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This study addresses the critical need for improved demand forecasting models that can accurately predict energy consumption, particularly in the context of varying geographical and climatic conditions. The work introduces a novel demand forecasting model that integrates clustering techniques and feature engineering into neural network regression, with a specific focus on incorporating correlations with air temperature. Evaluation of the model's efficacy utilized a benchmark dataset from Tetouan, Morocco, where existing forecasting methods yielded RMSE values ranging from 6429 to 10,220 [MWh]. In contrast, the proposed approach achieved a significantly lower RMSE of 5168, indicating its superiority. Subsequent application of the model to forecast demand in Astana, Kazakhstan, as a case study, showcased its efficacy further. Comparative analysis against a baseline neural network method revealed a notable improvement, with the proposed model exhibiting a MAPE of 5.19% compared to the baseline's 17.36%. These findings highlight the potential of the proposed approach to enhance demand forecasting accuracy, particularly across diverse geographical contexts, by leveraging climate-related inputs, the methodology also demonstrates potential for broader applications, such as flood forecasting, agricultural yield prediction, or water resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods, increasingly exacerbated by climate change, are among the most destructive natural disasters globally, necessitating advancements in long-term forecasting to improve risk management. Traditional models struggle with the complex dependencies of hydroclimatic variables and environmental conditions, thus limiting their reliability. This study introduces a novel framework for enhancing flood forecasting accuracy by integrating geo-spatiotemporal analyses, cascading dimensionality reduction, and SageFormer-based multi-step-ahead predictions. The framework efficiently processes satellite-derived data, addressing the curse of dimensionality and focusing on critical long-range spatiotemporal dependencies. SageFormer captures inter- and intra-dependencies within a compressed feature space, making it particularly effective for long-term forecasting. Performance evaluations against LSTM, Transformer, and Informer across three data fusion scenarios reveal substantial improvements in forecasting accuracy, especially in data-scarce basins. The integration of hydroclimate data with attention-based networks and dimensionality reduction demonstrates significant advancements over traditional approaches. The proposed framework combines cascading dimensionality reduction with advanced deep learning, enhancing both interpretability and precision in capturing complex dependencies. By offering a straightforward and reliable approach, this study advances remote sensing applications in hydrological modeling, providing a robust tool for mitigating the impacts of hydroclimatic extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe flooding induced by heavy rainfall presents a significant challenge in metropolitan areas worldwide. Despite the imperative for effective preflood emergency management, existing early warning systems rely primarily on meteorological or hydrological factors. These factors are often mapped with coarse spatial-temporal resolution and lack direct correlations to the immediate consequences of hazards, thus hindering fine-grained estimation of evacuation demand to support proactive preflood evacuation planning. To address this gap, our study makes a twofold contribution: (1) introduction of a flood-specific, evacuation-oriented, and multilayered building functionality metric (BFM-Flooding); this metric assesses building functionality states under flooding by aggregating building damage conditions at three distinct layers of granularity while accounting for disruptions in supporting utilities. (2) Establishment of a comprehensive building functionality state forecasting framework (BFS-Forecasting); the framework delves into the temporal transition dynamics between different functionality states for different building archetypes; it predicts the spatiotemporal progression of functionality states for building portfolios and the resulting evacuation demand within a community during flood evolution. Finally, an illustration using Suzhou Industrial Park (SIP) in Jiangsu Province, China, under severe rainstorm conditions demonstrates that the twofold solution can provide valuable support to policymakers in making well-informed preflood evacuation decisions at a fine spatiotemporal resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CO2 flooding plays a crucial role in enhancing oil recovery and achieving carbon reduction targets, particularly in unconventional reservoirs with complex pore structures. The phase behavior of CO2 and hydrocarbons at different scales significantly affects oil recovery efficiency, yet its underlying mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. This study improves existing thermodynamic models by introducing Helmholtz free energy as a convergence criterion and incorporating adsorption effects in micro- and nano-scale pores. This study refines existing thermodynamic models by incorporating Helmholtz free energy as a convergence criterion, offering a more accurate representation of confined phase behavior. Unlike conventional Gibbs free energy-based models, this approach effectively accounts for confinement-induced deviations in phase equilibrium, ensuring improved predictive accuracy for nanoscale reservoirs. Additionally, adsorption effects in micro- and nano-scale pores are explicitly integrated to enhance model reliability. A multi-scale thermodynamic model for CO2-hydrocarbon systems is developed and validated through physical simulations. Key findings indicate that as the scale decreases from bulk to 10 nm, the bubble point pressure shows a deviation of 5% to 23%, while the density of confined fluids increases by approximately 2%. The results also reveal that smaller pores restrict gas expansion, leading to an enhanced CO2 solubility effect and stronger phase mixing behavior. Through phase diagram analysis, density expansion, multi-stage contact, and differential separation simulations, we further clarify how confinement influences CO2 injection efficiency. These findings provide new insights into phase behavior changes in confined porous media, improving the accuracy of CO2 flooding predictions. The proposed model offers a more precise framework for evaluating phase transitions in unconventional reservoirs, aiding in the optimization of CO2-based enhanced oil recovery strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assimilating