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Some sizeable, favourable, forecast revisions from the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) allowed the Chancellor to announce a significant loosening of the fiscal stance in October's Budget, while still maintaining the same margin for error against his fiscal mandate. However, forthcoming changes in the treatment of student loans in the public finances mean that the prospects of a further loosening in the fiscal stance look slim. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

▀ There has been widespread misinformation in and outside Parliament about the economic case for Brexit. Outside Parliament, the rival groups – those with a negative assessment of Brexit and those with a positive one – have set out their arguments but these have huge differences in the factual and intellectual support they each bring to the debate. The group predicting a negative effect have published a wide set of empirical appraisals from academic and related research teams of the case for leaving and that against it. This, largely rigorous statistical analysis, finds strong and clear evidence of the large costs to leaving. The camp predicting a positive result for Brexit, in contrast, relies on one academic source for its case; the Cardiff University Macroeconomic Institute led by Patrick Minford. This has reported its predictions of the effects of Brexit which in contrast to the other camp, show large positive effects to growth and other key parts of the UK economy.▀ We assess the empirical quality of these two cases and conclude that the economic modelling of the Cardiff group is insufficient for them to give an adequate empirical estimate of the costs and benefits of Brexit; the Liverpool model it uses has a sparse overseas sector and does not differentiate between EU and non‐EU trade for example, so is unsuited to analyse the effects of changes in these. Our verdict is that, based on the evidence, Brexit in almost any form would be damaging to the UK.1 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK's decision to leave the European Union will have a wide-ranging effect on the British economy, but the scale and sequencing of the likely effects are hard to gauge. The uncertainties surrounding how a country separates itself from a regional economic bloc have posed challenges to the economics profession about how best to analyse the many consequences. The paper discusses the main lines of relevant economic argumentation, and reviews the evidence from studies of the likely effects of 'Brexit'. It then considers how the UK's economic linkages with the EU might evolve and examines some of the ensuing political economy challenges. The concluding section ponders the role of economists in so contentious a political development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The BREXIT referendum of June 23, 2016, represents a rather surprising decision by the UK electorate and it is a historical result with implications for the UK, Europe and the world economy. It can be shown that a major information blunder by the Cameron government forms part of the explanation of the referendum result: The 16 page info brochure that government sent out to households did not contain a single key finding of the Treasury study on the economic effects of EU membership on the UK and the cost of BREXIT, respectively. While prior to the Scottish referendum of 2014 the Cameron government conveyed key economic insights to households, before the BREXIT vote the government did not give the Treasury's finding that a 10 % output loss was to be expected as a long run BREXIT effect - had households obtained this information, the referendum would have been 52 % in favor of Remain. Thus there is a new, very convincing argument for a second referendum. Also, US perspectives are emphasized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author comments on the impact of the 2016 Brexit referendum to leave the European Union and the possible problems following the exit. Topics include the dilemma of sovereignty that could possibly result to major conflicts, the rise of populism in European countries that could bring political instability and the end of European financial contributions and access to the labor market.

The author comments on the economic factors that affect the voters' behaviour to vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum to leave the European Union. Topics include the government's austerity policies, the lack of access to public services which are cut by the government of Prime Minister David Cameron and the lack of investment in public housing.

The aim of this study is to determine mean comparison and identify similarities for all five dimensions of service quality between public hospitals in London city, UK and private hospitals in Attock city of Pakistan on the basis of patient's perception. Data was collected from patients through self-administered questionnaire. SERVQUAL was measurement scale, comprises of 21 items covering all five dimensions. Independence T-Test was performed to analyze collected data using Statistical software package for social sciences. Response rate is this study is 83.33%. It is concluded that in both sectors, performance of hospitals is lowest in responsiveness dimension of service quality. There is highest level of assurance among public hospitals of United Kingdom but in Pakistani private hospitals, empathy dimension is on higher side as compared to other four dimensions. Overall service quality in public hospitals of UK is better than those in private hospitals of Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the economic conditions of Great Britain. It mentions that impact of Great Britain's decision reagrding the exit from European Union on its economy, and states the decline in gross domestic product (GDP). It also mentions the decline of interest rate and exchange rate after the exit of Great Britain from European Union.

The article discusses the Great Britain's decision reagrding the exit from European Union with Referendum, and its impact on the economy of the country. It mentions the decline in economy of Great Britain due to the decision of its exit from European Union (EU) and breaking of Free Trade Agreement with EU. It also mentions that Referendum involves metropolitan quarters for political and economic establishment.

