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Extended human presence beyond low-Earth orbit (BLEO) during missions to the Moon and Mars will pose significant challenges in the near future. A primary health risk associated with these missions is radiation exposure, primarily from galatic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar proton events (SPEs). While GCRs present a more consistent, albeit modulated threat, SPEs are harder to predict and can deliver acute doses over short periods. Currently NASA utilizes analytical tools for monitoring the space radiation environment in order to make decisions of immediate action to shelter astronauts. However this reactive approach could be significantly enhanced by predictive models that can forecast radiation exposure in advance, ideally hours ahead of major events, while providing estimates of prediction uncertainty to improve decision-making. In this work we present a machine learning approach for forecasting radiation exposure in BLEO using multimodal time-series data including direct solar imagery from Solar Dynamics Observatory, X-ray flux measurements from GOES missions, and radiation dose measurements from the BioSentinel satellite that was launched as part of Artemis~1 mission. To our knowledge, this is the first time full-disk solar imagery has been used to forecast radiation exposure. We demonstrate that our model can predict the onset of increased radiation due to an SPE event, as well as the radiation decay profile after an event has occurred.

Characterizing exoplanetary atmospheres via Bayesian retrievals requires assuming some chemistry model, such as thermochemical equilibrium or parameterized abundances. The higher-resolution data offered by upcoming telescopes enables more complex chemistry models within retrieval frameworks. Yet, many chemistry codes that model more complex processes like photochemistry and vertical transport are computationally expensive, and directly incorporating them into a 1D retrieval model can result in prohibitively long execution times. Additionally, phase-curve observations with upcoming telescopes motivate 2D and 3D retrieval models, further exacerbating the lengthy runtime for retrieval frameworks with complex chemistry models. Here, we compare thermochemical equilibrium approximation methods based on their speed and accuracy with respect to a Gibbs energy-minimization code. We find that, while all methods offer orders of magnitude reductions in computational cost, neural network surrogate models perform more accurately than the other approaches considered, achieving a median absolute dex error <0.03 for the phase space considered. While our results are based on a 1D chemistry model, our study suggests that higher dimensional chemistry models could be incorporated into retrieval models via this surrogate modeling approach., Comment: 22 pages, 14 figures, submitted to PSJ 2022/11/22, revised 2023/3/7, accepted 2023/3/23. Updated to add Zenodo link to Reproducible Research Compendium

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), a NASA multi-spectral decade-long mission that has been daily producing terabytes of observational data from the Sun, has been recently used as a use-case to demonstrate the potential of machine learning methodologies and to pave the way for future deep-space mission planning. In particular, the idea of using image-to-image translation to virtually produce extreme ultra-violet channels has been proposed in several recent studies, as a way to both enhance missions with less available channels and to alleviate the challenges due to the low downlink rate in deep space. This paper investigates the potential and the limitations of such a deep learning approach by focusing on the permutation of four channels and an encoder--decoder based architecture, with particular attention to how morphological traits and brightness of the solar surface affect the neural network predictions. In this work we want to answer the question: can synthetic images of the solar corona produced via image-to-image translation be used for scientific studies of the Sun? The analysis highlights that the neural network produces high-quality images over three orders of magnitude in count rate (pixel intensity) and can generally reproduce the covariance across channels within a 1% error. However the model performance drastically diminishes in correspondence of extremely high energetic events like flares, and we argue that the reason is related to the rareness of such events posing a challenge to model training., Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures. To be published on ApJ (submitted on Feb 21st, accepted on July 28th)

