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European forest use for fuel, timber and food dates back to pre-Roman times. Century-scale ecological processes and their legacy effects require accounting for forest management when studying today's forest carbon sink. Forest management reconstructions that are used to drive land surface models are one way to quantify the impact of both historical and today's large scale application of forest management on today's forest-related carbon sink and surface climate. In this study we reconstruct European forest management from 1600 to 2010 making use of diverse approaches, data sources and assumptions. Between 1600 and 1828, a demand-supply approach was used in which wood supply was reconstructed based on estimates of historical annual wood increment and land cover reconstructions. For the same period demand estimates accounted for the fuelwood needed in households, wood used in food processing, charcoal used in metal smelting and salt production, timber for construction and population estimates. Comparing estimated demand and supply resulted in a spatially explicit reconstruction of the share of forests under coppice, high stand management and forest left unmanaged. For the reconstruction between 1829 and 2010 a supply-driven back-casting method was used. The method used age reconstructions from the years 1950 to 2010 as its starting point. Our reconstruction reproduces the most important changes in forest management between 1600 and 2010: (1) an increase of 593 000 km² in conifers at the expense of deciduous forest (decreasing by 538 000 km²), (2) a 612 000 km2 decrease in unmanaged forest, (3) a 152 000 km² decrease in coppice management, (4) a 818 000 km2 increase in high stand management, and (5) the rise and fall of litter raking which at its peak in 1853 removed 50 Tg dry litter per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of wildfires broke out in western Russia starting in late July of 2010. Harmful particulates and gases released into the local Russian atmosphere have been reported, as have possible negative consequences for the global atmosphere. In this study, an extremely hazy area and its transport trajectory on Russian wildfires were analysed using aerosol optical depth (AOD) images retrieved via the synergy method from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. In addition, we used trace gases (NO2 and SO2) and CO2 products measured using Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) data, vertical distribution of AOD data retrieved from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) data, the mass trajectory analyses, synoptic maps from a HYSPLIT model simulation and ground-based data, including AERONET (both AOD and Ångström exponent) data and PM2.5. First, an Optimal Smoothing (OS) scheme was used to develop more precise and reliable AOD data based on multiple competing predictions made using several AOD retrieval models; then, integrated AOD and PM2.5 data were related using a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), and the integrated AOD and visibility data were related using a 6S model. The results show that the PM2.5 concentration is 3-5 times the normal amount based on both satellite data and in situ values with peak daily mean concentrations of approximately 500 µgm-3. Also, the visibility of many parts of Russia, even Moscow, was less than 100 m; in some areas, the visibility was less than 50 m. Additionally, the possible impact on neighbouring countries due to the long-transport effect was also analysed during 31 July and 15 August 2010. A comparison of the satellite aerosol products and ground observations from the neighbouring countries suggests that wildfires in western Russian have had little impact on most European and Asian countries, the exceptions being Finland, Estonia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. However, a possible impact on the Arctic region was also identified; such an effect would have a serious influence on the polar atmospheric environment and on animals such as polar bears. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper exploits enlargement of the European Union as a natural experiment to provide evidence for cluttering of the trade mark register in Europe. Enlargement increased regulatory uncertainty for pharmaceutical firms because the number of medical regulators that had to approve invented names for pharmaceutical products increased sharply at the time. The effects of this regulatory shock on pharmaceutical firms’ trade mark application strategies are studied using Difference-in-Differences and bias adjusted matching estimators. It is shown that enlargement had a significant and quantitatively important effect on pharmaceutical firms’ incentives to clutter trade mark registers with trade marks they are unlikely to use. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Questions concerning the use of evidence in policy making increasingly attract the interest of both policymakers and researchers. It is broadly recognized that the development of integrated policy frameworks can be facilitated by the use of quantitative analytical methods, such as system modeling, computer simulation, trend analysis, and scenario analysis. Although policy projections based on these methods cannot provide direct solutions to policy problems, they can help to minimize the undesirable effects of a policy choice. This paper presents the concept design of a policy projection tool that estimates the macro-level effects of patient charges. In particular, the paper explores the usefulness of system dynamics modeling for the development of the projection tool. The overall objective of the policy projection tool is to generate evidence