The initial global market reaction to the UK Brexit vote was very negative and in our view overdone. Nevertheless, we expect the uncertainty to linger for a while, with the vote having refocused investors on existing vulnerabilities in the world economy. Our new forecasts see the main negative impacts on growth being in the UK, the Eurozone and Japan. Risks to our new forecasts remain skewed to the downside, with a significant danger of world growth dropping below 2% this year., Our new forecasts see UK growth dropping to 1.4% a year in 2017-18, down from 2.2-2.3% a year before. In the Eurozone, growth will be around 0.2% a year weaker in 2017-18 and Japan is also a loser as a result of the risk aversion-driven stronger yen, with growth at just 0.3% in 2017 from 0.5%., The size of the initial global market sell-off makes no sense in the context of the likely impact from a weaker UK. In part, it seems to have reflected the pricing in of very negative scenarios in the Eurozone. But investors may also be worrying about other global problems glossed over in recent months., One risk to our forecast is that confidence effects on businesses and consumers are larger than we expect - but such effects are often overstated. Another danger is that more of the recent financial market weakness will 'stick' than our new baseline forecasts assume., Our world recession indicator is already at elevated levels and suggests a significant danger of world growth slipping below 2% this year; not a recession, but it might feel like one. Global policymakers need to act quickly to head off the risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent months have seen the Government's endeavours to cut public sector borrowing stall. The UK's vote to leave the EU will now throw previous fiscal plans up in the air via both a likely slowdown in the economy and the possibility of a discretionary fiscal loosening. But the latter could prove a silver lining for the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the wake of the UK Brexit vote, forecasters have rushed to downgrade their growth forecasts for the UK, with some now expecting a recession. Using the Oxford Economics' Global Economic Model, we examine how likely a recession is by looking at the shocks the UK economy faces and the policy responses. We conclude that while a sharp slowdown is likely - in line with our own new forecasts - a recession is unlikely., Many UK forecasters are now predicting a recession in 2017, even though 'stand-alone' recessions in industrial countries are rare. Our forecast is less downbeat. The UK faces a series of negative shocks including to consumers and business confidence, but growth will be supported by the weaker sterling and likely policy responses., Using the Oxford Economics' Global Economic Model, we show that to shift our baseline forecast of growth of 1.1% next year to zero would require a very severe negative confidence shock. Our new baseline already assumes a shock equivalent to one-third of that seen in the global financial crisis (GFC). All else being equal, the shock would have to be around two-thirds of that in the GFC to cut GDP growth to zero in 2017., Our new baseline also does not incorporate all the possible policy levers the UK can employ. We currently assume the Bank Rate drops to zero, but if a 'rescue package' of £75 billion of QE and a fiscal stimulus equal to 1% of GDP was also added, then the shock to confidence needed to get zero GDP growth would have to be similar to that seen in the GFC. We do not consider this likely given the scale of financial stress and credit restriction that occurred globally at the time of the GFC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article re-claims and invigorates the debate on ‘New Materialism’ as it is unfolding within Marxist political economy specifically. We choose this site to make our intervention in the debate because, while Marxism claims to makes visible the poor, dispossessed and those ‘left behind’ in the contemporary global capitalist economy, we discern, in contributions made thus far, a marked tendency to sideline the rich tradition of feminist historical materialist scholarship. We contend that feminist analyses are vital in elucidating the ‘gendered face’ of global financial crisis and austerity. Accordingly, after first mapping the contours of current discussion, we briefly revisit feminist critiques of Marxism; interrogate the inter-relationship between neoliberal capitalism, the gendered nature of labour markets, the ‘patriarchal’ state and social reproduction and unpaid care work; and, finally, we further develop our argument through an analysis of the gendered impacts of current austerity measures in the United Kingdom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hong Kong's greater economic integration with China has continued to underpin its service-oriented economy following the manufacturing sectors' hollowing out since the 1990s. Hong Kong is an important transit hub for China's external trade, especially for the Pearl River Delta Region. China's deregulation of mainland visitors to Hong Kong under the Individual Visit Scheme since 2003 has contributed to Hong Kong's bulging trade surplus in travel. Nonetheless, the tremendous business opportunities from China's financial reform won't unseat the US and the UK as Hong Kong's top trade partners in financial services. Overall, Hong Kong's service economy will continue to prosper in the near term with China's continuous granting of special treatment. In the long run, strengthening Hong Kong's bridging role between mainland China and the global market will be crucial for the viability of its services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deficit reduction continues to be a slow process. And while the Government officially remains on course to meet its objective of a budget surplus by the end of the decade, it will not take much to knock that target off course, including an acceptance of the implausibility of current plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Net inward migration from the EU has been running at record levels in recent years, although the steep increase in new National Insurance numbers issued suggests that the official data may be understating the level of immigration. There was a clear step up in inflows after both expansions of the EU into central and eastern Europe, while the relative strength of the UK labour market has been an important driver of the more recent rise in inflows., High levels of immigration have helped to offset the impact of an ageing population and ensured that the UK has enjoyed stronger labour supply growth than many of its peers. With migrants typically being better educated than their