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Climate change is a major environmental stressor that would adversely affect tropical agriculture, which is largely rain-fed. Associated with climate change is an increasing trend in temperature and decline in rainfall, leading to prolonged and repeated droughts. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of climate variables such as temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and soil water on the phenology, biomass, and grain yield of soybean crops. A greenhouse experiment was set in a split plot design with three average environmental conditions as the main plots: E1 (36 °C, RH = 55%), E2 (34 °C, RH = 57%) and E3 (33 °C, RH = 44%). Additionally, there were three water treatments: W1 (near saturation), W2 (Field capacity), and W3 (soil water deficit) and two soybean varieties (Afayak and Jenguma). These treatments were replicated nine times. The results showed that high temperatures (E1) accelerated the crop development, particularly at flowering. Additionally, increased atmospheric demand for water under a high temperature environment resulted in high evapotranspiration, leading to high transpiration which probably reduced photosynthetic activity of the plants and thereby contributing to biomass and grain yield loss. Biomass and yield were drastically reduced for the combined effect of high temperature (E1) and drought (W3) as compared to combined effect of ambient temperature (E3) and well-watered condition (W1). Increasing temperatures and erratic rainfall distributions associated with climate change poses a potential threat to the soybean production in Ghana.

Agriculture in West Africa is constrained by several yield-limiting factors, such as poor soil fertility, erratic rainfall distributions and low input systems. Projected changes in climate, thus, pose a threat since crop production is mainly rain-fed. The impact of climate change and its variation on the productivity of cereals in smallholder settings under future production systems in Navrongo, Ghana and Nioro du Rip, Senegal was assessed in this study. Data on management practices obtained from household surveys and projected agricultural development pathways (through stakeholder engagements), soil data, weather data (historical: 1980–2009 and five General Circulation Models, mid-century time slice 2040–2069 for two Representative Concentration Pathways, 4.5 and 8.5) were used for the impact assessment, employing a crop simulation model. Ensemble maize yield changes under the sustainable agricultural development pathway (SDP) were −13 and −16%, while under the unsustainable development pathway (USDP), yield changes were −19 and −20% in Navrongo and Nioro du Rip, respectively. The impact on sorghum and millet were lower than that on maize. Variations in climate change impact among smallholders were high with relative standard deviations (RSD) of between 14% and 60% across the cereals with variability being higher under the USDP, except for millet. Agricultural production systems with higher intensification but with less emphasis on soil conservation (USDP) will be more negatively impacted by climate change compared to relatively sustainable ones (SDP).

International audience; Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.

The efficiency of mineral fertilizer use in most soils in Sub-saharan Africa is low. Prominent among the reasons for this is low soil carbon stock. In this study, we hypothesized that in the short term, combined use of biochar and inorganic fertilizer in irrigated rice (Oryza sativa var KRC Baika) cropping systems will increase soil organic carbon storage, N recovery and agronomic efficiency of N use (above world average of 55% and 20 kg grain&middot, kg&minus, 1&middot, N respectively) and improved economic returns compared to the sole use of inorganic fertilizer. A two-year (4‒cropping cycles) field trial was, thus, conducted on a Vertisol. The experiments were designed as split&ndash, plot with two (0 and 10 t&middot, ha&minus, 1) biochar and four (0, 45, 90, 120 kg&middot, N) nitrogen application rates. Additionally, the effect of biochar on the chemical properties of the soil was investigated using standard protocols. Biochar application improved the soil organic carbon storage in the topsoil. There were significant interactions between the application of biochar and nitrogen fertilizer on yield parameters. Introducing biochar significantly increased root volume and nutrient (N, P and K) uptake, resulting in increased grain and straw yield. Grain yields under biochar amended plots were higher than sole fertilizer amended plots in 14 out of 16 instances (cropping cycles x N rates). The increase in grain yield was between 12 to 29% across N rates. Biochar amendment also enhanced agronomic N use and apparent N recovery efficiencies in 3 out of the 4 cropping cycles. Gross margin indicated that biochar application under irrigated rice cropping systems is economically feasible in all cropping cycles and N rates. However, the value cost ratio of biochar application was higher than for sole inorganic fertilizer in three out of the four cropping cycles (each cropping cycle has three N rates). The soil organic carbon storage of biochar amended soil increased by 17% under unfertilized condition and by 32% under fertilized condition. To enable the promotion and efficient use of the biochar technology in enhancing productivity and profitability in irrigated rice, extension officers and farmers will need to be trained on how to char the rice husk to reduce emissions prior to upscaling the technology to farmers.

