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A 19th century physician was crucial to the establishment of 2 medical specialties-anesthesiology and public health. Everyone whose interest in public health has increased in the last year will be amazed at Dr John Snow's career in anesthesiology. Those who recognize him as the first full-time physician anesthetist will be struck by his development of medical mapping during the Cholera Pandemic of 1848, resulting in one of the fundamental techniques of epidemiology and public health that has continued through today. Snow's accomplishments in anesthesiology and epidemiology reflected a concatenation of science, focus, and creativity. His training in the early 19th century integrated science, medicine, and his keen interest in respiratory physiology. His early clinical exposure to colliery workers in Newcastle was likely influenced by the earlier development of pneumatic medicine. He was committed to the notion that chemistry, especially the use of medicinal gases, would be transformative for medicine. Thus, he was "primed" when the news of the American anodyne ether reached London in 1846. When the third cholera pandemic reached London shortly thereafter, in the fall of 1848, his academic and practical understanding of gas chemistry and pharmacology, respiratory physiology, and anesthetic agents led him to question the popularly promulgated miasma-based theories of transmission. His methodical investigations, research, and perseverance were mirrored in his scholarly work, numerous presentations, and public advocacy. He articulated many scientific principles essential to the early practice of anesthesia-anesthetic potency, quantitative dosing of anesthetic agents, engineering principles required for conserving the latent heat of vaporization, and minimizing the contribution of anesthetic equipment to airway resistance. He moved easily and methodically between these worlds of physiology, chemistry, engineering, clinical medicine, and public health. In his role as the first medical epidemiologist, Snow understood the power of medical mapping and the graphic presentation of data. He was a pioneer in 2 nascent fields of medicine that were historically and remain contemporarily connected., Competing Interests: The author declares no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2021 International Anesthesia Research Society.)

Background The term 'long COVID' describes ongoing symptoms and conditions experienced by people infected with SARS-CoV-2. This paper illustrates how a public health approach was used to influence and inform the development of post-COVID services across two Integrated Care Systems (ICSs). Methods A literature review was conducted between October and December 2020 to identify prevalence estimates for long COVID. The prevalence estimates were applied to locally available data on the susceptible population to estimate the number of people with long COVID. They were also used to develop a dashboard to predict fluctuations in the number of people experiencing persistent symptoms over time. Results A substantial number of people in each ICS may have experienced persistent symptoms or complications as a result of COVID-19. In Lancashire and South Cumbria, it is estimated that 33 000 people may have experienced post-COVID-19 syndrome since the beginning of the pandemic, which will include respiratory or cardiovascular complications. Conclusions The findings have been valuable in informing early service developments, engaging with managers and clinicians, and supporting applications for funding at a local level. Continued attention to emergent evidence on this topic will be vital in refining estimates and supporting service planning in the longer term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a valuable tool for monitoring the circulation of COVID-19. However, while variations in population size are recognised as major sources of uncertainty, wastewater SARS-CoV-2 measurements are not routinely population-normalised. This paper aims to determine whether dynamic population normalisation significantly alters SARS-CoV-2 dynamics observed through wastewater monitoring, and whether it is beneficial or necessary to provide an understanding of COVID-19 epidemiology. Data from 394 sites in England are used, and normalisation is implemented based on ammoniacal nitrogen and orthophosphate concentrations. Raw and normalised wastewater SARS-CoV-2 metrics are evaluated at the site and spatially aggregated levels are compared against indicators of prevalence based on the Coronavirus Infection Survey and Test and Trace polymerase chain reaction test results. Normalisation is shown, on average, to have a limited impact on overall temporal trends. However, significant variability in the degree to which it affects local-level trends is observed. This is not evident from previous WBE studies focused on single sites and, critically, demonstrates that while the impact of normalisation on SARSCoV-2 trends is small on average, this may not always be the case. When averaged across many sites, normalisation strengthens the correlation between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 data and prevalence indicators; however, confidence in the improvement is low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Deaths and injuries related to fires are largely preventable events. In the UK, a plethora of community-based fire safety initiatives have been introduced over the last 25 years, often led by fire and rescue services, to address this issue. This paper focuses on one such initiative—home safety assessments (HSAs). Cheshire Fire and Rescue Service (in England) implemented a uniquely large-scale HSA intervention. This paper assesses its effectiveness. Methods The impact of HSAs was assessed in relation to three outcomes: accidental dwelling fires (ADFs), ADFs contained and injuries arising from ADFs. A two-period comparison in fire-related rates of incidences in Cheshire between 2002 and 2011 was implemented, using Poisson regression and adjusting for the national temporal trend using a control group comprising the 37 other English non-metropolitan fire-services. Results Significant reductions were observed in rates of ADFs [incidence rate ratios (IRR): 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74–0.83, P < 0.001, 2002/03–2007/08 versus 2008/09–2010/11] and associated injuries (IRR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.39–0.60, P < 0.001, 2002/03–2006/07 versus 2007/08–2010/11), but not in the proportion of fires contained to room of origin. Conclusions There is strong evidence to suggest that the intervention was successful in reducing domestic fires and related injuries. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Asthma is a global public health problem and the most common chronic disease among children. The factors associated with the condition are diverse, and environmental factors appear to be the leading cause of asthma exacerbation and its worsening disease burden. However, it remains unknown how changes in the environment affect asthma over time, and how temporal or environmental factors predict asthma events. The methodologies for forecasting asthma and other similar chronic conditions are not comprehensively documented anywhere to account for semistructured noncausal forecasting approaches. This paper highlights and discusses practical issues associated with asthma and the environment, and suggests possible approaches for developing decision-making tools in the form of semistructured black-box models, which is relatively new for asthma. Two statistical methods which can potentially be used in predictive modeling and health forecasting for both anticipated and peak events are suggested. Importantly, this paper attempts to bridge the areas of epidemiology, environmental medicine and exposure risks, and health services provision. The ideas discussed herein will support the development and implementation of early warning systems for chronic respiratory conditions in large populations, and ultimately lead to better decision-making tools for improving health service delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Increasing age is the biggest risk factor for dementia, of which Alzheimer's disease is the commonest cause. The pathological changes underpinning Alzheimer's disease are thought to develop at least a decade prior to the onset of symptoms. Molecular positron emission tomography and multi-modal magnetic resonance imaging allow key pathological processes underpinning cognitive impairment - including β-amyloid depostion, vascular disease, network breakdown and atrophy - to be assessed repeatedly and non-invasively. This enables potential determinants of dementia to be delineated earlier, and therefore opens a pre-symptomatic window where intervention may prevent the onset of cognitive symptoms.Methods/design: This paper outlines the clinical, cognitive and imaging protocol of "Insight 46", a neuroscience sub-study of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. This is one of the oldest British birth cohort studies and has followed 5362 individuals since their birth in England, Scotland and Wales during one week in March 1946. These individuals have been tracked in 24 waves of data collection incorporating a wide range of health and functional measures, including repeat measures of cognitive function. Now aged 71 years, a small fraction have overt dementia, but estimates suggest that ~1/3 of individuals in this age group may be in the preclinical stages of Alzheimer's disease. Insight 46 is recruiting 500 study members selected at random from those who attended a clinical visit at 60-64 years and on whom relevant lifecourse data are available. We describe the sub-study design and protocol which involves a prospective two time-point (0, 24 month) data collection covering clinical, neuropsychological, β-amyloid positron emission tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, biomarker and genetic information. Data collection started in 2015 (age 69) and aims to be completed in 2019 (age 73).Discussion: Through the integration of data on the socioeconomic environment and on physical, psychological and cognitive function from 0 to 69 years, coupled with genetics, structural and molecular imaging, and intensive cognitive and neurological phenotyping, Insight 46 aims to identify lifetime factors which influence brain health and cognitive ageing, with particular focus on Alzheimer's disease and cerebrovascular disease. This will provide an evidence base for the rational design of disease-modifying trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large-scale multiple surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation in England and Wales since the early 1990s. Changes to