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This paper aims to explore student experiences resulting from collaborative teaching and learning of academic literacy and content knowledge, for multiple objectives at a South African University of Technology. Using the qualitative research approach, undergraduate students who attended the Communication Skills course were randomly selected. Data were collected using in-depth interviews and questionnaires. The data were thematically coded to make sense of the experiences shared by the participants. The results indicated that academic literacy courses in the Faculty of Applied Sciences at the Cape Peninsula University of Technology (CPUT) were often regarded as peripheral, until we the lecturers in the present study collaborated to align disciplinary or content knowledge with academic literacy. Our alignment included the practice of decolonising the language and academic literacy curriculum, collaborative teaching, integrating content and language teaching and learning, and implementing a range of blended pedagogies, along with social media. Based on the student reflection and feedback, we are inclined to conclude that this pedagogy enhanced the overall teaching and learning experience. We further found that student learning experiences improved as the literacy course was moved from the periphery to the mainstream of the academic project by adopting various approaches in teaching and learning, guided by student needs, the language context of the class, and the learning outcomes or needs of the discipline.

In this paper I argue that the health and well-being outcomes of people at different levels of a social hierarchy, as studied by epidemiologists and psychologists has relevance for educational research, especially in unequal societies. When addressing poverty-associated risk, the educational emphasis need not only be on attaining more individual wealth in society, but could rather be to improve the educational, psychological and social well-being. I draw on four ethnographic studies to construct a bricolage of narratives to show how resilience, health and well-being agendas may lead to positive education outcomes given inequality.

This paper reports on part of a study with the aim of exploring how Muslim learners' knowledge and attitudes of HIV/AIDS were influenced by family and school culture. Findings from data collected during individual semi-structured interviews with the principals, Life Orientation educators, and school guidance counsellors are discussed. Reviewed literature supported the assumption that there were collaborative relationships within school culture that permitted children to learn about sexuality and HIV/ AIDS. Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory and the Eight Gateways or "entry points" of school culture supported the data collection and reinforced the findings theoretically. A purposive sample was used for the qualitative case study within an interpretivist paradigm. The study indicated that the educators believed that the school should teach adolescents' about HIV/AIDS. The aim of the school was to create awareness about non-risky behaviour in terms of HIV/AIDS among the learners. Educators were aware that this education did not always lead to positive behaviour changes. The school interventions had generally engendered positive values and dependable, safe relationships that helped adolescents to make responsible decisions in the face of HIV and AIDS. Educators did concede that despite the education at school, learners had to sometimes make difficult decisions as they were tempted to behave against the principles and education within the macro-society.

Background: In economic analyses of HIV interventions, South Africa is often used as a case in point, due to the availability of good epidemiological and programme data and the global relevance of its epidemic. Few analyses however use locally relevant cost data. We reviewed available cost data as part of the South African HIV Investment Case, a modelling exercise to inform the optimal use of financial resources for the country’s HIV programme. Methods: We systematically reviewed publication databases for published cost data covering a large range of HIV interventions and summarised relevant unit costs (cost per person receiving a service) for each. Where no data was found in the literature, we constructed unit costs either based on available information regarding ingredients and relevant public-sector prices, or based on expenditure records. Results: Only 42 (5%) of 1,047 records included in our full-text review reported primary cost data on HIV interventions in South Africa, with 71% of included papers covering ART. Other papers detailed the costs of HCT, MMC, palliative and inpatient care; no papers were found on the costs of PrEP, social and behaviour change communication, and PMTCT. The results informed unit costs for 5 of 11 intervention categories included in the Investment Case, with the remainder costed based on ingredients (35%) and expenditure data (10%). Conclusions: A large number of modelled economic analyses of HIV interventions in South Africa use as inputs the same, often outdated, cost analyses, without reference to additional literature review. More primary cost analyses of non-ART interventions are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voluntary medical male circumcision is an integral part of the South African government’s response to the HIV and AIDS epidemic. Following circumcision, it is recommended that patients abstain from sexual activity for six weeks, as sex may increase the risk of female-to-male HIV transmission and prolong the healing period. This paper investigates the resumption of sexual activity during the healing period among a cohort of school-going males in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The analysis for this paper compares two groups of sexually active school-going males: the first group reported having sex during the healing period (n = 40) and the second group (n = 98) reported no sex during the healing period (mean age: 17.7, SD: 1.7).The results show that 29% (n = 40) of young males (mean age: 17.9, SD: 1.8) who were previously sexually active, resumed sexual activity during the healing period, had on average two partners and used condoms inconsistently. In addition, those males that engage in sexual activity during the healing period were less inclined to practice safe sex in the future (AOR = 0.055, p = 0.002) than the group of males who reported no sex during the healing period. These findings suggest that a significant proportion of young males may currently and in the future, subject themselves to high levels of risk for contracting HIV post circumcision. Education, as part of a VMMC campaign, must emphasize the high risk of HIV transmission for both the males their partners during the healing period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper has the following aims: (i) to explore the extent to which students who received an intervention involving HIV/AIDS and sexuality perceived that their teacher cared for their health and well-being, (ii) to investigate the characteristics of students who reported to have caring teachers and (iii) to document the association between students’ perceptions of care and reported onset of sexual activity. Data were obtained from the second follow-up survey of a prospective study carried out among high school students in South Africa (Cape Town and Mankweng). We analyzed data from 3483 students who met the inclusion criteria. Students from the intervention group perceived greater care from teachers than students in the control group. Female students and students from Cape Town perceived having received more care, and their perception of care was associated with the number of lessons received, how often students expressed their opinions in class and how often teachers talked about HIV/AIDS, condoms and abstinence. Students who perceived that their teacher cared for their health and well-being were less likely to initiate sexual intercourse. This is the first paper to demonstrate the salience of the concept of care in studies of school-based HIV/AIDS prevention programs in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Vitamin D deficiency (25-hydroxyvitamin D; 25(OH)D) is at epidemic proportions in western dwelling South Asian populations, including severe deficiency (<12⋅5 nmol/l) in 27-60% of individuals, depending on season. The paper aimed to review the literature concerning vitamin D concentrations in this population group. Research from the UK and Europe suggests a high prevalence of South Asians with 25(OH)D concentration <25 nmol/l, with most having a 25(OH)D concentration of <50 nmol/l. In Canada, South Asians appear to have a slightly higher 25(OH)D concentration. There are few studies from the United States, South Africa and Australasia. Reasons for vitamin D deficiency include low vitamin D intake, relatively high adiposity, sun exposure avoidance and wearing of a covered dress style for cultural reasons. Possible health effects of deficiency include bone diseases such as rickets and hypocalcaemia in children and osteomalacia in adults. Vitamin D deficiency may also increase the risk of other chronic diseases. Increased fortification of food items relevant to South Asian groups (e.g. chapatti flour), as well as increased use of vitamin D supplements may help reduce this epidemic. Introducing culturally acceptable ways of increasing skin exposure to the sun in South Asian women may also be beneficial but further research is needed to assess the effectiveness of different approaches. There may be a need for a South Asian specific vitamin D dietary intake guideline in western countries. To conclude, vitamin D deficiency is epidemic in South Asians living in western countries and there is a clear need for urgent public health action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: HIV self-testing (HIVST) offers a useful addition to HIV testing services and enables individuals to test privately. Despite recommendations to the contrary, repeat HIV testing is frequent among people already on anti-retroviral treatment (ART) and there are concerns that oral self-testing might lead to false negative results. A study was conducted in Khayelitsha, South Africa, to assess feasibility and uptake of HIVST and linkage-to-care following HIVST. Methods: Participants were recruited at two health facilities from 1 March 2016 to 31 March 2017. People under 18 years, or with self-reported previously-diagnosed HIV infection, were excluded. Participants received an OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 Antibody kit, and reported their HIVST results by pre-paid text message (SMS) or by returning to the facility. Those not reporting within 7 days were contacted by phone. Electronic and paper-based clinical and laboratory records were retrospectively examined for all participants to identify known HIV outcomes, after matching for name, date of birth, and sex. These findings were compared with self-reported HIVST results where available. Results: Of 639 participants, 401 (62.8%) self-reported a negative HIVST result, 27 (4.2%) a positive result, and 211 (33.0%) did not report. The record search identified that of the 401 participants self-reporting a negative HIVST result, 19 (4.7%) were already known to be HIV positive; of the 27 self-reporting positive, 12 (44%) were known HIV positive. Overall, records showed 57/639 (8.9%) were HIV positive of whom 39/57 (68.4%) had previously-diagnosed infection and 18/57 (31.6%) newly-diagnosed infection. Of the 428 participants who self-reported a result, 366 (85.5%) reported by SMS. Conclusions: HIVST can improve HIV testing uptake and linkage to care. SMS is acceptable for reporting HIVST results but negative self-reports by participants may be unreliable. Use of HIVST by individuals on ART is frequent despite recommendations to the contrary and its implications need further consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Women remain highly vulnerable to HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa, with female sex workers (FSWs) facing some of the highest rates of HIV. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has the potential to reduce new infections among populations at highest risk and end-user perspectives of actual use in ‘real-world’ settings are critical to informing PrEP implementation. This paper presents findings from serial in-depth interviews (IDIs) conducted with FSW participants during the course of the Treatment And Prevention for Sex workers (TAPS) Demonstration Project in South Africa, exploring the lived experiences and perceptions of taking up and using PrEP. This research provides insight into risks and responsibilities facing FSWs perceived as prominent drivers in taking up and using PrEP, how PrEP was adopted to mitigate risk or ameliorate realities, and the characteristics of PrEP most valued, all of which are critical to consider in scale-up. Overall, distrust in the existence and/or efficacy of PrEP affected the motivation of women to come to the clinic and to maintain use. As one of the first reports of PrEP use among FSWs outside of a clinical trial setting, this research shows that it will be important to ensure accurate, relevant, and widespread messaging in communities to generate demand and support for PrEP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In many sub-Saharan African countries, confronting the dual epidemic of HIV and NCDs is a public health priority especially in high HIV burden countries such as South Africa. Evidence shows that poor health as a consequence of NCDs and HIV among the workforce increases absenteeism and leads to decrease in productivity. However, the prevalence of these co-occurring chronic conditions and associated factors is unknown in the educator workforce. Improved understanding has implications for their management and wellbeing of educators. This paper reports the prevalence of selected NCDs and associated factors among HIV positive educators in South Africa using the 2015/6 survey of Educators in Public Schools in South Africa. Methods: This was a second-generation surveillance undertaken among educators in selected public schools in all nine provinces in South Africa. A multi-stage stratified cluster design with probability proportional to size sampling was used to draw a random sample of schools. Factors associated with presence of NCDs were determined using a multivariate backward stepwise logistic regression analysis. Results: A total of 1 365 schools were sampled within which 21 495 (85.5%) educators were interviewed. Out of 2691, HIV Positive educators that responded to the questions on NCDs, 36.9% reported having NCDs. The most commonly reported NCDs were high blood pressure (17.4%), and stomach ulcers (13.5%). The increased odds of reporting the presence of NCDs was significantly associated with being female than male [aOR = 1.5: 95% CI (1.1–1.9), p<0.002], age 45 to 54 years [aOR = 1.8: 95% CI (1.4–2.2), p = p<0.001], and age 55 years and older than those 18 to 24 years [aOR = 2.7: 95% CI (1.8–3.9), p<0.001). The decreased odds of reporting the presence of NCDs was significantly associated with not being absent from school for health reasons [aOR = 0.7: 95% CI (0.6–0.9), p = 0.003]. Conclusion: NCDs care and active screening should be an integral part of HIV programmes including interventions such as prevention, treatment, care and support amongst public school educators in SA. The education department will need to invest in health promotion intervention programmes to prevent and mitigate the negative impact of NCDs and HIV on the sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The increasing number of people requiring HIV treatment in South Africa calls for efficient use of its human resources for health in order to ensure optimum treatment coverage and outcomes. This paper describes an innovative public-private partnership model which uses private sector doctors to treat public sector patients and ascertains the model’s ability to maintain treatment outcomes over time. Methods: The study used a retrospective design based on the electronic records of patients who were down-referred from government hospitals to selected private general medical practitioners (GPs) between November 2005 and October 2012. In total, 2535 unique patient records from 40 GPs were reviewed. The survival functions for mortality and attrition were calculated. Cumulative incidence of mortality for different time cohorts (defined by year of treatment initiation) was also established. Results: The median number of patients per GP was 143 (IQR: 66–246). At the time of down-referral to private GPs, 13.8% of the patients had CD4 count <200 cell/mm3, this proportion reduced to 6.6% at 12 months and 4.1% at 48 months. Similarly, 88.4% of the patients had suppressed viral load (defined as HIV-1 RNA <400 copies/ml) at 48 months. The patients’ probability of survival at 12 and 48 months was 99.0% (95% CI: 98.4%–99.3%) and 89.0% (95% CI: 87.1%–90.0%) respectively. Patient retention at 48 months remained high at 94.3% (95% CI: 93.0%–95.7%). Conclusions: The study findings demonstrate the ability of the GPs to effectively maintain patient treatment outcomes and potentially contribute to HIV treatment scale-up with the relevant support mechanism. The model demonstrates how an assisted private sector based programme can be effectively and efficiently used to either target specific health concerns, key populations or serve as a stop-gap measure to meet urgent health needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Agreed international development standards underpin high quality de novo clinical practice guidelines (CPGs). There is however, no international consensus on how high quality CPGs should ‘look’; or on whether high quality CPGs from one country can be viably implemented elsewhere. Writing de novo CPGs is generally resource-intensive and expensive, making this challenging in resource-poor environments. This paper proposes an alternative, efficient method of producing high quality CPGs in such circumstances, using existing CPGs layered by local knowledge, contexts and products. Methods: We undertook a mixed methods case study in South African (SA) primary healthcare (PHC), building on findings from four independent studies. These comprised an overview of international CPG activities; a rapid literature review on international CPG development practices; critical appraisal of 16 purposively-sampled SA PHC CPGs; and additional interrogation of these CPGs regarding how, why and for whom, they had been produced, and how they ‘looked’. Results: Despite a common aim to improve SA PHC healthcare practices, the included CPGs had different, unclear and inconsistent production processes, terminology and evidence presentation styles. None aligned with international quality standards. However many included innovative succinct guidance for end-users (which we classified as evidence-based summary recommendations, patient management tools or protocols). We developed a three-tiered model, a checklist and a glossary of common terms, for more efficient future production of better quality, contextually-relevant, locally-implementable SA PHC CPGs. Tier 1 involves transparent synthesis of existing high quality CPG recommendations; Tier 2 reflects local expertise to layer Tier 1 evidence with local contexts; and Tier 3 comprises tailored locally-relevant end-user guidance. Conclusion: Our model could be relevant for any resource-poor environment. It should reduce effort and costs in finding and synthesising available research evidence, whilst efficiently focusing scant resources on contextually-relevant evidence-based guidance, and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Virtually all low- and middle-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition whose progression is more varied than experienced in high-income countries. Observed changes in mortality and disease patterns reveal that the transition in most low- and middle-income countries is characterized by reversals, partial changes and the simultaneous occurrence of different types of diseases of varying magnitude. Localized characterization of this shifting burden, frequently lacking, is essential to guide decentralised health and social systems on the effective targeting of limited resources. Based on a rigorous compilation of mortality data over two decades, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African population.Methods: We estimate overall and cause-specific hazards of death as functions of sex, age and time period from mortality data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and conduct statistical tests of changes and differentials to assess the progression of the epidemiological transition over the period 1993-2013.Results: From the early 1990s until 2007 the population experienced a reversal in its epidemiological transition, driven mostly by increased HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. In recent years, the transition is following a positive trajectory as a result of declining HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. However, in most age groups the cause of death distribution is yet to reach the levels it occupied in the early 1990s. The transition is also characterized by persistent gender differences with more rapid positive progression in females than males.Conclusions: This typical rural South African population is experiencing a protracted epidemiological transition. The intersection and interaction of HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment, non-communicable disease risk factors and complex social and behavioral changes will impact on continued progress in reducing preventable mortality and improving health across the life course. Integrated healthcare planning and program delivery is required to improve access and adherence for HIV and non-communicable disease treatment. These findings from a local, rural setting over an extended period contribute to the evidence needed to inform further refinement and advancement of epidemiological transition theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Empirical studies and population-level policy simulations show the importance of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in generalized epidemics. This paper complements available scenario-based studies (projecting costs and outcomes over some policy period, typically spanning decades) by adopting an incremental approach-analyzing the expected consequences of circumcising one male individual with specific characteristics in a specific year. This approach yields more precise estimates of VMMC's cost-effectiveness and identifies the outcomes of current investments in VMMC (e.g., within a fiscal budget period) rather than of investments spread over the entire policy period.Methods/findings: The model has three components. We adapted the ASSA2008 model, a demographic and epidemiological model of the HIV epidemic in South Africa, to analyze the impact of one VMMC on HIV incidence over time and across the population. A costing module tracked