Search

This paper synthesizes San Francisco Bay Area-focused findings from research conducted in 2010–2012 as part of the state’s Vulnerability and Adaptation study sponsored by the California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. Historical observations of changes already evident are summarized, as well as projections of future changes in climate based on modeling studies using various plausible scenarios of how emissions of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere may change. Studies synthesized here show how these climate changes increase risks to society and natural ecosystems in a number of ways. Sectors for which impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options are presented include water, agriculture, energy supply and demand, transportation, ecosystems, public health, wildfire, and coastal resources. Results show that depending on the vulnerability of human and natural communities, and their abilities to respond to these growing risks through adaptive changes, the San Francisco Bay Area could experience either significant impacts or maintain its resilience in the face of a rapidly changing environment.

Our Changing Climate 2012 highlights important new insights and data, using probabilistic and detailed climate projections and refined topographic, demographic and land use information.

The research goals of this project were threefold: (1) to systematically identify the adaptation barriers encountered by local government entities in San Francisco Bay; (2) to test empirically the robustness and usefulness of a diagnostic framework (previously developed by the authors) so as to modify or refine its components; and (3) to draw larger lessons about the adaptation process and the importance of adaptation barriers—even in highly developed nations—for the scientific community in terms of future research priorities and for policy‐makers. To fulfill these goals, an in‐depth study of five California case studies in the San Francisco Bay region (Hayward, San Francisco, Santa Clara and Marin Counties, and the regional adaptation process) was undertaken. Relevant data were collected through key informant interviews, public documents, observation of and/or participation in public meetings, and a statewide survey.   The study found growing, but still very limited activities in the case studies. Institutional and attitudinal barriers dominate, but economic barriers are also important, even in wealthy locales. Leadership emerged as a critical factor in moving them forward on adaptation. Science mattered some, but policy and planning opportunities were more significant in motivating or launching the adaptation process. The study also found that communities have assets, aids, and advantages that can help them avoid barriers and that there is significant opportunity to affect and overcome the barriers that are being encountered in the “here and now.” However, local communities need outside intervention to address “legacy” and “remote” barriers. With still very little visible adaptation activity “on the ground,” the study concluded that a big portion of what communities are doing to date is working on overcoming the barriers to adaptation instead

Fragmented ocean management contributes significantly to the declining health of the world’s oceans. The sector-based piecemeal approach to management has produced a governance system filled with gaps and overlaps. These inefficiencies impede effective mitigation and confrontation of major environmental stressors. Historically, industries such as mining, fishing, and shipping, have driven management decisions for ocean-related uses. Government agencies, scientists, and other natural resource stakeholders are moving toward a management approach based on the relevant ecosystem, in order to resolve problematic fragmentation in ocean management. Transitioning into an ecosystem-based management approach requires comprehensive and systematic evaluation of the problems created by fragmented decision-making and of the landscape of the current governance system. In an effort to contribute to the shift toward ecosystem-based management efforts, this dissertation explores and develops text mining techniques that identify and evaluate gaps and overlaps. Two institutional theories frame the development of gaps and overlaps analyses: the problem of fit and institutional interplay, respectively. The gaps analysis uses conceptual ecosystem models and term counts from laws to identify situations in which management fails to acknowledge ecosystem relationships. From the gaps analysis, two measures indicate the degree to which governance (referring to the whole cross sectoral system of law) reflects the relationships and functionality of the ecosystem it aims to manage. The overlaps analysis uses term counts of laws combined with agency authority data to provide information about potential hubs of regulatory activity for a given topic (Overlap Index), and the degree of agency involvement in a particular topic. To develop such techniques, the project first compiled a comprehensive set of state and federal statutes and regulations to represent ocean and coastal management in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. This dissertation also highlights the utility of analyses in the context of a real world environmental problem by presenting a case study applying the analyses to ocean acidification and its projected impacts on the California Channel Islands waters. Overall, this dissertation demonstrates the immense application potential of computer science to provide baseline data about fragmented ocean management. This dissertation shows that text mining can provide a quantitatively and systematically generated starting point for further investigation and identifying research priorities.

Background: The public health community readily recognizes flooding and wildfires as climate-related health hazards, but few studies quantify changes in risk of exposure, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. Objectives: This study quantifies future populations potentially exposed to inland flooding and wildfire smoke under two climate scenarios, highlighting the populations in particularly vulnerable age groups ([less than or equal to] 4 y old and [greater than or equal to] 65 y old). Methods: Spatially explicit projections of inland flooding and wildfire under two representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) are integrated with static (2010) and dynamic (2050 and 2090) age-stratified projections of future contiguous U.S. populations at the county level. Results: In both 2050 and 2090, an additional one-third of the population will live in areas affected by larger and more frequent inland flooding under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5. Approximately 15 million children and 25 million older adults could avoid this increased risk of flood exposure each year by 2090 under a moderate mitigation scenario (RCP4.5 compared with RCP8.5). We also find reduced exposure to wildfire smoke under the moderate mitigation scenario. Nearly 1 million young children and 1.7 million older adults would avoid exposure to wildfire smoke each year under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Conclusions: By integrating climate-driven hazard and population projections, newly created county-level exposure maps identify locations of potential significant future public health risk. These potential exposure results can help inform actions to prevent and prepare for associated future adverse health outcomes, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2594, Introduction Human health threats from climate change are occurring both in the United States (Melillo et al. 2014; USGCRP 2016) and globally (Costello et al. 2009; Patz et al. 2014; [...]

Reefs and People at Risk: Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people’s lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science. An Indicator Approach: Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO2-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO2 world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO2 world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]