the statistical algorithm at the heart of the system were proposed and the purpose of this paper is to compare two new algorithms with the original algorithm. Test data to evaluate performance are created from weekly counts of the number of cases of each of more than 2000 diseases over a twenty-year period. The time series of each disease is separated into one series giving the baseline (background) disease incidence and a second series giving disease outbreaks. One series is shifted forward by twelve months and the two are then recombined, giving a realistic series in which it is known where outbreaks have been added. The metrics used to evaluate performance include a scoring rule that appropriately balances sensitivity against specificity and is sensitive to variation in probabilities near 1. In the context of disease surveillance, a scoring rule can be adapted to reflect the size of outbreaks and this was done. Results indicate that the two new algorithms are comparable to each other and better than the algorithm they were designed to replace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smoking has been identified as the second greatest risk factor for global death and disability and has impacts on the oral cavity from aesthetic changes to fatal diseases such as oral cancer. The paper presents a secondary analysis of the National Adult Dental Health Survey (2009). The analysis used descriptive statistics, bivariate analyses and logistic regression models to report the self-reported oral health status and dental attendance of smokers and non-smokers in England. Of the 9,657 participants, 21% reported they were currently smoking. When compared with smokers; non-smokers were more likely to report ‘good oral health’ (75% versus 57% respectively, p<0.05). Smokers were twice as likely to attend the dentist symptomatically (OR = 2.27, CI = 2.02–2.55) compared with non-smoker regardless the deprivation status. Smokers were more likely to attend symptomatically in the most deprived quintiles (OR = 1.99, CI = 1.57–2.52) and perceive they had poorer oral health (OR = 1.77, CI = 1.42–2.20). The present research is consistent with earlier sub-national research and should be considered when planning early diagnosis and management strategies for smoking-related conditions, considering the potential impact dental teams might have on smoking rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Enhanced Matching System (EMS) is a probabilistic record linkage program developed by the tuberculosis section at Public Health England to match data for individuals across two datasets. This paper outlines how EMS works and investigates its accuracy for linkage across public health datasets. Methods: EMS is a configurable Microsoft SQL Server database program. To examine the accuracy of EMS, two public health databases were matched using National Health Service (NHS) numbers as a gold standard unique identifier. Probabilistic linkage was then performed on the same two datasets without inclusion of NHS number. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to examine the effect of varying matching process parameters. Results: Exact matching using NHS number between two datasets (containing 5931 and 1759 records) identified 1071 matched pairs. EMS probabilistic linkage identified 1068 record pairs. The sensitivity of probabilistic linkage was calculated as 99.5% (95%CI: 98.9, 99.8), specificity 100.0% (95%CI: 99.9, 100.0), positive predictive value 99.8% (95%CI: 99.3, 100.0), and negative predictive value 99.9% (95%CI: 99.8, 100.0). Probabilistic matching was most accurate when including address variables and using the automatically generated threshold for determining links with manual review. Conclusion: With the establishment of national electronic datasets across health and social care, EMS enables previously unanswerable research questions to be tackled with confidence in the accuracy of the linkage process. In scenarios where a small sample is being matched into a very large database (such as national records of hospital attendance) then, compared to results presented in this analysis, the positive predictive value or sensitivity may drop according to the prevalence of matches between databases. Despite this possible limitation, probabilistic linkage has great potential to be used where exact matching using a common identifier is not possible, including in low-income settings, and for vulnerable groups such as homeless populations, where the absence of unique identifiers and lower data quality has historically hindered the ability to identify individuals across datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Women are on average diagnosed with diabetes mellitus at later age than men but have higher mortality. As the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus is primarily based on HbA1c, the use of a non-specific reference range and cut point for diabetes mellitus that does not account for gender differences in diabetes could potentially lead to underdiagnosis of diabetes mellitus in women and missed opportunities for intervention. We investigated whether a contributing factor to the later diagnosis in women may be a difference in distribution of HbA1c in premenopausal women versus men of the same age by comparing HbA1c values in men and women across multiple sites in the UK. Methods: We analysed the HbA1c levels of 146,907 individuals who underwent single testing only and had HbA1c ≤ 50 mmol/mol between 2012 and 2019 in one laboratory (cohort 1). This was replicated in six laboratories with 938,678 individuals tested between 2019 and 2021 (cohort 2). Results: In cohort 1, women < 50 years old had an HbA1c distribution markedly lower than that in men by a mean of 1.6 mmol/mol (p < 0.0001), while the difference in the distribution of HbA1c for individuals aged ≥ 50 years was less pronounced (mean difference 0.9 mmol/mol, p < 0.0001). For individuals under the age of 50, HbA1c in women lagged by up to 10 years compared to men. Similar findings were found in cohort 2. We estimated an additional 17% (n = 34,953) of undiagnosed women aged < 50 years in England and Wales could be reclassified to have diabetes mellitus, which may contribute to up to 64% of the difference in mortality rates between men/women with diabetes mellitus aged 16–50 years. Conclusion: The HbA1c cut point for diagnosis of diabetes mellitus may need to be re-evaluated in women under the age of 50 years. Early identification of diabetes mellitus in women has the potential to improve women's health outcomes in the longer term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Smoking is a risk factor for some autoimmune diseases, but its association with autoimmune hepatitis remains unknown. We conducted a population-based matched case–control study to examine the association between tobacco smoking and the risk of autoimmune hepatitis in England. Patients and Methods: From the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked Hospital Episode Statistics, 2005– 2017, we included 987 cases diagnosed with autoimmune hepatitis after age 18 years and up to 10 frequency-matched population controls per case. We used multiple logistic regression to estimate the odds ratio of autoimmune hepatitis in ever-smokers vs never-smokers, adjusting for sex, age, general practice, calendar time of registration with the general practice, and socioeconomic status. Results: The autoimmune hepatitis cases were more likely to be ever-smokers than the controls (44% vs 37%). The ever-smokers had an increased risk of autoimmune hepatitis compared with the never-smokers (adjusted odds ratio = 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.03– 1.39). Conclusion: Smoking was associated with an increased risk of autoimmune hepatitis. Plain Language Summary: Autoimmune hepatitis is a chronic liver disease associated with genetic variants and environmental exposures, but the causes of autoimmune hepatitis remain unknown. Using registry data, we evaluated the association between tobacco smoking and the risk for autoimmune hepatitis. We found that tobacco smoking was associated with an increased risk of autoimmune hepatitis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chickenpox is a common childhood disease caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV). VZV vaccination is not part of the UK childhood immunisation programme, but its potential inclusion is regularly assessed. It is therefore important to understand the ongoing burden of VZV in the community to inform vaccine policy decisions. General practitioner (GP) chickenpox consultations were studied from 1 September 2016 to 9 December 2022. Over the study period, the mean weekly chickenpox consultation rate per 100,000 population in England was 3.4, with a regular peak occurring between weeks 13 and 15. Overall, rates decreased over time, from a mean weekly rate of 5.5 in 2017 to 4.2 in 2019. The highest mean weekly rates were among children aged 1–4 years. There was no typical epidemic peak during the COVID-19 pandemic, but in 2022, rates were proportionally higher among children aged < 1 year old compared to pre-pandemic years. Chickenpox GP consultation rates decreased in England, continuing a longer-term decline in the community. The COVID-19 pandemic impacted rates, likely caused by the introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The lasting impact of the interruption of typical disease transmission remains to be seen, but it is important to monitor the chickenpox burden to inform decisions on vaccine programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To extend existing research on the US health disadvantage relative to Europe by studying the relationships of disability with age from midlife to old age in the US and four European regions (England/Northern and Western Europe/Southern Europe/Eastern Europe) including their wealth-related differences, using a flexible statistical approach to model the age-functions. Methods: We used data from three studies on aging, with nationally representative samples of adults aged 50 to 85 from 15 countries (N = 48225): the US-American Health and Retirement Study (HRS), the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Outcomes were mobility limitations and limitations in instrumental activities of daily living. We applied fractional polynomials of age to determine best fitting functional forms for age on disability in each region, while controlling for socio-demographic characteristics and important risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, smoking, physical inactivity). Results: Findings showed high levels of disability in the US with small age-related changes between 50 and 85. Levels of disability were generally lower in Eastern Europe, followed by England and Southern Europe and lowest in Northern and