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Developing appropriate risk messages during challenging situations like public health outbreaks is complicated. The focus of this paper is on how First Nations and Metis people in Manitoba, Canada, responded to the public health management of pandemic H1N1, using a focus group methodology (n = 23 focus groups). Focus group conversations explored participant reactions to messaging regarding the identification of H1N1 virus risk groups, the H1N1 vaccine and how priority groups to receive the vaccine were established. To better contextualize the intentions of public health professionals, key informant interviews (n = 20) were conducted with different health decision makers (e.g., public health officials, people responsible for communications, representatives from some First Nations and Metis self-governing organizations). While risk communication practice has improved, ‘one size’ messaging campaigns do not work effectively, particularly when communicating about who is most ‘at-risk’. Public health agencies need to pay more attention to the specific socio-economic, historical and cultural contexts of First Nations and Metis citizens when planning for, communicating and managing responses associated with pandemic outbreaks to better tailor both the messages and delivery. More attention is needed to directly engage First Nations and Metis communities in the development and dissemination of risk messaging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Water-associated Disease Index (WADI) was developed to identify and visualize vulnerability to different water-associated diseases by integrating a range of social and biophysical determinants in map format. In this study vulnerability is used to encompass conditions of exposure, susceptibility, and differential coping capacity to a water-associated health hazard. By assessing these conditions, the tool is designed to provide stakeholders with an integrated and long-term understanding of subnational vulnerabilities to water-associated disease and contribute to intervention strategies to reduce the burden of illness. The objective of this paper is to describe and validate the WADI tool by applying it to dengue. A systemic ecohealth framework that considers links between people, the environment and health was applied to identify secondary datasets, populating the index with components including climate conditions, land cover, education status and water use practices. Data were aggregated to create composite indicators of exposure and of susceptibility in a Geographic Information System (GIS). These indicators were weighted by their contribution to dengue vulnerability, and the output consisted of an overall index visualized in map format. The WADI was validated in this Malaysia case study, demonstrating a significant association with dengue rates at a sub-national level, and illustrating a range of factors that drive vulnerability to the disease within the country. The index output indicated high vulnerability to dengue in urban areas, especially in the capital Kuala Lumpur and surrounding region. However, in other regions, vulnerability to dengue varied throughout the year due to the influence of seasonal climate conditions, such as monsoon patterns. The WADI tool complements early warning models for water-associated disease by providing upstream information for planning prevention and control approaches, which increasingly require a comprehensive and geographically broad understanding of vulnerability for implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Community Health Workers (CHWs) have been utilised for various primary health care activities in different settings especially in developing countries. Usually when utilised in well defined terms, they have a positive impact. To support Kenya's policy on engagement of CHWs for tuberculosis (TB) control, there is need to demonstrate effects of utilising them. Objectives: This study assessed TB treatment adherence among patients who utilised CHWs in management of their illness in comparison to those who did not in urban and rural settings. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in selected health facilities using standard clinical records for each TB patient registered for treatment between 2005 to 2011. Qualitative data was collected from CHWs and health care providers. Results: The study assessed 2778 tuberculosis patients and among them 1499 (54%) utilized CHWs for their TB treatment. The urban setting in comparison with the rural setting contributed 70% of patients utilising the CHWs (p<0.001). Overall treatment adherence of the cohort was 79%. Categorizing by use of CHWs, adherence among patients who had utilized CHWs was 83% versus 68% among those that had not (p<0.001). In comparison between the rural and urban settings adherence was 76% and 81.5% (p<0.001) respectively and when categorized by use of CHWs it was 73% and 90% (p<0.001) for the rural and urban set ups respectively. Utilisation of CHWs remained significant in enhancing treatment adherence in the cohort with unadjusted and adjusted ORs; OR 2.25, (95% 1.86–2.73) p<0.001 and OR 1.98 (95% 1.51–2.5) p<0.001 respectively. It