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Background: Non-fatal self-harm is one of the most frequent reasons for emergency hospital admission and the strongest risk factor for subsequent suicide. Repeat self-harm and suicide are key clinical outcomes of the hospital management of self-harm. We have undertaken a comprehensive review of the international literature on the incidence of fatal and non-fatal repeat self-harm and investigated factors influencing variation in these estimates as well as changes in the incidence of repeat self-harm and suicide over the last 30 years. Methods and Findings: Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Google Scholar, article reference lists and personal paper collections of the authors were searched for studies describing rates of fatal and non-fatal self-harm amongst people who presented to health care services for deliberate self-harm. Heterogeneity in pooled estimates of repeat self-harm incidence was investigated using stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression. The search identified 177 relevant papers. The risk of suicide in the 12 months after an index attempt was 1.6% (CI 1.2–2.4) and 3.9% (CI 3.2–4.8) after 5 years. The estimated 1 year rate of non-fatal repeat self-harm was 16.3% (CI 15.1–17.7). This proportion was considerably lower in Asian countries (10.0%, CI 7.3–13.6%) and varies between studies identifying repeat episodes using hospital admission data (13.7%, CI 12.3–15.3) and studies using patient report (21.9%, CI 14.3–32.2). There was no evidence that the incidence of repeat self-harm was lower in more recent (post 2000) studies compared to those from the 1980s and 1990s. Conclusions: One in 25 patients presenting to hospital for self-harm will kill themselves in the next 5 years. The incidence of repeat self-harm and suicide in this population has not changed in over 10 years. Different methods of identifying repeat episodes of self-harm produce varying estimates of incidence and this heterogeneity should be considered when evaluating interventions aimed at reducing non-fatal repeat self-harm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Around 67 million pets are owned by households in the United Kingdom, and an increasing number of these are exotic animals. Approximately a third of pets are purchased through retail outlets or direct from breeders. A wide range of infections can be associated with companion animals. Objectives: This study uses a systematic literature review to describe the transmission of zoonotic disease in humans associated with a pet shop or other location selling pets (incidents of rabies tracebacks and zoonoses from pet food were excluded). Data sources: PubMed and EMBASE. Results: Fifty seven separate case reports or incidents were described in the 82 papers that were identified by the systematic review. Summary information on each incident is included in this manuscript. The infections include bacterial, viral and fungal diseases and range in severity from mild to life threatening. Infections associated with birds and rodents were the most commonly reported. Over half of the reports describe incidents in the Americas, and three of these were outbreaks involving more than 50 cases. Many of the incidents identified relate to infections in pet shop employees. Limitations: This review may have been subject to publication bias, where unusual and unexpected zoonotic infections may be over-represented in peer-reviewed publications. It was also restricted to English-language articles so that pathogens that are more common in non-Western countries, or in more exotic animals not common in Europe and the Americas, may have been under-represented. Conclusions/implications: A wide spectrum of zoonotic infections are acquired from pet shops. Salmonellosis and psittacosis were the most commonly documented diseases, however more unusual infections such as tularemia also appeared in the review. Given their potential to spread zoonotic infection, it is important that pet shops act to minimise the risk as far as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a stratified analysis, the results from different strata if homogeneity assumption is met are pooled together to obtain a single summary estimate for the common effect parameter. However, the effect can appear homogeneous across strata using one measure but heterogeneous using another. Consequently, two researchers analyzing the same data can arrive at conflicting conclusions if they use different effect measures. In this paper, the author draws on the sufficient component cause model to develop a stratified-analysis method regarding a particular effect measure, the ‘peril ratio’. When there is no mechanistic interaction between the exposure under study and the stratifying variable (i.e., when they do not work together to complete any sufficient cause), the peril ratio is constant across strata. The author presents formulas for the estimation of such a common peril ratio. Three real data are re-analyzed for illustration. When the data is consistent with peril-ratio homogeneity in a stratified analysis, researchers can use the formulas in this paper to pool the strata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the cost-effectiveness of a 20% price discount on healthy food and beverages with and without consumer nutrition education, as trialled in remote Northern Australia. Changes in actual store sales, from the pre-discount baseline period, were analysed for population impact on consumption of fruit and vegetables, water and artificially sweetened soft drinks, in addition with total dietary weight (grams), energy (Mega Joules), and sodium (milligrams). Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), arising from changes in dietary risk factor prevalence in the population, were estimated as the primary health outcome in a multi health-state Markov model. The costs of the strategies were sourced from paid invoices and time estimates of staff providing store-based discount promotion and consumer education. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio adopted a partial societal perspective, (including health and retail sector costs), as cost per DALY averted and was presented in 2011 Australian dollars. The price discount, helped address a gap in food price equity for residents of remote communities. However, the discount strategy, with or without consumer education led to a net loss of population health –36 95%CI (-47,-25) or -21(-28, -15) DALYs respectively, at increased cost to the retail and health sectors, of AUD860000 95%CI (710000, 1million) or AUD500000 (410000, 590000). The strategies trialled were thereby categorised as dominated by current practice while acknowledging considerable uncertainty surrounding the health outcome estimates. The 20% discount on limited targeted products appeared to need to be considered in conjunction with other marketing strategies to support healthy food choices, if remote Australian Indigenous population health is to be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. We define a disease event to be a biological event with focus on the One Health paradigm. These events are characterized by evidence of infection and or disease condition. We reviewed models that attempted to predict a disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics and we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). We searched commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models, using terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling. After removal of duplications and extraneous material, a core collection of 6,524 items was established, and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers, and the results are presented in this analysis. We identified 44 models, classified as one or more of the following: event prediction (4), spatial (26), ecological niche (28), diagnostic or clinical (6), spread or response (9), and reviews (3). The model parameters (e.g., etiology, climatic, spatial, cultural) and data sources (e.g., remote sensing, non-governmental organizations, expert opinion, epidemiological) were recorded and reviewed. A component of this review is the identification of verification and validation (V&V) methods applied to each model, if any V&V method was reported. All models were classified as either having undergone Some Verification or Validation method, or No Verification or Validation. We close by outlining an initial set of operational readiness level guidelines for disease prediction models based upon established Technology Readiness Level definitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Despite the high number of amateur musicians in the general population, little is known about the musculoskeletal health of amateur musicians. Playing a musical instrument is supposed to be a risk factor for the development of musculoskeletal complaints. This study aimed to evaluate playing-related musculoskeletal disorders (PRMDs) among amateur musicians playing in student orchestras. Design: A cross-sectional study. Participants: 357 members of eleven Dutch student orchestras across the Netherlands were included in this study. Intervention: A paper-based questionnaire on PRMDs was used. Outcome measures: Sociodemographic characteristics and PRMDs were evaluated using an adaptation of the Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire (NMQ) and the music module of the Disabilities of Shoulder and Hand (DASH) questionnaire. Results: The year prevalence of PRMDs among amateur musicians was 67.8%. Female gender, younger age, higher BMI and playing a string instrument were independently associated with a higher prevalence of PRMDs. The left shoulder was affected more frequently in violinists and violists, whereas the right hand and wrist were more frequently affected in woodwind instrumentalists. Of the subjects with PRMDs during the last week, the score of the music module of the DASH was 18.8 (6.3–31.2) Discussion: This study is the first to report on PRMDs and its associated factors in a large group of amateur musicians. The prevalence of PRMDs in amateur musicians is high, however the DASH scores reflect a confined impact of these PRMDs on their functioning as a musician. Preventive measures are needed aiming at reducing PRMDs among amateur musicians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the