Atmospheric retrieval determines the properties of an atmosphere based on its measured spectrum. The low signal-to-noise ratio of exoplanet observations require a Bayesian approach to determine posterior probability distributions of each model parameter, given observed spectra. This inference is computationally expensive, as it requires many executions of a costly radiative transfer (RT) simulation for each set of sampled model parameters. Machine learning (ML) has recently been shown to provide a significant reduction in runtime for retrievals, mainly by training inverse ML models that predict parameter distributions, given observed spectra, albeit with reduced posterior accuracy. Here we present a novel approach to retrieval by training a forward ML surrogate model that predicts spectra given model parameters, providing a fast approximate RT simulation that can be used in a conventional Bayesian retrieval framework without significant loss of accuracy. We demonstrate our method on the emission spectrum of HD 189733 b and find good agreement with a traditional retrieval from the Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) code (Bhattacharyya coefficients of 0.9843--0.9972, with a mean of 0.9925, between 1D marginalized posteriors). This accuracy comes while still offering significant speed enhancements over traditional RT, albeit not as much as ML methods with lower posterior accuracy. Our method is ~9x faster per parallel chain than BART when run on an AMD EPYC 7402P central processing unit (CPU). Neural-network computation using an NVIDIA Titan Xp graphics processing unit is 90--180x faster per chain than BART on that CPU., Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PSJ 3/4/2020, revised 1/22/2021, accepted 2/4/2021, published 4/25/2022. Updated to match the published manuscript. Himes et al. 2022, PSJ, 3, 91

Understanding and monitoring the complex and dynamic processes of the Sun is important for a number of human activities on Earth and in space. For this reason, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) has been continuously monitoring the multi-layered Sun's atmosphere in high-resolution since its launch in 2010, generating terabytes of observational data every day. The synergy between machine learning and this enormous amount of data has the potential, still largely unexploited, to advance our understanding of the Sun and extend the capabilities of heliophysics missions. In the present work, we show that deep learning applied to SDO data can be successfully used to create a high-fidelity virtual telescope that generates synthetic observations of the solar corona by image translation. Towards this end we developed a deep neural network, structured as an encoder-decoder with skip connections (U-Net), that reconstructs the Sun's image of one instrument channel given temporally aligned images in three other channels. The approach we present has the potential to reduce the telemetry needs of SDO, enhance the capabilities of missions that have less observing channels, and transform the concept development of future missions., Comment: 5 pages, 6 figures, Accepted at the NeurIPS 2019 Workshop ML4PS

As a part of NASA's Heliophysics System Observatory (HSO) fleet of satellites,the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) has continuously monitored the Sun since2010. Ultraviolet (UV) and Extreme UV (EUV) instruments in orbit, such asSDO's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) instrument, suffer time-dependent degradation which reduces instrument sensitivity. Accurate calibration for (E)UV instruments currently depends on periodic sounding rockets, which are infrequent and not practical for heliophysics missions in deep space. In the present work, we develop a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) that auto-calibrates SDO/AIA channels and corrects sensitivity degradation by exploiting spatial patterns in multi-wavelength observations to arrive at a self-calibration of (E)UV imaging instruments. Our results remove a major impediment to developing future HSOmissions of the same scientific caliber as SDO but in deep space, able to observe the Sun from more vantage points than just SDO's current geosynchronous orbit.This approach can be adopted to perform autocalibration of other imaging systems exhibiting similar forms of degradation, Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, Accepted at NeurIPS 2019 Workshop ML4PS