the costs of VMMC and the resulting financial savings owing to reduced HIV incidence over time. Then, we used several financial indicators to assess the cost-effectiveness of and financial return on investments in VMMC. One circumcision of a young man up to age 20 prevents on average over 0.2 HIV infections, but this effect declines steeply with age, e.g., to 0.08 by age 30. Net financial savings from one VMMC at age 20 are estimated at US$617 at a discount rate of 5% and are lower for circumcisions both at younger ages (because the savings occur later and are discounted more) and at older ages (because male circumcision becomes less effective). Investments in male circumcision carry a financial rate of return of up to 14.5% (for circumcisions at age 20). The cost of a male circumcision is refinanced fastest, after 13 y, for circumcisions at ages 20 to 25. Principal limitations of the analysis arise from the long time (decades) over which the effects of VMMC unfold-the results are therefore sensitive to the discount rate applied, and more generally to the future course of the epidemic and of HIV/AIDS-related policies pursued by the government.Conclusions: VMMC in South Africa is highly effective in reducing both HIV incidence and the financial costs of the HIV response. The return on investment is highest if males are circumcised between ages 20 and 25, but this return on investment declines steeply with age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The early COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa was highly heterogeneous looking at the epidemiological progression between major provinces. • Early transmission in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) was associated with multiple international introductions of SARS-CoV-2. • The dominating lineages during this time of the epidemic were B.1 and B, which mainly originated from Europe. • Evidence for transmission clusters during the first month of the epidemic suggested locally acquired infection. • A clustered outbreak was linked to a major hospital outbreak in Durban, which inflated the early mortality in KZN. The Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA) was formed to investigate the introduction and understand the early transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in South-Africa. This paper presents the first results from this group, which is a molecular epidemiological study of the first 21 SARS-CoV-2 whole genomes sampled in the first port of entry – KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) – during the first month of the epidemic. By combining this with calculations of the effective reproduction number (R), it aimed to shed light on the patterns of infections in South Africa. Two of the largest provinces – Gauteng and KZN – had a slow growth rate for the number of detected cases, while the epidemic spread faster in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape. The estimates of transmission potential suggested a decrease towards R = 1 since the first cases and deaths, but a subsequent estimated R average of 1.39 between 6–18 May 2020. It was also demonstrated that early transmission in KZN was associated with multiple international introductions and dominated by lineages B1 and B. Evidence for locally acquired infections in a hospital in Durban within the first month of the epidemic was also provided. The COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa was very heterogeneous in its spatial dimension, with many distinct introductions of SARS-CoV2 in KZN and evidence of nosocomial transmission, which inflated early mortality in KZN. The epidemic at the local level was still developing and NGS-SA aimed to clarify the dynamics in South Africa and devise the most effective measures as the outbreak evolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies of rape of women seldom distinguish between men's participation in acts of single and multiple perpetrator rape. Multiple perpetrator rape (MPR) occurs globally with serious consequences for women. In South Africa it is a cultural practice with defined circumstances in which it commonly occurs. Prevention requires an understanding of whether it is a context specific intensification of single perpetrator rape, or a distinctly different practice of different men. This paper aims to address this question. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional household study with a multi-stage, randomly selected sample of 1686 men aged 18-49 who completed a questionnaire administered using an Audio-enhanced Personal Digital Assistant. We attempted to fit an ordered logistic regression model for factors associated with rape perpetration. Results: 27.6 % of men had raped and 8.8 % had perpetrated multiple perpetrator rape (MPR). Thus 31.9 % of men who had ever raped had done so with other perpetrators. An ordered regression model was fitted, showing that the same associated factors, albeit at higher prevalence, are associated with SPR and MPR. Conclusions: Multiple perpetrator rape appears as an intensified form of single perpetrator rape, rather than a different form of rape. Prevention approaches need to be mainstreamed among young men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gender-based violence is a well-recognized risk factor for HIV infection among women. Alcohol use is associated with both gender-based violence and sexual risk behavior, but has not been examined as a correlate of both in a context of both high HIV risk and hazardous drinking. The purpose of this paper is to examine the association between recent abuse by a sex partner with alcohol and sexual risk behavior among female patrons of alcohol serving venues in South Africa. Specifically, the aim of this study is to determine whether sexual risk behaviors are associated with gender-based violence after controlling for levels of alcohol use. We surveyed 1,388 women attending informal drinking establishments in Cape Town, South Africa to assess recent history of gender-based violence, drinking, and sexual risk behaviors. Gender-based violence was associated with both drinking and sexual risk behaviors after controlling for demographics among the women. A hierarchical logistic regression analysis showed that after controlling for alcohol use sexual risk behavior remained significantly associated with gender-based violence, particularly with meeting a new sex partner at the bar, recent STI diagnosis, and engaging in transactional sex, but not protected intercourse or number of partners. In South Africa where heavy drinking is prevalent women may be at particular risk of physical abuse from intimate partners as well as higher sexual risk. Interventions that aim to reduce gender-based violence and sexual risk behaviors must directly work to reduce drinking behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria is one of the most widespread infectious diseases of our time, causing 655 000 deaths during 2010 (WHO), most of them in sub-Saharan Africa and under the age of 5. During the last few years an increasing number of imported malaria cases is reported in Europe and Mediterranean countries, probably supported by the increasing number of international travel in association with the important influx of immigrants from malaria-endemic countries. Moreover, the presence of Anopheline vectors in Mediterranean countries, the returned infected travellers as a source of parasite and climate changes may result in the reappearance of malaria in countries where it was previously eradicated, such as Greece in recent years. Several cases of autochthonous malaria have recently been reported to support the need of an ongoing surveillance for mosquito control and an increased vigilance by health professionals. The aim of this paper is to critically review all the available literature about imported malaria in Mediterranean areas and the potential consequences of this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In South Africa, district social service offices are often the first point of entry into the substance abuse treatment system. Despite this, little is known about the profile of people presenting with substance-related problems at these service points. This has a negative impact on treatment service planning. This paper begins to redress this gap through describing patterns of substance use and service needs among people using general social services in the Western Cape and comparing findings against the profile of persons attending specialist substance abuse treatment facilities in the region. Methods: As part of a standard client information system, an electronic questionnaire was completed for each person seeking social assistance. Data on socio-demographic characteristics, the range of presenting problems, patterns of substance use, perceived consequences of substance use, as well as types of services provided were analysed for the 691 social welfare clients who reported substance use between 2007 and 2009. These data were compared against clients attending substance abuse treatment centres during the same time period. Results: Findings indicate that social services offices are used as a way of accessing specialist services but are also used as a service point, especially by groups under-represented in the specialist treatment sector. Women, people from rural communities and people with alcohol-related problems are more likely to seek assistance at social service offices providing low threshold intervention services than from the specialist treatment sector. Conclusions: The study provides evidence that social services are a point of entry and intervention for people from underserved communities in the Western Cape. If these low-threshold services can be supported to provide good quality services, they may be an effective and efficient way of improving access to treatment in a context of limited service availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Spatial statistical analysis of 1994-1995 small-area malaria incidence rates in the population of the northernmost districts of KwaZulu Natal, South Africa, was undertaken to identify factors that might explain very strong heterogeneity in the rates. In this paper, the authors describe a method of adjusting the regression analysis results for strong spatial correlation in the rates by using generalized linear mixed models and variograms. The results of the spatially adjusted, multiple regression analysis showed that malaria incidence was significantly positively associated with higher winter rainfall and a higher average maximum temperature and was significantly negatively associated with increasing distance from water bodies. The statistical model was used to produce a map of predicted malaria incidence in the area, taking into account local variation from the model prediction if this variation was supported by the data. The predictor variables showed that even small differences in climate can have very marked effects on the intensity of malaria transmission, even in areas subject to malaria control for many years. The results of this study have important implications for malaria control programs in the area. Am J Epidemiol 2001;153:1213-21. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a globally significant non-communicable disorder. CKD prevalence varies between countries and within a country. We compared the prevalence rates of CKD in South Africa with sub-Saharan Africa, Africa, and globally. Methods: We registered a systematic review with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews for prevalence studies reporting CKD stages III-V from 2013 to 2021. The analysis sought to explain any significant differences in prevalence rates. The R statistical package was used for data analysis. Comparisons included measures of effect size due to the large sample sizes analysed. We also compared sex differences in prevalence rates, common aetiologies, and type of study methodologies employed. Results: Eight studies were analysed, with two from each region. The matched prevalence rates of CKD between the various regions and South Africa showed significant differences, except for one comparison between South Africa and an African study [p = 0.09 (95% CI − 0.04–0.01)]. Both sub-Saharan African studies had a higher prevalence than South Africa. One study in Africa had a higher prevalence, while the other had a lower prevalence, whilst one Global study had a higher prevalence, and the other had a lower prevalence compared to South Africa. The statistical differences analysed using the Cramer's V test were substantially less than 0.1. Thus, differences in comparisons were largely due to differences in sample sizes rather than actual differences. Conclusion: Variable prevalence rates between regions included disparities in sample size, definitions of CKD, lack of chronicity testing and heterogeneous laboratory estimations of eGFR. Improved consistency and enhanced methods for diagnosing and comparing CKD prevalence are essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 virus was detected in coastal seabirds in late 2017 in South Africa, following a devastating epidemic in the commercial poultry and ostrich industries. By May 2018, the infection had been confirmed in fifteen seabird species at 31 sites along the southern coast, with the highest mortality recorded in terns (Family Laridae, Order Charadriiformes). Over 7,500 positive or suspected cases in seabirds were reported. Among those infected were three endangered species: African penguins (Spheniscus demersus Linnaeus, 1758), Cape cormorants (Phalacrocorax capensis Wahlberg, 1855), and Cape gannets (Morus capensis Lichtenstein, 1823). The scale and impact of this outbreak were unprecedented in southern African coastal seabirds and raised logistical challenges in resource allocation, risk mitigation, and outbreak response. It required the collaboration of multiple stakeholder groups, including a variety of government departments and nongovernmental organizations. With another HPAI outbreak in South African seabirds in 2021 and major incursions in seabird species in the northern hemisphere in 2022, it is vital to share and consolidate knowledge on the subject. We describe the epidemic, the lessons learned, and recommendations for developing contingency plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a highly contagious viral pathogen. In infants, it is usually listed among the main causes of medical referrals and hospitalizations, particularly among newborns, and a considerable base of evidence associates RSV infections and bronchiolitis with long-term neurological sequelae. We specifically performed a systematic review and meta-analysis in order to ascertain whether RSV infections may be associated with an increased risk for febrile seizures (FS) in infected infants. According to the PRISMA statement, Pubmed, Embase, and pre-print archive medRxiv.og were searched for eligible observational studies published up to 1 July 2022. Raw data included the incidence of FS among children admitted for influenza-like illness (ILI) and/or bronchiolitis, with a confirmed diagnosis of RSV or seasonal influenza virus (SIV) infection. Data were then pooled in a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 measure, while reporting bias was assessed by means of funnel plots and regression analysis. A total of 11 studies including 6847 cases of RSV infections were retrieved, with a pooled prevalence of 29.975 cases of FS per 1000 RSV cases (I2 = 88.5%). The prevalence was not substantially greater in studies performed in pediatric intensive care units (53.817 per 1000 RSV cases vs. 23.552, p = 0.12). Higher occurrence of FS was reported from studies performed after 2010 (Risk Ratio [RR] 1.429, 95% Confidence Interval [95%CI] 1.049–1.948), and in China (RR 2.105, 95%CI 1.356–3.266) and South Africa (RR 1.722, 95%CI 1.060–2.824) than in Europe, while a lower occurrence was reported form the USA (RR 0.414, 95%CI 0.265–0.649). Eventually, FS were less likely reported from RSV cases compared to subjects affected by seasonal influenza (RR 0.402; 95%CI 0.228–0.708). Although RSV is often associated with high risk of neurological complications, substantially less cases of FS are reported than in SIV infections. However, the paucity of available studies recommends a cautious appraisal of aforementioned results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mycobacterium bovis infection, which is a prominent cause of bovine tuberculosis, has been confirmed by mycobacterial culture in African rhinoceros species in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. In this population-based study of the epidemiology of M. bovis in 437 African rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis, Ceratotherium simum), we report an estimated prevalence of 15.4% (95% CI: 10.4 to 21.0%), based on results from mycobacterial culture and an antigen-specific interferon gamma release assay from animals sampled between 2016 and 2020. A significant spatial cluster of cases was detected near the southwestern park border, although infection was widely distributed. Multivariable logistic regression models, including demographic and spatiotemporal variables, showed a significant, increasing probability of M. bovis infection in white rhinoceros based on increased numbers of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) herds in the vicinity of the rhinoceros sampling location. Since African buffaloes are important maintenance hosts for M. bovis in KNP, spillover of infection from these hosts to white rhinoceros sharing the environment is suspected. There was also a significantly higher proportion of M. bovis infection in black rhinoceros in the early years of the study (2016-2018) than in 2019 and 2020, which coincided with periods of intense drought, although other temporal factors could be implicated. Species of rhinoceros, age, and sex were not identified as risk factors for M. bovis infection. These study findings provide a foundation for further epidemiological investigation of M. bovis, a multihost pathogen, in a complex ecosystem that includes susceptible species that are threatened and endangered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how housing modifies the temperature–mortality relationship in the Eastern and Western Cape provinces of South Africa. We estimate dose–response relationships for residents living in each of the five common types of South African housing by combining linear-threshold models for Cape Town with concurrent data on the city's housing composition and expert estimates of how well different types of housing protect against heat and cold. We then apply temperature data to determine provincial-level dose–response relationships, relative risks, attributable fractions and mortality burdens for heat and cold under seven housing scenarios – three past, three future and a scenario of maximum protection. We find that future mortality burdens would be lower under a policy scenario that prioritizes the replacement of informal housing compared to one that prioritizes the replacement of traditional dwellings. In a maximum protection scenario, where everyone lived in houses characteristic of the wealthy, temperature-related mortality could be reduced by over 50% (approximately 5000 deaths annually) in the two provinces combined. These results have relevance to current housing policy but also reinforce the importance of the built environment in mitigating adverse effects of future climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Microsporidia are obligate intracellular parasites that can infect nearly all invertebrates and vertebrates, posing a threat to public health and causing large economic losses to animal industries such as those of honeybees, silkworms and shrimp. However, the global epidemiology of these pathogens is far from illuminated. Methods: Publications on microsporidian infections were obtained from PubMed, Science Direct and Web of Science and filtered according to the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Infection data about pathogens, hosts, geography and sampling dates were manually retrieved from the publications and screened for high quality. Prevalence rates and risk factors for different pathogens and hosts were analyzed by conducting a meta-analysis. The geographic distribution and seasonal prevalence of microsporidian infections were drawn and summarized according to sampling locations and date, respectively. Results: Altogether, 287 out of 4129 publications up to 31 January 2020 were obtained and met the requirements, from which 385 epidemiological data records were retrieved and effective. The overall prevalence rates in humans, pigs, dogs, cats, cattle, sheep, nonhuman primates and fowl were 10.2% [2429/30,354; 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.2–11.2%], 39.3% (2709/5105; 95% CI 28.5–50.1%), 8.8% (228/2890; 95% CI 5.1–10.1%), 8.1% (112/1226; 95% CI 5.5–10.8%), 16.6% (2216/12,175; 95% CI 13.5–19.8%), 24.9% (1142/5967; 95% CI 18.6–31.1%), 18.5% (1388/7009; 95% CI 13.1–23.8%) and 7.8% (725/9243; 95% CI 6.4–9.2%), respectively. The higher prevalence in pigs suggests that routine detection of microsporidia in animals should be given more attention, considering their potential roles in zoonotic disease. The highest rate was detected in water, 58.5% (869/1351; 95% CI 41.6–75.5%), indicating that water is an important source of infections. Univariate regression analysis showed that CD4+ T cell counts and the living environment are significant risk factors for humans and nonhuman primates, respectively. Geographically, microsporidia have been widely found in 92 countries, among which Northern Europe and South Africa have the highest prevalence. In terms of seasonality, the most prevalent taxa, Enterocytozoon bieneusi and Encephalitozoon, display different prevalence trends, but no significant difference between seasons was observed. In addition to having a high prevalence, microsporidia are extremely divergent because 728 genotypes have been identified in 7 species. Although less investigated, microsporidia coinfections are more common with human immunodeficiency virus and Cryptosporidium than with other pathogens. Conclusions: This study provides the largest-scale meta-analysis to date on microsporidia prevalence in mammals, birds and water worldwide. The results suggest that microsporidia are highly divergent, widespread and prevalent in some animals and water and should be further investigated to better understand their epidemic features. ID="Par5" OutputMedium="Online"> [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diabetes has been reported as the second leading cause of death and the top leading cause of death amongst women in South Africa; it is important to evaluate any epidemiological or demographic transition related to diabetes. This study evaluated the demographically stratified prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and existing comorbidities amongst an outpatient population in a district healthcare facility in Kwazulu-Natal (KZN). Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted at a district hospital, and a retrospective record review of all outpatients who reported to the hospital to be treated for T2DM between the period, August 2018-January 2019, was used. Data, such as age, sex, ethnicity and any coexisting morbidity, were collected from outpatient hospital registers and electronically captured using a record review tool. Results: There were significantly more female patients (3072) compared to male patients (1050) (p < 0.001) with a mean age of 59.21 years. Hypertension (77.9%) and cardiovascular problems (11.16%) were most frequent. Approximately 84% of women presented with T2DM and either one or two morbidities simultaneously. Female patients were at significantly higher risk of presenting with hypertension (odds ratio [OR] = 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20;1.71), whilst their risk for cardiovascular problems was significantly lower compared to male patients (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.54;0.83). Conclusion: The prevalence of T2DM and comorbidities differed by demographic factors, such as sex, ethnicity and age. There is a need for flexible and adaptive approaches for the prevention and management of T2DM cases in order to allocate medical resources efficiently and according to the true burden of disease because of T2DM complications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ascosporic infection plays a major role in the epidemiology of citrus black spot (CBS) in South Africa, a disease caused by Phyllosticta citricarpa. Phyllosticta pseudothecium maturation and ascospore release models have been integrated in infection models to predict the availability of the primary inoculum source. However, these models have not been validated on a broader data set and this study aimed to validate and improve these epidemiological models. New pseudothecium maturation and ascospore release models for P. citricarpa were developed, based on weather and ascospore trap data from 13 locations and up to five seasons. From the 29 data sets analysed, 3775 3-hourly periods with ascospore events were recorded on 1798 days; 90% of these events occurred between 16.0 °C and 32.1 °C (daily Tmin and Tmax of 15.4 °C and 33.5 °C, respectively) and 75% occurred above a relative humidity (RH) of 55.9% (daily RH > 47.9%). Rain was recorded during 13.8% of these ascospore events and 20.0% of ascospore days. Using logistic regression, a Gompertz model that best predicted pseudothecium maturation, or the probability of onset of ascospore release, was developed and was markedly more accurate than the previously described models. The model consisted of DDtemp [cumulative degree-days from midwinter (1 July) calculated as (minimum + maximum daily temperature) / 2 - 10 °C] and DDwet (DDtemp accumulated only on days with >0.1 mm rain or vapour pressure deficit <5 hPa) as variables in the formula: probability of first ascospore event = exp(-exp(-(-3.131 + 0.007 × DDtemp - 0.007 × DDwet))). A Gompertz model [PAT = exp(-2.452 × exp(-0.004 × DDwet2))] was also developed for ascospore release; DDwet2 = DDtemp accumulated, from first seasonal ascospore trap day, only on days with >0.1 mm rain or vapour pressure deficit <5 hPa. Similar to the DDwet2 model described in a previous study, this model adequately predicted the general trend in ascospore release but poorly predicted periods of daily, 3-day and 7-day ascospore peaks. Significance: • We developed a new pseudothecium maturation model from 29 data sets, comprising different climatic regions in South Africa, and validated previously published models. The new model was markedly more accurate in predicting the onset of ascospore release and can be used to improve existing CBS epidemiological models and improve risk assessment and management of CBS in South African citrus orchards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multimorbidity is rising in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the evidence on its epidemiology from LMICs settings is limited and the available literature has not been synthesized as yet. Objectives: To review the available evidence on the epidemiology of multimorbidity in LMICs. Methods: PubMed, Scopus, PsycINFO and Grey literature databases were searched. We followed the PRISMA-ScR reporting guideline. Results: Of 33, 110 articles retrieved, 76 studies were eligible for the epidemiology of multimorbidity. Of these 76 studies, 66 (86.8%) were individual country studies. Fifty-two (78.8%) of which were confined to only six middle-income countries: Brazil, China, South Africa, India, Mexico and Iran. The majority (n = 68, 89.5%) of the studies were crosssectional in nature. The sample size varied from 103 to 242, 952. The largest proportion (n = 33, 43.4%) of the studies enrolled adults. Marked variations existed in defining and measuring multimorbidity. The prevalence of multimorbidity in LMICs ranged from 3.2% to 90.5%. Conclusion and Recommendations: Studies on the epidemiology of multimorbidity in LMICs are limited and the available ones are concentrated in few countries. Despite variations in measurement and definition, studies consistently reported high prevalence of multimorbidity. Further research is urgently required to better understand the epidemiology of multimorbidity and define the best possible interventions to improve outcomes of patients with multimorbidity in LMICs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Home visits by paraprofessional community health workers (CHWs) has been shown to improve maternal and child health outcomes in research studies in many countries. Yet, when these are scaled or replicated, efficacy disappears. An effective CHW home visiting program in peri-urban Cape Town found maternal and child health benefits over the 5 years point but this study examines if these benefits occur in deeply rural communities.Methods: A non-randomized, two-group comparison study evaluated the impact of CHW in the rural Eastern Cape from August 2014 to May 2017, with 1310 mother-infant pairs recruited in pregnancy and 89% were reassessed at 6 months post-birth.Results: Home visiting had limited, but important effects on child health, maternal wellbeing and health behaviors. Mothers reported fewer depressive symptoms, attended more antenatal visits and had better baby-feeding practices. Intervention mothers were significantly more likely to exclusively breastfeed for 6 months (OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1, 2.9), had lower odds of mixing formula with baby porridge (regarded as detrimental) (OR: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2, 0.8) and were less likely to consult traditional healers. Mothers living with HIV were more adherent with co-trimoxazole prophylaxis (p < 0.01). Intervention-group children were significantly less likely to be wasted (OR: 0.5; 95% CI 0.3-0.9) and had significantly fewer symptoms of common childhood illnesses in the preceding two weeks (OR: 0.8; 95% CI: 0.7,0.9).Conclusion: The impact of CHWs in a rural area was less pronounced than in peri-urban areas. CHWs are likely to need enhanced support and supervision in the challenging rural context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to examine the association between breastfeeding and childhood obesity. A multinational cross‐sectional study of 4,740 children aged 9–11 years was conducted from 12 countries. Infant breastfeeding was recalled by parents or legal guardians. Height, weight, waist circumference, and body fat were obtained using standardized methods. The overall prevalence of obesity, central obesity, and high body fat were 12.3%, 9.9%, and 8.1%, respectively. After adjustment for maternal age at delivery, body mass index (BMI), highest maternal education, history of gestational diabetes, gestational age, and child's age, sex, birth weight, unhealthy diet pattern scores, moderate‐to‐vigorous physical activity, sleeping, and sedentary time, exclusive breastfeeding was associated with lower odds of obesity (odds ratio [OR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval, CI [0.57, 1.00]) and high body fat (OR 0.60, 95% CI [0.43, 0.84]) compared with exclusive formula feeding. The multivariable‐adjusted ORs based on different breastfeeding durations (none, 1–6, 6–12, and > 12 months) were 1.00, 0.74, 0.70, and 0.60 for obesity (Ptrend =.020) and 1.00, 0.64, 047, and 0.64 for high body fat (Ptrend =.012), respectively. These associations were no longer significant after adjustment for maternal BMI. Breastfeeding may be a protective factor for obesity and high body fat in 9‐ to 11‐year‐old children from 12 countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Approximately 250 million (43%) children under the age of 5 years in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are failing to meet their developmental potential. Risk factors are recognised to contribute to this loss of human potential. Expanding understanding of the risks that lead to poor outcomes and which protective factors contribute to resilience in children may be critical to improving disparities.Methods and Findings: The Drakenstein Child Health Study is a population-based birth cohort in the Western Cape, South Africa. Pregnant women were enrolled between 20 and 28 weeks' gestation from two community clinics from 2012 to 2015; sociodemographic and psychosocial data were collected antenatally. Mothers and children were followed through birth until 2 years of age. Developmental assessments were conducted by trained assessors blinded to background, using the Bayley-III Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (BSID-III), validated for use in South Africa, at 24 months of age. The study assessed all available children at 24 months; however, some children were not able to attend, because of loss to follow-up or unavailability of a caregiver or child at the correct age. Of 1,143 live births, 1,002 were in follow-up at 24 months, and a total of 734 children (73%) had developmental assessments, of which 354 (48.2%) were girls. This sample was characterised by low household employment (n = 183; 24.9%) and household income (n = 287; 39.1% earning 1 domain affected, and 75 (10.2%) had delay in all domains. Bivariate and multivariable analyses revealed several factors that were associated with developmental outcomes. These included protective factors (maternal education, higher birth weight, and socioeconomic status) and risk factors (maternal anaemia in pregnancy, depression or lifetime intimate partner violence, and maternal HIV infection). Boys consistently performed worse than girls (in cognition [β = -0.74; 95% CI -1.46 to -0.03, p = 0.042], receptive language [β = -1.10; 95% CI -1.70 to -0.49, p < 0.001], expressive language [β = -1.65; 95% CI -2.46 to -0.84, p < 0.001], and fine motor [β = -0.70; 95% CI -1.20 to -0.20, p = 0.006] scales). There was evidence that child sex interacted with risk and protective factors including birth weight, maternal anaemia in pregnancy, and socioeconomic factors. Important limitations of the study include attrition of sample from birth to assessment age and missing data in some exposure areas from those assessed.Conclusions: This study provides reliable developmental data from a sub-Saharan African setting in a well-characterised sample of mother-child dyads. Our findings highlight not only the important protective effects of maternal education, birth weight, and socioeconomic status for developmental outcomes but also sex differences in developmental outcomes and key risk and protective factors for each group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Measures used to assess equitable relationship dynamics, including the sexual relationship power scale (SRPS) have previously been