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BackgroundIntimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health problem, with serious consequences on women's physical, mental, sexual, and reproductive health, as well as birth outcomes. Women who encounter IPV are more likely to experience adverse birth outcomes such as low birth weight, premature delivery, and stillbirth. Although numerous studies are exploring the association between IPV and adverse birth outcomes, they merely used classical models and could not control for potential confounders. The purpose of this study was to ascertain whether there was a causation between IPV and adverse birth outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using a quasi-experimental statistical technique [i.e., propensity score matching (PSM) analysis].MethodThis study used the most recent (2015–22) Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 20 SSA countries. A total weighted sample of 13,727 women was included in this study. IPV (i.e., sexual, physical, emotional, and at least one form of IPV) was the exposure/treatment variable and adverse birth outcomes (preterm delivery, low birth weight, stillbirth, and macrosomia) were the outcome variables of this study. PSM was employed to estimate the impact of IPV on adverse birth outcomes.ResultsThe average treatment effects (ATE) of sexual, physical, emotional, and at least one form of IPV were 0.031, 0.046, 0.084, and 0.025, respectively. Sexual, physical, emotional, and at least one form of IPV increased adverse birth outcomes by 3.1%, 4.6%, 8.4%, and 2.5%, respectively. Findings from the average treatment effect on treated (ATT) showed that women who experienced sexual, physical, emotional, and at least one form of IPV had an increased risk of adverse birth outcomes by 3.6%, 3.7%, 3.3%, and 3.0%, respectively, among treated groups.ConclusionThis study demonstrates a causal relationship between IPV and adverse birth outcomes in SSA countries, indicating a need for programs and effective interventions to mitigate the impact of IPV during pregnancy to reduce related adverse pregnancy outcomes. Furthermore, we suggest further research that investigates the causal effect of IPV on adverse birth outcomes by incorporating additional proximal variables not observed in this study.

Background: Despite the significant public health burden of maternal mental health disorders in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), limited data are available on their effects on early childhood development (ECD), nutritional status, and child health in the region. Aims: This study investigated the association between maternal mental health and ECD, nutritional status, and common childhood illnesses, while controlling for biological, social, financial, and health-related factors and/or confounders. Method: As part of the Innovative Partnership for Universal and Sustainable Healthcare (i-PUSH) program evaluation study, initiated in November 2019, a cohort of low-income rural families, including pregnant women or women of childbearing age with children under five, was recruited for this study. A total of 24 villages were randomly selected from a list of villages near two health facilities. Following a census to identify eligible households, 10 households per village were randomly selected. Data collection included maternal mental health, assessed using Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale, ECD, nutritional status (anthropometric measurements), and common childhood illnesses, their symptoms, and healthcare utilization. This study presents a cross-sectional analysis of the data drawn from endline survey of 299 target mothers and 315 children. Results: The majority of the mothers were aged between 25 and 34 years. The mean age of children was 3.2 years, with 53% being male. The overall maternal mental health score, as measured by the CES-D scale, was 28. Children of mothers with higher CES-D scores exhibited poorer ECD domains, lower nutritional status indicators, and increased incidence of ill-health in the previous two weeks, in both unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Individual, parental, and household factors—including maternal age, household wealth index, and decision-making regarding child healthcare—were significantly associated with children's development, nutrition status, and health outcomes. Conclusion: Children of mothers with low mental health scores demonstrated suboptimal developmental outcomes, nutritional status, and overall well-being, particularly for those from impoverished households. These findings suggest that improving the socioeconomic conditions of low-income households is essential for promoting children's development, nutritional status, and well-being. Longitudinal studies are needed to further investigate the impact of maternal mental health on child development, nutrition, and health outcomes, considering additional factors across the maternal, newborn, and child health continuum. Trial registration for the parent and nested study: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04068571), AEA Registry (AEARCTR-0006089) and PACTR (PACTR202204635504887). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) of Kenya was upgraded to improve access to healthcare for impoverished households, expand universal health coverage, and boost the uptake of essential reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) services. However, premiums may be unaffordable for the poorest households. The Innovative Partnership for Universal Sustainable Healthcare (i -PUSH) programme targets low-income women and their households to improve their access to and utilization of quality healthcare, including RMNCH services, by providing subsidized, mobile phone-based NHIF coverage in combination with enhanced, digital training of community health volunteers and upgrading of health facilities. This study evaluated whether expanded NHIF coverage increased the accessibility and utilization of quality basic RMNCH services in areas where i -PUSH was implemented using a longitudinal cluster randomized controlled trial in Kakamega, Kenya. A total of 24 pair-matched villages were randomly assigned either to the treatment or the control group. Within each village, 10 eligible households (i.e. with a woman aged 15–49 years who was either pregnant or with a child <4 years old) were randomly selected. The study applied a difference-in-difference methodology based on a pooled cross-sectional analysis of baseline, midline and endline data, with robustness checks based on balanced panels and Analysis of Covariance methods. The analysis sample included 346 women, of whom 248 had had a live birth in the 3 years prior to any of the surveys, and 424 children aged 0–59 months. Improved NHIF coverage did not have a statistically significant impact on any of the RMNCH outcome indicators at midline nor endline. Uptake of RMNCH services, however, improved substantially in both control and treatment areas at endline compared to baseline. For instance, significant increases were observed in the number of antenatal care visits from baseline to midline (mean = 2.62–2.92, P  < 0.01) and delivery with a skilled birth attendant from baseline to midline (mean = 0.91–0.97, P  < 0.01). Expanded NHIF coverage, providing enhanced access to RMNCH services of unlimited duration at both public and private facilities, did not result in an increased uptake of care, in a context where access to basic public RMNCH services was already widespread. However, the positive overall trend in RMNCH utilization indicators, in a period of constrained access due to the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests that the other components of the i -PUSH programme may have been beneficial. Further research is needed to better understand how the provision of insurance, enhanced community health volunteer training and improved healthcare quality interact to ensure pregnant women and young children can make full use of the continuum of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The aim of this paper is analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on the perishable products’ value chain in Ethiopia. As a methodology, both data sources and types: primary and secondary, qualitative and quantitative, were used to achieve the objective of the study under consideration. The primary data sources used in this work is mainly phone survey, expert opinions and judgments based on real situation observation, and that of secondary data were collected through review of materials published on lessons learned from previous pandemics by different reputable sources. Therefore, this work is based on systematically reviewing and retrieving secondary sources through Google search, library plus harvesting and word type searching. The findings of the study revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic cut the full functioning of the value and supply chain of perishable products due to social distance restrictions imposed by the government, fear of the disease, cutoff transportation and even lock-down of market centers. This led to price changes, gross domestic product loss, the start-up of agro-industrial parks was delayed, reduced export and more women become out of work due to their high participation in perishable products’ value chain. To mention, Ethiopia has lost about $25 million—almost 10% of annual revenue—just over $10 million within the horticultural sector and around 50,000 workers lose their jobs—mostly female labourers. Based on the results, the authors forwarded the collective engagement of the concerned bodies to reduce the negative impacts of COVID-19 on perishable products by using the possible mechanism.