was most effective in the urban set-up, OR 2.65 (95% 2.02–3.48, p<0.001) in comparison to the rural set up, OR 0.74 (95% 0.56–0.97) p = 0.032. Conclusion: Utilisation of CHWs enhanced TB treatment adherence and the best effects were in the urban set-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Sex workers have endured a high burden of HIV infection in and across HIV epidemics. A comprehensive, community empowerment-based HIV prevention intervention emphasizes sex worker organization and mobilization to address HIV risk and often includes community-led peer education, condom distribution, and other activities. Meta-analysis of such interventions suggests a potential 51% reduction in inconsistent condom use. Mathematical modeling exercises provide theoretical insight into potential impacts of the intervention on HIV incidence and burden in settings where interventions have not yet been implemented. Methods: We used a deterministic model, Goals, to project the impact on HIV infections when the community empowerment interventions were scaled up among female sex workers in Kenya, Thailand, Brazil, and Ukraine. Modeling scenarios included expansion of the comprehensive community empowerment-based HIV prevention intervention from baseline coverage over a 5-year period (5–65% in Kenya and Ukraine; 10–70% in Thailand and Brazil), while other interventions were held at baseline levels. A second exercise increased the intervention coverage simultaneously with equitable access to ART for sex workers. Impacts on HIV outcomes among sex workers and adults are observed from 2012–2016 and, compared to status quo when all interventions are held constant. Results: Optimistic but feasible coverage (65%–70%) of the intervention demonstrated a range of impacts on HIV: 220 infections averted over 5 yrs. among sex workers in Thailand, 1,830 in Brazil, 2,220 in Ukraine, and 10,800 infections in Kenya. Impacts of the intervention for female sex workers extend to the adult population, cumulatively averting 730 infections in Thailand to 20,700 adult infections in Kenya. Impacts vary by country, influenced by HIV prevalence in risk groups, risk behaviors, intervention use, and population size. Discussion: A community empowerment approach to HIV prevention and access to universal ART for female sex workers is a promising human rights-based solution to overcoming the persistent burden of HIV among female sex workers across epidemic settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several studies conducted in Northeast Tanzania have documented declines in malaria transmission even before interventions were scaled up. One explanation for these reductions may be the changes in socio-environmental conditions associated with economic development, and in particular improvements in housing construction. Objective: This analysis seeks to identify (1) risk factors for malaria incidence among young children and (2) household and environmental factors associated with mosquito vector numbers collected in the child’s sleeping area. Both analyses focus on housing construction quality as a key determinant. Methodology: For 435 children enrolled in a larger trial of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants in the Korogwe District in Tanga, Northeastern Tanzania, detailed information on their dwelling characteristics were collected in the last year of the trial. Principal components analysis was used to construct an index of housing structure quality and converted to quintile units for regression analysis. Univariate and multivariate random effects negative binomial regressions were used to predict risk factors for child malaria incidence and the mean total number of indoor female Anopheles gambiae and funestus mosquitoes collected per household across three occasions. Findings: Building materials have substantially improved in Korogwe over time. Multivariate regressions showed that residing in rural areas (versus urban) increased malaria incidence rates by over three-fold and mean indoor female A. gambiae and funestus numbers by nearly two-fold. Compared to those residing in the lowest quality houses, children residing in the highest quality houses had one-third lower malaria incidence rates, even when wealth and rural residence were controlled for. Living in the highest quality houses reduced vector numbers while having cattle near the house significantly increased them. Conclusions: Results corroborate findings from other studies that show associations between malaria incidence and housing quality; associations were concentrated amongst the highest quality houses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We used population based infectious disease surveillance to characterize mortality rates in residents of an urban slum in Kenya. Methods: We analyzed biweekly household visit data collected two weeks before death for 749 cases who died during January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2010. We also selected controls matched by age, gender and having a biweekly household visit within two weeks before death of the corresponding case and compared the symptoms reported. Results: The overall mortality rate was 6.3 per 1,000 person years of