UK-born counterparts, the quality of the stock of labour has also improved, and migrants have been found to have a net positive fiscal impact., But there have been some downsides, with evidence that high immigration has had a small dampening impact on wages. That migrants tend to head to London and the other southern regions over other destinations has exacerbated the imbalances in regional housing markets., Given that a desire to have greater control over immigration is usually one of the key motivations for those favouring Brexit, a vote in favour of leaving the EU is likely to see the UK abandon the policy of free movement of labour. This would probably see the UK extend the points-based system that it currently uses for non-EU countries to include EU migrants., Our modelling suggests that the adoption of a 'populist' immigration policy which lowers net inward migration by 60,000 a year could reduce the level of GDP by 1.1% in 2030 compared with our baseline forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A scenario run on the Oxford Global Model suggests that Brexit would leave the level of UK GDP 1.3ppt lower by Q2 2018 compared with our baseline forecast that the UK votes to stay in the EU. A vote to leave would mainly shock business confidence but consumers would be adversely affected too. Exporters in price-sensitive sectors would benefit from a weaker exchange rate., Market pricing suggests that sterling could initially fall by around 15% before recovering some of its losses, while the heightened uncertainty would also be expected to drive a sharp drop in equity prices in H2 2016., Brexit would present something of a dilemma for policymakers. While a weaker pound would cause inflation to initially spike upwards, we would expect the MPC to look through this and cut Bank Rate in order to support activity. And with the UK likely to retain its reputation as a safe haven, this would also see gilt yields stay lower for longer., Weaker growth would also put the Chancellor in breach of the fiscal mandate, though we would expect him to plead extenuating circumstances, rather than tighten policy and potentially exacerbate the slowdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential for a departure from the EU to undermine the UK's attractiveness as a location for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is often cited as one of the key risks were the UK to leave the EU. In weighing up the threat to FDI posed by 'Brexit' we assess the net gain from inward investment and the role played by EU membership in attracting FDI., In theory, FDI benefits the economy via lower interest rates, higher wages for workers and 'spillover' benefits boosting economy-wide productivity. But the evidence for these benefits is ambiguous. And FDI has potential drawbacks. These include an adverse effect on the tradeable sector, reflected in a wider current account deficit, the potential to 'crowd out' investment by domestic firms and the fiscal cost of subsidies paid to inward investors., That almost half of FDI in the UK comes from other EU countries suggests that EU membership is not the only driver of foreign investment in the UK. Other factors include the UK's business friendly environment, as reflected in global competitiveness surveys, and a relatively deregulated labour market. Of perhaps most importance is the lure provided by the UK's large domestic economy. 80% of FDI in the UK is in sectors where sales to the EU account for less than 10% of total demand., However, FDI in manufacturing does look vulnerable to Brexit, given the importance of the EU market. Granted, manufacturing accounts for a modest share of UK FDI. But to the extent that FDI boosts productivity, a loss of inward investment in this sector is likely to come at a disproportionate cost., Our modelling suggests that in a worst case Brexit scenario, the stock of FDI could ultimately be 7% lower relative to the UK remaining in the EU, potentially knocking around ½% off the level of GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While a major market for UK exports, the EU is not quite as significant as the headline statistics suggest and one which is likely to continue declining in relative importance. The static tariff cost of a worst-case 'Brexit' is estimated to be around ¼% of GDP, a modest sum., But the dynamic cost could be higher. And certain industrial sectors look vulnerable, notably aircraft and chemicals where sales to the EU account for over 40% of total (domestic and overseas) demand and EU tariffs are relatively high., Moreover, exports to the EU would also face non-tariff barriers, which would be of particular relevance for the services sector. That services firms export much more to the rest of the world than to the EU suggests that they are well versed in overcoming such barriers. But financial services would face particular risks from Brexit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the Great Recession, UK households reduced real food expenditure. We show that they were able to maintain the number of calories that they purchased, and the nutritional quality of these calories, by adjusting their shopping behaviour. We document the mechanisms that households used. We motivate our analysis with a model of shopping behaviour in which households adjust shopping effort and the characteristics of their shopping basket in response to economic shocks. We use detailed longitudinal data and focus on within-household changes in basket characteristics and proxies for shopping effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the effect of an increase in the stock of human capital due to skilled immigration on the innovative performance of recipient economies? Combining firm-level micro-data with area-level labour force information, this paper investigates the impact of skilled international migration inflows on firms' product and process innovation in British local labour market areas. The paper supports the evidence in favour of a causal link between immigration and innovation. Results also show that the nature of the innovative process and the typology of innovative activities performed by local firms play a key role in the relation between immigration and innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The events of the past couple of months have led us to push out our call for the first UK rate hike from February 2016 to May 2016. The financial market turmoil of late summer, increasingly dovish commentary from the MPC, the enduring strength of sterling and the likelihood of lower inflation over the next six months are all factors which point to the first rate hike coming later., This is a modal forecast which is consistent with our baseline forecast playing out. But the escalating downside risks would imply a mean forecast which shows the first rate hike coming even later still and the subsequent path of monetary tightening being shallower. This explains why the expectations of financial markets may appear to be more bearish than our own. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A consistent drop in public sector net borrowing in the first half of the year has stalled recently. And signs of a weaker pace of growth in the economy also points to borrowing in 2015-16 not falling as fast as the OBR expects. But evidence that the economy's potential is stronger than previously believed may allow an easing of the longer-term fiscal squeeze. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chancellor's post-election 'Summer Budget' saw pragmatism trump ideology, with a relaxation of the squeeze on departmental spending and a slower path of deficit reduction. But the price for this was a sharp cut in the welfare budget and a hike in taxes. Overall, fiscal policy is set to remain a drag on the economy.... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to estimate whether job applicants who have obtained a BSc in economics from 15 UK universities face different labour market prospects. The author examines whether university entry standards and Russell Group membership affect UK economics applicants’ occupational access and entry-level annual salaries when unobserved heterogeneities, such as ability, motivation, family characteristics and networks, are minimized. Design/methodology/approach – The author evaluate the research question by recording the job search processes of 90 British economics applicants from randomly selected universities. The key elements of the approach are as follows: third-year undergraduate students apply for early career jobs that are relevant to their studies. Applications are closely matched in terms of age, ethnicity, experience and other core characteristics. Differential treatment in the access to vacancies and entry-level annual salaries per university applicant are systematically measured. Findings – By observing as much information as a firm does, the estimations suggest that both entry standards and Russell Group membership positively affect applicants’ labour market prospects. Although the firms cannot evaluate by themselves whether graduates from highly reputable universities are more or less capable and motivated than graduates from less reputable universities, it appears that the university attended affects firms’ recruitment policies. Importantly, valuable variables that capture firms’ and jobs’ heterogeneities, such as occupational variation, regions, workplace size, establishment age, and the existence of trade unions and human resources, are also considered and provide new results. Practical implications – Understanding the impact of entry standards and university reputation on students’ labour market outcomes is critical to understanding the role of human capital and screening strategies. In addition, obtaining accurate estimates of the payoff of attending a university with a high entry threshold and reputation is of great importance not only to the parents of prospective students who foot tuition bills but also to the students themselves. Furthermore, universities will be interested in the patterns estimated by this study, which will allow recent UK economists to evaluate the current employment environment. In addition, universities should be keen to know how their own graduates have fared in the labour market compared with graduates of other universities. Originality/value – In the current study, the author attempt to solve the problem of firms’ seeing more information than econometricians by looking at an outcome that is determined before firms see any unobservable characteristics. In the current study, ability, motivation, family characteristics and networks cannot affect applicants’ access to vacancies and entry-level salaries. The current study can estimate the effect of university enrolment on applicants’ occupational access and entry-level salaries, controlling for unobserved characteristics that would themselves affect subsequent outcomes in the labour market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review the findings of the literature on the benefits of international financial flows and find that they are quantitatively elusive. We then present evidence on the existence of a global cycle in gross cross-border flows, asset prices and leverage and discuss its impact on monetary policy autonomy across different exchange rate regimes. We focus in particular on the effect of US monetary policy shocks on the UK's financial conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several charts are presented which shows economic forecast for Great Britain from 2004-2019 which include household consumer expenditure, short-term interest rate, and government financial balance.

The pace of deficit reduction has continued to disappoint against a relatively healthy economic backdrop. Structural changes in the labour market and income tax receipts auger against a dramatic improvement in 2015. Longer-term, the implausibility of spending cuts implied by current fiscal plans points to borrowing continuing to run ahead of official expectations... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reviews three entry points into a discussion of alternatives to today’s neoliberal capitalism. The first examines the need for a green new deal from mostly UK-based think tanks positioning the household as central to the economy, posing new core values for the economy that respect the environment, the social economy as well as the possibilities offered by Web-based technologies for new economic and political community relations. The second entry point is a review of feminists’ search for alternatives to mainstream economics and global development processes with calls for a transition to place-based socio-economic practices built on the ethics of care, gender justice, the centrality of social reproduction and community livelihoods. The last section examines the alternatives to global development and neoliberal capitalism emerging from Latin America examining Buen Vivir, intercultural pluriversal political and economic practices and lessons from Latin American indigenous women and decolonial feminist movements. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The solid pace of expansion in the economy has still yet to be matched by a commensurate improvement in the public finances. And with deficit reduction proving grindingly slow, a question mark continues to exist over the feasibility of current fiscal ambitions... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]