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Understanding the relationship between risk and government bond returns is crucial for assessing the influence of risk factors on bond returns. This study investigates the dynamics of risk-taking behavior and its impact on the performance of government bonds in Indonesia. Using monthly data spanning from January 2017 to December 2021, we employ a multifactor model with GARCH analysis technique to analyze the data. The findings reveal that risk exposure exerts a negative and significant effect on government bond returns in Indonesia, while market factors also negatively and significantly influence bond returns. Conversely, the joint stock performance exhibits a positive relationship and significantly impacts returns in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThe objective of this research is to assess the effect of holding government securities on the credit channel, taking into account the heterogeneity of WAEMU banks’ balance sheets. The methodology adopted to achieve this objective is VAR panel modelling, proposed by Abrigo and Love. The generalized moment method was applied to a sample of 95 commercial banks operating in the WAEMU covering the period 2000–2019. The main results show that a strong presence of government securities in banks’ balance sheets contributes to the reinforcement of the financial crowding-out effect in the WAEMU. This crowding-out effect differs from one category of bank to another. Indeed, the negative relationship between government securities and the credit channel is more pronounced among large banks, national banks and pan-African banks, in contrast to other bank categories in this Union. The results also point to an asymmetrical effect of monetary policy on the lending behaviour of WAEMU banks to private borrowers. However, the WAEMU monetary authorities should step up supervision of banks that hold a large proportion of sovereign debt on their balance sheets. The high proportion of sovereign debt on banks’ balance sheets creates situations of interdependence. This could have negative consequences on the solvency of banks and therefore on the stability of the banking system in the Union.

Copyright of Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Discussion Papers is the property of Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the context of escalating military and political uncertainties, a crucial component of banking system stability is the establishment of an adequate level of resource provision – liquidity. The research aims to analyze the transmission impact of the banking system's liquidity and its structure on the volumes of financing for the real sector of the economy in the second year of the war in Ukraine. In the conditions of war and the corresponding intensification of military-political threats and uncertainties, the regulator has made numerous complex decisions and restrictions aimed at balancing the challenges with the current situation in financial markets. The research found that the banking sector of Ukraine currently accumulates a significant amount of excess liquidity and demonstrates high profitability. However, in the conditions of war, the transmission mechanism works improperly, requiring constant intervention from the regulator to balance the liquidity of the banking sector and state finances, which, in turn, affects the behavior of commercial banks and changes the structure of their asset portfolios. An analysis of the structure of active operations portfolios of the banking, corporate, and private sectors provide grounds to assert that there is no reason to expect a change in investment behavior from these groups in the perspective of the next year due to the specificity of the conditions imposed by the Ministry of Finance and the regulator. To maintain macroeconomic stability in the national economy in the conditions of martial law it is necessary to introduce conditions to reduce demand for foreign currency and, as an alternative, offer the preservation of savings solvency through simplifying access to investments in government securities for households. The low financial literacy of the population and the underdeveloped stock market in Ukraine, as well as the more complex mechanism of purchasing government bonds or military bonds compared to deposit services, make such investments by the population insignificant and limited in demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new lesson for banking sector came on March 10th 2023, when the bank, which had $212bn of assets, failed with spectacular speed, making it the biggest lender to collapse since the global financial crisis of 2007–2009. By loading up on long-term bonds, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) had taken an enormous unhedged bet on interest rates staying low. That bet went wrong, leaving the bank insolvent.

