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Conservation and restoration projects often fail to engage local communities during the planning and implementation stage. In addition, when considering urban boundary ecosystems, there exists a wide range of stakeholders that must be involved in the planning process to ensure social equity in land management outcomes. Traditional methods for assessing future landscape change scenarios have been critiqued for their inability to adequately incorporate the diverse range of stakeholder values. This paper presents a multicriteria mapping study, incorporating a novel application of the Nature Futures Framework, to assess nature recovery scenarios on Brighton and Hove’s Downland Estate—an urban boundary landscape surrounding the city of Brighton and Hove in Sussex, South East England. We focus on two key research outcomes. First, we assess the perceived performance of alternative nature recovery options across Nature Future value perspectives and between contrasting stakeholder groups. Second, by mapping stakeholder values from our multicriteria mapping study, we demonstrate that the Nature Futures Framework provides a robust framework within which to assess the diverse values stakeholders hold for land use change. We propose that utilizing the Nature Futures Framework, in combination with the multicriteria mapping interview technique, can form a valuable tool to elicit stakeholder values that may have been hidden, or underrepresented in traditional assessment methods, and to compare the perceived performance of alternative nature recovery scenarios between stakeholder groups.

Although species are being lost at alarming rates, previous research has provided conflicting results on the extent and even direction of global biodiversity change at the local scale. Here, we assessed the ability to detect global biodiversity trends using local species richness and how it is affected by the number of monitoring sites, sampling interval (i.e. time between original survey and re-survey of the site), measurement error (error of the measurement of the local species richness), spatial grain of monitoring (a proxy for the taxa mobility) and spatial sampling biases (i.e. site-selection biases). We use PREDICTS model-based estimates as a proxy for the real-world distribution of biodiversity and randomly selected monitoring sites to calculate local species richness trends. We found that while a monitoring network with hundreds of sites could detect global change in species richness within a 30-year period, the number of sites for detecting trends doubled for a decade, increased 10-fold within three years and yearly trends were undetectable. Measurement errors had a non-linear effect on statistical power, with a 1% error reducing statistical power by a slight margin and a 5% error drastically reducing the power to reliably detect any trend. The ability to detect global change in local species richness was also related to spatial grain, making it harder to detect trends for sites sampled at smaller plot sizes. Spatial sampling biases not only reduced the ability to detect negative global biodiversity trends but sometimes yielded positive trends. We conclude that detecting accurate global biodiversity trends using local richness may simply be unfeasible with current approaches. We suggest that monitoring a representative network of sites implemented at the national level, combined with models accounting for errors and biases, can help improve our understanding of global biodiversity change.

The legacy of the ‘SL > SS principle’, that a single or a few large habitat patches (SL) conserve more species than several small patches (SS), is evident in decisions to protect large patches while down-weighting small ones. However, empirical support for this principle is lacking, and most studies find either no difference or the opposite pattern (SS > SL). To resolve this dilemma, we propose a research agenda by asking, ‘are there consistent, empirically demonstrated conditions leading to SL > SS?’ We first review and summarize ‘single large or several small’ (SLOSS) theory and predictions. We found that most predictions of SL > SS assume that between-patch variation in extinction rate dominates the outcome of the extinction–colonization dynamic. This is predicted to occur when populations in separate patches are largely independent of each other due to low between-patch movements, and when species differ in minimum patch size requirements, leading to strong nestedness in species composition along the patch size gradient. However, even when between-patch variation in extinction rate dominates the outcome of the extinction–colonization dynamic, theory can predict SS > SL. This occurs if extinctions are caused by antagonistic species interactions or disturbances, leading to spreading-of-risk of landscape-scale extinction across SS. SS > SL is also predicted when variation in colonization dominates the outcome of the extinction–colonization dynamic, due to higher immigration rates for SS than SL, and larger species pools in proximity to SS than SL. Theory that considers change in species composition among patches also predicts SS > SL because of higher beta diversity across SS than SL. This results mainly from greater environmental heterogeneity in SS due to greater variation in micro-habitats within and across SS habitat patches (‘across-habitat heterogeneity’), and/or more heterogeneous successional trajectories across SS than SL. Based on our review of the relevant theory, we develop the ‘SLOSS cube hypothesis’, where the combination of three variables – between-patch movement, the role of spreading-of-risk in landscape-scale population persistence, and across-habitat heterogeneity – predict the SLOSS outcome. We use the SLOSS cube hypothesis and existing SLOSS empirical evidence, to predict SL > SS only when all of the following are true: low between-patch movement, low importance of spreading-of-risk for landscape-scale population persistence, and low across-habitat heterogeneity. Testing this prediction will be challenging, as it will require many studies of species groups and regions where these conditions hold. Each such study would compare gamma diversity across multiple landscapes varying in number and sizes of patches. If the prediction is not generally supported across such tests, then the mechanisms leading to SL > SS are extremely rare in nature and the SL > SS principle should be abandoned.

