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3. Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios

Author

Dekker, Mark M., Daioglou, Vassilis, Pietzcker, Robert, Rodrigues, Renato, Boer, Harmen-Sytze de, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Fotiou, Theofano, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Gusheva, Ema, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Kannavou, Maria, Krey, Volker, Lombardi, Francesco, Luderer, Gunnar, Pfenninger, Stefan, Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Zakeri, Behnam, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, Vuuren, Detlef van, Dekker, Mark M., Daioglou, Vassilis, Pietzcker, Robert, Rodrigues, Renato, Boer, Harmen-Sytze de, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Fotiou, Theofano, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Gusheva, Ema, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Kannavou, Maria, Krey, Volker, Lombardi, Francesco, Luderer, Gunnar, Pfenninger, Stefan, Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Zakeri, Behnam, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, and Vuuren, Detlef van

Abstract

Energy models are used to study emissions mitigation pathways, such as those compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These models vary in structure, objectives, parameterization and level of detail, yielding differences in the computed energy and climate policy scenarios. To study model differences, diagnostic indicators are common practice in many academic fields, for example, in the physical climate sciences. However, they have not yet been applied systematically in mitigation literature, beyond addressing individual model dimensions. Here we address this gap by quantifying energy model typology along five dimensions: responsiveness, mitigation strategies, energy supply, energy demand and mitigation costs and effort, each expressed through several diagnostic indicators. The framework is applied to a diagnostic experiment with eight energy models in which we explore ten scenarios focusing on Europe. Comparing indicators to the ensemble yields comprehensive ‘energy model fingerprints’, which describe systematic model behaviour and contextualize model differences for future multi-model comparison studies.

Published
2023

4. The mutual benefits of comparing energy system models and integrated assessment models

Author

Henke, Hauke, Dekker, Mark, Lombardi, Francesco, Pietzcker, Robert, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Zakeri, Behnam, Rodrigues, Renato, Sitarz, Joanna, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Tatarewicz, Igor, Fotiou, Theofano, Lewarski, Michał, Huppmann, Daniel, Kavvadias, Kostas, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, Henke, Hauke, Dekker, Mark, Lombardi, Francesco, Pietzcker, Robert, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Zakeri, Behnam, Rodrigues, Renato, Sitarz, Joanna, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Tatarewicz, Igor, Fotiou, Theofano, Lewarski, Michał, Huppmann, Daniel, Kavvadias, Kostas, Zwaan, Bob van der, and Usher, Will

Abstract

Background: The transition to a carbon neutral society such as that envisaged in the European Union Green Deal requires careful and comprehensive planning. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and energy system models (ESMs) are both commonly used for policy advice and in the process of policy design. In Europe, a vast landscape of these models has emerged and both kinds of models have been part of numerous model comparison and model linking exercises. However, IAMs and ESMs have rarely been compared or linked with one another. Methods: This study conducts an explorative comparison and identifies possible flows of information between 11 of the integrated assessment and energy system models in the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum. The study identifies and compares regional aggregations and commonly reported variables We define harmonised regions and a subset of shared result variables that enable the comparison of results across the models. Results: The results highlight similarities and differences on final electricity demand, electricity supply and hydrogen across three levels of aggregation. However, the differences between the regional aggregation of the models limit detailed analysis. Conclusions: This first-of-its-kind comparison and analysis of modelling results across model type boundaries provides modellers and policymakers with a better understanding of how to interpret both IAM and ESM results. It also highlights the need for community standards for region definitions and information about reported variables to facilitate future comparisons of this kind.

Published
2023

5. The mutual benefits of comparing energy system models and integrated assessment models

Author

Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Henke, Hauke, Dekker, Mark, Lombardi, Francesco, Pietzcker, Robert, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Zakeri, Behnam, Rodrigues, Renato, Sitarz, Joanna, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Tatarewicz, Igor, Fotiou, Theofano, Lewarski, Michał, Huppmann, Daniel, Kavvadias, Kostas, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Henke, Hauke, Dekker, Mark, Lombardi, Francesco, Pietzcker, Robert, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Zakeri, Behnam, Rodrigues, Renato, Sitarz, Joanna, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Tatarewicz, Igor, Fotiou, Theofano, Lewarski, Michał, Huppmann, Daniel, Kavvadias, Kostas, Zwaan, Bob van der, and Usher, Will

Published
2023

6. Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios

Author

Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Dekker, Mark M., Daioglou, Vassilis, Pietzcker, Robert, Rodrigues, Renato, Boer, Harmen-Sytze de, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Fotiou, Theofano, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Gusheva, Ema, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Kannavou, Maria, Krey, Volker, Lombardi, Francesco, Luderer, Gunnar, Pfenninger, Stefan, Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Zakeri, Behnam, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, Vuuren, Detlef van, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Dekker, Mark M., Daioglou, Vassilis, Pietzcker, Robert, Rodrigues, Renato, Boer, Harmen-Sytze de, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fattahi, Amir, Fotiou, Theofano, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Gusheva, Ema, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Kannavou, Maria, Krey, Volker, Lombardi, Francesco, Luderer, Gunnar, Pfenninger, Stefan, Tsiropoulos, Ioannis, Zakeri, Behnam, Zwaan, Bob van der, Usher, Will, and Vuuren, Detlef van