relevant for the analysis of patient payment policies. Based on the concept projection tool, a simplified consumption-revenue module is developed for the estimation of the annual health care consumption and the revenue from patient payments during one year. The module is applied to data from six Central and Eastern European countries to test its accuracy. The results from the module testing provide directions for further modeling steps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International migration is now a significant driver of population change across Europe but the methods that are available to estimate its true effect on subnational areas remain inconsistent, constrained by inadequate systems of measurement and data capture. In the absence of a population register for England, official statistics on immigration and emigration are derived from a combination of survey and census sources. The paper demonstrates how administrative data systems such as those which capture registrations of recent migrants with a local doctor, national insurance number registrations by workers from abroad and the registration of foreign students for higher education can provide data to understand patterns and trends in international migration better. The paper proposes a model for the estimation of immigration at a local level, integrating existing national estimates from the UK Office for National Statistics with data from these administrative sources. The model attempts to circumvent conceptual differences between data sets through the use of proportional distributions rather than absolute migrant counts in the estimation process. The model methodology and the results that it produces provide alternative estimates of immigration for consideration by the Office for National Statistics as it develops its own programme of improvement to subnational migration statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper highlights the similarities and differences in how emission inventories and datasets were developed and processed across North America and Europe for the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) project and then characterizes the emissions for the two domains. We focus specifically on the creation of “model-ready” gridded emission datasets for 2006 across the two continental study domains. The practice of creating and processing the two inventories is discussed with a focus on emission factors, spatial allocation, temporal variability, speciation of PM and VOCs, and the mechanics of distributing the data and supporting emission algorithms to the modeling community. The spatial and temporal distribution on common scales is compared for the pollutants of primary concern: NOx, VOCs, SO2, PM2.5, CO, and NH3. Because of differences of population distribution, emissions across North America tend to be more heterogeneous in spatial coverage than in Europe. The temporal patterns in the estimated emissions are largely the result of assumptions used to characterize human activity, with the exception of “natural” emissions, which are modulated by meteorological variability, and emissions from large electric generating units in the U.S., which have the benefit of continuous emission monitors that provide hourly resolved profiles. Emission estimates in both study domains are challenged by several important but poorly characterized emission source sectors, notably road dust, agricultural operations, biomass burning, and road transport. Finally, this paper provides insight on the strengths and weaknesses of emission inventory preparation practices on both continents. One important outcome of this comparison of 2006 emissions between Europe and North America is the greater understanding provided into how the emission estimates developed for the AQMEII project impact regional air quality model performance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Descriptive studies of international migration typically rely on measures of migrant stocks and migration rates to assess migration patterns. In this paper we propose a third alternative. Using harmonized data on age-specific migration flows between all countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) each year from 2002 to 2007, we estimate the expected duration of residence of international migration, defined as the average number of years lived by migrants in the receiving country given period migration and mortality schedules. Our results provide a window into the temporal dynamics of international migration in Europe, increasingly relevant given recent expansions of the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemiological studies on mental health and mental comorbidity are usually based on prevalences and correlations between disorders, or some other form of bivariate clustering of disorders. In this paper, we propose a Factor Mixture Model (FMM) methodology based on conceptual models aiming to measure and summarize distinctive disorder information in the internalizing and externalizing dimensions. This methodology includes explicit modelling of subpopulations with and without 12 month disorders ('ill' and 'healthy') by means of latent classes, as well as assessment of model invariance and estimation of dimensional scores. We applied this methodology with an internalizing/externalizing two-factor model, to a representative sample gathered in the European Study of the Epidemiology of Mental Disorders (ESEMeD) study - which includes 8796 individuals from six countries, and used the CIDI 3.0 instrument for disorder assessment. Results revealed that southern European countries have significantly higher mental health levels concerning internalizing/externalizing disorders than central countries; males suffered more externalizing disorders than women did, and conversely, internalizing disorders were more frequent in women. Differences in mental-health level between socio-demographic groups were due to different proportions of healthy and ill individuals and, noticeably, to the ameliorating influence of marital status on severity. An advantage of latent model-based scores is that the inclusion of additional mental-health dimensional information - other than diagnostic data - allows for greater precision within a target range of scores. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tertiary-relict plants are survivors from the pre-Quaternary periods. Today, most European Tertiary relicts are confined to small, isolated stands distributed in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions. In the past, however, the fossil record indicates that these species were probably distributed over large parts of the European continent and may have been important constituents of the vegetation. Little is known about their pollen representation, which limits our ability to reconstruct this past vegetation with any accuracy. This paper draws on the results of pollen trapping experiments in Bulgaria and Georgia, where relict stands of Aesculus hippocastanum, Cercis siliquastrum, Fagus orientalis, Juglans regia and Pterocarya fraxinifolia are still in existence. We compared average pollen accumulation rates (PAR) to vegetation data from around the trapping locations to derive estimates of absolute pollen productivity using various pollen dispersal functions. Composite dispersal functions that model pollen components carried above the vegetation canopy and falling as rain provided better relationships between PAR and plant abundance than functions that consider only a single component or the ‘trunk-space’ component carried under the canopy. A composite dispersal function with a simple model for regional pollen and the best overall correlation statistics gave the following estimates of absolute pollen productivity (grains cm−2 yr−1 with 1 SE intervals): Carpinus betulus 19,000–28,700; Fagus orientalis 15,600–20,400; Juglans regia 27,200–36,200; Pterocarya fraxinifolia 182,000–192,600; Quercus spp. 21,700–24,800; Tilia begoniifolia 51,600–68,300; and T. tomentosa 14,700–18,200. These estimates were applied to fossil data from the Black Sea coast to reconstruct palaeovegetation using absolute and relative methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years European airspace has become increasingly congested and airlines can now observe that en-route capacity constraints are the fastest growing source of flight delays. In 2010 this source of delay accounted for 19% of all flight delays in Europe and has been increasing with an average yearly rate of 17% from 2005 to 2010. This paper suggests and evaluates an approach to how disruption management can be combined with flight planning in order to create more proactive handling of the kind of disruptions, which are caused by congested airspace. The approach is evaluated using data from a medium size European carrier and estimates a lower bound saving of several million USD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we explore the drivers of different types of eco-innovation in European SMEs. Drawing upon a database of 27 European countries, empirical evidence is found for the different roles of supply-side, demand-side and regulatory factors in encouraging the adoption of different types of eco-innovation. Our empirical strategy consists of the estimation of a trivariate probit model. Our results show that those entrepreneurs who give importance to collaboration with research institutes, agencies and universities, and to the increase of market demand for green products are more active in all types of eco-innovations. Supply-side factors seem to be a more important driver for environmental processes and organizational innovations than for environmental product innovations. The results also show that market share only has a significant positive influence on eco-product and eco-organizational innovations, while cost-savings are solely significant for eco-process innovations. Finally, prioritizing existing regulations shapes eco-product and eco-organizational innovations while expected regulations and access to subsidies and fiscal incentives do not have any significant effect on the decision to eco-innovate in Europe at the firm-level. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes a decision-making model for estimating the value of airport slots for airlines. Assuming that an airline wants to improve its flight schedule by adding new slots to its portfolio the model would enable it to investigate if such a purchase of slots in the secondary market would be profitable. The model outputs are the new flight schedule, the years necessary to recoup the initial outlay in buying the new slots, and the number of potential connections that the airline could realize if the new slots are introduced. The solutions are feasible from the aspect of aircraft availability for new flights, the realized profit for an airline, and finally, an acceptable pay-off period for the purchased slots. The model is tested on real data from a mid-sized European airline. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is a 3D long-range atmospheric chemistry-transport model with a horizontal domain covering the Northern Hemisphere. For the AQMEII (Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative) inter-comparison exercise, the model was set up with two two-way nested domains simultaneously – one covering Europe and one covering North America. In this paper, the model configuration used in AQMEII will be described, including a discussion of model results and evaluation for the year 2006 against available measurements in Europe for different chemical species. The evaluation of DEHM for Europe shows that the model gives satisfying results for species such as ozone, nitrogen-dioxide, sulphur-dioxide and secondary inorganic aerosols. The evaluation also points to certain processes where DEHM can be improved, such as biogenic emissions of isoprene, mass closure for particulate matter, wet deposition, and description of vertical mixing during winter. Furthermore, special attention is given to the intercontinental transport of air pollution between North America (NA) and Europe (EU). We estimate the contributions to the total air pollution levels at continental scale from the anthropogenic emissions in the two areas, with a focus on ozone and particulate matter using a tagging method, taking into account the non-linear effects of atmospheric chemistry. We conclude that for this specific year, the intercontinental transport between NA and EU is small for the annual or seasonal mean values – for ozone the contributions are typically around 3% (∼1 ppb) from NA to EU and around 1% (∼0.3 ppb) from EU to NA. For particles the contributions from NA to EU is around 0.9% (∼0.05 μg m−3) and from EU to NA around 1.4% (∼0.05 μg m−3). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper we specify a multi-factor long-memory process that enables us to estimate the fractional differencing parameters at each frequency separately, and adopt this framework to model quarterly prices in three European countries (France, Italy and the UK). The empirical results suggest that inflation in France and Italy is nonstationary. However, while for the former country this applies both to the zero and the seasonal frequencies, in the case of Italy the nonstationarity comes exclusively from the long-run or zero frequency. In the UK, inflation seems to be stationary with a component of long memory at both the zero and the semi-annual frequencies, especially at the former. In all cases, we find evidence of mean reversion, implying that the effects of exogenous shocks on inflation are transitory and activist policies are not required in response to them. This process is slower in the case of France and Italy compared with the UK.JEL Classification: C22, O40 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shelf stacking represents the daily process of manually refilling the shelves with products from new deliveries. For most retailers, handling operations are labour-intensive and often very costly. This paper presents an empirical study of the shelf-stacking process in grocery retail stores. We examine the complete process at the level of individual sub-activities and study the main factors that affect the execution time of this common operation. Based on the insights from different sub-activities, a prediction model is developed that allows estimating the total stacking time per order line, solely on the basis of the number of case packs and consumer units. The model is tested and validated using real-life data from two European grocery retailers and serves as a useful tool for evaluating the workload required for the usual shelf-stacking operations. Furthermore, we illustrate the benefits of the model by analytically quantifying the potential time savings in the stacking process, and present a lot-sizing analysis to demonstrate the opportunities for extending inventory control rules with a handling component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the framework of theWorld Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the longrange transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Phylogenetic diversity patterns are increasingly being used to better understand the role of ecological and evolutionary processes in community assembly. Here, we quantify how these patterns are influenced by scale choices in terms of spatial and environmental extent and organismic scales. Location European Alps. Methods We applied 42 sampling strategies differing in their combination of focal scales. For each resulting sub-dataset, we estimated the phylogenetic diversity of the species pools, phylogenetic α-diversities of local communities, and statistics commonly used together with null models in order to infer non-random diversity patterns (i.e. phylogenetic clustering versus over-dispersion). Finally, we studied the effects of scale choices on these measures using regression analyses. Results Scale choices were decisive for revealing signals in diversity patterns. Notably, changes in focal scales sometimes reversed a pattern of over-dispersion into clustering. Organismic scale had a stronger effect than spatial and environmental extent. However, we did not find general rules for the direction of change from over-dispersion to clustering with changing scales. Importantly, these scale issues had only a weak influence when focusing on regional diversity patterns that change along abiotic gradients. Main conclusions Our results call for caution when combining phylogenetic data with distributional data to study how and why communities differ from random expectations of phylogenetic relatedness. These analyses seem to be robust when the focus is on relating community diversity patterns to variation in habitat conditions, such as abiotic gradients. However, if the focus is on identifying relevant assembly rules for local communities, the uncertainty arising from a certain scale choice can be immense. In the latter case, it becomes necessary to test whether emerging patterns are robust to alternative scale choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) provides an aerosol re-analysis starting from year 2003 for the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project. The