The yield gap and variability in maize under smallholder systems in two agroecologies in northern Ghana were evaluated using a decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT). The model...

The maintenance of soil productivity is important for sustained crop yield in low-input systems in the tropics. This study investigated the impact of four different land use types, namely, maize and cassava cropping, woodlot/plantations, and natural forests on soil productivity components, especially soil carbon accretion, at six sites within two agro-ecological zones of southern Ghana. Soil properties were significantly different between sites and ecological zones. The coastal savanna zones, which is a low rainfall zone had relatively lower soil carbon storage than the high rainfall forest-savanna transition zone. Soil productivity conditions in the later zone were much more favorable for cropping than the former. Land use types significantly affected the soil carbon (SOC) storage within the two ecological zones. In the low rainfall zone, soil carbon accretion by maize cropping, cassava cropping, and plantations were 48%, 54%, and 60%, respectively, of the forest carbon stock (47,617 kg/ha). In the transition zone, the soil carbon accretion was over 90% of the forest value (48,216 kg/ha) for all land use types. In effect use of land use types in maintaining soil productivity must consider the conditions in a given ecological zone.

Changes in land cover (LC) can lead to environmental challenges, but few studies have investigated LC changes at a country wide scale in Ghana. Tracking LC changes at such a scale overtime is relevant for devising solutions to emerging issues. This study examined LC changes in Ghana for the past almost two and half decades covering 1995–2019 to highlight significant changes and opportunities for sustainable development. The study used land cover data for six selected years (1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2019) obtained from the European Space Agency. The data was analyzed using R, ArcGIS Pro and Microsoft Excel 365 ProPlus. The original data was reclassified into eight LC categories, namely: agriculture, bare area, built-up, forest, grassland, other vegetation, waterbody, and wetland. On average, the results revealed 0.7%, 131.7%, 23.3%, 46.9%, and 11.2% increases for agriculture, built-up, forest, waterbody, and wetland, respectively, across the nation. However, losses were observed for bare area (92.8%), grassland (51.1%), and other vegetation (41%) LCs overall. Notably, agricultural land use increased up to 2015 and decreased subsequently but this did not affect production of the major staple foods. These findings reveal the importance of LC monitoring and the need for strategic efforts to address the causes of undesirable change.

The productivity of smallholder farming systems is held back by poor soil fertility, low input levels and erratic rainfall distribution in the sorghum-based cropping systems of the Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa. We assessed the sensitivity of current agricultural practices to climate change and to improved management practices: (i) increased fertilizer application combined with increased plant populations and (ii) use of improved sorghum varieties. We applied the Decision Support Systems for Agro-Technological Transfer (DSSAT) Cropping Systems Model, and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), for a multiple-farm assessment (i.e. diverse types of management and soils) in Koutiala (Mali) and Navrongo (Ghana), which are representative sites for West African sorghum production systems. Baseline climate data from observed weather (1980–2009) and future climates from five Global Circulation Models (GCMs: 2040–2069) in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used as inputs for crop models. In Navrongo, under current management, sorghum yields either decreased or increased compared to the baseline, depending on the crop models and the GCMs; changes in management options induced a yield increase of up to 256%. The addition of genetic improvement resulted in further yield increases (24%). In Koutiala, sorghum yield changes for future climates ranged from −38 to +8% assuming current management. Shifting to an improved cultivar had a marginal effect on grain yields, while increased fertilizer rates resulted in grain yield increases ranging of 20% and 153% for DSSAT and APSIM, respectively, assuming the current climate. We conclude that in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa sorghum, as it is cultivated today, appears moderately vulnerable to climate change, while doubling fertilizer inputs with an adjusted planting density, in the current climate, would more than double yields. However, by exploring farm diversity we established that, under certain conditions, the effect of the future climate might be as important as the effect of management changes in the current climate, hinting at the importance of locally-relevant management practices.

To reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5 °C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming. In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. The current study assessed impacts of 1.5 °C versus 2.0 °C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in the West African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows. As sustainable intensification is promoted in the region for improving food security, simulations were conducted for both current fertilizer use and for an intensification case (fertility not limiting). With current fertilizer use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2.0 °C compared to 1.5 °C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with current fertilizer levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always two to three times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security.

The emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) results in global warming and climate change. The extent to which developing countries contribute to GHG emissions is not well known. This study reports findings on the effects of different land-use systems on GHG emissions (CO2 in this case) from two locations in the southern zone of Ghana, West Africa. Site one (located at Kpong) contained a heavy clay soil while site two (located at Legon) contained a light-textured sandy soil. Land-use systems include cattle kraals, natural forests, cultivated maize fields, and rice paddy fields at site one, and natural forest, woodlots, and cultivated soya bean fields at site two. CO2 emissions were measured using the gas entrapment method (PVC chambers). Trapping solutions were changed every 12–48 h and measurement lasted 9 to 15 days depending on the site. We found that, for the same land-use, CO2 emissions were higher on the clay soil (Kpong) than the sandy soil (Legon). In the clay soil environment, the highest average CO2 emission was observed from the cattle kraal (256.7 mg·m−2·h−1), followed by the forest (146.0 mg·m−2·h−1) and rice paddy (140.6 mg·m−2·h−1) field. The lowest average emission was observed for maize cropped land (112.0 mg·m−2·h−1). In the sandy soil environment, the highest average CO2 emission was observed from soya cropped land (52.5 mg·m−2·h−1), followed by the forest (47.4 mg·m−2·h−1) and woodlot (33.7 mg·m−2·h−1). Several factors influenced CO2 emissions from the different land-use systems. These include the inherent properties of the soils such as texture, temperature, and moisture content, which influenced CO2 production through their effect on soil microbial activity and root respiration. Practices that reduce CO2 emissions are likely to promote carbon sequestration, which will consequently maintain or increase crop productivity and thereby improve global or regional food security.

Maize (Zea mays) has traditionally been a major cereal staple in southern Ghana. Through breeding and other crop improvement efforts, the zone of cultivation of maize has now extended to the northern regions of Ghana which, hitherto, were the home to sorghum and millet as the major cereals. Maize yield in the northern Ghana is hampered by three major biophysical constraints, namely, poor soil fertility, low soil water storage capacity and climate variability. In this study we used the DSSAT crop model to assess integrated water and soil management strategies that combined the pre-season El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based weather forecasting in selecting optimal planting time, at four locations in the northern regions of Ghana. It could be shown that the optimum planting date for a given year was predictable based on February-to-April (FMA) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly for the locations with R2 ranging from 0.52 to 0.71. For three out of four locations, the ENSO-predicted optimum planting dates resulted in significantly higher maize yields than the conventional farmer selected planting dates. In Wa for instance, early optimum planting dates were associated with La Nina and El Niño (Julian Days 130-150; early May to late May) whereas late planting (mid June to early July) was associated with the Neutral ENSO phase. It was also observed that the addition of manure and fertilizer improved soil water and nitrogen use efficiency, respectively, and minimized yield variability, especially when combined with weather forecast. The use of ENSO-based targeted planting date choice together with modest fertilizer and manure application has the potential to improve maize yields and also ensure sustainable maize production in parts of northern Ghana.

