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In linguistic decision theory, multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) of linguistic neutrosophic numbers (LNNs) is one of the crucial research topics. Existing LNN aggregation algorithms do not consider trigonometric periodicity. In this case, they cannot perform MAGDM problems including periodic/multitemporal applications in LNN scenarios. To fill this gap, this article aims to present a MAGDM technique using the LNN tangent Dombi aggregation operators (TDAOs) for addressing MAGDM issues including multitemporal/periodic applications in LNN scenarios. First, we present the linguistic tangent Dombi t-norm and t-conorm and the LNN tangent Dombi operation laws. Second, we propose the LNN tangent Dombi weighted average and geometric operators and investigate their properties. Third, a MAGDM technique is built based on the two presented operators to tackle MAGDM problems in a LNN scenario. Lastly, the built MAGDM technique is applied to a choice of new energy design schemes in Ningbo City, China, and then its efficiency and appropriateness are verified by comparing with the existing MAGDM technique in the LNN scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines problems in decision theory where the number of alternatives and states of nature are finite. Previous studies have defined the concept of "the value of perfect information for the problem" (VPIP). This metric allows us to obtain an upper bound on the amount a decision-maker would be willing to pay for perfect information under the specific conditions of a problem. This bound is particularly important when the decision is unrepeatable, providing a more accurately adjusted measure than the one traditionally obtained with "the expected value of perfect information" (EVPI). Supported by linear programming, this work proposes a sensitivity analysis of these bounds by seeking to identify the intervals in which the problem values can vary without essentially modifying the structure of the problem. Specifically, the study aims to determine how this variation might affect the EVPI and VPIP bounds, as well as the difference in the price a decision-maker would be willing to pay for perfect information if any of the problem values were altered. By identifying alternatives and scenarios taking into account the role they play in the problem, this research classifies the data involved in a finite decision problem to ensure the conclusions can be understood as generally as possible. Although the proposed sensitivity analysis is applied to the oil-drilling problem, a classic in decision theory, the conclusions of this work have potential applications in improving environmental decision-making processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractBayesian clustering typically relies on mixture models, with each component interpreted as a different cluster. After defining a prior for the component parameters and weights, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used to produce samples from the posterior distribution of the component labels. The data are then clustered by minimizing the expectation of a clustering loss function that favors similarity to the component labels. Unfortunately, although these approaches are routinely implemented, clustering results are highly sensitive to kernel misspecification. For example, if Gaussian kernels are used but the true density of data within a cluster is even slightly non-Gaussian, then clusters will be broken into multiple Gaussian components. To address this problem, we develop Fusing of Localized Densities (FOLD), a novel clustering method that melds components together using the posterior of the kernels. FOLD has a fully Bayesian decision theoretic justification, naturally leads to uncertainty quantification, can be easily implemented as an add-on to MCMC algorithms for mixtures, and favors a small number of distinct clusters. We provide theoretical support for FOLD including clustering optimality under kernel misspecification. In simulated experiments and real data, FOLD outperforms competitors by minimizing the number of clusters while inferring meaningful group structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, single and multi-objective robust optimization of a microgrid (MG) including photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine (WT) sources with battery storage has been performed in a radial 33-bus distribution network considering uncertainty risk for minimizing the cost of energy losses, cost of electricity purchase from the post as well as power purchase from the MG. The problem is implemented in two approaches without uncertainty (deterministic) and with uncertainty (robust) via a flow direct algorithm (FDA). In the deterministic approach, the variables such as the site and the optimal size of the equipments in the short-term study horizon of 24 h, as well as the total cost, have been determined that the results of the MG deterministic optimization in the network indicate the reduction of network losses with the total cost minimization. The superior capability of the recommended deterministic approach based on the FDA is also confirmed in comparison with GA and PSO algorithms. In addition, the MG optimization problem with the robust approach with the information gap decision theory (IGDT) with risk-averse strategy is implemented to achieve the maximum radius of uncertainty (MRU) of renewable production and also network demand in three single and multi-objective cases. Based on the proposed robust approach, the level of system robustness has been determined in the condition of the worst uncertainty scenario against forecasting errors by considering different uncertainty budgets. It is also determined which uncertain parameter is more sensitive to the changes of the uncertainty budget. The findings demonstrated that in the multi-objective robust optimization, the constraints of the problem are not satisfied for budgets more than 40%, and in for sample the system uncertainty budget of 5%, there is a 27.51% decrease in resource production and a 0.87% increase in network load. The 40% uncertainty budget of the system is robust with a 16.80% decrease in resource generation and a 19.10% increase in network load. Therefore, one of the benefits of multi-objective optimization in comparison with single-objective optimization is balancing the sensitivity of uncertain parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comprehensive model for cyber security risk assessment using the PIPRECIA-S method within decision theory, which enables organizations to systematically identify, assess and prioritize key cyber threats. The study focuses on the evaluation of malware, ransomware, phishing and DDoS attacks, using criteria such as severity of impact, financial losses, ease of detection and prevention, impact on reputation and system recovery. This approach facilitates decision making, as it enables the flexible adaptation of the risk assessment to the specific needs of an organization. The PIPRECIA-S model has proven to be useful for identifying the most critical threats, with a special emphasis on ransomware and DDoS attacks, which represent the most significant risks to businesses. This model provides a framework for making informed and strategic decisions to reduce risk and strengthen cyber security, which are critical in a digital environment where threats become more and more sophisticated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measuring and analyzing both nonlinear-distortion and linear-reflection otoacoustic emissions (OAEs) combined creates what we have termed a "joint-OAE profile." Here, we test whether these two classes of emissions have different sensitivities to hearing loss and whether our joint-OAE profile can detect mild-moderate hearing loss better than conventional OAE protocols have. 2f1-f2 distortion-product OAEs and stimulus-frequency OAEs were evoked with rapidly sweeping tones in 300 normal and impaired ears. Metrics included OAE amplitude for fixed-level stimuli as well as slope and compression features derived from OAE input/output functions. Results show that mild-moderate hearing loss impacts distortion and reflection emissions differently. Clinical decision theory was applied using OAE metrics to classify all ears as either normal-hearing or hearing-impaired. Our best OAE classifiers achieved 90% or better hit rates (with false positive rates of 5%–10%) for mild hearing loss, across a nearly five-octave range. In summary, results suggest that distortion and reflection emissions have distinct sensitivities to hearing loss, which supports the use of a joint-OAE approach for diagnosis. Results also indicate that analyzing both reflection and distortion OAEs together to detect mild hearing loss produces outstanding accuracy across the frequency range, exceeding that achieved by conventional OAE protocols. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision theory requires agents to assign probabilities to states of the world and utilities to the possible outcomes of different actions. When agents commit to having the probabilities and/or utilities in a decision problem defined by objective features of the world, they may find themselves unable to decide which actions maximize expected utility. Decision theory has long recognized that work-around strategies are available in special cases; this is where dominance reasoning, minimax, and maximin play a role. Here we describe a different work around, wherein a rational decision about one decision problem can be reached by “interpolating” information from another problem that the agent believes has already been rationally solved.