Over the past decade, the study of extrasolar planets has evolved rapidly from plain detection and identification to comprehensive categorization and characterization of exoplanet systems and their atmospheres. Atmospheric retrieval, the inverse modeling technique used to determine an exoplanetary atmosphere's temperature structure and composition from an observed spectrum, is both time-consuming and compute-intensive, requiring complex algorithms that compare thousands to millions of atmospheric models to the observational data to find the most probable values and associated uncertainties for each model parameter. For rocky, terrestrial planets, the retrieved atmospheric composition can give insight into the surface fluxes of gaseous species necessary to maintain the stability of that atmosphere, which may in turn provide insight into the geological and/or biological processes active on the planet. These atmospheres contain many molecules, some of them biosignatures, spectral fingerprints indicative of biological activity, which will become observable with the next generation of telescopes. Runtimes of traditional retrieval models scale with the number of model parameters, so as more molecular species are considered, runtimes can become prohibitively long. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) and computer vision offer new ways to reduce the time to perform a retrieval by orders of magnitude, given a sufficient data set to train with. Here we present an ML-based retrieval framework called Intelligent exoplaNet Atmospheric RetrievAl (INARA) that consists of a Bayesian deep learning model for retrieval and a data set of 3,000,000 synthetic rocky exoplanetary spectra generated using the NASA Planetary Spectrum Generator. Our work represents the first ML retrieval model for rocky, terrestrial exoplanets and the first synthetic data set of terrestrial spectra generated at this scale., Comment: Third workshop on Bayesian Deep Learning (NeurIPS 2018), Montreal, Canada

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference in the family of probabilistic models implicitly defined by stochastic generative models of data. In scientific fields ranging from population biology to cosmology, low-level mechanistic components are composed to create complex generative models. These models lead to intractable likelihoods and are typically non-differentiable, which poses challenges for traditional approaches to inference. We extend previous work in "inference compilation", which combines universal probabilistic programming and deep learning methods, to large-scale scientific simulators, and introduce a C++ based probabilistic programming library called CPProb. We successfully use CPProb to interface with SHERPA, a large code-base used in particle physics. Here we describe the technical innovations realized and planned for this library., Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures

We introduce a general method for improving the convergence rate of gradient-based optimizers that is easy to implement and works well in practice. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in a range of optimization problems by applying it to stochastic gradient descent, stochastic gradient descent with Nesterov momentum, and Adam, showing that it significantly reduces the need for the manual tuning of the initial learning rate for these commonly used algorithms. Our method works by dynamically updating the learning rate during optimization using the gradient with respect to the learning rate of the update rule itself. Computing this "hypergradient" needs little additional computation, requires only one extra copy of the original gradient to be stored in memory, and relies upon nothing more than what is provided by reverse-mode automatic differentiation., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures

We draw a formal connection between using synthetic training data to optimize neural network parameters and approximate, Bayesian, model-based reasoning. In particular, training a neural network using synthetic data can be viewed as learning a proposal distribution generator for approximate inference in the synthetic-data generative model. We demonstrate this connection in a recognition task where we develop a novel Captcha-breaking architecture and train it using synthetic data, demonstrating both state-of-the-art performance and a way of computing task-specific posterior uncertainty. Using a neural network trained this way, we also demonstrate successful breaking of real-world Captchas currently used by Facebook and Wikipedia. Reasoning from these empirical results and drawing connections with Bayesian modeling, we discuss the robustness of synthetic data results and suggest important considerations for ensuring good neural network generalization when training with synthetic data., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures

We introduce a method for using deep neural networks to amortize the cost of inference in models from the family induced by universal probabilistic programming languages, establishing a framework that combines the strengths of probabilistic programming and deep learning methods. We call what we do "compilation of inference" because our method transforms a denotational specification of an inference problem in the form of a probabilistic program written in a universal programming language into a trained neural network denoted in a neural network specification language. When at test time this neural network is fed observational data and executed, it performs approximate inference in the original model specified by the probabilistic program. Our training objective and learning procedure are designed to allow the trained neural network to be used as a proposal distribution in a sequential importance sampling inference engine. We illustrate our method on mixture models and Captcha solving and show significant speedups in the efficiency of inference., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures

In this paper we introduce DiffSharp, an automatic differentiation (AD) library designed with machine learning in mind. AD is a family of techniques that evaluate derivatives at machine precision with only a small constant factor of overhead, by systematically applying the chain rule of calculus at the elementary operator level. DiffSharp aims to make an extensive array of AD techniques available, in convenient form, to the machine learning community. These including arbitrary nesting of forward/reverse AD operations, AD with linear algebra primitives, and a functional API that emphasizes the use of higher-order functions and composition. The library exposes this functionality through an API that provides gradients, Hessians, Jacobians, directional derivatives, and matrix-free Hessian- and Jacobian-vector products. Bearing the performance requirements of the latest machine learning techniques in mind, the underlying computations are run through a high-performance BLAS/LAPACK backend, using OpenBLAS by default. GPU support is currently being implemented., Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, minor fixes, added coauthor

