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Ontogenic changes in soybean radiation-use efficiency (RUE) have been attributed to variation in specific leaf nitrogen (SLN) based only on data collected during seed filling. We evaluated this hypothesis using data on leaf area, absorbed radiation (ARAD), aboveground dry matter (ADM), and plant nitrogen (N) concentration collected during the entire crop season from seven field experiments conducted in a stress-free environment. Each experiment included a full N treatment that received ample N fertilizer and a zero N treatment that relied on N fixation and soil N mineralization. We estimated RUE based on changes in ADM between sampling times and associated ARAD, accounting for changes in biomass composition. The RUE and SLN exhibited different seasonal patterns: a bell-shaped pattern with a peak around the beginning of seed filling, and a convex pattern followed by an abrupt decline during late seed filling, respectively. Changes in SLN explained the decline in RUE during seed filling but failed to predict changes in RUE in earlier stages and underestimated the maximum RUE observed during pod setting. Comparison between observed and simulated RUE using a process-based crop simulation model revealed similar discrepancies. The decoupling between RUE and SLN during early crop stages suggests that leaf N is above that needed to maximize crop growth but may play a role in storing N that can be used in later reproductive stages to meet the large seed N demand associated with high-yielding crops.

The Amazon basin includes 550 M ha covered with rainforests, with 60% of this area being in Brazil. Conversion of rainforest for soybean production raises concerns about the degree to which Brazil can reconcile production and environmental goals. Here we investigated the degree to which intensification could help Brazil produce more soybean without further encroachment of the Amazon Forest. Our analysis shows that continuation of current trends in soybean yield and area would lead to conversion of additional 5.7 M ha of forests and savannas during the next 15 years, with an associated 2550 Mt of CO2eq released into the atmosphere. In contrast, acceleration of yield improvement, coupled with expansion of soybean area only in areas currently used for livestock production, would allow Brazil to achieve similar economic benefits without deforestation and with substantially lower global climate warming.

Significance After accounting for the effect of climate and improvements in agronomic management, we found the contribution of genetic technologies to increasing maize yield potential in favorable environments was substantially smaller than reported in previous studies. If genetic progress in yield potential is slowing in other environments and for other crops as well, future production gains will increasingly rely on yield gains from improved agronomic practices and/or increasing crop intensity where possible., Quantitative understanding of factors driving yield increases of major food crops is essential for effective prioritization of research and development. Yet previous estimates had limitations in distinguishing among contributing factors such as changing climate and new agronomic and genetic technologies. Here, we distinguished the separate contribution of these factors to yield advance using an extensive database collected from the largest irrigated maize-production domain in the world located in Nebraska (United States) during the 2005-to-2018 period. We found that 48% of the yield gain was associated with a decadal climate trend, 39% with agronomic improvements, and, by difference, only 13% with improvement in genetic yield potential. The fact that these findings were so different from most previous studies, which gave much-greater weight to genetic yield potential improvement, gives urgency to the need to reevaluate contributions to yield advances for all major food crops to help guide future investments in research and development to achieve sustainable global food security. If genetic progress in yield potential is also slowing in other environments and crops, future crop-yield gains will increasingly rely on improved agronomic practices.

