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Conditions in the ionosphere have become increasingly important to forecast, since more and more spaceborne and ground-based technological systems rely on ionospheric weather. Here we explore the feasibility of ionospheric forecasts with the current generation of physics-based models. In particular, we focus on total electron content (TEC) predictions using the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM). Simulations are configured in a forecast mode and performed for four typical high-speed-stream events during 2007–2012. The simulated TECs are quantified through a metric, which divides the globe into a number of local regions and robustly differentiates between quiet and disturbed periods. Proposed forecast products are hourly global maps color-coded by the TEC disturbance level of each local region. To assess the forecasts, we compare the simulated TEC disturbances with global TEC maps derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite observations. The forecast performance is found to be merely acceptable, with a large number of regions where the observed variations are not captured by the simulations. Examples of model-data agreements and disagreements are investigated in detail, aiming to understand the model behavior and improve future forecasts. For one event, we identify two adjacent regions with similar TEC observations but significant differences in how local chemistry versus plasma transport contribute to electron density changes in the simulation. Suggestions for further analysis are described.

The statistical characterization of the relationship between thermosphere-ionosphere anomalies and space weather events, also referred to as space weather anomalies, such as solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and geomagnetic storms, is a crucial component in the development of a forecast capability for thermosphere-ionosphere disturbances. This manuscript presents a systematic statistical approach for analyzing historical ionosphere and space weather observations to derive a quantitative characterization of the relationships between the thermosphere-ionosphere anomalies and space weather anomalies. Based on 2 years of historical data, our analysis reveals the complex nature of the relationship between space weather disturbances and ionospheric responses.

Interest in forecasting space weather in the thermosphere and ionosphere (T-I) led to a community workshop held at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in October, 2014. The workshop focus was “Scientific Challenges in Thermosphere-Ionosphere Forecasting” to emphasize that forecasting presumes a sufficiently advanced state of scientific knowledge, yet one that is still evolving. The purpose of the workshop, and this topical issue that arose from the workshop, was to discuss research frontiers that will lead to improved space weather forecasts. Three areas are discussed in some detail in this paper: (1) the role of lower atmosphere forcing in the response of the T-I to geomagnetic disturbances; (2) the significant deposition of energy at polar latitudes during geomagnetic disturbances; and (3) recent developments in understanding the propagation of coronal mass ejections through the heliosphere and prospects for forecasting the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) using observations at the Lagrangian L5 point. We describe other research presented at the workshop that appears in the topical issue. The possibility of establishing a “positive feedback loop” where improved scientific knowledge leads to improved forecasts is described (Siscoe 2006, Space Weather, 4, S01003; Mannucci 2012, Space Weather, 10, S07003).

We analyze the energy budget of the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) system during two High-Speed Streams (HSSs) on 22–31 January, 2007 (in the descending phase of solar cycle 23) and 25 April–2 May, 2011 (in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24) to understand typical features, similarities, and differences in magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) coupling during HSS geomagnetic activity. We focus on the solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere (by using coupling functions) and energy partitioning within the IT system during these intervals. The Joule heating is estimated empirically. Hemispheric power is estimated based on satellite measurements. We utilize observations from TIMED/SABER (Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) to estimate nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) cooling emission fluxes. We perform a detailed modeling study of these two similar HSS events with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) and different external driving inputs to understand the IT response and to address how well the model reproduces the energy transport. GITM is run in a mode with forecastable inputs. It is shown that the model captures the main features of the energy coupling, but underestimates NO cooling and auroral heating in high latitudes. Lower thermospheric forcing at 100 km altitude is important for correct energy balance of the IT system. We discuss challenges for a physics-based general forecasting approach in modeling the energy budget of moderate IT storms caused by HSSs.

This overview paper presents/discusses the major solar, interplanetary, magnetospheric, and ionospheric features of the CAWSES II interval of study: 7–17 March 2012. Magnetic storms occurred on 7, 9, 12, and 15 March with peak SYM-H intensities of −98 nT, −148 nT, −75 nT (pressure corrected), and −79 nT, respectively. These are called the S1, S2, S3, and S4 events. Although three of the storm main phases (S1, S3, and S4) were caused by IMF Bsouth sheath fields and the S2 event was associated with a magnetic cloud (MC), the detailed scenario for all four storms were different. Two interplanetary features with unusually high temperatures and intense and quiet magnetic fields were identified located antisunward of the MCs (S2 and S3). These features are signatures of either coronal loops or coronal sheaths. A high speed stream (HSS) followed the S4 event where the presumably southward IMF Bz components of the Alfvén waves extended the storm “recovery phase” by several days. The ICME-associated shocks were particularly intense. The fast forward shock for the S2 event had a magnetosonic Mach number of ~9.4, the largest in recorded history. All of the shocks associated with the ICMEs created sudden impulses (SI+s) at Earth. The shocks preceding the S2 and S3 magnetic storms caused unusually high SI+ intensities of ~60 and 68 nT, respectively. Many further studies on various facets of this active interval are suggested for CAWSES II researchers and other interested parties.