either soil moisture or streamflow individually has been well demonstrated to enhance the simulation performance of hydrological models. However, the runoff routing process may introduce a lag between soil moisture and outlet discharge, presenting challenges in simultaneously assimilating the two types of observations into a hydrological model. The asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter (AEnKF), an adaptation of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), is capable of utilizing observations from both the assimilation moment and the preceding periods, thus holding potential to address this challenge. Our study first merges soil moisture data collected from field soil moisture monitoring sites with China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) soil moisture data. We then employ the AEnKF, equipped with improved error models, to assimilate both the observed outlet discharge and the merged soil moisture data into the Xin'anjiang model. This process updates the state variables of the model, aiming to enhance real-time flood forecasting performance. Tests involving both synthetic and real-world cases demonstrates that assimilation of these two types of observations simultaneously substantially reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, thereby aiding in elevating the accuracy of flood forecasting. Moreover, the AEnKF with the enhanced error model consistently yields greater forecasting accuracy across various lead times compared to the standard EnKF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The general unit hydrograph (GUH), recently established by Guo, represents the most advanced hydrograph model today, but how to implement it with hydrologic data is another story. In this work, an effective initial value-based method for estimating the parameters in the GUH model is proposed and applied to the analysis of flood processes. In contrast to the flood-rainfall united fitting method, which heavily depends on the flood records and has a broad range of parameter variations, which makes it practically intractable, the initial value-based method enables the calculation of model parameters directly from the measured rainstorm data and greatly enriches the discharge dataset so that more accurate prediction of flood processes becomes achievable. From the data collected from several watersheds, we find that smaller-shape parameters usually indicate a multi-peak flood process, and the rainfall patterns have a significant impact on flood peaks. These results provide a reliable approach for the prediction of floods in streams with scarce discharge data. Additionally, it is observed that the peak time lags have a notable increase from the southwest to the northeast of Zhejiang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effectiveness of Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) and log-log linear models for estimating the parameters of the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution, which are then used to estimate flood quantiles in ungauged catchments. This is known as the parameter regression technique (PRT). Using data from 88 gauged catchments in New South Wales, Australia, flood quantiles were estimated for various annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of 50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1%, corresponding to return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years, denoted by Q2, Q5, Q10, Q20, Q50, and Q100, respectively. These flood quantiles were then used as dependent variables, while several catchment characteristics served as independent variables in the regression. GAMs were employed to capture non-linearities in flood generation processes. This study evaluates different GAMs and log-log linear models, identifying the best ones based on significant predictors and various statistical metrics using a leave-one-out (LOO) validation approach. The results indicate that GAMs provide more accurate and reliable predictions of flood quantiles compared to the log-log linear models, demonstrating better performance in capturing observed values across different quantiles. The absolute median relative error percentage (REr%) ranges from 33% to 39% for the GAMs and from 36% to 45% for the log-log models. GAMs demonstrate better performance compared to the log-log linear models for quantiles Q2, Q5, Q10, Q20, and Q50; however, their performances appear to be similar for Q100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan's geographic location makes it an important land hub between Central Asia, Middle East-North Africa, and China. However, the railways, roads, farmland, riverways, and residential quarters in the Piedmont plains of Baluchistan province in northwestern Pakistan are under serious threat of flooding in the summer of 2022. The urgency and severity of climate change's impact on humanity are underscored by the significant threats posed to human life and property in Piedmont Plains environments through extreme flood events, which has garnered widespread concerns. In flood scenarios, accurately predicting the extent of flooding is crucial for disaster assessment, emergency response, and the efficient allocation of resources. Previous research has primarily predicted flooding likelihood based on topographical factors or integrated annual rainfall data, failing to account for the extent of flooding from short-term rainfall before and after an event. Flood disasters are not caused by a single factor but are influenced by a variety of elements, including terrain and climate. Therefore, current research still lacks a comprehensive consideration of these influencing factors to accurately predict both the range and severity of flood impacts. In this paper, in response to the inability to accurately predict the flood damage in the pre-hill plains region in previous studies, combined with the current Pakistan mega-flood disaster, will couple the impacts of various flood-inducing factors on flooding, construct a prediction model for the degree of inundation of the Pakistani pre-hill plains flood disaster, and combined with the distribution of regional bearers, analyze the risk-resistant capacity of different types of bearers, and draw a comprehensive risk map piece under the flooding disaster. This paper bridges the gap of not integrating various factors in previous studies. Our research results provide strong evidence for flood prediction in Pakistan and similar regions, which is of great significance in reducing the loss of life and property of people around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time series forecasting, particularly within the Internet of Things (IoT) and hydrological