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International audience; We compare disagreement in expectations and the frequency of forecast revisions among five categories of agents: households, firms, professional forecasters, policymakers and participants to laboratory experiments. We provide evidence of disagreement among all categories of agents. There is however a strong heterogeneity across categories: while policymakers and professional forecasters exhibit low disagreement, firms and households show strong disagreement. This translates into a heterogeneous frequency of forecast revision across categories of agents, with policymakers revising more frequently their forecasts than firms and professional forecasters. Households last revise less frequently. We are also able to explore the external validity of experimental expectations.

Retirement system sustainability is defined as the ability of plan boards and managers to be responsible investors, active stewards, and allocators of capital to economic activities with desirable social and environmental outcomes. In this paper, we examine the policy frameworks and important structural variables pertinent to private retirement systems in Australia, the UK, and the US. By analyzing various reports, interviewing experts, and using data from the Principles of Responsible Investment as well as national pension and retirement authorities, we identify key structural challenges within national retirement systems. These include market fragmentation, principal-agent conflicts in personal pensions, and the role of service providers. Our results provide insight into how, or whether, retirement systems can facilitate desirable economic, social, and environmental outcomes.

This book is, without a doubt, a major contribution in the field of Judeo-Persian Studies. Judeo-Persian literature, which extends for about eight centuries, has been severely neglected except for the work of a small number of scholars. There are only four scholars in the United States who have dealt with any aspect of this field, and not many more elsewhere. The existing Judeo-Persian texts are a vast collection of all sorts of material and deserve much more attention. Vera Basch Moreen has made a great step forward by providing translation of a wide variety of literary texts. Especially valuable are her commentaries, explanations, and bibliography.

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This paper presents the correspondences in verbal morphologies to support the existing lexical and other morphological evidence (reported elsewhere) that the Dravidian language family is closely cognate with Elamite. It uses primarily Achaemenid Elamite, for which the most detail is available, and in particular the description of the verb given by R. T. Hallock. A great deal of use is made of Dravidian Ver Morphology by P. S. Subrahmanyam. For one of the two basic tenses in both Dravidian and Elamite, the nonpast, it is shown that there is an item-for-item correspondence in the verbal morphologies for all surviving forms. This is obvious only after a reinterpretation of Proto-Dravidian verbal morphology. For the other basic tense, it is shown that significant correspondences exist in spite of major changes. Also, parallel shifts in verb classes for an intransitive/transitive contrast are shown to be cognate. Other verbal forms, including the auxiliaries, are discussed.

THE STILL USEFUL COLLECTION of historical linguistic material to be found in Paul Horn, Grundriss der neupersischen Etymologie (Strassburg, 1893-photo-reprint 1966) contains numerous references to Judeo-Persian forms as culled from the very few J-P texts available at the end of the 19th century. These were primarily the J-P versions of the prophetic books of Isaiah, Jeremiah, and Ezekiel (through Ez 9.4 only) published by Paul de Lagarde in his Persische Studien, pp. 3-140 (in the right part of the volume) [Gottingen, 1884]. These texts were based on manuscripts in the Bibliotheque Nationale. The other major source for Horn-also from a manuscript in Paris (Bibl. Nat. 128)-was II. Zotenberg, "Geschichte Daniels: Ein Apokryph," Archiv fur wissensch. Erforschung des Alten Testaments 1.385-427 (1869). Horn's practice in citing J-P forms wherever possible was commendable, and was worthy of emulation in later decades. However, aside from the scattered efforts of a very few scholars at the turn of the century-most notably Wilhelm Bacher-the large numbers of J-P manuscripts and books available in many collections have remained unstudied and unknown. This note seeks to demonstrate once again what an important source for the history of the Persian language the J-P texts represent, by focussing on a single set of forms-the short copulas ham first person singular, him first person plusal, hid second person plural, and hand third person plural. The third person singular hast that is current in Islamic Persian is the sole survivor of what was clearly a full paradigm in an earlier stage of the language. (No examples of the second person singular hi (hy) were found; and it was not considered necessary to cite any of the frequently occurring hast forms from J-P.) In section 107 (page 25) of his etymological dictionary, Horn discusses these forms and cites the J-P shapes here transliterated as hm, hym, hyd, hnd (they appear in Hebrew type-but with two misprints: samex for mem in the first two forms). We now give a tabulation of the occurrence of these copulas from three texts

WAS THE OP SYLLABARY an ad hoc invention under the Achaemenids or is it the much eroded survivor of an older and more complete writing system? * This problem has been repeatedly discussed chiefly by reference to the evidence from the Greek sources, from Aramaeo-Pehlevi scribal practice, and from the more direct-though not completely clear-evidence in paragraph 70 of the Bisitun inscription.' The argument offered in this paper is submitted in order to show that internal linguistic evidence available from the OP language itself has not been completely exhausted. An examination of the relevant handbooks re

https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202916; We show that banker bonuses cannot be understood exclusively as incentive contracts, but also incorporate a significant risk sharing dimension between bank shareholders and bank employees. This contrasts with the conventional view whereby diversified shareholders fully insure risk averse employees. However, financial frictions imply that shareholder value is concave in a bank's cash reserves---making shareholders effectively risk averse. The optimal contract between shareholders and employees then involves some degree of risk sharing. Using extensive payroll data on 1.26 million bank employee years in the Austrian, German, and Swiss banking sectors, we show that the structure of bonus pay within and across banks is compatible with an economically significant risk sharing motive, but difficult to rationalize based on incentive theories of bonus pay only.