Neutrosophic sets are effectual logic represented to understand ambiguous and inconsistent information. They are frequently used to explain many types of partial or incomplete information. Researchers have given much attention to the decision-making theory and its associated methodologies based on uncertain linguistic factors. This article emphasizes the novel neutrosophic number approximations to handle linguistic variables and their application in multiple-attribute decision-making. Different approximation techniques are introduced in neutrosophic sets, but substantial data loss may occur. Hence, a hexagonal neutrosophic number was proposed to deal with information loss during approximation. Also, the comparison study with existing techniques is explored to show the effectiveness of the proposed approximation. The expected interval criterion was retained although an approximation was made to give more desirable features. An MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) problem is presented to demonstrate efficiency and simplicity with uncertain parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Private and public megaprojects—whether new plant facilities, IT systems, railways, or the Olympics—frequently entail dramatic cost and schedule overruns. Root causes are behavioral biases, such as optimism and deliberate deception, accompanied by principal–agent issues and a lack of project-related skills. Through a three-stage process—forecasting, organizing, and executing ("FOX")—we organize and offer solutions to mitigate the cognitive biases and agency issues planners and policy-makers face in large projects. Following the FOX process and building on behavioral decision theory, we review evidence for the accuracy of "reference-class forecasting," which considers comparable past projects to forecast a current, planned project. We provide evidence for reference-class forecasting performance and recent methodological extensions, such as similarity-based forecasting. Then, considering the relevant literature, we offer organizational solutions to reduce unfounded optimism and deception, including debiasing techniques and specific measures to curb principal–agent issues. Finally, we suggest combining a project modular design with speedy implementation for faster, better, cheaper, and lower-risk execution. Overall, we offer an original, holistic theoretical view that addresses both behavioral and strategic elements of how to debias large projects, along with direct practical implications and advice for those who manage megaprojects with increasingly high stakes and risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Covid-19 pandemic generated uncertainty among consumers, a slowdown in consumption and an increase of the added saving at world level, the microeconomic evidence showed a tendency towards dissaving and growing consumption. These variations activate questioning about the consequences of confinement in intertemporal consumption, at the same time they allow to provide new empirical evidence about life-cycle models in their standard or neoclassical and behavioral versions. The purpose of this work was to experimentally evaluate the intertemporal consumption patterns from the postulates of both life cycle models. To this end, an experimental simulation exercise of online purchases of commodities was carried out with the participation of 210 consumers who were subjected to treatments that included a baseline, income increase scenarios and no-income withdrawal scenarios. The results verified the existence of consistent responses with the behavioral model in 85% of the cases and with the standard model for the remaining 15%; that is, the tendencies to smooth consumption and increase savings were in the minority in the group evaluated and the confinement context did not translate into more self-controlled intertemporal consumption behaviors.

