Search

Objectives: Increasing walking and cycling, and reducing motorised transport, are health and environmental priorities. This paper examines levels and trends in the use of different commute modes in England and Wales, both overall and with respect to small-area deprivation. It also investigates whether commute modal share can serve as a proxy for travel behaviour more generally. Methods: 23.7 million adult commuters reported their usual main mode of travelling to work in the 2011 census in England and Wales; similar data were available for 1971–2001. Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to characterise socio-economic patterning. The National Travel Survey (2002–2010) was used to examine correlations between commute modal share and modal share of total travel time. These correlations were calculated across 150 non-overlapping populations defined by region, year band and income. Results: Among commuters in 2011, 67.1% used private motorised transport as their usual main commute mode (−1.8 percentage-point change since 2001); 17.8% used public transport (+1.8% change); 10.9% walked (−0.1% change); and 3.1% cycled (+0.1% change). Walking and, to a marginal extent, cycling were more common among those from deprived areas, but these gradients had flattened over the previous decade to the point of having essentially disappeared for cycling. In the National Travel Survey, commute modal share and total modal share were reasonably highly correlated for private motorised transport (r = 0.94), public transport (r = 0.96), walking (r = 0.88 excluding London) and cycling (r = 0.77). Conclusions: England and Wales remain car-dependent, but the trends are slightly more encouraging. Unlike many health behaviours, it is more common for socio-economically disadvantaged groups to commute using physically active modes. This association is, however, weakening and may soon reverse for cycling. At a population level, commute modal share provides a reasonable proxy for broader travel patterns, enhancing the value of the census in characterising background trends and evaluating interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Women are on average diagnosed with diabetes mellitus at later age than men but have higher mortality. As the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus is primarily based on HbA1c, the use of a non-specific reference range and cut point for diabetes mellitus that does not account for gender differences in diabetes could potentially lead to underdiagnosis of diabetes mellitus in women and missed opportunities for intervention. We investigated whether a contributing factor to the later diagnosis in women may be a difference in distribution of HbA1c in premenopausal women versus men of the same age by comparing HbA1c values in men and women across multiple sites in the UK. Methods: We analysed the HbA1c levels of 146,907 individuals who underwent single testing only and had HbA1c ≤ 50 mmol/mol between 2012 and 2019 in one laboratory (cohort 1). This was replicated in six laboratories with 938,678 individuals tested between 2019 and 2021 (cohort 2). Results: In cohort 1, women < 50 years old had an HbA1c distribution markedly lower than that in men by a mean of 1.6 mmol/mol (p < 0.0001), while the difference in the distribution of HbA1c for individuals aged ≥ 50 years was less pronounced (mean difference 0.9 mmol/mol, p < 0.0001). For individuals under the age of 50, HbA1c in women lagged by up to 10 years compared to men. Similar findings were found in cohort 2. We estimated an additional 17% (n = 34,953) of undiagnosed women aged < 50 years in England and Wales could be reclassified to have diabetes mellitus, which may contribute to up to 64% of the difference in mortality rates between men/women with diabetes mellitus aged 16–50 years. Conclusion: The HbA1c cut point for diagnosis of diabetes mellitus may need to be re-evaluated in women under the age of 50 years. Early identification of diabetes mellitus in women has the potential to improve women's health outcomes in the longer term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Psychiatric mother and baby units (MBUs) are recommended for severe perinatal mental illness, but effectiveness compared with other forms of acute care remains unknown.Aims: We hypothesised that women admitted to MBUs would be less likely to be readmitted to acute care in the 12 months following discharge, compared with women admitted to non-MBU acute care (generic psychiatric wards or crisis resolution teams (CRTs)).Method: Quasi-experimental cohort study of women accessing acute psychiatric care up to 1 year postpartum in 42 healthcare organisations across England and Wales. Primary outcome was readmission within 12 months post-discharge. Propensity scores were used to account for systematic differences between MBU and non-MBU participants. Secondary outcomes included assessment of cost-effectiveness, experience of services, unmet needs, perceived bonding, observed mother-infant interaction quality and safeguarding outcome.Results: Of 279 women, 108 (39%) received MBU care, 62 (22%) generic ward care and 109 (39%) CRT care only. The MBU group (n = 105) had similar readmission rates to the non-MBU group (n = 158) (aOR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.86-1.04, P = 0.29; an absolute difference of -5%, 95% CI -14 to 4%). Service satisfaction was significantly higher among women accessing MBUs compared with non-MBUs; no significant differences were observed for any other secondary outcomes.Conclusions: We found no significant differences in rates of readmission, but MBU advantage might have been masked by residual confounders; readmission will also depend on quality of care after discharge and type of illness. Future studies should attempt to identify the effective ingredients of specialist perinatal in-patient and community care to improve outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infection with the Cryptosporidium parasite causes over 4000 cases of diagnosed illness (cryptosporidiosis) in England and Wales each year. The incidence of sporadic disease has not been sufficiently established, and how frequently this arises from contact with other infected people is not well documented. This project aimed to explore potential transmission in the home and attempt to identify asymptomatic infections, which might play a role in transmission. Risk factors and characteristics associated with spread of infection in the home were described including