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Background: Up to 1.45 billion people currently suffer from soil transmitted helminth infection, with the largest burden occurring in Africa and Asia. Safe and cost effective deworming treatment exists, but there is a debate about mass distribution of this treatment in high prevalence settings. While the World Health Organization recommends mass administration of anthelmintic drugs for preschool and school-aged children in high (>20%) prevalence settings, and several long run follow up studies of an influential trial have suggested large benefits that persist over time, recent systematic reviews have called this recommendation into question. Methods and findings: This paper analyzes the long-term impact of a cluster-randomized trial in eastern Uganda that provided mass deworming treatment to preschool aged children from 2000 to 2003 on the numeracy and literacy skills of children and young adults living in those villages in 2010-2015. This study uses numeracy and literacy data collected seven to twelve years after the end of the deworming trial in a randomly selected subset of communities from the original trial, by an education-focused survey that had no relationship to the deworming study. Building on an earlier working paper which used data from 2010 and 2011 survey rounds, this paper uses an additional four years of numeracy and literacy data (2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015). Aggregating data from all survey rounds, the difference between numeracy scores in treatment versus control communities is 0.07 standard deviations (SD) (95% CI -0.10, 0.24, p = 0.40), the difference in literacy scores is 0.05 SD (95% CI -0.16, 0.27, p = 0.62), and the difference in total scores is 0.07 SD (95% CI -0.11, 0.25, p = 0.44). There are significant differences in program impact by gender, with numeracy and literacy differentially positively affected for girls, and by age, with treatment effects larger for the primary school aged subsample. There are also significant treatment interactions for those living in households with more treatment-eligible children. There is no evidence of differential treatment effects on age at program eligibility or number of years of program eligibility. Conclusions: Mass deworming of preschool aged children in high prevalence communities in Uganda resulted in no statistically significant gains in numeracy or literacy 7-12 years after program completion. Point estimates were positive but imprecise; the study lacked sufficient power to rule out substantial positive effects or more modest negative effects. However, there is suggestive evidence that deworming was relatively more beneficial for girls, primary school aged children, and children living in households with other treated children. Research approval: As this analysis was conducted on secondary data which is publicly available, no research approval was sought or received. All individual records were anonymized by the data provider prior to public release. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Targeted environmental and ecosystem management remain crucial in control of dengue. However, providing detailed environmental information on a large scale to effectively target dengue control efforts remains a challenge. An important piece of such information is the extent of the presence of potential dengue vector breeding sites, which consist primarily of open containers such as ceramic jars, buckets, old tires, and flowerpots. In this paper we present the design and implementation of a pipeline to detect outdoor open containers which constitute potential dengue vector breeding sites from geotagged images and to create highly detailed container density maps at unprecedented scale. We implement the approach using Google Street View images which have the advantage of broad coverage and of often being two to three years old which allows correlation analyses of container counts against historical data from manual surveys. Containers comprising eight of the most common breeding sites are detected in the images using convolutional neural network transfer learning. Over a test set of images the object recognition algorithm has an accuracy of 0.91 in terms of F-score. Container density counts are generated and displayed on a decision support dashboard. Analyses of the approach are carried out over three provinces in Thailand. The container counts obtained agree well with container counts from available manual surveys. Multi-variate linear regression relating densities of the eight container types to larval survey data shows good prediction of larval index values with an R-squared of 0.674. To delineate conditions under which the container density counts are indicative of larval counts, a number of factors affecting correlation with larval survey data are analyzed. We conclude that creation of container density maps from geotagged images is a promising approach to providing detailed risk maps at large scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gender diversity is known to have a positive effect on innovation in developed countries. However, it is unclear whether the benefits of gender diversity for innovation also apply to the particular context of developing countries, which is characterized by diverse and lower levels of gender equality. We propose that gender diversity positively impacts innovation in the developing countries participating in our study. In addition, we expect that this effect is moderated by country-specific levels of gender