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With the trade in services playing an increasingly important role in boosting economic growth and development in many countries, governments and business entities particularly in developing countries should be devoting more time to exploring export opportunities for the services sector. However, a major challenge is that the services sector is often not well understood by government, and service providers themselves lack insight into and contacts in foreign markets. Furthermore, many governments concentrate more on the export promotion of products, while giving the services sector relatively less attention. This study investigates how two complementary decision support models (DSMs), for products and services respectively, can help to address the challenge of identifying realistic export opportunities in both these sectors. Specifi cally, the two DSMs, which incorporate a scientifi cally designed fi ltering process, reveal which products and services have the greatest potential in a range of viable markets. This linked approach to identifying export opportunities is an important step in encouraging co-operation between tangible goods producers and service providers, and lays the foundation for the design of mutually benefi cial export marketing programmes. The study also shows how export promotion agencies in South Africa can use the results of both models to develop strategic plans aimed at boosting product and service exports in specifi ed markets, thereby contributing meaningfully to the countrys internationalisation drive. Key words: international trade, products, services, diversifi cation, export opportunities, product-service combinations, decision support model (DSM), South Africa

Purpose This paper aims to identify Thailand’s realistic export opportunities (REOs) in the ASEAN+3 countries (i.e. ASEAN, Greater China, Japan and South Korea), which together constitute an economically dynamic region and a strategic export destination for Thailand. Furthermore, the paper seeks to determine the extent to which Thailand already has a share in ASEAN+3 countries and where new opportunities lie. This allows the formulation of appropriate export promotion strategies for Thailand. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used is a decision support model (DSM) which uses an extensive data-filtering system to systematically screen and eliminate less-promising product–country combinations to ultimately reveal high-potential REOs. Product–country combinations are screened on the basis of country risk; macro-economic country performance; market potential in terms of import growth and import market size; and market access conditions, including market concentration and the existence of trade barriers. The thus narrowed-down REOs are categorised according to Thailand’s relative market share in, and the characteristics of, the identified import markets. Findings The study reveals that the ASEAN+3 countries account for about 40 per cent of the total potential export value of Thailand’s REOs in the world, with China leading the way (12.45 per cent), followed by Japan (8.56 per cent) and South Korea (6.23 per cent). However, Thailand has a relatively small or intermediately small market share in the majority of these REOs, pointing to the need for more offensive and exploratory export promotion strategies. Research limitations/implications The ASEAN+3 countries – given that they are an abundant source of REOs for Thailand and are in Thailand’s “backyard” – should receive more focused attention and resources in government export promotion efforts. The recent launch of the ASEAN Economic Community and the proposed establishment of an East Asia Free Trade Area lend weight to the idea of Thailand adopting a strong regional focus in its export activities. Practical implications The insights derived from the study are valuable for export promotion officials, industry representatives and practising exporters alike, as they constitute an easy-to-digest snapshot of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 region. This makes for more efficient planning and prioritising of export development activities, and a more streamlined approach to resource allocation. Originality/value Export promotion shows diminishing returns and requires sustainable strategies and interventions. The value in this paper lies in its description of an innovative market selection tool, the DSM, which is able to process and filter high volumes of information and arrive at a shortlist of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 countries. The paper represents a concise case study of the DSM in practice, which should be of particular interest to export promotion agencies, industry associations and both new and more established exporting countries.

Background: One of the most compelling arguments for regional trade and integration in Africa is that the African market is the most fragmented in the world, with only 16% of trade being within the continent. Furthermore, with 14 regional economic communities (RECs), the scale of integrated trading compared to the magnitude of trade is cause for concern. Africa could soon witness an important milestone on its path towards increased regional trade and improved integration with the implementation of the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement (TFTA) involving 26 countries. However, addressing overlapping memberships of the RECs and streamlining regulations, customs and border procedures can be a lengthy process. Aim: In the meantime, this study aims to identify specific intra-regional trade opportunities among African countries to inform a more targeted approach to regional trade. Methods: This article uses a unique approach based on the Decision Support Model (DSM) to identify intra-regional trade opportunities between the TFTA countries, taking into account each country’s import demand and export supply. Results: We determined 334 such opportunities among the 26 countries, of which 232 (almost 70%) are newly recognised as not being exploited. Conclusion: This economic potential calls for policymakers to take a more proactive approach in their actions and recommendations by targeting these trade opportunities.

In the face of slow economic growth and development, and the perennial problems of unemployment, poverty and inequality, the South African government and business community have long recognised the importance of growing and diversifying the countrys tangible goods and services export sectors. One of the challenges in designing and implementing effective export promotion strategies is identifying the right markets, given South Africas ever-fluid skills, capacity and trading relationships. The Decision Support Model (DSM) is an export market selection tool that makes use of a sophisticated filtering process to sift through an extensive range of product-/service- and country-related data to reveal those product-/service-country combinations (export opportunities) that are the most realistic and sustainable. The DSM, which has been applied for Belgium, Thailand and South Africa, not only brings greater precision to the export market selection process, but also unveils opportunities that may not have been contemplated before thus supporting the quest for export diversification. This paper examines the role of the DSM for products and the DSM for services, respectively, and illustrates how, using the results from the application of these models, they herald the start of a new era in export market selection and promotion in South Africa.

South Africa needs to advance its industrialisation process and diversify its exports if it is to enhance its global competitiveness ranking and meaningfully tackle the double scourge of unemployment and poverty. The pharmaceutical industry makes a significant contribution to the countrys economy, and has a growing international footprint. However, export activity is largely centred on Southern and Eastern Africa, while markets in other parts of the world remain largely untapped. A longstanding concern of the government has been that export market selection has not been conducted in a scientific manner. Added to this is the problem of limited resources on the part of export promotion organisations. A Decision Support Model (DSM), originally conceived by Cuyvers et al. (1995) and then developed for the South African environment by Viviers, Steenkamp, Rossouw, and Cuyvers (2009, 2010), was used in this study to identify those export opportunities with the greatest potential for the South African pharmaceutical industry. Through a systematic filtering and elimination process, the DSM revealed that there are a large number of export opportunities for South African pharmaceutical products, particularly in Western Europe, North America, and Africa. Such information constitutes an important basis for strategic decision making on the part of industry and government stakeholders.

The IFAMR is published quarterly by the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association. For complete library visit: www.ifama.org