Assessing the road effects on biodiversity is challenging because impacts may depend on both wildlife responses to roads and on the spatial arrangement of roads. We questioned whether an increase in road encroachment leads to significant changes in species occurrence and community composition. Using a large citizen-science dataset of point-counts performed throughout Iberian Peninsula, we modelled the effect of road density on the occurrence of common birds (n = 78 species), while accounting for potential confounding effects of environment and survey effort. We then tested if species' occurrence patterns would be linked to specific traits related to the ability to cope with human presence. Finally, we assessed how road density affects the community compositional dissimilarity. We estimated 36 (46%) and 18 (23%) species to be negatively and positively affected by roads, respectively. Increased road encroachment was positively related with urban dwelling and fecundity, and negatively related with nesting on the ground. Furthermore, increasing road density translated into an increasing community compositional dissimilarity, mostly due to species turnover. Overall, we found that different species-specific responses to roads translate into changes at the community level. Landscape and road-network management should be conceived acknowledging that roads are contributing to biodiversity changes. As so, building upon the concepts of land sharing/land sparing, conservation actions should be tailored according to the different species responses e.g., road verge management targeting species having a positive relation with road density; and compensation actions targeting species showing a negative response toward roads.

Assessing the road effects on biodiversity is challenging because impacts may depend on both wildlife responses to roads and on the spatial arrangement of roads. We questioned whether an increase in road encroachment i.e., the advancement of roads into non-urban areas, leads to significant changes (positive and negative) in species occurrence, and if so, whether those changes are linked to specific traits related to perturbation sensitiveness, therefore acting as filters that increase the community compositional dissimilarity. Using a large citizen-science dataset of point-counts performed throughout Iberian Peninsula (4,459 unique survey sites), we modelled the effect of road density on the occurrence of common songbirds (n=58), while accounting for potential confounding effects of environment and survey effort. We then tested if species’ occurrence patterns would be linked to specific traits related to the ability to cope with human presence. Finally, we assessed how road density affect the community compositional dissimilarity. We estimated 24 (41%) and 12 (21%) species to be negatively and positively affected by roads, respectively. Increased road encroachment was positively related with a higher prevalence of urban dwellers and negatively related with the occurrence of species nesting and foraging on the ground. Furthermore, increasing road density translated into an increasing community compositional dissimilarity, mostly due to species turnover. Our study support previous research showing that roads have different effects on the occurrence of different species, but we revealed that at least three species' traits have a clear relation with such road responses. Such trait filtering is probably causing a high species turnover between songbird communities occurring in roaded and nearby roadless areas. Overall, we found that different species-specific responses to roads translates into changes at the community level. Landscape and road-network management should be conceived acknowledging that roads are contributing to biodiversity changes. As so, building upon the concepts of Land Sharing / Land Sparing, conservation actions should be tailored according to the different species responses e.g., road verge management targeting species having a positive relation with road density; and compensation actions targeting species showing a negative response toward roads.

In the current Anthropocene Era, with numerous escalating challenges for biodiversity conservation, the inclusion of the social dimension into management decisions regarding wildlife and protected areas is critical to their success. By conducting 354 questionnaires in a Mediterranean protected area (the Biosphere Reserve of Bardenas Reales, Northern Spain), we aim to determine sociodemographic factors influencing knowledge levels and perceptions of species and functional groups as, emblematic and threatened. We found that hunters and animal husbandry workers knew more species than other social actors. Additionally, the perception of functional groups as threatened or emblematic differed between social actor groups, with statistically significant associations between perceptions and the characteristics of respondents. Interestingly, we found that although elusive steppe species are globally considered as endangered, these species were the least known by all social actor groups and rarely perceived as emblematic. This research is a novel approach and provides a better understanding of how perceptions can facilitate conservation decisions, particularly regarding endangered species

