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Contemporary societies have challenges in achieving sustainable development, while African economies remain quite distant from this ideal course for sustainable growth. Likewise, official statistics in South Africa show a wide gap between male and female involvement in economic activities. Given this, the study investigates the connection between three dimensions of sustainable development and female advancement in South Africa using auto-regressive disturbed lags (ARDL), Structural Vector autoregressive (SVAR) and Ganger non-causality approach. The three dimensions of sustainable development considered in this study are economic, environmental and social, proxies by adjusted net national savings, carbon emissions and adjusted net national income per capita, respectively. The female advancement indicators are proxies by employment, wages and salaries, and secondary school enrolment. The result from the ARDL shows that female advancement indicators promote short (SR) and long-run (LR) economic sustainability. Also, female wages and salaries have a positive relationship with carbon emissions in the SR but not significantly in the LR. At the same time, female employment and secondary school enrolment have a positive relationship with carbon emissions in the SR but are negative in the LR. The primary causes affecting long-term environmental sustainability are GDP per capita, financial development, population density, trade openness and urbanisation. Also, female advancement indicators promote social sustainability, especially employment, wages and salaries. More so, the SVAR results show that the forecasting error shock of GDP has minimal effect on carbon emission with notable variation in the population density. The causality result shows a unidirectional relationship between economic sustainability and female secondary school enrolment, environmental sustainability and female secondary school enrolment, and social sustainability and female secondary school enrolment, all flowing to female secondary school enrolment. Based on the findings, the study recommended improving female educational standards and increasing involvement in economic participation.

Whether in developed or developing countries, the construction industry had a vital part to play concerning the GDP throughout the ages. The increasing inflation since the pandemic affected numerous main sectors, no doubt construction industry is not different and has not been immune to. The presence of inflation and resultant interest rate influence the growth of the economic sector. There have been no reported studies to evaluate the impact on construction industry, nor a comparative analysis at continental level for selective countries. The study designed to explore the long-run (LR) and causality (CA) of the inflation and interest rate on the GDP and the construction sector depending on the four selected variables and models from 1991 to 2022 on nine selected countries from Americas, Asia and Europe that are facing ever-rising inflation in most recent years. Data of the study have been collated from official databases, where the sources are introduced. The research concluded that the interest rate and inflation have positive bidirectional long run estimates in seven countries which that impact negatively on the economic growth. However, it is also found that the impact of inflation and interest rate on the GDP and the construction sector differs from country to country. It is shown that the high inflation and interest rate issue can also pushes GDP upwards, not necessarily on real value.

Along with the rapid growth of technology, payment instruments are also changing. Electronic money is slowly but surely replacing the role of paper money and coins. The emergence of electronic money can provide convenience for consumers, it can lead to an increase in the demand for goods and services that ultimately leads to demand-pull inflation.The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of electronic money transactions (both in natural and in value terms) on inflation growth. By using the Chow Breakpoint Test, Difference-in-Differences and Propensity Score Matching shows that the inflation trend has tended to decline since the Bank of Indonesia launched its national non-cash campaign.By using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method was revealed that an increase in the volume of electronic money transactions in the long-term may affect a decrease in inflation, but not in the short-term. The rate of interest of the Bank of Indonesia, the growth of lending and GDP led to the decline in inflation.It was concluded that the Bank of Indonesia could expand the use of electronic money to manipulate inflation levels in the long-term. The policy that can be implemented by Bank Indonesia is to distribute electronic money infrastructure services more evenly and increase the socialization of the use of electronic money, especially in remote areas.

Tourism has become one of the most important sectors in many countries, significantly contributing to their economic growth and development. However, the expansion of tourism has also brought about various environmental and social challenges. The relationship between tourism, economic growth, trade openness, and the environment is diverse and complex. The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the international tourism development index, GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, trade openness index as well as the energy intensity index in EU 27, over the 1995–2019 period. A composite index for international tourism was developed using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Panel Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is used to reveal the long- and short-run impact of GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, trade openness index as well as the energy intensity index on the tourism development index. Panel ARDL estimates confirm some of our research hypotheses: at the level of EU countries, there is a short-run relationship between tourism and GDP per capita, but only in a few EU countries, trade openness influences tourism development index. Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test confirms long-run feedback relationship between tourism development index and trade openness, between tourism development index and CO2 emissions, and between tourism development index and GDP and unilateral causality running from tourism development index towards energy efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether in developed or developing countries, the construction industry had a vital part to play concerning the GDP throughout the ages. The increasing inflation since the pandemic affected numerous main sectors, no doubt construction industry is not different and has not been immune to. The presence of inflation and resultant interest rate influence the growth of the economic sector. There have been no reported studies to evaluate the impact on construction industry, nor a comparative analysis at continental level for selective countries. The study designed to explore the long-run (LR) and causality (CA) of the inflation and interest rate on the GDP and the construction sector depending on the four selected variables and models from 1991 to 2022 on nine selected countries from Americas, Asia and Europe that are facing ever-rising inflation in most recent years. Data of the study have been collated from official databases, where the sources are introduced. The research concluded that the interest rate and inflation have positive bidirectional long run estimates in seven countries which that impact negatively on the economic growth. However, it is also found that the impact of inflation and interest rate on the GDP and the construction sector differs from country to country. It is shown that the high inflation and interest rate issue can also pushes GDP upwards, not necessarily on real value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

