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4. Reply to Comment by Mandel et al. on “Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively”

Author

King, Andrew D, Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E, Wehner, Michael F, and Lewis, Sophie C

Subjects
extreme events, climate change, attribution, communication, Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Environmental Science and Management
Abstract

We thank the Comment's authors for their considered critique of our paper. We respond to their main criticisms and hope that this discussion motivates further consideration of communication strategies for event attribution analyses.

Published
2021

6. Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies

Author

Lewis, Sophie C, King, Andrew D, Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E, and Wehner, Michael F

Subjects
Basic Behavioral and Social Science, Behavioral and Social Science, Climate Action, extreme events, climate change, attribution, communication, Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Environmental Science and Management
Abstract

Extreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These studies are of broad scientific and public interest, although quantitative results (e.g., that a specific event was made a specific number of times more likely because of anthropogenic forcings) can be difficult to communicate accurately to a variety of audiences and difficult for audiences to interpret. Here, we focus on how results of these studies can be effectively communicated using standardized language and propose, for the first time, a set of calibrated terms to describe event attribution results. Using these terms and an accompanying visual guide, results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties. This standardized language will allow clearer communication and interpretation of probabilities by the public and stakeholders.

Published
2019

8. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2016 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidi, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., Schreck, Carl J., Stott, Peter A., Webb, Robert S., Werner, Francisco E., Knutson, Thomas R., Kam, Jonghun, Zeng, Fanrong, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Brainard, Russell E., Oliver, Thomas, McPhaden, Michael J., Cohen, Anne, Venegas, Robert o, Heenan, Adel, Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo, Rotjan, Randi, Mangubhai, Sangeeta, Flint, Elizabeth, Hunter, Susan A., Oliver, Eric C. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Holbrook, Neil J., Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Tett, Simon F. B., Falk, Alexander, Rogers, Megan, Spuler, Fiona, Turner, Calum, Wainwright, Joshua, Dimdore-Miles, Oscar, Knight, Sam, Freychet, Nicolas, Mineter, Michael J., Lehmann, Caroline E. R., Martins, Eduardo S. P. R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Haarsma, Rein, Otto, Friederike E. L., King, Andrew D., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Vasconcelos, Francisco C., Cullen, Heidi, Jézéquel, Aglaé, Yiou, Pascal, Radanovics, Sabine, Vautard, Robert, Sippel, Sebastian, El-Madany, Tarek S., Migliavacca, Mirco, Mahecha, Miguel D., Carrara, Arnaud, Flach, Milan, Kaminski, Thomas, Otto, Friederike E. L., Thonicke, Kirsten, Vossbeck, Michael, Reichstein, Markus, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Linying, Wood, Eric F., Funk, Chris, Davenport, Frank, Harrison, Laura, Magadzire, Tamuka, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid A., Shukla, Shraddhanand, Korecha, Diriba, Indeje, Matayo, Pomposi, Catherine, Macharia, Denis, Husak, Gregory, Nsadisa, Faka Dieudonne, Imada, Yukiko, Shiogama, Hideo, Takahashi, Chiharu, Watanabe, Masahiro, Mori, Masato, Kamae, Youichi, Maeda, Shuhei, Sun, Qiaohong, Miao, Chiyuan, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Shanshan, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Qian, Cheng, Wang, Jun, Dong, Siyan, Yin, Hong, Burke, Claire, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dong, Buwen, Freychet, Nicolas, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sun, Ying, Hu, Ting, Zhang, Xuebin, Wan, Hui, Stott, Peter, Lu, Chunhui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan, Ciavarella, Andrew, Stott, Peter A., Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Hendon, Harry, Wang, Guomin, Lewis, Sophie C., Mallela, Jennie, Grose, Michael R., Black, Mitchell, Risbey, James S., Uhe, Peter, Hope, Pandora K., Haustein, Karsten, Mitchell, Dann, Stott, Peter A., Christidis, Nikos, Herring, Stephanie C., Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., and Schreck, Carl J.

Published
2018

12. Mental health through a spiritual lens : recognising its role in psychological interventions and in how we make sense of our difficulties

Author

Lewis, Sophie

Subjects
616.89, Health sciences, Social work, Clinical psychology
Abstract

This portfolio thesis has three parts. Part one comprises a systematic literature review, wherein the effectiveness of psychological interventions that integrate religion or spirituality are considered. Part two is an empirical research paper, wherein the role of spirituality is explored when individuals are making sense of hearing voices. Part three collates the appendices, containing supporting documentation and information for the systematic literature review and empirical research paper, as well as epistemological and reflective statements.