Western Europe. In these latter countries age-related increases of disability, though, were steeper than in the US, especially in Eastern and Southern Europe. For all countries and at all ages, disability levels were higher among adults with low wealth compared to those with high wealth, with largest wealth-related differences among those in early old age in the USA. Conclusions: This paper illustrates considerable variations of disability and its relationship with age. It supports the hypothesis that less developed social policies and more pronounced socioeconomic inequalities are related to higher levels of disability and an earlier onset of disability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Care homes are a common place of death for older adults, especially those with complex health needs or dementia. Representative, internationally comparable data on care home facilities and their residents is needed to monitor health and wellbeing in this population. Identification and collection of data from care homes can be challenging and often underreported. This paper draws on the experiences of the PACE study, a cross sectional mortality follow back study conducted in six European countries. Results: Multiple challenges were encountered in creating a sampling framework and contacting, recruiting and retaining care homes in the PACE study. Recruiting a randomly identified, representative cohort from a stratified sampling framework was problematic, as was engaging with care homes to ensure high response rates. Variation in the funding of care homes across the six countries involved in the study may explain the additional challenges encountered in England. Awareness of the challenges encountered in England in implementing an international study in care homes can inform the design and implementation of future studies within care homes. Further discussion is needed to determine the barriers and facilitators to conducting research in care homes, and how this is shaped by the focus of the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Although long-term trends in local labour market conditions are likely to influence health, few studies have assessed whether this is so. This paper examines whether (1) trends in local employment rates have relevance for mortality and morbidity outcomes in England and (2) trends are stronger predictors of these outcomes than employment rates measured at one point in time. Methods Using latent class growth models, local areas were classified into eight groups following distinct trends in employment rates between 1981 and 2008. Areas were also categorised in 'octile' groups by rank of employment rates in 2001. These area groupings were linked to a sample of 207 959 individuals from the Office of National Statistics Longitudinal Study. Associations between area groupings and risk of all-cause mortality and of reporting a limiting long-term illness at the end of the period were measured using logistic regression. Models were adjusted for individuals' socio-demographic characteristics measured in 1981 and for their residential mobility between 1981 and 2001. Results Compared to areas with continuously high employment rates over the period, risk of mortality and morbidity was higher in areas with persistently low or declining employment rates. Findings suggest that longterm trends in local employment rates are useful as predictors of mortality and morbidity differences. These are not so clearly distinguished by only considering employment rates at one point in time. Conclusion Poor health outcomes are associated with long-term economic disadvantage in some areas of England, reflected in employment rates, underlining the importance of efforts to improve health in areas with especially 'deep-seated' deprivation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the authors propose a method for estimating the incidence of heroin use by adjusting reported numbers of heroin users visiting drug treatment agencies for the time lag between onset of heroin use and first treatment request (lag distribution). The adjusted incidence is relative, since it represents the number of individuals beginning heroin use in each year whose cases will be reported within 8 years of starting use. Users with longer lag times or whose cases are never reported are excluded. Utilizing data from southeastern England (1991-1998), the authors analyzed the effects of covariates (sex, age group, ethnic group, route of consumption, and year of onset of drug use) on the lag distribution. Trends in the adjusted incidence of heroin use were very different for injectors and noninjectors: Incidence among injectors seemed to be stable, while in noninjectors it increased twofold between 1991 and 1996-1997. These results must be interpreted cautiously, especially in relation to the wider context of underlying trends in the population. Potential biases derive from underreporting and from changes in the proportion of heroin users in treatment. The lag correction method adds substantially to the value of routine treatment data, at least for heroin use, and is potentially the best method for obtaining estimates of incidence. Am J Epidemiol 2001;153:632-41. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite their widespread use, the impact of commissioners' policies for body mass index (BMI) for access to elective surgery is not clear. Policy use varies by locality, and there are concerns that these policies may worsen health inequalities. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of policies for BMI on access to hip replacement surgery in England. Methods: A natural experimental study using interrupted time series and difference-in-differences analysis. We used National Joint Registry data for 480,364 patients who had primary hip replacement surgery in England between January 2009 and December 2019. Clinical commissioning group policies introduced before June 2018 to alter access to hip replacement for patients with overweight or obesity were considered the intervention. The main outcome measures were rate of surgery and patient demographics (BMI, index of multiple deprivation, independently funded surgery) over time. Results: Commissioning localities which introduced a policy had higher surgery rates at baseline than those which did not. Rates of surgery fell after policy introduction, whereas rates rose in localities with no policy. 'Strict' policies mandating a BMI threshold for access to surgery were associated with the sharpest fall in rates (trend change of − 1.39 operations per 100,000 population aged 40 + per quarter-year, 95% confidence interval − 1.81 to − 0.97, P < 0.001). Localities with BMI policies have higher proportions of independently funded surgery and more affluent patients receiving surgery, indicating increasing health inequalities. Policies enforcing extra waiting time before surgery were associated with worsening mean pre-operative symptom scores and rising obesity. Conclusions: Commissioners and policymakers should be aware of the counterproductive effects of BMI policies on patient outcomes and inequalities. We recommend that BMI policies involving extra waiting time or mandatory BMI thresholds are no longer used to reduce access to hip replacement surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Few studies describe the epidemiology of childhood acute kidney injury (AKI) nationally. Laboratories in England are required to issue electronic (e-)alerts for AKI based on serum creatinine changes. This study describes a national cohort of children who received an AKI alert and their clinical course. Methods A cross-section of AKI episodes from 2017 are described. Hospital record linkage enabled description of AKI-associated hospitalizations including length of stay (LOS) and critical care requirement. Risk associations with critical care (hospitalized cohort) and 30-day mortality (total cohort) were examined using multivariable logistic regression. Results In 2017, 7788 children (52% male, median age 4.4 years, interquartile range 0.9–11.5 years) experienced 8927 AKI episodes; 8% occurred during birth admissions. Of 5582 children with hospitalized AKI, 25% required critical care. In children experiencing an AKI episode unrelated to their birth admission, Asian ethnicity, young (<1 year) or old (16–<18 years) age (reference 1–<5 years), and high peak AKI stage had higher odds of critical care. LOS was higher with peak AKI stage, irrespective of critical care admission. Overall, 30-day mortality rate was 3% (n =  251); youngest and oldest age groups, hospital-acquired AKI, higher peak stage and critical care requirement had higher odds of death. For children experiencing AKI alerts during their birth admission, no association was seen between higher peak AKI stage and critical care admission. Conclusions Risk associations for adverse AKI outcomes differed among children according to AKI type and whether hospitalization was related to birth. Understanding the factors driving AKI development and progression may help inform interventions to minimize morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) have faced considerable pressures during the COVID-19 pandemic. For some, this has resulted in mental health distress and disorder. Although interventions have sought to support HCWs, few have been evaluated. Aims: We aimed to determine the effectiveness of the 'Foundations' application (app) on general (non-psychotic) psychiatric morbidity. Method: We conducted a multicentre randomised controlled trial of HCWs at 16 NHS trusts (trial registration number: EudraCT: 2021-001279-18). Participants were randomly assigned to the app or wait-list control group. Measures were assessed at baseline, after 4 and 8 weeks. The primary outcome was general psychiatric morbidity (using the General Health Questionnaire). Secondary outcomes included: well-being; presenteeism; anxiety; depression and insomnia. The primary analysis used mixed-effects multivariable regression, presented as adjusted mean differences (aMD). Results: Between 22 March and 3 June 2021, 1002 participants were randomised (500:502), and 894 (89.2%) followed-up. The sample was predominately women (754/894, 84.3%), with a mean age of 44⋅3 years (interquartile range (IQR) 34–53). Participants randomised to the app had a reduction in psychiatric morbidity symptoms (aMD = −1.39, 95% CI −2.05 to −0.74), improvement in well-being (aMD = 0⋅54, 95% CI 0⋅20 to 0⋅89) and reduction in insomnia (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0⋅36, 95% CI 0⋅21 to 0⋅60). No other significant findings were found, or adverse events reported. Conclusions: The app had an effect in reducing psychiatric morbidity symptoms in a sample of HCWs. Given it is scalable with no adverse effects, the app may be used as part of an organisation's tiered staff