Background The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated mitigation policies created a global economic and health crisis of unprecedented depth and scale, raising the estimated prevalence of depression by more than a quarter in high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suffered the negative effects on living standards the most severely. However, the consequences of the pandemic for mental health in LMICs have received less attention. Therefore, this study assesses the association between the COVID-19 crisis and mental health in 8 LMICs. Methods and findings We conducted a prospective cohort study to examine the correlation between the COVID-19 pandemic and mental health in 10 populations from 8 LMICs in Asia, Africa, and South America. The analysis included 21,162 individuals (mean age 38.01 years, 64% female) who were interviewed at least once pre- as well as post-pandemic. The total number of survey waves ranged from 2 to 17 (mean 7.1). Our individual-level primary outcome measure was based on validated screening tools for depression and a weighted index of depression questions, dependent on the sample. Sample-specific estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between COVID-19 periods and mental health were estimated using linear regressions with individual fixed effects, controlling for independent time trends and seasonal variation in mental health where possible. In addition, a regression discontinuity design was used for the samples with multiple surveys conducted just before and after the onset of the pandemic. We aggregated sample-specific coefficients using a random-effects model, distinguishing between estimates for the short (0 to 4 months) and longer term (4+ months). The random-effects aggregation showed that depression symptoms are associated with a increase by 0.29 standard deviations (SDs) (95% CI [−.47, −.11], p-value = 0.002) in the 4 months following the onset of the pandemic. This change was equivalent to moving from the 50th to the 63rd percentile in our median sample. Although aggregate depression is correlated with a decline to 0.21 SD (95% CI [−0.07, −.34], p-value = 0.003) in the period thereafter, the average recovery of 0.07 SD (95% CI [−0.09, .22], p-value = 0.41) was not statistically significant. The observed trends were consistent across countries and robust to alternative specifications. Two limitations of our study are that not all samples are representative of the national population, and the mental health measures differ across samples. Conclusions Controlling for seasonality, we documented a large, significant, negative association of the pandemic on mental health, especially during the early months of lockdown. The magnitude is comparable (but opposite) to the effects of cash transfers and multifaceted antipoverty programs on mental health in LMICs. Absent policy interventions, the pandemic could be associated with a lasting legacy of depression, particularly in settings with limited mental health support services, such as in many LMICs. We also demonstrated that mental health fluctuates with agricultural crop cycles, deteriorating during “lean”, pre-harvest periods and recovering thereafter. Ignoring such seasonal variations in mental health may lead to unreliable inferences about the association between the pandemic and mental health. Nursena Aksunger and colleagues investigate the association between the COVID-19 pandemic and mental health in eight low- and middle-income countries. Author summary Why was this study done? The worldwide economic and health crises triggered by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have had a significant influence on mental health, with the estimated prevalence of depression having increased by more than 25% in high-income countries. Although the adverse consequences of the pandemic on living standards have been most severe in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the consequences of the pandemic for mental health in LMICs have received less attention. What did the researchers do and find? The purpose of this research is to investigate the association between the COVID-19 pandemic and mental health in 8 LMICs in Asia, Africa, and South America. Before and during the pandemic, the mental health of 21,162 individuals (mean age 38.01 years, 64.0% female) was measured using survey data. Our individual-level primary outcome measure was based on validated depression screening instruments and a sample-specific weighted index of depression questions. We found that depression symptoms were associated with a significant increase in the 4 months following the onset of the pandemic (0.29 standard deviations (SDs), 95% confidence interval (CI) [−.47, −.11], p-value = 0.002) and that the average recovery of 0.07 SD was not statistically significant in the subsequent period (95% CI [−0.09, .22], p-value = 0.41). What do these findings mean? We showed a substantial negative correlation between the COVID-19 pandemic and mental health after adjusting for seasonality, suggesting that the pandemic might induce long-term depression, especially in LMICs with poor mental health support facilities. We also provided evidence for seasonal changes in mental health depending on agricultural crop cycle. This seasonality should be considered when examining changes in mental health over time in order to prevent drawing inaccurate conclusions. The observed trends were consistent across countries and robust to alternative analyses, although the study was limited by the fact that not all samples were representative of the national population and the mental health indicators differed among samples.