We analyze the predictive ability of real‐time macroeconomic information for the yield curve of interest rates. We specify a mixed‐frequency macro‐yields model in real time that incorporates interest rate surveys and treats macroeconomic factors as unobservable components. Results indicate that real‐time macroeconomic information is helpful to predict interest rates, and that data revisions drive a superior predictive ability of revised macro data over real‐time macro data. We also find that interest rate surveys can have significant predictive power over and above real‐time macroeconomic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of escalating military and political uncertainties, a crucial component of banking system stability is the establishment of an adequate level of resource provision – liquidity. The research aims to analyze the transmission impact of the banking system's liquidity and its structure on the volumes of financing for the real sector of the economy in the second year of the war in Ukraine. In the conditions of war and the corresponding intensification of military-political threats and uncertainties, the regulator has made numerous complex decisions and restrictions aimed at balancing the challenges with the current situation in financial markets. The research found that the banking sector of Ukraine currently accumulates a significant amount of excess liquidity and demonstrates high profitability. However, in the conditions of war, the transmission mechanism works improperly, requiring constant intervention from the regulator to balance the liquidity of the banking sector and state finances, which, in turn, affects the behavior of commercial banks and changes the structure of their asset portfolios. An analysis of the structure of active operations portfolios of the banking, corporate, and private sectors provides grounds to assert that there is no reason to expect a change in investment behavior from these groups in the perspective of the next year due to the specificity of the conditions imposed by the Ministry of Finance and the regulator. To maintain macroeconomic stability in the national economy in the conditions of martial law it is necessary to introduce conditions to reduce demand for foreign currency and, as an alternative, offer the preservation of savings solvency through simplifying access to investments in government securities for households. The low financial literacy of the population and the underdeveloped stock market in Ukraine, as well as the more complex mechanism of purchasing government bonds or military bonds compared to deposit services, make such investments by the population insignificant and limited in demand.

The aim of the article is to study the features of the use of anti-crisis monetary instruments to support liquidity at the macro level and ensure financial stability in Ukraine in the context of the ongoing full-scale military invasion of the russian federation. The NBU is facing new challenges and tasks related to maintaining the functional capacity of banks, prudent actions aimed at supporting liquidity and financial stability of the banking system. It has already been proved that both a shortage and a surplus of liquidity can be the starting point of a shock explosion in the economy. A comparative-dynamic analysis of the main monetary indicators of the money sphere has been carried out, which has shown their dynamism, controllability, and relative stability. It is noted that in the context of the «unattainable triad», or the Mundell-Fleming trilemma, an independent monetary policy was introduced with respect to the currency, but under the influence of non-monetary factors influencing the monetary sphere, there is a twisting of the spiral of liquidity and the formation of its surplus. Transactions with government bonds and certificates of deposit, which, unlike government bonds, are not a socially useful transaction, do not always achieve the goals of ensuring financial stability and liquidity management under martial law. Monetary transmission in the government securities market does not have a positive effect due to the mandatory military spending of the government of Ukraine. For banks, these operations are a source of profitable liquidity. Due to the non-working transmission mechanism, the inconsistency of the actions of the government and the central bank, in particular, the dynamics of the interest rate does not have a stabilizing effect on the economy.

In the current operating conditions, the stock market, as a type of the financial market, occupies a significant place in ensuring the proper level of economic and financial development of each individual country. It has been considered that in Ukraine, the activity of the stock market is determined by the relevant infrastructure, which includes stock exchanges, securities traders, investment funds, companies, etc. It has been revealed that the stock market is currently in the stage of development. The quality of the infrastructure, the inconsistency of the regulatory and legal basis, the insufficiency of appropriate financial instruments, the instability of the stock market, the fragility of the financial system etc., remain the main problems, which require further solutions. Based on the example of basic indicators, the dynamics of the issue of shares and bonds, the volume of trading in financial instruments and the main types of securities, the structure of the exchange turnover of financial instruments by type of securities, as well as the volume of trading in securities on the primary and secondary stock markets for 2014-2022 have been analyzed. For the formation and stimulation of an effective and efficient stock market in Ukraine, it has been proposed to improve the mechanism for ensuring the transparency and availability of financial instruments, by strengthening state support in this context, ensuring the transparency of transactions and a certain form of protection of the investment institution by introducing certified software. Adaptation of international experience regarding the functioning of the stock market as a whole, and its components, provides an opportunity of implementing modern approaches regarding the introduction of the latest platforms, programs and other financial products, which will allow to expand the stock market operation area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the need for transition economies to finance some of the investment required for development through borrowing, this paper empirically examines the determinants of government bond spreads, focusing on institutional quality as a contextual dimension. The literature generally assumes that market assessments of sovereign risk - i.e., the probability of default - and hence the cost of sovereign borrowing over the risk-free rate are based on the borrower’s macroeconomic fundamentals, solvency, and liquidity indicators related to fiscal and financial variables, and indicators of external financial market volatility. Using fixed effect estimation, our findings suggest that government bond spreads in European transition economies are sensitive to domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and global financial market volatility. From macroeconomic fundamentals, fiscal deficit levels, inflation rates, and countries’ effective exchange rates emerge as the leading indicators determining bond spreads over the observed period. Moreover, our results suggest that financial markets consider the quality of institutions when assessing default probabilities; hence, the potential risks arising from the quality of institutions are factored into the cost of sovereign borrowing. These results are robust to various extensions and robustness tests.

