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This paper demonstrates how historical research is a valuable tool for identifying past geological, geomorphological and climatic hazards and therefore critical for mitigating and reducing future risk. The authors describe the potential of a scientific field that straddles that of the geologist, geographer, historian and archivist. Historical records include a range of materials and sources of information, which can be very diverse; from written documents to cartographies, and from drawings to marble tombstones. They are all useful and convey important data, on the date of the event, the size of the phenomena, sometimes on ground effects, damage or magnitude. The authors discuss how to conduct historical research by providing a list of locations and how important historical documents can be found. Works that mention geological phenomena are listed, starting with the first occasional descriptions by individuals in letters, up to very specific publications in individual fields of interest. With this introduction, the editors of the Special Issue wish to draw attention to the importance of historical documentation, which is too often ignored or considered of low priority by the scientific community, but can contain key information on events, their impacts and social and cultural adaptations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Standards and Codes of Practice for designing new constructions and for assessing and strengthening existing ones are usually based on uniform hazard maps, where different Limit States (LSs) are associated with different hazard-exceedance probabilities. This approach yields non-homogeneous LS-exceedance probabilities across a territory, thus failing to achieve the goal of uniform risk throughout a territory. Such lack of uniformity stems from estimating the probability of failure using capacity and demand models. If the capacity of new constructions—or the capacity increase of strengthened existing constructions—are designed based on a prescribed hazard-exceedance probability, then the seismic risk depends on both the structure (depending on the design philosophy and corresponding design objectives), through the capacity model, and the location, through the hazard model. The aim of this study is threefold. First, it provides a seismic probability assessment formulation and a risk-targeted intensity measure based on a linear model in log–log coordinates of the hazard, under the assumption of log-normal capacity and demand. The proposed framework introduces a factor that multiplies the code hazard-based demand to account either for intentional (from design) over-capacity or for undesired (e.g., in existing constructions) under-capacity. Second, this paper shows an application to peak ground accelerations in Europe considering parameters taken from Standards and Codes of Practice. The developed framework is used to determine the risk-target levels of peak ground acceleration used for design in Europe, for both new and existing constructions. Third, the obtained target risk levels are used to determine a risk-based intensity modification factor and a risk-based mean return period modification factor, which can be readily implemented in current Standards to achieve risk-targeted design actions, with equal LS-exceedance probability across the territory. The framework is independent of the chosen hazard-based intensity measure, be it the commonly used peak ground acceleration or any other measure. The results highlight that in large areas of Europe the design peak ground acceleration should be increased to achieve the proposed seismic risk target and that this is particularly significant for existing constructions, given their larger uncertainties and typical low capacity with respect to the code hazard-based demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sinkholes are a severe problem in urban areas located in karstic regions, especially where evaporitic rocks such as gypsum exist. Identification and proposal of mitigation measures are needed to reduce this geo-hazard effect on buildings and social urban living. This paper presents a case study of the town of Alcalá de Ebro (Spain), which is located in the highest sinkhole risk region of Europe. The identification and mitigation of a series of sinkholes that appeared are analyzed. The former involves a geological investigation, including boreholes, field tests and geophysics. The latter is addressed by the use of geogrids, mortar injections and polyurethane injections. A complementary finite element analysis is carried out to set the ground behavior associated with the sinking process and assess its future evolution. The Ebro River appears to be the main cause of sinkholes, and results show that ground treatments applied were successful in their purpose, as there are no apparent deformations indicating that the subsidence or sinking process is still active in the area. The use of different techniques depending on the size of the sinkhole, the objectives pursued and the element affected is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the focus of research about natural hazards has turned from single-hazard studies to multi-hazard ones. While single hazards (like earthquakes, floods, droughts, etc.) have been extensively studied in the past and many quantitative statements about intensities and severities are available, quantitative studies about multi-hazards and dependencies are still rare. This paper introduces new statistical models for the dependencies of cat-event processes of different hazard types based on Poisson-type event processes. Moreover, the models are applied to data for several natural hazard events from the Danube area in Europe. The analysis should help to bridge the gap between the more conceptual contributions to this discussion by providing empirical evidence on interactions on a large-scale region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazards has increased, and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade, causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing in frequency as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (elements potentially at risk in flood-prone area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the undeniable effect of climate change is projected to strongly modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events at the local, regional and global scale. Within this context, the need for developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow one to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threatens different relevant receptors becomes urgent. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). This paper is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to appraise the risk posed by floods from a physical-environmental perspective. The methodology, developed within the recently completed FP7- KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention -- KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. plain rivers, mountain torrents, urban and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from catchment to the urban scale). The FD compliant KR-RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamic models with site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope, land cover, population density, economic activities etc.) to develop tailored risk indexes and GIS-based maps for each of the selected receptors (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritage) in the considered region. It further compares the baseline scenario with alternative scenarios, where different structural and/or non-structural mitigation measures are planned and eventually implemented. As demonstrated in the companion paper (Part 2, Ronco et al., 2014), risk maps, along with related statistics, allow one to identify and classify, on a relative scale, areas at risk which are more likely to be affected by floods and support the development of strategic adaptation and prevention measures to minimizing flood impacts. In addition, the outcomes of the RRA can be eventually used for a further socio-economic assessment, considering the tangible and intangible costs as well as the human dimension of vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an assessment of normalised flood losses in Europe for the period 1970-2006. Normalisation provides an estimate of the losses that would occur if the floods from the past take place under current societal conditions. Economic losses from floods are the result of both societal and climatological factors. Failing to adjust for time-variant socio-economic factors produces loss amounts that are not directly comparable over time, but rather show an ever-growing trend for purely socio-economic reasons. This study has used available information on flood losses from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and the Natural Hazards Assessment Network (NATHAN). Following the conceptual approach of previous studies, we normalised flood losses by considering the effects of changes in population, wealth, and inflation at the country level. Furthermore, we removed inter-country price differences by adjusting the losses for purchasing power parities (PPP). We assessed normalised flood losses in 31 European countries. These include the member states of the European Union, Norway, Switzerland, Croatia, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Results show no detectable sign of human-induced climate change in normalised flood losses in Europe. The observed increase in the original flood losses is mostly driven by societal factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Navas, F.; Malvárez, G.; Penning-Rowsell, E., and Parker, D.J., 2018. Flood Hazard Prevention Appraisal in Europe: Training Key Stakeholders on the Benefits and Costs of Efficient Protection and Response. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 1546–1550. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Coastal floods in the European Union member states produce massive costs in environmental loss but also as flood damage property, infrastructure and economic activity. These costs will increase in the future due to Climate Change. The appraisal of benefits and costs are of key importance in the current economic situation in which Europe's resources need to be distributed with great prudence. In this context the implementation of European Directives, such as the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) require that decision makers need to base their assessments of flood prevention measures on Cost-Benefit analysis studies. But despite this requirement EU member states are basing their implementation in a variety of approaches. In this article the results of the implementation of a new e-learning and face to face training approach based on flood prevention appraisal methodologies (e.g. cost-benefit, multicriteria analyses) is presented. The training programme used significant resources from web-based knowledge platform developed during relevant EU projects including extensive databases with legislative framework, a toolkit with resources on cost benefit analysis calculators and links with spatial data which were deemed essential for flood hazard prevention appraisal. The lessons learnt from the implementation of the training programme are of significance to assess the success or failure of the implementation of key legislative frameworks such as the EU Floods Directive in the future. A prior and post consultation process carried out with the participants showed that a) trainees were successful in developing the step by step procedure using a dedicated calculator; b) trainees also had a more contextualized general picture at EU level of the main issues regarding flood hazard prevention; and c) the trainees found the e-learning and face to face material and the resources very easy to follow and easy to understand, and explicitly recognised the pedagogic value of online availability of course materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collisions between aircraft and wildlife (i.e., wildlife strikes) pose a serious threat toward the safety of aircraft, its crew, and passengers. The effects of COVID-19 related travel restrictions on wildlife strikes are unknown. With this study, we aim to address this information gap by assessing the changes of wildlife hazard management performance across European airports during the lockdown period (e.g., period of reduced operations and borders closure in spring 2020). We also sought to raise awareness of the importance of wildlife strike prevention in times of reduced operations. The objective of our study was to compare wildlife strike data before and during the lockdown based on the following criteria: (1) the number of wildlife strikes per 10,000 flights, (2) the groups of wildlife species involved, and (3) the lighting conditions. To conduct our research, we analyzed a dataset of 12,528 wildlife strikes, gathered from 157 civil airports across Europe for the period from March 2017 to February 2021. Our analysis revealed a wide variation in the wildlife strike rates during the lockdown (period of time from March 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021). Our study uncovered an increasing trend of the relative strike rates for almost all wildlife species categories and a slight trend toward more strikes occurring during daytime compared to nighttime. Our findings highlighted the need for continuous wildlife hazard management despite fluctuation in flights and provide potential for airports, airline operators, and other aviation stakeholders to reduce wildlife strike risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inundation is one of the major natural hazards in Europe. The evaluation of the flood hazard and risk is not straightforward mainly due to the monitoring system that is poor or not uniformly distributed in the territory. The ESA Earth Observation Program, including a series of satellites, Sentinels, for the operative observation of the natural phenomenon, e.g. the inundations, can potentially reduce the gap. Sentinel-1 (SAR: synthetic aperture radar) and Sentinel-2 (optical) have been demonstrated to be suitable for mapping flooded areas, but despite the medium–high spatial and temporal resolution of the sensors, the mapping of inundated territories is often partial or missing. The objective of this study is to evaluate through a synthetic study the effectiveness of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 in the systematic assessment of floods in Europe, where the flood events have durations ranging from some hours to a few days. To reach the target, we analysed 10 years of river discharge data over almost 2000 sites in Europe, and we extracted flood events over some established thresholds as proxies of riverine inundations. Based on the revisit time of the satellite constellations and cloud coverage, we derived the percentage of potential inundation events that Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 could be able to observe. Results show that assuming the configuration of a constellation of two satellites for each mission and considering the ascending and descending orbit, on average 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the cloud coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Recent damages and losses associated with coastal floods have generated many analyses dealing with overexposure to flood risk, its consequences, associated technological choices and governance principles, and what seems to be a poor understanding of the causes and consequences of floods and working of coastal defences at the local level. While many analyses demonstrate that risks are both physically and socially constructed, in this paper we go further by analysing risk mitigation options (engineering works) as being dual (physically and socially constructed) as well. When envisioning mitigation options through stakeholders' perception, one can observe a mix of intertwined statements associated with the relevance the specific risk that is dealt with, dealing with the sometimes incomplete knowledge associated with the mitigation option and its performance at reducing risk, and, dealing with the value conflicts that may be present when envisioning a particular flood risk mitigation strategy. Our research question is “what are the drivers of stakeholder perceptions when envisioning engineering-based mitigation options.” Through qualitative empirical fieldwork conducted in three European coastal settings (Cesenatico, Santander and the Gironde Estuary) we demonstrate here that engineered mitigation solutions are socially construed by referring to individual and collective heuristics associated with these options. These heuristics may lead to poor social acceptability of envisioned mitigation options, poor acceptability not directly linked to the performance in terms of risk reduction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the vulnerability to flooding and erosion of four open beach study sites in Europe. A framework for the quantitative estimation of present and future coastal flood and erosion risks is established using methods, data and tools from across a range of disciplines, including topographic and bathymetric data, climate data from observation, hindcast and model projections, statistical modelling of current and future climates and integrated risk analysis tools. Uncertainties in the estimation of future coastal system dynamics are considered, as are the consequences for the inland systems. Different implementations of the framework are applied to the study sites which have different wave, tidal and surge climate conditions. These sites are: Santander, Spain—the Atlantic Ocean; Bellocchio, Italy—the Adriatic Sea; Varna, Bulgaria—the Black Sea; and the Teign Estuary, UK—the northern Atlantic Ocean. The complexity of each system is first simplified by sub-division into coastal “impact units” defined by homogeneity in the local key forcing parameters: wave, wind, tide, river discharge, run-off, etc. This reduces the simulation to that of a number of simpler linear problems which are treated by applying the first two components of the Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (S–P–R–C) approach. The case studies reveal the flexibility of this approach, which is found useful for the rapid assessment of the risks of flooding and erosion for a range of scenarios and the likely effectiveness of flood defences. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Preparedness towards natural hazards is a key factor in the reduction of their impact on the society. Recent international initiatives are fostering the development of a culture of risk prevention and the promotion of early warning systems. Numerical weather predictions have become the basis of several flood-related warning systems, enabling the detection of hazardous events with sufficient lead-time to prepare effective emergency and response plans. The objective of this paper is to review current European operational warning systems for water-related hazards induced by severe weather conditions. In details, it includes systems for detecting surface water flooding, flash floods, debris flows, mud flows, rainfall-induced landslides, river floods and coastal floods. Technical features and capabilities of different systems are described, together with some noteworthy examples. The main strengths of each system type are highlighted and suggestions are provided for developing and further improving their overall skills in hazard detection and the mutual coordination. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In the last two decades we witnessed a progressive shift in the approach towards the reduction of the impact of natural hazards. From a general reactive approach, focusing on strengthening disaster response mechanisms, we have moved to proactive approaches. There has been recognition that each element of society, from public institutions to private sector, from community-based organizations to every single individual, can make a difference by acting before disasters strike to reduce the associated risks of human and economic losses. This proactive approach can be summarized in three words: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Today, DRR is an approach used in several sectors and research areas. In the Development sphere, DRR is considered a key feature for sustainability of economic and development gains – especially for developing countries. Significantly, the is titled “Risk and poverty in a changing climate” highlighting the importance of DRR in reducing poverty while being a means to address the challenges posed by adaptation to climate change. This paper, which serves as an introduction to the special issue of Environment Science & Policy on climate change impact on water-related disasters, intends to provide readers with an overview of the main policy frameworks addressing DRR internationally and in Europe. Further, it aims to offer some “food for thought” on the underlying opportunities we have to enhance the resilience of our communities towards the risks posed by weather-related hazards. It stresses the importance of governance of risks, which starts from an effective dialogue between the scientific community and the policy makers: those who have the responsibility to decide on the most cost-effective interventions to address climate change adaptation and risk reduction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

PROTHEGO (PROTection of European Cultural HEritage from GeO-hazards) uses novel space technology to monitor surface deformation with mm precision to analyze the impact of geohazards in cultural heritage sites in Europe. The project includes the 395 monuments of UNESCO in Europe to monitor geo-hazards, with case studies conducted in 4 UNESCO sites in England, Spain, Italy and Cyprus. The PROTHEGO project uses long-term low-impact monitoring systems, such as UAVs and geodetic techniques, as well as InSAR data to monitor and assess the risk from natural hazards on the archaeological site to evaluate potential geo-hazards. This paper will present an overview of best practices for the innovative diagnosis, monitoring, mitigation and preservation of Cultural Heritage monuments sites affected by geo-hazards that are potentially unstable due to landslides, sinkholes, settlement, subsidence, active tectonics as well as structural deformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]