BackgroundThe lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.ResultsThe estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.ConclusionsIn 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

BackgroundThe lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.ResultsThe estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.ConclusionsIn 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Abstract Background Universal Health Coverage ensures access to quality health services for all, with no financial hardship when accessing the needed services. Nevertheless, access to quality health services is marred by substantial resource shortages creating service delivery gaps in low-and middle-income countries, including Kenya. The Innovative Partnership for Universal Sustainable Healthcare (i-PUSH) program, developed by AMREF Health Africa and PharmAccess Foundation (PAF), aims to empower low-income women of reproductive age and their families through innovative digital tools. This study aims to evaluate the impact of i-PUSH on maternal and child health care utilization, women’s health including their knowledge, behavior, and uptake of respective services, as well as women’s empowerment and financial protection. It also aims to evaluate the impact of the LEAP training tool on empowering and enhancing community health volunteers’ health literacy and to evaluate the impact of the M-TIBA health wallet on savings for health and health insurance uptake. Methods This is a study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial (RCT) study that uses a four-pronged approach—including year-long weekly financial and health diaries interviews, baseline and endline surveys, a qualitative study, and behavioral lab-in-the-field experiments—in Kakemega County, Kenya. In total, 240 households from 24 villages in Kakamega will be followed to capture their health, health knowledge, health-seeking behavior, health expenditures, and enrolment in health insurance over time. Half of the households live in villages randomly assigned to the treatment group where i-PUSH will be implemented after the baseline, while the other half of the households live in control village where i-PUSH will not be implemented until after the endline. The study protocol was reviewed and approved by the AMREF Ethical and Scientific Review Board. Research permits were obtained from the National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovation agency of Kenya. Discussion People in low-and middle-income countries often suffer from high out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures, which, in turn, impede access to quality health services. Saving for healthcare as well as enrolment in health insurance can improve access to healthcare by building capacities at all levels—individuals, families, and communities. Notably, i-PUSH fosters savings for health care through the mobile-phone based “health wallet,” it enhances enrolment in subsidized health insurance through the mobile platform—M-TIBA—developed by PAF, and it seeks to improve health knowledge and behavior through community health volunteers (CHVs) who are trained using the LEAP tool—AMREF’s mHealth platform. The findings will inform stakeholders to formulate better strategies to ensure access to Universal Health Coverage in general, and for a highly vulnerable segment of the population in particular, including low-income mothers and their children. Trial registration Registered with Protocol Registration and Results System (protocol ID: AfricanPHRC; trial ID: NCT04068571 : AEARCTR-0006089 ; date: 29 August 2019) and The American Economic Association’s registry for randomized controlled trials (trial ID: AEARCTR-0006089; date: 26 June 2020).

BackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.MethodsWe used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined.FindingsSince 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks.InterpretationIncreasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.

BackgroundMeasurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).MethodsWe used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate.FindingsThe highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally.InterpretationAt a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundMonitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends.MethodsWe estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016.FindingsThe quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.InterpretationThe past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundThe UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.MethodsWe used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.FindingsGlobally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.InterpretationGBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundAs mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.MethodsWe estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FindingsGlobally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228).InterpretationThe decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

BackgroundThe burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world.ObjectivesThe GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden.MethodsCVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility.ResultsIn 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75.ConclusionsCVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.