Published
2023

7. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Zakeri, Behnam, Environmental Sciences, S&C overig (HIMS, FNWI), and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Offset (computer science), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, CLIMATE TARGETS, TEMPERATURE OVERSHOOT, Natural resource economics, CLIMATE TARGETS, CLIMATE CHANGE STABILIZATION, TEMPERATURE OVERSHOOT, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Residual, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, CLIMATE CHANGE STABILIZATION, environmental social sciences, Taverne, 11. Sustainability, Co2 removal, Climate-change mitigation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global temperature, Limiting, Overshoot (population), Term (time), 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract

Current emissions scenarios include pathways that overshoot the temperature goals set out in the Paris Agreement and rely on future net negative emissions. Limiting overshoot would require near-term investment but would result in longer-term economic benefit. Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.

Published
2021

8. Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

Author

Bertram, Christoph, primary, Riahi, Keywan, additional, Hilaire, Jérôme, additional, Bosetti, Valentina, additional, Drouet, Laurent, additional, Fricko, Oliver, additional, Malik, Aman, additional, Nogueira, Larissa Pupo, additional, van der Zwaan, Bob, additional, van Ruijven, Bas, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef, additional, Weitzel, Matthias, additional, Longa, Francesco Dalla, additional, de Boer, Harmen-Sytze, additional, Emmerling, Johannes, additional, Fosse, Florian, additional, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, additional, Harmsen, Mathijs, additional, Keramidas, Kimon, additional, Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo, additional, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, Krey, Volker, additional, Paroussos, Leonidas, additional, Saygin, Deger, additional, Vrontisi, Zoi, additional, and Luderer, Gunnar, additional

Published
2021
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9. Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

Author

Bertram, Christoph, Riahi, Keywan, Hilaire, Jérôme, Bosetti, Valentina, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Malik, Aman, Nogueira, Larissa Pupo, Van Der Zwaan, Bob, Van Ruijven, Bas, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Weitzel, Matthias, Longa, Francesco Dalla, De Boer, Harmen Sytze, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Harmsen, Mathijs, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo, Kriegler, Elmar, Krey, Volker, Paroussos, Leonidas, Saygin, Deger, Vrontisi, Zoi, Luderer, Gunnar, Bertram, Christoph, Riahi, Keywan, Hilaire, Jérôme, Bosetti, Valentina, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Malik, Aman, Nogueira, Larissa Pupo, Van Der Zwaan, Bob, Van Ruijven, Bas, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Weitzel, Matthias, Longa, Francesco Dalla, De Boer, Harmen Sytze, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Harmsen, Mathijs, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo, Kriegler, Elmar, Krey, Volker, Paroussos, Leonidas, Saygin, Deger, Vrontisi, Zoi, and Luderer, Gunnar

Abstract

The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for 'making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions'. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil

Published
2021

10. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Zakeri, Behnam, Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Zakeri, Behnam

Published
2021

11. Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

Author

Environmental Sciences, Bertram, Christoph, Riahi, Keywan, Hilaire, Jérôme, Bosetti, Valentina, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Malik, Aman, Nogueira, Larissa Pupo, Van Der Zwaan, Bob, Van Ruijven, Bas, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Weitzel, Matthias, Longa, Francesco Dalla, De Boer, Harmen Sytze, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Harmsen, Mathijs, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo, Kriegler, Elmar, Krey, Volker, Paroussos, Leonidas, Saygin, Deger, Vrontisi, Zoi, Luderer, Gunnar, Environmental Sciences, Bertram, Christoph, Riahi, Keywan, Hilaire, Jérôme, Bosetti, Valentina, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Malik, Aman, Nogueira, Larissa Pupo, Van Der Zwaan, Bob, Van Ruijven, Bas, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Weitzel, Matthias, Longa, Francesco Dalla, De Boer, Harmen Sytze, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Harmsen, Mathijs, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo, Kriegler, Elmar, Krey, Volker, Paroussos, Leonidas, Saygin, Deger, Vrontisi, Zoi, and Luderer, Gunnar

Published
2021

12. Summary of case studies for cooperation mechanisms:Cost-Efficient and Sustainable Deployment of Renewable Energy Sources towards the 20% Target by 2020, and beyond

Author

Longa, Francesco Dalla, Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik, Hansen, Lise-Lotte Pade, Tantareanu, Cristian, Caldes-Gomez, Natalia, and Santamaria-Belda, Marta

Abstract

This document is a summary report highlighting the main aspect analyzed in the RES4LESS case studies.The document starts with an introductory chapter where the background that led to the selection of the case studies is outlined. In the following three chapters the case studies are presented, highlighting the most relevant results. A brief chapter concludes the document, giving an outlook on the follow-up activities of the RES4LESS project.This summary is intended not only as an introduction to the RES4LESS cases studies, but also as a guideline to read and interpret the in-depth analysis carried out in the final documents that describe the case studies in detail. These documents will be published in September 2012 on the RES4LESS website, www.res4less.eu.

Published
2012

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