associated with lower HIV-risk among young women, and reduced perpetration of intimate partner violence among men. However, few studies describe how the SRPS has been adapted and validated for use within global youth sexual health studies. We examined gender-specific psychometric properties, reliability, and validity of a SRPS used within a South African youth-engaged cohort study. Methods: Young men and women (16–24 years) enrolled in community-based cohorts in Durban and Soweto (2014–2016) reporting a primary partner at 6-month follow-up completed a 13-item (strongly agree/agree/disagree/strongly disagree) South African adaptation of Pulerwitz’s SRPS (range 13–52, higher scores indicating greater sexual relationship power [SRP] equity). SRPS modifications were made using gender-specific exploratory factor analyses (EFAs), removing items with factor loadings <0.3. Cronbach alphas were conducted for full and modified scales by gender. Using modified scales, unadjusted and adjusted regression models examined associations between 1. relevant socio-demographic and relationship determinants and SRP equity, and 2. SRP equity and sexual relationship related outcomes. All models adjusted for education, age, site, and current employment. Results: 235 sexually-active youth (66% women, median age = 20) were included. Mean scores across all 13 scale items were 2.71 (SD 0.30) for women and 2.70 (SD 0.4) for men. Scale Cronbach’s alphas were 0.63 for women and 0.64 for men. EFAs resulted in two gender-specific single-factor SRPS. Modified SRPS Cronbach alphas increased to 0.67 for women (8-items) and 0.70 for men (9-items). After adjusting for age, site and current employment, higher education remained associated with SRP equity across genders. In adjusted models, correlates of SRP equity included primary partnerships that were age-similar (<5 years older) and <2 years in length for women and living in Soweto and younger age for men. Greater SRP equity among women was also independently associated with no recent partner violence. Conclusions: Results highlight important gender differences in SRP equity measures and associations, highlighting the critically need for future research to examine gendered constructions of SRP equity in order to accurately develop, validate and use appropriate measures within quantitative surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Expanded HIV prevention options are needed to increase uptake of HIV prevention among women, especially in generalized epidemics. As the dapivirine vaginal ring moves forward through regulatory review and open-label extension studies, the potential public health impact and cost-effectiveness of this new prevention method are not fully known. We used mathematical modeling to explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of the ring in different implementation scenarios alongside scale-up of other HIV prevention interventions. Given the knowledge gaps about key factors influencing the ring’s implementation, including potential uptake and delivery costs, we engaged in a stakeholder consultation process to elicit plausible parameter ranges and explored scenarios to identify the possible range of impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness. Methods and findings: We used the Goals model to simulate scenarios of oral and ring pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) implementation among female sex workers and among other women ≤21 years or >21 years with multiple male partners, in Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. In these scenarios, we varied antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, dapivirine ring coverage and ring effectiveness (encompassing efficacy and adherence) by risk group. Following discussions with stakeholders, the maximum level of PrEP coverage (oral and/or ring) considered in each country was equal to modern contraception use minus condom use in the two age groups. We assessed results for 18 years, from 2018 to 2035. In South Africa, for example, the HIV infections averted by PrEP (ring plus oral PrEP) ranged from 310,000 under the highest-impact scenario (including ART held constant at 2017 levels, high ring coverage, and 85% ring effectiveness) to 55,000 under the lowest-impact scenario (including ART reaching the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets by 2020, low ring coverage, and 30% ring effectiveness). This represented a range of 6.4% to 2.2% of new HIV infections averted. Given our assumptions, the addition of the ring results in 11% to 132% more impact than oral PrEP alone. The cost per HIV infection averted for the ring ranged from US$13,000 to US$121,000. Conclusions: This analysis offers a wide range of scenarios given the considerable uncertainty over ring uptake, consistency of use, and effectiveness, as well as HIV testing, prevention, and treatment use over the next two decades. This could help inform donors and implementers as they decide where to allocate resources in order to maximize the impact of the dapivirine ring in light of funding and implementation constraints. Better understanding of the cost and potential uptake of the intervention would improve our ability to estimate its cost-effectiveness and assess where it can have the most impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a method for analyzing repeated residential movements based on graphical loglinear models. This method allows an explicit representation of residential presence and absence patterns from several areas without defining mobility measures. We make use of our method to analyze data from one of the most comprehensive demographic surveillance sites in Africa that is characterized by high adult HIV prevalence, high levels of poverty and unemployment and frequent residential changes. Between 2004 and 2016, residential changes were recorded for 8,857 men over 35,500.01 person-years, and for 12,158 women over 57,945.35 person-years. These individuals were HIV negative at baseline. Over the study duration, there were a total of 806 HIV seroconversions in men, and 2,458 HIV seroconversions in women. Our method indicates that establishing a residence outside the rural study area is a strong predictor of HIV seroconversion in men (OR = 2.003, 95% CI = [1.718,2.332]), but not in women. Residing inside the rural study area in a single or in multiple locations is a less significant risk factor for HIV acquisition in both men and women compared to moving outside the rural study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The study was conducted to determine the epidemiology and clinical profile of individuals with cleft lip and/or palate (CLP) utilizing specialized academic treatment centres in South Africa’s public health sector. Materials and methods: The Human Research Ethics Committee of the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg provided ethical approval for the study. We conducted a retrospective record review of all cases of CLP treated at the specialised academic centres for the two-year period from 1 January 2013 until 31 December 2014. We used a structured, pre-tested record review form to obtain demographic, clinical and treatment information on each CLP case. We used Stata 13 to analyse the data and conducted statistical tests at 5% significance level. Results: We analysed 699 records of individuals with CLP. The estimated prevalence of CLP in the South African public health sector was 0.3 per 1000 live births, with provincial variation of 0.1/1000 to 1.2/1000. The distribution of clefts was: 35.3% cleft palate; 34.6% cleft lip and palate; 19.0% cleft lip and other cleft anomalies at 2%. Of the total number of CLP, 47.5% were male and 52.5% female, and this difference was statistically significant (p<0.001). The majority of clefts occurred on the left for males (35.5%) and palate for females (43.4%), with a male predominance of unilateral cleft lip and palate (53.3%). Conclusion: The study findings should inform the implementation of South Africa’s planned birth defect surveillance system and health service planning for individuals with CLP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial analysis are emerging tools for global health, but it is unclear to what extent they have been applied to HIV research in Africa. To help inform researchers and program implementers, this scoping review documents the range and depth of published HIV-related GIS and spatial analysis research studies conducted in Africa. Methods: A systematic literature search for articles related to GIS and spatial analysis was conducted through PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases. Using pre-specified inclusion criteria, articles were screened and key data were abstracted. Grounded, inductive analysis was conducted to organize studies into meaningful thematic areas. Results and discussion: The search returned 773 unique articles, of which 65 were included in the final review. 15 different countries were represented. Over half of the included studies were published after 2014. Articles were categorized into the following non-mutually exclusive themes: (a) HIV geography, (b) HIV risk factors, and (c) HIV service implementation. Studies demonstrated a broad range of GIS and spatial analysis applications including characterizing geographic distribution of HIV, evaluating risk factors for HIV, and assessing and improving access to HIV care services. Conclusions: GIS and spatial analysis have been widely applied to HIV-related research in Africa. The current literature reveals a diversity of themes and methodologies and a relatively young, but rapidly growing, evidence base. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To estimate the cumulative incidence of self-reported suicide-related thoughts (SRTs) and suicide attempts (SAs) in males and females from 11 to 25 years of age in Canada.Methods: A cohort study was conducted by linking cycles 2 to 8 from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth, a representative survey of Canadians aged 11 to 25 years conducted from 1996 to 2009. The 11- to 25-year cumulative incidence of self-reported SRTs and SAs (with suicidal intent) was estimated in males and females using a novel application of a counting process approach to account for discontinuous risk intervals between survey cycles.Results: The risk of SRTs was 29% (95% confidence interval [CI], 26% to 31%) in females and 19% (95% CI, 16% to 23%) in males. The risk of SAs was 16% (95% CI, 14% to 19%) in females and 7% (95% CI, 6% to 8%) in males. Over 70% of SRTs and SAs first occur between 11 and 16 years of age and 30% between 11 and 13 years of age, respectively.Conclusions: The risk of SRTs and SAs is high in young Canadians, with most events first occurring in early to mid-adolescence and possibly earlier. Females are at a higher risk compared to males. This research underscores the need for better longitudinal surveillance of SRTs and SAs in the population. A counting process framework could be useful for future research using existing longitudinal surveys suffering from design limitations relating to gaps in respondent follow-up. Furthermore, these findings have implications for younger SRT and SA risk management by clinicians and earlier implementation of suicide prevention programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an arbovirus that emerged in the Americas in 2013. Infection with CHIKV is symptomatic in most of the cases and patients can develop chronic arthralgia that lasts from months to years in over 40% of the cases. The East-Central-South Africa (ECSA) genotype was introduced in Brazil in 