equality. In a cross-country study covering 18,547 firms in 15 developing countries, we find that gender diversity among a firm’s owners and workforce as well as having a female top manager benefit innovation in developing countries. Yet, contradictory to our expectations, gender equality does not significantly moderate this relationship. As such, our results underline the importance of enabling and fostering gender diversity and have critical implications for firms and policy makers alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration studies emphasize the role of economic, social and cultural capital in shaping out-migration decisions. Yet, little attention is paid to the effect of capital endowment on return migration, particularly among the highly educated. This article examines the extent to which different forms of capital determine return decisions of early-career researchers (ECRs). We hypothesized that individuals from more privileged backgrounds would repatriate at higher rates, due to the benefits that their capital stock might offer them upon homeland re-integration at home. Drawing on a sample of 223 early career Israeli scholars in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) disciplines, we used logistic regressions to analyze the effects of material wealth, social ties, and family-oriented cultural capital on their return propensities. No significant differences were found between repatriating and non-repatriating scholars with respect to cultural capital. However, accumulating social and economic capital was positively correlated with the decision to repatriate as was marrying into academic families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Physical education professionals aim to develop quality programmes for physical education. This study aimed to develop and validate a scale using professionals’ perceptions of Quality Physical Education QPE in Asia using twenty-four items regarding QPE quality issues. The items covered status and roles, development of educational elements and supportive features in physical education. A sample of N = 799 sport and physical education professionals from eleven Asian cities participated in this questionnaire survey. Twenty-four items relating to QPE were examined via exploratory factor analysis (EFA) using maximum likelihood extraction and direct oblimin rotation methods. Nevertheless, only 20 items were extracted following the EFA examination. Items 1, 9, 14 and 18 were excluded because of low factor loadings. The remaining items were clustered into four subscales: Development and Supportive Elements for Quality Physical Education in Schools (DSFQPE; α = .918), Core Values of Quality Physical Education (CVPE; α = .908), Curriculum Arrangement of Physical Activities (CAPA; α = .884) and Provision and Norms in Physical Education (PNPE; α = .865). The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (α = .875) indicated excellent internal consistency for the overall measure. Furthermore, the 4 retained factors from the EFA were assessed via robust confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The 4-factor model demonstrated a good fit with the data (CMIN/DF = 3.450, CFI = .928, TLI = .916, PCFI = .801, RMSEA = .078). The study identified a 4-factor structure with internal consistency and acceptable interfactor correlations. The structure seemed to be applicable, including the twenty items identified as useful and necessary tools for the framework of analysis in the investigation of diverse settings for the study of quality physical education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourist congestion at hot spots has been a major management concern for UNESCO World Heritage Sites and other iconic protected areas. A growing number of heritage sites employ technologies, such as cameras and electronic ticket-checking systems, to monitor user levels, but data collected by these monitoring technologies are often under-utilized. In this study, we illustrated how to integrate data from hot spots by camera-captured monitoring and entrance counts to manage use levels at a World Heritage Site in Southeastern China. 6,930 photos of a congestion hotspot (scenic outlook on a trail) were collected within the park at a 10-minute interval over 105 days from January to November 2017. The entrance counts were used to predict daily average and maximum use level at the hotspots. Results showed that the average use level at the congestion hotspot did not exceed the use limit mandated by the park administration agency. However, from 9:20 am to 12:00 pm, the use level at hotspots exceeded visitor preferred use level. Visitor use level was significantly higher at the hotspot during a major Chinese “Golden Week”. The daily entrance counts significantly predicted the average and maximum use level at the hotspot. Based on our findings, park managers can achieve the management goals by permitting the corresponding number of visitors passing the entrances. The gap manifested the complexities in visitor capacity management at high-use World Heritage Sites and other protected areas and calls for innovative monitoring and management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence of overweightness in Bangladesh is increasing, while underweightness also continues to persist. A better understanding of the patterns and socioeconomic risk factors of both conditions, particularly among women, is critical in order to promote the development of interventions to improve maternal health in Bangladesh. This study therefore sought