Ebisa Turi,1 Dawit Simegnew,2,3 Ginenus Fekadu,4,5 Tadesse Tolossa,1 Markos Desalegn,1 Lami Bayisa,6 Diriba Mulisa,6 Amanuel Abajobir7 1Department of Public Health, Institute of Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia; 2Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Pharmacy, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Bule Hora University, Bule Hora, Ethiopia; 4Department of Pharmacy, Institute of Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia; 5School of Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territory, Hong Kong; 6School of Nursing and Midwifery, Institute of Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia; 7Maternal and Child Wellbeing Unit, African Population and Health Research Centre, Nairobi, KenyaCorrespondence: Ebisa TuriDepartment of Public Health, Institute of Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, EthiopiaTel +251 917686021Fax +251 576617980Email ebakoturi@gmail.comBackground: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is only one part of a successful range of care among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). Stigma and low social support are emerging issues worsening the success of ART for PLWHA. This study thus aimed to investigate the level of perceived stigma among PLWHA.Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Nekemte, western Ethiopia. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify associations between perceived stigma and low social support, depression, and other potential predictor variables using SPSS version 24.0 and adjusted odds ratios (AORs), considering statistical significance at p< 0.05.Results: A total of 418 study participants were included in the study, with a response rate of 100%. About 48.6% of PLWHA had experienced perceived stigma, and more than two-fifths had poor social support. The following factors were associated with perceived stigma among PLWHA: age (18– 29 years) (AOR=4.88, 95% CI:1.76– 13.5), female sex (AOR=2.10, 95% CI 1.15– 3.82), < 12 months on ART (AOR=2.63, 95% CI 1.09– 6.34), depression (AOR=1.86, 95% CI 1.08– 3.19), social support (poor: AOR=3.45, 95% CI 1.65– 7.23; medium: AOR=2.22, 95% CI 1.09– 4.54), and non-disclosure of HIV status (AOR=2.00, 95% CI 1.11– 3.59).Conclusion and Recommendation: The magnitude of perceived stigma among PLWHA was high, highlighting the importance of integrating social and mental health support within standard ART for PLWHA.Keywords: stigma, social support, HIV/AIDS, Nekemte, Ethiopia

BackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.MethodsWe used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).FindingsBetween 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.InterpretationDeclines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Berhanu Alemayehu,1 Getachew Mullu Kassa,1 Yohannes Teka,1 Liknaw Bewket Zeleke,1 Amanuel Alemu Abajobir,2 Addisu Alehegn Alemu1 1College of Health Sciences, Debre Markos University, Debre Mark’os, Ethiopia; 2Maternal and Child Wellbeing Unit, African Population and Health Research Center, Nairobi, KenyaCorrespondence: Addisu Alehegn AlemuCollege of Health Sciences, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, EthiopiaEmail addisua4@gmail.comBackground: Women’s decision-making power influences the use of family planning. It is one of the denied fundamental rights of women, particularly in developing countries. Objective: This study was aimed to assess married women’s decision-making power in the use of family planning and its associated factors among married reproductive age women in Basoliben, Amhara, Ethiopia, 2018.Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among married reproductive age women from March 1 to 30, 2018. A multistage simple random sampling technique was employed in selecting study participants. Data were collected using structured questionnaires and analyzed through SPSS 20 software. The binary and multiple variable logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with women’s decision-making power on family planning use. Statistical significance was declared at p-value less than 0.05.Results: A total of 734 married women aged 18– 49 years are making a 98% response rate included in this study. The level of married women’s decision-making power in family planning among married women was 80%; 95% CI (76.9, 82.8). Monthly income (AOR=2.2; 95% CI: 1.1, 4.2), husband’s desired number of children of < 3 (AOR=9.9; 95% CI: 3.6), husband’s desired time for additional child after 3 years postbirth (AOR=4.0; 95% CI: 1.9, 8.5) and women’s information on any contraceptive (AOR=9.6; 95% CI: 2.4, 39.0) were factors significantly associated with married women’s decision-making power in family planning.Conclusion: Married women’s decision-making power in family planning use was optimal. Household monthly income, husband’s desired ideal number of children, husband’s desired time when to have another child and information about any contraceptive methods were predictors of their decision-making power on family planning use. There should be awareness creation of family planning methods to increase its utilization.Keywords: decision-making, married women, family planning, Amhara, Ethiopia

Ebisa Turi Jambola,1 Abebaw Addis Gelagay,2 Aysheshim Kassahun Belew,3 Amanuel Alemu Abajobir4 1Department of Public Health, Institute of Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia; 2Department of Reproductive Health, Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia; 3Department of Human Nutrition, Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia; 4Maternal and Child Wellbeing Unit, African Population and Health Research Centre, Nairobi, KenyaCorrespondence: Ebisa Turi JambolaDepartment of Public Health, Institute of Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, EthiopiaTel +251917686021Fax +251576617980Email ebakoturi@gmail.comBackground: Women are often forced to recommence sexual intercourse after childbirth to maintain intimacy and fulfill their partners’ desires. Early resumption of postpartum sexual intercourse leads to sexual health problems and unwanted pregnancy if not complemented with appropriate contraceptive use. However, sexual practice during the early postpartum period has received little attention in clinical and research settings. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the early resumption of sexual intercourse and its associated factors among postpartum women attending public health institutions in Nekemte town, Western Ethiopia.Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was carried out from March to April 2019. A systematic random sampling technique was used to select 528 postpartum women. An interviewer-administered, pretested, and structured questionnaire was used to collect data. Data were coded and entered into Epi Info 7.2.1, and exported to SPSS version 20.0 to run bivariable and multivariable logistic regressions.Results: One in five postpartum women (20.2%, 95% CI: 17.1– 23.6) practiced an early resumption of sexual intercourse, of whom three-fifths (58%) did not use any contraceptives. Women’s secondary education (AOR=0.22, 95% CI: 0.07– 0.71), husband’s elementary (AOR=0.23, 95% CI: 0.06– 0.87) and secondary education (AOR=0.25, 95% CI: 0.07– 0.88), as well as women’s fertility status (parity of one) (AOR=3.52, 95% CI: 1.24– 10.01), normal vaginal delivery (AOR=5.44, 95% CI: 1.84– 16.12), giving birth to a male child (AOR=1.94, 95% CI: 1.05– 3.60), desire for another child (AOR=5.71, 95% CI: 1.89– 17.25), and pressure from the husband to initiate intercourse (AOR=9.89, 95% CI: 4.99– 19.58) were significantly associated with early resumption of sexual intercourse.Conclusion: A significant proportion of postpartum women who resume early sexual intercourse do not use any contraceptives. Interventions that focus on strengthening the integration of postpartum sexual health education and service use are warranted.Keywords: early resumption of sexual intercourse, postpartum women, Ethiopia

