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BACKGROUND: The duration of trial follow-up affects the ability to detect recrudescent infections following anti-malarial treatment. The aim of this study was to explore the proportions of recrudescent parasitaemia as ascribed by genotyping captured at various follow-up time-points in treatment efficacy trials for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. METHODS: Individual patient data from 83 anti-malarial efficacy studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) repository with at least 28 days follow-up were available. The temporal and cumulative distributions of recrudescence were characterized using a Cox regression model with shared frailty on study-sites. Fractional polynomials were used to capture non-linear instantaneous hazard. The area under the density curve (AUC) of the constructed distribution was used to estimate the optimal follow-up period for capturing a P. falciparum malaria recrudescence. Simulation studies were conducted based on the constructed distributions to quantify the absolute overestimation in efficacy due to sub-optimal follow-up. RESULTS: Overall, 3703 recurrent infections were detected in 60 studies conducted in Africa (15,512 children aged < 5 years) and 23 studies conducted in Asia and South America (5272 patients of all ages). Using molecular genotyping, 519 (14.0%) recurrences were ascribed as recrudescent infections. A 28 day artemether-lumefantrine (AL) efficacy trial would not have detected 58% [95% confidence interval (CI) 47-74%] of recrudescences in African children and 32% [95% CI 15-45%] in patients of all ages in Asia/South America. The corresponding estimate following a 42 day dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) efficacy trial in Africa was 47% [95% CI 19-90%] in children under 5 years old treated with > 48 mg/kg total piperaquine (PIP) dose and 9% [95% CI 0-22%] in those treated with ≤ 48 mg/kg PIP dose. In absolute terms, the simulation study found that trials limited to 28 days follow-up

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum malaria is associated with anaemia-related morbidity, attributable to host, parasite and drug factors. We quantified the haematological response following treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria to identify the factors associated with malarial anaemia. METHODS: Individual patient data from eligible antimalarial efficacy studies of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, available through the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository prior to August 2015, were pooled using standardised methodology. The haematological response over time was quantified using a multivariable linear mixed effects model with nonlinear terms for time, and the model was then used to estimate the mean haemoglobin at day of nadir and day 7. Multivariable logistic regression quantified risk factors for moderately severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 7 g/dL) at day 0, day 3 and day 7 as well as a fractional fall ≥ 25% at day 3 and day 7. RESULTS: A total of 70,226 patients, recruited into 200 studies between 1991 and 2013, were included in the analysis: 50,859 (72.4%) enrolled in Africa, 18,451 (26.3%) in Asia and 916 (1.3%) in South America. The median haemoglobin concentration at presentation was 9.9 g/dL (range 5.0-19.7 g/dL) in Africa, 11.6 g/dL (range 5.0-20.0 g/dL) in Asia and 12.3 g/dL (range 6.9-17.9 g/dL) in South America. Moderately severe anaemia (Hb < 7g/dl) was present in 8.4% (4284/50,859) of patients from Africa, 3.3% (606/18,451) from Asia and 0.1% (1/916) from South America. The nadir haemoglobin occurred on day 2 post treatment with a mean fall from baseline of 0.57 g/dL in Africa and 1.13 g/dL in Asia. Independent risk factors for moderately severe anaemia on day 7, in both Africa and Asia, included moderately severe anaemia at baseline (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 16.10 and AOR = 23.00, respectively), young age (age < 1 compared to ≥ 12 years AOR = 12.81 and AOR = 6.79, respectively), high parasitaemia (AOR = 1.78 and AOR = 1.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) effectively prevent pneumococcal disease but the global impact of pneumococcal vaccination is hampered by the cost of PCV. The relevance and feasibility of trials of reduced dose schedules is greatest in middle- and low-income countries, such as The Gambia, where PCV has been introduced with good disease control but where transmission of vaccine-type pneumococci persists. We are conducting a large cluster-randomised, non-inferiority, field trial of an alternative reduced dose schedule of PCV compared to the standard schedule, the PVS trial. METHODS: PVS is a prospective, cluster-randomised, non-inferiority, real-world field trial of an alternative schedule of one dose of PCV scheduled at age 6 weeks with a booster dose at age 9 months (i.e. the alternative '1 + 1' schedule) compared to the standard schedule of three primary doses scheduled at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age (i.e. the standard '3 + 0' schedule). The intervention will be delivered for 4 years. The primary endpoint is the population-level prevalence of nasopharyngeal vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in children aged 2 weeks to 59 months with clinical pneumonia in year 4 of the trial. Participants and field staff are not masked to group allocation while measurement of the laboratory endpoint will be masked. Sixty-eight geographic population clusters have been randomly allocated, in a 1:1 ratio, to each schedule and all resident infants are eligible for enrolment. All resident children less than 5 years of age are under continuous surveillance for clinical safety endpoints measured at 11 health facilities; invasive pneumococcal disease, radiological pneumonia, clinical pneumonia, and hospitalisations. Secondary endpoints include the population-level prevalence of nasopharyngeal vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in years 2 and 4 and vaccine-type carriage prevalence in unimmunised infants aged 6-12 weeks in year 4. The trial includes components of mathematica