A standard practice in statistical hypothesis testing is to mention the P-value alongside the accept/reject decision. We show the advantages of mentioning an e-value instead. With P-values, it is not clear how to use an extreme observation (e.g. P << α) for getting better frequentist decisions. With e-values it is straightforward, since they provide Type-I risk control in a generalized Neyman-Pearson setting with the decision task (a general loss function) determined post hoc, after observation of the data--thereby providing a handle on "roving α's." When Type-II risks are taken into consideration, the only admissible decision rules in the post hoc setting turn out to be e-value-based. Similarly, if the loss incurred when specifying a faulty confidence interval is not fixed in advance, standard confidence intervals and distributions may fail, whereas e-confidence sets and e-posteriors still provide valid risk guarantees. Sufficiently powerful e-values have by now been developed for a range of classical testing problems. We discuss the main challenges for wider development and deployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about species' locations can influence what happens to them—from supporting habitat protection to exposing poaching targets. Debate about releasing locations when new species are found highlights the trade‐off between the risk of loss and the benefits of funding and public support. No research so far has collected data on how such decisions are made, and no decision tools easily compare a range of decision‐making scenarios. Here, we present a method to compare the costs and benefits of decisions about the disclosure of information about newly discovered species and populations. We implement our method for seven species where information is completely or partially secret. We ask decision‐makers to estimate the costs and benefits associated with these case studies and apply our method. Results show a range of implications from choices that are always better, to others that depend on risk attitude, and demonstrate that the process of decision‐making can be transparent and easily communicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do we remember the past, and plan the future? We introduce a toy model in which to investigate emergent time asymmetries: the causal multibaker maps. These are reversible discrete-time dynamical systems with configurable causal interactions. Imposing a suitable initial condition or "Past Hypothesis", and then coarse-graining, yields a Pearlean locally causal structure. While it is more common to speculate that the other arrows of time arise from the thermodynamic arrow, our model instead takes the causal arrow as fundamental. From it, we obtain the thermodynamic and epistemic arrows of time. The epistemic arrow concerns records, which we define to be systems that encode the state of another system at another time, regardless of the latter system's dynamics. Such records exist of the past, but not of the future. We close with informal discussions of the evolutionary and agential arrows of time, and their relevance to decision theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prescriptive analytics plays an important role in decision making in smart factories by utilizing the available data to gain actionable insights. The planning, integration and development of such use cases still poses manifold challenges. Use cases are still being implemented as standalone versions; the existing IT-infrastructure is not fit for integrative bidirectional decision communication, and implementations only reach low technical readiness levels. We propose a reference architecture for the integration of prescriptive analytics use cases in smart factories. The method for the empirically grounded development of reference architectures by Galster and Avgeriou serves as a blueprint. Through the development and validation of a specific IoT-Factory use case, we demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed reference architecture. We expand the given reference architecture for one use case to the integration of a smart factory and its application to multiple use cases. Moreover, we identify the interdependency among multiple use cases within dynamic environments. Our prescriptive reference architecture provides a structured way to improve operational efficiency and optimize resource allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the high-proportion hydropower market, the fairness of the execution of traded electricity and clean energy consumption are two issues that need to be considered in medium- and long-term dispatching. Aiming at the fairness of medium- and long-term optimal dispatching of hydropower-dominated grids and the problem of water abandonment in the power market environment, this paper proposes a medium- and long-term optimal dispatching method for hydropower-dominated grids based on the information gap decision-making theory (IGDT). Firstly, IGDT is used to establish a two-layer model of medium- and long-term optimal dispatching that considers runoff uncertainty, in which the lower layer solves the maximum value of the maximum difference in the contract power completion rate of the power stations, and the upper layer solves the maximum fluctuation range of the interval inflow. Then, a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP)-based single-layer optimization model is obtained through a variety of linearization techniques, and the model is solved via the CPLEX solver (version 12.10.0). The medium- and long-term optimal dispatching of 10 thermal power stations and 22 hydropower stations in Yunnan Power Grid, China, is taken as an example to verify the proposed model. The results show that the maximum difference in the contracted electricity completion rate of each power station is 0.412, and the amount of abandoned hydropower is reduced by 81.33% compared to when the abandoned water penalty function is not considered. It is proved that the proposed model can effectively alleviate the problems of excessive power generation, insufficient power generation and large-scale hydropower abandonment, which are of great significance for realizing the fair dispatching of hydropower-dominated power grids and promoting clean energy consumption in the market environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nikk Effingham and Huw Price argue that in certain cases of Newcomb problems involving time travel and foreknowledge, being given information about the future makes it rational to choose as an evidential decision theorist would choose. Although the cases they consider have some intuitive pull, and so appear to aid in answering the question of what it is rational to do, we argue that their respective positions are not compelling. Newcomb problems are structured such that whichever way one chooses, one might be led by one's preferred decision theory to miss out on some riches (riches which others obtain whilst employing their preferred decision theory). According to the novel aesthetic diagnosis we shall offer of the Newcomb dialectic, missing out in this way does not render one irrational but, rather, subject to being seen as absurd. This is a different kind of cost but not one that undermines one's rationality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a novel approach for the optimization of genomic parental selection in breeding programs involving categorical and continuous–categorical multi-trait mixtures (CMs and CCMMs). Utilizing the Bayesian decision theory (BDT) and latent trait models within a multivariate normal distribution framework, we address the complexities of selecting new parental lines across ordinal and continuous traits for breeding. Our methodology enhances precision and flexibility in genetic selection, validated through extensive simulations. This unified approach presents significant potential for the advancement of genetic improvements in diverse breeding contexts, underscoring the importance of integrating both categorical and continuous traits in genomic selection frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, high levels of output stochasticity in renewable energy and inefficient electrolyzer operation plague IESs when combined with hydrogen energy. To address the aforementioned issues, an IGDT-based economic scheduling strategy for integrated energy systems is put forth. Firstly, this strategy establishes an IES consisting of coupled electricity, heat, hydrogen, and gas taking the hydrogen production electrolyzer's thermal energy utilization into account. Second, to minimize the system's overall operating