re-analysis assimilates total aerosol optical depth retrieved by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to correct for model departures from observed aerosols. The reanalysis therefore combines satellite retrievals with the full spatial coverage of a numerical model. Re-analysed products are used here to estimate the shortwave direct and first indirect radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols over the period 2003-2010, using methods previously applied to satellite retrievals of aerosols and clouds. The best estimate of globally-averaged, all-sky direct radiative forcing is -0.7 ± 0.3 Wm-2. The standard deviation is obtained by a Monte-Carlo analysis of uncertainties, which accounts for uncertainties in the aerosol anthropogenic fraction, aerosol absorption, and cloudy-sky effects. Further accounting for differences between the present-day natural and pre-industrial aerosols provides a direct radiative forcing estimate of -0.4 ± 0.3 Wm-2. The best estimate of globally-averaged, all-sky first indirect radiative forcing is -0.6 ± 0.4 Wm-2. Its standard deviation accounts for uncertainties in the aerosol anthropogenic fraction, and in cloud albedo and cloud droplet number concentration susceptibilities to aerosol changes. The distribution of first indirect radiative forcing is asymmetric and is bounded by -0.1 and -2.0 Wm-2. In order to decrease uncertainty ranges, better observational constraints on aerosol absorption and sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentrations to aerosol changes are required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge about isoprene emissions and concentration distribution is important for chemistry transport models (CTMs), because isoprene acts as a precursor for tropospheric ozone and subsequently affects the atmospheric concentrations of many other atmospheric compounds. Isoprene has a short lifetime, and hence it is very difficult to evaluate its emission estimates against measurements. For this reason, we coupled two isoprene emission models with the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM), and evaluated the simulated background ozone concentrations based on different models for isoprene emissions. In this research, results of using the two global biogenic emission models; GEIA (Global Emissions Inventory Activity) and MEGAN (the global Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) are compared and evaluated. The total annual emissions of isoprene for the year 2006 estimated by using MEGAN is 592 Tg yr-1 for an extended area of the Northern Hemisphere, which is 21% higher than that estimated by using GEIA. The overall feature of the emissions from the two models is quite similar, but differences are found mainly in Africa's savannah and in the southern part of North America. Differences in spatial distribution of emission factors are found to be a key source of these discrepancies. In spite of the short life-time of isoprene, a direct evaluation of isoprene concentrations using the two biogenic emission models in DEHM has been made against available measurements in Europe. Results show an agreement between two models simulations and the measurements in general and that the CTM is able to simulate isoprene concentrations. Additionally, investigation of ozone concentrations resulting from the two biogenic emission models show that isoprene simulated by MEGAN strongly affects the ozone production in the African savannah; the effect is up to 10% more than that obtained using GEIA. In contrast, the impact of using GEIA is higher in the Amazon region with more than 8% higher ozone concentrations compared to that of using MEGAN. Comparing the ozone concentrations obtained by DEHM using the two different isoprene models with measurements from Europe and North America, show an agreement on the hourly, mean daily and daily maximum values. However, the average of ozone daily maximum value simulated by using MEGAN is slightly closer to the measured value for the average of all measuring sites in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental conditions and biotic interactions are generally thought to influence local species richness. However, immigration and the evolutionary and historical factors that shape regional species pools should also contribute to determining local species richness because local communities arise by assembly from regional species pools. Using the European tree flora as our study system, we implemented a novel approach to assess the relative importance of local and regional mechanisms that control local species richness. We first identified species pools that tolerate particular local environments and quantified the proportion of the pool that is present locally, i.e. the realized/potential (R/P) richness ratio. Because no consensus exists on how to estimate potential richness, we estimated it using three different approaches. Using these three estimates separately and in a combined ensemble estimate, we then analyzed the effects of potential drivers on R/P richness ratios. We predicted that the R/P richness ratio would 1) increase with decreasing distance from glacial refugia (accessibility), 2) and be generally low in geographically fragmented southern Europe because of dispersal limitation; 3) increase with actual evapotranspiration because greater availability of water and energy promotes local population persistence; and 4) increase with topographic heterogeneity because it promotes local species coexistence and facilitates long-term species survival. There was considerable variation among the three R/P richness ratio estimates, but we found consistent support for a negative effect of regional geographic fragmentation and a