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• We projected shifts in ecological supply and consumption patterns among scenarios. • Over one-third of Nepal's districts are at risk of ecological overload by 2030. • Climate change sensitivity and increasing human demands challenge overloaded areas. • Multiple strategies were proposed for Nepal's ecoresource management. As global demand for ecological resources continues to surpass ecosystem capacity, predicting future changes in ecological supply, consumption, and carrying capacity is crucial for informed decision-making regarding sustainable land use and ecological security. This study forecasts ecological carrying states in Nepal, a representative region in the southern Himalayan foothills, from 2020 to 2030. We employ three alternative scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP): SSP2-RCP4.5 (BAU), SSP1-RCP2.6 (TSS) and SSP5-RCP8.5 (SSS). Our findings indicate a continuous rise in ecological consumption, particularly in densely populated tropical areas such as the hilly region (HR) and Terai region (TR). Under the BAU and SSS scenarios, ecological supply decreases rapidly in these regions. Alarmingly, over one-third of Nepal's districts, mainly in central and eastern HR and TR, are projected to experience overloaded ecological carrying states by 2030. Climate change sensitivity and escalating consumption due to improved living standards and population growth pose significant challenges for these regions to reverse ecological deficits. This study offers a scientific foundation for reconciling the conflict between ecological protection and societal demands, facilitating the preservation, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems while striving to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]