J.M. Keynes in his celebrated "General Theory" works on a temporal / analytical horizon of "short-run", as the capital stock of the economy is kept constant. Alternatively, considering a horizon in which the capital stock can vary, this essay rethinks the "liquidity trap" framework, observing its consequences on the level of employment, as well as on the level of utilization of the economy's productive capacity. Based on the inner logic of the "General Theory", it is concluded that the Keynesian restriction of demand will be kept in the "long-run", but through the reduction of the capital stock and not via unemployment, recovering the possibility of full-employment even in a scenario of Keynesian uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The macroeconomics and traditional stock market nexus is widely explored in the extant literature, but few studies have focused on the impact of macroeconomics on Islamic stock markets. In fact, to our knowledge, only one or two prior studies have looked into both conventional and Islamic stock markets at the same time to see the impact of macroeconomics for comparison purposes. However, these studies have found differing views. Besides, no study has looked into the issue from the standpoint of Bangladesh. To close the gap, the study primarily explores the effect of macroeconomic variables on Islamic and conventional stock indices. Also, it looks at which index (Islamic or conventional) is more susceptible to macroeconomic shocks. The DSEX Shariah Index and the DSE Broad Index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) are chosen as Islamic and conventional stock indices, respectively. In contrast, inflation rate, money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate are selected as proxies of macroeconomic variables. Using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Granger causality approaches for the monthly data from January 2014 to June 2021, our findings indicate that aggregate money supply has a positive long-term influence on both Islamic and conventional indices, whereas interest rates have a negative impact. Conversely, in the short run, the interest rate has a favorable impact on both indices. However, inflation only has a short-term impact on the Islamic stock index. Overall, the findings suggest that both indices behave almost analogously with the macroeconomic variables. Therefore, Islamic investors can undoubtedly choose Islamic stocks for their portfolios without sacrificing significant financial losses. Our study also provides some vital policy implications. Since our study finds a strong link between macroeconomics and stock markets, we urge the monetary authority to align their policies with those of the stock markets in Bangladesh because there were previously some inconsistencies in the policies of the monetary authority and stock markets, which appeared to be partly responsible for the recent stock market crash in Bangladesh in 2010-2011. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To capture the dynamics of idiosyncratic volatility of stock returns over different horizons and investigate the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and expected stock returns, this paper develops and estimates a parsimonious model of idiosyncratic volatility consisting of a short-run and a long-run component. The conditional short-run and long-run components are found to be positively and negatively related to expected stock returns, respectively. The positive relation between the short-run component and stock returns may be caused by investors requiring compensation for bearing idiosyncratic volatility risk when facing trading frictions and hold underdiversified portfolios. The negative relationship between the long-run component and stock returns may reflect the fact that stocks with high long-run idiosyncratic volatility are less exposed to systematic risk factors and, hence, earn lower returns. Moreover, the low-risk exposure of stocks characterized by high idiosyncratic volatility lends support to real-option-based mechanisms to explain this negative relation. In particular, the systematic risk of a firm with abundant growth options crucially depends upon the risk exposure of these options. The value of growth options could rise significantly because of convexity when the increase in idiosyncratic volatility occurs over long horizons. And growth options' systematic risk could fall because the relative magnitude of their value in relation to systematic risk factors decreases. This paper was accepted by David Simchi-Levi, finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: The relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and real gross domestic product per capita in Nigeria. However, there seems to be a short-run or long-run relationship among the macroeconomic variables.

This study attempts to investigate how the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) influence the UK economic policy uncertainty. Using daily data ranging from 11 March 2020 to 7 May 2020, an ARDL model has been applied in this study to capture both the short-run and long-run impact of COVID-19 on economic policy uncertainty. Additionally, the influence of Brent oil price on economic policy uncertainty is also examined. Based on the ARDL result, it is found that both COVID-19 new cases and new deaths reported in the UK have a strong and positive association with the UK economic policy uncertainty in the long-run. However, Brent oil price shows an inverse connection with economic policy uncertainty in the long run.