We study the incentives of a digital business to collect and protect users’ data. The users’ data the business collects improve the service it provides to consumers, but they may also be accessed, at a cost, by strategic third parties in a way that harms users, imposing endogenous users’ privacy costs. We characterize how the revenue model of the business shapes its optimal data strategy: collection and protection of users’ data. A business with a more data-driven revenue model will collect more users’ data and provide more data protection than a similar business that is more usage driven. Consequently, if users have small direct benefit from data collection, then more usage-driven businesses generate larger consumer surplus than their more data-driven counterparts (the reverse holds if users have large direct benefit from data collection). Relative to the socially desired data strategy, the business may over- or undercollect users’ data and may over- or underprotect it. Restoring efficiency requires a two-pronged regulatory policy, covering both data collection and data protection; one such policy combines a minimal data protection requirement with a tax proportional to the amount of collected data. We finally show that existing regulation in the United States, which focuses only on data protection, may even harm consumer surplus and overall welfare. This paper was accepted by Itai Ashlagi, revenue management and market analytics.

Stochastic independence has a complex status in probability theory. It is not part of the definition of a probability measure, but it is nonetheless an essential property for the mathematical development of this theory. Bayesian decision theorists such as Savage can be criticized for being silent about stochastic independence. From their current preference axioms, they can derive no more than the definitional properties of a probability measure. In a new framework of twofold uncertainty, we introduce preference axioms that entail not only these definitional properties, but also the stochastic independence of the two sources of uncertainty. This goes some way towards filling a curious lacuna in Bayesian decision theory., Comment: In Proceedings TARK 2017, arXiv:1707.08250

Despite the increasing importance of multiple priors in various domains of economics and the significant theoretical advances concerning them, choice-based incentive-compatible multiple-prior elicitation largely remains an open problem. This paper develops a solution, comprising a preference-based identification of a subject’s probability interval for an event, and two procedures for eliciting it. The method does not rely on specific assumptions about subjects’ ambiguity attitudes or probabilistic sophistication. To demonstrate its feasibility, we implement it in two incentivized experiments to elicit the multiple-prior equivalent of subjects’ cumulative distribution functions over continuous-valued sources of uncertainty. We find a predominance of non-degenerate probability intervals among subjects for all explored sources, with intervals being wider for less familiar sources. Finally, we use our method to undertake the first elicitation of the mixture coefficient in the Hurwicz α-maxmin EU model that fully controls for beliefs.

In credit markets, screening algorithms discriminate between good-type and bad-type borrowers. This is their raison d’être. However, by doing so, they also often discriminate between individuals sharing a protected attribute (e.g. gender, age, race) and the rest of the population. In this paper, we show how to test (1) whether there exists a statistical significant difference in terms of rejection rates or interest rates, called lack of fairness, between protected and unprotected groups and (2) whether this difference is only due to credit worthiness. When condition (2) is not met, the screening algorithm does not comply with the fair-lending principle and can be qualified as illegal. Our framework provides guidance on how algorithmic fairness can be monitored by lenders, controlled by their regulators, and improved for the benefit of protected groups.

Real and private-value assets—defined here as the sum of real estate, infrastructure, collectibles, and noncorporate business equity—compose an investment class worth an estimated $84 trillion in the U.S. alone. Furthermore, private values can affect pricing in many other financial markets, such as that for sustainable investments. This paper introduces the research on real assets and private values that can be found in this special issue. It also reviews recent advances and highlights new research directions on a number of topics in the real assets space that we believe to be particularly important and exciting.

This paper studies how audience members categorize and evaluate ambiguous offerings. Depending on whether audience members categorize ambiguous offerings based on prototypes or goals, they activate two distinct cognitive mechanisms and evaluate differently ambiguous offerings. We expect that when audiences engage in goal- versus prototype-based categorization, their evaluation of ambiguous products increases. We theorize that, under goal-based categorization, the perceived utility of unclear attributes increases for audiences, which leads them to evaluate more positively ambiguous product offerings. We test and find support for these direct and mediated relationships through a series of laboratory, online, and field experiments. Overall, this study offers important implications for research on product and market categories, optimal distinctiveness, and market agents’ cognitive ascription of value.