to assess the patterns of under- and overweightness between 2004 and 2014 and to examine the predictors of individual and community-level inequalities of under- and overnutrition in Bangladesh. Methods: Cross-sectional data of 10, 431, and 16,478 ever-married nonpregnant women aged between 15 and 49 years who did not give birth in the two months preceding the survey were extracted from the 2004 and 2014 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys, respectively. Body mass index was used to measure weight status, and underweightness, at-risk for overweightness, overweightness, and obesity were the main outcome variables. Patterns of nutritional change over time was examined by considering the annual average rate of change. Multilevel multinomial logistic regression and quantile regression were used to identify the inequalities. Results: In 2014, the age-adjusted prevalence values of underweightness, at-risk for overweightness, overweightness, and obesity were 19.7%, 14.9%, 18.1% and 4.0%, respectively. A higher average annual rate of reduction of underweightness was found among wealthier, highly educated, and wealthier community–living women, while a rate of increase of overweightness was found among poorer, uneducated, and poor community–living women. Individual and community-level inequalities of malnutrition were observed among these populations. In comparison with women living in low wealth communities, women from wealthier communities were at an increased risk of being at-risk for overweightness [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.23–1.91], overweight (AOR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.27–2.00), and obese (AOR: 2.12, 95% CI: 1.42–3.18). Conclusions: This study suggests the coexistence of a double burden of under- and overnutrition in Bangladesh and that the prevalence of overweightness surpasses that of underweightness. The burdens of under- and overnutrition are strongly associated with women’s individual socioeconomic positions and the nature of the community in which they live. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a network-based method to obtain a subset of representative variables from clinical data of subjects of the second Singapore Longitudinal Aging Study (SLAS-2), while preserving to a good extent the predictive performance of the full set with regards to a multi-faceted index of successful aging, SAGE. To examine differences in predictive performance of high-degree nodes (“hubs”) and high-centrality ones (“cores”), we implement four subsetting strategies (two degree-based, two centrality-based) and obtain four surrogate sets of variables, which we use as input features for machine learning models to predict the SAGE index of subjects. All four models have variables belonging to the physical, cardiovascular, cognitive and immunological domains among their fifteen most important predictors. A fifth domain (leisure-time activities, LTA) is also present in some form. From a comparison of the surrogate sets’ size and predictive performance, a centrality-based approach (selection of the most central variable-nodes within each cluster) yielded the smallest-sized surrogate set, while having high prediction accuracy (measured by its model’s area-under-curve, AUC) in comparison to its analogous degree-based strategy (selection of the highest-degree nodes per cluster). Inclusion of the next most-central variables yielded negligible changes in predictive performance while more than doubling the surrogate set size. The centrality-based approach thus yields a surrogate set which offers a good balance between number of variables and prediction performance, and can act as a representative subset of the SLAS-2 clinical dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections remain highly endemic across the Philippines, and are believed to be important contributors to delayed cognitive development of school-aged children. Identification of communities where children are at risk of functional illiteracy is important for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals target for literacy. We aimed to quantify the associations between the spatial variation of STH infections and functional literacy indicators adjusting for other important contributors, and identify priority areas in the Philippines in need of interventions. Methodology/Principal findings: We used data from 11,313 school-aged children on functional literacy indicators collected in 2008. Nested fixed-effects multinomial regression models were built to determine associations between STH endemicity and geographical distribution of functional literacy, adjusting for demographics, household level variables, and the prevalence of malaria. Bayesian multinomial geostatistical models were built to geographically predict the prevalence of each level of functional literacy. The number of school-aged children belonging to each of the functional literacy indicator classes was forecast for 2017. We estimated 4.20% of functional illiteracy burden among school-aged children in Mindanao might be averted by preventing T. trichiura infections. Areas predicted with the highest prevalence of functional illiteracy were observed in localised areas of the eastern region of the Visayas, and the south-eastern portion of Mindanao. Conclusions/Significance: The study demonstrates significant geographical variation in burden of functional illiteracy in school-aged children associated with STH infections suggesting that targeted helminth control could potentially promote the development