domains, plays a critical role in predicting future events based on historical data, which is essential for strategic decision making. Effective flood forecasting is pivotal for optimal water resource management and for mitigating the adverse impacts of flood events. While deep learning methods have demonstrated exceptional performance in time series prediction through advanced feature extraction and pattern recognition, they encounter significant limitations when applied to scenarios with sparse data, especially in flood forecasting. The scarcity of historical data can severely hinder the generalization capabilities of traditional deep learning models, presenting a notable challenge in practical flood prediction applications. To address this issue, we introduce MetaTrans-FSTSF, a pioneering meta-learning framework that redefines few-shot time series forecasting. By innovatively integrating MAML and Transformer architectures, our framework provides a specialized solution tailored for the unique challenges of flood prediction, including data scarcity and complex temporal patterns. This framework goes beyond standard implementations, delivering significant improvements in predictive accuracy and adaptability. Our approach leverages Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) to enable rapid adaptation to new forecasting tasks with minimal historical data. Our inner architecture is a Transformer-based meta-predictor capable of capturing intricate temporal dependencies inherent in flood time series data. Our framework was evaluated using diverse datasets, including a real-world hydrological dataset from a small catchment area in Wuyuan, China, and other benchmark time series datasets. These datasets were preprocessed to align with the meta-learning approach, ensuring their suitability for tasks with limited data availability. Through extensive evaluation, we demonstrate that MetaTrans-FSTSF substantially improves predictive accuracy, achieving a reduction of up to 16%, 19%, and 8% in MAE compared to state-of-the-art methods. This study highlights the efficacy of meta-learning techniques in overcoming the limitations posed by data scarcity and enhancing flood forecasting accuracy where historical data are limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather radar plays a critical role in flash flood forecasting, providing an effective and comprehensive guide for the identification of possible flood-prone areas. However, the utilization of radar precipitation data remains limited in current research and applications, particularly in addressing flash flood hazards in complex environments such as in Athens, Greece. To address this gap, this study introduces the Gridded Flash Flood Guidance (GFFG) method, a short-term flash flood forecasting and warning technology based on radar precipitation and hydrological model coupling, and implements it in the region of Athens, Greece. The GFFG system improves upon the traditional flash flood guidance (FFG) concept by better integrating the weather radar dataset's spatial and temporal flexibility, leading to increased resolution results. Results from six flood events underscore its ability to identify high-risk areas dynamically, with urban regions frequently flagged for flooding unless initial soil moisture conditions are low. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of the system showed that the most crucial parameter apart from rainfall input is the soil moisture conditions, which define the amount of effective rainfall. This study highlights the significance of incorporating radar precipitation and real-time soil moisture assessments to improve flood prediction accuracy and provide valuable flood risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods are among the most severe natural hazards, causing substantial damage and affecting millions of lives. These events are inherently multi-dimensional, requiring analysis across multiple factors. Traditional research often uses a bivariate framework relying on historical data, but climate change is expected to influence flood frequency analysis and flood system design in the future. This study assesses the projected changes in flood characteristics based on eight downscaled and bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The analysis considers two emission scenarios, including SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for far-future (2070–2100), mid-term future (2040–2070), and historical (1982–2012) periods. Downscaled GCM outputs are utilized as predictors of the machine learning model to simulate daily streamflow. Then, a trivariate copula-based framework assesses flood events in terms of duration, volume, and flood peak in the Kan River basin, Iran. These analyses are carried out using the hierarchical Archimedean copula in three structures, and their accuracy in estimating the flood frequencies is ultimately compared. The results show that a heterogeneous asymmetric copula offers more flexibility to capture varying degrees of asymmetry across different parts of the distribution, leading to more accurate modeling results compared to homogeneous asymmetric and symmetric copulas. Also it has been found that climate change can influence the trivariate joint return periods, particularly in the far future. In other words, flood frequency may increase by approximately 50% in some cases in the far future compared to the mid-term future and historical period. This demonstrates that flood characteristics are expected to show nonstationary behavior in the future as a result of climate change. The results provide insightful information for managing and accessing flood risk in a dynamic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate flood prediction is critical for effective disaster management and mitigation. This study employs deep learning models, including Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), to enhance flood forecasting for both water level and flood inundation predictions. By integrating upstream river flow, river water level, and tidal level data, the models aim to improve prediction accuracy. Water level forecasting involved evaluating GRU and LSTM models across four scenarios over lead times up to 24 hours, using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Nash- Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) as performance metrics. The results showed that GRU models consistently outperformed LSTM models when using all three parameters, while LSTM exhibited the worst performance, with higher RMSE and lower NSE values. For flood inundation prediction, CNNs were employed using Sentinel-1 GRD images as target data. Scenarios incorporating all three parameters achieved the highest average True Positive