most common cause of non-communicable disease mortality in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Gaps in knowledge of CVD conditions and their risk factors are important barriers in effective prevention and treatment. Yet, evidence on the awareness and knowledge level of CVD and associated risk factors among populations of SSA is scarce. This review aimed to synthesize available evidence of the level of knowledge of and perceptions towards CVDs and risk factors in the SSA region. Methods: Five databases were searched for publications up to December 2016. Narrative synthesis was conducted for knowledge level of CVDs, knowledge of risk factors and clinical signs, factors influencing knowledge of CVDs and source of health information on CVDs. The review was registered with Prospero (CRD42016049165). Results: Of 2212 titles and abstracts screened, 45 full-text papers were retrieved and reviewed and 20 were included: eighteen quantitative and two qualitative studies. Levels of knowledge and awareness for CVD and risk factors were generally low, coupled with poor perception. Most studies reported less than half of their study participants having good knowledge of CVDs and/or risk factors. Proportion of participants who were unable to identify a single risk factor and clinical symptom for CVDs ranged from 1.8% in a study among hospital staff in Nigeria to a high of 73% in a population-based survey in Uganda and 7% among University staff in Nigeria to 75.1% in a general population in Uganda respectively. High educational attainment and place of residence had a significant influence on the levels of knowledge for CVDs among SSA populations. Conclusion: Low knowledge of CVDs, risk factors and clinical symptoms is strongly associated with the low levels of educational attainment and rural residency in the region. These findings provide useful information for implementers of interventions targeted at the prevention and control of CVDs, and encourages them to incorporate health promotion and awareness campaigns in order to enhance knowledge and awareness of CVDs in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mental health can affect young people’s sense of wellbeing and life satisfaction, their ability to participate in employment and education, and their onward opportunities in life. This paper offers a rare opportunity to longitudinally examine mental health in a population-representative study of children aged 4–5 years to 14–15 years. Using data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), this study examined maternally-reported child mental health over a 10 year period, in order to understand their initial mental health status early in life and its change over time, as measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Longitudinal models were fitted from ages 4–5 to 14–15 years. Results showed that child sex, maternal mental health, socio-economic status (family income, maternal education, neighbourhood disadvantage), maternal hostility, and child temperament (persistence, sociability, reactivity) are all independent contributors to child mental health at age 4. These effects largely persist over time, with the effects of maternal mental health increasing slightly over time. Persistence of these effects suggests the need for early intervention and supports. The independent contribution of these factors to child mental health suggests that multi-faceted approaches to child and maternal mental health are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease impose substantial clinical and economic burdens for seniors (age 65 and above) and the Medicare program. Intensive Behavioral Counseling (IBC) interventions like the National Diabetes Prevention Program (NDPP), have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing excess body weight and lowering or delaying morbidity onset. This paper estimated the potential health implications and medical savings of a digital version of IBC modeled after the NDPP. Methods and Findings: Participants in this digital IBC intervention, the Omada program, include 1,121 overweight or obese seniors with additional risk factors for diabetes or heart disease. Weight changes were objectively measured via participant use of a networked weight scale. Participants averaged 6.8% reduction in body weight within 26 weeks, and 89% of participants completed 9 or more of the 16 core phase lessons. We used a Markov-based microsimulation model to simulate the impact of weight loss on future health states and medical expenditures over 10 years. Cumulative per capita medical expenditure savings over 3, 5 and 10 years ranged from $1,720 to 1,770 (3 years), $3,840 to $4,240 (5 years) and $11,550 to $14,200 (10 years). The range reflects assumptions of weight re-gain similar to that seen in the DPP clinical trial (lower bound) or minimal weight re-gain aligned with age-adjusted national averages (upper bound). The estimated net economic benefit after IBC costs is $10,250 to $12,840 cumulative over 10 years. Simulation outcomes suggest reduced incidence of diabetes by 27–41% for participants with prediabetes, and stroke by approximately 15% over 5 years. Conclusions: A digital, remotely-delivered IBC program can help seniors at risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease achieve significant weight loss, reduces risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and achieve meaningful medical cost savings. These findings affirm recommendations for IBC coverage by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smoking has been identified as the second greatest risk factor for global death and disability and has impacts on the oral cavity from aesthetic changes to fatal diseases such as oral cancer. The paper presents a secondary analysis of the National Adult Dental Health Survey (2009). The analysis used descriptive statistics, bivariate analyses and logistic regression models to report the self-reported oral health status and dental attendance of smokers and non-smokers in England. Of the 9,657 participants, 21% reported they were currently smoking. When compared with smokers; non-smokers were more likely to report ‘good oral health’ (75% versus 57% respectively, p<0.05). Smokers were twice as likely to attend the dentist symptomatically (OR = 2.27, CI = 2.02–2.55) compared with non-smoker regardless the deprivation status. Smokers were more likely to attend symptomatically in the most deprived quintiles (OR = 1.99, CI = 1.57–2.52) and perceive they had poorer oral health (OR = 1.77, CI = 1.42–2.20). The present research is consistent with earlier sub-national research and should be considered when planning early diagnosis and management strategies for smoking-related conditions, considering the potential impact dental teams might have on smoking rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies aimed at understanding the association between induced abortion and HIV are scarce and differ on the direction of the association. This paper aims to show the prevalence of induced abortion in a sample of pregnancies of women living and not living with HIV/Aids, determining variables associated with pregnancy termination and linked to the life course of women and to the specific context of the pregnancy. Methods: Data came from a cross-sectional study, using interviewer-administered questionnaire, developed with women that attended public health services in Porto Alegre, Brazil. A generalized estimating equation model with logit link measured the association between determinants and abortion. Findings: The final sample was composed of 684 women living with HIV/Aids (2,039 pregnancies) and 639 women not living with HIV/Aids (1,539 pregnancies). The prevalence of induced abortion among pregnancies in women living with HIV/Aids was 6.5%, while in women not living with HIV/Aids was 2.9%. Among women living with HIV/Aids, the following were associated with induced abortion in the multivariable analysis: being older, having a higher education level, having had more sexual partners (i.e., variables linked to the life course of women), having had children prior to the index pregnancy and living with a sexual partner during pregnancy (i.e., variables linked to the context of each pregnancy). On the other hand, among women not living with HIV/Aids, only having a higher education level and having had more sexual partners (i.e., determinants linked to the life course of women) were associated with voluntary pregnancy termination in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: Although determinants are similar between women living and not living with HIV/Aids, prevalence of induced abortion is higher among pregnancies in women living with HIV/Aids, pointing to their greater social vulnerability and to the need for public policy to address prevention and treatment of HIV associated with reproductive issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a performance measure for a prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is insensitive to the addition of strong markers. A number of measures sensitive to performance change have recently been proposed; however, these relative-performance measures may lead to self-contradictory conclusions. This paper examines alternative performance measures for prediction models: the Lorenz curve-based Gini and Pietra indices, and a standardized version of the Brier score, the scaled Brier. Computer simulations are performed in order to study the sensitivity of these measures to performance change when a new marker is added to a baseline model. When the discrimination power of the added marker is concentrated in the gray zone of the baseline model, the AUC and the Gini show minimal performance improvements. The Pietra and the scaled Brier show more significant improvements in the same situation, comparatively. The Pietra and the scaled Brier indices are therefore recommended for prediction model performance measurement, in light of their ease of interpretation, clinical relevance and sensitivity to gray-zone resolving markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: It is known that experience of a previous crash is related to incidence of future crashes in a cohort of New Zealand cyclists. This paper investigated if the strength of such association differed by crash involvement propensity and by the