea (p = 0.004), and urethral (p = 0.025) or rectal chlamydia (p<0.001). They were less likely to report female (p = 0.002) or transgender partners (p = 0.018). Multivariate logistic regression analyses found that ND Black MSM were significantly more likely than HIV-uninfected peers to be unemployed; have STIs, and engage in URAI. Almost half the men in each group were poor, had depressive symptoms, and expressed internalized homophobia. Conclusions: ND HIV-infected Black MSM were more likely to be unemployed, have bacterial STIs and engage in URAI than other Black MSM. Culturally-tailored programs that address economic disenfranchisement, increase engagement in care, screen for STIs, in conjunction with safer sex prevention interventions, may help to decrease further transmission in this heavily affected community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hepatitis E is caused by two viral genotype groups: human types and zoonotic types. Current understanding of the epidemiology of the zoonotic hepatitis E disease is founded largely on hospital-based studies. Methods: The epidemiology of hepatitis E was investigated in a community-based surveillance study conducted over one year in a rural city in eastern China with a registered population of 400,162. Results: The seroprevalence of hepatitis E in the cohort was 38%. The incidence of hepatitis E was 2.8/10,000 person-years. Totally 93.5% of the infections were attributed to genotype 4 and the rest, to genotype 1. Hepatitis E accounted for 28.4% (102/359) of the acute hepatitis cases and 68.9% (102/148) of the acute viral hepatitis cases in this area of China. The disease occurred sporadically with a higher prevalence during the cold season and in men, with the male-to-female ratio of 3∶1. Additionally, the incidence of hepatitis E increased with age. Hepatitis B virus carriers have an increased risk of contracting hepatitis E than the general population (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.5–4.2). Pre-existing immunity to hepatitis E lowered the risk (relative risk  = 0.34, 95% CI 0.21–0.55) and reduced the severity of the disease. Conclusions: Hepatitis E in the rural population of China is essentially that of a zoonosis due to the genotype 4 virus, the epidemiology of which is similar to that due to the other zoonotic genotype 3 virus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To explore the feasibility of offering HIV counseling and testing in community health centers (CHCs) and to provide evidence for the HIV/AIDS response in China. Methods: Forty-two CHCs were selected from the eight cities that participated in the study. Rapid testing was mainly provided to: clients seeking HIV testing and counseling (HTC); outpatients with high-risk behavior of contracting HIV; inpatients and outpatients of key departments. Aggregate administrative data were collected in CHCs and general hospitals and differences between the two categories were compared. Results: There were 23,609 patients who underwent HIV testing, accounting for 0.37% of all estimated clinic visits at the 42 sites (0.03%–4.35% by site). Overall, positive screening prevalence was 0.41% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.33%–0.49%, range 0.00%–0.98%), which is higher than in general hospitals (0.17%). The identification efficiency was 0.22% (95% CI: 0.16%–0.27%) in pilot CHCs, 3.5 times higher than in general hospitals (0.06%) (Chi square test = 95.196, p<0.001). The percentage of those receiving confirmatory tests among those who screened positive was slightly lower in CHCs (73.7%) than in general hospitals (80.1%) (Chi-square test = 17.472, p<0.001). Composition of clients mobilized for testing was consistent with the usage of basic public health and medical services in CHCs. The rate of patients testing HIV positive was higher among patients from key CHC departments (0.68%) than among high-risk Voluntary Counseling and Testing (VCT) clients (0.56%), those participating in outreach activities (0.41%), pregnant women (0.05%), and surgical patients (0.00%). Conclusion: This project demonstrates that providing HIV testing services for patients who exhibit high risk behavior has a high HIV case detection rate and that CHCs have the capacity to integrate HTC into routine work. It provides concrete evidence supporting the involvement of CHCs in the expansion of HIV/AIDS testing and case finding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We used population based infectious disease surveillance to characterize mortality rates in residents of an urban slum in Kenya. Methods: We analyzed biweekly household visit data collected two weeks before death for 749 cases who died during January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2010. We also selected controls matched by age, gender and having a biweekly household visit within two weeks before death of the corresponding case and compared the symptoms reported. Results: The overall mortality rate was 6.3 per 1,000 person years of observation (PYO) (females: 5.7; males: 6.8). Infant mortality rate was 50.2 per 1000 PYOs, and it was 15.1 per 1,000 PYOs for children <5 years old. Poisson regression indicates a significant decrease over time in overall mortality from (6.0 in 2007 to 4.0 in 2010 per 1000 PYOs; p<0.05) in persons ≥5 years old. This decrease was predominant in females (7.8 to 5.7 per 1000 PYOs; p<0.05). Two weeks before death, significantly higher prevalence for cough (OR = 4.7 [95% CI: 3.7–5.9]), fever (OR = 8.1 [95% CI: 6.1–10.7]), and diarrhea (OR = 9.1 [95% CI: 6.4–13.2]) were reported among participants who died (cases) when compared to participants who did not die (controls). Diarrhea followed by fever were independently associated with deaths (OR = 14.4 [95% CI: 7.1–29.2]), and (OR = 11.4 [95% CI: 6.7–19.4]) respectively. Conclusions: Despite accessible health care, mortality rates are high among people living in this urban slum; infectious disease syndromes appear to be linked to a substantial proportion of deaths. Rapid urbanization poses an increasing challenge in national efforts to improve health outcomes, including reducing childhood mortality rates. Targeting impoverished people in urban slums with effective interventions such as water and sanitation interventions are needed to achieve national objectives for health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]