Rate (TPR) for both non-flooded and flooded areas, underscoring the value of integrating diverse data sources for accurate flood predictions. This research presents a sustainable, real-time flood prediction solution that reduces computational time while maintaining high accuracy. The findings support smarter water management strategies, aiding authorities in minimizing flood impacts on communities and infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents the approach used to estimate coastal flood impact, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project, for assessing flood direct impacts on population, buildings, and roads along European coasts. The methodology integrates object-based and probabilistic evaluations to provide uncertainty estimates for damage assessment. The approach underwent a user-driven co-evaluation process. It was applied to 16 test cases across Europe and validated against reported impact data in three major reference cases: Xynthia in La Faute-sur-Mer (France) in 2010, Xaver in Norfolk (UK) in 2013, and Emma in Cádiz (Spain) in 2018. A comparison with grid-based damage evaluation methods was also conducted. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches. The methodology also provides information for prevention and preparedness activities, and it facilitates further evaluations of risk scenarios and cost–benefit analysis of disaster risk reduction strategies. The approach is a tool suitable for large-scale coastal flood impact assessments, offering improved accuracy and operational capability for coastal flood forecasts. It represents a potential advancement of the existing European-scale impact method used by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) for riverine flood warnings. The integration of object-based and probabilistic evaluations, along with uncertainty estimation, enhances the understanding and management of flood impacts along European coasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of China Rural Water & Hydropower is the property of China Rural Water & Hydropower Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of China Rural Water & Hydropower is the property of China Rural Water & Hydropower Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Pearl River is the property of Pearl River Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Accurately modeling and predicting flood flows across multiple sites within a watershed presents significant challenges due to potential issues of insufficient accuracy and excessive computational demands in existing methodologies. In response to these challenges, this study introduces a novel approach centered around the use of vine copula models, termed RDV-Copula (reduced-dimension vine copula construction approach). The core of this methodology lies in its ability to integrate and extract complex data before constructing the copula function, thus preserving the intricate spatial–temporal connections among multiple sites while substantially reducing the vine copula's complexity. This study performs a synchronization frequency analysis using the devised copula models, offering valuable insights into flood encounter probabilities. Additionally, the innovative approach undergoes validation by comparison with three benchmark models which vary in dimensions and nature of variable interactions. Furthermore, the study conducts stochastic simulations, exploring both unconditional and conditional scenarios across different vine copula models. Applied in the Shifeng Creek watershed, China, the findings reveal that vine copula models are superior in capturing complex variable relationships, demonstrating significant spatial interconnectivity crucial for flood risk prediction in heavy-rainfall events. Interestingly, the study observes that expanding the model's dimensions does not inherently enhance simulation precision. The RDV-Copula method not only captures comprehensive information effectively but also simplifies the vine copula model by reducing its dimensionality and complexity. This study contributes to the field of hydrology by offering a refined method for analyzing and simulating multi-site flood flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structures and parameters of physically-based distributed hydrological models (PBDHMs) can now be established and derived from remote-sensing data with relative ease. When engineers apply PBDHMs for flood forecasting in mesoscale catchments, they encounter varying rain gauge infrastructure conditions. Understanding model performance expectations under varying rain gauge density conditions is crucial for wide PDBHM construction. This study presents a case study of a PBDHM called the Liuxihe Model and examines six rain gauge density scenarios designed based on real-world data to assess the impact of rain gauge density on model flood forecasting performance. The study focuses on a mesoscale catchment in Jiangxi Province, China, covering an area of 2364 km2 with 62 rain gauges. The results indicate that models optimized under an adequate rain gauge density condition are less affected by gauge density changes, maintaining accuracy within a range of change. Compared to Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), the indicators absolute peak time error (APTE) and peak relative error (PRE) are less sensitive to variation in rain gauge density. The study further discusses how rain gauge density changes related to the interpolated rainfall surfaces and parameter optimization, hoping to facilitate the broader application of PBDHMs and offer insights for future practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explored how dam operation and rainfall patterns interact to influence flooding in the Niger Delta, Nigeria. This study utilizes Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data to analyze the flood events from 2018 to 2022, focusing on key locations such as Obiafu (downstream), Kainji/Jebba, and Lagdo dams (upstream). Analyzed Sentinel-1 satellite data [European Space Agency (ESA), 2018–2022], shuttle Radar Topography Mission, alongside rainfall data [Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS), 2018–2022] and surface water level to assess flood variations between 2018 and 2022. The flood extent was differentiated from that of permanent water bodies using Sentinel-1 images with an RGB band (Snap 7.0), and the rainfall patterns were examined via inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation (ArcGIS 10.5). The findings reveal that the intensity and timing of flooding vary significantly across these regions. Obiafu experienced high flooding in October 2020 and 2022, while Kainji/Jebba and Lagdo dams had contrasting flood severities during these