any differences between Cryptosporidium species.Methods: The study identified cryptosporidiosis cases from North West England and Wales over a year and invited them and their household to take part. Each household was sent a study pack containing study information and a questionnaire, and stool sample kits to provide samples from consenting household members. Cryptosporidium-positive stool samples, identified by immunofluorescence microscopy, were characterised using molecular methods to help describe any patterns of transmission. Characteristics of households with and without additional cases were described, and compared using odds ratios (OR) and a multivariable logistic regression identified independent risk factors for household transmission. Data collection ran for one year, beginning in September 2018 with an initial pilot phase.Results: We enrolled 128 index cases and their households. Additional illness occurred in over a quarter of homes, each reporting an average of two additional cases. The majority of these were undiagnosed and unreported to surveillance. This burden was even greater in households where the index case was infected with C. hominis versus C. parvum, or the index case was under five years old, with mums and siblings most at risk of secondary infection. Only having an index case of C. hominis was independently associated with transmission in the multivariable model (OR 4.46; p = 0.01).Conclusions: Cryptosporidium was a considerable burden in the home. At-risk homes were those where the index was less than five years old and/or infected with C. hominis. Of particular risk were female caregivers and siblings. Hygiene advice should be specifically directed here. This work provides evidence for humans as sources of C. hominis infection and that person-person is a key pathway. We recommend that all stools submitted for the investigation of gastrointestinal pathogens are tested for Cryptosporidium to better capture cases, inclusion of speciation data in routine surveillance, and the consideration of specific clinical advice on prevention for high-risk homes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article summarizes a study evaluating the relation between high ambient temperatures with the changes in the risk of myocardial infarction on an hourly timescale. Paper-adds including data at an hourly temporal resolution from 11 conurbations in England and Wales showed that higher temperatures were associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction, with reductions in risk at longer lags being consistent with heat, in the six hours after exposure, above a threshold of 20°C.

This paper highlights the increasing concerns relating to hydroenvironmetal issues and cites recent examples of the challenges now being regularly faced by hydroenvironmetal scientists and engineers. The limitations and restrictions of both physical (or laboratory) and numerical (or computer based) hydraulic models used in the planning and management of aquatic basins are discussed. General details are given of numerical models used for flow and water quality concentration predictions in estuarine waters, with particular application to the challenges occurring along the South Wales coast. A highly accurate and non-diffusive finite difference scheme that solves the transport equation for predicting water quality indicators and suspended sediment concentration distributions is also discussed. In particular, details are outlined of the extension of the water quality indicators of faecal coliforms, as required to comply with the EU Bathing Water Directive, to predict health risk assessment, in the form of predicting the risk of gastroenteritis.Three example research projects along the South Wales coast are described; the projects involve the application of two-dimensional and three-dimensional hydroenvironmetal models to predict flow patterns and water quality indicator organism distributions in the coastal receiving waters. These studies include: (i) a curvilinear finite difference approach to modelling flows in the Bristol Channel, (ii) coastal health risk predictions in Swansea Bay using combined water quality and epidemiological models, and (iii) combined sewer overflow discharges into Cardiff Bay. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prescribing high doses of methotrexate increases the potentially fatal risk of toxicity. To minimise risk, it is recommended that only 2.5 mg tablets are used.Aim: To describe trends in GP prescribing of methotrexate over time; the harm associated with methotrexate errors at a national level; ascertain variation between practices and clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) in their implementation of the safety guidance; and map current variations at CCG and practice level.Design and Setting: A retrospective cohort study of English GP prescribing data (August 2010-April 2018), and data acquired via freedom of information (FOI) requests.Method: The main outcome measures were: variation in ratio of non-adherent/adherent prescribing, geographically and over time, between practices and CCGs; and description of responses to FOI requests.Results: Of 7349 practices in England, 1689 prescribed both 2.5 mg and 10 mg tablets to individual patients in 2017, breaching national guidance. In April 2018, 697 practices (≥90th percentile) prescribed >14.3% of all methotrexate as 10 mg tablets, likewise breaching national guidance. The 66 practices at ≥99th percentile gave >52.4% of all prescribed methotrexate in the form of 10 mg tablets. The prescribing of 10 mg tablets fell during the study period, with 10 mg tablets as a proportion of all prescribed methotrexate tablets falling from 9.1% to 3.4%. Twenty-one deaths caused by methotrexate poisoning were reported from 1993-2017 in England and Wales.Conclusion: The prevalence of unsafe methotrexate prescribing has reduced but remains common, with substantial variation between practices and CCGs. The authors recommend investment in better strategies around implementation. As 21 deaths that occurred from 1993-2017 in England and Wales were attributed to methotrexate poisoning, the coroners' reports for these deaths should be reviewed to identify recurring themes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Scotland has disproportionately high rates of suicide compared with England. An analysis of trends may help reveal whether rates appear driven more by birth cohort, period or age. A 'birth cohort effect' for England & Wales has been