Purpose. Despite the increasing trend of private savings in Nigeria, the country is still characterised by low investment and output growth, thus, suggesting that the average saving rate is still far from being impressive. This study investigates the determinants of private savings in Nigeria. Methodology. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model using annual time series data from 1981 to 2016 within the theoretical framework derived from the life-cycle hypothesis is employed in this study. The key variables under investigation are private savings, income, dependency ratio, real interest rate, social security payment, financial development and macroeconomic stability. The data used for analysis are sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2016) and World Development Indicator (2016). Findings. The results show that lifetime income and social security payment have significant positive relationship with private saving in the long-run, while adult dependency has significant negative relationship. In the short-run, adult dependency and social security payment have significant positive relationship with private savings. In addition, the result shows that 62% of deviation from the long-run equilibrium level of private savings is annually corrected for by the model estimated. Originality. This research investigates both the long-run and short-run effects of the various determinants of private savings in Nigeria. Thus, the study can serve as eye opener to the important variables that can improve the level of private savings in Nigeria.

Knowing the possible presence of a long-term connection between exports and imports is important both for current and future macroeconomic policies and for the sustainability of the current account deficit. The existence of a long-term relationship between variables of interest implies that the countries are not in violation of their budget constraints. Moreover, it means that their macro policies are effective. In this context, this paper aims to investigate whether the long-term equilibrium relationship between exports and imports in the emerging and growth-leading economies (EAGLEs) is symmetric or asymmetric. The EAGLE is an acronym introduced by the Spanish bank BBVA in 2010. The members of the EAGLEs are Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea, Russia, Taiwan, and Turkey. The annual dataset covers the period from 1960 to 2017. For further comparison, on the one hand, I employed autoregressive distributed lag bound test (ARDL) for analysing symmetric long-term relation among the variables. On the other hand, asymmetric long run convergence is examined via nonlinear ARDL method. According to the results of the linear ARDL test, there exists a strong cointegration association between exports and imports for 3 out of 10 countries. However, the evidence from nonlinear ARDL test shows that the null hypothesis stating the lack of cointegration can be rejected for 8 out of 10 countries. The existence of the cointegration link amongst the series indicates that the trade imbalances are short-term phenomenon and are sustainable in the long-term. In other words, these countries are not in violation of their intertemporal budget constraint.

The present paper aims to investigate the impact of coffee exports on long-term economic growth in an open economy for 32 countries exporting coffee over the period of 1994-2013. The study applied a dynamic panel Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) modelling approach with estimators. All variables involved in the specified model were found to be stationary of order I (1) at a first difference. The Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) long-run results suggest the presence of a significant positive effect of coffee exports on economic growth. The empirical findings of the study suggest policy implications, promoting the coffee sector to boost the countries' economy.

Objective: As part of a developing country, Indonesia is concerned with issues related to investment inflows and trade liberalization. The objective of this study is to examine whether or not inward foreign direct investment (FDI) influence to export performance in Indonesia over the time period 1980-2018. Research Design & Methods: We apply Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillip-Perron unit root test to check the stationarity. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bound test is applied to check co-integration existence. Findings: Results present that the variables are stationary at first differences I(1). The ARDL bound testing co-integration approach confirms that there is long-run relationship between considered variables. The findings also indicate the significant positive impacts of FDI on exports in long run and in the short run. The result of the Granger causality test confirms that there is a unidirectional causal relationship existing between the variables where export has a Granger cause to FDI. Results of stability test suggest that there is structural stability in the residuals of the equation of exports. Contribution & Value Added: FDI does not work uniformly in all sectors, and policymakers should understand the difference and identify their sector-wise policies relating with FDI. The law and order should also be maintained, which is the essential part to attract foreign investors. At this stage, we can also set the direction of future research, that is, the sector-wise study should be done on the relationship between FDI and exports.