observation (PYO) (females: 5.7; males: 6.8). Infant mortality rate was 50.2 per 1000 PYOs, and it was 15.1 per 1,000 PYOs for children <5 years old. Poisson regression indicates a significant decrease over time in overall mortality from (6.0 in 2007 to 4.0 in 2010 per 1000 PYOs; p<0.05) in persons ≥5 years old. This decrease was predominant in females (7.8 to 5.7 per 1000 PYOs; p<0.05). Two weeks before death, significantly higher prevalence for cough (OR = 4.7 [95% CI: 3.7–5.9]), fever (OR = 8.1 [95% CI: 6.1–10.7]), and diarrhea (OR = 9.1 [95% CI: 6.4–13.2]) were reported among participants who died (cases) when compared to participants who did not die (controls). Diarrhea followed by fever were independently associated with deaths (OR = 14.4 [95% CI: 7.1–29.2]), and (OR = 11.4 [95% CI: 6.7–19.4]) respectively. Conclusions: Despite accessible health care, mortality rates are high among people living in this urban slum; infectious disease syndromes appear to be linked to a substantial proportion of deaths. Rapid urbanization poses an increasing challenge in national efforts to improve health outcomes, including reducing childhood mortality rates. Targeting impoverished people in urban slums with effective interventions such as water and sanitation interventions are needed to achieve national objectives for health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is growing evidence that alcohol consumption is associated with increased risk of HIV infection. To determine factors associated with problem drinking, we analyzed data collected in two prospective cohorts of at-risk female food and recreational facility workers in northern Tanzania. Methods: We enrolled HIV seronegative women aged 18–44 years and employed in the towns of Geita, Kahama, Moshi, and Shinyanga. At enrolment, women were interviewed to obtain information about alcohol use, using CAGE and AUDIT screening scales, and risk factors for HIV infection. Blood and genital samples were collected for detection of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We characterized alcohol use, concordance, and agreement of the scales, and examined the associations between characteristics of participants and problem drinking as defined by both scales using logistic regression. Lastly, we assessed problem drinking as a risk factor for recent sexual behavior and prevalent STIs. Results: Among enrollees, 68% women reported ever drinking alcohol; of these 76% reported drinking alcohol in the past 12 months. The prevalence of problem drinking was 20% using CAGE and 13% using AUDIT. Overall concordance between the scales was 75.0% with a Kappa statistic of 0.58. After adjusting for age, independent factors associated with problem drinking, on both scales, were marital status, occupation, facility type, increasing number of lifetime sexual partners, and transactional sex in the past 12 months. In addition, women who were problem drinkers on either scale were more likely to report having ≥1 sexual partner (CAGE: aOR = 1.56, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.10–2.23; AUDIT: aOR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.34–3.00) and transactional sex (CAGE: aOR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.26–2.56; AUDIT: aOR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.04–2.18), in the past 3 months. Conclusion: These findings suggest that interventions to reduce problem drinking in this population may reduce high-risk sexual behaviors and contribute in lowering the risk of HIV infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health inequities in developing countries are difficult to eradicate because of limited resources. The neglect of adult mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a particular concern. Advances in data availability, software and analytic methods have created opportunities to address this challenge and tailor interventions to small areas. This study demonstrates how a generic framework can be applied to guide policy interventions to reduce adult mortality in high risk areas. The framework, therefore, incorporates the spatial clustering of adult mortality, estimates the impact of a range of determinants and quantifies the impact of their removal to ensure optimal returns on scarce resources. Methods: Data from a national cross-sectional survey in 2007 were used to illustrate the use of the generic framework for SSA and elsewhere. Adult mortality proportions were analyzed at four administrative levels and spatial analyses were used to identify areas with significant excess mortality. An ecological approach was then used to assess the relationship between mortality “hotspots” and various determinants. Population attributable fractions were calculated to quantify the reduction in mortality as a result of targeted removal of high-impact determinants. Results: Overall adult mortality rate was 145 per 10,000. Spatial disaggregation identified a highly non-random pattern and 67 significant high risk local municipalities were identified. The most prominent determinants of adult mortality included HIV antenatal sero-prevalence, low SES and lack of formal marital union status. The removal of the most attributable factors, based on