Ebisa Turi,1 Bedasa Taye Merga,2 Ginenus Fekadu,3 Amanuel Alemu Abajobir4 1Department of Public Health, Institute of Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia; 2School of Public Health, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haromaya University, Harar, Ethiopia; 3Clinical Pharmacy Unit, Department of Pharmacy, Institute of Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia; 4Maternal and Child Wellbeing Unit, African Population and Health Research Centre, Nairobi, KenyaCorrespondence: Ginenus FekaduClinical Pharmacy Unit, Department of Pharmacy, Institute of Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, Oromia, EthiopiaTel +251 917137145Fax +251 57 6617980Email take828pharm@gmail.comBackground: Early sexual initiation – sexual activity that begun earlier than 18 years of age – is among risky sexual behaviors which may be associated with increased risks of adverse outcomes such as sexually transmitted infections (STIs), unwanted pregnancy and unsafe abortions. However, there is no nationally representative evidence on early initiation of sexual intercourse and its determinant factors among adolescent females in Ethiopia.Methods: Data were extracted from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) to assess early initiation of sexual intercourse and factors contributing to it in adolescent females. The analysis included a weighted sample of 3881 adolescent females aged 15– 19 years. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted and the results were presented as adjusted odds ratio (AOR) at 95% confidence interval (CI), declaring statistical significance at a p-value < 0.05 in all analyses.Results: About 1 in 5 (21.9%, 95% CI: 20.5%, 23.33%) adolescent females experienced early sexual debut. Administrative regions (Amhara, AOR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.30, 4.09 and Gambella, AOR = 4.89, CI 95%: 1.08, 22.07), religion (Muslim, AOR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.49), substance use (e.g., ever chewed khat, AOR = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.47, 2.77, ever drunk alcohol, AOR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.35, 2.48) and having no knowledge on family planning (AOR = 4.47, 95% CI: 2.22, 8.99) were found to have statistically significant association with early sexual debut in adolescent females. Whereas any levels of formal education decreased the odds of early sexual debut (primary, AOR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.56; secondary, AOR = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.13, 0.28, and higher, AOR= 0.31, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.63). Similarly, all categories of wealth indices as compared to the poorest were protective of early sexual initiation in adolescent females (AOR = 0.40– 0.57) as was for education as compared to no education (AOR = 0.19– 0.44).Conclusion: A significant proportion of adolescent females initiate early sexual intercourse in Ethiopia and multifaceted factors appear to determine their early sexual experiences. Contextualized interventions including strengthening information, education and communication on adverse consequences of early sexual initiation in regions and improving contraceptive knowledge of teenagers will play a paramount role.Keywords: early initiation of sexual intercourse, female adolescents, EDHS, Ethiopia

Antenatal care (ANC) is one of the most crucial components of maternal health care services. However, less than two-third of pregnant women receive ANC at least once and only 32% had at least 4 ANC visits in Ethiopia. There is dearth of nationally representative data that indicate changes in utilization of ANC services at the end of health sector transformation plan I period (HSTP I) in the country. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate utilization of ANC the effect of socio-economic inequities and regional disparities in Ethiopia. The 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey data were used. A total of 5753 women in the reproductive age who gave live births in the five years preceding the survey were used for this study. Multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with ANC booking. This study indicated that 74% women had at least one ANC visit during their last pregnancy of which four out of ten did not receive the recommended 4+ visits. The proportion of women who had late ANC booking (i.e., first ANC visit to health facility after 4 months of pregnancy) was found to be 32% and significant disparities were observed across regions. Rural residency (adjusted OR (AOR): 1.62, 95% CI (1.28, 2.05)), being wealth (AOR: 0.69, 95% CI (0.55, 0.85)), education (AOR: 0.25, 95% CI (0.15, 0.40)) and being grand multi-parity (AOR: 1.35, 95% CI (1.005, 1.83)) were significantly associated with late ANC booking. ANC services utilization is far behind its targets and the proportion of pregnant women entering ANC late is high. It is necessary to intensify efforts to raise awareness about the need of early ANC initiation, particularly in rural areas.