support package. Further evidence is needed on long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have affected the welfare and health of dogs due to surges in adoptions and purchases, changes in the physical and mental health and financial status of dog owners, changes in dogs' lifestyle and routines and limited access to veterinary care. The aims of this study were to investigate whether COVID-19 restrictions were associated with differences in Labrador retrievers' lifestyle, routine care, insurance status, illness incidence or veterinary attendance with an illness, who were living in England and enrolled in Dogslife, an owner-based cohort study. Longitudinal questionnaire data from Dogslife that was relevant to the dates between the 23rd of March and the 4th of July 2020, during COVID-19 restrictions in England, were compared to data between the same dates in previous years from 2011 to 2019 using mixed regression models and adjusted chi-squared tests. Results: Compared with previous years (March 23rd to July 4th, 2010 to 2019), the COVID-19 restrictions study period (March 23rd to July 4th 2020) was associated with owners reporting increases in their dogs' exercise and worming and decreases in insurance, titbit-feeding and vaccination. Odds of owners reporting that their dogs had an episode of coughing (0.20, 95% CI: 0.04–0.92) and that they took their dogs to a veterinarian with an episode of any illness (0.58, 95% CI: 0.45–0.76) were lower during the COVID-19 restrictions compared to before. During the restrictions period, owners were less likely to report that they took their dogs to a veterinarian with certain other illnesses, compared to before this period. Conclusions: Dogslife provided a unique opportunity to study prospective questionnaire data from owners already enrolled on a longitudinal cohort study. This approach minimised bias associated with recalling events prior to the pandemic and allowed a wider population of dogs to be studied than is available from primary care data. Distinctive insights into owners' decision making about their dogs' healthcare were offered. There are clear implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions for the lifestyle, care and health of dogs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aim: Exposure to lead can harm a child's health, including damage to the nervous system, delayed growth, hearing loss, and many other adverse health effects, as well as implications for social, economic, educational and social well-being. Lead exposure in children is still a concern and cases require public health management to find the exposure source and interrupt the exposure pathway. Housing characteristics can indicate the presence of lead-contaminated paint and leaded water supply pipes. We aimed to explore the relationship between housing characteristics and elevated blood lead concentration (BLC) in children in England.Methods: We used a retrospective cohort design and included all cases of lead exposure in children reported to the UK Health Security Agency between 2014 and 2020 via surveillance. A case was a child aged under 16 years, resident in England, BLC of ≥ 0.48 μmol/L (10 µg/dL) and referred for public health management. We collected case demographic details and housing characteristics (age and type). We explored associations between elevated BLC and risk factors, using generalised linear mixed effects models and compared cases' housing type to that expected nationally.Results: Two hundred and sixty-six out of 290 cases met the case definition. There was no difference in BLCs between genders, age groups, deprivation, and housing type. After adjusting for reporting source, housing age and type, cases residing in housing built pre-1976 had a BLC of 0.32 (95%CI 0.02, 0.63) µmols/L (6.63 (95%CI 0.42, 13.0) µg/dL) higher than cases living in housing built after this time. Cases were 1.68 times more likely to be living in terraced housing (housing adjoined to one another) than other children and less likely to live in apartments and detached properties.Conclusion: This study suggests an association between housing characteristics and BLC in children. Housing age and type may act as a proxy for lead exposure risk through exposure to leaded paint, lead water pipes, and lead contaminated dust from indoor and outdoor sources. Public health action should consider targeting families more at risk in older housing by raising awareness of the potential presence of lead pipes and paint. Interventions should include working with wider stakeholders including other housing and environmental professionals, the private sector, as well as parents and carers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In England, the emergence the more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant Alpha (B.1.1.7) led to a third national lockdown from December 2020, including restricted attendance at schools. Nurseries, however, remained fully open. COVID-19 outbreaks (≥ 2 laboratory-confirmed cases within 14 days) in nurseries were investigated to assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and cumulative incidence in staff and children over a three-month period when community SARS-CoV-2 infections rates were high and the Alpha variant was spreading rapidly across England.Methods: This was a cross-sectional national investigation of COVID-19 outbreaks in nurseries across England. Nurseries reporting a COVID-19 outbreak to PHE between November 2020 and January 2021 were requested to complete a questionnaire about their outbreak.Results: Three hundred and twenty-four nurseries, comprising 1% (324/32,852) of nurseries in England, reported a COVID-19 outbreak. Of the 315 (97%) nurseries contacted, 173 (55%) reported 1,657 SARS-CoV-2 cases, including 510 (31%) children and 1,147 (69%) staff. A child was the index case in 45 outbreaks (26%) and staff in 125 (72%) outbreaks. Overall, children had an incidence rate of 3.50% (95%CI, 3.21-3.81%) and was similar irrespective of whether the index case was a child (3.55%; 95%CI, 3.01-4.19%) or staff (3.44%; 95%CI, 3.10-3.82%). Among staff, cumulative incidence was lower if the index case was a child (26.28%; 95%CI, 23.54-29.21%%) compared to a staff member (32.98%; 95%CI, 31.19-34.82%), with the highest cumulative incidence when the index case was also a staff member (37.52%; 95%CI, 35.39-39.70%). Compared to November 2020, outbreak sizes and cumulative incidence was higher in January 2021, when the Alpha variant predominated. Nationally, SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in < 5 year-olds remained low and followed trends in older age-groups, increasing during December 2020 and declining thereafter.Conclusions: In this cross-sectional study of COVID-19 outbreaks in nurseries, one in three staff were affected compared to one in thirty children. There was some evidence of increased transmissibility and higher cumulative incidence associated with the Alpha variant, highlighting the importance of maintaining a low level of community infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Psychiatric mother and baby units (MBUs) are recommended for severe perinatal mental illness, but effectiveness compared with other forms of acute care remains unknown.Aims: We hypothesised that women admitted to MBUs would be less likely to be readmitted to acute care in the 12 months following discharge, compared with women admitted to non-MBU acute care (generic psychiatric wards or crisis resolution teams (CRTs)).Method: Quasi-experimental cohort study of women accessing acute psychiatric care up to 1 year postpartum in 42 healthcare organisations across England and Wales. Primary outcome was readmission within 12 months post-discharge. Propensity scores were used to account for systematic differences between MBU and non-MBU participants. Secondary outcomes included assessment of cost-effectiveness, experience of services, unmet needs, perceived bonding, observed mother-infant interaction quality and safeguarding outcome.Results: Of 279 women, 108 (39%) received MBU care, 62 (22%) generic ward care and 109 (39%) CRT care only. The MBU group (n = 105) had similar readmission rates to the non-MBU group (n = 158) (aOR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.86-1.04, P = 0.29; an absolute difference of -5%, 95% CI -14 to 4%). Service satisfaction was significantly higher among women accessing MBUs compared with non-MBUs; no significant differences were observed for any other secondary outcomes.Conclusions: We found no significant differences in rates of readmission, but MBU advantage might have been masked by residual confounders; readmission will also depend on quality of care after discharge and type of illness. Future studies should attempt to identify the effective ingredients of specialist perinatal in-patient and community care to improve outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of threshold logistic modelling, an innovative approach in identifying thresholds and risk scores in the context of population antibiotic use associated with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) incidence rates in hospitals. The study also aimed to assess the impact of exceeding those thresholds that resulted in increased MRSA rates. The study was undertaken in a 700-bed hospital in England between January 2015 and December 2021 (84 monthly observations). By employing the threshold logistic modelling approach, we: (i) determined the cut-off percentile value of MRSA incidence that defines a critical level of MRSA; (ii) identified thresholds for fluoroquinolone and co-amoxiclav use that would accelerate MRSA incidence rates and increase the probability of reaching critical incidence levels; (iii) enabled a better understanding of the effect of antibiotic use on the probability of reaching a critical level of resistant pathogen incidence; (iv) developed a near real-time performance monitoring feedback system; (v) provided risk scores and alert signals for antibiotic use, with the ability to inform hospital policies, and control MRSA incidence; and (vi) provided recommendations and an example for the management of pathogen incidence in hospitals. Threshold logistic models can help hospitals determine quantitative targets for antibiotic usage and can also inform effective antimicrobial stewardship to control resistance in hospitals. Studies should work toward implementing and evaluating the proposed approach prospectively, with the aim of determining the best counter-measures to mitigate the risk of increased resistant pathogen incidence in hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In response to the outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in West Africa in 2014 and evidence of spread to other countries, pre-entry screening was introduced by PHE at five major ports of entry