need for medical care in the previous crash. Methods: The Taupo Bicycle Study involved 2590 adult cyclists recruited in 2006 and followed over a median period of 4.6 years through linkage to four national databases. The crash involvement propensity was estimated using propensity scores based on the participants' demographic, cycling and residential characteristics. Cox regression modelling for repeated events was performed with multivariate and propensity score adjustments. Analyses were then stratified by quintiles of the propensity score. Results: A total of 801 (31.0%) participants reported having experienced at least one bicycle crash in the twelve months prior to the baseline survey. They had a higher risk of experiencing crash events during follow-up (hazard ratio (HR): 1.43; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.60) but in the stratified analysis, this association was significant only in the highest two quintiles of the propensity score where the likelihood of having experienced a crash was more than 33%. The association was stronger for previous crashes that had received medical care (HR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.41, 1.88) compared to those that had not (HR 1.30; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.49). Conclusions: Previous crash experience increased the risk of future crash involvement in high-risk cyclists and the association was stronger for previous crashes attended medically. What distinguishes the high risk group warrants closer investigation, and the findings indicate also that health service providers could play an important role in prevention of bicycle crash injuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey. Methods and Findings: Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of $235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia; $39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria; $6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and $1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey. Conclusion: Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Community-based peer support has been shown to be effective in improving exclusive breastfeeding rates in a variety of settings. Methods: We conducted a cost analysis of a community cluster randomised-controlled trial (Promise-EBF), aimed at promoting exclusive infant feeding in three sites in South Africa. The costs were considered from the perspective of health service providers. Peer supporters in this trial visited women to support exclusive infant feeding, once antenatally and four times postpartum. Results: The total economic cost of the Promise-EBF intervention was US$393 656, with average costs per woman and per visit of US$228 and US$52, respectively. The average costs per woman and visit in an operational ‘non research’ scenario were US$137 and US$32 per woman and visit, respectively. Investing in the promotion of exclusive infant feeding requires substantial financial commitment from policy makers. Extending the tasks of multi-skilled community health workers (CHWs) to include promoting exclusive infant feeding is a potential option for reducing these costs. In order to avoid efficiency losses, we recommend that the time requirements for delivering the promotion of exclusive infant feeding are considered when integrating it within the existing activities of CHWs. Discussion: This paper focuses on interventions for exclusive infant feeding, but its findings more generally illustrate the importance of documenting and quantifying factors that affect the feasibility and sustainability of community-based interventions, which are receiving increased focus in low income settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria prevalence remains high in many African countries despite massive scaling-up of insecticide treated nets (ITN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). This paper evaluates the protective effect of pyrethroid IRS and ITNs in relation to risk factors for malaria based on a study conducted in North-West Tanzania, where IRS has been conducted since 2007 and universal coverage of ITNs has been carried out recently. In 2011 community-based cross-sectional surveys were conducted in the two main malaria transmission periods that occur after the short and long rainy seasons. These included 5,152 and 4,325 children aged 0.5–14 years, respectively. Data on IRS and ITN coverage, household demographics and socio-economic status were collected using an adapted version of the Malaria Indicator Survey. Children were screened for malaria by rapid diagnostic test. In the second survey, haemoglobin density was measured and filter paper blood spots were collected to determine age-specific sero-prevalence in each community surveyed. Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in children 0.5–14 years old was 9.3% (95%CI:5.9–14.5) and 22.8% (95%CI:17.3–29.4) in the two surveys. Risk factors for infection after the short rains included households not being sprayed (OR = 0.39; 95%CI:0.20–0.75); low community net ownership (OR = 0.45; 95%CI:0.21–0.95); and low community SES (least poor vs. poorest tertile: OR = 0.13, 95%CI:0.05–0.34). Risk factors after the long rains included household poverty (per quintile increase: OR = 0.89; 95%CI:0.82–0.97) and community poverty (least poor vs. poorest tertile: OR = 0.26, 95%CI:0.15–0.44); household IRS or high community ITN ownership were not protective. Despite high IRS coverage and equitable LLIN distribution, poverty was an important risk factor for malaria suggesting it could be beneficial to target additional malaria control activities to poor households and communities. High malaria prevalence in some clusters and the limited protection given by pyrethroid IRS and LLINs suggest that it may be necessary to enhance established vector control activities and consider additional interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To determine prevalence and incidence of bacterial vaginosis (BV) and risk factors in young sexually-active Australian women. Methods: 1093 women aged 16–25 years were recruited from primary-care clinics. Participants completed 3-monthly questionnaires and self-collected vaginal smears 6-monthly for 12-months. The primary endpoint was a Nugent Score = 7–10 (BV) and the secondary endpoint was a NS = 4–10 (abnormal flora [AF]). BV and AF prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were derived, and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) calculated to explore epidemiological associations with prevalent BV and AF. Proportional-hazards regression models were used to examine factors associated with incident BV and AF. Results: At baseline 129 women had BV [11.8% (95%CI: 9.4–14.2)] and 188 AF (17.2%; 15.1–19.5). Prevalent BV was associated with having a recent female partner [AOR = 2.1; 1.0–4.4] and lack of tertiary-education [AOR = 1.9; 1.2–3.0]; use of an oestrogen-containing contraceptive (OCC) was associated with reduced risk [AOR = 0.6; 0.4–0.9]. Prevalent AF was associated with the same factors, and additionally with >5 male partners (MSP) in 12-months [AOR = 1.8; 1.2–2.5)], and detection of C.trachomatis or M.genitalium [AOR = 2.1; 1.0–4.5]. There were 82 cases of incident BV (9.4%;7.7–11.7/100 person-years) and 129 with incident AF (14.8%; 12.5–17.6/100 person-years). Incident BV and AF were associated with a new MSP [adjusted rate ratio (ARR) = 1.5; 1.1–2.2 and ARR = 1.5; 1.1–2.0], respectively. OCC-use was associated with reduced risk of incident AF [ARR = 0.7; 0.5–1.0]. Conclusion: This paper presents BV and AF prevalence and incidence estimates from a large prospective cohort of young Australian women predominantly recruited from primary-care clinics. These data support the concept that sexual activity is strongly associated with the development of BV and AF and that use of an OCC is associated with reduced risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Vitamin B12 deficiency is prevalent in many countries of origin of refugees. Using a threshold of 5% above which a prevalence of low Vitamin B12 is indicative of a population health problem, we hypothesised that Vitamin B12 deficiency exceeds this threshold among newly-arrived refugees resettling in Australia, and is higher among women due to their increased risk of food insecurity. This paper reports Vitamin B12 levels in a large cohort of newly arrived refugees in five Australian states and territories. Methods: In a cross-sectional descriptive study, we collected Vitamin B12, folate and haematological indices on all refugees (n = 916; response rate 94% of eligible population) who had been in Australia for less than one year, and attended one of the collaborating health services between July 2010 and July 2011. Results: 16.5% of participants had Vitamin B12 deficiency (<150 pmol/L). One-third of participants from Iran and Bhutan, and one-quarter of participants from Afghanistan had Vitamin B12 deficiency. Contrary to our hypothesis, low Vitamin B12 levels were more prevalent in males than females. A higher prevalence of low Vitamin B12 was also reported in older age groups in some countries. The sensitivity of macrocytosis in detecting Vitamin B12 deficiency was only 4.6%. Conclusion: Vitamin B12 deficiency is an important population health issue in newly-arrived refugees from many countries. All newly-arrived refugees should be tested for Vitamin B12 deficiency. Ongoing research should investigate causes, treatment, and ways to mitigate food insecurity, and the contribution of such measures to enhancing the health of the refugee communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the relationship between allergy and cancer has been investigated extensively, the role of allergy in head and neck cancer (HNC) appears less consistent. It is not clear whether allergies can independently influence the risk of HNC in the presence of known strong environmental risk factors, including consumption of alcohol, betel quid, and cigarette. Methods: The current paper reports results from: 1) an original hospital-based case-control study, which included 252 incident cases of HNC and 236 controls frequency-matched to cases on sex and age; and 2) a meta-analysis combining the results of the current case-control study and 13 previously published studies (9 cohort studies with 727,569 subjects and 550 HNC