We explore the effects of reducing the overall size of the central bank's balance sheet and lowering its maturity structure. To do so, we consider an environment where fiscal policy is traditionally passive and the central bank follows the Taylor principle. In addition, the monetary authority has also explicit size and compositional rules regarding its balance sheet. Agents in this economy face limited commitment in some markets and government bonds can be used as collateral. When short‐ and long‐term public debt exhibit premia, changes in the central bank's balance sheet have implications for long‐run inflation and real allocations. To ensure a unique locally stable steady state, the central bank should target a low enough maturity composition of its balance sheet. In our numerical exercise, calibrated to the United States, we find that long‐term debt holdings by the central bank should be less than 0.5 times of their short‐term positions. Moreover, the process of balance sheet normalization should aggressively respond to the total debt issued in the economy relative to its target. These findings depend on the degree of liquidity of long‐term bonds. The more liquid long‐term bonds are, the lower is the value of the composition threshold and the parameter space consistent with unique and stable equilibria is smaller. In addition, we consider a modified Taylor rule that takes into account the premium. Such a rule increases the prevalence of multiplicity of steady states and delivers lower welfare. Thus, we argue that the traditional Taylor rule is appropriate for managing interest rates in the presence of premia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the need of transition economies to fund the investments necessary for development partly through borrowing, this paper investigates empirically the economic consequences of the government cost of borrowing for European transition economies during the period 2003-2016. The investigation analyses the impact of sovereign borrowing costs, in turn, on interest rates on loans to businesses and households, on the growth rates of investment and consumption, and, ultimately, on general economic activity. By utilizing a panel VAR technique our results indicate that consequent upon a positive shock to the cost of sovereign borrowing, the cost of borrowing for loans to both Non-Financial Corporations (NFCs) and households increases. We find that the price transmission from government borrowing costs to the private sector is at play with respect not only to borrowing rates but also to macroeconomic activity at large. Following an increase in sovereign borrowing costs, we observe substantial negative responses in the growth rates of investment, household consumption, and GDP growth. Also, while a price of borrowing increase for NFCs is found to negatively affect investment, household consumption is unaffected by an increase in household borrowing rates. These findings have valuable policy implications for policymakers and stakeholders in transition economies. Specifically, the results suggest that efforts to reduce the cost of sovereign borrowing could have a positive impact on the economy by lowering borrowing costs for households and businesses, promoting investment and consumption, and ultimately boosting economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether the COVID-19 cases and death rates affect the dynamic correlation of corporate-government bond yields. Therefore, this study uses the daily corporate bond data with different ratings of bonds along with the COVID-19 data at both the US and global levels. Using the quantile regression approach, it produces the following results. First, the impact of daily cases differs from that of death rates both locally and globally. Second, the impact of local cases and death cases on the government-AAA yields correlation at a given quantile tends to reverse when the BBB bonds are used in the analysis. Third, global death rates significantly affect the correlation series the most at the higher quantiles. Lastly, AAA-rated bonds show higher sensitivity to COVID-19 cases and death rates than BBB-rated bonds. This finding indicates that relatively high-quality bonds are more susceptible to the pandemic period and thus calls for careful evaluation of assets included in investors’ portfolios. This study assumes that local COVID-19 data provide a better implication for constructing bond portfolios than global data. That is, their economic impact depends on the rating of the bond and tends to vary more across correlation quantiles.