International audience; This article analyses the political significance of the protests that have arisen in Tunisia since the ʻrevolution’ and the establishment of a parliamentary regime. This is what the protests studied have in common: they belong to neglected regions in the country’s hinterland; that they mobilise young local populations; they claim rights over their territories’ soil and subsoil resources exploitation; they occupy a strategic location for a relatively long period of time; and they set up democratic mechanisms for these locations’ self-management, in the form of ‘coordinations’. The description of social logics and the way populations resist, as well as the authoritarian rationality of government action and the inability of elected officials to mediate conflicts, reveal differences between protesters who seek autonomy from state control, while others refer to a rent-centred understanding of the claim. It also shows the emergence of a ‘protest democracy’, itself an expression of a crisis of ‘governmentality’. These two phenomena are symptomatic of a demand for integrating populations and new ways of governing that break with the reeks of past authoritarianism and current representative democracy.

This paper develops a method to flexibly adapt interpolation grids of value function approximations in the estimation of dynamic models using either NFXP (Rust, Econometrica: Journal of the Econom etric Society, 55, 999– 1 033, 1987) or MPEC (Su & Judd, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 80, 2213–2230, 2012). Since MPEC requires the grid structure for the value function approximation to be hard-coded into the constraints, one cannot apply iterative node insertion for grid refinement; for NFXP, grid adaption by (iteratively) inserting new grid nodes will generally lead to discontinuous likelihood functions. Therefore, we show how to continuously adapt the grid by moving the nodes, a technique referred to as r-adaption. We demonstrate how to obtain optimal grids based on the balanced error principle, and implement this approach by including additional constraints to the likelihood maximization problem. The method is applied to two models: (i) the bus engine replacement model (Rust, 1987), modified to feature a continuous mileage state, and (ii) to a dynamic model of content consumption using original data from one of the world’s leading user-generated content networks in the domain of music.

Reproducibility is key for building trust in research, yet it is not widespread in economics. We show how external certification can improve reproducibility in economics research. Such certification can be conducted by a trusted third party or agency, which formally tests whether a given result is indeed generated by the code and data used by a researcher. This additional validation step significantly enriches the peer-review process, without adding an extra burden on journals or unduly lengthening the publication process. We show that external certification can accommodate research based on confidential data. Lastly, we present an actual example of external certification.

We document that since 1997, the rate of startup formation has precipitously declined for firms operated by U.S. PhD recipients in science and engineering. These are supposedly the source of some of our best new technological and business opportunities. We link this to an increasing burden of knowledge by documenting a long-term earnings decline by founders, especially less experienced founders, greater work complexity in R&D, and more administrative work. The results suggest that established firms are better positioned to cope with the increasing burden of knowledge, in particular through the design of knowledge hierarchies, explaining why new firm entry has declined for high-tech, high-opportunity startups.

In the face of rising income inequality (Acemoglu & Autor, 2011; Atkinson, Piketty, & Saez, 2011; Piketty, 2014; World Economic Forum, 2014), one recent proposal is to provide consumers with information about the income inequality across those involved in the production of each good, at the point of purchase. This has been shown to depress overall inequality (Hill, 2020), though its impact depends crucially on whether people are willing to pay more for goods whose production involves less income inequality. Here we investigate this largely unexplored empirical question through an incentivised, behavioural choice experiment on a representative sample of the English population. We find that a large majority are willing to pay significantly more for goods associated with less inequality. How much more people are willing to pay varies with political leaning and increases with the extent of the inequality reduction, but is positive across the political spectrum and for all studied inequality differences. Moreover, it is typically higher when inequality is reported in more intuitive and informa- tive formats. Our results bode well for the effectiveness of product-level inequality information provision as a tool for moderating income inequality, promising impacts even in markets where all goods involve relatively high inequality levels and potential participation across the political spectrum.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in its periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.

This study, commissioned by the European Parliament’s Policy Department for Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs and requested by the European Parliament’s Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs, assesses the impact of disinformation and strategic political propaganda disseminated through online social media sites. It examines effects on the functioning of the rule of law, democracy and fundamental rights in the EU and its Member States.The study formulates recommendations on how to tackle this threat to human rights, democracy and the rule of law. It specifically addresses the role of social media platform providers in this regard.

We use French matched employer-employee data to track skilled individuals entering the labor market during the late 1990s tech bubble. The boom led to a sharp increase in the share of skilled entrants in the tech sector, which offers relative higher wages at the time. When the boom ends, however, the wage premium reverses and these skilled workers end up with a 5.5% wage discount ten years out, relative to similar peers who started in a non-tech sector. Other moments of the wage distribution of the boom, pre-boom, and post-boom cohorts are inconsistent with explanations based on a selection effect or a cycle effect. Instead, we provide suggestive evidence that workers allocated to the booming tech sector accumulate human capital early in their career that rapidly becomes obsolete.