in the England. Methods All passengers that entered the England via the five ports returning from Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leonne were required to complete a Health Assessment Form and have their temperature taken. The numbers, characteristics and outcomes of these passengers were analysed. Results Between 14 October 2014 and 13 October 2015, a total of 12 648 passengers from affected countries had been screened. The majority of passengers were assessed as having no direct contact with EVD cases or high-risk events (12 069, 95.4%), although 535 (4.2%) passengers were assessed as requiring public health follow-up. In total, 39 passengers were referred directly to secondary care, although none were diagnosed with EVD. One high-risk passenger was later referred to secondary care and diagnosed with EVD. Conclusions Collection of these screening data enabled timely monitoring of the numbers and characteristics of passengers screened for EVD, facilitated resourcing decisions and acted as a mechanism to inform passengers of the necessary public health actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: little is known about changes in the quality of medical care for older adults over time.Objective: to assess changes in technical quality of care over 6 years, and associations with participants' characteristics.Design: a national cohort survey covering RAND Corporation-derived quality indicators (QIs) in face-to-face structured interviews in participants' households.Participants: a total of 5,114 people aged 50 or more in four waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.Methods: the percentage achievement of 24 QIs in 10 general medical and geriatric clinical conditions was calculated for each time point, and associations with participants' characteristics were estimated using logistic regression.Results: participants were eligible for 21,220 QIs. QI achievement for geriatric conditions (cataract, falls, osteoarthritis and osteoporosis) was 41% [95% confidence interval (CI): 38–44] in 2004–05 and 38% (36–39) in 2010–11. Achievement for general medical conditions (depression, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, pain and cerebrovascular disease) improved from 75% (73–77) in 2004–05 to 80% (79–82) in 2010–11. Achievement ranged from 89% for cerebrovascular disease to 34% for osteoarthritis. Overall achievement was lower for participants who were men, wealthier, infrequent alcohol drinkers, not obese and living alone.Conclusion: substantial system-level shortfalls in quality of care for geriatric conditions persisted over 6 years, with relatively small and inconsistent variations in quality by participants' characteristics. The relative lack of variation by participants' characteristics suggests that quality improvement interventions may be more effective when directed at healthcare delivery systems rather than individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infection with the Cryptosporidium parasite causes over 4000 cases of diagnosed illness (cryptosporidiosis) in England and Wales each year. The incidence of sporadic disease has not been sufficiently established, and how frequently this arises from contact with other infected people is not well documented. This project aimed to explore potential transmission in the home and attempt to identify asymptomatic infections, which might play a role in transmission. Risk factors and characteristics associated with spread of infection in the home were described including any differences between Cryptosporidium species.Methods: The study identified cryptosporidiosis cases from North West England and Wales over a year and invited them and their household to take part. Each household was sent a study pack containing study information and a questionnaire, and stool sample kits to provide samples from consenting household members. Cryptosporidium-positive stool samples, identified by immunofluorescence microscopy, were characterised using molecular methods to help describe any patterns of transmission. Characteristics of households with and without additional cases were described, and compared using odds ratios (OR) and a multivariable logistic regression identified independent risk factors for household transmission. Data collection ran for one year, beginning in September 2018 with an initial pilot phase.Results: We enrolled 128 index cases and their households. Additional illness occurred in over a quarter of homes, each reporting an average of two additional cases. The majority of these were undiagnosed and unreported to surveillance. This burden was even greater in households where the index case was infected with C. hominis versus C. parvum, or the index case was under five years old, with mums and siblings most at risk of secondary infection. Only having an index case of C. hominis was independently associated with transmission in the multivariable model (OR 4.46; p = 0.01).Conclusions: Cryptosporidium was a considerable burden in the home. At-risk homes were those where the index was less than five years old and/or infected with C. hominis. Of particular risk were female caregivers and siblings. Hygiene advice should be specifically directed here. This work provides evidence for humans as sources of C. hominis infection and that person-person is a key pathway. We recommend that all stools submitted for the investigation of gastrointestinal pathogens are tested for Cryptosporidium to better capture cases, inclusion of speciation data in routine surveillance, and the consideration of specific clinical advice on prevention for high-risk homes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article summarizes a study evaluating the relation between high ambient temperatures with the changes in the risk of myocardial infarction on an hourly timescale. Paper-adds including data at an hourly temporal resolution from 11 conurbations in England and Wales showed that higher temperatures were associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction, with reductions in risk at longer lags being consistent with heat, in the six hours after exposure, above a threshold of 20°C.

AimsIt is important to know how far smokers' attempts at using nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) for smoking ‘harm reduction’ (reducing harm from continued smoking) promote or undermine cessation. To contribute to that goal, this study aimed to assess whether smokers' reports of smoking reduction (SR) and the use of NRT for SR and temporary abstinence (TA) predicted subsequent attempts to quit smoking and smoking status in a population sample. It also examined whether use of NRT for SR or TA was associated with reduced cigarette consumption compared with SR without NRT and non-use of NRT for TA.MethodData were collected from 15 539 smokers involved in the Smoking Toolkit Study, a series of monthly household surveys of adults aged 16+; of whom 23% (n=3149) completed a 6-month follow-up questionnaire. At baseline, participants were asked whether they were currently using NRT for SR or TA. They were also asked for demographic information and daily cigarette consumption. At 6-month follow-up, data on attempts to quit smoking and smoking status were collected.ResultsNRT use for SR and TA prospectively predicted attempts to quit smoking (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.01 and OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.38 for SR and TA respectively) and abstinence (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.16 and OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.51 to 3.34 for SR and TA respectively) at 6-months follow-up. Use of NRT for SR or TA was associated with a small reduction in cigarette consumption (two cigarettes per day) compared with SR without NRT or non-use of NRT for TA.ConclusionsThe use of NRT for SR or TA appears to be positively associated with subsequent attempts to quit smoking and abstinence among smokers in England, despite very little apparent effect on daily cigarette consumption. With replication, these findings support the potential benefit of using NRT for harm reduction but primarily as a means of promoting cessation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Disturbed sleep is common throughout the community and is associated with an increase in daytime sleepiness, both of which, in turn are associated with an increased risk of ischaemic vascular disease. The hypothesis that sleep disturbances are predictive of dementia, and in particular vascular dementia was tested in a large community-based cohort of older men. Methods A questionnaire on sleep disturbances was administered to 1986 men aged 55-69 years in the Caerphilly Cohort Study and 10 years later the men were examined clinically for evidence of dementia or cognitive impairment with no dementia (CIND). Findings Approximately 20% of the men reported disturbed sleep and 30% reported 'severe' daytime sleepiness. Ten years later 1225 men (75% of the surviving men in the cohort) were tested and 268 (22%) were found to be cognitively impaired with 93 (7.6%) showing clear evidence of dementia and the remaining 175 (14.3%) showing evidence of CIND. After adjustment for possible confounding, including cognitive function and the taking of sleeping tablets at baseline, sleep disturbances appeared to be predictive of dementia and CIND of vascular origin, while there was no suggestion of prediction of non-vascular cognitive impairment by sleep. Prediction of vascular dementia appeared to be particularly strong for daytime sleepiness, with an adjusted OR of 4.44 (95% CI 2.05 to 9.61). Further adjustments for psychological distress at baseline reduced the size of the relationships, but the ORs remain large, consistent with a direct positive effect of sleep disturbance on vascular dementia. Interpretation Sleep disturbances, and in particular severe daytime sleepiness, appear to be strongly predictive of vascular dementia, but have no predictive power for non vascular dementia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To investigate parental smoking behaviours between England and Scotland after the smoke-free legislation in Scotland came into effect in 2006 and examine inequalities in maternal smoking behaviours between countries. Methods 5954 white mothers and 3757 fathers resident in England and 1522 white mothers and 904 fathers resident in Scotland who participated in the Millennium Cohort Study (a prospective nationally representative cohort study) when the cohort child was age 9 months (before legislation) and 5 years (after legislation in Scotland but not in England). The main outcome measures were smoking at 9 months and 5 years, quitting smoking by 5 years, starting smoking by 5 years. Results In England and Scotland approximately 30% of parents reported smoking at 9 months