Derivatives, mostly in the form of gradients and Hessians, are ubiquitous in machine learning. Automatic differentiation (AD), also called algorithmic differentiation or simply "autodiff", is a family of techniques similar to but more general than backpropagation for efficiently and accurately evaluating derivatives of numeric functions expressed as computer programs. AD is a small but established field with applications in areas including computational fluid dynamics, atmospheric sciences, and engineering design optimization. Until very recently, the fields of machine learning and AD have largely been unaware of each other and, in some cases, have independently discovered each other's results. Despite its relevance, general-purpose AD has been missing from the machine learning toolbox, a situation slowly changing with its ongoing adoption under the names "dynamic computational graphs" and "differentiable programming". We survey the intersection of AD and machine learning, cover applications where AD has direct relevance, and address the main implementation techniques. By precisely defining the main differentiation techniques and their interrelationships, we aim to bring clarity to the usage of the terms "autodiff", "automatic differentiation", and "symbolic differentiation" as these are encountered more and more in machine learning settings., Comment: 43 pages, 5 figures

We present the results of our analysis of publication venues for papers on automatic differentiation (AD), covering academic journals and conference proceedings. Our data are collected from the AD publications database maintained by the autodiff.org community website. The database is purpose-built for the AD field and is expanding via submissions by AD researchers. Therefore, it provides a relatively noise-free list of publications relating to the field. However, it does include noise in the form of variant spellings of journal and conference names. We handle this by manually correcting and merging these variants under the official names of corresponding venues. We also share the raw data we get after these corrections., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures

We introduce a novel evolutionary algorithm (EA) with a semantic network-based representation. For enabling this, we establish new formulations of EA variation operators, crossover and mutation, that we adapt to work on semantic networks. The algorithm employs commonsense reasoning to ensure all operations preserve the meaningfulness of the networks, using ConceptNet and WordNet knowledge bases. The algorithm can be interpreted as a novel memetic algorithm (MA), given that (1) individuals represent pieces of information that undergo evolution, as in the original sense of memetics as it was introduced by Dawkins; and (2) this is different from existing MA, where the word "memetic" has been used as a synonym for local refinement after global optimization. For evaluating the approach, we introduce an analogical similarity-based fitness measure that is computed through structure mapping. This setup enables the open-ended generation of networks analogous to a given base network., Comment: 20 pages, 14 figures, revision after reviews, changed title

Automatic differentiation---the mechanical transformation of numeric computer programs to calculate derivatives efficiently and accurately---dates to the origin of the computer age. Reverse mode automatic differentiation both antedates and generalizes the method of backwards propagation of errors used in machine learning. Despite this, practitioners in a variety of fields, including machine learning, have been little influenced by automatic differentiation, and make scant use of available tools. Here we review the technique of automatic differentiation, describe its two main modes, and explain how it can benefit machine learning practitioners. To reach the widest possible audience our treatment assumes only elementary differential calculus, and does not assume any knowledge of linear algebra., Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure

There are many studies dealing with the protection or restoration of wetlands and the sustainable economic growth of cities as separate subjects. This study investigates the conflict between the two in an area where city growth is threatening a protected wetland area. We develop a stochastic cellular automaton model for urban growth and apply it to the Vecht area surrounding the city of Hilversum in the Netherlands, using topographic maps covering the past 150 years. We investigate the dependence of the urban growth pattern on the values associated with the protected wetland and other types of landscape surrounding the city. The conflict between city growth and wetland protection is projected to occur before 2035, assuming full protection of the wetland. Our results also show that a milder protection policy, allowing some of the wetland to be sacrificed, could be beneficial for maintaining other valuable landscapes. This insight would be difficult to achieve by other analytical means. We conclude that even slight changes in usage priorities of landscapes can significantly affect the landscape distribution in near future. Our results also point to the importance of a protection policy to take the value of surrounding landscapes and the dynamic nature of urban areas into account., Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures

Analogy plays an important role in creativity, and is extensively used in science as well as art. In this paper we introduce a technique for the automated generation of cross-domain analogies based on a novel evolutionary algorithm (EA). Unlike existing work in computational analogy-making restricted to creating analogies between two given cases, our approach, for a given case, is capable of creating an analogy along with the novel analogous case itself. Our algorithm is based on the concept of "memes", which are units of culture, or knowledge, undergoing variation and selection under a fitness measure, and represents evolving pieces of knowledge as semantic networks. Using a fitness function based on Gentner's structure mapping theory of analogies, we demonstrate the feasibility of spontaneously generating semantic networks that are analogous to a given base network., Comment: Conference submission, International Conference on Computational Creativity 2012 (8 pages, 6 figures)

This paper presents a new type of evolutionary algorithm (EA) based on the concept of "meme", where the individuals forming the population are represented by semantic networks and the fitness measure is defined as a function of the represented knowledge. Our work can be classified as a novel memetic algorithm (MA), given that (1) it is the units of culture, or information, that are undergoing variation, transmission, and selection, very close to the original sense of memetics as it was introduced by Dawkins; and (2) this is different from existing MA, where the idea of memetics has been utilized as a means of local refinement by individual learning after classical global sampling of EA. The individual pieces of information are represented as simple semantic networks that are directed graphs of concepts and binary relations, going through variation by memetic versions of operators such as crossover and mutation, which utilize knowledge from commonsense knowledge bases. In evaluating this introductory work, as an interesting fitness measure, we focus on using the structure mapping theory of analogical reasoning from psychology to evolve pieces of information that are analogous to a given base information. Considering other possible fitness measures, the proposed representation and algorithm can serve as a computational tool for modeling memetic theories of knowledge, such as evolutionary epistemology and cultural selection theory., Comment: Conference submission, 2012 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (8 pages, 7 figures)

Mediation is an important method in dispute resolution. We implement a case based reasoning approach to mediation integrating analogical and commonsense reasoning components that allow an artificial mediation agent to satisfy requirements expected from a human mediator, in particular: utilizing experience with cases in different domains; and structurally transforming the set of issues for a better solution. We utilize a case structure based on ontologies reflecting the perceptions of the parties in dispute. The analogical reasoning component, employing the Structure Mapping Theory from psychology, provides a flexibility to respond innovatively in unusual circumstances, in contrast with conventional approaches confined into specialized problem domains. We aim to build a mediation case base incorporating real world instances ranging from interpersonal or intergroup disputes to international conflicts., Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures; updated copyright notice

Central pattern generators (CPGs), with a basis is neurophysiological studies, are a type of neural network for the generation of rhythmic motion. While CPGs are being increasingly used in robot control, most applications are hand-tuned for a specific task and it is acknowledged in the field that generic methods and design principles for creating individual networks for a given task are lacking. This study presents an approach where the connectivity and oscillatory parameters of a CPG network are determined by an evolutionary algorithm with fitness evaluations in a realistic simulation with accurate physics. We apply this technique to a five-link planar walking mechanism to demonstrate its feasibility and performance. In addition, to see whether results from simulation can be acceptably transferred to real robot hardware, the best evolved CPG network is also tested on a real mechanism. Our results also confirm that the biologically inspired CPG model is well suited for legged locomotion, since a diverse manifestation of networks have been observed to succeed in fitness simulations during evolution., Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures; substantial revision of content, organization, and quantitative results