Vertical stratification and host tree species are factors with a high influence on the structure of communities of xylobiont beetles. However, little is known about how this influence varies between common and rare species. Based on estimated species richness, we compared alpha and beta diversity patterns of common and rare species in the canopy of the Leipzig floodplain forest to assess their response to vertical stratification and tree species. We used two measures of rarity: threat level in red lists and abundance based on octaves. The understory displayed a significantly higher number of common species than the canopy strata. Conversely, the canopy strata harbored a higher number of rare species. Turnover was always dominant over richness differences in beta diversity partitions. Using Raup–Crick null models and non-metric multidimensional scaling, we found that the vertical strata accounted for 19% of the overall beta diversity of common species and for 15% of the overall beta diversity of rare species. The tree species accounted for 7% of the overall beta diversity of the common species and 3% of the beta diversity of the rare species. Our results indicate that studies carried out in the understory alone do not allow drawing conclusions regarding the biodiversity in the canopy strata, and thus regarding the overall community structure of xylobiont beetles in the canopy. This study is kindly supported by the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, funded by the German Research Foundation (FZT 118). The Article processing charges were funded by the Open Science Office of the Leipzig University Library. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

International audience; Species turnover is ubiquitous. However, it remains unknown whether certain types of species are consistently gained or lost across different habitats. Here, we analysed the trajectories of 1827 plant species over time intervals of up to 78 years at 141 sites across mountain summits, forests, and lowland grasslands in Europe. We found, albeit with relatively small effect sizes, displacements of smaller- by larger-ranged species across habitats. Communities shifted in parallel towards more nutrient-demanding species, with species from nutrient-rich habitats having larger ranges. Because these species are typically strong competitors, declines of smaller-ranged species could reflect not only abiotic drivers of global change, but also biotic pressure from increased competition. The ubiquitous component of turnover based on species range size we found here may partially reconcile findings of no net loss in local diversity with global species loss, and link community-scale turnover to macroecological processes such as biotic homogenisation.

Summary Systematic, long-term monitoring provides crucial evidence regarding the vulnerability of biodiversity to environmental change. New research shows that trends in taxonomic diversity do not necessarily match trends in functional diversity. Interpreting the implications of different kinds of diversity change for ecosystem functioning remains a key priority.

The global road network is rapidly growing associated with human economic development. This growth also entails a high toll for biodiversity, with several well-documented negative impacts on different species. However, there is still a great lack of knowledge about the effects of roads on the persistence of wildlife populations. Here, we aimed to summarize our current knowledge on this topic, based on systematic reviews. We found that only a small proportion of studies (8%) focused on the effects of roads on population persistence. Most of these studies were about large mammals and were performed in high-income countries. Furthermore, these works studied only 2% of those species identified by the IUCN Red List as threatened by roads. Overall, our results show that we are far from understanding how roads affect the long-term viability of wildlife populations inhabiting road-effect zones. Addressing this challenge will require modifying our conceptual perspective, from short-term to long-term studies, from single road sections to focusing the landscape scale, and strive to obtain empirical data to support sound analyses to assess how road impacts affect the survival of wildlife populations, namely with information required to perform approaches such as population viability analyses. We highlight some key studies from our reviews that have addressed this global conservation concern with population-oriented approaches.

Citizen science platforms are quickly accumulating hundreds of millions of biodiversity observations around the world annually. Quantifying and correcting for the biases in citizen science datasets remains an important first step before these data are used to address ecological questions and monitor biodiversity. One source of potential bias among datasets is the difference between those citizen science programs that have unstructured protocols and those that have semi-structured or structured protocols for submitting observations. To quantify biases in an unstructured citizen science platform, we contrasted bird observations from the unstructured iNaturalist platform with that from a semi-structured citizen science platform—eBird—for the continental United States. We tested whether four traits of species (body size, commonness, flock size, and color) predicted if a species was under- or over-represented in the unstructured dataset compared with the semi-structured dataset. We found strong evidence that large-bodied birds were over-represented in the unstructured citizen science dataset; moderate evidence that common species were over-represented in the unstructured dataset; strong evidence that species in large groups were over-represented; and no evidence that colorful species were over-represented in unstructured citizen science data. Our results suggest that biases exist in unstructured citizen science data when compared with semi-structured data, likely as a result of the detectability of a species and the inherent recording process. Importantly, in programs like iNaturalist the detectability process is two-fold—first, an individual organism needs to be detected, and second, it needs to be photographed, which is likely easier for many large-bodied species. Our results indicate that caution is warranted when using unstructured citizen science data in ecological modelling, and highlight body size as a fundamental trait that can be used as a covariate for modelling opportunistic species occurrence records, representing the detectability or identifiability in unstructured citizen science datasets. Future research in this space should continue to focus on quantifying and documenting biases in citizen science data, and expand our research by including structured citizen science data to understand how biases differ among unstructured, semi-structured, and structured citizen science platforms.