The text deals with certain problems of taxation in the Czech Republic of passive income from bonds, namely government bonds and Eurobonds. It follows in brief the historical development of taxation by income taxes of interest yields from bonds over the last 30 years, i.e., from the inception of the first tax system of the independent Czech Republic. It takes notice of the fluctuations of tax exemptions over the time and attempts to establish, sometimes not very discernible, reasons for the introduction and abolition of such exemptions. It criticizes the lack of stability and adherence to legal principles of the statutory regulation resulting in a potential negative impact of the same on Czech bond issuers and investors in financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper is to show, using a simple two-period overlapping generations model in which goods are produced solely by labour in a monopolistically competitive industry, that a continuous budget deficit (including the interest payments on government bonds) is necessary to achieve and maintain full employment under economic growth driven by technological progress. Since the budget deficits must be continuous, it might be better if they were financed by seigniorage rather than government debt. Since the budget deficit due to the issuance of government bonds puts pressure on fiscal expenditures in the amount of interest payments, a budget deficit of the same size due to seigniorage is a more effective use of the budget. It will also be shown that to achieve full employment from a recession with involuntary unemployment the extra budget deficit is necessary.

The subject of the study is the financial system and monetary regulation of the economy during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. The purpose of the article is to investigate the monetary policy pursued by the national Central banks of developed countries in the context of the economic crisis caused by pandemic. The paper uses comparative analysis, a systematic approach to the study of information, as well as graphical and tabular methods. The author considers monetary policy instruments used by national Central banks of developed countries to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the real sector of the economy. The study reveals distinctive features of anti-crisis measures of monetary regulation bodies.

The aim of the paper is to show, using a simple two-period overlapping generations model in which goods are produced solely by labour in a monopolistically competitive industry, that a continuous budget deficit (including the interest payments on government bonds) is necessary to achieve and maintain full employment under economic growth driven by technological progress. Since the budget deficits must be continuous, it might be better if they were financed by seigniorage rather than government debt. Since the budget deficit due to the issuance of government bonds puts pressure on fiscal expenditures in the amount of interest payments, a budget deficit of the same size due to seigniorage is a more effective use of the budget. It will also be shown that to achieve full employment from a recession with involuntary unemployment the extra budget deficit is necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper enriches the existing literature on financial intermediaries' operations in the face of uncertainty by empirically examining the impact of banking uncertainty on banks' security holdings. Using bank-level data in Vietnam during 2007-2019 to compute a micro uncertainty proxy based on the dispersion of bank shocks, we document that banking uncertainty tends to enhance total security holdings at banks. Decomposing aggregate securities into disaggregate components, we find that safer investments (including government bonds and financial institution bonds) dominate the overall impact of banking uncertainty on security holdings, which completely offset a drop in the volume of riskier investments (including corporate bonds and stocks) in times of higher uncertainty. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the impact of banking uncertainty on all security holdings is stronger at riskier banks, thereby implying that bank behavior is likely attributable to the precautionary motive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of the stock market largely characterizes the level of the country’s economy as in general, as it allows to obtain additional financial resources through instruments such as securities. Since the stock market of Ukraine began its formation not so long ago, it can be argued that there are certain shortcomings of its functioning, because it is still at the stage of development. The article analyzes the development of the national securities market, defines the impact of the efficient functioning of the stock market on the overall economic development of the country. The structure of trading volumes in the securities market with financial instruments has been researched and the dominant role of the domestic government loan bonds (OVDPs) in their structure has been concluded. It is determined that the vast majority of securities trades are carried out on the over-the-counter market. The main organizers of trade, namely, «PFTS» and «Perspective», which have the largest share of exchange contracts with securities (92%) are allocated. It is concluded that there are insufficient government intervention and weak legislative framework, lack of adequate infrastructure and an adequate level of transparency. It is defined that the domestic stock market is inferior in terms of capitalization of stock exchanges to other countries, so it needs the support om the part of the State and measures to improve it. Directions to improve the development of the securities market in Ukraine are proposed, which consist in overcoming the structural imbalances of the economy; improving and harmonizing the legislation governing the stock market; ensuring a high level of openness and transparency in the stock market.