Islamic banking and finance has emerged as one component of a significant competitive and comprehensive market, where it is reliable with conventional financial development in term of economic contribution. As of today, Islamic banking accounts for minimum of 11 percent growth in Malaysia economic development and indirectly contributes to the global agenda of developing sustainable growth. Thus, this paper aim to empirically assess the dynamic contribution of Islamic banking towards economic growth in Malaysia based on selected variables, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), total deposit, total financing, total assets and non – performing loan. The quarterly time – series data from (2007: Q1 – 2014: Q1) are used to uncover short–run and long–run relationship between real GDP and Islamic banking key financial indicators. Using a battery of time series econometric techniques, we document that there is robust evidence suggesting favourable result where Islamic banking does contribute towards economic growth in the long-run where total deposit, total financing and total assets of Islamic banking have positive relationship where non – performing loan is found to have negative relationship. To test the causality relationship of variables in the short-run, the Wald – test Granger Causality has been carried out and it shows that there is evidence of a bidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and total deposit of Islamic banks. In addition, bidirectional relationship is also exists between non-performing loan and total deposit of Islamic banks. However, majority of the variables are found to be having unidirectional causality relationship among the variables. Overall, our conclusion state that Islamic banking and finance still act as one of the dominant key contributor to Malaysian economic development and growth. The results obtained in this paper are much more robust to alternative econometric specifications.

This study examines long-run stock performance for acquirers from years 2000 to 2013. Since acquisitions create agency problem and companies in Malaysia exhibit concentrated ownership structures, this study aims to investigate four major objectives which consist of the effects of family control, blockholder activism, board structures and deal characteristics on stock performance of acquirers. In addressing these objectives, the abnormal returns over 36 months are adopted as the proxy for the long-run stock performance, respectively. Moreover, ordinary least squares regression methods are used to examine the effects of the 16 factors on abnormal returns. The results show that Malaysian market can be considered as efficient, as most of the analyses show that the performance of acquirers does not differ from those of the matching firms. The findings imply that managers of family-controlled firms do not have to worry about investors penalizing them, as long as they engage in value-creating acquisitions. Moreover, institutional blockholders should play an active role if they want to protect their investments. Finally, investors have to realize that over the long run, there is no trading strategy that could be adopted to earn abnormal profit.

Purpose. Despite the increasing trend of private savings in Nigeria, the country is still characterised by low investment and output growth, thus, suggesting that the average saving rate is still far from being impressive. This study investigates the determinants of private savings in Nigeria. Methodology. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model using annual time series data from 1981 to 2016 within the theoretical framework derived from the life-cycle hypothesis is employed in this study. The key variables under investigation are private savings, income, dependency ratio, real interest rate, social security payment, financial development and macroeconomic stability. The data used for analysis are sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2016) and World Development Indicator (2016). Findings. The results show that lifetime income and social security payment have significant positive relationship with private saving in the long-run, while adult dependency has significant negative relationship. In the short-run, adult dependency and social security payment have significant positive relationship with private savings. In addition, the result shows that 62% of deviation from the long-run equilibrium level of private savings is annually corrected for by the model estimated. Originality. This research investigates both the long-run and short-run effects of the various determinants of private savings in Nigeria. Thus, the study can serve as eye opener to the important variables that can improve the level of private savings in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to investigate the impact of coffee exports on long-term economic growth in an open economy for 32 countries exporting coffee over the period of 1994-2013. The study applied a dynamic panel Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) modelling approach with estimators. All variables involved in the specified model were found to be stationary of order I (1) at a first difference. The Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) long-run results suggest the presence of a significant positive effect of coffee exports on economic growth. The empirical findings of the study suggest policy implications, promoting the coffee sector to boost the countries' economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adverse impacts of climate change have emerged as one of the primary threats to human development; however, the climate change economic impact evaluation literature has mostly estimated effects under an assumption of full certainty. This article aims to estimate the long-run impact of climate change on household development resilience. To do so, we use the China Health and Nutrition Survey, which contains detailed longitudinal socioeconomic information from 1989 to 2015, and matches them to weather data. We find that climate change negatively impacts household development resilience. This negative impact stems from both a decline in upward mobility of households and an increase in downside risks. In other words, the rise in temperatures not only reduces the pace of household economic growth but also amplifies economic volatility, elevating consumption risk for households. The effects are driven by the decrease in agricultural production output and the risk of off-farm income. However, longer-run adaptation has offset 22.09% of the short-run effects of climate change on household development resilience. In contrast, climate adaptation mitigates household welfare loss to a greater extent through agricultural input adjustments and income diversification in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses developments in labour productivity over the past century, and examines the factors which explain variations in its pace of growth. Four main phases are distinguished, 1970-1913, 1913-1950, 1950-1970 and the 1970s. The major concern is to explain why the postwar record has been so brilliant by historical standards, and why performance has slackened in the 1970s. JEL: J24, O47

The paper analyses developments in labour productivity over the past century, and examines the factors which explain variations in its pace of growth. Four main phases are distinguished, 1970-1913, 1913-1950, 1950-1970 and the 1970s. The major concern is to explain why the postwar record has been so brilliant by historical standards, and why performance has slackened in the 1970s. JEL: J24, O47