2014, in Bahia State. Here we report the circulation of the CHIKV ECSA genotype in Piaui State, Northeast Brazil, during the years 2016-2017. The phylogenetic analysis revealed a single introduction of this lineage probably in 2015 and its maintenance at least until 2017. This analysis has also demonstrated the proximity of this genotype with isolates from neighboring States, and its partial nucleotide sequence of the viral E1 gene revealed a synapomorphy synonyms. This finding highlights the spread of the ECSA genotype in Brazil and supports its circulation in the Brazilian Northeast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: There is a notable absence of consensus on how to generate estimates of population-level incidence. Incidence is a considerably more sensitive indicator of epidemiological trends than prevalence, but is harder to estimate. We used a novel hybrid method to estimate HIV incidence by age and sex in a rural district of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Methods: Our novel method uses an ‘optimal weighting’ of estimates based on an implementation of a particular ‘synthetic cohort’ approach (interpreting the age/time structure of prevalence, in conjunction with estimates of excess mortality) and biomarkers of ‘recent infection’ (combining Lag-Avidity, Bio-Rad Avidity and viral load results to define recent infection, and adapting the method for age-specific incidence estimation). Data were obtained from a population-based cross-sectional HIV survey conducted in Mbongolwane and Eshowe health service areas in 2013. Results: Using the combined method, we find that age-specific HIV incidence in females rose rapidly during adolescence, from 1.33 cases/100 person-years (95% CI: 0.98,1.67) at age 15 to a peak of 5.01/100PY (4.14,5.87) at age 23. In males, incidence was lower, 0.34/100PY (0.00-0.74) at age 15, and rose later, peaking at 3.86/100PY (2.52-5.20) at age 30. Susceptible population-weighted average incidence in females aged 15-29 was estimated at 3.84/100PY (3.36-4.40), in males aged 15-29 at 1.28/100PY (0.68-1.50) and in all individuals aged 15-29 at 2.55/100PY (2.09-2.76). Using the conventional recency biomarker approach, we estimated HIV incidence among females aged 15-29 at 2.99/100PY (1.79-4.36), among males aged 15-29 at 0.87/100PY (0.22-1.60) and among all individuals aged 15-59 at 1.66/100PY (1.13-2.27). Discussion: HIV incidence was very high in women aged 15-30, peaking in the early 20s. Men had lower incidence, which peaked at age 30. The estimates obtained from the hybrid method are more informative than those produced by conventional analysis of biomarker data, and represents a more optimal use of available data than either the age-continuous biomarker or synthetic cohort methods alone. The method is mainly useful at younger ages, where excess mortality is low and uncertainty in the synthetic cohort estimates is reasonably small. Conclusion: Application of this method to large-scale population-based HIV prevalence surveys is likely to result in improved incidence surveillance over methods currently in wide use. Reasonably accurate and precise age-specific estimates of incidence are important to target better prevention, diagnosis and care strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Africa has a Universal Test and Treat (UTT) policy in place to ensure that everyone tests for HIV and can access treatment if they test positive. The aim of this study is to document the pathways that older South Africans who are living with HIV take to access testing and treatment in this context. Despite the aging of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and clear evidence that testing older persons (over age 50) is necessary, very little is known about the circumstances under which older persons test for HIV or their motivations for doing so. In this study, we analyze 21 qualitative, in-depth interviews with women and men aged 50 and over who are living with HIV from two townships outside of Cape Town. Using grounded theory to specify emerging themes, we find similarities and differences between older men and women in their pathways to testing. Men primarily test for HIV when their spouse is diagnosed or in connection with TB testing and treatment. Older women, who are more likely to be widowed or divorced, often test for HIV only when they are symptomatic or not responding appropriately to care for non-communicable diseases. Most importantly, we find that older South Africans do not seek testing as a response to risk. Instead, older men and women test only once they are symptomatic and referred by a provider, or as a result of a partner’s status. Our respondents, particularly the women, expressed “shock” and confusion at learning they were HIV-positive because they do not see themselves as at risk of acquiring HIV. Because the benefits of UTT are greatest with early detection and treatment, older persons’ tendency to test at such a late stage of illness decreases the individual and population level advantages of UTT. More research is needed to understand older persons’ risk and testing behavior so that policy and programs include HIV testing messages that reach this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and bacterial vaginosis (BV) are associated with increased transmission of HIV, and poor reproductive and sexual health. The burden of STIs/BV among young people is unknown in many high HIV prevalence settings. We conducted an acceptability, feasibility, and prevalence study of home-based sampling for STIs/BV among young men and women aged 15-24 years old in a health and demographic surveillance site (HDSS) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.Methods and Findings: A total of 1,342 young people, stratified by age (15-19 and 20-24 years) and sex were selected from the HDSS sampling frame; 1,171/1,342 (87%) individuals had ≥1 attempted home visit between 4 October 2016 and 31 January 2017, of whom 790 (67%) were successfully contacted. Among the 645 who were contacted and eligible, 447 (69%) enrolled. Consenting/assenting participants were interviewed, and blood, self-collected urine (men), and vaginal swabs (women) were tested for herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis, trichomoniasis, and BV. Both men and women reported that sample collection was easy. Participants disagreed that sampling was painful; more than half of the participants disagreed that they felt anxious or embarrassed. The weighted prevalence of STIs/BV among men and women, respectively, was 5.3% and 11.2% for chlamydia, 1.5% and 1.8% for gonorrhoea, 0% and 0.4% for active syphilis, 0.6% and 4.6% for trichomoniasis, 16.8% and 28.7% for HSV-2, and 42.1% for BV (women only). Of the women with ≥1 curable STI, 75% reported no symptoms. Factors associated with STIs/BV included having older age, being female, and not being in school or working. Among those who participated in the 2016 HIV serosurvey, the prevalence of HIV was 5.6% among men and 19% among women. Feasibility was impacted by the short study duration and the difficulty finding men at home.Conclusions: A high prevalence of STIs/BV was found in this rural setting with high HIV prevalence in South Africa. Most STIs and HIV infections were asymptomatic and would not have been identified or treated under national syndromic management guidelines. A nested STI/BV survey within a HDSS proved acceptable and feasible. This is a proof of concept for population-based STI surveillance in low- and middle-income countries that could be utilised in the evaluation of STI/HIV prevention and control programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bloodstream infection (BSI) in children causes significant morbidity and mortality. There are few studies describing the epidemiology of BSI in South African children.Methods: A retrospective descriptive cohort study was conducted at a paediatric referral hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. The National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) microbiology database was accessed to identify positive blood culture specimens during the period 2011-2012. Demographic and clinical details, antimicrobial management and patient outcome information were extracted from medical and laboratory records. Antibiotic susceptibility results of identified organisms were obtained from the NHLS database.Results: Of the 693 unique bacterial and fungal BSI episodes identified during the study period, 248 (35.8%) were community-acquired (CA), 371 (53.5%) hospital-acquired (HA) and 74 (10.7%) healthcare-associated (HCA). The overall risk was 6.7 BSI episodes per 1000 admissions. Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae were the most frequent causes of CA-BSI and Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumanii and S.aureus were most commonly isolated in HA-BSI. On multivariable analysis, severe underweight, severe anaemia at the time of BSI, admission in the ICU at the time of BSI, and requiring ICU admission after BSI was diagnosed were significantly associated with 14-day mortality.Conclusion: This study adds to the limited literature describing BSI in children in Africa. Further studies are required to understand the impact that BSI has on the paediatric population in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to describe the field experiences and recommendations of clinic-based health care providers (HCP) regarding the implementation of universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Methods: In Hlabisa sub-district, the local HIV programme of the Department of Health (DoH) is decentralized in 18 clinics, where ART was offered at a CD4 count ≤500 cells/μL from January 2015 to September 2016. Within the ANRS 12249 TasP trial, implemented in part of the sub-district, universal ART (no eligibility criteria) was offered in 11 mobile clinics between March 2012 and June 2016. A cross-sectional qualitative survey was conducted in April–July 2016 among clinic-based nurses and counsellors providing HIV care in the DoH and TasP trial clinics. In total, 13 individual interviews and two focus groups discussions (including 6 and 7 participants) were conducted, audio-recorded, transcribed, and thematically analyzed. Results: All HCPs reported an overall good experience of delivering ART early in the course of HIV infection, with most patients willing to initiate ART before being symptomatic. Yet, HCPs underlined that not feeling sick could challenge early ART initiation and adherence, and thus highlighted the need to take time for counselling as an important component to achieve universal ART. HCPs also foresaw logistical challenges of universal ART, and were especially concerned about increasing workload and ART shortage. HCPs finally recommended the need to strengthen the existing model of care to facilitate access to ART, e.g., community-based and integrated HIV services. Conclusions: The provision of universal ART is feasible and acceptable according to HCPs in this rural South-African area. However their experiences suggest that universal ART, and more generally the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets, will be difficult to achieve without the implementation of new models of health service delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Community health worker (CHW) programs are believed to be poorly coordinated, poorly integrated into national health systems, and lacking long-term support. Duplication of services, fragmentation, and resource limitations may have impeded the potential impact of CHWs for achieving HIV goals. This study assesses mediators of a