periods. Additionally, a comparative analysis of hydrograph data from these locations shows a delayed downstream response, highlighting the need for coordinated water release strategies to mitigate flood risks. The results also indicate that upstream dam operations, particularly water releases, contribute to downstream flooding, although local rainfall patterns remain a crucial factor. By aligning SAR data with real-time water levels, this study emphasizes the importance of integrating satellite-based monitoring with hydrological models to improve flood prediction accuracy and minimize socio-economic impacts in the Niger Delta. The study concludes that enhanced flood management strategies, incorporating both rainfall forecasting and dam operation schedules, are critical for reducing flood-related vulnerabilities in the region. Highlights: Sentinel-1 SAR effectively mapped flooding, with peak levels in October 2022 in the Niger Delta. September and October floods link rainfall peaks and dam releases, heightening flood risks. Coordinated dam water release could reduce downstream flood severity in low-lying areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting flood characteristics (e.g., water levels and velocity) is a growing concern due to climate change. It is therefore necessary to consider the stability conditions of earthen levees used to mitigate floods during a flood risk assessment. This technical note presents a method to assess probabilistic flood hazard that takes into account levee failures, for a levee located along Etobicoke Creek in Toronto, Canada. We compute flood scenario probabilities resulting from multiple flood scenarios that accounts for both the levee failures across the length of the levee, and different levee-failure mechanisms (e.g., backward erosion and overtopping). Then, for each location of the flooded area, we compute a cumulative flood exceedance probability curve for flood depth and velocity. This method provides a flood-hazard map (depth and velocity) for a given probability and probabilistic maps for given values of depth or velocity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods, one of the costliest, and most frequent hazards, are expected to worsen in the U.S. due to climate change. The real-time forecasting of flood inundations is extremely important for proactive decision-making to reduce damage. However, traditional forecasting methods face challenges in terms of implementation and scalability due to computational burdens and data availability issues. Current forecasting services in the U.S. largely rely on hydrodynamic modeling, limited to river reaches near in situ gauges and requiring extensive data for model setup and calibration. Here, we have successfully adapted the Forecasting Inundation Extents using REOF (FIER) analysis framework to produce forecasted water fraction maps in two U.S. flood-prone regions, specifically the Red River of the North Basin and the Upper Mississippi Alluvial Plain, utilizing Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) optical imagery and the National Water Model. Comparing against historical VIIRS imagery for the same dates, FIER 1- to 8-day medium-range pseudo-forecasts show that about 70–80% of pixels exhibit absolute errors of less than 30%. Although originally developed utilizing Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images, this study demonstrated FIER's versatility and effectiveness in flood forecasting by demonstrating its successful adaptation with optical VIIRS imagery which provides daily water fraction product, offering more historical observations to be used as inputs for FIER during peak flood times, particularly in regions where flooding commonly happens in a short period rather than following a broad seasonal pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disasters that occur in modern cities are considered complex disasters because of several urban factors. One type of disaster that exemplifies this complexity is urban flooding, which causes long-term consequences for urban facilities, is an example of such a complex disaster. Floods evolved into complex disasters because of various social and urban factors, resulting in extensive harm to urban facilities and resources. This paper proposes a crowdmovement-based geofence-construction method for collective-intelligence-based evacuation in flooding scenarios. The proposed method can be used to perform area construction based on prior flood predictions, capture crowd movements during disasters, and block roads in urban built environments. This paper presents a qualitative analysis of the area and road construction for four scenarios of agent evacuation strategies and a quantitative analysis of the effect of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that evacuation routes are more effective when the user movements are based on road networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of LHB: Hydroscience Journal is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Human activities and climate change have significantly influenced the water cycle, impacting flood risks and water security. This study centers on the Jing River Basin in the Chinese Loess Plateau, analyzing hydrological patterns and flood progression using the HEC-HMS model under changing conditions. The findings indicate that climate change substantially affects flood predictions, increasing peak flows and volumes by up to 10.9% and 11.1%, respectively. It is essential to recognize that traditional flood models may underestimate the risks posed by these changes, emphasizing the necessity for updated methods incorporating climatic and human factors. Changes in land use, such as the expansion of grasslands and forests, have reduced peak discharges and flood volumes. Consequently, the combined impacts of climate and land use changes have intensified flood frequencies, necessitating updated strategies to manage risks effectively. The dynamics of flooding are significantly impacted by changes in climate and land use, particularly in minor floods that occur frequently, highlighting the influence of climate change on flooding trends. Within the Jing River Basin, hydrological patterns have been shaped by both climatic variations and human activities, leading to an increase in extreme hydrological events and concerns regarding water security. Using the HEC-HMS model, this study examines the hydrology of the Jing River Basin, focusing on the design of storm events and analyzing various flood characteristics under different scenarios. Climate change has resulted in higher peak discharges and volume surges ranging from 6.3% to 10.9%, while shifts in land use, such as decreases in farmland and the expansion of grasslands, have caused