Abstract Objective Although Ethiopia has been implementing Option B+ program, LTFU of women from the Option B+ program is one of the challenges that minimizes its implementation. Thus, this study assessed the incidence and predictors of LTFU among women under Option B+ PMTCT program in western Ethiopia. An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted. A cox proportional hazards regression model was fitted to identify predictors of LTFU. A Hazard ratios with 95% confidence CI was computed and all predictors that were associated with the outcome variable at p-value ≤ 0.05 in the multivariable cox proportional hazards were declared as a significance predictor of the outcome. Results A total of 330 women were followed for a mean follow up time of 16.9 (± 7.6) months. An overall incidence rate of LTFU was 9/1000 person-months. Women’s educational status, residence, HIV-disclosure status, the status of women at enrollment, previous history of HIV and ART adherence were significant predictors of LTFU. The incidence of LTFU from Option B+ PMTCT is lower as compared to evidence from sub-Saharan African and strengthening linkage and referral system between clinics as well as establishing appropriates tracing mechanisms would retain pregnant women in the program.

Abstract Background Diabetes and its complications including foot ulcer constitute a global public health challenge attributing to a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Foot ulcer is one of the long-term complication of diabetes mellitus which lead to infection and amputation of lower extremities. In Ethiopia, findings from few studies were inconsistent and there is a need to systematically pool existing data to determine the magnitude of foot ulcer in diabetics and factors contributing to it. Methods We identified articles through electronic databases such as Medline, Hinari, Pub Med, Cochrane library, the Web of Science and Google Scholar. Accordingly, we identified 95 published and one unpublished article. Finally, eleven studies which fullfilled eligibility criteria were included in final systematic review and meta-analysis. Data were extracted using a standardized data extraction checklist and the analyses were conducted using STATA version 14. The Cochrane Q test statistic and I 2 tests were used to assess heterogeneity. Results The overall magnitude of foot ulcer was 12.98% (95%CI: 7.81–18.15) in diabetic patients in Ethiopia. Sub-group analyses revealed highest prevalence in Addis Ababa (19.31% (95%CI: 2.7. 41.37)). Foot ulcer was significantly associated with rural residence (OR = 2.72, 95%, CI: 1.84–4.01)), presence of callus on the feet ((OR = 12.67, 95%, CI: 6.47–24.79)), a body mass index of ≥24.5 ((OR = 2.68, 95%, CI: 1.58–4.56)), poor self- care practice ((OR = 1.47, 95%CI: 1.25–1.73)), type I diabetes mellitus ((OR = 0.42, 95%, CI: 0.22–0.79)), staying with DM for

Abstract Background Anemia is a common problem in HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infected patients, and is associated with decreased functional capacity and quality of life. Ethiopia is one of the countries which has expanded highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) over the past years. The effect of HAART on anemia among HIV remains inconsistent and inconclusive, particularly in children. This study thus aimed to synthesize the prevalence of anemia among HIV infected Ethiopian children and its association with HAART initiation. Methods MEDLINE/PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Web of Science and Google scholar were used to identify 12 eligible studies reporting an association between anemia and HIV using a priori set criteria. PRISMA guideline was used to systematically review and meta-analysis these studies. Details of sample size, magnitude of effect sizes, including odds ratio (OR) and standard errors were extracted. Random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled estimates using STATA/SE version-14. I2 and meta-bias statistics assessed heterogeneity and publication bias of the included studies. Sub-group analyses, based on study designs, were also carried out. Results In Ethiopia, the overall prevalence of anemia in HIV infected children was 22.3% (95% CI: 18.5–26.0%). The OR of anemia-HIV/AIDS comorbidity was 0.4 (95% CI, 0.2–0.5) in HAART initiated children as compared to non-initiated counterparts. Meta-bias and funnel plot detected no publication bias. Conclusion On aggregate, anemia is a common comorbidity in pediatric HIV patients. HAART was significantly associated with a reduced anemia-HIV/AIDS comorbidity. Prompt start of HAART might help decreasing the prevalence of anemia and its subsequent complications.

Abstract Objectives To assess the prevalence of antenatal depression and factors associated with antenatal depression among pregnant women in Aneded woreda, Northwest Ethiopia, 2019. A community based- cross sectional study was conducted in Aneded woreda among 7 kebles’ of North-West, Ethiopia from March 16 to April 23, 2019. A total of 342 pregnant women were recruited using simple random sampling. Result The prevalence of antenatal depression was 15.20%. Urban residence [AOR = 6.8; 95% CI (1.97, 23.32)], marital status of being unmarried [AOR = 5.1; 95% CI (1.79, 14.63)], occupation of being government employee [AOR = 8.8; 95% CI (2.06, 37.12)] and merchant [AOR = 3.7; 95% CI (1.27, 10.91)], prim gravid [AOR = 5.3; 95% CI (2.03, 13.82)], not attend ANC follow up [AOR = 8.7; 95% CI (3.46, 21.79)], intimate partner violence [AOR = 4.5; 95% CI (1.28, 15.52)], unplanned pregnancy [AOR = 6.2; 95% CI (2.37, 16.06)], and substance use [AOR = 5.6; 95% CI (2.12, 14.92)] were significantly factors. Strengthen the risk prevention activities so important to tackle the problem of antenatal depression.