costs, a deterministic scheduling model of the IES is built by taking into account the stepped carbon trading mechanism and the integrated demand response. Lastly, an optimal dispatch model is built using the information gap decision theory under the two strategies of risk aversion and risk seeking, taking into account the uncertainty of renewable energy generation. CPLEX is the solver used to solve the proposed model. After taking into account the effective use of thermal energy from the electrolyzer and loads demand response, the results show that the system carbon emission is reduced by 2597.68 kg and the operating cost is lowered by 44.65%. The IES scheduling model based on IGDT can effectively manage costs while maintaining system risk control, all while accommodating decision-makers' varying risk preferences. This study can provide a useful reference for the research related to the scheduling of the IES low-carbon economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Power Generation Technology is the property of Power Generation Technology Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In today’s complex and developing world, making accurate and timely decisions is very important for both managers and investors. The progress in the financial field, the invention of new financial methods and tools and the introduction of various software packages indicate the fact that in developed and developing economies, relying on traditional decision-making methods doesn’t meet the needs of investors due to market requirements and competition to catch the opportunities among investors, especially institutional investors active in the real sector of the economy. The real option is a systematic approach in which economic modelling can be done using financial theory, economic analysis, operations research, decision theory, and statistical science. The present study was conducted to identify the components of the real option to choose in knowledge enterprises. The research was done with a qualitative approach. In the qualitative section, the components of real options to choose from in knowledge enterprises were identified through interviews and qualitative content analysis methods. The statistical population in this section included university specialists and experts, managers of knowledge enterprises and competent individuals with executive positions in those companies who have executive experience at decision-making levels. The sample size was obtained by purposive sampling equal to 12 people. Based on the results of the qualitative section, 10 main components and 63 sub-components were recognized to identify real options. After identifying the components, the axial category, including two real options: the abandonment option and expansion option, was identified by experts. These two options were valued for 15 knowledge enterprises by the Black-Scholes model. The results showed that the exercise of real options in knowledge enterprises optimizes the value of the company. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an optimisation framework is presented for planning a stand-alone microgrid for supplying EV charging (EVC) stations as a design and modelling approach for the FEVER (future electric vehicle energy networks supporting renewables) project. The main problem of the microgrid capacity sizing is making a compromise between the planning cost and providing the EV charging load with a renewable generation-based system. Hence, obtaining the optimal capacity for the microgrid components in order to acquire the desired level of reliability at minimum cost can be challenging. The proposed planning scheme specifies the size of the renewable generation and battery energy storage systems not only to maintain the generation–load balance but also to minimise the capital cost (CAPEX) and operational expenditures (OPEX). To study the impact of renewable generation and EV charging uncertainties, the information gap decision theory (IGDT) is used to include risk-averse (RA) and opportunity-seeking (OS) strategies in the planning optimisation framework. The simulations indicate that the planning scheme can acquire the global optimal solution for the capacity of each element and for a certain level of reliability or obtain the global optimal level of reliability in addition to the capacities to maximise the net present value (NPV) of the system. The total planning cost changes in the range of GBP 79,773 to GBP 131,428 when the expected energy not supplied (EENS) changes in the interval of 10 to 1%. The optimiser plans PV generation systems in the interval of 50 to 63 kW and battery energy storage system in the interval of 130 to 280 kWh and with trivial capacities of wind turbine generation. The results also show that by increasing the total cost according to an uncertainty budget, the uncertainties caused by EV charging load and PV generation can be managed according to a robustness radius. Furthermore, by adopting an opportunity-seeking strategy, the total planning cost can be decreased proportional to the variations in these uncertain parameters within an opportuneness radius. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A central goal of modern evidence-based medicine is the development of simple and easy to use tools that help clinicians integrate quantitative information into medical decision-making. The Bayesian Pre-test/Post-test Probability (BPP) framework is arguably the most well known of such tools and provides a formal approach to quantify diagnostic uncertainty given the result of a medical test or the presence of a clinical sign. Yet, clinical decision-making goes beyond quantifying diagnostic uncertainty and requires that that uncertainty be balanced against the various costs and benefits associated with each possible decision. Despite increasing attention in recent years, simple and flexible approaches to quantitative clinical decision-making have remained elusive. Methods: We extend the BPP framework using concepts of Bayesian Decision Theory. By integrating cost, we can expand the BPP framework to allow for clinical decision-making. Results: We develop a simple quantitative framework for binary clinical decisions (e.g., action/inaction, treat/no-treat, test/no-test). Let p be the pre-test or post-test probability that a patient has disease. We show that r ∗ = (1 - p) / p represents a critical value called a decision boundary. In terms of the relative cost of under- to over-acting, r ∗ represents the critical value at which action and inaction are equally optimal. We demonstrate how this decision boundary can be used at the bedside through case studies and as a research tool through a reanalysis of a recent study which found widespread misestimation of pre-test and post-test probabilities among clinicians. Conclusions: Our approach is so simple that it should be thought of as a core, yet previously overlooked, part of the BPP framework. Unlike prior approaches to quantitative clinical decision-making, our approach requires little more than a hand-held calculator, is applicable in almost any setting where the BPP framework can be used, and excels in situations where the costs and benefits associated with a particular decision are patient-specific and difficult to quantify. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human decision making is accompanied by a sense of confidence. According to Bayesian decision theory, confidence reflects the learned probability of making a correct response, given available data (e.g., accumulated stimulus evidence and response time). Although optimal, independently learning these probabilities for all possible data combinations is computationally intractable. Here, we describe a novel model of confidence implementing a low-dimensional approximation of this optimal yet intractable solution. This model allows efficient estimation of confidence, while at the same time accounting for idiosyncrasies, different kinds of biases and deviation from the optimal probability correct. Our model dissociates confidence biases resulting from the estimate of the reliability of evidence by individuals (captured by parameter α), from confidence biases resulting from general stimulus independent under and overconfidence (captured by parameter β). We provide empirical evidence that this model accurately fits both choice data (accuracy, response time) and trial-by-trial confidence ratings simultaneously. Finally, we test and empirically validate two novel predictions of the model, namely that 1) changes in confidence can be independent of performance and 2) selectively manipulating each parameter