declines ranging from 7.2% to 4.7% in peak flows and volumes. The combined effects of climate variation and land utilization have complex implications for flood patterns, with milder to moderate floods showing a more significant impact and shorter return periods facing increased consequences. These findings underscore the interconnected nature of climate change, land use, and flooding dynamics in the Jing River Basin, highlighting the need for comprehensive strategies to address these challenges and ensure sustainable water management in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of flash flood warnings depends on people's response processes to the warnings. And false warnings and missed events cause people's negative responses. It is crucial to find a way to determine the threshold of issuing the warnings that reduces the false-warning ratio (FWR) and the missed-event ratio (MER), especially for uncertain flash flood forecasting. However, most studies determine the warning threshold based on the natural processes of flash floods rather than the social processes of warning responses. Therefore, an agent-based model (ABM) was proposed to simulate people's response processes to the warnings. And a simulation chain of rainstorm probability forecasting–decision on issuing warnings–warning response processes was conducted to determine the warning threshold based on the ABM. The town of Liulin in China was selected as a case study to demonstrate the proposed method. The results show that the optimal warning threshold decreases as forecasting accuracy increases. And as forecasting variance or the variance of the forecasting variance increases, the optimal warning threshold decreases (increases) for low (high) forecasting accuracy. Adjusting the warning threshold according to people's tolerance levels to the failed warnings can improve warning effectiveness, but the prerequisite is to increase forecasting accuracy and decrease forecasting variance. The proposed method provides valuable insights into the determination of the warning threshold for improving the effectiveness of flash flood warnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep learning (DL) approaches to forecast precipitation and inundation areas in the short-term forecast horizon have up until now been treated as independent research problems from the model development perspective. However, for the urban hydrology area, the coupling of these models is necessary in order to forecast the upcoming inundation area maps and is, therefore, of the utmost importance for successful flood risk management. In this paper, three deep-learning-based models are coupled in a systematic modular approach with the aim to analyze the performance of this model chain in an operative setup for urban pluvial flooding nowcast: precipitation nowcasting with an adapted version of the NowcastNet model, the forecast of manhole overflow hydrographs with a Seq2Seq model, and the generation of a spatiotemporal sequence of inundation areas in an urban catchment for the upcoming hour with an encoder–decoder model. It can be concluded that the forecast quality still largely depends on the accuracy of the precipitation nowcasting model. With the increasing development of DL models for both precipitation and flood nowcasting, the presented modular approach for model coupling enables the substitution of individual blocks for better and newer models in the model chain without jeopardizing the operation of the flooding forecast system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional coastal flood risk prediction often overlooks critical geographic features, underscoring the need for accurate risk prediction in coastal cities to ensure resilience. This study enhances the prediction of coastal flood occurrence by utilizing the Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) approach. This approach employed models—random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor (kNN), and artificial neural networks (ANN)—and compared them to the IPCC risk framework. This study used El Salvador as a demonstration case. The models incorporated seven input variables: extreme sea level, coastline proximity, elevation, slope, mangrove distance, population, and settlement type. With a recall score of 0.67 and precision of 0.86, the RF model outperformed the other models and the IPCC approach, which could avoid imbalanced datasets and standard scaler issues. The RF model improved the reliability of flood risk assessments by reducing false negatives. Based on the RF model output, scenario analysis predicted a significant increase in flood occurrences by 2100, mainly under RCP8.5 with SSP5. The study also highlights that the continuous mangrove along the coastline will reduce coastal flood occurrences. The GeoAI approach results suggest its potential for coastal flood risk management, emphasizing the need to integrate natural defenses, such as mangroves, for coastal resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One method for estimating floods in areas lacking statistical data is the use of regional frequency analysis based on machine learning. In this study, statistical and clustering-based approaches were evaluated for flood estimation in the Karkheh watershed. The hydrological homogeneity of the obtained zones was then assessed using linear moments and heterogeneity adjustment methods proposed by Hosking and Wallis. Then, the ZDIST statistic was used to calculate the three-parameter distributions for stations within each hydrologically homogeneous cluster. These parameters were computed using linear moments, and floods with different return periods at each station were estimated using regional relationships. The results indicated the creation of two clusters in this area, with five stations in cluster one and 11 stations in cluster two. The statistical homogeneity values for clusters one and two were calculated as 0.33 and 0.17, respectively, indicating the homogeneity of each region. Generalized Pearson type III and generalized extreme value distributions were selected as the best regional distributions for clusters 1 and 2, respectively. The results also showed that floods could be estimated for return periods of 2, 5, 25 years, and more. The highest estimated flood is predicted at the Jelugir-e Majin station, where the flood with a 2-year return period reaches 1034 m3 s−1. This increases to 5360 m3 s−1 for a 100-year return period. The approach presented in this study is recommended for similar regions lacking complete information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research describes experiments using LSTM, GRU models, and a combination of both to predict floods in Semarang based on time series data. The