outcomes and 5 case-control studies with 4,017 HNC cases and 10,928 controls). Results: In the original case-control study, we observed a strong inverse association between allergies and HNC [odds ratio = 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.27–0.62]. The meta-analysis also indicated a statistically significant inverse association between HNC and allergies [meta-relative risk (RR) = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63–0.91], particularly strong for allergic rhinitis (meta-RR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.40–0.76). In addition, the inverse association between allergies and HNC was observed only among men (meta-RR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.54–0.84) but not among women (meta-RR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.81–1.18). Conclusions: These findings suggest that immunity plays an influential role in the risk of HNC. Future studies investigating immune biomarkers, including cytokine profiles and genetic polymorphisms, are warranted to further delineate the relationship between allergies and HNC. Understanding the relationship between allergies and HNC may help devise effective strategies to reduce and treat HNC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: India, with a population of more than 1.21 billion, has the highest maternal mortality in the world (estimated to be 56000 in 2010); and adolescent (aged 15–19) mortality shares 9% of total maternal deaths. Addressing the maternity care needs of adolescents may have considerable ramifications for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)–5. This paper assesses the socioeconomic differentials in accessing full antenatal care and professional attendance at delivery by adolescent mothers (aged 15–19) in India during 1990–2006. Methods and Findings: Data from three rounds of the National Family Health Survey of India conducted during 1992–93, 1998–99, and 2005–06 were analyzed. The Cochran-Armitage and Chi-squared test for linear and non-linear time trends were applied, respectively, to understand the trend in the proportion of adolescent mothers utilizing select maternity care services during 1990–2006. Using pooled multivariate logistic regression models, the probability of select maternal healthcare utilization among women by key socioeconomic characteristics was appraised. After adjusting for potential socio-demographic and economic characteristics, the likelihood of adolescents accessing full antenatal care increased by only 4% from 1990 to 2006. However, the probability of adolescent women availing themselves of professional attendance at delivery increased by 79% during the same period. The study also highlights the desolate disparities in maternity care services among adolescents across the most and the least favoured groups. Conclusion: Maternal care interventions in India need focused programs for rural, uneducated, poor adolescent women so that they can avail themselves of measures to delay child bearing, and for better antenatal consultation and delivery care in case of pregnancy. This study strongly advocates the promotion of a comprehensive ‘adolescent scheme’ along the lines of ‘Continuum of Maternal, Newborn and Child health Care’ to address the unmet need of reproductive and maternal healthcare services among adolescent women in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tobacco smoking (TS) and illicit drug use (IDU) are of public health concerns especially in developing countries, including Bangladesh. This paper aims to (i) identify the determinants of TS and IDU, and (ii) examine the association of TS with IDU among young slum dwellers in Bangladesh. Methodology/Principal Findings: Data on a total of 1,576 young slum dwellers aged 15–24 years were extracted for analysis from the 2006 Urban Health Survey (UHS), which covered a nationally representative sample of 13,819 adult men aged 15–59 years from slums, non-slums and district municipalities of six administrative regions in Bangladesh. Methods used include frequency run, Chi-square test of association and multivariable logistic regression. The overall prevalence of TS in the target group was 42.3%, of which 41.4% smoked cigarettes and 3.1% smoked bidis. The regression model for TS showed that age, marital status, education, duration of living in slums, and those with sexually transmitted infections were significantly (p<0.001 to p<0.05) associated with TS. The overall prevalence of IDU was 9.1%, dominated by those who had drug injections (3.2%), and smoked ganja (2.8%) and tari (1.6%). In the regression model for IDU, the significant (p<0.01 to p<0.10) predictors were education, duration of living in slums, and whether infected by sexually transmitted diseases. The multivariable logistic regression (controlling for other variables) revealed significantly (p<0.001) higher likelihood of IDU (OR = 9.59, 95% CI = 5.81–15.82) among users of any form of TS. The likelihood of IDU increased significantly (p<0.001) with increased use of cigarettes. Conclusions/Significance: Certain groups of youth are more vulnerable to TS and IDU. Therefore, tobacco and drug control efforts should target these groups to reduce the consequences of risky lifestyles through information, education and communication (IEC) programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Excess mortality from diseases and medical conditions (natural death) in persons with psychiatric disorders has been extensively reported. Even in the Nordic countries with well-developed welfare systems, register based studies find evidence of an excess mortality. In recent years, cardiac mortality and death by diseases of the circulatory system has seen a decline in all the Nordic countries, but a recent paper indicates that women and men in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, who had been hospitalised for a psychotic disorder, had a two to three-fold increased risk of dying from a cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to compare the mortality by diseases of the circulatory system among patients with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia in the three Nordic countries Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Furthermore, the aim was to examine and compare life expectancy among these patients. Cause specific Standardized Mortality Rates (SMRs) were calculated for each specific subgroup of mortality. Life expectancy was calculated using Wiesler’s method. Results: The SMR for bipolar disorder for diseases of the circulatory system was approximately 2 in all countries and both sexes. SMR was slightly higher for people with schizophrenia for both genders and in all countries, except for men in Denmark. Overall life expectancy was much lower among persons with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia, with life expectancy being from 11 to 20 years shorter. Conclusion: Our data show that persons in the Nordic countries with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder have a substantially reduced life expectancy. An evaluation of the reasons for these increased mortality rates should be prioritized when planning healthcare in the coming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Health risk analyses (HRA) indicate whether, and to which extent of severity, a given chemical substance may constitute a threat for health, e.g., the accidental ingestion of water during recreational use with direct contact. Objectives of this paper are to estimate the risk from an accidental ingestion of water carrying agrichemicals (á y ä HCH, Aldrine, ã – Chlordane, Glyphosate, and Imazethapyr) while bathing in the Azul River bathing resort by making use of HRA, and to discuss the potential use of such a tool for water resources management. It is based on the USEPA model, and, with the exception of the concentration of the substance in water, all other variables (ingestion rate, weight of individuals, frequency and duration of the exposition) are treated probabilistically and fit a recreational scenario with direct contact. The aggregated risk is estimated with an additive model of the particular risk of each substance. Results show that the risk, non carcinogenetic effects, may be disregarded because its value is always less than 1 (Aldrine is the principal contributor). Regarding the carcinogenetic effects, although the value is slightly greater than the limiting value of 10-5, the conservative approach of this study makes it to be minimized (its principal contributor is á –HCH). The Buenos Aires Province does not count with regulations referred to the quality of natural waters used for bathing. For that reason, the HRA stand out as an option for decision-makers given the absence of alternative management strategies.

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become a global public health problem, which threatens Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) including Nigeria. Civil servants are at risk of NCDs because of the stressful and sedentary nature of their work. The study aimed to determine the prevalence and associated factors of the major risk factors of NCDs among civil servants in Ibadan, Nigeria. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 606 civil servants in Oyo State using a two-stage cluster sampling technique. The WHO Stepwise approach was used to assess the behavioural and metabolic risk factors. Anthropometric (weight, height, waist and hip circumferences), blood pressure and biochemical measurements (fasting blood sugar) were obtained. Prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Multivariate logistic models with adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were used to assess the associated factors of NCD risk factors. Multiple Poisson regression was also performed to determine the effects of certain socio-demographic factors on the clustering of NCD risk factors. Results: The mean age of the civil servants was 43.0±10.3 and 53.8% were males. The prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals of the risk factors were 6.5% (95% CI:4.5–8.5) for current smoking, 7.8% (95% CI:5.1–10.5) for harmful use of alcohol, 62.2% (95% CI:58.2–66.2) for low physical activity, 69.7% (95% CI:66.0–73.4) for insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, 37.1% (95% CI:33.2–41.0) for abdominal obesity, 57.3% (95% CI:53.3–61.3) for overweight and obesity, 33.1% (95% CI:29.3–36.8) for raised blood pressure and 7.1% (95% CI:5.0–9.1) for raised blood sugar. Over 75% of the population had at least two NCD risk factors and the study participants had an average of 3 NCD risk factors 3.01 (95% CI: 2.88–3.14) The female gender was significantly associated with an increased risk for abdominal obesity (AOR 27.9; 95% CI: 12.09–64.6) and being overweight or obese (AOR 6.78; 95% CI: 3.53–13.01), but was protective of smoking (AOR 0.21; 95% CI: 0.07–0.61) and binge drinking (AOR 0.04; 95% CI: 0.01–0.45). Also, the risk of hypertension increased with age– 30–39 years (AOR 12.29; 95% CI: 1.06–141.8), 40–49 years (AOR 14.28; 95% CI: 1.10–181.4) and 50 years and above (AOR 32.43; 95% CI: 2.44–413.7). Raised blood pressure was a strong correlate for having raised blood sugar (AOR 5.63; 95% CI: 1.48–21.3). Increasing age (IRR 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01–1.02) and being female (IRR 1.36; 95% CI: 1.23–1.49) were also important predictors of the clustering of risk factors. Conclusion: The feminization (i.e. the preponderance of risk factors among the females) and clustering of non-communicable disease risk factors were observed among Oyo State civil servants. Our findings highlight the high prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors among the working class. Hence the need for targeted preventive and therapeutic interventions among this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evidence supports the integration of prevention and management for tuberculosis (TB) with non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Bi-directional screening for TB and diabetes mellitus (DM) is already implemented in India, a country with a dual burden of TB and NCDs. However, very limited programmatic data are available on the feasibility of adding other NCDs and their risk factors in such screening programme. Objective: To assess the yield, feasibility, and acceptability of a two-stage integrated screening for NCDs and risk factors for NCDs among patients with TB ≥20 years and treated in DOTS centres of two medical colleges in Delhi, between October 2016 and March 2017. Methods: It was a mixed-methods, triangulation study with a quantitative component (cross-sectional study using questionnaires, anthropometric measurements and records review) and a qualitative component (descriptive study using interview data). Results: Amongst 403 patients screened, the prevalence of hypertension was 7% (n = 28) with 20 new cases detected and 8% for DM (n = 32) with 6 new cases diagnosed. The number needed to screen to find a new case was 20 and 63 for hypertension and DM respectively. The most frequent NCD-risk factors were inadequate vegetable (80%) and fruits (72%) intake, alcohol use (34%), use of smokeless tobacco (33%) and smoking (32%). Clustering of four or more risk factors was associated with increasing age and male sex (p<0.05). Both patients and health providers considered the screening relevant and acceptable. However, waiting time and costs involved in blood tests were considered as bothersome by the patients, while health providers perceived increased workload, inadequate medical supplies and inadequate skills and knowledge as key challenges in implementation of the screening. Conclusion: Integrating screening for NCDs and their risk factors in the existing TB programme produces high yield and it is feasible and acceptable by patients and health providers provided the challenges are overcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a Perspective, David Peiris and Dorairaj Prabhakaran discuss implications and challenges of cardiovascular disease risk assessments in the population of India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Modifiable risk factors such as smoking and sedentary lifestyle adversely affect multiple sclerosis (MS) progression. Few multimodal behavioural interventions have been conducted for people with MS, and follow-up beyond 1 year is rare for lifestyle interventions. This study assessed adoption and adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviours and health outcomes 3 years after a lifestyle modification intervention, using generalized estimating equation models to account for within-participant correlation over time. Methods: 95 people with MS completed baseline surveys before participating in 5-day MS lifestyle risk-factor modification workshops. 76 and 78 participants completed the 1-year and 3-year follow-up surveys respectively. Mean age at 3-year follow-up was 47 years, 72% were female, most (62.8%) had MS for 5 years or less, and 73% had relapsing remitting MS (RRMS). Results: Compared to baseline, participants reported clinically meaningful increases in physical (mean difference (MD): 8.0, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 5.2–10.8) and mental health (MD: 9.2, CI: 5.8–12.6) quality of life (QOL) at 1-year, and physical (MD: 8.7, CI: 5.3–12.2) and mental health (MD: 8.0, CI: 4.2–11.8) QOL at 3-year follow-up. There was a small decrease in disability from baseline to 1-year follow-up (MD: 0.9, CI: 0.9,1.0) and to 3-year follow-up (MD: 1.0, CI: 0.9,1.0), which was not clinically meaningful. Of those with RRMS, compared to baseline, fewer had a relapse during the year before 1-year follow-up (OR: 0.1, CI 0.0–0.2) and 3-year follow-up (OR: 0.15, CI 0.06–0.33). Participants’ healthy diet score, the proportion meditating ≥1 hours a week, supplementing with ≥ 5000IU vitamin D daily, and supplementing with omega-3 flaxseed oil increased at 1-year follow-up and was sustained, although slightly lower at 3-year follow-up. However, there was no evidence for a change in physical activity and not enough smokers to make meaningful comparisons. Medication use increased at 1-year follow-up and at 3-year follow-up. Conclusion: The results provide evidence that lifestyle risk factor modification is feasible and sustainable over time, in a small self-selected and motivated sample of people with MS. Furthermore, participation in a lifestyle intervention is not associated with a decrease in MS medication use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multimorbidity is increasingly common and is associated with adverse health outcomes, highlighting the need to broaden the single-disease framework that dominates medical research. We examined the role of midlife clinical characteristics, socioeconomic position, and behavioural factors in the development of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (at least 2 of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke), along with how these factors modify risk of mortality.Methods and Findings: Data on 8,270 men and women were drawn from the Whitehall II cohort study, with mean follow-up of 23.7 years (1985 to 2017). Three sets of risk factors were assessed at age 50 years, each on a 5-point scale: clinical profile (hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, overweight/obesity, family history of cardiometabolic disease), occupational position, and behavioural factors (smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, physical activity). The outcomes examined were cardiometabolic disease (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke), cardiometabolic multimorbidity, and mortality. We used multi-state models to examine the role of risk factors in 5 components of the cardiometabolic disease trajectory: from healthy state to first cardiometabolic disease, from first cardiometabolic disease to cardiometabolic multimorbidity, from healthy state to death, from first cardiometabolic disease to death, and from cardiometabolic multimorbidity to death. A total of 2,501 participants developed 1 of the 3 cardiometabolic diseases, 511 developed cardiometabolic multimorbidity, and 1,406 died. When behavioural and clinical risk factors were considered individually, only smoking was associated with all five transitions. In a model containing all 3 risk factor scales, midlife clinical profile was the strongest predictor of first cardiometabolic disease (hazard ratio for the least versus most favourable profile: 3.74; 95% CI: 3.14-4.45) among disease-free participants. Among participants with 1 cardiometabolic disease, adverse midlife socioeconomic (1.54; 95% CI: 1.10-2.15) and behavioural factors (2.00; 95% CI: 1.40-2.85), but not clinical characteristics, were associated with progression to cardiometabolic multimorbidity. Only midlife behavioural factors predicted mortality among participants with cardiometabolic disease (2.12; 95% CI: 1.41-3.18) or cardiometabolic multimorbidity (3.47; 95% CI: 1.81-6.66). A limitation is that the study was not large enough to estimate transitions between each disease and subsequent outcomes and between all possible pairs of diseases.Conclusions: The importance of specific midlife factors in disease progression, from disease-free state to single disease, multimorbidity, and death, varies depending on the disease stage. While clinical risk factors at age 50 determine the risk of incident cardiometabolic disease in a disease-free population, midlife socioeconomic and behavioural factors are stronger predictors of progression to multimorbidity and mortality in people with cardiometabolic disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results: From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions: We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a Perspective, Joshua Knowles and Euan Ashley discuss the potential for use of genetic risk scores in clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objectives: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health burden and is independently associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in the general population using prognostic models based on routinely collected risk factors is embedded in clinical practice. In CKD, prognostic models may misrepresent risk due to the interplay of traditional atherosclerotic and non-traditional risk factors. This systematic review’s aim was to identify routinely collected risk factors for inclusion in a CKD-specific cardiovascular prognostic model. Design, setting, participants and measurements: Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational cohort studies and randomized controlled trials. Studies identified from MEDLINE and Embase searches using a pre-defined and registered protocol (PROSPERO ID—2016:CRD42016036187). The main inclusion criteria were individuals ≥18 years of age with non-endstage CKD. Routinely collected risk factors where multi-variable adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors had occurred were extracted. The primary outcome was fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. Results: The review of 3,232, abstracts identified 29 routinely collected risk factors of which 20 were presented in more than 1 cohort. 