The public debt stock is an indicator of high interest at the macroeconomic level and regulated within the European Union by the Maastricht Treaty, which provides a level of public debt of at most 60% of GDP. Romania, as a member state of the EU, must fit this percentage. This article analyzes the evolution of public debt in our countryin terms of dynamics and structure for the period 2000-2018. The evolution of governmental and local public debt, as well as the service of governmental public debt and the differences between the public debt determined according to the EU methodology andthe one determined according to the national methodology is highlighted. Finally, we will draw some conclusions regarding the evolution of the public debt and its sustainability.

This research aims to find the factors that influence the decisions of institutional investors to invest in Government Bonds and Sukuk, as well as to disclose the oversubscribes of State Securities issued by Indonesian government. The investment decisions of investors in this study use a proxy data approach from variables that affect investment decisions. The type of research used is quantitative research using an econometric approach with the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (Dynamic) Model. The research data used is a time series for eleven periods from 2009 to 2020. Data are analyzed using ARDL (Dynamic) Model with determination of lag using the Koyck model. The result of this research is that investment decisions with a rational approach to government bonds and sukuk are strongly influenced by macroeconomic and policy variables (inflation, exchange rates and the interest rate) and financial markets (financing interest rates, deposit rates, volumes and coupon rates). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Safe assets are recognized as being the cornerstone of contemporary financial systems. Due to financial globalization and massive international capital flows, they transformed into global safe assets, meaning that both demand and supply sides can be created by international investors. The article consists of two main parts. The first one concentrates on the theoretical issues of safe assets: definitions, attributes, categories of investors who search for them, as well as categories of suppliers. The theoretical considerations lead to the conclusions that only debt instruments can be used as safe assets, and due to limited substitutability between private and public issues, only the latter can perform this function properly, especially in times of stress. In the context of global safe asset considerations, it seems reasonable that only countries issuing reserve currencies can become public issuers of safe assets. The empirical analysis presented in the second part of the article confirms the theoretical predictions. A study of sovereign bond yield differentials conducted for two groups of countries (issuers of reserve currency and non‑issuers but possessing the highest credit ratings) shows that in the period 2005-2017, the spreads in the first group were depressed by the mere fact they held the status of a reserve currency issuer.

The paper concerns the impact of announcements published by rating agencies on the government bond yield in selected countries of the world. Ratings assigned to debt securities on account of the issuer’s financial standing are an important determinant of their yield. Factors that affect the rate of return of a given traded debt, in addition to idiosyncratic factors, i.e. those related to the issuer’s economy, and global factors, also include the ratings of connected countries. Moreover, empirical studies carried out in this area prove that the relationship is asymmetrical. This allows us to suppose that favourable information concerning the improvement of government bond ratings is not reflected in the decrease in their yield. The aim of the paper is the analysis of interactions between the yields of 10‑year government bonds issued by selected economies. A subject that is of particular interest is the evaluation of the impact of positive and negative changes in credit rating assessments made by international agencies on the yield of bonds issued by other economies than the country concerned in the assessment. The spatial scope of the analysis concerns 10‑year government bonds issued by 40 countries in the period of 2008-2017. In the study, dynamic spatial models for pooled time series and cross‑sectional data and dynamic spatial panel data models were used.

Indonesia sovereign bonds are investment graded bonds, therefore, it will have global exposure and it will be more interlinked with global market condition. The purpose of this research is to examine the impacts of US bond yield, exchange rate, and inflation on Indonesian bond yield. Our result conclude that based on Vector Error Correction Model there are long run causality from inflation, US 10 year bond yield, and USD/IDR exchange rate to Indonesia 10 year bond yield. There are also short-run causality from inflation and US 10 year bond yield to Indonesia 10 year bond yield. Based on impulse response function, Indonesia 10 year bond yield respond permanently to changes in US 10 year bond yield. Based on Granger causality we also reveal that inflation and US 10 year bond yield can cause Indonesia 10 year bond yield. US 10 year bond yield has a larger impact than inflation when it comes to affecting Indonesia 10 year bond yield