results show that the LSTM model is superior in capturing long-term dependencies, while GRU is better in processing short-term patterns. By combining the strengths of both models, this hybrid approach achieves better accuracy and robustness in flood prediction. The LSTM-GRU hybrid model outperforms the individual models, providing a more reliable prediction framework. This performance improvement is due to the complementary strengths of LSTM and GRU in handling various aspects of time series data. These findings emphasize the potential of advanced neural network models in addressing complex environmental challenges, paving the way for more effective flood management strategies in Semarang. The performance graph of the LSTM, GRU, and LSTM-GRU models in various scenarios shows significant differences in the performance of predicting river water levels based on rainfall input. The MAPE, MSE, RMSE, and MAD metrics are presented for training and validation data in six scenarios. Overall, the GRU model and the LSTM-GRU combination provide good performance when using more complete input variables, namely, downstream and upstream rainfall, compared to only using downstream rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan faces intense rainfall during typhoon seasons, leading to rapid increases in water level in rivers. Accurate flood forecasting in rivers is essential for protecting lives and property. The objective of this study is to develop a river flood forecasting model combining multiple additive regression trees (MART) and ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF). MART, a machine learning technique, predicts water levels for internal boundary conditions, correcting a one-dimensional (1D) unsteady flow model. EnKF further refines these predictions, enabling precise real-time forecasts of water levels in the Danshui River system for up to three hours lead time. The model was calibrated and validated using observed data from four historical typhoons to evaluate its accuracy. For the present time at three water level stations in the Danshui River system, the root mean square error (RMSE) ranged from 0.088 to 0.343 m, while the coefficient of determination (R2) ranged from 0.954 to 0.999. The validated model (module 1) was divided into two additional modules: module 2, which combined the ensemble unsteady flow model with inner boundary correction and MART, and module 3, which featured an ensemble 1D unsteady flow model without inner boundary correction. These modules were employed to forecast water levels at three stations from the present time to 3 h lead time during Typhoon Muifa in 2022. The study revealed that the Tu-Ti-Kung-Pi station was less affected by inner boundaries due to significant tidal influences. Consequently, excluding the upstream and downstream boundaries, Tu-Ti-Kung-Pi station showed a superior RMSE trend from present time to 3 h lead time across all three modules. Conversely, the Taipei Bridge and Bailing Bridge stations began using inner boundary forecast values for correction from 1 h to 3 h lead times. This increased the uncertainty of the inner boundary, resulting in higher RMSE values for these locations in modules 1 and 2 compared to module 3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological modeling plays a crucial role in water resource management, flood prediction, and environmental planning, with widespread usage in predicting the behavior of catchment systems. However, these models often face significant uncertainties, particularly in parameter estimation, due to limited data and incomplete understanding of natural processes. This study addresses these challenges by applying Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to the MEDOR ("Méditerranée Orientale") rainfall–runoff conceptual model applied to the Nahr Ibrahim watershed in Lebanon. The ABC method, which avoids the need for a formal likelihood function, reduces uncertainty and improves the accuracy of predictions. Results demonstrate enhanced model performance, with improved correlation and reduced errors compared to traditional calibration methods. This approach underscores the potential of ABC as a robust tool for reducing uncertainties in hydrological modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing frequency and severity of floods due to climate change underscores the need for precise flood forecasting systems. This study focuses on the region surrounding Wuppertal in Germany, known for its high precipitation levels, as a case study to evaluate the effectiveness of flood prediction through deep learning models. Our primary objectives are twofold: (1) to establish a robust dataset from the Wupper river basin, containing over 19 years of time series data from three sensor types such as water level, discharge, and precipitation at multiple locations, and (2) to assess the predictive performance of nine advanced machine learning algorithms, including Pyraformer, TimesNet, and SegRNN, in providing reliable flood warnings 6 to 48 h in advance, based on 48 h of input data. Our models, trained and validated using k-fold cross-validation, achieved high quantitative performance metrics, with an accuracy reaching up to 99.7% and F1-scores up to 91%. Additionally, we analyzed model performance relative to the number of sensors by systematically reducing the sensor count, which led to a noticeable decline in both accuracy and F1-score. These findings highlight critical trade-offs between sensor coverage and predictive reliability. By publishing this comprehensive dataset alongside performance benchmarks, we aim to drive further innovation in flood risk management and resilience strategies, addressing urgent needs in climate adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Damage and disruption from flooding have rapidly escalated over recent decades. Knowing who and what is at risk, how these risks are changing, and what is driving these changes is of immense importance to flood management and policy. Accurate predictions of flood risk are also critical to public safety. However, many high‐profile research studies reporting risks at national and global scales rely upon a significant oversimplification of how floods behave—as a level pool—an approach known as bathtub modeling that is avoided in flood management practice due to known biases (e.g., >200% error in flood area) compared to physics‐based modeling. With publicity by news media, findings that would likely not be trusted by flood management professionals are thus widely communicated to policy makers and the public, scientific credibility is put at risk, and maladaptation becomes more likely. Here, we call upon researchers to abandon the practice of bathtub modeling in flood risk