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Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phylogenetic comparative studies rely on species-specific data that often contain missing values and/or differ in sample size among species. These phenomena may violate statistical assumptions about the non-random variance component in sampling effort. A major reason why this assumption is often not fulfilled is because the probability of being sampled (i.e., being captured or observed) may depend on species-specific characteristics. Here, we test this assumption by using information on within-species sample sizes and missing data from five independent comparative datasets of European birds. First, we show that the two estimates of data availability (missing values and within-species sample size) are positively correlated and are associated with research effort in general (the number of papers published). Second, we demonstrate biologically meaningful relationships between data availability and phenotypic traits. For example, population size, risk-taking, and habitat specialization independently predicted within-species sample size. The key determinants of missing data were population size and distribution range. However, data availability was not structured by phylogenetic relationships. These results indicate that the accuracy of sampling is repeatable and distributed non-randomly among species, as several species-specific attributes determined the probability of observation. Therefore, data availability seems to be a species-specific trait that can be shaped by ecology, life history, and behavior. Such relationships raise issues about non-random sampling, which requires attention in comparative studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This short paper summarises the information developed in the EU funded research project STAR on autecology databases, metrics, multimetrics and community approaches. For Europe the WFD implementation gave an important stimulus for the development of ecology based assessment techniques. Along with the development of metrics and multimetrics indices taxalists and autecological information were strongly improved. Recommendations are given to further develop ecological assessment in European streams and rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) is the most abundant cervid in Europe and, as such, has a considerable impact over several human activities. Accurate roe deer population size estimates are useful to ensure their proper management. We tested 3 methods for estimating roe deer abundance (drive counts, pellet-group counts, and camera trapping) during two consecutive years (2012 and 2013) in the Apennines (Italy) in order to assess their precision and applicability. During the study period, population density estimates were: drive counts 21.89±12.74 roe deer/km2 and pellet-group counts 18.74±2.31 roe deer/km2 in 2012; drive counts 19.32±11.12 roe deer/km2 and camera trapping 29.05±7.48 roe deer/km2 in 2013. Precision of the density estimates differed widely among the 3 methods, with coefficients of variation ranging from 12% (pellet-group counts) to 58% (drive counts). Drive counts represented the most demanding method on account of the higher number of operators involved. Pellet-group counts yielded the most precise results and required a smaller number of operators, though the sampling effort was considerable. When compared to the other two methods, camera trapping resulted in an intermediate level of precision and required the lowest sampling effort. We also discussed field protocols of each method, considering that volunteers, rather than technicians, will more likely be appointed for these tasks in the near future. For this reason, we strongly suggest that for each method managers of population density monitoring projects take into account ease of use as well as the quality of the results obtained and the resources required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum were geographically constrained to glacial refugia by the severity of the climate and ecological risk factors. In this research we use an agent-based model of human mobility and interaction, based on ethnographic and archaeological data, to explore the impact of ecological risk on human population structure via a reconstructed landscape of habitat suitability. The agent-based model allows us to evaluate the size and location of glacial refugia, the size of the populations occupying them and the degree of genetic relatedness between people occupying these areas. To do this, we model the probability of an agent foraging groups’ survival as a function of habitat suitability. The model’s simulated “genomes” (composed of regionally specific genetic markers) allow us to track long-term trends of inter-regional interaction and mobility. The results agree with previous archaeological studies situating a large glacial refugium spanning southern France and northeastern Spain, but we expand on those studies by demonstrating that higher rates of population growth in this central refugium led to continuous out-migration and therefore genetic homogeneity across Western Europe, with the possible exception of the Italian peninsula. These results concur with material culture data from known archaeological sites dating to the Last Glacial Maximum and make predictions for future ancient DNA studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causes of disappearance of the Neanderthals, the only human population living in Europe before the arrival of Homo sapiens, have been debated for decades by the scientific community. Different hypotheses have been advanced to explain this demise, such as cognitive, adaptive and cultural inferiority of Neanderthals. Here, we investigate the disappearance of Neanderthals by examining the extent of demographic changes needed over a period of 10,000 years (yrs) to lead to their extinction. In regard to such fossil populations, we inferred demographic parameters from present day and past hunter-gatherer populations, and from bio-anthropological rules. We used demographic modeling and simulations to identify the set of plausible demographic parameters of the Neanderthal population compatible with the observed dynamics, and to explore the circumstances under which they might have led to the disappearance of Neanderthals. A slight (<4%) but continuous decrease in the fertility rate of younger Neanderthal women could have had a significant impact on these dynamics, and could have precipitated their demise. Our results open the way to non-catastrophic events as plausible explanations for Neanderthal extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both close inbreeding and distant outbreeding may reduce fitness below the level of individuals with intermediate parental relatedness. In the haplodiploid plant-inhabiting predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis, which is patchily distributed within and among host plants, fitness is indeed reduced in the short term, i.e. by a single generation of inbreeding. However, in the medium to long term (multiple generations), distant out-breeding should provide for favorable demographic founder effects in isolated populations. We tested this prediction in isolated experimental lineages founded by females mated to a sibling (close inbreeding), a male from the same population (intermediate relatedness) or a male from another population (distant outbreeding) and monitored lineage growth and persistence over four generations. Cross-generationally, lineages founded by distantly outbred females performed the best, i.e. produced the most descendants. However, this was solely due to superior performance from the F2 generation onwards, whereas in the F1 generation, lineages founded by females mated to males from their own population (intermediate relatedness) performed the best, as predicted from short-term in- and out-breeding depression effects. At the genetic level, this result was most likely due to distantly outbred founders introducing higher allelic variability and lower homozygosity levels, counterbalancing inbreeding depression, which inevitably occurs in isolated lineages, from the F2 generation onwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many disciplines of scholarship are interested in the Relative Age Effect (RAE), whereby age-banding confers advantages on older members of the cohort over younger ones. Most research does not test this relationship in a manner consistent with theory (which requires a decline in frequency across the cohort year), instead resorting to non-parametric, non-directional approaches. In this article, the authors address this disconnect, provide an overview of the benefits associated with Poisson regression modelling, and two managerially useful measures for quantifying RAE bias, namely the Indices of Discrimination and Wastage. In a tutorial-like exposition, applications and extensions of this approach are illustrated using data on professional soccer players competing in the top two tiers of the “Big Five” European football leagues in the search to identify paragon clubs, leagues, and countries