Context Land cover change is a global multi-scale process affecting ecosystems, with potential implications for ecological processes and for the biological communities that support them. Land cover changes are especially relevant for protected areas where long-term ecosystem stability is a critical aspect of protecting and maintaining high levels of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Objectives To understand the extent of land cover change impact on global ecosystem stability of protected areas across time and space. Methods Here we analysed 23 years of global spatial and temporal distribution of land cover change its occurrence within protected areas. We investigated whether higher land cover change rates occurred inside or outside protected areas, identified the main type of changes, and their distribution by UN region. Results Our results show that from 1992 to 2015, 4.89% of the world’s land surface changed from one land cover to another, with 97.9% of this change persisting until the end of the time period. We found that regions with higher land cover change, tend to have a higher incidence of change close to protected areas, suggesting a spillover effect on these areas. Also, the proportion of change inside and outside protected areas varied considerably across UN Regions. Conclusions Our results suggest that to reach current global conservation targets, it is not enough to increase the targets of protected area coverage. Instead, governments and conservation management agencies should account for regional specificities, and pay attention to the territories surrounding protected areas to develop strategies to reduce spillover effects.

Urban expansion poses a serious threat to biodiversity. Given that the expected area of urban land cover is predicted to increase by 2-3 million km2 by 2050, urban environments are one of the most widespread human-dominated land-uses affecting biodiversity. Responses to urbanization differ greatly among species. Some species are unable to tolerate urban environments (i.e., urban avoiders), others are able to adapt and use areas with moderate levels of urbanization (i.e., urban adapters), and yet others are able to colonize and even thrive in urban environments (i.e., urban exploiters). Quantifying species-specific responses to urbanization remains an important goal, but our current understanding of urban tolerance is heavily biased toward traditionally well-studied taxa (e.g., mammals and birds). We integrated a continuous measure of urbanization-night-time lights-with over 900,000 species' observations from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to derive a comprehensive analysis of species-specific (N = 158 species) responses of butterflies to urbanization across Europe. The majority of butterfly species included in our analysis avoided urban areas, regardless of whether species' urban affinities were quantified as a mean score of urban affinity across all occurrences (79%) or as a species' response curve to the whole urbanization gradient (55%). We then used species-specific responses to urbanization to assess which life history strategies promote urban affinity in butterflies. These trait-based analyses found strong evidence that the average number of flight months, likely associated with thermal niche breath, and number of adult food types were positively associated with urban affinity, while hostplant specialism was negatively associated with urban affinity. Overall, our results demonstrate that specialist butterflies, both in terms of thermal and diet preferences, are most at risk from increasing urbanization, and should thus be considered in urban planning and prioritized for conservation.

The species–area relationship (SAR) has been described as one of the few general patterns in ecology. Although there are many types of SAR, here we are concerned solely with the so-called species accumulation curve (SAC). The theoretical basis of this relationship is not well established. Here, we suggest that extreme value theory, also known as the statistics of extremes, provides a theoretical foundation for, as well as functions to fit, empirical species accumulation curves. Among the several procedures in extreme value theory, the appropriate way to deal with the species accumulation curve is the so-called block minima procedure. We first provide a brief description of this approach and the relevant formulas. We then illustrate the application of the block minima approach using data on tree species from a 50 ha plot in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We conclude by discussing the extent to which the assumptions under which the extreme types theorem occurs are confirmed by the data. Although we recognize limitations to the present application of extreme value theory, we predict that it will provide fertile ground for future work on the theory of SARs and its application in the fields of ecology, biogeography and conservation. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