Abstract Background Severe forms of malnutrition have drastic effects on childhood morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan countries, including Ethiopia. Although few studies have previously estimated treatment outcomes of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in Ethiopia, the findings were widely varied and inconsistent. This study thus aimed to pool estimates of treatment outcomes and identify predictors of mortality among children with SAM in Ethiopia. Methods A systematic review was carried out to select 21 eligible articles from identified 1013 studies (dating from 2000 to 2018) that estimated treatment outcomes and predictors of mortality among SAM children. Databases including PubMed, CINHAL, Web of Sciences; Cochrane, Psych INFO and Google Scholar were comprehensively reviewed using medical subject headings (MESH) and a priori set criteria PRISMA guideline was used to systematically review and meta-analyze eligible studies. Details of sample size, magnitude of effect sizes, including Hazard Ratio (HRs) and standard errors were extracted. Random-effects model was used to calculate pooled estimates in Stata/se version-14. Cochran’s Q, I2, and meta-bias statistics were assessed for heterogeneity and Egger’s test for publication bias. Result Twenty-one studies were included in the final analysis, which comprised 8057 under-five children with SAM in Ethiopia. The pooled estimates of treatment outcomes, in terms of death, recovery, defaulter and transfer out and non-response rates were 10.3% (95% CI: 8.3, 12.3), 70.5% (95% CI: 65.7, 72.2), 13.8% (95% CI: 10.8, 16.9) and 5.1% (95% CI: 3.3, 6.9), respectively. Diarrhea (HR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1, 2.2), dehydration (HR: 3.1, 95% CI: 2.3, 4.2) and anemia (HR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.5, 3.3) were statistically significant predictors of mortality among these children. No publication bias was detected. Conclusion Treatment outcomes in under-five children with SAM are lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) standard, where mortality is being predicted by comorbidities at admission. Children with SAM need to be treated for diarrhea, dehydration and anemia at the primary point of care to reduce mortality.

Abstract Background In low resource circumstances, non-adherence for available health services is a major cause of inefficiency in health care delivery. MHealth has been projected as a possible solution to support women during pregnancy, birth and puerperium period, to increase the uptake of essential maternal services. Objectives This systematic review and meta-analysis study was aimed to determine the effectiveness of short message services (SMS)on Focused Antenatal Care (FANC) visits and the attendance of skilled birth professionals in Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs). Methods We searched a broad body of literature from electronic databases–Cochrane review, CINAHL, PsycINFO, PubMed and Google Scholar to collect comprehensive evidence on the role of SMS on FANC visits and skilled birth attendance. We extracted data from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) only. Meta-analyses were conducted using random-effects models with inverse variance method in Review Manager (RevMan) computer software. Qualities of the included studies were determined by GRADEpro, and risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool. Results Of the 1224 non-duplicated articles screened, only 7 RCT studies representing 8324 participants met eligibility criteria and included in this synthesis. On aggregate, there were statistically significant associations in experimental group in that pregnant mothers who received text messaging had a 174% increase in FANC visits (OR = 2.74 (95% CI: 1.41, 5.32) and 82% in skilled birth attendance (OR = 1.82 (95% CI; 1.33, 2.49). The I2 test result indicated high heterogeneity I2 = 78% (P

Abstract Background Globally, approximately 19 million children under 5 years are suffering from Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). It is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries including Ethiopia. However, little is known regarding predictors of mortality among these children in Ethiopia. The current study aimed to assess the potential predictors of mortality among under-five children with SAM admitted to a stabilization center. Method A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 527 under-five children who were admitted for SAM at the University of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital from 2014 to 2016. Data were collected from a randomly selected chart after getting ethical clearance. Data were cleaned, coded and entered to Epi-info (version 7) and analyzed using STATA (version14). The outcome was computed by using tables and graphs. A multivariable cox proportional hazards model was fitted to identify predictors of mortality. Result Overall, the median follow-up period was 10 days with interquartile range (Q1, Q3: 8, 17). At the end of the follow-up, the mortality rate was 66(12.52%). Anemia (AHR(Adjusted Hazard Ratio): 2.3, 95% CI: 1.2, 4.5), Shock (AHR: 7.9, 95% CI: 3.7, 16.7), no intake of antibiotics (AHR: 2.3 95% CI: 1.2, 4.4), IV-Fluid (AHR: 3.2, 95% CI: 1.7, 5.8), no intake of F75 (AHR: 6.6,95% CI: 2.9, 14.7) and no intake of F100 (AHR: 3, 95% CI: 1.6, 5.4) were independent predictors of mortality. Conclusion The survival status of under-five children with SAM was lower than the national standard protocol. Altered general conditions such as shock, anemia, not adhering to medical and nutritional therapies were identified as predictors of mortality among SAM children. Health education on early medical seeking behavior and adherence on the routine regimens may improve this gap in child survival.