previously reported by Gunnell et al. (B J Psych 182:164-70, 2003). This study replicates this analysis for Scotland, makes comparisons between the countries, and provides information on 'vulnerable' cohorts.Methods: Suicide and corresponding general population data were obtained from the National Records of Scotland, 1950 to 2014. Age and gender specific mortality rates were estimated. Age, period and cohort patterns were explored graphically by trend analysis.Results: A pattern was found whereby successive male birth cohorts born after 1940 experienced higher suicide rates, in increasingly younger age groups, echoing findings reported for England & Wales. Young men (aged 20-39) were found to have a marked and statistically significant increase in suicide between those in the 1960 and 1965 birth cohorts. The 1965 cohort peaked in suicide rate aged 35-39, and the subsequent 1970 cohort peaked even younger, aged 25-29; it is possible that these 1965 and 1970 cohorts are at greater mass vulnerability to suicide than earlier cohorts. This was reflected in data for England & Wales, but to a lesser extent. Suicide rates associated with male birth cohorts subsequent to 1975 were less severe, and not statistically significantly different from earlier cohorts, suggestive of an amelioration of any possible influential 'cohort' effect. Scottish female suicide rates for all age groups converged and stabilised over time. Women have not been as affected as men, with less variation in patterns by different birth cohorts and with a much less convincing corresponding pattern suggestive of a 'cohort' effect.Conclusions: Trend analysis is useful in identifying 'vulnerable' cohorts, providing opportunities to develop suicide prevention strategies addressing these cohorts as they age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluated clinical Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 infections in England and Wales during 1983-2012 to describe changes in microbiological and surveillance methods. A strain replacement event was captured; phage type (PT) 2 decreased to account for just 3% of cases by 2012, whereas PT8 and PT21/28 strains concurrently emerged, constituting almost two thirds of cases by 2012. Despite interventions to control and reduce transmission, incidence remained constant. However, sources of infection changed over time; outbreaks caused by contaminated meat and milk declined, suggesting that interventions aimed at reducing meat cross-contamination were effective. Petting farm and school and nursery outbreaks increased, suggesting the emergence of other modes of transmission and potentially contributing to the sustained incidence over time. Studies assessing interventions and consideration of policies and guidance should be undertaken to reduce Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O157 infections in England and Wales in line with the latest epidemiologic findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2010, the "Tackling Suicide on the Railways" programme was launched as a joint initiative among Network Rail, the Samaritans and other key organisations such as the British Transport Police and train operators to achieve a 20% reduction in railway suicides from 2010 to 2015 in Great Britain. We report the most recent age and sex specific trends in railway suicide in England and Wales from 2000 to 2013 and examine whether the initiative's target reduction in railway suicides is likely to be achieved.Methods: Population data and suicide mortality data (all methods combined and railway) for England and Wales were obtained from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and used to calculate age and gender specific rates for deaths registered from 2000 to 2013. Data on railway suicides were also obtained from the Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) and compared with ONS data. We used joinpoint regression to identify changes in suicide trends across the study period.Results: The railway was used in 4.1% of all suicides in England and Wales (RSSB data were similar to ONS data for most years). Suicides in all persons from all causes decreased from 2000 to 2007, with small increases from 2008 until 2013; this rise was entirely due to an increase in male suicides. Railway suicide rates increased over the entire study period; the proportion of railway suicides in all persons increased from 3.5 to 4.9% during the study period. This trend was also mainly driven by increases in male suicides as female railway suicide rates remained steady over time. The highest age specific railway suicide rates were observed in middle aged men and women. Although there was no conclusive evidence of an increase in ONS railway suicides, RSSB data showed a statistically significant increase in railway suicides in males from 2009 onwards.Conclusion: The continued rise in male railway suicide in England and Wales is concerning, particularly due to the high economic costs and psychological trauma associated with these deaths. The initiative's target of a 20% reduction in railway suicide is unlikely to be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2011–2012 a large pertussis outbreak occurred in England. This provided an opportunity to estimate the disease burden in those aged 5 years and over. As pertussis is likely to be under reported both laboratory-confirmed and non-confirmed cases were included. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed cases of pertussis, as well as their coughing but non-confirmed household members, were sent a questionnaire that collected information on clinical features and quality of life for the most severe day of disease and the day the patient filled in the questionnaire. The EuroQol-5 dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) was used to evaluate quality of life. The duration of symptoms was obtained by contacting the patient every two weeks until symptoms stopped. Results: Data for 535 (out of 1262) laboratory confirmed pertussis patients and 44 (out of 140) coughing household contacts was available for analysis. On the most severe day, 56% of laboratory-confirmed cases reported they had 20+ more paroxysms, 58% reported they had a severe cough and 46% reported disruption of sleep for more than 4 hours. For non-confirmed coughing household contacts there were a similar number of coughing spells per day at the height, though the cough was reported to be less severe and to cause less sleep disruption. The main clinical symptoms on the worst day