We present a dataset that assembles occurrence records of alien tetrapods (amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals) in the Iberian Peninsula, a coherent biogeographically unit where introductions of alien species have occurred for millennia. These data have important potential applications for ecological research and management, including the assessment of invasion risks, formulation of preventive and management plans, and research at the biological community level on alien species. This dataset summarizes inventories and data sources on the taxonomy and distribution of alien tetrapods in the Iberia Peninsula, comprising known locations from published literature, expert knowledge and citizen science platforms. An expert-based assessment process allowed the identification of unreliable records (misclassification or natural dispersion from native range), and the classification of species according to their status of reproduction in the wild. Distributional data was harmonized into a common area unit, the 10 × 10 km Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) system (n = 6,152 cells). The year of observation and/or year of publication were also assigned to the records. In total, we assembled 35,940 unique distribution records (UTM × species × Year) for 253 species (6 amphibians, 16 reptiles, 218 birds and 13 mammals), spanning between 1912 and 2020. The species with highest number of distribution records were the Mediterranean painted frog Discoglossus pictus (n = 59 UTM), the pond slider Trachemys scripta (n = 471), the common waxbill Estrilda astrild (n = 1,275) and the house mouse Mus musculus (n = 4,043), for amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals, respectively. Most alien species recorded are native to Africa (33%), followed by South America (21%), Asia (19%), North America (12%) and Oceania (10%). Thirty-six species are classified by IUCN as threatened in their native range, namely 2 Critically Endangered (CR), 6 Endangered (EN), 8 Vulnerable (VU), and 20 species Near Threatened (NT). Species maps are provided in DataSet1, as well R code and GIS layers to update them as new records are obtained.

Large scale mapping of ecosystem services and functions (ES) is an important tool for researchers and policy makers to inform nature management and policies but it relies mainly on ES modelled with biophysical data such as land cover, henceforth biophysical ES. Other ES, henceforth species-based ES, are modelled at small scales based on species providers. As species-based ES are rarely included in multi-service, large-scale spatial assessments, we do not know if these assessments provide accurate information for managing the biodiversity important for species-based ES. We calculate and map weighted provider richness (WPR) for 9 species-based ES by weighting species data in Europe by their functional efficiency derived from functional trait databases. We compare WPR spatial patterns with those of 9 biophysical ES at continental and national scales in Europe. We find positive correlations at continental scale, and weaker positive correlations or neutral relationships at national scale between biophysical ES and WPR. Patterns of synergies and trade-offs for WPR are different from those of biophysical ES and change from continental to national scale. WPR for most species-based ES are synergistic with each other but WPR for existence value has the weakest synergies with other WPRs. Biodiversity data is still insufficient to truly map species-based ES at large scales but WPR can represent the next step forward for spatial ES assessments. A lack of spatial information on species-based ES in large-scale assessments leads to inaccurate information on ES distribution, and their synergies and trade-offs, which can lead to misguided management and conservation decisions. Large scale mapping of ecosystem services and functions (ES) is an important tool for researchers and Policy makers to inform nature management and policies but it relies mainly on ES modelled with biophysical data such as land cover, henceforth biophysical ES. Other ES, henceforth species-based ES, are modelled at small scales based on species providers. As species-based ES are rarely included in multi-service, large-scale spatial assessments, we do not know if these assessments provide accurate information for managing the biodiversity important for species-based ES. We calculate and map weighted provider richness (WPR) for 9 species-based ES by weighting species data in Europe by their functional efficiency derived from functional trait databases. Wecompare WPR spatial patterns with those of 9 biophysical ES at continental and national scales in Europe. We find positive correlations at continental scale, and weaker positive correlations or neutral relationships at national scale between biophysical ES and WPR. Patterns of synergies and trade-offs for WPR are different from those of biophysical ES and change from continental to national scale. WPR for most species-based ES are synergistic with each other but WPR for existence value has the weakest synergies with other WPRs. Biodiversitydata is still insufficient to truly map species-based ES at large scales but WPR can represent the next step Forward for spatial ES assessments. A lack of spatial information on species-based ES in large-scale assessments leads toinaccurate information on ES distribution, and their synergies and trade-offs, which can lead to misguided management and conservation decisions.

