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As the effects of global climate change intensify, it is increasingly important to implement more effective water management practices, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such as Meoqui, Chihuahua, situated in the arid northern center of Mexico. The objective of this study was to identify the optimal time-series model for analyzing the pattern of water extraction volumes and predicting a one-year forecast. It was hypothesized that the volume of water extracted over time could be explained by a statistical time-series model, with the objective of predicting future trends. To achieve this objective, three time-series models were evaluated. To assess the pattern of groundwater extraction, three time-series models were employed: the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), Prophet, and Prophet with extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The mean extraction volume for the entire period was 50,935 ± 47,540 m3, with a total of 67,233,578 m3 extracted from all wells. The greatest volume of water extracted has historically been from urban wells, with an average extraction of 55,720 ± 48,865 m3 and a total of 63,520,284 m3. The mean extraction volume for raw water wells was determined to be 20,629 ± 19,767 m3, with a total extraction volume of 3,713,294 m3. The SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,0)12 model was identified as the optimal time-series model for general extraction, while a "white noise" model, an ARIMA(0,1,0) for raw water, and an SARIMA(2,1,1)(2,0,0)12 model were identified as optimal for urban wells. These findings serve to reinforce the efficacy of the SARIMA model in forecasting and provide a basis for water resource managers in the region to develop policies that promote sustainable water management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The prevalence of foreleg distal asymmetry and its relationship with the size of the feed bunk were studied in two farms (G60 and G100) in northern Mexico. The prevalence was 27.6% (G60: 31.4%, G100: 22.4%); principal component analysis revealed that the weight variables associated with leg diseases were the farm (G60) and three out of twelve pens in G100. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that the weight variables for leg diseases were the farm (G60) and three out of twelve pens in G100. The prevalence was related to the width of the feed bunks and the width of the manure crust on them. The proper cleaning of feed bunks and their adequate design and construction are strategies that can reduce lameness and premature culling of cows. Leg torsion and distal asymmetry (LTDA) among cows reared on intensive farms in the Comarca Lagunera region of northern Mexico may be indicative of underlying health concerns. To ascertain whether the incidence of LTDA is associated with trough measurements and with productive, reproductive, and disease variables, the prevalence of LTDA was determined in lactating dairy cows. The data were derived from two intensive dairy farms in northern Mexico (G60: 2043 cows in 13 pens with 142.0 m of linear feed bunk space and 65.0 m of pen depth; G100: 2227 cows in 12 pens with 215.0 m of linear feed bunk space and 49.0 m of pen depth). The cows were observed over the course of a week to identify any macroscopic lesions indicative of LTDA. Cows exhibiting lesions were assigned a value of "1", while those without lesions were assigned a value of "0". Furthermore, data regarding other limb diseases (LDs) were collected and subjected to analysis. A comparison was conducted to ascertain the impact of reproductive, productive, and feed bunk size variables on the prevalence of LTDA and other LDs. To ascertain the prevalence of LTDA and LDs, a chi-squared test was employed. The prevalence of LTDA was found to be 27.6% (G60: 31.4%, G100: 22.4%). No association was identified between LTDA and the variables included in the study. However, a correlation was identified between LDs and the following variables: total width, distance from the edge, width from the feed bunk to the tramp, and the presence of a manure crust on the walls. Principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted to examine the correlation between LDs and various factors at the farm and pen levels. The findings indicated that the distance from the feed bunk to the trough, the presence of manure crusts on the walls, and the breeding time were associated with LDs in G100, as well as in three of the twelve pens (302, 306, and 308) within G100. The findings suggest that the prevalence of LDs is associated with an increase in the width of the feed bunk and the width of the manure crust on the walls, particularly in pregnant cows. The results permit the conclusion that LTDA and LDs are associated with the measurements of the feed bunks, the absence of manure cleaning of the feed bunks, and gestation. This association gives rise to significant health issues for Holstein cows on these farms, with more than one in four cows affected. To reduce the prevalence of LTDA in lactating dairy cows, it is recommended that the standard measurements for feed bunk design be adhered to. This will reduce the prevalence of LTDA and LDs, promote the cleaning protocols to avoid the accumulation of manure crusts, and facilitate close monitoring of pregnant cows, thereby alleviating the impacts of these foot pathologies on animal welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water is a vital resource for sustaining life and for numerous processes within the transformation industry. It is a finite resource, albeit one that can be renewed, and thus sustainable management is imperative. To achieve this objective, it is necessary to have the appropriate tools to assist with the planning policies for its management. This paper presents a time series analysis approach to measure and predict the pattern of water consumption by humans throughout subsectors (domestic, commercial, public sector, education, industry, and raw water) and total water consumption in Meoqui, Chihuahua, Mexico with data from 2011 to 2023, applying calibration model techniques to measure uncertainty in the forecasting. The municipality of Meoqui encompasses an area of 342 km2. The climate is semi-arid, with an average annual rainfall of 272 mm and average temperatures of 26.4 °C in summer and 9.7 °C in winter. The municipal seat, which has a population of 23,140, is supplied with water from ten wells, with an average consumption of 20 ± 579 m3 per user. The consumption of the general population indicates the existence of a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) (0,1,2)(0,0,2)12 model. (Sen's Slope = 682.7, p < 0.001). The domestic sector exhibited the highest overall consumption, with a total volume of 17,169,009 m3 (13 ± 93). A SARIMA (2,1,0)(2,0,0)12 model was estimated, with a Sen's slope of 221.65 and a p-value of less than 0.001. The second-largest consumer of total water was the "raw water" sector, which consumed 5,124,795 (30,146 ± 35,841) m3 and exhibited an SARIMA (0,1,1)(2,0,0)12 model with no statistically significant trend. The resulting models will facilitate the company's ability to define water resource management strategies in a sustainable manner, in alignment with projected consumption trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objetive: To determine the socioeconomic factors that affect the yield of the cocoa crop (Theobroma cacao L.) in Nicaragua. This research will contribute to provide information, precise and necessary to the design of projects and research focused to the needs and reality of cocoa crops smolholders. Methodology: A multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and multinomial logistic regression (MLR) were performed. 28 social and economic variables were used. A survey in 2018 with a sample of 140 farms, from a universe of 923, was conducted, 23 communities located in the municipalities of Rancho Grande, Río Blanco and Matiguás in the North center of Nicaragua Results: The MCA results indicate that the correlated variables with the greatest impact were the change in yield and the support received by the producers. The decrease in yields is due to the lack of of support, but also to formal support, represented mainly as a acces to credit, the increase in yields occurs when informal support is received. Conclusions: The yield of cocoa changes according to the support received. Limitations: The research shows that cocoa production in the área of study is affected according to the type of support received. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The environment in which an animal is situated can have a profound impact on its health, welfare, and productivity. This phenomenon is particularly evident in the case of dairy cattle, then, in order to quantify the impact of ambient temperature (°C) and the relative humidity (%) on dairy cattle, the temperature-humidity index (THI) is employed as a metric. This indicator enables the practical estimation of the stress imposed on cattle by ambient temperature and humidity. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) (4,1,0)(0,1,0) 365 model was estimated using daily data from the maximum daily THI of 4 years (2016-2019) of the Comarca Lagunera, an arid region of central-northern Mexico. The resulting model indicated that the THI of any given day in the area can be estimated based on the THI values of the previous four days. Furthermore, the data demonstrate an annual increase in the number of days the THI indicates a risk of heat stress. It is essential to continue building predictive models to develop effective strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of heat stress in dairy cattle (and other species) in the region., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© 2024 Herrera-González et al.)