12 results on '"Mortimore, Roger"'
Search Results
2. Examining the academic/commercial divide in marketing research
- Author
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Baines, Paul R., Brennan, Ross, Gill, Mark, and Mortimore, Roger
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. BPC/MRS enquiry into election polling 2015: Ipsos MORI response and perspective.
- Author
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Mortimore, Roger, Baines, Paul, Worcester, Robert, and Gill, Mark
- Subjects
ELECTIONS ,BRITISH politics & government, 2007- ,PUBLIC opinion polls ,SOCIAL surveys ,CONSUMER behavior ,MARKET surveys - Abstract
The article explores the unsatisfactory results of pre-election opinion polling in the 2015 British general election and the British Polling Council/Market Research Society (BPC/MRS) enquiry report into polling by P. Sturgis and colleagues, providing a response from Ipsos MORI and associated researchers at King's College London and Cranfield Universities. Topics discussed include examination on the accuracy of the forecasts drawn based upon pre-election opinion polls at the 2015 general election, and difference between the 2010 general election and the 2015 election.
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Opinion Polls and Populism in Modern British Elections.
- Author
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Mortimore, Roger
- Subjects
PUBLIC opinion polls ,POLITICAL attitudes ,ELECTIONS ,BREXIT Referendum, 2016 ,POPULISM ,VOTING - Abstract
Opinion polls play a central role in modern British elections, being prominent in the media reporting of the campaign, increasingly so in recent years. Many of the voters seem to be interested in the polls, but whether they have a significant impact on voting behavior remains unresolved. Despite past suggestions that polls are inherently populist, they seem to have played only a limited role in the U.K.'s vote to leave the European Union ("Brexit"). Support for Brexit was rooted in existing political attitudes and brought to a peak by populistic exploitation of discontent with the establishment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
5. Asymmetry in leader image effects and the implications for leadership positioning in the 2010 British general election.
- Author
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Mortimore, Roger, Baines, Paul, Crawford, Ian, Worcester, Robert, and Zelin, Andrew
- Subjects
ELECTIONS ,POLITICAL campaigns ,POLITICAL leadership ,VOTERS ,POLITICIANS ,POLITICAL parties ,LOGISTIC regression analysis - Abstract
Using national survey data on voters' perceptions of party leaders during the 2010 British general election campaign, we use logistic regression analysis to explore the association between specific image attributes and overall satisfaction for each leader. We find attribute-satisfaction relationships differ in some respects between the three main party leaders, demonstrating that leader image effects are not symmetrical across leaders. We find evidence that negative perceptions have more powerful effects on satisfaction than positive ones, implying that parties should seek to determine a leader's image attribute perceptions measured against the public's expectations of them on the same dimensions. The positions that campaigners ought then to choose are those that will have the most beneficial effect in encouraging voting behaviour for each particular leader or discouraging voting behaviour for an opponent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. BPC/MRS Enquiry into Election Polling 2015:Ipsos MORI Response and Perspective
- Author
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Mortimore, Roger Geoffrey Michael, Baines, Paul, Worcester, Robert M, and Gill, Mark
- Abstract
This Forum article considers the unsatisfactory results of pre-election opinion polling in the 2015 British general election and the BPC/MRS enquiry report into polling by Sturgis et al., providing a response from Ipsos MORI and associated researchers at King's College London and Cranfield Universities. Whilst Sturgis et al. (2016) consider how to perfect opinion poll forecasting, why the 2015 prediction was inaccurate when the same methodology returned satisfactory results in 2005 and 2010 at Ipsos MORI is considered here instead. We agree with Sturgis et al. that the inaccurate results were not due to late swing or the ‘shy Tory’ problem and with Taylor (2016) that the underlying problem is a response rate bias. However, Sturgis et al. critique pollsters in their report for systematically under-representing Conservative voters but the Ipsos MORI final poll had too many Conservatives, too many Labour voters and not enough non-voters. The Sturgis et al. conclusion is convincing that the politically disengaged were under-represented due to quotas and weighting mechanisms designed to correct for response bias. Nevertheless, for Ipsos MORI, this explanation does not account for why the polling methodology was inaccurate in 2015 when it had performed accurately in 2005 and 2010. For Ipsos MORI, a more likely explanation is that Labour voters in 2015 became more prone to exaggerate their voting likelihood. We offer various postulations on why this might have been so, concluding that to account for the inaccuracy requires a two-fold response, to improve: (i) sample representativeness and (ii) the projection of voting behaviour from the data. Unfortunately, the BPC/MRS report offers no blueprint for how to solve the problem of sampling the politically disengaged. Whilst Ipsos MORI have redesigned their quotas to take account of education levels, to represent those better with no formal educational qualifications and reduce overrepresentation of graduates, polling in the referendum on EU membership suggests that the problem of drawing a representative sample has been solved but difficulties in how best to allow for turnout persist.