Abstract This paper addresses the question of the optimal debt level of a state (canton) that issues new bonds and subsequently invests the borrowed capital. For that purpose, we first estimate the effect of the debt level on the interest rate and then we contrast the predicted interest rate with potential revenue from the capital markets. The estimation is based on panel data from the 26 Swiss cantons between 1980 and 2015. The median performance of Swiss pension funds serves as a reference value for the revenue achieved in the capital market. The results show an exponential relationship between the debt and its interest rate; raising indebtedness by 1000 Swiss francs per capita makes the spread between the risk-free rate and the interest rate on the debt increase by 5%. Given this small effect, the inherent optimal debt level equals more than twice the initial levels and the reinvested uncommitted funds provide a return potential of nearly 5% of the total cantonal receipts, on average.

Bulgarian pension funds have been operating for more than 15 years since the fundamental reform in the pension system in our country was implemented in 2002. For the whole period Bulgarian lev has been fixed to the euro due to the currency board system. In such an environment Bulgarian central bank cannot finance the budget deficits of the state. Bulgarian government is trying to balance the budget or to form small deficits because in a currency board monetary system eventual shortages of cash inflows should be compensated by the private sector – mainly by the institutional investors – banks, pension funds, insurance companies etc. In this situation Bulgarian pension funds are one of the cash sources that could be used. But are they a real source in the long term? In the next lines a research is done on the structure of the government bond portfolio held by Bulgarian pension funds and how these financial institutions actually support the financing of the deficits formed by the Bulgarian government for the last 10 years. The research is trying to find answers to the following questions: • Is the share of government bonds in Bulgarian universal pension fund portfolio constant or is it variable for the last 10 years. • What is the share of the Bulgarian government bonds in government bond portfolio managed by the pension funds? • Could we expect that these financial institutions will continue to finance the budget deficits of the Bulgarian government in the long term and to what extent? The last question is quite important having in mind that the introduction of the funded component of the pension system was accompanied by a transfer of the contribution due for the first pillar of the system (pay-as-you-go) towards the second one (fully funded with defined contributions). So part of the deficit formed into the pay-as-you-go pension system is due to this reduction of the contribution rate paid by those individuals insured into the universal pension funds.

The article contains the results of studying instruments of the domestic market for government securities in Ukraine. Due to the fact that the financial market has become a powerful and efficient source for accumulating temporarily free funds, which will satisfy interests of investors themselves, the state is trying to diversify and improve the list of government securities of Ukraine. The main trends in the development of government borrowing in the domestic market of Ukraine are described, the advantages and disadvantages of the subtypes of government debt obligations are considered. Over the past decades the number of instruments in the government debt market of Ukraine has increased. In particular, these are VAT bonds, domestic government bonds in foreign currency, indexed bonds, hryvnia-denominated and US dollar-denominated treasury bills, war bonds. Despite a rather large list of financial instruments, almost all issues of non-standard debt instruments did not have much success. The main factors affecting the issuance and circulation of government securities in Ukraine are identified. Moreover, the relationship of the state and the NBU in the government securities market is highlighted. Financial bills and discussions of scientists about its legal status are considered in the context of financial instruments. There analyzed foreign experience in implementing government debt relief programs in the USA, Japan, and Canada, in which employers participate to financially support their employees. Positive and negative aspects of their functioning are identified, and conclusions are drawn about the possible consequences and prospects for Ukraine. There substantiated proposals for measures to increase the level of investor interest in government debt instruments in the securities market that concern both legal and economic components of qualitative changes and reforms.