for both were shortness of breath, tiredness, sore ribs and vomiting. The duration of symptoms for both patient groups was around 160 days (162 and 168 days). Under base case assumptions the overall loss of quality of life was 0.097 QALY (0.089–0.106) for confirmed pertussis cases and 0.0365 QALY (0.023–0.054) for coughing household contacts. Conclusion: Pertussis is a serious disease in those aged 5 years and over, causing disruption of sleep and daily activities over long period of time. The burden of illness due to undiagnosed pertussis is also considerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the leading genetic cause of end-stage renal failure (ESRF). The epidemiology of the incident ADPKD patient cohort requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England and Wales has not been described. Methods We used a retrospective cohort design. Incident adult patients commencing RRT between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2011 in England and Wales were identified from the UK Renal Registry. Patients were stratified into three groups based on primary renal diagnosis (PRD): (i) ADPKD, (ii) diabetes as PRD, (iii) individuals with another PRD (‘other’). Baseline demographics, comorbidity, care-related measures and outcomes including patient survival are described. Results A total of 52 608 individuals started RRT during the study period, 3598 (6.8%) had ADPKD, 12 137 (23.1%) diabetes as PRD and 36 873 had another PRD diagnosis. The median age of commencing RRT was 55 years in the ADPKD group compared with 62 and 66 years in those with diabetes or ‘other’ PRD, respectively. The median age of starting RRT did not change within the ADPKD group over the 10-year period. Median age at death was similar across all groups. The ADPKD group had a lower hazard for all-cause mortality compared with the ‘other’ PRD group (adjusted hazard ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.38–0.53). In all PRD groups, crude mortality rates had improved between 2000–06 and 2007–11. Conclusion Although engaged in renal services earlier than some other patient groups, individuals with ADPKD start RRT at a younger age and this has remained unchanged over the last decade. Developing a nationwide cohort and an enhanced disease-specific dataset would facilitate a wide range of research and quality improvement initiatives to try to modify progression to ESRF and the course of RRT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Changes in children’s contact patterns between termtime and school holidays affect the transmission of several respiratory-spread infections. Transmission of varicella zoster virus (VZV), the causative agent of chickenpox, has also been linked to the school calendar in several settings, but temporal changes in the proportion of young children attending childcare centres may have influenced this relationship. Methods: We used two modelling methods (a simple difference equations model and a Time series Susceptible Infectious Recovered (TSIR) model) to estimate fortnightly values of a contact parameter (the per capita rate of effective contact between two specific individuals), using GP consultation data for chickenpox in England and Wales from 1967–2008. Results: The estimated contact parameters were 22–31% lower during the summer holiday than during termtime. The relationship between the contact parameter and the school calendar did not change markedly over the years analysed. Conclusions: In England and Wales, reductions in contact between children during the school summer holiday lead to a reduction in the transmission of VZV. These estimates are relevant for predicting how closing schools and nurseries may affect an outbreak of an emerging respiratory-spread pathogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of wild bird populations as a reservoir of zoonotic pathogens is well established. Salmonellosis is a frequently diagnosed infectious cause of mortality of garden birds in England and Wales, predominantly caused by Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhimurium definitive phage types 40, 56(v) and 160. In Britain, these phage types are considered highly host-adapted with a high degree of genetic similarity amongst isolates, and in some instances are clonal. Pulsed field gel electrophoresis, however, demonstrated minimal variation amongst matched DT40 and DT56(v) isolates derived from passerine and human incidents of salmonellosis across England in 2000–2007. Also, during the period 1993–2012, similar temporal and spatial trends of infection with these S. Typhimurium phage types occurred in both the British garden bird and human populations; 1.6% of all S. Typhimurium (0.2% of all Salmonella) isolates from humans in England and Wales over the period 2000–2010. These findings support the hypothesis that garden birds act as the primary reservoir of infection for these zoonotic bacteria. Most passerine salmonellosis outbreaks identified occurred at and around feeding stations, which are likely sites of public exposure to sick or dead garden birds and their faeces. We, therefore, advise the public to practise routine personal hygiene measures when feeding wild birds and especially when handling sick wild birds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Circulatory disease mortality inequalities by country of birth (COB) have been demonstrated for some EU countries but pan-European analyses are lacking. We examine inequalities in circulatory mortality by geographical region/COB for six EU countries. Methods: We obtained national death and population data from Denmark, England and Wales, France, the Netherlands, Scotland and Sweden. Mortality rate ratios (MRRs) were constructed to examine differences in circulatory, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease mortality by geographical region/COB in 35–74 years old men and women. Results: South Asians in Denmark, England and Wales and France experienced excess circulatory disease mortality (MRRs 1.37–1.91). Similar results were seen for Eastern Europeans in these countries as well as in Sweden (MRRs 1.05–1.51), for those of Middle Eastern origin in Denmark (MRR = 1.49) and France (MRR = 1.15), and for East and West sub-Saharan Africans in England and Wales (MRRs 1.28 and 1.39) and France (MRRs 1.24 and 1.22). Low ratios were observed for East Asians in France, Scotland and Sweden (MRRs 0.64–0.50). Sex-specific analyses showed results of similar direction but different effect sizes. The pattern for IHD mortality