of cognitive function of school-aged children in the Philippines. The benefits of a spatially targeted strategy should be tested by future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anemia is a condition in which the number of red blood cells is not sufficient to meet the physiological need of the body. Women of reproductive age and pregnant women are at a high risk of anemia, which in turn may contribute to maternal morbidity and mortality. We aimed to describe the prevalence of anemia and the factors associated with the risk of developing anemia in women of reproductive age in Nepal. Additionally, we examined the association of women’s decision-making autonomy regarding healthcare and experience of intimate partner violence (IPV) with anemia. Data from the 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) were used in this study. The data were adjusted for sampling weight, stratification, and cluster sampling design. A battery-operated portable HemoCue was used to measure hemoglobin and detect anemia. Using complex sample logistic regression, the association between dependent and independent variables were examined; crude and adjusted odds ratio were reported. The mean (± SD) hemoglobin concentration was 12.13 g/dL (± 1.48). Overall, about 41% (95% CI 38.6–43.0%) of women aged 15–49 years were anemic. Women in households with wells as the source of drinking water (aOR 1.93; 95% CI 1.58–2.37) were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing anemia. While women who were currently using hormonal contraceptives (aOR 0.63, 95% CI 0.52–0.76) were significantly less likely to be anemic. After adjusting for background characteristics among women who were married at the time of the survey, decision-making autonomy regarding healthcare, and experience of IPV did not have a significant association with anemia. The high prevalence of anemia suggests the need for substantial improvement in the nutritional status of women. The increased disease burden compared with the past survey highlights the needs to reconsider the existing nutritional policy in Nepal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting reference evapotranspiration (ET0) with limited climatic data is crucial for irrigation scheduling design and agricultural water management. This study evaluated eight machine learning models in four categories, i.e. neuron-based (MLP, GRNN and ANFIS), kernel-based (SVM, KNEA), tree-based (M5Tree, XGBoost) and curve-based (MARS) models, for predicting daily ET0 with maximum/maximum temperature and precipitation data during 2001–2015 from 14 stations in various climatic regions of China, i.e., arid desert of northwest China (NWC), semi-arid steppe of Inner Mongolia (IM), Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), (semi-)humid cold-temperate northeast China (NEC), semi-humid warm-temperate north China (NC), humid subtropical central China (CC) and humid tropical south China (SC). The results showed machine learning models using only temperature data obtained satisfactory daily ET0 estimates (on average R2 = 0.829, RMSE = 0.718 mm day−1, NRMSE = 0.250 and MAE = 0.508 mm day−1). The prediction accuracy was improved by 7.6% across China when information of precipitation was further considered, particularly in (sub)tropical humid regions (by 9.7% in CC and 12.4% in SC). The kernel-based SVM, KNEA and curve-based MARS models generally outperformed the others in terms of prediction accuracy, with the best performance by KNEA in NWC and IM, by SVM in QTP, CC and SC, and very similar performance by them in NEC and NC. SVM (1.9%), MLP (2.0%), MARS (2.6%) and KNEA (6.4%) showed relatively small average increases in RMSE during testing compared with training RMSE. SVM is highly recommended for predicting daily ET0 across China in light of best accuracy and stability, while KNEA and MARS are also promising powerful models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This study investigated how the essential elements of informed consent are realised during the consent process and examined the challenges in obtaining genuine informed consent in Korea. Methods: Through purposive sampling, we recruited 21 subjects from those participating in anticancer drug research since 2013. We undertook 1:1 in-depth interviews and analysed the data by framework analysis. Results: Themes raised throughout the interviews were categorised into ‘disclosure’ and ‘understanding’ of clinical information and ‘decision’. Provider-centred information, both verbal and written, was delivered to each participant. There were few tools that the research staff might evaluate study participants’ level of understanding of the provided information during the clinical trial. Although participants did not understand basic clinical trial concepts as much as desired, they may not seek to solve difficulties through communication with trial researchers. Doubts were raised about whether participants had sufficient capacity and free will to provide informed consent. Conclusion: There is a concern that informed consent can fall short of genuine in Korea. To ensure informed consent meets the international standard, greater efforts should be made to establish an explicit standard operational protocol for obtaining informed consent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we designed a delayed payment mechanism in laboratory second price auctions (SPAs), under which subjects received a cash endowment two weeks after the experiment day and had to use their own money to pay the experimental losses (if any) on