from which others may learn to mitigate this form of age-discrimination in the talent identification process. As with OLS regression, Poisson regression may include more than one independent variable. In this way we test competing explanations of RAE; control for unwanted sources of covariation; model interaction effects (that different clubs and countries may not all be subject to RAE to the same degree); and test for non-monotonic versions of RAE suggested in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brucellosis is a major public health problem still prevalent as a neglected endemic zoonosis requiring proactive attention in many communities worldwide. The present study involved analysis of Brucella field strains submitted for typing to the Italian National Reference Laboratory for Brucellosis from 2007 to 2015. Strains were identified at the species and biovar levels by classic and molecular techniques according to the World Organisation for Animal Health Manual. In total, 5,784 strains were typed: 3,089 Brucella abortus (53.4%), 2,497 B. melitensis (43.2%), 10 B. ovis (0.2%), 181 B. suis (3.1%), and 7 B. ceti (0.1%). The 2,981 strains from cattle were typed as B. abortus biovars 1, 3, and 6 (90.1%) and B. melitensis biovar 3 (9.9%). The 318 strains from water buffalo were typed as B. abortus biovars 1, 3 (95.9%) and B. melitensis biovar 3 (4.1%). The 2,279 strains from sheep and goats were typed as B. abortus biovars 1 and 3 (4.3%); B. melitensis biovars 1, 3, (95.3%); and B. ovis (0.4%). The 173 strains from wild boar were typed as B. suis biovar 2 (98.3%) and B. melitensis biovar 3 (1.7%). The 11 strains from pigs were typed as B. suis biovar 2. The 13 strains from humans were typed as B. melitensis biovar 3. The two strains from horses were typed as B. abortus biovar 1, while the seven strains from dolphins were typed as B. ceti. This additional knowledge on the epidemiology of brucellosis in Italy may be useful to formulate policies and strategies for the control and eradication of the disease in animal populations. The animal species affected, biovars typed, geographical origins, and spatial distributions of isolates are herein analyzed and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of the study is to analyze the standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Poland from 1999 to 2014 by sex and place of residence. Methods: The number of deaths due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (J40 –J44 and J47 according to ICD-10) over the period 1999 to 2014 was analyzed based on data obtained from the Central Statistical Office in Poland. Standard expected years of life lost due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were calculated by sex and place of residence according to the living population (SEYLLp) and the number of deaths caused by the disease (SEYLLd). Changes in the calculated measures were evaluated using joinpoint models. The annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) were also calculated. Results: The study revealed that COPD contributed to 1.8% of the total number of deaths which occurred between 1999 and 2014. The greatest decrease in the analyzed measures was observed among males from rural areas (p<0.05) (SEYLL: AAPC = -1.6; 95%CI: -3.0;-0.2; SEYLLp: AAPC = -2.0; 95%CI: -3.4;-0.6; SEYLLd: AAPC = -1.1; 95%CI: -1.2;-0.9). A statistically significant increase in the SEYLL and SEYLLp indices was observed among female city dwellers (SEYLL: AAPC = 2.4; 95%CI:0.7;4.0 and SEYLLp: AAPC = 2.4; 95%CI: 0.8;4.1). Conclusions: All studied measures were higher in the male group than in the female group, regardless of the place of residence. A male who died of COPD in Poland in 2014 potentially lost 14.9 years of life, whereas a female lost 14.2 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have reported that hydraulic properties vary considerably between tree species, but little is known about their intraspecific variation and, therefore, their capacity to adapt to a warmer and drier climate. Here, we quantify phenotypic divergence and clinal variation for embolism resistance, hydraulic conductivity and branch growth, in four tree species, two angiosperms (Betula pendula, Populus tremula) and two conifers (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris), across their latitudinal distribution in Europe. Growth and hydraulic efficiency varied widely within species and between populations. The variability of embolism resistance was in general weaker than that of growth and hydraulic efficiency, and very low for all species but Populus tremula. In addition, no and weak support for a safety vs. efficiency trade-off was observed for the angiosperm and conifer species, respectively. The limited variability of embolism resistance observed here for all species except Populus tremula, suggests that forest populations will unlikely be able to adapt hydraulically to drier conditions through the evolution of embolism resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Common walnut (Juglans regia L) is an economically important species cultivated worldwide for its high-quality wood and nuts. It is generally accepted that after the last glaciation J. regia survived and grew in almost completely isolated stands in Asia, and that ancient humans dispersed walnuts across Asia and into new habitats via trade and cultural expansion. The history of walnut in Europe is a matter of debate, however. In this study, we estimated the genetic diversity and structure of 91 Eurasian walnut populations using 14 neutral microsatellites. By integrating fossil pollen, cultural, and historical data with population genetics, and approximate Bayesian analysis, we reconstructed the demographic history of walnut and its routes of dispersal across Europe. The genetic data confirmed the presence of walnut in glacial refugia in the Balkans and western Europe. We conclude that human-mediated admixture between Anatolian and Balkan walnut germplasm started in the Early Bronze Age, and between western Europe and the Balkans in eastern Europe during the Roman Empire. A population size expansion and subsequent decline in northeastern and western Europe was detected in the last five centuries. The actual distribution of walnut in Europe resulted from the combined effects of expansion/contraction from multiple refugia after the Last Glacial Maximum and its human exploitation over the last 5,000 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The agricultural revolution in Eastern Europe began in the Eneolithic with the Cucuteni-Trypillia culture complex. In Ukraine, the Trypillian culture (TC) existed for over two millennia (ca. 5,400–2,700 BCE) and left a wealth of artifacts. Yet, their burial rituals remain a mystery and to date almost nothing is known about the genetic composition of the TC population. One of the very few TC sites where human remains can be found is a cave called Verteba in western Ukraine. This report presents four partial and four complete mitochondrial genomes from nine TC individuals uncovered in the cave. The results of this analysis, combined with the data from previous reports, indicate that the Trypillian population at Verteba carried, for the most part, a typical Neolithic farmer package of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages traced to Anatolian farmers and Neolithic farming groups of central Europe. At the same time, the find of two specimens belonging to haplogroup U8b1 at Verteba can be viewed as a connection of TC with the Upper Paleolithic European populations. At the level of mtDNA haplogroup frequencies, the TC population from Verteba demonstrates a close genetic relationship with population groups of the Funnel Beaker/ Trichterbecker cultural complex from central and northern Europe (ca. 3,950–2,500 BCE). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal and gene flow are important mechanisms affecting the dynamics of vectors and their pathogens. Here, patterns of genetic diversity were analyzed in many North European populations of the tick, Ixodes ricinus. Population sites were selected within and between areas separated by geographical barriers in order to evaluate the importance of tick transportation by birds in producing genetic connectivity across open sea and mountain ranges. The phylogenetic analyses of the mitochondrial control region and the cytochrome b gene revealed two distinct clades with supported sub-clades, with three genetic lineages: GB and WNo associated with Great Britain and western Norway respectively, and Eu with a wider distribution across continental Europe in agreement with much lower efficiency of tick dispersal by birds than by large mammals. The results suggest different ancestry of I. ricinus colonizing Britain and the rest of northern Europe, possibly from different glacial refuges, while ticks from western Norway and continental Europe share a more recent common ancestry. Demographic history modeling suggests a period of strong increase in tick abundance coincident with progression of the European Neolithic culture, long after their post-glacial colonization of NW Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, native to South East Asia, is listed as one of the worst invasive vector species worldwide. In Europe the species is currently restricted to Southern Europe, but due to the ongoing climate change, Ae. albopictus is expected to expand its potential range further northwards. In addition to modelling the habitat suitability for Ae. albopictus under current and future climatic conditions in Europe by means of the maximum entropy approach, we here focused on the drivers of the habitat suitability prediction. We explored the most limiting factors for Aedes albopictus in Europe under current and future climatic conditions, a method which has been neglected in species distribution modelling so far. Ae. albopictus is one of the best-studied mosquito species, which allowed us to evaluate the applied Maxent approach for most limiting factor mapping. We identified three key limiting factors for Ae. albopictus in Europe under current climatic conditions: winter temperature in Eastern Europe, summer temperature in Southern Europe. Model findings were in good accordance with commonly known establishment thresholds in Europe based on climate chamber experiments and derived from the geographical distribution of the species. Under future climatic conditions low winter temperature were modelled to remain the most limiting factor in Eastern Europe, whereas in Central Europe annual mean temperature and summer temperatures were modelled to be replaced by summer precipitation, respectively, as most limiting factors. Changes in the climatic conditions in terms of the identified key limiting factors will be of great relevance regarding the invasive potential of the Ae. albopictus. Thus, our results may help to understand the key drivers of the suggested range expansion under climate change and may help to improve monitoring programmes. The applied approach of investigating limiting factors has proven to yield valuable results and may also provide valuable insights into the drivers of the prediction of current and future distribution of other species. This might be particularly interesting for other vector species that are of increasing public health concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a long and deliberate persecution, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) is slowly recolonizing its former areas in Europe, and the genetic consequences of this process are of particular interest. Wolves, though present in mainland Estonia for a long time, have only recently started to recolonize the country’s two largest islands, Saaremaa and Hiiumaa. The main objective of this study was to analyse wolf population structure and processes in Estonia, with particular attention to the recolonization of islands. Fifteen microsatellite loci were genotyped for 185 individuals across Estonia. As a methodological novelty, all putative wolf-dog hybrids were identified and removed (n = 17) from the dataset beforehand to avoid interference of dog alleles in wolf population analysis. After the preliminary filtering, our final dataset comprised of 168 “pure” wolves. We recommend using hybrid-removal step as a standard precautionary procedure not only for wolf population studies, but also for other taxa prone to hybridization. STRUCTURE indicated four genetic groups in Estonia. Spatially explicit DResD analysis identified two areas, one of them on Saaremaa island and the other in southwestern Estonia, where neighbouring individuals were genetically more similar than expected from an isolation-by-distance null model. Three blending areas and two contrasting transition zones were identified in central Estonia, where the sampled individuals exhibited strong local differentiation over relatively short distance. Wolves on the largest Estonian islands are part of human-wildlife conflict due to livestock depredation. Negative public attitude, especially on Saaremaa where sheep herding is widespread, poses a significant threat for island wolves. To maintain the long-term viability of the wolf population on Estonian islands, not only wolf hunting quota should be targeted with extreme care, but effective measures should be applied to avoid inbreeding and minimize conflicts with local communities and stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aedes albopictus is a tropical invasive species which in the last decades spread worldwide, also colonizing temperate regions of Europe and US, where it has become a public health concern due to its ability to transmit exotic arboviruses, as well as severe nuisance problems due to its aggressive daytime outdoor biting behaviour. While several studies have been carried out in order to predict the potential limits of the species expansions based on eco-climatic parameters, few studies have so far focused on the specific effects of these variables in shaping its micro-geographic abundance and dynamics. The present study investigated eco-climatic factors affecting Ae. albopictus abundance and dynamics in metropolitan and sub-urban/rural sites in Rome (Italy), which was colonized in 1997 and is nowadays one of the most infested metropolitan areas in Southern Europe. To this aim, longitudinal adult monitoring was carried out along a 70 km-transect across and beyond the most urbanized and densely populated metropolitan area. Two fine scale spatiotemporal datasets (one with reference to a 20m circular buffer around sticky traps used to collect mosquitoes and the second to a 300m circular buffer within each sampling site) were exploited to analyze the effect of climatic and socio-environmental variables on Ae. albopictus abundance and dynamics along the transect. Results showed an association between highly anthropized habitats and high adult abundance both in metropolitan and sub-urban/rural areas, with “small green islands” corresponding to hot spots of abundance in the metropolitan areas only, and a bimodal seasonal dynamics with a second peak of abundance in autumn, due to heavy rains occurring in the preceding weeks in association with permissive temperatures. The results provide useful indications to prioritize public mosquito control measures in temperate urban areas where nuisance, human-mosquito contact and risk of local arbovirus transmission are likely higher, and highlight potential public health risks also after the summer months typically associated with high mosquito densities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent of gene flow during the range expansion of non-native species influences the amount of genetic diversity retained in expanding populations. Here, we analyse the population genetic structure of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in north-eastern and central Europe. This invasive species is of management concern because it is highly susceptible to fox rabies and an important secondary host of the virus. We hypothesized that the large number of introduced animals and the species’ dispersal capabilities led to high population connectivity and maintenance of genetic diversity throughout the invaded range. We genotyped 332 tissue samples from seven European countries using 16 microsatellite loci. Different algorithms identified three genetic clusters corresponding to Finland, Denmark and a large ‘central’ population that reached from introduction areas in western Russia to northern Germany. Cluster assignments provided evidence of long-distance dispersal. The results of an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis supported a scenario of equal effective population sizes among different pre-defined populations in the large central cluster. Our results are in line with strong gene flow and secondary admixture between neighbouring demes leading to reduced genetic structuring, probably a result of its fairly rapid population expansion after introduction. The results presented here are remarkable in the sense that we identified a homogenous genetic cluster inhabiting an area stretching over more than 1500km. They are also relevant for disease management, as in the event of a significant rabies outbreak, there is a great risk of a rapid virus spread among raccoon dog populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Infants from multiple pregnancies have higher rates of preterm birth, stillbirth and neonatal death and differences in multiple birth rates (MBR) exist between countries. We aimed to describe differences in MBR in Europe and to investigate the impact of these differences on adverse perinatal outcomes at a population level. Methods: We used national aggregate birth data on multiple pregnancies, maternal age, gestational age (GA), stillbirth and neonatal death collected in the Euro-Peristat project (29 countries in 2010, N = 5 074 643 births). We also used European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE) data on assisted conception and single embryo transfer (SET). The impact of MBR on outcomes was studied using meta-analysis techniques with random-effects models to derive pooled risk ratios (pRR) overall and for four groups of country defined by their MBR. We computed population attributable risks (PAR) for these groups. Results: In 2010, the