more harmonized approach to implementing large-scale CHW programs for HIV in the context of complex health systems and multiple donors.Methods and Findings: We undertook four country case studies in Lesotho, Mozambique, South Africa, and Swaziland between August 2015 and May 2016. We conducted 60 semistructured interviews with donors, government officials, and expert observers involved in CHW programs delivering HIV services. Interviews were triangulated with published literature, country reports, national health plans, and policies. Data were analyzed based on 3 priority areas of harmonization (coordination, integration, and sustainability) and 5 components of a conceptual framework (the health issue, intervention, stakeholders, health system, and context) to assess facilitators and barriers to harmonization of CHW programs. CHWs supporting HIV programs were found to be highly fragmented and poorly integrated into national health systems. Stakeholders generally supported increasing harmonization, although they recognized several challenges and disadvantages to harmonization. Key facilitators to harmonization included (i) a large existing national CHW program and recognition of nongovernmental CHW programs, (ii) use of common incentives and training processes for CHWs, (iii) existence of an organizational structure dedicated to community health initiatives, and (iv) involvement of community leaders in decision-making. Key barriers included a wide range of stakeholders and lack of ownership and accountability of non-governmental CHW programs. Limitations of our study include subjectively selected case studies, our focus on decision-makers, and limited generalizability beyond the countries analyzed.Conclusion: CHW programs for HIV in Southern Africa are fragmented, poorly integrated, and lack long-term support. We provide 5 policy recommendations to harmonize CHW programs in order to strengthen and sustain the role of CHWs in HIV service delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of severe bacterial infections globally. A full understanding of the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) on pneumococcal disease burden, following its introduction in 2009 in South Africa, can support national policy on PCV use and assist with policy decisions elsewhere. Methods: We developed a model to estimate the national burden of severe pneumococcal disease, i.e. disease requiring hospitalisation, pre- (2005–2008) and post-PCV introduction (2012–2013) in children aged 0–59 months in South Africa. We estimated case numbers for invasive pneumococcal disease using data from the national laboratory-based surveillance, adjusted for specimen-taking practices. We estimated non-bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia case numbers using vaccine probe study data. To estimate pneumococcal deaths, we applied observed case fatality ratios to estimated case numbers. Estimates were stratified by HIV status to account for the impact of PCV and HIV-related interventions. We assessed how different assumptions affected estimates using a sensitivity analysis. Bootstrapping created confidence intervals. Results: In the pre-vaccine era, a total of approximately 107,600 (95% confidence interval [CI] 83,000–140,000) cases of severe hospitalised pneumococcal disease were estimated to have occurred annually. Following PCV introduction and the improvement in HIV interventions, 41,800 (95% CI 28,000–50,000) severe pneumococcal disease cases were estimated in 2012–2013, a rate reduction of 1,277 cases per 100,000 child-years. Approximately 5000 (95% CI 3000–6000) pneumococcal-related annual deaths were estimated in the pre-vaccine period and 1,900 (95% CI 1000–2500) in 2012–2013, a mortality rate difference of 61 per 100,000 child-years. Conclusions: While a large number of hospitalisations and deaths due to pneumococcal disease still occur among children 0–59 months in South Africa, we found a large reduction in this estimate that is temporally associated with PCV introduction. In HIV-infected individuals the scale-up of other interventions, such as improvements in HIV care, may have also contributed to the declines in pneumococcal burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cardiovascular risk factors are increasing in most developing countries. To date, however, very little standardized data has been collected on the primary risk factors across the spectrum of economic development. Data are particularly sparse from Africa.Methods: In the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) we examined population-based samples of men and women, ages 25-45 of African ancestry in metropolitan Chicago, Kingston, Jamaica, rural Ghana, Cape Town, South Africa, and the Seychelles. Key measures of cardiovascular disease risk are described.Results: The risk factor profile varied widely in both total summary estimates of cardiovascular risk and in the magnitude of component factors. Hypertension ranged from 7% in women from Ghana to 35% in US men. Total cholesterol was well under 200 mg/dl for all groups, with a mean of 155 mg/dl among men in Ghana, South Africa and Jamaica. Among women total cholesterol values varied relatively little by country, following between 160 and 178 mg/dl for all 5 groups. Levels of HDL-C were virtually identical in men and women from all study sites. Obesity ranged from 64% among women in the US to 2% among Ghanaian men, with a roughly corresponding trend in diabetes. Based on the Framingham risk score a clear trend toward higher total risk in association with socioeconomic development was observed among men, while among women there was considerable overlap, with the US participants having only a modestly higher risk score.Conclusions: These data provide a comprehensive estimate of cardiovascular risk across a range of countries at differing stages of social and economic development and demonstrate the heterogeneity in the character and degree of emerging cardiovascular risk. Severe hypercholesterolemia, as characteristic in the US and much of Western Europe at the onset of the coronary epidemic, is unlikely to be a feature of the cardiovascular risk profile in these countries in the foreseeable future, suggesting that stroke may remain the dominant cardiovascular event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets require that, by 2020, 90% of those living with HIV know their status, 90% of known HIV-positive individuals receive sustained antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 90% of individuals on ART have durable viral suppression. The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial is measuring the impact of a universal testing and treatment intervention on population-level HIV incidence in 21 urban communities in Zambia and South Africa. We report observational data from four communities in Zambia to assess progress towards the UNAIDS targets after 1 y of the PopART intervention.Methods and Findings: The PopART intervention comprises annual rounds of home-based HIV testing delivered by community HIV-care providers (CHiPs) who also support linkage to care, ART retention, and other services. Data from four communities in Zambia receiving the full intervention (including immediate ART for all individuals with HIV) were used to determine proportions of participants who knew their HIV status after the CHiP visit; proportions linking to care and initiating ART following referral; and overall proportions of HIV-infected individuals who knew their status (first 90 target) and the proportion of these on ART (second 90 target), pre- and post-intervention. We are not able to assess progress towards the third 90 target at this stage of the study. Overall, 121,130 adults (59,283 men and 61,847 women) were enumerated in 46,714 households during the first annual round (December 2013 to June 2015). Of the 45,399 (77%) men and 55,703 (90%) women consenting to the intervention, 80% of men and 85% of women knew their HIV status after the CHiP visit. Of 6,197 HIV-positive adults referred by CHiPs, 42% (95% CI: 40%-43%) initiated ART within 6 mo and 53% (95% CI: 52%-55%) within 12 mo. In the entire population, the estimated proportion of HIV-positive adults who knew their status increased from 52% to 78% for men and from 56% to 87% for women. The estimated proportion of known HIV-positive individuals on ART increased overall from 54% after the CHiP visit to 74% by the end of the round for men and from 53% to 73% for women. The estimated overall proportion of HIV-positive adults on ART, irrespective of whether they knew their status, increased from 44% to 61%, compared with the 81% target (the product of the first two 90 targets). Coverage was lower among young men and women than in older age groups. The main limitation of the study was the need for assumptions concerning knowledge of HIV status and ART coverage among adults not consenting to the intervention or HIV testing, although our conclusions were robust in sensitivity analyses.Conclusions: In this analysis, acceptance of HIV testing among those consenting to the intervention was high, although linkage to care and ART initiation took longer than expected. Knowledge of HIV-positive status increased steeply after 1 y, almost attaining the first 90 target in women and approaching it in men. The second 90 target was more challenging, with approximately three-quarters of known HIV-positive individuals on ART by the end of the annual round. Achieving higher test uptake in men and more rapid linkage to care will be key objectives during the second annual round of the intervention.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01900977. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: South Africa has a large domestically funded HIV programme with highly saturated coverage levels for most prevention and treatment interventions. To further optimise its allocative efficiency, we designed a novel optimisation method and examined whether the optimal package of interventions changes when interaction and non-linear scale-up effects are incorporated into cost-effectiveness analysis.Methods: The conventional league table method in cost-effectiveness analysis relies on the assumption of independence between interventions. We added methodology that allowed the simultaneous consideration of a large number of HIV interventions and their potentially diminishing marginal returns to scale. We analysed the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 16 HIV interventions based on a well-calibrated epidemiological model that accounted for interaction and non-linear scale-up effects, a custom cost model, and an optimisation routine that iteratively added the most cost-effective intervention onto a rolling baseline before evaluating all remaining options. We compared our results with those based on a league table.Results: The rank order of interventions did not differ substantially between the two methods- in each, increasing condom availability and male medical circumcision were found to be most cost-effective, followed by anti-retroviral therapy at current guidelines. However, interventions were less cost-effective throughout when evaluated under the optimisation method, indicating substantial diminishing marginal returns, with ICERs being on average 437% higher under our optimisation routine.Conclusions: Conventional league tables may exaggerate the cost-effectiveness of interventions when programmes are implemented at scale. Accounting for interaction and non-linear scale-up effects provides more realistic estimates in highly saturated real-world settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]