positive topographic effect. We also identified fairly broad support for the predicted effect of accessibility. We conclude that local tree assemblages in Europe often fail to realize a large proportion of the potential richness held in the regional species pool, partially reflecting their geographical, historical, and environmental circumstances. The dispersal-related effects of geographic fragmentation and accessibility exemplify regional controls that combine with local ecological sorting to determine local species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International migration is now the dominant factor determining the size, rate of change, and composition of most European countries. Migration is driving quite rapid population growth in some northwestern countries, slowing or arresting decline in the South, accelerating decline in the East. Migration is difficult to analyse: the process is complex, the data poor, and the theory unsatisfactory. Its many factors include unpredictable policy change. But some conclusions can be reached. While immigration usually reduces the average age of the recipient populations, it cannot 'solve' population ageing except through very high and exponentially increasing inflows. Already it is changing the face of European countries. According to available projections, the proportion of the population of foreign origin in some European countries will increase from 5-15 per cent of the total today, to 15-30 per cent by mid-century. Such projections depend primarily on the assumptions about the level of international migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We examine issues of uncertainty regarding the spatial and temporal representativeness of phenological observations using a newly compiled Europe-wide data base of phenological observations for Betula species. Location Europe. Methods A new data base was compiled from national phenological observations covering 15 European countries, with the longest observational periods exceeding several decades for some sites. From this, the spatial and temporal representativeness of phenological observations were evaluated via statistical analysis. Results The results showed that there was a significant and irreducible uncertainty related to the use of data of a single station, which varied from 3 to 8 days depending on the station location. In more continental and northern climatic zones the uncertainty was lower, probably due to faster spring-time weather developments. In mild climatic conditions, the uncertainty of dates of the phenological phases registered by a single station exceeded 1 week. The considerable number of data allowed us to preliminarily estimate the features of some stations, marking them as ‘late’, ‘early’, ‘representative’ or ‘random’, depending on the dates reported by these sites and the corresponding regional means. Main conclusions The uncertainties discovered in single-site phenological observations are significant for virtually any potential application. Possible approaches for handling the uncertainty problem are station pre-averaging and spatial regularization of the data set, pre-selection (down-sampling) or changing the description of the phenomena from deterministic to probabilistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary. Long-transported air pollution in Europe is monitored by a combination of a highly complex mathematical model and a limited number of measurement stations. The model predicts deposition on a 150 km × 150 km square grid covering the whole of the continent. These predictions can be regarded as spatial averages, with some spatially correlated model error. The measurement stations give a limited number of point estimates, regarded as error free. We combine these two sources of data by assuming that both are observations of an underlying true process. This true deposition is made up of a smooth deterministic trend, due to gradual changes in emissions over space and time, and two stochastic components. One is non- stationary and correlated over long distances; the other describes variation within a grid square. Our approach is through hierarchical modelling with predictions and measurements being independent conditioned on the underlying non-stationary true deposition. We assume Gaussian processes and calculate maximum likelihood estimates through numerical optimization. We find that the variation within a grid square is by far the largest component of the variation in the true deposition. We assume that the mathematical model produces estimates of the mean over an area that is approximately equal to a grid square, and we find that it has an error that is similar to the long-range stochastic component of the true deposition, in addition to a large bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on the application of Hausman and Taylor estimation methodology to a gravity equation of bilateral trade flows among 15 European countries from 1960-2001. It states that the impact of country-specific variables like distance, common language and common border can be recovered using the Hausman and Taylor estimation methodology. It notes that common language is a proxy for cultural, historical and linguistic proximity which is correlated with country specific effects.

The article presents a study on on the advantages and disadvantages of the methods used in estimating portion sizes in dietary assessment in Europe. The authors stated that weighed diaries approach gives accurate portion sizes, however the approach is time consuming and relies on the memory of the respondents. Meanwhile, the food portion photographs can help respondents to visualize the amount of food they have eaten, however it tends to guide choices regarding portion size.