was similar to that for circulatory disease mortality. Two- to three-fold excess cerebrovascular disease mortality was found for several foreign-born groups compared with the local-born populations in some countries. Conclusions: Circulatory disease mortality varies by geographical region/COB within six EU countries. Excess mortality was observed for some migrant populations, less for others. Reliable pan-European data are needed for monitoring and understanding mortality inequalities in Europe’s multiethnic populations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a major public health burden, causing 80,000 deaths annually in England and Wales, with major inequalities. However, there are no recent analyses of age-specific socioeconomic trends in mortality. We analysed annual trends in inequalities in age-specific CHD mortality rates in small areas in England, grouped into deprivation quintiles. Methods: We calculated CHD mortality rates for 10-year age groups (from 35 to ≥85 years) using three year moving averages between 1982 and 2006. We used Joinpoint regression to identify significant turning points in age- sex- and deprivation-specific time trends. We also analysed trends in absolute and relative inequalities in age-standardised rates between the least and most deprived areas. Results: Between 1982 and 2006, CHD mortality fell by 62.2% in men and 59.7% in women. Falls were largest for the most deprived areas with the highest initial level of CHD mortality. However, a social gradient in the pace of fall was apparent, being steepest in the least deprived quintile. Thus, while absolute inequalities narrowed over the period, relative inequalities increased. From 2000, declines in mortality rates slowed or levelled off in the youngest groups, notably in women aged 45–54 in the least deprived groups. In contrast, from age 55 years and older, rates of fall in CHD mortality accelerated in the 2000s, likewise falling fastest in the least deprived quintile. Conclusions: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates have declined substantially in England, with the steepest falls in the most affluent quintiles. However, this concealed contrasting patterns in underlying age-specific rates. From 2000, mortality rates levelled off in the youngest groups but accelerated in middle aged and older groups. Mortality analyses by small areas could provide potentially valuable insights into possible drivers of inequalities, and thus inform future strategies to reduce CHD mortality across all social groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: In 2009 more women attended cervical screening in England and Wales than in the previous year. Described as the 'Jade Goody Effect' this was attributed to the death from cervical cancer of a UK celebrity. The present study aimed to establish which sociodemographic characteristics were associated with being influenced by Jade Goody's story. Methods: Data were collected as part of a Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS) omnibus survey using random location sampling.Women in England aged 26-64 years were asked to report whether they felt Jade Goody's story had influenced their decisions about cervical screening over the 18 months between her death and the time of the survey. Results: Data from 890 participants was included in analysis. Over a third of women felt Goody's story had influenced their decisions about cervical screening (40%). Younger women (aged 26-35 years) were more likely to have been influenced by Goody's story than older women (56-64 year olds). There was also evidence of socioeconomic variation with women from lower socioeconomic class groups and those with fewer educational qualifications more likely to say they had been influenced by Goody's story. Conclusions: The 'Jade Goody Effect', as acknowledged by women themselves, was more pronounced among young women and influenced screening decisions more markedly among those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. Narrative communication may be an effective way to encourage attendance at cervical cancer screening and reach groups of the population that are difficult to reach using traditional intervention methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The source of infection for most sporadic cases of Legionnaires' disease remains unknown. This study aims quantify the relationship between cases and wet cooling systems (WCS), a potential source of aerosolised legionella bacteria. Methods The study analysed data on 1163 sporadic, community-acquired cases of Legionnaires' disease in England and Wales with onset between 1996 and 2006, and 11630 postcode controls randomly sampled in proportion to population size and matched on region, age group and sex. The relationship between risk of Legionnaires' disease and distance from a WCS was analysed by conditional logistic regression. Results Cases and controls had a mean age of 56.3 years; 79.3% were male. Cases lived appreciably closer to WCS than their controls (mean distance of cases=2.11 km, controls=2.58 km; mean difference 0.47 km (95% CI 0.28 to 0.65)). The OR for disease within 1 km of a WCS compared with over 6 km (a distance taken to reflect background rates of Legionnaires' disease) was 1.59 (95% CI 1.26 to 2.01) when adjusted for socio-economic deprivation, and 1.33 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.71) when additionally adjusted for population density. The results suggest that residential proximity to a WCS may account for 19.6% of sporadic community-acquired cases. Conclusions WCS may be an important source of sporadic, community-acquired cases of Legionnaires' disease, an observation that has important implications for health protection, especially given the likely increase in such systems as a component of strategies to improve energy efficiency in buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: multidisciplinary rehabilitation is of proven benefit in the management of older inpatients. However, the identification of patients who will do well with rehabilitation currently lacks a strong evidence base.Objectives: the aims of this study were to compare the importance of chorological age, gender, co-morbidities and frailty in the prediction of adverse outcomes for patients admitted to an acute geriatric rehabilitation ward.Design: prospective observational cohort study.Subjects and setting: two hundred and sixty-five patients admitted consecutively to an acute geriatric rehabilitation ward at a tertiary