21 cohorts were identified in relation to 27,465 individuals and 100,838 person-years. In addition to established traditional general population cardiovascular risk factors, left ventricular hypertrophy, serum albumin, phosphate, urate and hemoglobin were all found to be statistically significant in their association with future cardiovascular events. Conclusions: These non-traditional risk factors should be assessed in the development of future cardiovascular prognostic models for use in individuals with CKD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Switzerland, the national HIV testing recommendations propose targeted testing. Although the emergency department (ED) is mentioned specifically as a site where HIV testing should take place, the testing rate in our ED is 1% of patients seen. The aim of this study was to use electronic tablets to offer testing to ED patients and to examine whether non-targeted screening increased testing rates compared to targeted testing. Methods: This randomised, cross-over design study took place at Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland, between August and November 2015. Eligible patients were randomised to a targeted testing or a non-targeted screening arm. Using electronic tablets, targeted arm patients completed a risk factor assessment; patients with risk factors were offered free rapid HIV testing. Non-targeted arm patients received information about HIV and HIV testing on their tablet and were then offered testing. In a second step, patients who declined testing were crossed over to the other strategy. The primary endpoint was the HIV testing rate per arm. Results: Eighty patients were recruited to each study arm. In the targeted arm, 17 patients (of 80, 21%) had at least one risk factor and were offered testing, of whom eight (of 17, 47%) accepted. HIV testing rate in the targeted arm was 10% (8/80) compared to 48% (38/80) in the non-targeted arm (P<0.001). Secondary cross–screening, where targeted arm patients without risk factors were offered non-targeted screening, increased the testing rate in the targeted arm to 45% (36/80). Among patients offered testing, the acceptance rate did not differ between targeted and non-targeted arms, at 48% and 53%, respectively (P = 0.9) Discussion: In our centre, non-targeted HIV screening resulted in a higher testing rate than targeted testing due to more patients being offered a test. The acceptance rate of testing offered did not differ between targeted and non-targeted arms. Electronic tablets were well-received by patients and easy to use. We conclude that non-targeted HIV screening using electronic tablets would increase the HIV testing rate in our ED. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To elucidate new risk factors for MRSA carriers without known risk factors (MRSA of unknown origin; MUO). These MUO carriers are neither pre-emptively screened nor isolated as normally dictated by the Dutch Search & Destroy policy, thus resulting in policy failure. Methods: We performed a prospective case control study to determine risk factors for MUO acquisition/carriage (Dutch Trial Register: NTR2041). Cases were MUO carriers reported by participating medical microbiological laboratories to the RIVM from September 1st 2011 until September 1st 2013. Controls were randomly selected from the community during this period. Results: Significant risk factors for MUO in logistic multivariate analysis were antibiotic use in the last twelve months, aOR 8.1 (5.6–11.7), screened as contact in a contact tracing but not detected as a MRSA carrier at that time, aOR 4.3 (2.1–8.8), having at least one foreign parent, aOR 2.4 (1.4–3.9) and receiving ambulatory care, aOR 2.3 (1.4–3.7). Our found risk factors explained 83% of the MUO carriage. Conclusions: Identifying new risk factors for MRSA carriers remains crucial for countries that apply a targeted screening approach as a Search and Destroy policy or as vertical infection prevention measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined whether specific input data and assumptions explain outcome differences in otherwise comparable health impact assessment models. Seven population health models estimating the impact of salt reduction on morbidity and mortality in western populations were compared on four sets of key features, their underlying assumptions and input data. Next, assumptions and input data were varied one by one in a default approach (the DYNAMO-HIA model) to examine how it influences the estimated health impact. Major differences in outcome were related to the size and shape of the dose-response relation between salt and blood pressure and blood pressure and disease. Modifying the effect sizes in the salt to health association resulted in the largest change in health impact estimates (33% lower), whereas other changes had less influence. Differences in health impact assessment model structure and input data may affect the health impact estimate. Therefore, clearly defined assumptions and transparent reporting for different models is crucial. However, the estimated impact of salt reduction was substantial in all of the models used, emphasizing the need for public health actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well recognised that obesity increases the risk of premature death. A Body Shape Index (ABSI) is a formula that uses waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI) and height to predict risk of premature mortality, where a high score (Quartile 4) indicates that a person’s WC is more than expected given their height and weight. Our study examines the association between ABSI quartiles and all-cause-, cardiovascular- and cancer-related mortality, and primary cause of death. Self-reported demographic and biomedically measured health-related risk factor and weight data was from the baseline stage of the North West Adelaide Health Study (1999–2003, n = 4056), a longitudinal cohort of Australian adults. Death-related information was obtained from the National Death Index. Primary cause of death across ABSI quartiles was examined. The association between mortality and ABSI (quartile and continuous scores) was investigated using a Cox proportional hazards survival model and adjusting for socioeconomic, and self-reported and biomedical risk factors. The proportion of all three types of mortality steadily increased from ABSI Quartile 1 through to Quartile 4. After adjusting for demographic and health-related risk factors, the risk of all-cause mortality was higher for people in ABSI Quartile 4 (HR 2.64, 95% CI 01.56–4.47), and ABSI Quartile 3 (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.15–3.33), with a moderate association for the continuous ABSI score (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.18–1.48). ABSI is therefore positively associated with mortality in Australian adults. Different combined measures of obesity such as the ABSI are useful in examining mortality risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lymphatic filariasis is a chronic, disabling and often disfiguring condition that principally impacts the world’s poorest people. In addition to the well-recognised physical disability associated with lymphedema and hydrocele, affected people often experience rejection, stigma and discrimination. The resulting emotional consequences are known to impact on the quality of life and the functioning of the affected individuals. However, the management of this condition has focused on prevention and treatment through mass drug administration, with scant attention paid to the emotional impact of the condition on affected individuals. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and severity of depression among individuals with physical disfigurement from lymphatic filariasis in Plateau State, Nigeria. Methodology: A cross-sectional 2-stage convenience study was conducted at 5 designated treatment centers across Plateau State, Nigeria. All available and consenting clients with clearly visible physical disfigurement were recruited. A semi-structured socio-demographic questionnaire, Rosenberg Self-esteem and a 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) were administered at the first stage. Those who screened positive (with a PHQ-9 score of five and above) were further interviewed using the Depression module of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Results: Ninety-eight individuals met the criteria and provided consent. Twenty percent of the respondents met criteria for depression, with the following proportions based on severity: Mild (42.1%), Moderate (31.6%) and Severe (26.3%). History of mental illness (OR 40.83, p = 0.008); Median duration of the illness was 17 years (IQR 7.0–30 years) and being unemployed (OR 12.71, p = 0.003) were predictive of depression. High self-esteem was negatively correlated (OR 0.09, p<0.004). Conclusion: Prevalence of depression is high among individuals with lymphatic filariasis and depression in sufferers is associated with low self-esteem and low levels of life satisfaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Preeclampsia (PE) is associated with a high risk of perinatal morbidity and mortality. However, there is no consensus in the definition of high-risk women. Aim: To question current definition of high PE risk and propose a definition that considers individual heterogeneity to improves risk classification. Methods: A stratified analysis by parity was conducted using the Swedish Birth Register between 2002–2010 including 626.600 pregnancies. The discriminatory accuracy (DA) of traditional definitions of high-risk women was compared with a new definition based on 1) specific combinations of individual variables and 2) a centile cut-off of the probability of PE predicted by a multiple logistic regression model. Results: None of the classical