In biodiversity conservation, the “SL > SS principle” that a single (or few) large habitat patches (SL) conserve more species than several small patches (SS) is used to prioritize protection of large patches while down-weighting small ones. However, empirical support for this principle is lacking; most studies find SS > SL. We propose a research agenda to resolve this dilemma by asking, “are there consistent, empirically-demonstrated conditions leading to SL > SS?” We develop a hypothesis to answer this question, the “SLOSS cube hypothesis,” which predicts SL > SS only when all three of the following are true: between-patch movement is low, population dynamics are not influenced by spreading-of-risk, and large-scale across-habitat heterogeneity is low. We then propose methods to test this prediction. Many tests are needed, comparing gamma diversity across multiple landscapes varying in number and sizes of patches. If the prediction is not generally supported across tests, then either the mechanisms leading to SL > SS are extremely rare in nature, or they are outweighed by countervailing mechanisms leading to SS > SL (e.g. lower competition or higher immigration in SS), or both. In that case, the SL > SS principle should be abandoned.

Land-use change is currently the main driver of biodiversity loss. Projections of land-use change are often used to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity of future pathways of human development. However, such analyses frequently neglect that species can persist in human-modified habitats. Our aim was to estimate changes in biodiversity, considering affinities for multiple habitats, for three different land-use scenarios. Two scenarios focused on more sustainable trajectories of land-use change, based on either technological improvements (Pathway A) or societal changes (Pathway B), and the third reflected the historical or business-as-usual trends (Pathway 0). Using Portugal as a case study, we produced spatially-explicit projections of land-use change based on these pathways, and then we assessed the resulting changes in bird species richness and composition projected to occur by 2050 in each of the scenarios. By 2050, alpha and gamma diversity were projected to decrease, relative to 2010, in Pathway 0 and increase in Pathways A and B. However, different pathways favored different species groups, and presented strong regional differences. In the technological improvement pathway, loss of extensive agricultural areas led to an increase in both natural and extensive forest areas. In this pathway, forest species increase at the expense of farmland species, while in the societal change pathway the reverse occurs, as extensive agricultural areas were projected to increase. We show that while multiple positive pathways (A and B) for biodiversity can be envisioned, they will lead to differential impacts on biodiversity depending on the transformational changes in place and the regional socio-economic context. Our results suggest that considering compositional aspects of biodiversity can be critical in choosing the appropriate regional land-use policies.

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.

[Aim] Farmland abandonment or “ecological rewilding” shapes species distribution and ecological process ultimately affecting the biodiversity and functionality of ecosystems. Land abandonment predictions based on alternative future socioeconomic scenarios allow foretell the future of biota in Europe. From here, we predict how these forecasts may affect large-scale distribution of the Cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus), an apex scavenger closely linked to Mediterranean agro-grazing systems., [Location] Iberian Peninsula., [Methods] Firstly, we modelled nest-site and foraging habitat selection in relation to variables quantifying physiography, trophic resources and human disturbance. Secondly, we evaluate to what extent land abandonment may affect the life traits of the species and finally we determined how potential future distribution of the species would vary according to asymmetric socioeconomic land-abandonment predictions for year 2040., [Results] Cinereous vultures selected breeding areas with steep slopes and low human presence whereas foraging areas are characterized by high abundance of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and wild ungulates. Liberalization of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could potentially transform positively 66% of the current nesting habitat, favouring the recovery of mature forest. Contrarily, land abandonment would negatively affect the 63% of the current foraging habitat reducing the availability of preferred food resources (wild European rabbit). On the other hand, the maintenance of the CAP would determine lower frequencies (24%–22%) of nesting and foraging habitat change., [Main conclusions] Land abandonment may result into opposite effects on the focal species because of the increase in nesting habitats and wild ungulates populations and, on the other hand, lower availability of open areas with poorer densities of European rabbits. Land-abandonment models’ scenarios are still coarse-grained; the apparition of new human uses in natural areas may take place at small-sized and medium-sized scales, ultimately adding complexity to the prediction on the future of biota and ecosystems., I.G.‐B. was supported by a Pre‐Doctoral contract from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (BES‐2014‐070597). A.CA. was supported by a contract Juan de la Cierva Incorporación (IJCI‐2014‐20744; Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Spain) and a PostDoc contract Programa Viçent Mut of Govern Balear, Spain (PD/039/2017). This work was partially funded by projects RNM‐1925 (Consejería de Innovación, Ciencia y Empleo, Junta de Andalucía) and CGL2015‐66966‐C2‐1‐2‐R MINECO/FEDER EU and the Severo Ochoa Excellence Award from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (SEV‐2012‐0262). T.A.M. thanks partial support by CEAUL (funded by FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the project UID/MAT/00006/2013).