Abstract Objective This systematic review and meta-analysis was undertaken to estimate the prevalence of tuberculosis in diabetic patients and to determine the effect of cigarette smoking. Results A total of 15 studies was included in the meta-analysis. The pooled overall prevalence of tuberculosis in diabetes was 4.72% (95% CI 3.62–5.83%). In sub-group analyses, the prevalence was 5.13% (95% CI 4.34–5.92%) in Africa, followed by 4.16% (95% CI 2.9–5.4%) in Asia. The odd ratio of tuberculosis among diabetes patients was 7.6 (95% CI 1.46–39) in cigarette smokers as compared to nonsmokers. Publication bias was detected based on graphic asymmetry of fun-nel plots, Begg’s and Egger’s tests (p

Abstract Background In Ethiopia there is no complete registration system to measure disease burden and risk factors accurately. In this study, the 2015 global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors (GBD) data were used to analyse the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. Methods GBD 2015 used verbal autopsy surveys, reports, and published scientific articles to estimate the burden of malaria in Ethiopia. Age and gender-specific causes of death for malaria were estimated using cause of death ensemble modelling. Results The number of new cases of malaria declined from 2.8 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1.4–4.5 million] in 1990 to 621,345 (95% UI 462,230–797,442) in 2015. Malaria caused an estimated 30,323 deaths (95% UI 11,533.3–61,215.3) in 1990 and 1561 deaths (95% UI 752.8–2660.5) in 2015, a 94.8% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rate of malaria has declined by 96.5% between 1990 and 2015 with an annual rate of change of 13.4%. Age-standardized malaria incidence rate among all ages and gender declined by 88.7% between 1990 and 2015. The number of disability-adjusted life years lost (DALY) due to malaria decreased from 2.2 million (95% UI 0.76–4.7 million) in 1990 to 0.18 million (95% UI 0.12–0.26 million) in 2015, with a total reduction 91.7%. Similarly, age-standardized DALY rate declined by 94.8% during the same period. Conclusions Ethiopia has achieved a 50% reduction target of malaria of the millennium development goals. The country should strengthen its malaria control and treatment strategies to achieve the sustainable development goals.

BackgroundMore than 29 million that is an estimated 5%, under-five children suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) globally, with a nine times higher risk of mortality than that of well-nourished children. However, little is known regarding outcomes and predictors of SAM in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aims to determine treatment cure rate and its predictors among children aged 6-59 months with SAM admitted to a stabilization center.MethodologyA retrospective record review was employed in SAM children at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital (UOGCSH) from 2014 to 2016. SAM defined as weight for height below -3 z scores of the median World Health Organization (WHO) growth standards or presence of bilateral edema or mid upper arm circumference < 115mm for a child ≥6months age. All SAM patients with medical complication(s) or failure to pass appetite test are admitted to the malnutrition treatment center for inpatient follow-up. Data were extracted from a randomly selected records after getting ethical clearance. Data were cleaned, coded and entered to Epi-info version-7, and analyzed using STATA/se version-14. Descriptive statistics and analytic analyses schemes including bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards model were conducted.ResultAmong a total of 416 records recruited for this study, 288 (69.2%) SAM children were cured at the end of the follow up, with a median cure time of 11 days. Kwash-dermatosis (AHR (Adjusted Hazard Ratio): 1.48(95% CI: 1.01, 2.16)), anemia (AHR: 1.36(95% CI: 1.07, 1.74)), tuberculosis (AHR: 1.6(95% CI: 1.04, 2.43)) and altered body temperature at admission (AHR: 1.58(95% CI: 1.04, 2.4) were independent predictors of time to cure.ConclusionThe cure rate in SAM children was low relative to sphere standard guideline. Prognosis of SAM largely depends on the presence of other comorbidities at admission. Available intervention modalities need to address coexisting morbidities to achieve better outcomes in SAM children.

INTRODUCTION: Survival is low among non-treated patients. The time to survive after ART initiation has not been adequately studied. Thus, this study was aimed to determine survival status and associated factors among HIV positive adults on antiretroviral treatment in Debre Markos Referral Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: Facility-based retrospective cohort study design was conducted from September to February 2013. Data were collected from 640 patients' registration card in Debre Markos Referral Hospital who enrolled for treatment from 2005 to 2013. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Log-Rank test were used to compare the survival times of different groups of patients. RESULTS: A total of 640 patients followed for median of 58 months and 261 patients died during the follow up period. Over all estimated mean survival times of patients was 65.22 (95%CI: 61.409-69.043) months after initiation of treatment. Baseline hemoglobin 10g/mm3, (AHR=1.869, 95%CI: 1.319-2.649), baseline ambulatory functional status (AHR=2.727, 95%CI: 1.905-3.905), bedridden functional status (AHR=2.382, 95%CI: 1.326-4.279), baseline WHO staging III and IV (AHR=2.164, 95%CI: 1.101-4.258), recent ART adherence (AHR: 2.169, 95%CI: 1.030-4.567) and fair adherence (AHR=1.887, 95%CI: 1.081-3.295) were associated with survival of the patients. CONCLUSION: The Kaplan-Meier results showed that the general mean estimated survival time of patients after Highly Active Anti Retroviral Therapy (HAART) initiation was improved. But low baseline hemoglobin, ill-health functional status, poor ART adherence were negatively associated with lesser survival of patients.