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) effectively prevent pneumococcal disease, but the global impact of pneumococcal vaccination is hampered by its cost. The evaluation of reduced dose schedules of PCV includes measurement of effects on immunogenicity and carriage acquisition compared to standard schedules. The relevance and feasibility of trials of reduced dose schedules is greatest in middle- and low-income countries, such as The Gambia, where the introduction of PCV resulted in good disease control but where transmission of vaccine-type pneumococci persists. We designed a large cluster-randomised field trial of an alternative reduced dose schedule of PCV compared to the standard schedule, the PVS trial. We will also conduct a sub-study to evaluate the individual-level effect of the two schedules on carriage acquisition, immunogenicity, and co-administration of PCV with yellow fever vaccine, the PVS-AcqImm trial. METHODS: PVS-AcqImm is a prospective, cluster-randomised trial of one dose of PCV scheduled at age 6 weeks with a booster dose at age 9 months (i.e. alternative '1+1' schedule) compared to three primary doses scheduled at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age (i.e. standard '3+0' schedule). Sub-groups within the alternative schedule group will receive yellow fever vaccine separately or co-administered with PCV at 9 months of age. The primary endpoints are (a) rate of nasopharyngeal vaccine-type pneumococcal acquisition from 9 to 14 months of age, (b) geometric mean concentration of vaccine-type pneumococcal IgG at 18 months of age, and (c) proportions with yellow fever neutralising antibody titre ≥8 four weeks after administration of yellow fever vaccine. Participants and field staff will not be masked to group allocation while the measurement of laboratory endpoints will be masked. Approximately equal numbers of participants will be resident in each of 28 geographic clusters (14 clusters in alternative and standard schedule groups); 784 enrolled for a

RATIONALE: The effectiveness of universal immunisation with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) has been evident in many countries. However, the global impact of PCV is limited by its cost, which has prevented its introduction in several countries. Reducing the cost of PCV programmes may facilitate vaccine introduction in some countries and improve the sustainability of PCV in EPIs in low-income countries when they transition away from subsidised vaccine supply. METHODS AND DESIGN: PVS is a real-world field trial of an alternative schedule of one dose of PCV scheduled at age 6 weeks with a booster dose at age 9 months (i.e. the alternative '1+1' schedule) compared to the standard schedule of three primary doses scheduled at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age (i.e. the standard '3+0' schedule). Delivery of the interventions began in late 2019 in 68 geographic clusters and will continue for 4 years. The primary endpoint is the prevalence of nasopharyngeal vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in children aged 2-260 weeks with clinical pneumonia in year 4. Secondary endpoints are the prevalence of vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage among all ages in year 4 and the incidence of radiological pneumonia in children enrolled to receive the interventions. Additional disease and carriage endpoints are included. PURPOSE: This statistical analysis plan (SAP) describes the cohorts and populations, and follow-up criteria, to be used in different analyses. The SAP defines the endpoints and describes how adherence to the interventions will be presented. We describe how analyses will account for the effect of clustering and stratified randomisation. The SAP defines the approach to non-inferiority and other analyses. Defining the SAP early in the trial will avoid bias in analyses that may arise from prior knowledge of trial findings.

The development of COVID-19 vaccines is occurring at a rapid pace, with the potential for a vaccine to be available within 6 months. So who should be prioritized for vaccination when in the first instance, there will be insufficient supply to meet demand? There is no doubt that health-care workers in all settings should be vaccinated first, but who comes next will be a complex decision based on local epidemiology, societal values, and the ability of the vaccines to prevent both severe disease and to reduce transmission thereby eliciting herd protection. The decision on who to vaccinate should be equitable, highly contextualized, and based on the property of each vaccine. In some settings, the elderly may be prioritized, in others, it may be the population most likely to get infected and responsible for community spread. To support decision-making on who to be prioritized for vaccination requires urgent additional research on the epidemiology of COVID-19; preexisting immunity and who is responsible for transmission in a variety of settings; the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines in children and pregnant women; and determining whether COVID-19 vaccines prevent asymptomatic infection and transmission.

BACKGROUND: Improving oxygen systems may improve clinical outcomes for hospitalised children with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). This paper reports the effects of an improved oxygen system on mortality and clinical practices in 12 general, paediatric, and maternity hospitals in southwest Nigeria. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an unblinded stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial comparing three study periods: baseline (usual care), pulse oximetry introduction, and stepped introduction of a multifaceted oxygen system. We collected data from clinical records of all admitted neonates (<28 days old) and children (28 days to 14 years old). Primary analysis compared the full oxygen system period to the pulse oximetry period and evaluated odds of death for children, children with ALRI, neonates, and preterm neonates using mixed-effects logistic regression. Secondary analyses included the baseline period (enabling evaluation of pulse oximetry introduction) and evaluated mortality and practice outcomes on additional subgroups. Three hospitals received the oxygen system intervention at 4-month intervals. Primary analysis included 7,716 neonates and 17,143 children admitted during the 2-year stepped crossover period (November 2015 to October 2017). Compared to the pulse oximetry period, the full oxygen system had no association with death for children (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-1.46; p = 0.721) or children with ALRI (aOR 1.09; 95% CI 0.50-2.41; p = 0.824) and was associated with an increased risk of death for neonates overall (aOR 1.45; 95% CI 1.04-2.00; p = 0.026) but not preterm/low-birth-weight neonates (aOR 1.30; 95% CI 0.76-2.23; p = 0.366). Secondary analyses suggested that the introduction of pulse oximetry improved oxygen practices prior to implementation of the full oxygen system and was associated with lower odds of death for children with ALRI (aOR 0.33; 95% CI 0.12-0.92; p = 0.035) but not for children, preterm