of our model leads to distinct patterns of confidence judgments. As a tractable and flexible account of the computation of confidence, our model offers a clear framework to interpret and further resolve different forms of confidence biases. Author summary: Mathematical and computational work has shown that in order to optimize decision making, humans and other adaptive agents must compute confidence in their perception and actions. Currently, it remains unknown how this confidence is computed. We demonstrate how humans can approximate confidence in a tractable manner. Our computational model makes novel predictions about when confidence will be biased (e.g., over- or underconfidence due to selective environmental feedback). We empirically tested these predictions in a novel experimental paradigm, by providing continuous model-based feedback. We observed that different feedback manipulations elicited distinct patterns of confidence judgments, in ways predicted by the model. Overall, we offer a framework to both interpret optimal confidence and resolve confidence biases that characterize several psychiatric disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Zhejiang Electric Power is the property of Zhejiang Electric Power Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Attacks launched from IoT networks can cause significant damage to critical network systems and services. IoT networks may contain a large volume of devices. Protecting these devices from being abused to launch traffic amplification attacks is critical. The manufacturer usage description (MUD) architecture uses pre-defined stateless access control rules to allow or block specific network traffic without stateful communication inspection. This can lead to false negative filtering of malicious traffic, as the MUD architecture does not include the monitoring of communication states to determine which connections to allow through. This study presents a novel solution, the enhanced profiling assurance (EPA) architecture. It incorporates both stateless and stateful communication inspection, a unique approach that enhances the detection effectiveness of the MUD architecture. EPA contains layered intrusion detection and prevention systems to monitor stateful and stateless communication. It adopts three-way decision theory with three outcomes: allow, deny, and uncertain. Packets that are marked as uncertain must be continuously monitored to determine access permission. Our analysis, conducted with two network scenarios, demonstrates the superiority of the EPA over the MUD architecture in detecting malicious activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid growth of the digital economy, data centers have emerged as significant consumers of electricity. This presents challenges due to their high energy demand but also brings opportunities for utilizing waste heat. This paper introduces an operation optimization method for multi-energy systems with data centers, leveraging the information gap decision theory (IGDT) to consider various uncertainties from data requests and the environment. First, a model is established for the operation of a multi-energy system within data centers, considering the integration of server waste heat recovery technology. Second, IGDT is employed to address uncertainties of photovoltaic output and data load requests, thereby formulating an optimal energy management strategy for the data center park. Case studies demonstrate that the electricity purchase cost increased by 5.3%, but the total cost decreased by 30.4%, amounting to 5.17 thousand USD after optimization. It indicates that the operational strategy effectively ensures both efficient and cost-effective power supply for the data center and the park. Moreover, it successfully mitigates the risks associated with fluctuations in data load, thus minimizing the possibility of data load abandonment during uncertain periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision science emphasizes necessary elements required for robust decision‐making. By incorporating decision science principles, frameworks, and tools, it has been demonstrated that decision‐makers can increase the chances of achieving conservation aims. Setting measurable objectives, clearly documenting assumptions about the impact of available actions on a specific threat or problem, explicitly considering constraints, exploring and characterizing uncertainty, and structured deliberation on trade‐offs have been identified as key elements of successful decision‐making. We quantify the extent to which these five elements were utilized in published examples of decision making in conservation in both academic and conservation practice between 2009 and 2018. We found that less than 50% of identified examples included all five elements, with differences in the degree of decision science applied across five commonly used decision support approaches: adaptive management (AM), systematic conservation planning (SCP), structured decision making (SDM), multi‐criteria decision analysis, and cost‐effectiveness analysis. Example applications that utilized the SDM framework were limited in numbers but used on average more than 50% of the five key elements we considered. Although SCP and AM constituted the majority of examples, they were more prevalent in academic studies rather than management applications. SCP and AM examples were widespread in protected area planning, threat abatement, and restoration. Strong geographic bias exists in documented conservation activities that deploy all five decision science elements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hot dry rock (HDR) is regarded as a promising resource of geothermal energy and becomes an important field for future geothermal development due to its advantages of high temperature, wide distribution and huge reserves. At present, HDR research is mainly focused on the modeling and efficiency evaluation of power generation cycle, but its relationship with the source side of the system has not been considered in the field of integrated energy systems. Therefore, this paper proposes a day‐ahead scheduling method for regional integrated energy systems (RIES) with HDR based on information gap decision theory (IGDT). First, the heat transfer system model of HDR is established according to the energy flow model and basic structure of the HDR enhanced geothermal system (EGS). Second, a comprehensive geothermal energy system scheduling model is established from HDR based on the energy hub modeling structure. Then, the IGDT is introduced to analyze the renewable energy output uncertainty in the model. Finally, through a real RIES analysis, the simulation results verified the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed model. The scheduling cost was ¥47,073 when EGS participated in the scheduling. Access to EGS reduced the system's total 24‐h energy purchase by 8305 kW, natural gas consumption by 3051.9 m3, and total carbon emissions by 742.28 kg. The latter emphasized that the proposed model achieves the purpose of reducing the system cost, saving energy and reducing emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The given document is the front matter of the American Economic Review journal, published in July 2024. It includes a list of articles and authors featured in the issue, as well as information about the journal's editorial board and submission guidelines. The document also provides a brief biography of Drew Fudenberg, a distinguished fellow and game theorist. The American Economic Review is a reputable publication that covers a wide range of economic topics and aims to provide clear and precise documentation of data used in analysis. [Extracted from the article]