- Published
- 2017
7. Explaining Labour’s landslide
- Author
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Worcester, Robert and Mortimore, Roger
- Subjects
JN Political institutions (Europe) - Abstract
Using new polling evidence, veteran pollster Robert Worcester (MORI) explains why Labour won such a massive landslide in the 1997 election and why the Conservatives suffered their worst ever electoral drubbing. A key adviser to Labour for many years, Worcester provides the ultimate analysis of Labour's victory.
- Published
- 1999
8. Market segmentation and product differentiation in political campaigns: a technical feature perspective
- Author
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Baines, Paul R., Worcester, Robert M., Jarrett, David, Mortimore, Roger, Baines, Paul R., Worcester, Robert M., Jarrett, David, and Mortimore, Roger
- Abstract
The perceived importance of five technical service qualities (Gronroos 1984) or features (i.e. national and local policies, leaders, values and candidates), and voters’ ratings of the Labour and Conservative Parties’ competence on each of these parameters, were investigated during the 2001 British General Election using an a priori segmentation method and the classification tree statistical technique for data analysis. Voter ratings of the technical service features were found to be indicators of intention to vote. A product differentiation approach is most likely to influence voting intention, because the technical service features are more readily manipulated through marketing programmes than demographic and customer characteristics (Bucklin and Gupta 1992). Ratings of technical service features are stronger indicators of voting intention than voter demographics and characteristics. A product differentiation approach, based around technical service features, would be the most effective focus for strategy development in future political marketing campaigns.
- Published
- 2003
9. Tactical voting can still occur under the alternative vote, and it may lead to unexpected outcomes
- Author
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Mortimore, Roger and Mortimore, Roger
- Abstract
Next spring UK voters will get the chance to introduce the Alternative Vote system for Westminster elections. A commonly repeated claim is that the system would do away with the tactical voting that many voters resort to under the current First Past the Post system. Yet Roger Mortimore demonstrates that this received wisdom is not true. Instead new forms of tactical voting could open up under AV.
10. Corporate planning in local government: Some measurement problems
- Author
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Mortimore, Roger, primary
- Published
- 1973
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. Public opinion and attitudes towards European integration in Great Britain, 1973-2016
- Author
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Smedley, Stuart, Kandiah, Michael David, and Mortimore, Roger Geoffrey Michael
- Abstract
This thesis explores British public opinion towards European integration between the United Kingdom's accession to the European Community (EC) on 1 January 1973 and the referendum vote to leave the European Union (EU) on 23 June 2016. Primarily analysing survey data collected on Eurobarometer, while also examining that from British Social Attitudes and other opinion poll sources, it first assesses three general measures of British public opinion towards European integration: Europe's salience, attitudes towards EC/EU membership and European identity. Subsequent chapters then analyse public opinion towards specific developments in the integration process: deeper and flexible integration; economic and monetary union (EMU); the Single Market, social policy integration and free movement of people; EC/EU enlargement; and foreign and defence policy cooperation. The thesis argues that British public opinion towards these various developments in European integration was not volatile - challenging a widely held view in the existing historical literature; that public scepticism was to a significant extent benign; and that pro-integration sentiment was rooted in pragmatism. The thesis also reveals how societal divides over various aspects of the European integration project developed. Additionally, by contrasting public opinion with government and party policies, it identifies the significant cleavages between the public's views and the preferences of the British government and Conservative, Labour and Liberal parties. By going beyond the question of EC/EU membership, the project thus provides insight into what the British public felt about what the EC/EU did and whether they backed the form of European integration supported by the British political class in the 43-year period examined.