risk-factors alone reached an acceptable DA. In multiparous, any combination of a risk-factor with previous PE or HBP reached a +LR>10. The combination of obesity and multiple pregnancy reached a good DA particularly in the presence of previous preeclampsia (positive likelihood ratio (LR+) = 26.5 or chronic hypertension (HBP) LR+ = 40.5. In primiparous, a LR+>15 was observed in multiple pregnancies with the simultaneous presence of obesity and diabetes mellitus or with HBP. Predicted probabilities above 97 centile in multiparous and 99 centile in primiparous provided high (LR+ = 12.5), and moderate (LR+ = 5.85), respectively. No one risk factor alone or in combination provided a LR- sufficiently low to rule-out the disease. Conclusions: In preeclampsia prediction the combination of specific risk factors provided a better discriminatory accuracy than traditional single risk approach. Our results contribute to a more personalized risk estimation of preeclampsia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Family is considered an important agent in the health development of children. This process is significant but quite complex because the prevalence of potential risk factors in the family can hinder children’s health. This study examined if multiple family risks might have cumulative effect on children and youth’s health across various levels of household income. The data in this study were drawn from the 2011–2012 U.S. National Survey of Children’s Health (N = 79,601). A cumulative family risk (CFR) index was developed, which included such constructs as single-parenthood, unstable employment, large family, parenting stress, poor maternal education, poor maternal general health and poor maternal mental health. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed that CFR level was significantly related to children and youth’s poor health outcome (p < .001). When poverty levels were considered, however, the impact of CFRs on children and youth’s health was attenuated. The impact of CFRs was higher on children and youth from affluent families than on those from poor families. Overall there was a consistent pattern of trend in the point estimate as well as confidence limits as levels of affluence and numbers of family risk increased although some of the confidence intervals overlapped. Living in disadvantaged families might serve as a protective factor against CFRs possibly through repeated exposure to hardships and subsequent formation of resilience among some of the disadvantaged children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: The vascular risk attributable to HIV infection is rising. The heterogeneity of the samples studied is an obstacle to understanding whether HIV is a vascular risk across geographic regions. Objective: To test the hypothesis that HIV infection is a vascular risk factor, and that the risk conferred by HIV varies by geographical region. Data sources: A systematic search of publications was carried out in seven electronic databases: PubMed, The Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Web of Science, LILACS, ClinicalTrials.gov, and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform from inception to July 2015. Study selection: We included longitudinal studies of HIV+ individuals and their risk of vascular outcomes of ≥ 50 HIV+ cases and excluded studies on biomarkers of vascular disease as well as clinical trials. Data extraction and synthesis: Data was extracted by one of the authors and independently confirmed by the other two authors. We used incidence rate (IR), incidence risk ratio (IRR) and hazard ratio (HR) with their 95% confidence intervals as measures of risk. Main outcome: All-death, myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD), any stroke, ischemic stroke (IS) or intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). Results: We screened 11,482 references for eligibility, and selected 117 for analysis. Forty-four cohorts represented 334,417 HIV+ individuals, 49% from the United States. Compared with their European counterparts, HIV+ individuals in the United States had higher IR of death (IRR 1.78, 1.69–1.88), MI (IRR 1.61, 1.29–2.01), CHD (IRR 2.27, 1.92–2.68), any stroke (IRR 1.94, 1.59–2.38), IS (IRR 1.56, 1.23–1.98), and ICH (IRR 4.03, 2.72–6.14). Compared with HIV- controls and independent of geographical region, HIV was a risk for death (HR 4.77, 4.55–5.00), MI (HR 1.60, 1.49–1.72), any CHD (HR 1.20, 1.15–1.25), any stroke (HR 1.82, 1.53–2.16), IS (HR 1.27, 1.15–1.39) and ICH (HR 2.20, 1.61–3.02). Use of antiretroviral therapy was a consistent risk for cardiac outcomes, while immunosuppression and unsuppressed viral load were consistent risks for cerebral outcomes. Conclusions: HIV should be considered a vascular risk, with varying magnitudes across geographical and anatomical regions. We think that strategies to reduce the HIV-related vascular burden are urgent, and should incorporate the disparities noted here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stroke, like many long-term conditions, tends to be managed in isolation of its associated risk factors and multimorbidity. With increasing access to clinical and research data there is the potential to combine data from a variety of sources to inform interventions to improve healthcare. A ‘Learning Health System’ (LHS) is an innovative model of care which transforms integrated data into knowledge to improve healthcare. The objective of this study is to develop a process of engaging stakeholders in the use of clinical and research data to co-produce potential solutions, informed by a LHS, to improve long-term care for stroke survivors with multimorbidity. Methods: We used a stakeholder engagement study design informed by co-production principles to engage stakeholders, including service users, carers, general practitioners and other health and social care professionals, service managers, commissioners of services, policy makers, third sector representatives and researchers. Over a 10 month period we used a range of methods including stakeholder group meetings, focus groups, nominal group techniques (priority setting and consensus building) and interviews. Qualitative data were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. Results: 37 participants took part in the study. The concept of how data might drive intervention development was difficult to convey and understand. The engagement process led to four priority areas for needs for data and information being identified by stakeholders: 1) improving continuity of care; 2) improving management of mental health consequences; 3) better access to health and social care; and 4) targeting multiple risk factors. These priorities informed preliminary design interventions. The final choice of intervention was agreed by consensus, informed by consideration of the gap in evidence and local service provision, and availability of robust data. This shaped a co-produced decision support tool to improve secondary prevention after stroke for further development. Conclusions: Stakeholder engagement to identify data-driven solutions is feasible but requires resources. While a number of potential interventions were identified, the final choice rested not just on stakeholder priorities but also on data availability. Further work is required to evaluate the impact and implementation of data-driven interventions for long-term stroke survivors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Vascular disease remains a leading cause of death. There are several vascular risk factors identified that can mitigate development of disease in ageing. We examine reported rates of modifiable risk factors in women responding to an online health questionnaire advertised by popular media. Methods: A sample of 26 620 women aged over 18 was examined in 2015 with a cross-sectional health questionnaire. The questionnaire included self-reported health, mood, lifestyle and vascular risk factors. Results: There remains high rates of modifiable risk factors present in women. The vast majority of women (80%) reported not eating enough fruit and vegetables. Compared to the guidelines for health, the majority did not perform enough weekly physical activity (70%) and more than half the participants were overweight (54%). Sufficient fruit, vegetables, fish, legumes and physical activity were reported in less than 30% of women! Conclusions: Women continue to report low rates of physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake and higher BMI than recommended for good health, despite worldwide health promotion activities aimed at changing these lifestyle factors. Programs to support healthy living need to be reviewed and revised to reduce the burden of vascular disease and dementia in women. Previous guidelines are not having the important impact they should, particularly in women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In-hospital mortality of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) admitted during off-hour was reported higher than those admitted during regular hour, but which factors cause the difference remains largely unknown though the difference in medical resources was often accused. Methods and results: This registry-based study recruited 7456 STEMI patients prospectively from 99 level two hospitals across China. Generalized linear mixed models were applied to quantify the risk of in-hospital death attributed to admission time and the explainers of its change, accounting for the clustering of patients within hospitals. There were 45.2% patients admitted during regular hour and 54.8% during off-hour. In-hospital mortality was 7.0% for patients admitted during regular hour and 8.3% for those during off-hour (p<0.05). Generalized linear mixed models adjusting for age, gender and education showed that patients’ disease severity at admission and medical treatments received after admission could explain the risk difference attributed to admission time by 55% and 20%, respectively. After all factors accounted, the residual relative risk difference left only 6% (adjusted OR = 0.94) and became no longer significant. Conclusions: The regular-and-off-hour mortality difference exists among STEMI patients in Chinese level two hospitals, which could be attributed primarily to disease severity at admission and secondly to the poorer medical treatments. These results call for public attention to the more severity of STEMI patients admitted during off-hour in addition to improving medical resources for STEMI at off-hour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Easily identifiable risk factors including: obesity and ethnicity at high risk of diabetes are commonly used to indicate which women should be offered the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) to diagnose gestational diabetes (GDM). Evidence regarding these risk factors is limited however. We conducted a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis and individual participant data (IPD) analysis to evaluate the performance of risk factors in identifying women with GDM. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, Medline in Process, Embase, Maternity and Infant Care and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) up to August 2016 and conducted additional reference checking. We included observational, cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies reporting the performance characteristics of risk factors used to identify women at high risk of GDM. We had access to IPD from the Born in Bradford and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy cohorts, all pregnant women in the two cohorts with data on risk factors and OGTT results were included. Results: Twenty nine published studies with 211,698 women for the SR and a further 14,103 women from two birth cohorts (Born in Bradford and the Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy study) for the IPD analysis were included. Six studies assessed the screening performance of guidelines; six examined combinations of risk factors; eight evaluated the number of risk factors and nine examined prediction models or scores. Meta-analysis using data from published studies suggests that irrespective of the method used, risk factors do not identify women with GDM well. Using IPD and combining risk factors to produce the highest sensitivities, results in low specificities (and so higher false positives). Strategies that use the risk factors of age (>25 or >30) and BMI (>25 or 30) perform as well as other strategies with additional risk factors included. Conclusions: Risk factor screening methods are poor predictors of which pregnant women will be diagnosed with GDM. A simple approach of offering an OGTT to women 25 years or older and/or with a BMI of 25kg/m2 or more is as good as more complex risk prediction models. Research to identify more accurate (bio)markers is needed. Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO CRD42013004608 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is a heterogeneous tumor with various histological and molecular subtypes. EHD2 is involved in endocytosis and endosomal recycling. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of EHD2 expression in PTC and develop a new model for predicting persistent/recurrent disease after thyroidectomy. Pathologic slides of 512 consecutive patients with PTC ≥ 1 cm were retrospectively reviewed. BRAF mutation analysis and immunohistochemistry for EHD2 were performed. Clinical significance of EHD2 mRNA expression was analyzed in 388 PTC patients using The Cancer Genome Atlas dataset. The presence of dyscohesive cells and psammoma bodies were found have significant association with persistent/recurrent disease (p = 0.049 and p = 0.038, respectively). The best discrimination of disease-free survival was found by dividing patients into three prognostic groups based on the following two risk factors according to the size category: psammoma bodies ≥ 4 and dyscohesive cells (≥ 1% and ≥ 20% in PTCs of < 2.0 cm and ≥ 2.0 cm, respectively). In PTCs of ≥ 2.0 cm, patients with the two risk factors had a hazard ratio of 13.303 (p = 0.005) compared to those without risk factors. High expression level of EHD2 was associated with BRAF V600E (p < 0.001), presence of dyscohesive cells (p = 0.010), and absence of psammoma bodies (p = 0.001). Increased EHD2 mRNA expression level was associated with extrathyroidal extension (p < 0.001), pT3-4 (p < 0.001), lymph node metastasis (p < 0.001), higher risk of recurrence (p < 0.001), and BRAF V600E (p < 0.001). Our prognostic model is useful for predicting persistent/recurrent disease after surgery of PTC. EHD2 mRNA expression could be a novel prognostic marker for PTC patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators designed for use in the general population do not accurately predict the risk of CVD among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), who are at increased risk of CVD. The process of developing risk prediction models involves numerous issues. Our goal was to develop a CVD risk calculator for patients with RA. Methods: Thirteen cohorts of patients with RA originating from 10 different countries (UK, Norway, Netherlands, USA, Sweden, Greece, South Africa, Spain, Canada and Mexico) were combined. CVD risk factors and RA characteristics at baseline, in addition to information on CVD outcomes were collected. Cox models were used to develop a CVD risk calculator, considering traditional CVD risk factors and RA characteristics. Model performance was assessed using measures of discrimination and calibration with 10-fold cross-validation. Results: A total of 5638 RA patients without prior CVD were included (mean age: 55 [SD: 14] years, 76% female). During a mean follow-up of 5.8 years (30139 person years), 389 patients developed a CVD event. Event rates varied between cohorts, necessitating inclusion of high and low risk strata in the models. The multivariable analyses revealed 2 risk prediction models including either a disease activity score including a 28 joint count and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28ESR) or a health assessment questionnaire (HAQ) along with age, sex, presence of hypertension, current smoking and ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Unfortunately, performance of these models was similar to general population CVD risk calculators. Conclusion: Efforts to develop a specific CVD risk calculator for patients with RA yielded 2 potential models including RA disease characteristics, but neither demonstrated improved performance compared to risk calculators designed for use in the general population. Challenges encountered and lessons learned are discussed in detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the replication validity of biomedical association studies covered by newspapers. Methods: We used a database of 4723 primary studies included in 306 meta-analysis articles. These studies associated a risk factor with a disease in three biomedical domains, psychiatry, neurology and four somatic diseases. They were classified into a lifestyle category (e.g. smoking) and a non-lifestyle category (e.g. genetic risk). Using the database Dow Jones Factiva, we investigated the newspaper coverage of each study. Their replication validity was assessed using a comparison with their corresponding meta-analyses. Results: Among the 5029 articles of our database, 156 primary studies (of which 63 were lifestyle studies) and 5 meta-analysis articles were reported in 1561 newspaper articles. The percentage of covered studies and the number of newspaper articles per study strongly increased with the impact factor of the journal that published each scientific study. Newspapers almost equally covered initial (5/39 12.8%) and subsequent (58/600 9.7%) lifestyle studies. In contrast, initial non-lifestyle studies were covered more often (48/366 13.1%) than subsequent ones (45/3718 1.2%). Newspapers never covered initial studies reporting null findings and rarely reported subsequent null observations. Only 48.7% of the 156 studies reported by newspapers were confirmed by the corresponding meta-analyses. Initial non-lifestyle studies were less often confirmed (16/48) than subsequent ones (29/45) and than lifestyle studies (31/63). Psychiatric studies covered by newspapers were less often confirmed (10/38) than the neurological (26/41) or somatic (40/77) ones. This is correlated to an even larger coverage of initial studies in psychiatry. Whereas 234 newspaper articles covered the 35 initial studies that were later disconfirmed, only four press articles covered a subsequent null finding and mentioned the refutation of an initial claim. Conclusion: Journalists preferentially cover initial findings although they are often contradicted by meta-analyses and rarely inform the public when they are disconfirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Epidemics of chronic kidney disease (CKD) not due to diabetes mellitus (DM) or hypertension have been observed among individuals working in hot environments in several areas of the world. Experimental models have documented that recurrent heat stress and water restriction can lead to CKD, and the mechanism may be mediated by hyperosmolarity that activates pathways (vasopressin, aldose reductase-fructokinase) that induce renal injury. Here we tested the hypothesis that elevated serum sodium, which reflects serum osmolality, may be an independent risk factor for the development of CKD. Methods: This study was a large-scale, single-center, retrospective 5-year cohort study at Center for Preventive Medicine, St. Luke’s International Hospital, Tokyo, Japan, between 2004 and 2009. We analyzed 13,201 subjects who underwent annual medical examination of which 12,041 subjects (age 35 to 85) without DM and/or CKD were enrolled. This analysis evaluated age, sex, body mass index, abdominal circumference, hypertension, dyslipidemia, hyperuricemia, fasting glucose, BUN, serum sodium, potassium, chloride and calculated serum osmolarity. Results: Elevated serum sodium was an independent risk factor for development of CKD (OR: 1.03, 95% CI, 1.00–1.07) after adjusted regression analysis with an 18 percent increased risk for every 5 mmol/L change in serum sodium. Calculated serum osmolarity was also an independent risk factor for CKD (OR: 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03–1.05) as was BUN (OR: 1.08; 95% CI, 1.06–1.10) (independent of serum creatinine). Conclusions: Elevated serum sodium and calculated serum osmolarity are independent risk factors for developing CKD. This finding supports the role of limiting salt intake and preventing dehydration to reduce risk of CKD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]