The traffic volume and maintenance demand on Taiwan's provincial highways have been steadily increasing. One of the most challenging issues in maintenance is determining the optimal timing and allocation of funds to avoid duplicative investments and maximize resource utilization. Currently, provincial highway maintenance units rely heavily on manual processes and paper-based records, using experiential methods to formulate maintenance strategies and conduct maintenance operations. This indicates a lack of objective maintenance strategies and pavement management systems in these units. This study aims to address this gap by integrating domestic and international literature on pavement maintenance decision-making. Existing approaches typically fall into two categories: "Pavement Indicator Rating" and "Pavement Maintenance Prioritization". However, there has not been research integrating these methods for decision-making. Therefore, this research integrates these two approaches to establish a comprehensive maintenance strategy for Taiwan's provincial highways. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed as the decision-making theory, involving expert interviews to calculate maintenance weights for different pavement maintenance indicators. The results show that the pothole count, International Roughness Index (IRI), and Pavement Condition Index (PCI) are the three most critical maintenance indicators. The first phase of the maintenance strategy uses the "Pavement Indicator Rating" to directly assess the pothole count, IRI, and PCI to categorize pavement sections as "maintenance sections" or "observation sections". The second phase employs "Pavement Maintenance Prioritization", integrating maintenance weights for each indicator to calculate maintenance scores. This phase prioritizes maintenance activities based on the results of the first phase's rating for "maintenance sections". Additionally, a provincial highway pavement management system is proposed to implement these strategies, enhancing maintenance management efficiency and ensuring the overall quality and longevity of provincial highway maintenance efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a linear consensus protocol QuickBFT based on Vague sets and multi-attribute decision-making methods. QuickBFT simplifies the communication process based on the HotStuff protocol, reduces the four-stage communication to three-stage communication, and reduces the consensus delay. Furthermore, we introduce the Vague set and multi-attribute decision-making theory into the consensus protocol and propose a new leader node selection algorithm, which can prevent Byzantine nodes from becoming leader nodes, thereby improving the protocol performance when the leader node is attacked. Experimental results show that the throughput of QuickBFT is slightly higher than that of the HotStuff protocol without Byzantine nodes, and the consensus delay is reduced by 20%. In the presence of Byzantine nodes, the throughput of QuickBFT is increased by 80% compared with the HotStuff protocol, and the consensus delay is reduced by 60%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of renewable energy power systems, electric vehicles, as an important carrier of green transportation, are gradually having an impact on the power grid load curve due to their charging behavior. However, the significant influx of electric vehicles (EVs) and distributed power sources has led to multiple uncertainties, increasing the difficulty in making grid scheduling decisions. Traditional robust scheduling strategies tend to be overly conservative, resulting in poor economic performance. Therefore, this paper proposes a robust and economic dispatch strategy for park power grids based on the information gap decision theory (IGDT). Firstly, based on the probabilistic characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution of EVs charging, the Monte Carlo method is used to generate typical electricity usage scenarios for EVs. Simultaneously, an economic dispatch model for the park power grid is established with the objective of minimizing operating costs. Taking into account the uncertainty of renewable energy output, simulation analysis is conducted through the IGDT model. Finally, through the verification of the improved IEEE-33 node test system and comparison with other methods, the proposed approach in this paper can reduce decision conservatism and effectively reconcile the contradiction. Through analysis, the proposed method in this paper can reduce the total operational cost of the system by up to 3.2%, with a computational efficiency of only 8.9% of the traditional stochastic optimization time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Background: Uncertainty poses a pervasive challenge in decision analysis and risk management. When the problem is poorly understood, probabilistic estimation exhibits high variability and bias. Analysts then utilize various strategies to find satisficing solutions, and these strategies can sometimes adequately address even highly complex problems. Previous literature proposed a hierarchy of uncertainty, but did not develop a quantitative score of analytical complexity. Methods: In order to develop such a score, this study reviewed over 90 strategies to cope with uncertainty, including methods utilized by expert decision-makers such as engineers, military planners and others. Results: It found that many decision problems have pivotal properties that enable their solution despite uncertainty, including small action space, reversibility and others. The analytical complexity score of a problem could then be defined based on the availability of these properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACTIntroduction The career choices of medical graduates vary widely between medical schools in the UK and elsewhere and are generally not well matched with societal needs. Research has found that experiences in medical school including formal, informal and hidden curricula are important influences. We conducted a realist evaluation of how and why these various social conditions in medical school influence career thinking.Methods We interviewed junior doctors at the point of applying for speciality training. We selected purposively for a range of career choices. Participants were asked to describe points during their medical training when they had considered career options and how their thinking had been influenced by their context. Interview transcripts were coded for context-mechanism-outcome (CMO) configurations to test initial theories of how career decisions are made.Results A total of 26 junior doctors from 12 UK medical schools participated. We found 14 recurring CMO configurations in the data which explained influences on career choice occurring during medical school.Discussion Our initial theories about career decision-making were refined as follows: It involves a process of testing for fit of potential careers. This process is asymmetric with multiple experiences needed before deciding a career fits (‘easing in’) but sometimes only a single negative experience needed for a choice to be ruled out. Developing a preference for a speciality aligns with Person-Environment-Fit decision theories. Ruling out a potential career can however be a less thought-through process than rationality-based decision theories would suggest. Testing for fit is facilitated by longer and more authentic undergraduate placements, allocation of and successful completion of tasks, being treated as part of the team and enthusiastic role models. Informal career guidance is more influential than formal. We suggest some implications for medical school programmes.

Businesses that want to benefit from cloud computing must choose a Cloud Service Provider (CSP). Cost, performance, Reliability, security, and SLAs must be evaluated during the decision process. CSP assessment is tough because of uncertainties and erroneous data. Fuzzy logic and the firefly optimization technique have been proposed in this paper to achieve optimal results based on diverse components. The proposed methodology uses consumer, service provider, and public reviews based on the three elements. These components' ratings can be used to analyze efficiency. Simple fuzzy logic is inferior to optimized fuzzy logic, according to experiments. The Firefly Optimized Fuzzy DSS is compared against non-optimized fuzzy decision-making systems and standard optimization methods. The results show that the proposed model is better for selecting the best CSP based on many parameters and managing assessment uncertainty. Fuzzy logic and optimization methods provide more nuanced and precise decision-making that accounts for subjective assessments and confusing facts. Businesses can make informed choices and ensure their CSP needs are satisfied with the approach. Finally, the Firefly Optimized Fuzzy Decision Support System offers a new perspective on cloud service provider selection by merging fuzzy logic with optimization. The system's ability to handle poor evaluations and ambiguity makes it ideal for CSP selection's complex decision-making process. This paper helps build decision support systems for choosing a cloud service provider and has substantial implications for firms seeking successful cloud computing solutions. This research work's conclusions have major implications for corporations and organizations searching for the finest cloud service providers. CSP-related real-world datasets are tested experimentally.