Climate change is projected to have serious environmental, economic, and social impacts on Ghana, particularly on rural farmers whose livelihoods depend largely on rainfall. The extent of these impacts depends largely on awareness and the level of adaptation in response to climate change. This study examines the perception of farmers in Sekyedumase district of Ashanti region of Ghana on climate change and analyzes farmers’ adaptation responses to climate change. A hundred and eighty farming households were interviewed in February and October 2009. Results showed that about 92% of the respondents perceived increases in temperature, while 87% perceived decrease in precipitation over the years. The major adaptation strategies identified included crop diversification, planting of short season varieties, change in crops species, and a shift in planting date, among others. Results of logit regression analysis indicated that the access to extension services, credit, soil fertility, and land tenure are the four most important factors that influence farmers’ perception and adaptation. The main barriers included lack of information on adaptation strategies, poverty, and lack of information about weather. Even though the communities are highly aware of climate issues, only 44.4% of farmers have adjusted their farming practices to reduce the impacts of increasing temperature and 40.6% to decreasing precipitation, giving lack of funds as the main barrier to implementing adaptation measure. Implications for policymaking will be to make credit facilities more flexible, to invest in training more extension officers and more education on climate change and adaptation strategies.

The CERES-sorghum module of the Decision Support System for Agro-Technological Transfer (DSSAT) model was calibrated for sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) using data from sorghum grown with adequate water and nitrogen and evaluated with data from several N rates trials in Navrongo, Ghana with an overall modified internal efficiency of 0.63. The use of mineral N fertilizer was found to be profitable with economically optimal rates of 40 and 80 kg N ha −1 for more intensively managed homestead fields and less intensively managed bush fields respectively. Agronomic N use efficiency varied from 21 to 37 kg grain kg −1 N for the homestead fields and from 15 to 49 kg grain kg −1 N in the bush fields. Simulated grain yield for homestead fields at 40 kg N ha −1 application was equal to yield for bush fields at 80 kg N ha −1 . Water use efficiency generally increased with increased mineral N rate and was greater for the homestead fields compared with the bush fields. Grain yield per unit of cumulative evapo-transpiration (simulated) was consistently higher compared with yield per unit of cumulative precipitation for the season, probably because of runoff and deep percolation. In the simulation experiment, grain yield variability was less with mineral N application and under higher soil fertility (organic matter) condition. Application of mineral N reduced variability in yield from a CV of 37 to 11% in the bush farm and from 17 to 7% in the homestead fields. The use of mineral fertilizer and encouraging practices that retain organic matter to the soil provide a more sustainable system for ensuring crop production and hence food security.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO 2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing climate change-related effects that call for integrated regional assessments, yet capacity for these assessments has been low. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is advancing research on integrated regional assessments of climate change that include climate, crop, and economic modeling and analysis. Through AgMIP, regional integrated assessments are increasingly gaining momentum in SSA, and multi-institutional regional research teams (RRTs) centered in East, West, and Southern Africa are generating new information on climate change impacts and adaptation in selected agricultural systems. The research in Africa is organized into four RRTs and a coordination team. Each of the RRTs in SSA is composed of scientists from the Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) institutions, National Agriculture Research institutes (NARs), and universities consisting of experts in crop and economic modeling, climate, and information technology. Stakeholder involvement to inform specific agricultural systems to be evaluated, key outputs, and the representative agricultural pathways (RAPs), is undertaken at two levels: regional and national, in order to contribute to decisionmaking at these levels. Capacity building for integrated assessment (IA) is a key component that is undertaken continuously through interaction with experts in regional and SSA-wide workshops, and through joint creation of tools. Many students and research affiliates have been identified and entrained as part of capacity building in IA. Bi-monthly updates on scholarly publications in climate change in Africa also serve as a vehicle for knowledge-sharing. With 60 scientists already trained and actively engaged in IA and over 80 getting monthly briefs on the latest information on climate change, a climate-informed community of experts is gradually taking shape in SSA.