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Summary: Phenotypic plasticity describes a genotype's ability to produce different phenotypes in response to different environments. Breeding crops that exhibit appropriate levels of plasticity for future climates will be crucial to meeting global demand, but knowledge of the critical environmental factors is limited to a handful of well‐studied major crops.Using 727 maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids phenotyped for grain yield in 45 environments, we investigated the ability of a genetic algorithm and two other methods to identify environmental determinants of grain yield from a large set of candidate environmental variables constructed using minimal assumptions.The genetic algorithm identified pre‐ and postanthesis maximum temperature, mid‐season solar radiation, and whole season net evapotranspiration as the four most important variables from a candidate set of 9150. Importantly, these four variables are supported by previous literature. After calculating reaction norms for each environmental variable, candidate genes were identified and gene annotations investigated to demonstrate how this method can generate insights into phenotypic plasticity.The genetic algorithm successfully identified known environmental determinants of hybrid maize grain yield. This demonstrates that the methodology could be applied to other less well‐studied phenotypes and crops to improve understanding of phenotypic plasticity and facilitate breeding crops for future climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating pasture biomass has emerged as a promising avenue to assist farmers in identifying the best cutting times for maximizing biomass yield using satellite data. This study aims to develop an innovative framework integrating field and satellite data to estimate aboveground biomass in alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) at farm scale. For this purpose, samples were collected throughout the 2022 growing season on different mowing dates at three fields in Kansas, USA. The satellite data employed comprised four sources: Sentinel-2, PlanetScope, Planet Fusion, and Biomass Proxy. A grid of hyperparameters was created to establish different combinations and select the best coefficients. The permutation feature importance technique revealed that the Planet's PlanetScope near-infrared (NIR) band and the Biomass Proxy product were the predictive features with the highest contribution to the biomass prediction model's. A Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) was applied to explore its ability to build a predictive model. Its performance was assessed via statistical metrics (r2: 0.61; RMSE: 0.29 kg.m−2). Additionally, uncertainty quantifications were proposed with this framework to assess the range of error in the predictions. In conclusion, this integration in a nonparametric approach achieved a useful predicting tool with the potential to optimize farmers' management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meeting demand for food, fiber, feed, and fuel in a world with 9.7 billion people by 2050 without negative environmental impact is the greatest scientific challenge facing humanity. We hypothesize that this challenge can only be met with current and emerging technologies if guided by proactive use of a broad array of relevant data and geospatial scaling approaches to ensure local to global relevance for setting research priorities and implementing agricultural systems responsive to real-time status of weather, soils, crops, and markets. Despite increasing availability of field-scale agricultural data, robust spatial frameworks are lacking to convert these data into actionable knowledge. This commentary article highlights this knowledge gap and calls attention to the need for developing robust spatial frameworks that allow appropriate scaling to larger spatial domains by discussing a recently developed example of a data-driven strategy for estimating yield gaps of agricultural systems. To fully leverage research on sustainable intensification of cropping systems and inform policy development at different scales, we call for new approaches combining the strengths of top-down and bottom-up approaches which will require coordinated efforts between field scientists, crop modelers, and geospatial researchers at an unprecedented level.

Accurate identification of crop phenology timing is crucial for agriculture. While remote sensing tracks vegetation changes, linking these to ground-measured crop growth stages remains challenging. Existing methods offer broad overviews but fail to capture detailed phenological changes, which can be partially related to the temporal resolution of the remote sensing datasets used. The availability of higher-frequency observations, obtained by combining sensors and gap-filling, offers the possibility to capture more subtle changes in crop development, some of which can be relevant for management decisions. One such dataset is Planet Fusion, daily analysis-ready data obtained by integrating PlanetScope imagery with public satellite sensor sources such as Sentinel-2 and Landsat. This study introduces a novel method utilizing Dynamic Time Warping applied to Planet Fusion imagery for maize phenology detection, to evaluate its effectiveness across 70 micro-stages. Unlike singular template approaches, this method preserves critical data patterns, enhancing prediction accuracy and mitigating labeling issues. During the experiments, eight commonly employed spectral indices were investigated as inputs. The method achieves high prediction accuracy, with 90% of predictions falling within a 10-day error margin, evaluated based on over 3200 observations from 208 fields. To understand the potential advantage of Planet Fusion, a comparative analysis was performed using Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 data. Planet Fusion outperforms Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2, with significant improvements observed in key phenological stages such as V4, R1, and late R5. Finally, this study showcases the method's transferability across continents and years, although additional field data are required for further validation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop simulation models are used at the field scale to estimate crop yield potential, optimize current management, and benchmark input-use efficiency. At issue is the ability of crop models to predict local and regional actual yield and total production without need of site-year specific calibration of internal parameters associated with fundamental physiological processes. In this study, a well-validated maize simulation model was used to estimate yield potential for 45 locations across the U.S. Corn Belt, including both irrigated and rainfed environments, during four years (2011–2014) that encompassed diverse weather conditions. Simulations were based on measured weather data, dominant soil properties, and key management practices at each location (including sowing date, hybrid maturity, and plant density). The same set of internal model parameters were used across all site-years. Simulated yields were upscaled from locations to larger spatial domains (county, agricultural district, state, and region), following a bottom-up approach based on a climate zone scheme and distribution of maize harvested area. Simulated yields were compared against actual yields reported at each spatial level, both in absolute terms as well as deviations from long-term averages. Similar comparisons were performed for total maize production, estimated as the product of simulated yields and official statistics on maize harvested area in each year. At county-level, the relationship between simulated and actual yield was better described by a curvilinear model, with decreasing agreement at higher yields (>12Mgha−1). Comparison of actual and simulated yield anomalies, as estimated from the yearly yield deviations from the long-term actual and simulated average yield, indicated a linear relationship at county-level. In both cases (absolute yields and yield anomalies comparisons), the agreement increased with increasing spatial aggregation (from county to region). An approach based on long-term actual and simulated yields and year-specific simulated yield allowed estimation of actual yield with a high degree of accuracy at county level (RMSE≤18%), even in years with highly favorable weather or severe drought. Estimates of total production, which are of greatest interest to buyers and sellers in the market, were also in close agreement with actual production (RMSE≤22%). The approach proposed here to estimate yield and production can complement other approaches that rely on surveys, field crop cuttings, and empirical statistical methods and serve as basis for in-season yield and production forecasts.