with only a slight decrease in smoking at 5 years. There were no differences between countries in parental smoking after the smoke-free legislation in Scotland came into effect, taking into account prior smoking levels. Light smokers (1-9 cigarettes/day) from Scotland were less likely to quit by 5 years than those from England, but there were no differences between countries among heavy smokers (10+ cigarettes/day). Non-smoking mothers from Scotland (6.2%) were less likely to start smoking by 5 years than mothers from England (7.3%). Mothers from more disadvantaged circumstances in both countries were more likely to report that they smoked or started smoking. In England quitting was also socially patterned, but in Scotland, after the legislation was introduced, the gradients in quitting smoking were flatter across social groups. Conclusions Smoking behaviours among parents with young children remained relatively stable, highlighting the need for additional tobacco control efforts to support smoking cessation. However, the smoke-free legislation does not appear to widen health inequalities and may even help reduce them by encouraging quitting across socioeconomic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Objectives: Research evidence suggests that exposure to ambient air pollutants can adversely affect the growth and development of the foetus and infant survival. Much less is known regarding the potential for an association between black smoke air pollution and stillbirth risk. This potential association was examined using data from the historical cohort UK Particulate Matter and Perinatal Events Research (PAMPER) study. Methods: Using data from paper-based neonatal records from the two major maternity hospitals in Newcastle upon Tyne (UK), a birth record database of all singletons born during 1961–1992 to mothers resident in the city was constructed. Weekly black smoke levels were obtained from routine data recorded at 20 air pollution monitoring stations over the study period. A two-stage statistical modelling strategy was used, incorporating temporally and spatially varying covariates to estimate black smoke exposure during each trimester and for the whole pregnancy period for each individual pregnancy. Conditional logistic regression models, with stratification on year of birth, were used to assess potential associations between black smoke exposures in pregnancy and stillbirth risk. Results: The PAMPER database consists of 90,537 births, between 1962 and 1992, with complete gestational age and residential address information, of which 812 were stillborn. There was no association between black smoke exposures in any trimester or across whole pregnancy and risk of stillbirth. Adjustment for potential confounders did not alter these results. Conclusions: While black smoke in pregnancy is likely to be related to other pregnancy outcomes, our findings do not suggest that black smoke air pollution exposure during pregnancy increases the risk of stillbirth. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Estimates of the number of prevalent human immunodeficiency virus infections are used in England and Wales to monitor development of the human immunodeficiency virus–acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic and for planning purposes. The population is split into risk groups, and estimates of risk group size and of risk group prevalence and diagnosis rates are combined to derive estimates of the number of undiagnosed infections and of the overall number of infected individuals. In traditional approaches, each risk group size, prevalence or diagnosis rate parameter must be informed by just one summary statistic. Yet a rich array of surveillance and other data is available, providing information on parameters and on functions of parameters, and raising the possibility of inconsistency between sources of evidence in some parts of the parameter space. We develop a Bayesian framework for synthesis of surveillance and other information, implemented through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The sources of data are found to be inconsistent under their accepted interpretation, but the inconsistencies can be resolved by introducing additional ‘bias adjustment’ parameters. The best-fitting model incorporates a hierarchical structure to spread information more evenly over the parameter space. We suggest that multiparameter evidence synthesis opens new avenues in epidemiology based on the coherent summary of available data, assessment of consistency and bias modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There are over 80,000 people imprisoned in England and Wales in 117 prisons. The management of the COVID-19 pandemic presents particular challenges in this setting where confined, crowded, and poorly ventilated conditions facilitate the rapid spread of infectious diseases. Objective: The COVID-19 in Prison Study aims to examine the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in prisons in England in order to inform public health policy and practice during the pandemic and recovery. The primary objective is to estimate the proportion of positive tests of SARS-CoV-2 infection among residents and staff within selected prisons. The secondary objectives include estimating the incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection and examining how the proportion of positive tests and the incidence rate vary among individual, institutional, and system level factors. Methods: Phase 1 comprises a repeated panel survey of prison residents and staff in a representative sample of 28 prisons across England. All residents and staff in the study prisons are eligible for inclusion. Participants will be tested for SARS-CoV-2 using a nasopharyngeal swab twice (6 weeks apart). Staff will also be tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Phase 2 focuses on SARS-CoV-2 infection in prisons with recognized COVID-19 outbreaks. Any prison in England will be eligible to participate if an outbreak is declared. In 3 outbreak prisons, all participating staff and residents will be tested for SARS-CoV-2 antigens at the following 3 timepoints: as soon as possible after the outbreak is declared (day 0), 7 days later (day 7), and at day 28. They will be swabbed twice (a nasal swab for lateral flow device testing and a nasopharyngeal swab for polymerase chain reaction testing). Testing will be done by external contractors. Data will also be collected on individual, prison level, and community factors. Data will be stored and handled at the University of Southampton and Public Health England. Summary statistics will summarize the prison and participant characteristics. For the primary objective, simple proportions of individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and incidence rates will be calculated. Linear regression will examine the individual, institutional, system, and community factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection within prisons. Results: The UK Government's Department for Health and Social Care funds the study. Data collection started on July 20, 2020, and will end on May 31, 2021. As of May 2021, we had enrolled 4192 staff members and 6496 imprisoned people in the study. Data analysis has started, and we expect to publish the initial findings in summer/autumn 2021. The main ethical consideration is the inclusion of prisoners, who are vulnerable participants. Conclusions: This study will provide unique data to inform the public health management of SARS-CoV-2 in prisons. Its findings will be of relevance to health policy makers and practitioners working in prisons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To explore the reasons for the 40-fold variation in diagnostic testing for genital Chlamydia trachomatis by general practices.Methods: A qualitative study with focus groups. We randomly selected urban and rural high and low testing practices served by Bristol, Hereford, and Gloucester microbiology laboratories. Open questions were asked about the investigation of C trachomatis in men and women in different clinical contexts.Results: The high and low testing practices did not differ in their age/sex make-up or by deprivation indices. There were major differences between high and low chlamydia testing practices. Low testing practices knew very little about the epidemiology and presentation of genital chlamydia infection and did not consider it in their differential diagnosis of genitourinary symptoms until patients had consulted several times. Low testers were less aware that chlamydia was usually asymptomatic, thought it was an inner city problem, and had poor knowledge of how to take diagnostic specimens. High testing practices either had a general practitioner with an interest in sexual health or a practice nurse who had completed specialist training in family planning. High testing practices were more cognizant of the symptoms and signs of chlamydia and always considered it in their differential diagnosis of genitourinary symptoms, including patients attending family planning clinics.Conclusions: Any programme to increase chlamydia testing in primary care must be accompanied by an education and awareness programme especially targeted at low testing practices. This will need to include information about the benefits of testing and who, when, and how to test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since the end of January 2020, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has been responsible for a global health crisis. In England a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been introduced throughout the pandemic, including guidelines on healthcare attendance (for example, promoting remote consultations), increased handwashing and social distancing. These interventions are likely to have impacted the incidence of non-COVID-19 conditions as well as healthcare seeking behaviour. Syndromic Surveillance Systems offer the ability to monitor trends in healthcare usage over time.Methods: This study describes the indirect impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation using a range of syndromic indicators including eye conditions, mumps, fractures, herpes zoster and cardiac conditions. Data from the syndromic surveillance systems monitored by Public Health England were used to describe the number of contacts with NHS 111, general practitioner (GP) In Hours (GPIH) and Out-of-Hours (GPOOH), Ambulance and Emergency Department (ED) services over comparable periods before and during the pandemic.Results: The peak pandemic period in 2020 (weeks 13-20), compared to the same period in 2019, displayed on average a 12% increase in NHS 111 calls, an 11% decrease in GPOOH consultations, and a 49% decrease in ED attendances. In the GP In Hours system, conjunctivitis consultations decreased by 64% and mumps consultations by 31%. There was a 49% reduction in attendance at EDs for fractures, and there was no longer any weekend increase in ED fracture attendances, with similar attendance patterns observed across each day of the week. There was a decrease in the number of ED attendances with diagnoses of myocardial ischaemia.Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic drastically impacted healthcare utilisation for non-COVID-19 conditions, due to a combination of a probable decrease in incidence of certain conditions and changes in healthcare seeking behaviour. Syndromic surveillance has a valuable role in describing and understanding these trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of sunscreens is recommended to limit the impact of sun exposure on the skin. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between sunscreen sales and melanoma in 4 different countries with diverse sunscreen regulations. Data from publicly available databases were examined for Sweden, England, Australia, and the USA from 1999 to 2018. The association between incidence of melanoma and sunscreen sales was estimated using a generalized estimating equation, and modelling was used to predict melanoma cases. Incidence of melanoma was positively associated with sunscreen sales in England, Australia, and the USA, and negatively associated with sunscreen sales in Sweden. Growth rates in melanoma cases of 0.42%, 16.7%, 19.1% and 12.2% were predicted for Sweden, England, Australia, and the USA, respectively. The differences observed between England, Australia, and the USA, on the one hand, and Sweden, on the other hand, are consistent with the adoption of strong regulations requiring the use of ultraviolet A blocking agents in sunscreens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Knowledge gaps remain regarding SARS‐CoV‐2 transmission on flights. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to estimate risk of acquiring symptomatic SARS‐CoV‐2 on aircraft, to inform contact tracing and infection control efforts. Methods: We identified co‐passengers of infectious passengers on 18 England‐bound flights from European cities up to 12/03/2020, using manifests received for contact tracing. Infectious passengers were laboratory‐confirmed cases with symptom onset from 7 days before to 2 days after the flight. Possible aircraft‐acquired cases were laboratory‐confirmed with onset 3‐14 days post‐flight with no known non‐flight exposure. Manifests was merged with the national case management dataset (identifying cases, onset dates, contact tracing status) and the national COVID‐19 linelist. Contact tracing notes were reviewed to identify non‐flight exposures. We calculated attack rates (ARs) among all co‐passengers and within subgroups, including by distance from infectious cases and number of infectious cases on‐board. Results: There were 55 infectious passengers and 2313 co‐passengers, including 2221 flight‐only contacts. Five possible aircraft‐acquired cases were identified; ARs of 0.2% (95%CI 0.1‐0.5) among all flight‐only contacts and 3.8% (95%CI 1.3‐10.6) among contact‐traced flight‐only contacts sat within a two‐seat radius. The AR among 92 co‐travellers with known non‐flight exposure to infectious cases was 13.0% (95%CI 7.6%‐21.4%). There were insufficient numbers to assess differences between subgroups. Conclusion: We conclude that risk of symptomatic COVID‐19 due to transmission on short to medium‐haul flights is low, and recommend prioritising contact‐tracing of close contacts and co‐travellers where resources are limited. Further research on risk on aircraft is encouraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: During the first wave of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic in England in 2009, morbidity and mortality were higher in patients of South Asian (Indian, Pakistani or Bangladeshi) ethnic minority groups. Objectives: This study aims to provide insights in the representation of this group among reported cases, indicating susceptibility and exposure. Methods: All laboratory‐confirmed cases including basic demographic and limited clinical information that were reported to the FluZone surveillance system between April and October 2009 were retrieved. Missing ethnicity data were imputed using the previously developed and validated South Asian Names and Group Recognition Algorithm (SANGRA). Differences between ethnic groups were calculated using chi‐square, log‐rank and t tests and rate ratios. Geographic clustering was compared using Ripley's K functions. Results: SANGRA identified 2447 (28%) of the total of 8748 reported cases as South Asian. South Asian cases were younger (P <.001), more often male (P =.002) and more often from deprived areas (P <.001) than cases of other ethnic groups. Time between onset of symptoms and laboratory sampling was longer in this group (P <.001), and they were less often advised antiviral treatment (P <.001), however, declined treatment less. The highest cumulative incidence was seen in the West Midlands region (32.7/10 000), London (7.0/10 000) and East of England region (5.7/10 000). Conclusions: People of South Asian ethnic groups were disproportionally affected by the first wave of the influenza pandemic in England in 2009. The findings presented contribute to further understanding of demographic, socioeconomic and ethnic factors of the outbreak and inform future influenza preparedness to ensure appropriate prevention and care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Due to cardiovascular safety concerns, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) recommended new contraindications and changes to product information for diclofenac across Europe in 2013. This study aims to measure their impact among targeted populations. Method: Quarterly interrupted time series regression (ITS) analyses of diclofenac initiation among cohorts with contraindications (congestive cardiac failure [CHF], ischaemic heart disease [IHD], peripheral arterial disease [PAD], cerebrovascular disease [CVD]) and cautions (hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes) from Denmark, the Netherlands, England and Scotland. Results: The regulatory action was associated with significant immediate absolute reductions in diclofenac initiation in all countries for IHD (Denmark −0.08%, 95%CI −0.13, −0.03; England −0.09%, 95%CI −0.13 to −0.06%; the Netherlands −1.84%, 95%CI −2.51 to −1.17%; Scotland −0.34%, 95%CI −0.38 to −0.30%), PAD and hyperlipidaemia, the Netherlands, England and Scotland for hypertension and diabetes, and England and Scotland for CHF and CVD. Post‐intervention there was a significant negative trend in diclofenac initiation in the Netherlands for IHD (−0.12%, 95%CI −0.19 to −0.04), PAD (−0.13%, 95%CI −0.22 to −0.05), hypertension, hyperlipidaemia and diabetes, and in Scotland for CHF (−0.01%, 95%CI −0.02 to −0.007%), IHD (−0.017, 95%CI −0.02, −0.01%), PAD and hypertension. In England, diclofenac initiation rates fell less steeply. In Denmark changes were more strongly associated with the earlier EMA 2012 regulatory action. Conclusion: Although significant reductions in diclofenac initiation occurred, patients with contraindications continued to be prescribed diclofenac, the extent of which varied by country and target condition. Understanding reasons for such variation may help to guide the design or dissemination of future safety warnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives Fibromyalgia is a complex, debilitating, multifactorial condition that can be difficult to manage. Recommended treatments are usually delivered in outpatient settings; evidence suggests that significant inpatient care occurs. We describe the scale and cost of inpatient care with a primary diagnostic code of fibromyalgia within the English National Health Service. Methods We conducted a cohort-level observational study of all patients admitted to hospital due to a diagnosis of fibromyalgia, between 1 April 2014 and 31 March 2018 inclusive, in the National Health Service in England. We used data from Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care to study: the age and sex of patients admitted, number and costs of admissions, length of stay, procedures undertaken, class and type of admission, and distribution of admissions across clinical commissioning groups. Results A total of 24 295 inpatient admissions, costing £20 220 576, occurred during the 4-year study period. Most patients were women (89%) with peak age of admission of between 45 and 55 years. Most admissions were elective (92%). A number of invasive therapeutic procedures took place, including a continuous i.v. infusion (35%). There was marked geographical variation in the prevalence and cost of inpatient fibromyalgia care delivered across the country, even after accounting for clinical commissioning group size. Conclusions Many patients are admitted for treatment of their fibromyalgia and given invasive procedures for which there is weak evidence, with significant variation in practice and cost across the country. This highlights the need to identify areas of resource use that can be rationalized and diverted to provide more effective, evidence-based treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prescribing high doses of methotrexate increases the potentially fatal risk of toxicity. To minimise risk, it is recommended that only 2.5 mg tablets are used.Aim: To describe trends in GP prescribing of methotrexate over time; the harm associated with methotrexate errors at a national level; ascertain variation between practices and clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) in their implementation of the safety guidance; and map current variations at CCG and practice level.Design and Setting: A retrospective cohort study of English GP prescribing data (August 2010-April 2018), and data acquired via freedom of information (FOI) requests.Method: The main outcome measures were: variation in ratio of non-adherent/adherent prescribing, geographically and over time, between practices and CCGs; and description of responses to FOI requests.Results: Of 7349 practices in England, 1689 prescribed both 2.5 mg and 10 mg tablets to individual patients in 2017, breaching national guidance. In April 2018, 697 practices (≥90th percentile) prescribed >14.3% of all methotrexate as 10 mg tablets, likewise breaching national guidance. The 66 practices at ≥99th percentile gave >52.4% of all prescribed methotrexate in the form of 10 mg tablets. The prescribing of 10 mg tablets fell during the study period, with 10 mg tablets as a proportion of all prescribed methotrexate tablets falling from 9.1% to 3.4%. Twenty-one deaths caused by methotrexate poisoning were reported from 1993-2017 in England and Wales.Conclusion: The prevalence of unsafe methotrexate prescribing has reduced but remains common, with substantial variation between practices and CCGs. The authors recommend investment in better strategies around implementation. As 21 deaths that occurred from 1993-2017 in England and Wales were attributed to methotrexate poisoning, the coroners' reports for these deaths should be reviewed to identify recurring themes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In elite football (soccer), periodic health examination (PHE) could provide prognostic factors to predict injury risk. Objective: To develop and internally validate a prognostic model to predict individualised indirect (non-contact) muscle injury (IMI) risk during a season in elite footballers, only using PHE-derived candidate prognostic factors. Methods: Routinely collected preseason PHE and injury data were used from 152 players over 5 seasons (1st July 2013 to 19th May 2018). Ten candidate prognostic factors (12 parameters) were included in model development. Multiple imputation was used to handle missing values. The outcome was any time-loss, index indirect muscle injury (I-IMI) affecting the lower extremity. A full logistic regression model was fitted, and a parsimonious model developed using backward-selection to remove factors that exceeded a threshold that was equivalent to Akaike's Information Criterion (alpha 0.157). Predictive performance was assessed through calibration, discrimination and decision-curve analysis, averaged across all imputed datasets. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping and adjusted for overfitting. Results: During 317 participant-seasons, 138 I-IMIs were recorded. The parsimonious model included only age and frequency of previous IMIs; apparent calibration was perfect, but discrimination was modest (C-index = 0.641, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.580 to 0.703), with clinical utility evident between risk thresholds of 37–71%. After validation and overfitting adjustment, performance deteriorated (C-index = 0.589 (95% CI = 0.528 to 0.651); calibration-in-the-large = − 0.009 (95% CI = − 0.239 to 0.239); calibration slope = 0.718 (95% CI = 0.275 to 1.161)). Conclusion: The selected PHE data were insufficient prognostic factors from which to develop a useful model for predicting IMI risk in elite footballers. Further research should prioritise identifying novel prognostic factors to improve future risk prediction models in this field. Trial registration: NCT03782389 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The recent emergence of strains belonging to the meningococcal serogroup W (MenW) sequence type-11 clonal complex and descending from the South American sub-lineage (MenW:cc11/SA) has caused significant shifts in the epidemiology of meningococcal disease worldwide. Although MenW:cc11/SA is deemed highly transmissible and invasive, its epidemiological characteristics have not yet been quantified.Methods: We designed a mathematical model of MenW transmission, carriage, and infection to analyze the recent epidemiology of invasive disease caused by MenW:cc11/SA strains and by other MenW strains in England and in France. We confronted that model with age-stratified incidence data to estimate the transmissibility and the invasiveness of MenW:cc11/SA in England, using the data in France as a validation cohort.Results: During the epidemiological years 2010/2011-2014/2015 in England, the transmissibility of MenW:cc11/SA relative to that of other MenW strains was estimated at 1.20 (95% confidence interval, 1.15 to 1.26). The relative invasiveness of MenW:cc11/SA was also found to exceed unity and to increase with age, with estimates ranging from 4.0 (1.6 to 9.7) in children aged 0-4 years to 20 (6 to 34) in adults aged ≥ 25 years. In France, the model calibrated in England correctly reproduced the early increase of MenW:cc11/SA disease during 2012/2013-2016/2017. Most recent surveillance data, however, indicated a decline in MenW:cc11/SA disease. In both countries, our results suggested that the transmission of MenW:cc11/SA carriage possibly started several months before the first reported case of MenW:cc11/SA disease.Discussion: Our results confirm earlier suggestions about the transmission and the pathogenic potential of MenW:cc11/SA. The main limitation of our study was the lack of age-specific MenW carriage data to confront our model predictions with. Furthermore, the lesser model fit to the most recent data in France suggests that the predictive accuracy of our model might be limited to 5-6 years.Conclusions: Our study provides the first estimates of the transmissibility and of the invasiveness of MenW:cc11/SA. Such estimates may be useful to anticipate changes in the epidemiology of MenW and to adapt vaccination strategies. Our results also point to silent, prolonged transmission of MenW:cc11/SA carriage, with potentially important implications for epidemic preparedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The presence of comorbidity affects the care of cancer patients, many of whom are living with multiple comorbidities. The prevalence of cancer comorbidity, beyond summary metrics, is not well known. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of comorbid conditions among cancer patients in England, and describe the association between cancer comorbidity and socio-economic position, using population-based electronic health records.Methods: We linked England cancer registry records of patients diagnosed with cancer of the colon, rectum, lung or Hodgkin lymphoma between 2009 and 2013, with hospital admissions records. A comorbidity was any one of fourteen specific conditions, diagnosed during hospital admission up to 6 years prior to cancer diagnosis. We calculated the crude and age-sex adjusted prevalence of each condition, the frequency of multiple comorbidity combinations, and used logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression to estimate the adjusted odds of having each condition and the probability of having each condition as a single or one of multiple comorbidities, respectively, by cancer type.Results: Comorbidity was most prevalent in patients with lung cancer and least prevalent in Hodgkin lymphoma patients. Up to two-thirds of patients within each of the four cancer patient cohorts we studied had at least one comorbidity, and around half of the comorbid patients had multiple comorbidities. Our study highlighted common comorbid conditions among the cancer patient cohorts. In all four cohorts, the odds of having a comorbidity and the probability of multiple comorbidity were consistently highest in the most deprived cancer patients.Conclusions: Cancer healthcare guidelines may need to consider prominent comorbid conditions, particularly to benefit the prognosis of the most deprived patients who carry the greater burden of comorbidity. Insight into patterns of cancer comorbidity may inform further research into the influence of specific comorbidities on socio-economic inequalities in receipt of cancer treatment and in short-term mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information about the joint meeting of Forum on Clinical Haemorheology and the University of Southampton, Southampton, England, that was held from July 16-19, 1991. Some of the major topics taken up for discussion in the conference include fibrinogen as a risk factor for ischaemic heart disease, plasma viscosity, and future directions of epidemiology and haemorheology.

Given the high prevalence of common mental disorders (CMDs) and individuals living alone in the United Kingdom, the goal of this study using English nationally representative data was to examine the association between living alone and CMDs, and to identify potential mediating factors of this association. The data were drawn from the 1993, 2000 and 2007 National Psychiatric Morbidity Surveys. CMDs were assessed using the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised (CIS-R), a questionnaire focusing on past week neurotic symptoms. The presence of CMDs was defined as a CIS-R total score of 12 and above. Multivariable logistic regression and mediation analyses were conducted to analyze the association between living alone and CMDs, and to identify mediators in this association. The prevalence of CMDs was higher in individuals living alone than in those not living alone in all survey years. Multivariable analysis showed a positive association between living alone and CMDs in all survey years (1993: odds ratio [OR] = 1.69; 2000: OR = 1.63; and 2007: OR = 1.88). Overall, loneliness explained 84% of the living alone-CMD association. Living alone was positively associated with CMDs. Interventions addressing loneliness among individuals living alone may be particularly important for the mental wellbeing of this vulnerable population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims.: Associations between employment status and mental health are well recognised, but evidence is sparse on the relationship between paid employment and mental health in the years running up to statutory retirement ages using robust mental health measures. In addition, there has been no investigation into the stability over time in this relationship: an important consideration if survey findings are used to inform future policy. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between employment status and common mental disorder (CMD) in 50–64-year old residents in England and its stability over time, taking advantage of three national mental health surveys carried out over a 14-year period. Methods.: Data were analysed from the British National Surveys of Psychiatric Morbidity of 1993, 2000 and 2007. Paid employment status was the primary exposure of interest and CMD the primary outcome – both ascertained identically in all three surveys (CMD from the revised Clinical Interview Schedule). Multivariable logistic regression models were used. Results.: The prevalence of CMD was higher in people not in paid employment across all survey years; however, this association was only present for non-employment related to poor health as an outcome and was not apparent in those citing other reasons for non-employment. Odds ratios for the association between non-employment due to ill health and CMD were 3.05 in 1993, 3.56 in 2000, and 2.80 in 2007, after adjustment for age, gender, marital status, education, social class, housing tenure, financial difficulties, smoking status, recent physical health consultation and activities of daily living impairment. Conclusions.: The prevalence of CMD was higher in people not in paid employment for health reasons, but was not associated with non-employment for other reasons. Associations had been relatively stable in strength from 1993 to 2007 in those three cross-sectional nationally representative samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]