care teaching hospital.Methods: frailty status was measured by an index of accumulated deficits, giving a potential score from 0 (no deficits) to 1.0 (all 40 deficits present). Patients were stratified into three outcomes: good (discharged to original residence within 28 days), intermediate (discharged to original residence but longer hospital stay) and poor (newly institutionalised or died).Results: patients were old (82.6 ± 8.6 years) and frail (mean frailty index (FI) 0.34 ± 0.09). Frailty status correlated significantly with length of stay and was a predictor of poor functional gain. The odds ratio of intermediate and poor outcome relative to a good outcome was 4.95 (95% CI = 3.21, 7.59; P < 0.001) per unit increase in FI. Chronological age, gender and co-morbidity showed no significant association with outcomes.Conclusion: frailty is associated with adverse rehabilitation outcomes. The FI may have clinical utility, augmenting clinical judgement in the management of older inpatients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To determine the impact of media reporting of cervical cancer in a UK celebrity on cervical screening uptake, response time and colposcopy referral and attendance. Setting Population-based national cervical screening programme for women in Wales, UK. Methods A time series regression analysis of the Welsh national cervical screening and colposcopy databases was used to examine the number of smear tests carried out between 2000 and 2010, stratified by age group and deprivation indicators. Logistic regression was used to analyse colposcopy attendance. Results Over 33,000 more cervical screening tests than expected were carried out in the year of media reporting (2008/9), 11,539 (35%) of which were in the month of Jade Goody's death. The largest increase was evident in women aged 35-39 years (475 additional tests per month, 95% CI 331-619). Impacts were similar across deprivation quintiles. Colposcopy referrals increased by 18% during the year of media reporting. Increases were observed for all smear test results in 2008/9, particularly among younger women, and further rises were evident in 2009/10 for smear tests showing borderline changes and mild dyskaryosis. The proportion of women attending colposcopy appointments rose in the year of media reporting (x2 ¼ 45.8, P , 0.001). Conclusions Mass media reporting of cervical cancer in a UK celebrity was associated with a significant, but transient, increase in screening uptake and colposcopy referral and attendance. Mass media reporting can play a role in enhanced detection of abnormalities, but public health messages must be communicated effectively to minimize anxiety whilst maximizing case-finding and uptake among non-responders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The importance of a multifactorial whole school approach to healthy eating is gaining much recognition among policy makers; however, there is little conclusive evidence on the effectiveness of such an approach. The main aim of this study was to examine whether there is any association between the number of actions schools are taking to promote healthy eating and the dietary behaviour of schoolchildren. Methods: A multilevel analysis investigated the association between school (n=64) approaches to promoting dietary choice, collected through teacher (n=289) postal surveys, and the reported dietary choices of students collected from students aged 11 to 16 (n=6693) in Wales through the 2005/2006 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study. Results: Once controlling for all student-level and school-level variables, students in schools with the most actions to promote healthy eating in place had 1.91 (CI=1.13 to 3.24) times the odds of agreeing to eat fruit for lunch, 1.54 (CI=1.07 to 2.22) times the odds of reporting to eating fruit or vegetables on a daily basis and 0.52 (CI=0.29 to 0.95) the odds of agreeing that they eat sweets for lunch, in comparison with students in schools with the lowest number of actions in place. Conclusion: The number of actions that secondary schools have in place to promote healthy eating is significantly associated with healthy food choices made by students. Further research is needed to identify which specific actions are most strongly associated with students' dietary behaviour, and the barriers to more widespread adoption of a whole school approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pestiviruses cause economically important diseases in domestic ruminants worldwide. Border Disease is a congenital viral infection of sheep, caused by a pestivirus, and is first reported in the Border region of Wales and England. The BDV has worldwide distribution in sheep with different prevalences among countries. Vertical transmission is an important route in the epidemiology of this virus. Infection of fetuses may cause birth of persistently infected lambs, that are viremic, antibody negative, and are excreting virus. The disease is characterized by abortion, barren ewes, stillbirth and persistently infected weak lambs showing neurological and dermatological signs. The economic importance of the disease is related to reproductive failure, abortions and significantly low survival rate of affected lambs. In the present study the aim was to describe clinical, hematological and seological aspects of natural Border disease virus (BDV) infection in a sheep flock in Cine, Aydin. Besides we sought to elucidate the relationship between natural (active infection) and persistent BDV disease and the serum concentration of haptoglobin (Hp) and serum amyloid A (SAA) in infected sheep. Materials, Methods & Results: Field observations were carried out in a sheep flock comprising 327 sheep with a history of an outbreak abortion in Cine town in Aydin, Turkey. Twenty-five out of 327 sheep in the flock was monitorized by blood sampling. The animals were selected among aborted ones, at least once, into two weeks preceeding period or with a history of weak lambing. BDV antigen (persistent infection) was detected in 8 out of 25 sheep (32%) while antiviral antibodies (active infection) were detected in 18 animals tested (68%). The disease was mainly characterized by abortions, stillbirth/weak lamb and abnormal brown/black fleece pigmentation, which occurred in an epidemic form. Twentyfive sheep were related to disease condition as detected serologically, and the ratio of the number affected to number at risk being was 17:8. The culling rate was 50% of the affected