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

Abstract In this paper we consider a scenario where there are two wireless body area networks (WBANs) interfere with each other from a game theoretic perspective. In particular, we envision two WBANs playing a potential game to enhance their performance by decreasing interference to each other. Decreasing interference extends the sensors' batteries life time and reduces the number of re‐transmissions. We derive the required conditions for the game to be a potential game and its associated the Nash equilibrium (NE). Specifically, we formulate a game where each WBAN has three strategies. Depending on the payoff of each strategy, the game can be designed to achieve a desired NE. Furthermore, we employ a learning algorithm to achieve that NE. In particular, we employ the Fictitious play (FP) learning algorithm as a distributed algorithm that WBANs can use to approach the NE. The simulation results show that the NE is mainly a function of the power cost parameter and a reliability factor that we set depending on each WBAN setting (patient). However, the power cost factor is more dominant than the reliability factor according to the linear cost function formulation that we use throughout this work.

Actual decision making problems are often based on the company decision maker's behavior factors, such as risk attitude, subjective preference, etc. Regret theory can well express the behavior of the decision maker. In this pursuit, a novel decision making method was developed, based on the regret theory for the multi-attribute decision making problem, in which attribute values were expressed by spherical fuzzy numbers. Distance measurement not only has extensive applications in fields such as pattern recognition and image processing, but also plays an important role in the research of fuzzy decision theory. The existing distance measures of spherical fuzzy set either have special cases of anti-intuition or are more complex in calculation, so finding suitable distance measures is also an important research topic in the decision-making theory of spherical fuzzy set. For this reason, we first establish a new distance of spherical fuzzy sets based on Hellinger distance of probability distribution. A decision maker's perception utility value function is proposed using the new distance formula, which is used to measure the regretful and rejoice value. Then we establish an optimization model for solving the attribute weights, when the information of attribute weight was partially known. Subsequently, the comprehensive perceived utility values were utilized to rank the order of the alternatives. Finally, a numerical example of assessment of logistics providers is used to show that the new decision making method is effective and feasible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern statistics provides an ever-expanding toolkit for estimating unknown parameters. Consequently, applied statisticians frequently face a difficult decision: retain a parameter estimate from a familiar method or replace it with an estimate from a newer or more complex one. While it is traditional to compare estimates using risk, such comparisons are rarely conclusive in realistic settings. In response, we propose the "c-value" as a measure of confidence that a new estimate achieves smaller loss than an old estimate on a given dataset. We show that it is unlikely that a large c-value coincides with a larger loss for the new estimate. Therefore, just as a small p-value supports rejecting a null hypothesis, a large c-value supports using a new estimate in place of the old. For a wide class of problems and estimates, we show how to compute a c-value by first constructing a data-dependent high-probability lower bound on the difference in loss. The c-value is frequentist in nature, but we show that it can provide validation of shrinkage estimates derived from Bayesian models in real data applications involving hierarchical models and Gaussian processes. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we consider a scenario where there are two wireless body area networks (WBANs) interfere with each other from a game theoretic perspective. In particular, we envision two WBANs playing a potential game to enhance their performance by decreasing interference to each other. Decreasing interference extends the sensors' batteries life time and reduces the number of re‐transmissions. We derive the required conditions for the game to be a potential game and its associated the Nash equilibrium (NE). Specifically, we formulate a game where each WBAN has three strategies. Depending on the payoff of each strategy, the game can be designed to achieve a desired NE. Furthermore, we employ a learning algorithm to achieve that NE. In particular, we employ the Fictitious play (FP) learning algorithm as a distributed algorithm that WBANs can use to approach the NE. The simulation results show that the NE is mainly a function of the power cost parameter and a reliability factor that we set depending on each WBAN setting (patient). However, the power cost factor is more dominant than the reliability factor according to the linear cost function formulation that we use throughout this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daniel Ellsberg was a multifaced personality who belonged to multiple worlds: academia, the military, and, in the second part of his life, political activism. This essay reviews Ellsberg's analysis of decision-making under uncertainty, which has been highly influential in economics and reflects his diverse experiences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I reply to Ruth Chang's 'What is so Hard about Hard Choices'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Incommensurability is often introduced with the small improvement argument. Options A and B are shown to be incommensurable when it is neither the case that A is preferred to (or better than) B nor that B is preferred to (or better than) A, but a slightly improved version of A (A+) is still not preferred to B. Since A+ is preferred to A, but not to B, we must also conclude that it is also true that A and B are not indifferent (or equally good). Such incommensurable options seem incompatible with orthodox decision theory (and various forms of value theory) but options that obey the pattern described by this argument seem ubiquitous: my choice between lemon tarts and eclairs at my favourite pastry shop might exhibit this pattern, but so could my choice between jobs or careers. In trying to accommodate incommensurable options within various frameworks, philosophers have argued that we must preserve certain central features of the phenomenon. Among them is the supposed "hardness" of at least some incommensurable options: even if perhaps one would need to be a rather anxious gourmet to describe the choice between lemon tarts and eclairs as hard, the choice among careers could potentially be agonizing. However, it is not clear in which way choices among incommensurable options are "hard," nor how and whether such hardness poses problems for the various accounts of incommensurable choices. To complicate matters, the deontic verdicts for choices between incommensurable options seem to be relatively straightforward: one appealing view is that in such circumstances I am rationally permitted to choose any option that is not worse than another option. This paper aims to provide a sharper formulation of at least a version of the hardness problem, to argue that various theories of incommensurability fail to account for the hardness of some incommensurable choices, and to propose that the theory of instrumental rationality I develop in Rational Powers in Action, aided by a Kantian insight, promises to provide an adequate explanation of the hardness of choice among incommensurable