The growth of an emerging capital market is necessary and requires all available resources and inputs from various sources to realize this objective. Several debates on government bonds' contribution to Nigeria's capital market developmental growth have ensued but have not triggered comprehensive studies in this area. The present research work seeks to close the breach by probing the impact of government bonds on developing the capital market in Nigeria from 2003-2019. We employ total market capitalization as the response variable to proxy the capital market, while various government bonds serve as the independent variables. The inflation rate moderates the predictor components. The research uses multiple regression technique to assess the explanatory variables' impact on the total market capitalization. At the same time, diagnostic tests help guarantee the normality of the regression model's data distribution and appropriateness. The findings reveal that the Federal Government of Nigeria's (FGN) bond is statistically significant and positive in influencing Nigeria's capital market growth. The other predictor variables are not found significant in this study. The study suggests that the Government should improve on the government bonds' coupon, while still upholding the none default norm in paying interest and refunding principal to investors when due. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes how the large budget deficits of 2020 in the United States and the United Kingdom were financed, how central banks are in practice managed not just short-term interest rates but also yields on government bonds, and how their ability to resist a post-coronavirus surge in inflation has been compromised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Discussion Papers is the property of Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The paper addresses an estimation of public debt-to-GDP threshold ratio in the developing economy encountered with an excessive public debt impact on macro dynamics. An active field of the study focuses on the internal public debt due to a recent tendency of external share substitution in the developing economies. Among a lot of publications dedicated to the public debt, the study object usually focuses on an array of countries using the same method to evaluate the threshold ratio. Analyzing behavior specifics concerning economy in crises and thereafter, there is a need to carry out the public debt study for the particular economy as well. The research suggests an algorithm for determining internal public debt-to-GDP threshold ratio by applying a scenario modeling tool. Taking into account a growing burden of public debt in Ukraine, the authors have elaborated an econometric macro model operated through fiscal-monetary interaction. The model was used to evaluate the internal public debt-to-GDP threshold ratio in Ukraine. The threshold ratio proves to be 40% of GDP, while the similar result for the total amount of public borrowings is about twice as high. Although the given ratio remained below the estimated threshold as of the mid-term of 2017, a space degree is small and going to collapse soon. Considering sluggish economic recovery following the last recession took place in 2014–2015, Ukraine will face the challenge of reopening the agenda of growing debt burden in a near future.

The perspective of behavioural finance is that anomalies in the cross-section of returns are driven by mispricing that arises from investor irrationality that cannot be easily arbitraged away. In this study, we examine the implications of this for international government bond markets. Using data for 25 countries for the years 1992–2015, we replicate multiple factor strategies that represent four major return drivers: defensive (low-risk), carry, value and momentum. We investigate the relationships between the performance of these strategies and market-wide measures of limits to arbitrage and investor sentiment. We find that the defensive strategy performs best during tight arbitrage conditions whereas severe limits to arbitrage negatively affect momentum profits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Derevko H.S. The capitalization transactions of state banks in Ukraine are analyzed in the context of the establishment of an additional impact on the growth of the debt burden. It is shown that these operations were carried out in 2009-2016 under the contradictions of financial legislation in terms of lack of transparency, and the absence of clear rules that allow justifying the volumes, mechanism and consequences of state aid to banks in the form of capitalization. Overall during 2008-2016 years (first quarter) state spent about 88 billion UАН for such capitalization. Implementation of the capitalization of state banks at the expense of T-bills is very costly for the state budget. During the period 2008-2016 years (first quarter) state budget expenditures related to T-bills service, through which the capitalization of state banks was held, rich 37 billion UAH, or 15.4 percent of total expenditures made on public service debt over the named period.

The purpose of the article is to assess the condition, prospects and determinants of the development of the retail Treasury bond market in Poland. The article uses the following research methods: literature analysis, observation method, data analysis published by the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank of Poland. As a result of the analysis, attention was paid to the chances for the development of the retail Treasury bond market in Poland resulting from the increase in household savings. It would also contribute to reducing the risk resulting from the involvement of foreign investors in the domestic government bond market.