animals. Most of the affected animals were second lambing sheep (5/25, 20%). Hematological variables did not reveal statistical difference whereas serum concentrations of Hp (P < 0.05) and SAA (P < 0.01) were significantly higher in naturally infected sheep in contrast to persistently infected sheep with BDV. Discussion: Clinical signs and detailed laboratory analysis related to natural Border disease outbreak have never been reported in Turkey, although previous epidemiological studies had shown that Border disease virus infection is relatively common in some parts of Turkey in sheep flocks and persistent Border disease virus infection had been described in apperaently healthy sheep in Turkey. In the present study the disease was mainly characterized by abortions, stillbirth/weak lamb and abnormal brown/black fleece pigmentation, which occurred in an epidemic form. Besides bronchopeumonia, enteritis and conjunctivitis were detected in a limited population. Neurological signs were only observed in 2 animals. Besides persistent infection was detected in 32% of sheep enrolled. An acute phase reaction involving Hp and SAA has been identified in the present study. These results indicate that the monitoring of selected acute phase proteins may increase the diagnostic information available as a result of their analyses in naturally infected sheep and persistently infected sheep with BDV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective. Respiratory tract infections are the most common indication for antibiotic prescribing in primary care. The value of clinical findings in lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) is known to be overrated. This study aimed to determine the independent influence of a point of care test (POCT) for C-reactive protein (CRP) on the prescription of antibiotics in patients with acute cough or symptoms suggestive of LRTI, and how symptoms and chest findings influence the decision to prescribe when the test is and is not used. Design. Prospective observational study of presentation and management of acute cough/LRTI in adults. Setting. Primary care research networks in Norway, Sweden, and Wales. Subjects. Adult patients contacting their GP with symptoms of acute cough/LRTI. Main outcome measures. Predictors of antibiotic prescribing were evaluated in those tested and those not tested with a POCT for CRP using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results. A total of 803 patients were recruited in the three networks. Among the 372 patients tested with a POCT for CRP, the CRP value was the strongest independent predictor of antibiotic prescribing, with an odds ratio (OR) of CRP ≥ 50 mg/L of 98.1. Crackles on auscultation and a patient preference for antibiotics perceived by the GP were the strongest predictors of antibiotic prescribing when the CRP test was not used. Conclusions. The CRP result is a major influence in the decision whether or not to prescribe antibiotics for acute cough. Clinicians attach less weight to discoloured sputum and abnormal lung sounds when a CRP value is available. CRP testing could prevent undue reliance on clinical features that poorly predict benefit from antibiotic treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Suicide is one of the leading causes of premature mortality worldwide. Few studies have assessed long-term trends or sex differences in its incidence over time. We have investigated the age-, sex- and method-specific trends in suicide in England and Wales from 1861 to 2007.Methods Overall age-standardized suicide rates using the European Standard Population and age-, sex- and method-specific rates were calculated for ages &geq;15 years from 1861 to 2007.Results Rates in males were consistently higher than females throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, although the male-to-female sex ratio fluctuated from 4 : 1 in the 1880s to 1.5 : 1 in the 1960s. Suicide rates increased in all age groups in the 1930s, coinciding with the Great Depression. The highest male rates (30.3 per 100 000) were recorded in 1905 and 1934 and have since been declining. Female rates peaked in the 1960s (11.8 per 100 000), declining afterwards. In both sexes the lowest recorded rates were in the 21st century. There was a rapid rise in the use of domestic gas as a method of suicide in both sexes following its introduction at the end of the 19th century. There was no evidence that this rise was accompanied by a decline in the use of other methods. Self-poisoning also increased in popularity from the 1860s (5% of suicides) to the 1990s (22% of suicides).Conclusions The epidemiology of suicide in England and Wales has changed markedly over the past 146 years. The rapid rise in gas suicide deaths in the 1920s highlights how quickly a new method of suicide can be established in a population when it is easily available. The increase in suicides during the Great Depression has implications in relation to the current economic crisis. Changes in the acceptability and lethality of various suicide methods may account for the large variations in sex ratios over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Norovirus, the most commonly identified cause of both sporadic cases and outbreaks of infectious diarrhoea in developed countries, exhibits a complex epidemiology and has a strong wintertime seasonality. Viral populations are dynamic and evolve under positive selection pressure. Methods: Time series-adapted Poisson regression models were fitted to daily counts of laboratory reports of norovirus in England and Wales from 1993 to 2006. Findings: Inverse linear associations with daily temperature over the previous seven weeks (rate ratio (RR) = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.86 for every 1°C increase) and relative humidity over the previous five weeks (RR = 0.980; 95% CI: 0.973 to 0.987 for every 1% increase) were found, with temperature having a greater overall effect. The emergence of new norovirus variants (RR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.22) and low population immunity were also associated with heightened norovirus activity. Temperature and humidity, which may be localised, had highly consistent effects in each region of England and Wales. Conclusions: These results point to a complex interplay between host, viral and climatic factors driving norovirus epidemic patterns. Increases in norovirus are associated with cold, dry temperature, low population immunity and the emergence of novel genogroup 2 type 4 antigenic