It is shown that during the 30 October 2003 superstorm, dayside O+ ions were uplifted to DMSP altitudes (~850 km). Peak densities were ~9 × 105 cm−3 during the magnetic storm main phase (peak Dst = −390 nT). By comparison the 1–2 September 1859 Carrington magnetic storm (peak Dst estimated at −1760 nT) was considerably stronger. We investigate the impact of this storm on the low- to mid-latitude ionosphere using a modified version of the NRL SAMI2 ionospheric code. It is found that the equatorial region (LAT = 0° ± 15°) is swept free of plasma within 15 min (or less) of storm onset. The plasma is swept to higher altitudes and higher latitudes due to E × B convection associated with the prompt penetration electric field. Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) O+ density enhancements are found to be located within the broad range of latitudes ~ ± (25°–40°) at ~500–900 km altitudes. Densities within these peaks are ~6 × 106 oxygen ions-cm−3 at ~700 km altitude, approximately +600% quiet time values. The oxygen ions at the top portions (850–1000 km) of uplifted EIAs will cause strong low-altitude satellite drag. Calculations are currently being performed on possible uplift of oxygen neutrals by ion-neutral coupling to understand if there might be further significant satellite drag forces present.

Launched in 2006, the Formosa Satellite Mission 3-Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) was the first constellation of microsatellites carrying global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) receivers. Radio occultation is an active remote sensing technique that provides valuable information on the vertical variations of electron density in the ionosphere, and temperature, pressure, and water vapor in the stratosphere and troposphere. COSMIC has demonstrated the great value of RO data in ionosphere, climate, and meteorological research and operational weather forecasting. However, there are still challenges using RO data, particularly in the moist lower troposphere and upper stratosphere. A COSMIC follow-on constellation, COSMIC-2, was launched into equatorial orbit in 2019. With increased signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) from improved receivers and digital beam steering antennas, COSMIC-2 will produce at least 5,000 high-quality RO profiles daily in the tropics and subtropics. In this paper, we summarize 1) recent (since 2011 when the last review was published) contributions of COSMIC and other RO observations to weather, climate, and space weather science; 2) the remaining challenges in RO applications; and 3) potential contributions to research and operations of COSMIC-2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric climate monitoring requires observations of high-quality conforming to the criteria of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Radio occultation (RO) data based on Global Positioning System (GPS) signals are available since 2001 from several satellite missions with global coverage, high accuracy, and high vertical resolution in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. We assess the consistency and long-term stability of multi-satellite RO observations for use as climate data records. As a measure of long-term stability, we quantify the structural uncertainty of RO data products arising from different processing schemes. We analyze atmospheric variables from bending angle to temperature for four RO missions, CHAMP, Formosat-3/COSMIC, GRACE, and Metop, provided by five data centers. The comparisons are based on profile-to-profile differences, aggregated to monthly means. Structural uncertainty in trends is found lowest from 8 km to 25 km altitude globally for all inspected RO variables and missions. For temperature, it is < 0.05 K per decade in the global mean and < 0.1 K per decade at all latitudes. Above 25 km, the uncertainty increases for CHAMP while data from the other missions are based on advanced receivers and are usable to higher altitudes for climate trend studies: dry temperature to 35 km, refractivity to 40 km, and bending angle to 50 km. Larger differences in RO data at high altitudes and latitudes are mainly due to different implementation choices in the retrievals. The intercomparison helped to further enhance the maturity of the RO record and confirms the climate quality of multi-satellite RO observations towards establishing a GCOS climate data record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct a 9-year data record (2007-2015) of the tropospheric specific humidity (SH) using Global Positioning System radio occultation (GPS RO) observations from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission. This record covers the ±40° latitude belt and includes estimates of the zonally averaged monthly mean SH from 700 hPa up to 400 hPa. It includes three major climate zones: a) the deep tropics (±15°), b) the trade winds belts (±15-30°), and c) the subtropics (±30-40°). Our objective is to compare the RO observations with the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) to examine the consistency among the data sets. We present RO SHs from both JPL and UCAR processing centers to provide an estimate of the structural uncertainty of the RO SH products. The results show that the RO observations capture the seasonal and interannual SH variability as all other data sets. On average, the JPL-RO SH agrees with both reanalyses to within 10 %, is overall larger than all data sets, having maximum differences with AIRS by ~ 10-30 %, and is almost twice as wet as all other data sets in the middle-to-upper troposphere at the subtropics. The UCAR-RO SH also agrees with both reanalyses and AIRS, but is systematically drier than all other data sets. Provided the estimated differences between the RO observations and the rest of the data sets, together with the retrieval uncertainty of the SH products from all data sets, we conclude that RO observations are a valuable independent observing system, which could augment independent reanalyses and satellite platforms. We anticipate that the COSMIC-2 mission will increase the observational sampling; thus, improving the coverage and quality of the observed SH climatology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]