Published
2017

13. Cyborg labour : exploring surrogacy as gestational work

Author

Lewis, Sophie and Swyngedouw, Erik

Subjects
550, polymaternalism, surrogacy, utopian reproduction, social reproduction, reproductive technology, cyborg
Abstract

Commercial gestational surrogacy, also called contract pregnancy, involves privately contracting a biogenetically curated pregnancy using IVF. It distinguishes itself from what is commonly considered 'natural' in procreation, in that the human fetuses it produces are formally entered into a legal unit other than the family of the gestator. My work here contends that this practice is best thought, not in isolation, but in the context of social reproduction more generally and as a central component of future geographies of fetal manufacture that would treat (all) pregnancy as work. This project demands, for me, a critical revisiting of theoretic texts like Mary O'Brien's The Politics of Reproduction (O'Brien 1981). But, in my reading, O'Brien's race-blind gynocentrism doomed her to miss the ensemble of practices - forms of surrogacy among them - that have already long been engaged in the sublation of reproductive labour she professes (yet defers until after the revolution). In geography as in O'Brien, the political horizon of reproductive justice theorised by Black and/or Marxist feminists since the 1970s (Davis 1981; Ross et al. 2016), has been neglected. In assembling materials for a future rewriting of "The Politics of Reproduction" in the context of geography -a trans-inclusive uterine geography- I draw on this canon of reproductive justice first. I question the assumption that there can ever be an absence of surrogacy (i.e. an absence of assistance, co-production, or "sym-poesis" (Haraway 2016)) in babymaking. Thus I explore the synthetic substance of surrogacy synthetically, using a lens I call 'gestational labour': a conceptual hybrid of the postwork perspective on care (Weeks 2011; Federici 1975), the Marxist-feminist concept 'clinical labour' (Cooper and Waldby 2014) and cyborgicity (Haraway 1991). Deploying 'gestational labour' together with a commitment to solidarity vis-à-vis surrogates, I analyse recent events, pro- and anti-surrogacy discourses (both clinical-capitalist and activist), and trends in critical literature that illuminate an immanent 'uterine geography' (or fail to). I aim to demonstrate that the technophobic anticommodification critique of surrogacy's detractors is ultimately as insufficient as the class-blind ('philanthrocapitalist') feminism of surrogacy's sales representatives. My point is that so-called natural forms of the family are themselves already 'technologies of reproductive assistance' differently mediated in the market. Our task is unfortunately neither a matter of simply saying 'stop', nor of pretending that the satisfaction people feel in "mutually advantageous exploitation" (Panitch 2013), on such an unequal playing-field, is somehow 'enough'.Surrogate gestators sometimes show us glimpses of 'mothering against motherhood'. They expose gestation as a cyborg form of labour-power, which is to say, collective human activity always already mixed up with 'technologies' on the one hand and strange more-than-human organisms on the other. Pitting surrogacy against surrogacy, I propose keeping our understanding of what surrogacy could mean radically open. On this basis, I point readers and potential future collaborators towards new kinds of sym-poetic geographical practice: surrogacies - or, engagements with reproductive politics in the broadest sense - which I think our historic moment urgently requires.

Published
2017

19. chapter 20: DECONSTRUCTING FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE 2018 FIRE WEATHER IN QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA

Author

Lewis, Sophie C., Blake, Stephanie A.P., Trewin, Blair, Black, Mitchell T., Dowdy, Andrew J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., King, Andrew D., and Sharples, Jason J.

Subjects
Wildfires -- Environmental aspects, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

Factors including the circulation pattern and antecedent conditions contributed to 2018 northeast Australian fires. High background temperatures also played a role for which model evidence suggests an anthropogenic influence. EVENT [...]

Published
2020
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21. Safeguarding customary forest tenure in the Mekong Region: a legal analysis.