the experiment day. We compared the effect of delayed payment on overbidding in the induced value SPAs with the conventional “on-the-spot” payment mechanism where the subjects received an endowment on the experiment day, and the prepaid mechanism where the subjects received the endowment two weeks before the experiment day. Each auction was repeated for 20 rounds to provide sufficient learning opportunities to the bidders. Our results showed that bids converged to the corresponding values over auction rounds and overbidding was reduced by previous losses, consistently with the adaptive learning theory. Moreover, overbidding seems to depend significantly on bidders’ cash holding, and the magnitude of the payment treatment effects depends crucially on liquidity constraints. In the presence of liquidity constraints, both delayed and prepaid payment mechanisms reduced overbidding, while in the absence of liquidity constraints, only the delayed endowment mechanism reduced overbidding. Furthermore, when controlling the degree of liquidity constraints, subjects with higher GPAs were less likely to overbid and the delayed endowment mechanism significantly reduced overbidding compared to other payment mechanisms. These results suggest that overbidding in SPAs might be caused by bounded rationality and could be reduced by adaptive learning especially when overbidding becomes “truly” costly to subjects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Safety climate, which provides a snapshot of safety culture, is rarely measured in Indonesian healthcare organisations because there are no validated surveys that can be administered in its native language, Bahasa Indonesia. The objectives of this study were to translate and linguistically adapt the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire into Bahasa Indonesia, and investigate the internal construct validity and reliability of the translated survey. Methods: The Safety Attitudes Questionnaire was translated into Indonesian language through forward and backward translation. The internal construct validity and reliability of the translated survey was assessed using Rasch analysis which examines overall model fit, unidimensionality, response format, targeting, internal consistency reliability and item bias. Results: A total of 279 nurses (response rate 82%) completed the Indonesian version of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire. Most respondents were Division 2 registered nurses (n = 209; 75%), female (n = 174; 62%), and aged less than 30 years (n = 187; 67%). All six domains of the Indonesian version of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire demonstrated unidimensionality (t-test less than 0.05 threshold value). However, suboptimal targeting (ceiling effect) was observed in all domains, and had at least one misfitting item (item fit residual beyond ±2.5) Item bias was also evident in most domains. Conclusion: This study has translated and validated an Indonesian version of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire for the first time. Whilst there was general support to sum items to obtain domain scores, further work is required to refine the response options as well as the wording and number of items in this survey to improve its overall measurement properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Increased mobile phone subscribership in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) provides novel opportunities to track population health. The objective of this study was to examine reliability of data in comparing participant responses collected using two mobile phone survey (MPS) delivery modalities, computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI) and interactive voice response (IVR) in Bangladesh (BGD) and Tanzania (TZA). Methods: Using a cross-over design, we used random digit dialing (RDD) to call randomly generated mobile phone numbers and recruit survey participants to receive either a CATI or IVR survey on non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors, followed 7 days later by the survey mode not received during first contact; either IVR or CATI. Respondents who received the first survey were designated as first contact (FC) and those who consented to being called a second time and subsequently answered the call were designated as follow-up (FU). We used the same questionnaire for both contacts, with response options modified to suit the delivery mode. Reliability of responses was analyzed using the Cohen’s kappa statistic for percent agreement between two modes. Results: Self-reported data on demographic characteristics and NCD behavioral risk factors were collected from 482 (CATI-FC) and 653 (IVR-FC) age-eligible and consenting respondents in BGD, and from 387 (CATI-FC) and 674 (IVR-FC) respondents in TZA respectively. Survey follow-up rates were 30.7% (n = 482) for IVR-FU and 53.8% (n = 653) for CATI-FU in BGD; and 42.4% (n = 387) for IVR-FU and 49.9% (n = 674) for CATI-FU in TZA respectively. Overall, there was high consistency between delivery modalities for alcohol consumption in the past 30 days in both countries (kappa = 0.64 for CATI→IVR (BGD), kappa = 0.54 for IVR→CATI (BGD); kappa = 0.66 for CATI→IVR (TZA), kappa = 0.76 for IVR→CATI (TZA)), and current smoking (kappa = 0.68 for CATI→IVR (BGD), kappa = 0.69 for IVR→CATI (BGD); kappa = 0.39 for CATI→IVR (TZA), kappa = 0.50 for IVR→CATI (TZA)). There was moderate to substantial consistency in both countries for history of checking for hypertension and diabetes with kappa statistics ranging