The inclusion of perceptions, interests and needs of stakeholders in biodiversity conservation is critical for the long-term protection of endangered species. Yet, the social dimensions of endangered species conservation are often overlooked. We examined the social perceptions of the conservational importance of the globally endangered Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus) in one of the most important breeding areas worldwide: the Bardenas Reales Protected Area, northern Spain. We assessed the factors that influence the stakeholders' views of its conservation importance and identified the management strategies that would have social support. We found that the understandings of the Egyptian vulture differed among stakeholders. Hunters had the highest level of knowledge about its presence, threatened status and role as provider of ecosystem services. Livestock keepers recognized the worth of the Egyptian vulture for carcass removal, whereas other regulating services (e.g. biological control) were frequently acknowledged by tourists. Hunters and livestock keepers were more critical about the effectiveness of ongoing conservation strategies for preserving the Egyptian vulture than tourists. Moreover, each stakeholder group identified different actions for the conservation of the Egyptian vulture in the area. The consideration of the diversity of conservation actions suggested by stakeholders could catalyze broader support for the preservation of the Egyptian vulture., ACA was supported by a Post-Doctoral grant from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) (SFRH/BPD/91609/2012; Portugal) and a contract Juan de la Cierva Incorporación (IJCI-2014-20744; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Spain). OC and HMP were supported by iDiv - German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, funded by German Research Foundation grant FZT 118.7.

The species-area relationship (SAR) has been often used to project species extinctions as a consequence of habitat loss. However, recent studies have suggested that the SAR may overestimate species extinctions, at least in the short-term. We argue that the main reason for this overestimation is that the classic SAR ignores the persistence of species in human-modified habitats. We use data collected worldwide to analyse what is the fraction of bird and plant species that remain in different human-modified habitats at the local scale after full habitat conversion. We observe that both taxa have consistent responses to the different land-use types, with strongest reductions in species richness in cropland across the globe, and in pasture in the tropics. We show that the results from these studies cannot be linearly scaled from plots to large regions, as this again overestimates the impacts of land-use change on biodiversity. The countryside SAR provides a unifying framework to incorporate both the effect of species persistence in the landscape matrix and the non-linear response of the proportion of species extinctions to sampling area, generating more realistic projections of biodiversity loss.

Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) consolidate information from varied biodiversity observation sources. Here we demonstrate the links between data sources, EBVs and indicators and discuss how different sources of biodiversity observations can be harnessed to inform EBVs. We classify sources of primary observations into four types: extensive and intensive monitoring schemes, ecological field studies and satellite remote sensing. We characterize their geographic, taxonomic and temporal coverage. Ecological field studies and intensive monitoring schemes inform a wide range of EBVs, but the former tend to deliver short-term data, while the geographic coverage of the latter is limited. In contrast, extensive monitoring schemes mostly inform the population abundance EBV, but deliver long-term data across an extensive network of sites. Satellite remote sensing is particularly suited to providing information on ecosystem function and structure EBVs. Biases behind data sources may affect the representativeness of global biodiversity datasets. To improve them, researchers must assess data sources and then develop strategies to compensate for identified gaps. We draw on the population abundance dataset informing the Living Planet Index (LPI) to illustrate the effects of data sources on EBV representativeness. We find that long-term monitoring schemes informing the LPI are still scarce outside of Europe and North America and that ecological field studies play a key role in covering that gap. Achieving representative EBV datasets will depend both on the ability to integrate available data, through data harmonization and modeling efforts, and on the establishment of new monitoring programs to address critical data gaps.

Many decision-makers are looking to science to clarify how nature supports human well-being. Scientists' responses have typically focused on empirical models of the provision of ecosystem services (ES) and resulting decision-support tools. Although such tools have captured some of the complexities of ES, they can be difficult to adapt to new situations. Globally useful tools that predict the provision of multiple ES under different decision scenarios have proven challenging to develop. Questions from decision-makers and limitations of existing decision-support tools indicate three crucial research frontiers for incorporating cutting-edge ES science into decision-support tools: (1) understanding the complex dynamics of ES in space and time, (2) linking ES provision to human well-being, and (3) determining the potential for technology to substitute for or enhance ES. We explore these frontiers in-depth, explaining why each is important and how existing knowledge at their cutting edges can be incorporated to improve ES decision-making tools.