studies, and for those involved in the peer‐review process to ensure the conclusions of impact analyses are consistent with the limitations of the assumed flood physics. We document biases and uncertainties from bathtub modeling in both coastal and inland geographies, and we present examples of physics‐based modeling approaches suited to large‐scale applications. Reducing biases and uncertainties in flood hazard estimates will sharpen scientific understanding of changing risks, better serve the needs of policy makers, enable news media to more objectively report present and future risks to the public, and better inform adaptation planning. Plain Language Summary: Numerous studies of flood risks under climate change, such as changing sea levels and flood hydrology, assess exposure by assuming that projected water levels for oceans and rivers extend horizontally across the land surface. However, this represents a significant over‐simplification of flooding that can strongly bias estimates of flood exposure (e.g., a factor of two error). Of particular concern is that biased results sometimes feed into climate hype from the news media, which can undermine public trust in climate science. Data and models suited to more complete modeling of flooding are presented. Key Points: Estimates of flood risks can be strongly biased by bathtub hazard modelingPhysics‐based modeling reduces flood risk bias compared to bathtub modeling and is now feasible globallyShort‐format, high‐impact journals have contributed to "climate hype" stemming from biased bathtub modeling studies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Amidst growing concerns over climate-induced extreme weather events, precise flood forecasting becomes imperative, especially in regions like the Chaersen Basin where data scarcity compounds the challenge. Traditional hydrologic models, while reliable, often fall short in areas with insufficient observational data. This study introduces a hybrid modeling approach that combines the deep learning capabilities of the Informer model with the robust hydrological simulation by the WRF-Hydro model to enhance runoff predictions in such data-sparse regions. Trained initially on the diverse and extensive CAMELS dataset in the United States, the Informer model successfully applied its learned insights to predict runoff in the Chaersen Basin, leveraging transfer learning to bridge data gaps. Concurrently, the WRF-Hydro model, when integrated with The Global Forecast System (GFS) data, provided a basis for comparison and further refinement of flood prediction accuracy. The integration of these models resulted in a significant improvement in prediction precision. The synergy between the Informer’s advanced pattern recognition and the physical modeling strength of the WRF-Hydro significantly enhanced the prediction accuracy. The final predictions for the years 2015 and 2016 demonstrated notable increases in the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the Index of Agreement (IOA) metrics, confirming the effectiveness of the hybrid model in capturing complex hydrological dynamics during runoff predictions. Specifically, in 2015, the NSE improved from 0.5 with WRF-Hydro and 0.63 with the Informer model to 0.66 using the hybrid model, while in 2016, the NSE increased from 0.42 to 0.76. Similarly, the IOA in 2015 rose from 0.83 with WRF-Hydro and 0.84 with the Informer model to 0.87 using the hybrid approach, and in 2016, it increased from 0.78 to 0.92. Further investigation into the respective contributions of the WRF-Hydro and the Informer models revealed that the hybrid model achieved the optimal performance when the contribution of the Informer model was maintained between 60%-80%.

Abstract In response to increasing flood risks driven by the climate crisis, urban areas require advanced forecasting and informed decision-making to support sustainable development. This study seeks to improve the reliability of reservoir-based flood forecasting and ensure adequate lead time for effective response measures. The main objectives are to predict hourly downstream flood discharge at a reference point, compare discharge predictions from a single reservoir with a four-hour lead time against those from three reservoirs with a seven-hour lead time, and evaluate the accuracy of data-driven approaches. The study takes place in the Han River Basin, located in Seoul, South Korea. Approaches include two non-deep learning (NDL) (random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR)) and two deep learning (DL) (long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU)). Scenario 1 incorporates data from three reservoirs, while Scenario 2 focuses solely on Paldang reservoir. Results show that RF performed 4.03% (in R 2) better than SVR, while GRU performed 4.69% (in R 2) better than LSTM in Scenario 1. In Scenario 2, none of the models showed any outstanding performance. Based on these findings, we propose a two-step reservoir-based approach: Initial predictions should utilize models for three upstream reservoirs with long lead time, while closer to the event, the model should focus on a single reservoir with more accurate prediction. This work stands as a significant contribution, making accurate and well-timed predictions for the local administrations to issue flood warnings and execute evacuations to mitigate flood damage and casualties in urban areas.

Abstract Accurate flood forecasting is crucial for flood prevention and mitigation, safeguarding the lives and properties of residents, as well as the rational use of water resources. The study proposes a model of long and short-term memory (LSTM) combined with the vector direction (VD) of the flood process. The Jingle and Lushi basins were selected as the research objects, and the model was trained and validated using 50 and 49 measured flood rainfall-runoff data in a 7:3 division ratio, respectively. The results indicate that the VD-LSTM model has more advantages than the LSTM model, with increased NSE, and reduced RMSE and bias to varying degrees. The flow simulation results of VD-LSTM better match the observed flow hydrographs, improving the underestimation of peak flows and the lag issue of the model. Under the same task and dataset, with the same hyperparameter settings, VD-LSTM can more quickly reduce the loss function value and achieve a better fit compared to LSTM. The proposed VD-LSTM model couples the vectorization process of flood runoff with the LSTM neural network, which contributes to the model better exploring the change characteristics of rising and receding water in flood runoff processes, reducing the training gradient error of input–output data for the LSTM model, and more effectively simulating flood process.