from 0.43 to 0.67. There was generally lower consistency in both countries for physical activity (vigorous and moderate) with kappa statistics ranging from 0.10 to 0.41, weekly fruit and vegetable with kappa ranging from 0.08 to 0.45, consumption of foods high in salt and efforts to limit salt with kappa generally below 0.3. Conclusions: The study found that when respondents are re-interviewed, the reliability of answers to most demographic and NCD variables is similar whether starting with CATI or IVR. The study underscores the need for caution when selecting questions for mobile phone surveys. Careful design can help ensure clarity of questions to minimize cognitive burden for respondents, many of whom may not have prior experience in taking automated surveys. Further research should explore possible differences and determinants of survey reliability between delivery modes and ideally compare both IVR and CATI surveys to in-person face-to-face interviews. In addition, research is needed to better understand factors that influence survey cooperation, completion, refusal and attrition rates across populations and contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

School socioeconomic status (SES) is studied primarily as a variable to explain academic achievement; however, few previous studies have investigated how SES can influence individual student's academic achievement. The present study used a national representative sample of 10,784 grade 7 to 9 students (53.2% boys and 46.8% girls) in mainland China to examine the links between school SES and students' math and Chinese achievements, including the math and Chinese teacher-student relationships as mediating factors. The parents provided family socioeconomic information and the students reported on their teacher-student relationships. Achievements in math and Chinese were assessed using standardized tests. Multilevel mediation analyses revealed that school SES was positively related to students' math and Chinese achievements. Moreover, the link between school SES and students' math achievement was partially mediated by students' perception of the math teacher-student relationship. The Chinese teacher-student relationship had no mediating effect. This study indicated that school SES can influence individual student's academic achievement via their perception of teacher-student relationship. The poverty and lack of resources is obvious, yet low SES schools could make efforts in improving teacher-student relationship's quality to promote students' academic performance. Meanwhile, low SES schools should receive more attention from policymakers to improve teaching quality and school climate. Furthermore, the study findings could be used for future research on the gap between low and high SES schools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We test and compare different incentives in motivating water conservation using a randomized controlled trial. In a field experiment carried out with Singaporean households, regular feedback was given, with informative, normative and monetary incentives provided to different groups. Evidence shows that all households saved an average of 4 Litres of water per person per day, with no difference in treatment effect found across various groups. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the water saving effect is also found to be more significant with high baseline users, who saved up to 5.9 Litres per person per day. High baseline households also respond more positively to the non-monetary incentives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Effective response to emerging infectious disease (EID) threats relies on health care systems that can detect and contain localised outbreaks before they reach a national or international scale. The Asia-Pacific region contains low and middle income countries in which the risk of EID outbreaks is elevated and whose health care systems may require international support to effectively detect and respond to such events. The absence of comprehensive data on populations, health care systems and disease characteristics in this region makes risk assessment and decisions about the provision of such support challenging. Methodology/principal findings: We describe a mathematical modelling framework that can inform this process by integrating available data sources, systematically explore the effects of uncertainty, and provide estimates of outbreak risk under a range of intervention scenarios. We illustrate the use of this framework in the context of a potential importation of Ebola Virus Disease into the Asia-Pacific region. Results suggest that, across a wide range of plausible scenarios, preemptive interventions supporting the timely detection of early cases provide substantially greater reductions in the probability of large outbreaks than interventions that support health care system capacity after an outbreak has commenced. Conclusions/significance: Our study demonstrates how, in the presence of substantial uncertainty about health care system infrastructure and other relevant aspects of disease control, mathematical models can be used to assess the constraints that limited resources place upon the ability of local health care systems to detect and respond to EID outbreaks in a timely and effective fashion. Our framework can help evaluate the relative impact of these constraints to identify resourcing priorities for health care system support, in order to inform principled and quantifiable decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]