As soybean yield continues to increase, it seems critical to know if there is a yield level at which potential contribution of indigenous nitrogen (N) sources (N fixation and soil mineralization) becomes insufficient to meet crop N requirements for high yields, while still maintaining or increasing protein and oil concentration. We have hypothesized that, in absence of other limiting factors, degree of N limitation increases with increasing yield potential (Yp) of the production environment. To test this hypothesis, we developed a novel protocol to ensure an ample N supply during the entire crop season (full-N treatment). That protocol was applied to field-grown irrigated soybean in Balcarce (Argentina) and Nebraska (USA), where measured full-N seed yields were ±15% of their simulated Yp in 92% of the cases. The combination of locations, years, sowing dates, and N treatments resulted in a wide range of seed yields, from 2.5 to 6.5 Mg ha−1. Overall, full-N seed yield averaged 11% higher than seed yield without N addition (zero-N). However, magnitude of yield difference between full-N and zero-N depended upon Yp, ranging from no detectable yield difference in low-Yp (ca. 2.5 Mg ha−1) to up to 900 kg ha−1 in high-Yp environments (ca. 6 Mg ha−1). Seed yield differences were associated with higher aboveground dry matter, seed number, and seed weight in the full-N versus zero-N treatments. Seed protein (but not oil) concentration was higher in the full-N treatment, and both protein and oil yields were higher in the full-N versus zero-N treatments. Findings from this study indicate that (i) N limits soybean seed yield (as well as protein yield, and oil yield) in environments with high Yp, where indigenous N sources seem insufficient to fully satisfy crop N requirements, and (ii) yield response to N fertilizer can occur above a 2.5 Mg ha−1 Yp threshold and has an upper limit of 250 kg seed per Mg increase in Yp. Fil: Cafaro la Menza, Nicolás. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. University of Nebraska; Estados Unidos Fil: Monzon, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires Sur. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce; Argentina Fil: Specht, James E.. University of Nebraska; Estados Unidos Fil: Grassini, Patricio. University of Nebraska; Estados Unidos

Favorable climate and soils for rainfed crop production, together with a relatively low population density, results in 70–90% of Argentina grain production being exported. No assessment to date has tried to estimate the potential for extra grain production for soybean, wheat and maize, which account for 78% of total harvested area, by yield gap closure on existing cropland area and its impact at a global scale. The objectives of this paper are (i) to estimate how much additional grain could be produced without expanding crop area by closing yield gaps in Argentina, (ii) to investigate how this production and yield gaps varies across regions and years, and (iii) to analyze how these inter-annual variations are related to El Niño—Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO). Production increase on existing crop area was assessed for soybean, wheat and maize by quantifying the yield gap (Yg), that is, the difference between water-limited yield potential (Yw) and actual yield (Ya). A bottom-up approach was followed to estimate Yw and Yg, in which these parameters were first estimated for specific locations in major crop producing areas and subsequently up-scaled to country level based on spatial distribution of crop area and climate zones. Locally-calibrated crop simulation models were used to estimate Yw at each selected location based on long-term weather data and dominant soil types and management practices. For the analyzed period, the national level Yg represented 41% of Yw for both wheat and maize and 32% of the Yw for soybean. If farmers had closed Yg from these levels to 20% of Yw, Argentina could have increased soybean, wheat and maize production by a respective 7.4, 5.2, and 9.2 Mt, without expanding cropland area. This additional production would have represented an increase of 9%, 4%, and 9% of soybean, wheat, and maize global exports. This potential grain surplus was, however, highly variable because of the ENSO phenomenon: attainable soybean production was 12 Mt higher in favorable “El Niño” years compared with unfavorable “La Niña” years. Interestingly, Yg tended to be higher in wet years, suggesting that farmers do not take full advantage of years with favorable conditions for rainfed crop production. Regional variation in Yg was found in Argentina highlighting the usefulness of this work as a framework to target research and, ultimately, reduce gaps in areas where current yields are well below their potential. EEA Balcarce Fil: Aramburu Merlos, Fernando. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce. Unidad Integrada. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina Fil: Monzon, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina Fil: Mercau, Jorge Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria San Luis; Argentina Fil: Taboada, Miguel Angel. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Suelos; Argentina Fil: Andrade, Fernando Hector. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce. Unidad Integrada. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina Fil: Hall, Antonio Juan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; Argentina Fil: Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina Fil: Cassman, Kenneth G. Universidad de Nebraska - Lincoln. Department of Agronomy and Horticulture; Estados Unidos Fil: Grassini, Patricio. Universidad de Nebraska - Lincoln. Department of Agronomy and Horticulture; Estados Unidos