The growth of an emerging capital market is necessary and requires all available resources and inputs from various sources to realize this objective. Several debates on government bonds’ contribution to Nigeria’s capital market developmental growth have ensued but have not triggered comprehensive studies in this area. The present research work seeks to close the breach by probing the impact of government bonds on developing the capital market in Nigeria from 2003–2019. We employ total market capitalization as the response variable to proxy the capital market, while various government bonds serve as the independent variables. The inflation rate moderates the predictor components. The research uses multiple regression technique to assess the explanatory variables’ impact on the total market capitalization. At the same time, diagnostic tests help guarantee the normality of the regression model’s data distribution and appropriateness. The findings reveal that the Federal Government of Nigeria’s (FGN) bond is statistically significant and positive in influencing Nigeria’s capital market growth. The other predictor variables are not found significant in this study. The study suggests that the Government should improve on the government bonds’ coupon, while still upholding the none default norm in paying interest and refunding principal to investors when due.

Safe assets are recognized as being the cornerstone of contemporary financial systems. Due to financial globalization and massive international capital flows, they transformed into global safe assets, meaning that both demand and supply sides can be created by international investors. The article consists of two main parts. The first one concentrates on the theoretical issues of safe assets: definitions, attributes, categories of investors who search for them, as well as categories of suppliers. The theoretical considerations lead to the conclusions that only debt instruments can be used as safe assets, and due to limited substitutability between private and public issues, only the latter can perform this function properly, especially in times of stress. In the context of global safe asset considerations, it seems reasonable that only countries issuing reserve currencies can become public issuers of safe assets. The empirical analysis presented in the second part of the article confirms the theoretical predictions. A study of sovereign bond yield differentials conducted for two groups of countries (issuers of reserve currency and non-issuers but possessing the highest credit ratings) shows that in the period 2005–2017, the spreads in the first group were depressed by the mere fact they held the status of a reserve currency issuer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of monetary policy outcomes suggest that Nigeria does not often enjoy ideal conditions to adopting a monetary policy regime aimed primarily at stabilizing prices due to increasing internal debt resulting from sales of government securities. This has also push-up the volume of money supplied into her economy. This has made the economy particularly exposed to price and quantity-type external shocks, which renders price stabilization all the more complicated. This study examines the impact of open market operations and money supply on inflation rate in Nigeria within the period of 1981-2016. Using the vector error correction model approach, the result revealed that Treasury bill, government bonds, and money supply have positive and significant relationship with inflation rate in Nigeria. However, total value of money market instruments, income per capita and interest rate had negative and significant impact on inflation rate in Nigeria. The study concluded that open market operations while controlling the supply of money had significantly impacted on price stability in the long-run in the Nigerian economy. The study suggests that there is need for an increase use in the open market operations as a tool for achieving stability of price in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Predicting bond betas using macro-finance variables. • We find differences in prediction across government, investment grade corporate and high-yield corporate bond betas. • The complete subset regressions (CSR) method performs well in predicting bond betas. • There are important portfolio and policy making implications. We predict bond betas conditioning on a number of macro-finance variables. We explore differences across long-term government bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, and high yield corporate bonds. We conduct out-of-sample forecasting using the new approach of combining predictor variables through complete subset regressions (CSR). We consider the robustness of CSR forecasts across the 1-month, 3-month, and 12-month forecasting horizons. The CSR method performs well in predicting bond betas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The public debt stock is an indicator of high interest at the macroeconomic level and regulated within the European Union by the Maastricht Treaty, which provides a level of public debt of at most 60% of GDP. Romania, as a member state of the EU, must fit this percentage. This article analyzes the evolution of public debt in our country in terms of dynamics and structure for the period 2000-2018. The evolution of governmental and local public debt, as well as the service of governmental public debt and the differences between the public debt determined according to the EU methodology and the one determined according to the national methodology is highlighted. Finally, we will draw some conclusions regarding the evolution of the public debt and its sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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As an effect of the economic crisis in 1997-1998, the Government of Indonesia has issued 650.000 billion rupiah of government bonds to restructure banks. These bonds called recapitalization bonds. Problems surface when the maturity date of bonds is in 2004 to 2009. That will burden the state budget (APBN). To overcome that problem, the Government of Indonesia implements the Debt Switching Policy in 2002 and 2003. This article is to discuss effects of the Debt Switching Policy on the state budget (APBN) and to comprehend the economy and politic phenomenon informulating that poling.