average MBR was 16.8 per 1000 women giving birth, ranging from 9.1 (Romania) to 26.5 (Cyprus). Compared to singletons, multiples had a nine-fold increased risk (pRR 9.4, 95% Cl 9.1–9.8) of preterm birth (<37 weeks GA), an almost 12-fold increased risk (pRR 11.7, 95% CI 11.0–12.4) of very preterm birth (<32 weeks GA). Pooled RR were 2.4 (95% Cl 1.5–3.6) for fetal mortality at or after 28 weeks GA and 7.0 (95% Cl 6.1–8.0) for neonatal mortality. PAR of neonatal death and very preterm birth were higher in countries with high MBR compared to low MBR (17.1% (95% CI 13.8–20.2) versus 9.8% (95% Cl 9.6–11.0) for neonatal death and 29.6% (96% CI 28.5–30.6) versus 17.5% (95% CI 15.7–18.3) for very preterm births, respectively). Conclusions: Wide variations in MBR and their impact on population outcomes imply that efforts by countries to reduce MBR could improve perinatal outcomes, enabling better long-term child health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of the proportion of immature skeletons recovered from European prehistoric cemeteries has shown that the transition to agriculture after 9000 BP triggered a long-term increase in human fertility. Here we compare the largest analysis of European cemeteries to date with an independent line of evidence, the summed calibrated date probability distribution of radiocarbon dates (SCDPD) from archaeological sites. Our cemetery reanalysis confirms increased growth rates after the introduction of agriculture; the radiocarbon analysis also shows this pattern, and a significant correlation between both lines of evidence confirms the demographic validity of SCDPDs. We analyze the areal extent of Neolithic enclosures and demographic data from ethnographically known farming and foraging societies and we estimate differences in population levels at individual sites. We find little effect on the overall shape and precision of the SCDPD and we observe a small increase in the correlation with the cemetery trends. The SCDPD analysis supports the hypothesis that the transition to agriculture dramatically increased demographic growth, but it was followed within centuries by a general pattern of collapse even after accounting for higher settlement densities during the Neolithic. The study supports the unique contribution of SCDPDs as a valid demographic proxy for the demographic patterns associated with early agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To compare the similarities among the multimorbidity patterns identified in primary care patients from two European regions (Spain and the Netherlands) with similar organisational features of their primary care systems, using validated methodologies. Methodology: This observational, retrospective, multicentre study analysed information from primary care electronic medical records. Multimorbidity patterns were assessed using exploratory factor analysis of the diagnostic information of patients over 14 years of age. The analysis was stratified by age groups and sex. Results: The analysis of Dutch data revealed a higher prevalence of multimorbidity which corresponds with the clustering of a higher number of diseases in each of the patterns. Relevant clinical similarities were found between both countries for three multimorbidity patterns that were previously identified in the original Spanish study: cardiometabolic, mechanical and psychiatric-substance abuse. In addition, the clinical evolution towards complexity of the cardiometabolic pattern with advancing age -already demonstrated in the original study- was corroborated in the Dutch context. A clear association between mechanical and psychosocial disorders was unique to the Dutch population, as well as the recurrent presentation of the psychiatric-substance abuse pattern in all age and sex groups. Conclusions: The similarities found for the cardiometabolic, mechanical and psychiatric-substance abuse patterns in primary care patients from two different European countries could offer initial clues for the elaboration of clinical practice guidelines, if further evidenced in other contexts. This study also endorses the use of primary care electronic medical records for the epidemiologic characterization of multimorbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genetic impact associated to the Neolithic spread in Europe has been widely debated over the last 20 years. Within this context, ancient DNA studies have provided a more reliable picture by directly analyzing the protagonist populations at different regions in Europe. However, the lack of available data from the original Near Eastern farmers has limited the achieved conclusions, preventing the formulation of continental models of Neolithic expansion. Here we address this issue by presenting mitochondrial DNA data of the original Near-Eastern Neolithic communities with the aim of providing the adequate background for the interpretation of Neolithic genetic data from European samples. Sixty-three skeletons from the Pre Pottery Neolithic B (PPNB) sites of Tell Halula, Tell Ramad and Dja'de El Mughara dating between 8,700–6,600 cal. B.C. were analyzed, and 15 validated mitochondrial DNA profiles were recovered. In order to estimate the demographic contribution of the first farmers to both Central European and Western Mediterranean Neolithic cultures, haplotype and haplogroup diversities in the PPNB sample were compared using phylogeographic and population genetic analyses to available ancient DNA data from human remains belonging to the Linearbandkeramik-Alföldi Vonaldiszes Kerámia and Cardial/Epicardial cultures. We also searched for possible signatures of the original Neolithic expansion over the modern Near Eastern and South European genetic pools, and tried to infer possible routes of expansion by comparing the obtained results to a database of 60 modern populations from both regions. Comparisons performed among the 3 ancient datasets allowed us to identify K and N-derived mitochondrial DNA haplogroups as potential markers of the Neolithic expansion, whose genetic signature would have reached both the Iberian coasts and the Central European plain. Moreover, the observed genetic affinities between the PPNB samples and the modern populations of Cyprus and Crete seem to suggest that the Neolithic was first introduced into Europe through pioneer seafaring colonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accelerating introductions of forest insects challenge decision-makers who might or might not respond with surveillance programs, quarantines, eradication efforts, or biological control programs. Comparing ecological controls on indigenous vs. introduced populations could inform responses to new introductions. We studied the European woodwasp, Sirex noctilio, which is not a pest in its native forests, is a serious invasive pest in the southern hemisphere, and now has an uncertain future in North America after its introduction there. Indigenous populations of S. noctilio (in Galicia, Spain) resembled those in New York in that S. noctilio were largely restricted to suppressed trees that were also dying for other reasons, and still only some dying trees showed evidence of S. noctilio: 20–40% and 35–51% in Galicia and New York, respectively. In both areas, P. sylvestris (native to Europe) was the species most likely to have attacks in non-suppressed trees. P. resinosa, native to North America, does not appear dangerously susceptible to S. noctilio. P. radiata, which sustains high damage in the southern hemisphere, is apparently not innately susceptible because in Galicia it was less often used by native S. noctilio than either native pine (P. pinaster and P. sylvestris). Silvicultural practices in Galicia that maintain basal area at 25–40 m2/ha limit S. noctilio abundance. More than 25 species of other xylophagous insects feed on pine in Galicia, but co-occurrences with S. noctilio were infrequent, so strong interspecific competition seemed unlikely. Evidently, S. noctilio in northeastern North America will be more similar to indigenous populations in Europe, where it is not a pest, than to introduced populations in the southern hemisphere, where it is. However, S. noctilio populations could behave differently when they reach forests of the southeastern U.S., where tree species, soils, climate, ecology, management, and landscape configurations of pine stands are different. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plasmids encoding resistance and virulence properties in multidrug resistant (MDR) Salmonella enterica (S.) serovar Typhimurium monophasic variant 4,[5],12:i:- isolates recovered from pigs and humans (2006-2008) in Europe were characterised. The isolates were selected based on the detection by PCR-amplification of S. Typhimurium virulence plasmid pSLT genes and were analysed by multi-locus sequence typing (MLST). The resistance genes present in the isolates and the association of these genes with integrons, transposons and insertion sequences were characterised by PCR-sequencing, and their plasmid location was determined by alkaline lysis and by S1-nuclease pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) Southern-blot hybridisation. Plasmids were further analysed by replicon typing, plasmid MLST and conjugation experiments. The 10 S. 4,[5],12,i:- selected isolates belonged to ST19. Each isolate carried a large plasmid in which MDR with pSLT-associated virulence genes were located. After analysis, eight different plasmids of three incompatibility groups (IncA/C, IncR and IncF) were detected. Two IncA/C plasmids represented novel variants within the plasmid family of the S. 4,[5],12:i:- Spanish clone, and carried an empty class 1 integron with a conventional qacEΔ1-sul1 3′ conserved segment or an In-sul3 type III with estX-psp-aadA2-cmlA1-aadA1-qacH variable region linked to tnpA440-sul3, part of Tn2, Tn21 and Tn1721 transposons, and ISCR2. Four newly described IncR plasmids contained the resistance genes within In-sul3 type I (dfrA12-orfF-aadA2-cmlA1-aadA1-qacH/tnpA440-sul3) and part of Tn10 [tet(B)]. Two pSLT-derivatives with FIIs-ST1+FIB-ST17 replicons carried cmlA1-[aadA1-aadA2]-sul3-dfrA12 and blaTEM-1 genes linked to an In-sul3 type I integron and to Tn2, respectively. In conclusion, three emerging European clones of S. 4,[5],12:i:- harboured MDR plasmids encoding additional virulence functions that could contribute significantly to their evolutionary success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an invasive weed in Europe with highly allergenic pollen. Populations are currently well established and cause significant health problems in the French Rhône valley, Austria, Hungary and Croatia but transient or casual introduced populations are also found in more Northern and Eastern European countries. A process-based model of weed growth, competition and population dynamics was used to predict the future potential for range expansion of A.artemisiifolia under climate change scenarios. The model predicted a northward shift in the available climatic niche for populations to establish and persist, creating a risk of increased health problems in countries including the UK and Denmark. This was accompanied by an increase in relative pollen production at the northern edge of its range. The southern European limit for A.artemisiifolia was not expected to change; populations continued to be limited by drought stress in Spain and Southern Italy. The process-based approach to modelling the impact of climate change on plant populations has the advantage over correlative species distribution models of being able to capture interactions of climate, land use and plant competition at the local scale. However, for this potential to be fully realised, additional empirical data are required on competitive dynamics of A.artemisiifolia in different crops and ruderal plant communities and its capacity to adapt to local conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus (L.) are successful invaders in Europe, where this species exerts multiple ecological effects, mainly through trophic interactions. Behavioural interference represents a potential impact for native fauna and this is of particular conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula because of the highly valuable endemic fauna inhabiting streams of this region. However, aggressive interactions have not previously been examined under natural conditions in Iberian fresh waters. To address this gap in knowledge, the aim of the present study was to assess the effect of pumpkinseed aggression on endemic fauna of an Iberian stream, the River Bullaque (central Spain). In September 2009, we analysed the aggression and environmental contexts of these behavioural interactions by snorkelling: aggressor size, aggression type, shoal size, previous activity to aggression, recipient species, response to aggression, microhabitat structure and prey availability. Small pumpkinseed displayed more threat and fewer pursuit behaviours relative to medium and large individuals, reflecting an ontogenetic behavioural shift from low to high aggression intensity. Small aggressors came from large shoals, with bottom feeding being the most frequently observed activity prior to an aggressive interaction; whereas large pumpkinseed were less gregarious and they were mostly ambulating within the water column prior to aggression. Recipient species of aggression included non-native crayfish and fishes, and more importantly, endemic fishes and frogs. Retreat was the most common response to aggression, irrespective of aggressor size. Small pumpkinseed displayed aggressive behaviours over coarse substrata containing elevated macrobenthos biomass; whereas aggression by large individuals was observed in deeper waters. These findings suggest that small and large pumpkinseed exert a high impact on other stream residents through aggression in competition for food and territory defence, respectively. This study highlights the usefulness of direct observations in the wild for assessing the effects of behavioural interference of invasive fishes on Iberian aquatic communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The case rate of Q fever in Europe has increased dramatically in recent years, mainly because of an epidemic in the Netherlands in 2009. Consequently, there is a need for more extensive genetic characterization of the disease agent Coxiella burnetii in order to better understand the epidemiology and spread of this disease. Genome reference data are essential for this purpose, but only thirteen genome sequences are currently available. Current methods for typing C. burnetii are criticized for having problems in comparing results across laboratories, require the use of genomic control DNA, and/or rely on markers in highly variable regions. We developed in this work a method for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) typing of C. burnetii isolates and tissue samples based on new assays targeting ten phylogenetically stable synonymous canonical SNPs (canSNPs). These canSNPs represent previously known phylogenetic branches and were here identified from sequence comparisons of twenty-one C. burnetii genomes, eight of which were sequenced in this work. Importantly, synthetic control templates were developed, to make the method useful to laboratories lacking genomic control DNA. An analysis of twenty-one C. burnetii genomes confirmed that the species exhibits high sequence identity. Most of its SNPs (7,493/7,559 shared by >1 genome) follow a clonal inheritance pattern and are therefore stable phylogenetic typing markers. The assays were validated using twenty-six genetically diverse C. burnetii isolates and three tissue samples from small ruminants infected during the epidemic in the Netherlands. Each sample was assigned to a clade. Synthetic controls (vector and PCR amplified) gave identical results compared to the corresponding genomic controls and are viable alternatives to genomic DNA. The results from the described method indicate that it could be useful for cheap and rapid disease source tracking at non-specialized laboratories, which requires accurate genotyping, assay accessibility and inter-laboratory comparisons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gene flow is a key factor in the evolution of species, influencing effective population size, hybridisation and local adaptation. We analysed local gene flow in eight stands of white oak (mostly Quercus petraea and Q. robur, but also Q. pubescens and Q. faginea) distributed across Europe. Adult trees within a given area in each stand were exhaustively sampled (range [239, 754], mean 423), mapped, and acorns were collected ([17,147], 51) from several mother trees ([3], [47], 23). Seedlings ([65,387], 178) were harvested and geo-referenced in six of the eight stands. Genetic information was obtained from screening distinct molecular markers spread across the genome, genotyping each tree, acorn or seedling. All samples were thus genotyped at 5–8 nuclear microsatellite loci. Fathers/parents were assigned to acorns and seedlings using likelihood methods. Mating success of male and female parents, pollen and seed dispersal curves, and also hybridisation rates were estimated in each stand and compared on a continental scale. On average, the percentage of the wind-borne pollen from outside the stand was 60%, with large variation among stands (21–88%). Mean seed immigration into the stand was 40%, a high value for oaks that are generally considered to have limited seed dispersal. However, this estimate varied greatly among stands (20–66%). Gene flow was mostly intraspecific, with large variation, as some trees and stands showed particularly high rates of hybridisation. Our results show that mating success was unevenly distributed among trees. The high levels of gene flow suggest that geographically remote oak stands are unlikely to be genetically isolated, questioning the static definition of gene reserves and seed stands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) following the United States' 1976 swine flu vaccination campaign in the USA led to enhanced active surveillance during the pandemic influenza (A(H1N1)pdm09) immunization campaign. This study aimed to estimate the risk of GBS following influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination. Methods: A self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis was performed in Denmark, Finland, France, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Information was collected according to a common protocol and standardised procedures. Cases classified at levels 1–4a of the Brighton Collaboration case definition were included. The risk window was 42 days starting the day after vaccination. Conditional Poisson regression and pooled random effects models estimated adjusted relative incidences (RI). Pseudo likelihood and vaccinated-only methods addressed the potential contraindication for vaccination following GBS. Results: Three hundred and three (303) GBS and Miller Fisher syndrome cases were included. Ninety-nine (99) were exposed to A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination, which was most frequently adjuvanted (Pandemrix and Focetria). The unadjusted pooled RI for A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination and GBS was 3.5 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.2–5.5), based on all countries. This lowered to 2.0 (95% CI: 1.2–3.1) after adjustment for calendartime and to 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1–3.2) when we accounted for contra-indications. In a subset (Netherlands, Norway, and United Kingdom) we further adjusted for other confounders and there the RI decreased from 1.7 (adjusted for calendar month) to 1.4 (95% CI: 0.7–2.8), which is the main finding. Conclusion: This study illustrates the potential of conducting European collaborative vaccine safety studies. The main, fully adjusted analysis, showed that the RI of GBS was not significantly elevated after influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination (RI = 1.4 (95% CI: 0.7–2.8). Based on the upper limits of the pooled estimate we can rule out with 95% certainty that the number of excess GBS cases after influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination would be more than 3 per million vaccinated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A polymorphism on the MUC5B promoter (rs35705950) has been associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) but not with systemic sclerosis (SSc) with interstitial lung disease (ILD). We genotyped the MUC5B promoter in the first 142 patients of the French national prospective cohort of IPF, in 981 French patients with SSc (346 ILD), 598 Italian patients with SSc (207 ILD), 1383 French controls and 494 Italian controls. A meta-analysis was performed including all American data available. The T risk allele was present in 41.9% of the IPF patients, 10.8% of the controls (P = 2×10–44), OR 6.3 [4.6–8.7] for heterozygous patients and OR 21.7 [10.4–45.3] for homozygous patients. Prevalence of the T allele was not modified according to age, gender, smoking in IPF patients. However, none of the black patients with IPF presented the T allele. The prevalence of the T risk allele was similar between French (10%) and Italian (12%) cohorts of SSc whatever the presence of an ILD (11.1% and 13.5%, respectively). Meta-analysis confirmed the similarity between French, Italian and American cohorts of IPF or SSc-ILD. This study confirms 1) an association between the T allele risk and IPF, 2) an absence of association with SSc-ILD, suggesting different pathophysiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecological impacts of changing forest management practices in Europe are poorly understood despite European forests being highly managed. Furthermore, the effects of potential drivers of forest biodiversity decline are rarely considered in concert, thus limiting effective conservation or sustainable forest management. We present a trait-based framework that we use to assess the detrimental impact of multiple land-use and management changes in forests on bird populations across Europe. Major changes to forest habitats occurring in recent decades, and their impact on resource availability for birds were identified. Risk associated with these changes for 52 species of forest birds, defined as the proportion of each species' key resources detrimentally affected through changes in abundance and/or availability, was quantified and compared to their pan-European population growth rates between 1980 and 2009. Relationships between risk and population growth were found to be significantly negative, indicating that resource loss in European forests is an important driver of decline for both resident and migrant birds. Our results demonstrate that coarse quantification of resource use and ecological change can be valuable in understanding causes of biodiversity decline, and thus in informing conservation strategy and policy. Such an approach has good potential to be extended for predictive use in assessing the impact of possible future changes to forest management and to develop more precise indicators of forest health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Divergent selection and local adaptation are responsible for many phenotypic differences between populations, potentially leading to speciation through the evolution of reproductive barriers. Here we evaluated the morphometric divergence among west European populations of Reed Bunting in order to determine the extent of local adaptation relative to two important selection pressures often associated with speciation in birds: migration and diet. We show that, as expected by theory, migratory E. s. schoeniclus had longer and more pointed wings and a slightly smaller body mass than the resident subspecies, with the exception of E. s. lusitanica, which despite having rounder wings was the smallest of all subspecies. Tail length, however, did not vary according to the expectation (shorter tails in migrants) probably because it is strongly correlated with wing length and might take longer to evolve. E. s. witherbyi, which feed on insects hiding inside reed stems during the winter, had a very thick, stubby bill. In contrast, northern populations, which feed on seeds, had thinner bills. Despite being much smaller, the southern E. s. lusitanica had a significantly thicker, longer bill than migratory E. s. schoeniclus, whereas birds from the UK population had significantly shorter, thinner bills. Geometric morphometric analyses revealed that the southern subspecies have a more convex culmen than E. s. schoeniclus, and E. s. lusitanica differs from the nominate subspecies in bill shape to a greater extent than in linear bill measurements, especially in males. Birds with a more convex culmen are thought to exert a greater strength at the bill tip, which is in agreement with their feeding technique. Overall, the three subspecies occurring in Western Europe differ in a variety of traits following the patterns predicted from their migratory and foraging behaviours, strongly suggesting that these birds have became locally adapted through natural selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Observational studies implicate higher dietary energy density (DED) as a potential risk factor for weight gain and obesity. It has been hypothesized that DED may also be associated with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but limited evidence exists. Therefore, we investigated the association between DED and risk of T2D in a large prospective study with heterogeneity of dietary intake. Methodology/Principal Findings: A case-cohort study was nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC) study of 340,234 participants contributing 3.99 million person years of follow-up, identifying 12,403 incident diabetes cases and a random subcohort of 16,835 individuals from 8 European countries. DED was calculated as energy (kcal) from foods (except beverages) divided by the weight (gram) of foods estimated from dietary questionnaires. Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were fitted by country. Risk estimates were pooled by random effects meta-analysis and heterogeneity was evaluated. Estimated mean (sd) DED was 1.5 (0.3) kcal/g among cases and subcohort members, varying across countries (range 1.4–1.7 kcal/g). After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, energy intake from beverages and misreporting of dietary intake, no association was observed between DED and T2D (HR 1.02 (95% CI: 0.93–1.13), which was consistent across countries (I2 = 2.9%). Conclusions/Significance: In this large European case-cohort study no association between DED of solid and semi-solid foods and risk of T2D was observed. However, despite the fact that there currently is no conclusive evidence for an association between DED and T2DM risk, choosing low energy dense foods should be promoted as they support current WHO recommendations to prevent chronic diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the dispersal of small flying insects such as Culicoides constitutes a great challenge due to huge population sizes and lack of a method to efficiently mark and objectively detect many specimens at a time. We here describe a novel mark-release-recapture method for Culicoides in the field using fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC) as marking agent without anaesthesia. Using a plate scanner, this detection technique can be used to analyse thousands of individual Culicoides specimens per day at a reasonable cost. We marked and released an estimated 853 specimens of the Pulicaris group and 607 specimens of the Obsoletus group on a cattle farm in Denmark. An estimated 9,090 (8,918–9,260) Obsoletus group specimens and 14,272 (14,194–14,448) Pulicaris group specimens were captured in the surroundings and subsequently analysed. Two (0.3%) Obsoletus group specimens and 28 (4.6%) Pulicaris group specimens were recaptured. The two recaptured Obsoletus group specimens were caught at the release point on the night following release. Eight (29%) of the recaptured Pulicaris group specimens were caught at a pig farm 1,750 m upwind from the release point. Five of these were recaptured on the night following release and the three other were recaptured on the second night after release. This is the first time that movement of Culicoides vectors between farms in Europe has been directly quantified. The findings suggest an extensive and rapid exchange of disease vectors between farms. Rapid movement of vectors between neighboring farms may explain the the high rate of spatial spread of Schmallenberg and bluetongue virus (BTV) in northern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction of mass vaccination against Varicella-Zoster-Virus (VZV) is being delayed in many European countries because of, among other factors, the possibility of a large increase in Herpes Zoster (HZ) incidence in the first decades after the initiation of vaccination, due to the expected decline of the boosting of Cell Mediated Immunity caused by the reduced varicella circulation. A multi-country model of VZV transmission and reactivation, is used to evaluate the possible impact of varicella vaccination on HZ epidemiology in Italy, Finland and the UK. Despite the large uncertainty surrounding HZ and vaccine-related parameters, surprisingly robust medium-term predictions are provided, indicating that an increase in HZ incidence is likely to occur in countries where the incidence rate is lower in absence of immunization, possibly due to a higher force of boosting (e.g. Finland), whereas increases in HZ incidence might be minor where the force of boosting is milder (e.g. the UK). Moreover, a convergence of HZ post vaccination incidence levels in the examined countries is predicted despite different initial degrees of success of immunization policies. Unlike previous model-based evaluations, our investigation shows that after varicella immunization an increase of HZ incidence is not a certain fact, rather depends on the presence or absence of factors promoting a strong boosting intensity and which might or not be heavily affected by changes in varicella circulation due to mass immunization. These findings might explain the opposed empirical evidences observed about the increases of HZ in sites where mass varicella vaccination is ongoing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The identification of isolation signatures is fundamental to better understand the genetic structure of human populations and to test the relations between cultural factors and genetic variation. However, with current approaches, it is not possible to distinguish between the consequences of long-term isolation and the effects of reduced sample size, selection and differential gene flow. To overcome these limitations, we have integrated the analysis of classical genetic diversity measures with a Bayesian method to estimate gene flow and have carried out simulations based on the coalescent. Combining these approaches, we first tested whether the relatively short history of cultural and geographical isolation of four “linguistic islands” of the Eastern Alps (Lessinia, Sauris, Sappada and Timau) had left detectable signatures in their genetic structure. We then compared our findings to previous studies of European population isolates. Finally, we explored the importance of demographic and cultural factors in shaping genetic diversity among the groups under study. A combination of small initial effective size and continued genetic isolation from surrounding populations seems to provide a coherent explanation for the diversity observed among Sauris, Sappada and Timau, which was found to be substantially greater than in other groups of European isolated populations. Simulations of micro-evolutionary scenarios indicate that ethnicity might have been important in increasing genetic diversity among these culturally related and spatially close populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous genetic, anthropological and linguistic studies have shown that Roma (Gypsies) constitute a founder population dispersed throughout Europe whose origins might be traced to the Indian subcontinent. Linguistic and anthropological evidence point to Indo-Aryan ethnic groups from North-western India as the ancestral parental population of Roma. Recently, a strong genetic hint supporting this theory came from a study of a private mutation causing primary congenital glaucoma. In the present study, complete mitochondrial control sequences of Iberian Roma and previously published maternal lineages of other European Roma were analyzed in order to establish the genetic affinities among Roma groups, determine the degree of admixture with neighbouring populations, infer the migration routes followed since the first arrival to Europe, and survey the origin of Roma within the Indian subcontinent. Our results show that the maternal lineage composition in the Roma groups follows a pattern of different migration routes, with several founder effects, and low effective population sizes along their dispersal. Our data allowed the confirmation of a North/West migration route shared by Polish, Lithuanian and Iberian Roma. Additionally, eleven Roma founder lineages were identified and degrees of admixture with host populations were estimated. Finally, the comparison with an extensive database of Indian sequences allowed us to identify the Punjab state, in North-western India, as the putative ancestral homeland of the European Roma, in agreement with previous linguistic and anthropological studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. In response to warmer spring conditions in Central Europe many migratory bird species have shifted their timing of breeding. Environmental change has also led to warmer winters, shortening the distance between the breeding grounds of migratory birds and their overwintering areas. 2. Here, we show that in response to warmer winters, blue tits ( Cyanistes caeruleus), but not great tits ( Parus major), breeding in Germany decreased their migration distance between 1964 and 1996. Understanding this difference provides insight into possible constraints and selection pressures involved in how species respond to environmental change. Here, we focus on their breeding ecology. 3. In a nest box population in southern Germany, both species laid their first clutch earlier with increasing spring temperature, but over the study period (1974–1999) blue tits showed a significant and stronger advancement in laying date than great tits. For both species, selection for earlier breeding did not vary with environmental change, indicating that early laying pairs did not do better than later laying pairs as spring temperature increased. 4. Blue tits in the nest box population were single-brooded and existing hypotheses state that single-brooded species likely advance their laying date to match timing of reproduction with the advancing food peak in spring. We hypothesize that this might be one reason why blue tits adjusted their migration strategy as closer proximity to the breeding grounds in winter allows better prediction of the onset of spring. Ten per cent of great tits successfully produced second broods and their first clutch laying date is a compromise between first and second clutch laying date, which might be why great tits had not advanced their laying date nor altered their migration strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts to disentangle the mechanisms underlying large-scale spatial patterns need to rely on multi-scale approaches. We illustrate this key issue by analyzing the spatial consistency across scales of the effects of abiotic constraints on the regeneration of English yew Taxus baccata in Europe. We hypothesized that the recruitment rates in a given population would be strongly affected by water availability, which should result in a predictable pattern of regeneration success at regional and continental scales. Accordingly, we predicted: 1) at the regional scale water availability should be higher in sites occupied by yew populations than in random locations; 2) at the regional scale regeneration success should decrease when water availability is lower; and 3) at the continental scale, regeneration success should also decrease where water availability is lower, resulting in decreasing regeneration southwards. To test these predictions we first monitored seedling emergence and survival in two central Spanish populations over two years, and