4 results on '"Jenny Mecking"'
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2. Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble
- Author
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Malcolm John Roberts, Joanne Camp, Jon Seddon, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin Hodges, Benoît Vannière, Jenny Mecking, Rein Haarsma, Alessio Bellucci, Enrico Scoccimarro, Louis‐Philippe Caron, Fabrice Chauvin, Laurent Terray, Sophie Valcke, Marie‐Pierre Moine, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Colin Zarzycki, Paul Ullrich, Yohei Yamada, Ryo Mizuta, Chihiro Kodama, Dan Fu, Qiuying Zhang, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Nan Rosenbloom, Hong Wang, and Lixin Wu
- Published
- 2020
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3. The role of anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the 1850–1985 strengthening of the AMOC in CMIP6 historical simulations
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Jon Robson, Matthew B. Menary, Rowan T. Sutton, Jenny Mecking, Jonathan M. Gregory, Colin Jones, Bablu Sinha, David P. Stevens, Laura J. Wilcox, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading (UOR), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (NCAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences [Norwich] (COAS), School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich], and University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA)-University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA)
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Atmospheric Science ,[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] - Abstract
Previous work has shown that anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing drives a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP6 historical simulations over 1850–1985, but the mechanisms have not been fully understood. Across CMIP6 models, it is shown that there is a strong correlation between surface heat loss over the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) and the forced strengthening of the AMOC. Despite the link to AA forcing, the AMOC response is not strongly related to the contribution of anomalous downwelling surface shortwave radiation to SPNA heat loss. Rather, the spread in AMOC response is primarily due to the spread in turbulent heat loss. We hypothesize that turbulent heat loss is larger in models with strong AA forcing because the air advected over the ocean is colder and drier, in turn because of greater AA-forced cooling over the continents upwind, especially North America. The strengthening of the AMOC also feeds back on itself positively in two distinct ways: by raising the sea surface temperature and hence further increasing turbulent heat loss in the SPNA, and by increasing the sea surface density across the SPNA due to increased northward transport of saline water. A comparison of key indices suggests that the AMOC response in models with strong AA forcing is not likely to be consistent with observations.
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- 2022
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4. Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble
- Author
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Yohei Yamada, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Joanne Camp, Dan Fu, Hong Wang, Rein Haarsma, Pier Luigi Vidale, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jenny Mecking, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nan Rosenbloom, Sophie Valcke, Enrico Scoccimarro, Chihiro Kodama, M. P. Moine, Paul A. Ullrich, Laurent Terray, Kevin I. Hodges, Fabrice Chauvin, Alessio Bellucci, Qiuying Zhang, Dian Putrasahan, Lixin Wu, Malcolm J. Roberts, Retish Senan, Ryo Mizuta, Jon Seddon, Benoit Vanniere, Christopher D. Roberts, and Barcelona Supercomputing Center
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future change ,Atmospheric Science ,Informatics ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,High resolution ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,Tracking algorithms ,Oceans ,Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ,Climate change ,Ciclons ,Climatology ,Climate and Interannual Variability ,Oceanography: General ,Geophysics ,Tropical cyclones ,Atmospheric Processes ,Cyclones--Tropics ,Simulacio per ordinador ,Tropical Cyclones ,Tropical cyclone ,Modeling and simulation in science, engineering & technology ,Mathematical Geophysics ,Oceanography: Physical ,Global Climate Models ,Persistence, Memory, Correlations, Clustering ,tracking algorithms ,Future change ,Climate models ,Decadal Ocean Variability ,Paleoceanography ,Extreme Events ,Component (UML) ,Research Letter ,Global Change ,Numerical Modeling ,CMIP6 ,Numerical Solutions ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Model bias ,Desenvolupament humà i sostenible [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] ,Climate Change and Variability ,high resolution ,Climate Variability ,Modeling ,model bias ,Research Letters ,Climate Action ,13. Climate action ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Computational Geophysics ,Hydrology ,Natural Hazards - Abstract
Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050., Key Points Biases in tropical cyclone distribution, frequency, and intensity are generally reduced in models at 25 km resolutionNorthern Hemisphere basins show mixed responses to future forcing, while Southern Indian Ocean activity projected to declineFuture changes in 10 m wind speed in coupled models are mixed, and models with lower bias suggest small increases
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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