Author

Lewis, Sophie Rose, Faure, Nathalie, Leonard, Sonia, Pen, Ratana, Ba Ngai, Nguyen, and Phengsopha, Kaisone

Abstract

Customary forest tenure is under increasing pressure from various actors for economic, political, and environmental purposes. The erosion of customary forest tenure can impair societal nature relations, erode traditional practices, and contribute to environmental degradation. In the Mekong Region, customary forest tenure largely remains unprotected through national laws. This article presents a legal analysis examining the extent to which the legal frameworks of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam contain legal provisions for safeguarding customary forest tenure within different resource systems, agricultural land, swidden land and forests, drawing on Schlager and Ostrom's bundle of property rights. The legal analysis shows significant gaps exist in legal frameworks to safeguard customary tenure. We recommend that policies toward statutory recognition be developed from the ground up and consider the harmonisation between land and forest laws and relevant implementing ministries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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33. 28. A MULTIFACTOR RISK ANALYSIS OF THE RECORD 2016 GREAT BARRIER REEF BLEACHING: Anthropogenic greenhouse gases likely increased the risk of the extreme Great Barrier Reef bleaching event through anomalously high sea surface temperature and the accumulation of thermal stress

Author

Lewis, Sophie C. and Mallela, Jennie

Subjects
Great Barrier Reef -- Environmental aspects, Coral reefs -- Environmental aspects, Greenhouse gases -- Environmental aspects, Coral bleaching -- Environmental aspects -- Forecasts and trends, Risk assessment, Market trend/market analysis, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

Introduction. The 2016 global coral bleaching event was severe: 93% of the northern, 700km stretch, of the Australian Great Barrier Reef (GBR) coral was bleached and by June, >60% of [...]

Published
2018
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39. Assessing the Impact of Large Volcanic Eruptions of the Last Millennium (850-1850 CE) on Australian Rainfall Regimes

Author

Blake, Stephanie A. P, Lewis, Sophie C, LeGrande, Allegra N, and Miller, Ron L

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

Explosive volcanism is an important natural climate forcing, impacting global surface temperatures and regional precipitation. Although previous studies have investigated aspects of the impact of tropical volcanism on various ocean–atmosphere systems and regional climate regimes, volcanic eruptions remain a poorly understood climate forcing and climatic responses are not well constrained. In this study, volcanic eruptions are explored in particular reference to Australian precipitation, and both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using nine realizations of the last millennium (LM) (850–1850CE) with different time-evolving forcing combinations, from the NASA GISS ModelE2-R, the impact of the six largest tropical volcanic eruptions of this period are investigated. Overall, we find that volcanic aerosol forcing increased the likelihood of El Niño and positive IOD conditions for up to four years following an eruption, and resulted in positive precipitation anomalies over north-west (NW) and south-east (SE) Australia. Larger atmospheric sulfate loading during larger volcanic eruptions coincided with more persistent positive IOD and El Niño conditions, enhanced positive precipitation anomalies over NW Australia, and dampened precipitation anomalies over SE Australia.

Published
2018
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40. Comparing Proxy and Model Estimates of Hydroclimate Variability and Change over the Common Era

Author

Smerdon, Jason E, Luterbacher, Jurg, Phipps, Steven J, Anchukaitis, Kevin J, Ault, Toby, Coats, Sloan, Cobb, Kim M, Cook, Benjamin I, Colose, Chris, Felis, Thomas, Gallant, Ailie, Jungclaus, Johann H, Konecky, Bronwen, LeGrande, Allegra, Lewis, Sophie, Lopatka, Alex S, Man, Wenmin, Mankin, Justin S, Maxwell, Justin T, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L, Partin, Judson W, Singh, Deepti, Steiger, Nathan J, Stevenson, Samantha, Tierney, Jessica E, Zanchettin, Davide, Zhang, Huan, Atwood , Alyssa R, Andreu-Hayles, Laia, Baek, Seung H, Buckley, Brendan, Cook, Edward R, D’Arrigo, Rosanne, Dee, Sylvia G, Griffiths, Michael L, Kulkarni, Charuta, Kushnir, Yochanan, Lehner, Flavio, Leland, Caroline, Linderholm, Hans W, Okazaki, Atsushi, Palmer, Jonathan, Piovano, Eduardo, Raible, Christoph C, Rao, Mukund P, Scheff, Jacob, Schmidt, Gavin A, Seager, Richard, Widmann, Martin, Williams, A. Park, and Xoplaki, Elena

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations.We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.

Published
2017
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47. Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Author

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, primary, Krikken, Folmer, additional, Lewis, Sophie, additional, Leach, Nicholas J., additional, Lehner, Flavio, additional, Saunders, Kate R., additional, van Weele, Michiel, additional, Haustein, Karsten, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Wallom, David, additional, Sparrow, Sarah, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Singh, Roop K., additional, van Aalst, Maarten K., additional, Philip, Sjoukje Y., additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, and Otto, Friederike E. L., additional

Published
2021
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