confirmed that yew recruitment is limited by water availability. Additionally, our analysis supported predictions 1 and 2: water availability strongly affected yew presence and regeneration success. At the continental scale (prediction 3), our results confirmed lower regeneration in southern European populations. Assessing the effect of climatic constraints across scales in key population parameters can help to improve large-scale assessments of impacts of climate change on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Estimates of abundances and densities of birds and mammals have often been shown to be scale dependent, in that population sizes over large areas are overestimated if extrapolated from surveys of small plots. Previous tests of the mechanisms suggested to cause this decelerating scaling pattern found evidence of a biased choice of small plots in patches of homogeneous habitat. Here we show that negative density–area relationships can also arise as result of not considering plots where individuals of the species or assemblage of interest are absent in surveys of differing spatial resolution. Location We took a complete census of violets ( Viola spp.) in 800 m2 of chalk grassland in Wye, Kent, UK, and used human population censuses for Finnish, Swiss and Italian municipalities, English districts, states of the USA and European countries. Methods We used mixed models of logarithmically transformed number of individuals or densities as a function of area. Results The census of violets shows that by increasing the survey resolution and by not considering plots without individuals, the effectively occupied area diminishes and a negative density–area relationship arises. The finding that negative density–area relationships are also common for people is evidence that the non-random choice of plots in population surveys of varying areas can be responsible for many observed negative density–area relationships. The shallower slope of the people–administrative area relationship for Switzerland and Finland compared with Italy, as well as for England and the USA compared with Europe, confirms that less than proportionate individuals–area relationships can be the consequence of larger plot areas containing a higher proportion of areas without individuals. Main conclusions Densities should be reported together with the effective areas for which they were estimated. It should be clearly conveyed whether or not plots where the surveyed species was absent were included in the density estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean Basin accounts for more than 10% of the world's vascular plant biodiversity in an area less than 1.5% the size of continental Earth. Forest tree taxa are also exceptionally diverse: more than 100 species have been recorded around the Mediterranean, but less than 30 species can be found in Temperate Europe. This amazing biodiversity was developed over millions of years due to the highly heterogeneous geology and climate of the Mediterranean. Did these factors also affect biodiversity within species, i.e., the genetic diversity of populations? Heterozygosity (the within-population gene diversity), and differentiation (the among-population spatial genetic structure), of neutral genes (isozymes) were used to measure within-species biodiversity in four conifer genera commonly found in the Mediterranean: Abies Mill., Cedrus Trew, Cupressus L., Pinus L. Their within-species biodiversity was significantly higher than that of other conifer species worldwide and did not correspond to expected values in terms of biogeography or levels of endemism. Gene diversity was significantly higher in the Eastern than in the Western Mediterranean Basin, and, surprisingly, was only mildly affected by human impact. A specific post-glacial recolonization model is proposed for the Mediterranean Basin, in which effective glacial refugia are more numerous, and genetic drift is less, than what is proposed for Europe. The within-species approach to biodiversity can help solve taxonomic questions, and when used as an indicator of evolutionary potentials, is an essential component of conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reports that mussel culture in Europe produces about 50% of the annual world-wide harvest of mussels. How the main yields of Atlantic mussels are from Spain, Netherlands and Denmark, while the Mediterranean production predominantly comes from Italy; Stabilization of production in these traditional areas since the 1970s, and the share of Europe in the world production has decreased due to increased production outside Europe; Suggestion that the following factors are important in analysing production status and perspectives; Basing of mussel production on an extensive culture and on natural resources for food, spat and space; How in the main culture areas, production with existing techniques seems to have reached the system's carrying capacity; Suggestion that availability of spat can be an additional limiting factor, particularly in bottom culture; Development of new functions in many traditional mussel culture areas such as recreation and nature conservation, and therefore extension of mussel culture is now also space limited; Planning in Norway of the same expansion of mussel culture that has taken place in Europe such as in Scottish fjords, Ireland and Greece; How further development of sustainable mussel culture in Europe has different requirements for traditional and for new areas; Local productivity and development of markets in new areas find that the main problems are harmful blooms; Finding that culture in traditional areas would benefit from optimization of the system's exploitation capacity, improved spat collection and active participation in coastal zone management; Need for communication with other stakeholders, and exploitation of the mussel stocks within the framework of ecosystem management; How experience with this type of mussel culture is also relevant for development in the new culture areas.

One population of the land snail Arianta arbustorum styriaca (Frauenfeld, 1868), endemic in the Northeastern Alps in Austria, was investigated with regard to population size and density, spatial distribution and movement patterns of the individuals in order to obtain basic information on their population biology. The study was carried out at a site situated about 880 m above sea level in Styria, in the Gesäuse mountains over two years, using the capture–recapture technique. Population density based on the Jolly–Seber model showed variation ranging from 0.12–4.03 individuals/m2 over the whole study period. The recapture rate after one year was generally high (up to 85% per sampling date). In most cases individuals were aggregated. The snails showed a high site fidelity; average calculated minimum areas were 0.115 m2/day. The sum vector of all individual dispersal observations over the entire study period did not indicate a significant preference for any direction. Only during winter was a significant downhill displacement (possibly passive) detected. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are one of the greatest challenges for health policy in all European countries, but the potential for reducing these inequalities is unclear. We therefore quantified the impact of equalizing the distribution of six risk factors for mortality: smoking, overweight, lack of physical exercise, lack of social participation, low income, and economic inactivity. Methods: We collected and harmonized data on mortality and risk factors by educational level for 21 European populations in the early 2000s. The impact of the risk factors on mortality in each educational group was determined using Population Attributable Fractions. We estimated the impact on inequalities in mortality of two scenarios: a theoretical upward levelling scenario in which inequalities in the risk factor were completely eliminated, and a more realistic best practice scenario, in which inequalities in the risk factor were reduced to those seen in the country with the smallest inequalities for that risk factor. Findings: In general, upward levelling of inequalities in smoking, low income and economic inactivity hold the greatest potential for reducing inequalities in mortality. While the importance of low income is similar across Europe, smoking is more important in the North and East, and overweight in the South. On the basis of best practice scenarios the potential for reducing inequalities in mortality is often smaller, but still substantial in many countries for smoking and physical inactivity. Interpretation: Theoretically, there is a great potential for reducing inequalities in mortality in most European countries, for example by equity-oriented tobacco control policies, income redistribution and employment policies. Although it is necessary to achieve substantial degrees of upward levelling to make a notable difference for inequalities in mortality, the existence of best practice countries with more favourable distributions for some of these risk factors suggests that this is feasible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]