- Published
- 2021
12. The Conservative Party in the European Parliament, 1973-1992
- Author
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Jowiya, Khurram, Mortimore, Roger Geoffrey Michael, and Blick, Andrew
- Subjects
324.24104 - Abstract
This thesis explores the relationship between the British Conservative Party and the European Parliament. It will address three interlocking matters. First, it will examine the conduct of Conservative Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in the European Parliament. It will show the difficulties they faced in their dealings with the largest centre-right grouping in the European Parliament, the European People’s Party (EPP). The thesis will contest the limited existing literature on Conservative MEPs which suggests that the two groupings struggled to work together because of differing ideological perspectives and religious orientations. It will instead argue that lukewarm relations were created because of differing opinions on key issues such as the European Parliament presidency election in 1982, and poor personal relationships between the two sets of MEPs. A decisive stage in the development of the relationship between the two came in 1992 when the British Conservative MEPs ceased in their efforts to operate their own centre-right grouping and joined the EPP. However, it will be shown that the merger between the two groupings was only achievable because of very fortuitous circumstances, indicating that the EPP was not a natural fit for the British Conservative MEPs. Secondly, the thesis will examine the relationship between Conservative MEPs and the domestic British Conservative Party, including its leadership and its Westminster representatives. MPs at Westminster consistently feared the possibility of MEPs undermining their role. Yet the thesis will argue that MEPs generally maintained relations with the Conservative leadership in this period, during the tenures of Edward Heath, Margaret Thatcher and John Major. Thatcher, particularly, was pragmatic and willing to work with the MEPs in key areas such as her efforts to achieve a partial rebate of the UK financial contribution to the Community. Thatcher enjoyed collaborative working relationships with certain MEPs throughout her time as Conservative leader. At times during this period, some British Conservative MEPs did perceive a division between themselves and the British Conservative leadership and became disillusioned when they felt they were unable to work with the Conservative Party leadership or government departments when the party was in office at UK level. Nonetheless, as will be seen, Thatcher and Conservative MEPs interacted often at least until 1988 when she began to shift towards an increasingly Eurosceptic orientation. A consideration of Thatcher’s engagement with the European Parliament and the Conservative cohort within it adds an important new perspective to analysis of her overall attitude towards the Community. Lastly, the thesis will examine the development of the European Parliament as an institution and how the Conservatives as a whole reacted to these changes. Initially, the European Parliament had limited powers over the Community budget. By 1992 the European Parliament had gained more influence, achieving broad legislative authority despite scepticism about this development from within some member states (including Germany, France and the UK) who felt the European Parliament undermined national parliaments. Notwithstanding reservations among some domestic players in the UK regarding the role of the European Parliament, British Conservative MEPs throughout this period wanted to increase the credibility of the institution of which they were members. They were successful in this objective, contributing greatly to the European Parliament’s development. For instance, British Conservative MEPs were influential in shaping the rules of the European Parliament, which developed in ways that optimised its abilities to delay amendments, transactions and even the approval of the Community budget. The thesis corrects shortcomings in the existing literature, which fails fully to convey the consistently pro-integration views held by many Conservative Party MEPs during the period under consideration, and which does not properly recognise the contributions made by the MEPs to the European Parliament which this thesis examines.
- Published
- 2020
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