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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data-products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gases inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries’ climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021, suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.9 % (4.1 % to 5.7 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra- tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2020; Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, 2018a, 2016, 2015b, 2015a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

In this acute intervention study, we investigated the potential benefit of ketone supplementation in humans by studying cardiac phosphocreatine to adenosine-triphosphate ratios (PCr/ATP) and skeletal muscle PCr recovery using phosphorus magnetic resonance spectroscopy (31P-MRS) before and after ingestion of a ketone ester drink. We recruited 28 healthy individuals: 12 aged 23-70 years for cardiac 31P-MRS, and 16 aged 60-75 years for skeletal muscle 31P-MRS. Baseline and post-intervention resting cardiac and dynamic skeletal muscle 31P-MRS scans were performed in one visit, where 25 g of the ketone monoester, deltaG®, was administered after the baseline scan. Administration was timed so that post-intervention 31P-MRS would take place 30 min after deltaG® ingestion. The deltaG® ketone drink was well-tolerated by all participants. In participants who provided blood samples, post-intervention blood glucose, lactate and non-esterified fatty acid concentrations decreased significantly (-28.8%, p ≪ 0.001; -28.2%, p = 0.02; and -49.1%, p ≪ 0.001, respectively), while levels of the ketone body D-beta-hydroxybutyrate significantly increased from mean (standard deviation) 0.7 (0.3) to 4.0 (1.1) mmol/L after 30 min (p ≪ 0.001). There were no significant changes in cardiac PCr/ATP or skeletal muscle metabolic parameters between baseline and post-intervention. Acute ketone supplementation caused mild ketosis in blood, with drops in glucose, lactate, and free fatty acids; however, such changes were not associated with changes in 31P-MRS measures in the heart or in skeletal muscle. Future work may focus on the effect of longer-term ketone supplementation on tissue energetics in groups with compromised mitochondrial function., This study was funded by a combination of seed funding awarded to D.C. by Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, and funding from TdeltaS., Ltd. L.V is a Sir Henry Dale Fellow supported jointly by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Academy (#221805/Z/20/Z), and he also acknowledges the support of the Slovak Grant Agencies VEGA (#2/0003/20) and APVV (#19-0032). A.I.S. was supported by The Austrian Science Fund (FWF) Schrödinger Fellowship (J 4043). C.T.R. is funded by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (#098436/Z/12/B) and acknowledges support from the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC-1215-20014). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. J.E. was funded by the Medical Research Council.

In this acute intervention study, we investigated the potential benefit of ketone supplementation in humans by studying cardiac phosphocreatine to adenosine-triphosphate ratios (PCr/ATP) and skeletal muscle PCr recovery using phosphorus magnetic resonance spectroscopy (

Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emissions during forced confinements. Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of –4% (–2 to –7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of –7% (–3 to –13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO2 emissions path for decades.