variants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from 1992 to 2006 were examined by using 24,311 records from unlinked anonymous surveillance of injecting drug users in England and Wales. Bayesian logistic regression was used to estimate annual prevalence, accounting for changing recruitment patterns (age, gender, injecting duration, geographic region, interactions) and the sensitivity and specificity of different oral fluid testing devices. After controlling for these differences, the authors found that the adjusted HCV prevalence decreased from 70% (95% credible interval: 62, 78) in 1992 to 47% (95% credible interval: 43, 51) in 1998 before rising again to 53% (95% credible interval: 48, 58) in 2006. Women injecting drug users had a higher HCV risk than did men (odds ratio = 1.50, 95% credible interval: 1.31, 1.73). Two regions (London and North West) had a markedly higher HCV prevalence than did the rest of England and Wales. Among individuals who had injected for less than 1 year, the adjusted HCV prevalence in 2006 was higher than that in 1992 (28% vs. 19%, respectively). HCV infection can be prevented. The public health challenge in England and Wales is to increase action in order to regain a downward trend in HCV risk and the benefit that has been lost since 1998. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Objectives: To examine the epidemiology of HIV among block and minority ethnic (BME) men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales (E&W). Methods: Ethnicity data from two national HIV/AIDS surveillance systems were reviewed (1997-2002 inclusive), providing information on new HIV diagnoses and those accessing NHS HIV treatment and care services. In addition, undiagnosed HIV prevalence among MSM offending 14 genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics participating in the Unlinked Anonymous Prevalence Monitoring Programme and having routine syphilis serology was examined by world region of birth. Results: Between 1997 and 2002, 1040 BME MSM were newly diagnosed with HIV in E&W, representing 12% of all new diagnoses reported among MSM. of the 1040 BME MSM, 27% were black Caribbean, 12% black African, 10% black other, 8% Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi, and 44% other/mixed. Where reported (n = 395), 58% of BME MSM were probably infected in the United Kingdom. An estimated 7.4% (approximate 95% CI: 4.4% to 12.5%) of BME MSM aged 16-44 in E&W were living with diagnosed HIV in 2002 compared with 3.2% (approximate 95% CI: 2.6% to 3.9%) of white MSM (p<0.001). Of Caribbean born MSM attending GUM clinics between 1997 and 2002, the proportion with undiagnosed HIV infection was 15.8% (95% CI: 11 .7% to 20.8%), while among MSM born in other regions it remained below 6.0%. Conclusions: Between 1997-2002, BME MSM accounted for just over one in 10 new HIV diagnoses among MSM in E&W; more than half probably acquired their infection in the United Kingdom. In 2002, the proportion of BME MSM living with diagnosed HIV in E&W was significantly higher than white MSM. Undiagnosed HIV prevalence in Caribbean born MSM was high. These data confirm the need to remain alert to the sexual health needs and evolving epidemiology of HIV among BME MSM in E&W. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To assess the impact of measles/mumps/rubella (MMR) vaccine on the epidemiology of subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) in England and Wales. Methods: Cases of SSPE resident in England and Wales with onset between 1990 and 2002 were reviewed. Results: A total of 47 cases were identified, 31 male and 16 female. There was an average annual decline of 14% in SSPE onset over the period, consistent with the decline in notified measles over the last 20 years. A history of measles was present in 35 (median age 1 .3 years), the most recent recorded date being 1994; the interval from measles to onset of SSPE ranged from 2.7 to 23.4 years. Four children with a history of receipt of a measles containing vaccine were reported not to have had measles; two of these cases had a brain biopsy, and nucleotide sequence data confirmed wild measles infection. Brain biopsy specimens from a further three cases with a history 0f measles, of whom two had also had a history of vaccination, th showed wild-type strain. Conclusion: The prevention of endemic circulation of measles virus in England and Wales through the high coverage achieved with MMR vaccine, together with the measles/rubella vaccination campaign of 1994,. has resulted in the near elimination of SSPE. However, the recent decline in MMR vaccine coverage, with the associated increase in localised measles outbreaks and cases in young infants, is of concern. It underlines the importance of maintaining high vaccine coverage in order to protect indirectly those most vulnerable to SSPE, namely infants too young to be vaccinated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The study examines time trends and socio‐demographic aspects of drug poisoning deaths in England and Wales. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background A Heat-Health Watch system has been established in England and Wales since 2004 as part of the national heatwave plan following the 2003 Europeanwide heatwave. One important element of this plan has been the development of a timely mortality surveillance system. This article reports the findings and timeliness of a daily mortality model used to 'nowcast' excess mortality (utilising incomplete surveillance data to estimate the number of deaths in near-real time) during a heatwave alert issued by the Met Office for regions in South and East England on 24 June 2011. Methods Daily death registrations were corrected for reporting delays with historical data supplied by the General Registry Office. These corrected counts were compared with expected counts from an age-specific linear regression model to ascertain if any excess had occurred during the heatwave. Results Excess mortality of 367 deaths was detected across England and Wales in $85-year-olds on 26 and 27 June 2011, coinciding with the period of elevated temperature. This excess was localised to the east of England and London. It was detected 3 days after the heatwave. Conclusion A daily mortality model was sensitive and timely enough to rapidly detect a small excess, both, at national and regional levels. This tool will be useful when future events of public health significance occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]