local area prevalence, suggest that overall adult mortality could be potentially reduced by ∼90 deaths per 10,000. Conclusions: The innovative use of secondary data and advanced epidemiological techniques can be combined in a generic framework to identify and map mortality to the lowest administration level. The identification of high risk mortality determinants allows health authorities to tailor interventions at local level. This approach can be replicated elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Timely information about disease severity can be central to the detection and management of outbreaks of acute respiratory infections (ARI), including influenza. We asked if two resources: 1) free text, and 2) structured data from an electronic medical record (EMR) could complement each other to identify patients with pneumonia, an ARI severity landmark. Methods: A manual EMR review of 2747 outpatient ARI visits with associated chest imaging identified x-ray reports that could support the diagnosis of pneumonia (kappa score  = 0.88 (95% CI 0.82∶0.93)), along with attendant cases with Possible Pneumonia (adds either cough, sputum, fever/chills/night sweats, dyspnea or pleuritic chest pain) or with Pneumonia-in-Plan (adds pneumonia stated as a likely diagnosis by the provider). The x-ray reports served as a reference to develop a text classifier using machine-learning software that did not require custom coding. To identify pneumonia cases, the classifier was combined with EMR-based structured data and with text analyses aimed at ARI symptoms in clinical notes. Results: 370 reference cases with Possible Pneumonia and 250 with Pneumonia-in-Plan were identified. The x-ray report text classifier increased the positive predictive value of otherwise identical EMR-based case-detection algorithms by 20–70%, while retaining sensitivities of 58–75%. These performance gains were independent of the case definitions and of whether patients were admitted to the hospital or sent home. Text analyses seeking ARI symptoms in clinical notes did not add further value. Conclusion: Specialized software development is not required for automated text analyses to help identify pneumonia patients. These results begin to map an efficient, replicable strategy through which EMR data can be used to stratify ARI severity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP), the commonest opportunistic infection in HIV-infected patients in the developed world, is less commonly described in tropical and low and middle income countries (LMIC). We sought to investigate predictors of PCP in these settings. Design: Systematic review and meta-regression. Methods: Meta-regression of predictors of PCP diagnosis (33 studies). Qualitative and quantitative assessment of recorded CD4 counts, receipt of prophylaxis and antiretrovirals, sensitivity and specificity of clinical signs and symptoms for PCP, co-infection with other pathogens, and case fatality (117 studies). Results: The most significant predictor of PCP was per capita Gross Domestic Product, which showed strong linear association with odds of PCP diagnosis (p<0.0001). This was not explained by study design or diagnostic quality. Geographical area, population age, study setting and year of study also contributed to risk of PCP. Co-infection was common (444 episodes/1425 PCP cases), frequently with virulent organisms. The predictive value of symptoms, signs or simple tests in LMIC settings for diagnosis of PCP was poor. Case fatality was >30%; treatment was largely appropriate. Prophylaxis appeared to reduce the risk for development of PCP, however 24% of children with PCP were receiving prophylaxis. CD4 counts at presentation with PCP were usually <200×103/ml. Conclusions: There is a positive relationship between GDP and risk of PCP diagnosis. Although failure to diagnose infection in poorer countries may contribute to this, we also hypothesise that poverty exposes at-risk patients to a wide range of infections and that the relatively non-pathogenic P. jirovecii is therefore under-represented. As LMIC develop economically they eliminate the conditions underlying transmission of virulent infection: P. jirovecii, ubiquitous in all settings, then becomes a greater relative threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the risk factors of scrub typhus infection in Beijing, China, a case-control study was carried out. Cases (n = 56) were defined as persons who were diagnosed by PCR and serological method within three years. Three neighborhood control subjects were selected by matching for age and occupation. Living at the edge of the village, living in the houses near grassland, vegetable field or ditch, house yard without cement floor, piling weeds in the house or yard, all of these were risk factors for scrub typhus infection. Working in vegetable fields and hilly areas, and harvesting in autumn posed the highest risks, with odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 3.7 (1.1–11.9), 8.2 (1.4–49.5), and 17.2 (5.1–57.9), respectively. These results would be useful for the establishment of a detail control strategy for scrub typhus infection in Beijing, China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]