options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expanding and managing current habitat and species protection measures is at the heart of the European biodiversity strategy. A structured approach is needed to gain insights into such issues is systematic conservation planning, which uses techniques from decision theory to identify places and actions that contribute most effectively to policy objectives given a set of constraints. Yet culturally and historically determined European landscapes make the implementation of any conservation plans challenging, requiring an analysis of synergies and trade-offs before implementation. In this work, we review the scientific literature for evidence of previous conservation planning approaches, highlighting recent advances and success stories. We find that the conceptual characteristics of European conservation planning studies likely reduced their potential in contributing to better-informed decisions. We outline pathways towards improving the uptake of decision theory and multi-criteria conservation planning at various scales, particularly highlighting the need for (a) open data and intuitive tools, (b) the integration of biodiversity-focused conservation planning with multiple objectives, (c) accounting of dynamic ecological processes and functions, and (d) better facilitation of entry-points and co-design practices of conservation planning scenarios with stakeholders. By adopting and improving these practices, European conservation planning might become more actionable and adaptable towards implementable policy outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The three-way decision paradigm is a decision-making approach that is analogous to human reasoning. It involves a neutrosophic set as an efficient tool for handling ambiguity. Using cotangent similarity, the Hamming distance, and the innovative Vicis-Wave Hedges distance for ranking, this study proposes three novel three-way decision models based on the Bayes decision. In particular, single-valued neutrosophic numbers are employed to represent each loss function. The proposed models are then condensed into an algorithm. Subsequently, an example is presented to demonstrate the validity and rationality of the proposed models. Finally, we compare the three models. This research provides a new method for decision-making problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In distribution networks, among the planning problems, optimal placement of medium voltage to low voltage (MV/LV) transformers is a vital and challenging issue. Electrical load uncertainty is an important factor that affects the result of this planning problem. This paper investigates optimal allocation of service transformers with respect to the load uncertainty modelled by information gap decision theory (IGDT). For this aim, the planning problem is solved in risk‐neutral (RN) and risk‐averse (RA) frameworks. In RN strategy, objective function is defined to minimize the cost of service transformers and low voltage feeders as well as the cost of power losses. On the other hand, in RA strategy, objective function is defined to maximize the radius of the uncertainty in such a way that any deviation of the uncertain parameter results in an objective function value that is not worse than the critical limit. The optimization problem is solved by crow search algorithm (CSA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) and the results are compared. In mid‐term planning, with respect to the deviation factors of 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25 and 0.3, optimal values of the uncertainty radius are 5.89%, 13.64%, 21.37%, 28.97%, 34.39% and 43.46%, respectively. In long‐term planning, with respect to the deviation factors of 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25 and 0.3, optimal values of the uncertainty radius are 6.92%, 13.33%, 20.39%, 27.03%, 34% and 40.46%, respectively. Moreover, on average, CSA finds more promising results than PSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the major challenges facing decision-makers at the present time is obtaining complete information about the issue under study, due to the unstable conditions of the work environment that are beyond the control of decision-makers, which requires them to reach an optimal decision in light of these circumstances and fluctuations and to benefit from the data that is collected. Collected by specialists to determine the appropriate probability distribution corresponding to random cases of nature, here we are faced with the issue of making a decision in the event of risk because the probability distribution is a distribution linked to the data controlled by the conditions of the work environment, which entails a great risk. Decision makers bear the responsibility of choosing the optimal decision that reduces This risk is achieved and the greatest possible profit and the least possible loss are achieved. The issue of decision-making becomes more complex as the number of events increases, and we are in dire need of an ideal study of the issue that takes into account all the circumstances of the work environment. The concept of missed opportunity is very useful in analyzing the decision making under risk, after making the decision and the occurrence of events, the decision makers may regret and wish they had chosen actions different from those they chose at the beginning. To reduce the regret of the decision makers and minimize the expected lost opportunity, researchers in the field of classical operations research presented the criterion of the expected lost opportunity through which the decision can be determined. The ideal with the least percentage of regret. In this research, we present a neutrosophic vision of the expected opportunity loss criterion by taking the data of the issue under study. neutrosophic values are ranges whose lowest limit expresses profit in the worst conditions, and only the highest represents profit in the best conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, ten questions measuring distributive justice on classical Likert and neutrosophic Likert scales consisting of two subdimensions—distributive and procedural justice—were used. Participants responded to the same questions for both the classical Likert and neutrosophic Likert scales within a single survey, with the neutrosophic method applied, for the first time, to the questions included in the scale. The neutrosophic scale responses were answered in percentages to resemble natural language, and the answers received for each question were reduced to the range [−1, 1] to grade the agreement approach through a score function used in neutrosophic decision-making theory. In this study, the neutrosophic scale, a scaling method with strong theoretical foundations, was compared with the traditional Likert scale. The results of the statistical analyses (exploratory factor analysis, reliability analysis, neural network analysis, correlation analysis, paired samples t-test, and one-way and two-way ANOVAs) and evaluations of the scales were compared to measure organizational justice within a single study. In this article, the symmetric and non-symmetric properties of statistical analysis that are specific to this paper in addition to general symmetric and non-symmetry properties are discussed. These symmetric and non-symmetric features are conceptualized according to the features on which each statistical analysis focuses. Finally, although this study presents a new area of research in the social sciences, we believe that the neutrosophic Likert scale and survey approach will contribute to collecting detailed and sensitive information on many topics, such as economics, health, audience perceptions, advertising responses, and product, market, and service purchase research, through the use of score functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]