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Since the arrival of clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza A(H5N1) in North America in late 2021, frequent mammal spillover events have occurred in a diverse range of species, including 1 human [...]

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A/H5N1 viruses (lineage 2.3.4.4b) are rapidly invading the Americas, threatening wildlife, poultry, and potentially evolving into the next global pandemic. In November 2022 HPAI arrived in Peru, triggering massive pelican and sea lion die-offs. We report genomic characterization of HPAI/H5N1 in five species of marine mammals and seabirds (dolphins, sea lions, sanderlings, pelicans and cormorants). Peruvian viruses belong to lineage 2.3.4.4b, but they are 4:4 reassortants where 4 genomic segments (PA, HA, NA and MP) position within the Eurasian lineage that initially entered North America from Eurasia, while the other 4 genomic segments (PB2, PB1, NP and NS) position within the American lineage (clade C) that circulated in North America. These viruses are rapidly accruing mutations, including mutations of concern, that warrant further examination and highlight an urgent need for active local surveillance to manage outbreaks and limit spillover into other species, including humans.

Computational analyses of pathogen genomes are increasingly used to unravel the dispersal history and transmission dynamics of epidemics. Here, we show how to go beyond historical reconstructions and use spatially-explicit phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to formally test epidemiological hypotheses. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the West Nile virus (WNV) spread in North America that has substantially impacted public, veterinary, and wildlife health. We apply an analytical workflow to a comprehensive WNV genome collection to test the impact of environmental factors on the dispersal of viral lineages and on viral population genetic diversity through time. We find that WNV lineages tend to disperse faster in areas with higher temperatures and we identify temporal variation in temperature as a main predictor of viral genetic diversity through time. By contrasting inference with simulation, we find no evidence for viral lineages to preferentially circulate within the same migratory bird flyway, suggesting a substantial role for non-migratory birds or mosquito dispersal along the longitudinal gradient.

Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critical for public health responses and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here we elucidate when, where, and how the earliest sustained severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission networks became established in Europe and North America. Our results suggest that rapid early interventions successfully prevented early introductions of the virus from taking hold in Germany and the United States. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington state, United States, founded the earliest sustained European and North America transmission networks. Our analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of public health measures in preventing onward transmission and show that intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks from becoming established in these regions.

Spatiotemporal bias in genome sampling can severely confound discrete trait phylogeographic inference. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the availability of unprecedented numbers of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Here, we present an approach to integrate individual travel history data in Bayesian phylogeographic inference and apply it to the early spread of SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrate that including travel history data yields i) more realistic hypotheses of virus spread and ii) higher posterior predictive accuracy compared to including only sampling location. We further explore methods to ameliorate the impact of sampling bias by augmenting the phylogeographic analysis with lineages from undersampled locations. Our reconstructions reinforce specific transmission hypotheses suggested by the inclusion of travel history data, but also suggest alternative routes of virus migration that are plausible within the epidemiological context but are not apparent with current sampling efforts.

The complex and unresolved evolutionary origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic exposed major gaps in our knowledge of the global spatial ecology and evolution of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs). Here we undertake an expansive phylogenetic analysis of swIAV sequence data and demonstrate that the global live swine trade strongly predicts the spatial dissemination of swIAVs, with Europe and North America acting as sources of viruses in Asian countries. In contrast, China has the world's largest swine population but is not a major exporter of live swine, and is not an important source of swIAVs in neighbouring Asian countries or globally. A meta-population simulation model incorporating trade data predicts that the global ecology of swIAVs is more complex than previously thought, and the United States and China's large swine populations are unlikely to be representative of swIAV diversity in their respective geographic regions, requiring independent surveillance efforts throughout Latin America and Asia.

Genetically diverse influenza A viruses (IAV) circulate in swine globally, complicating efforts to control the virus and increasing the threat that a novel virus will emerge in pigs with the [...]

The emergence and rapid global spread of the swine-origin H1N1/09 pandemic influenza A virus in humans underscores the importance of swine populations as reservoirs for genetically diverse influenza viruses with the potential to infect humans. However, despite their significance for animal and human health, relatively little is known about the phylogeography of swine influenza viruses in the United States. This study utilizes an expansive data set of hemagglutinin (HA1) sequences (n = 1516) from swine influenza viruses collected in North America during the period 2003-2010. With these data we investigate the spatial dissemination of a novel influenza virus of the H1 subtype that was introduced into the North American swine population via two separate human-to-swine transmission events around 2003. Bayesian phylogeographic analysis reveals that the spatial dissemination of this influenza virus in the US swine population follows long-distance swine movements from the Southern US to the Midwest, a corn-rich commercial center that imports millions of swine annually. Hence, multiple genetically diverse influenza viruses are introduced and co-circulate in the Midwest, providing the opportunity for genomic reassortment. Overall, the Midwest serves primarily as an ecological sink for swine influenza in the US, with sources of virus genetic diversity instead located in the Southeast (mainly North Carolina) and South-central (mainly Oklahoma) regions. Understanding the importance of long-distance pig transportation in the evolution and spatial dissemination of the influenza virus in swine may inform future strategies for the surveillance and control of influenza, and perhaps other swine pathogens.

Influenza A viruses circulating in swine (swIAVs) are of major economic concern for the swine industry and a pandemic threat for humans. The H1N1 influenza pandemic of 2009 was associated [...]

Worldwide, influenza virus causes substantial illness and death and considerable public health costs (1). Like other countries, Peru experiences a significant number of influenza cases (2,3). The epidemiology of influenza [...]

Since the first isolation in 1963 of an avian-origin influenza A(H3N8) virus from horses (1), subtype H3N8 influenza viruses have continued to circulate panzooti cally among horses, causing severe outbreaks [...]

Background: It is often assumed that local sexual networks play a dominant role in HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of this study was to determine the extent to which continued HIV transmission in rural communities--home to two- thirds of the African population--is driven by intra-community sexual networks versus viral introductions from outside of communities. Methods and Findings: We analyzed the spatial dynamics of HIV transmission in rural Rakai District, Uganda, using data from a cohort of 14,594 individuals within 46 communities. We applied spatial clustering statistics, viral phylogenetics, and probabilistic transmission models to quantify the relative contribution of viral introductions into communities versus community- and household-based transmission to HIV incidence. Individuals living in households with HIV-incident (n = 189) or HIV-prevalent (n = 1,597) persons were 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7-3.7) times more likely to be HIV infected themselves compared to the population in general, but spatial clustering outside of households was relatively weak and was confined to distances < 500 m. Phylogenetic analyses of gag and env genes suggest that chains of transmission frequently cross community boundaries. A total of 95 phylogenetic clusters were identified, of which 44% (42/95) were two individuals sharing a household. Among the remaining clusters, 72% (38/53) crossed community boundaries. Using the locations of self-reported sexual partners, we estimate that 39% (95% CI: 34%-42%) of new viral transmissions occur within stable household partnerships, and that among those infected by extra-household sexual partners, 62% (95% CI: 55%-70%) are infected by sexual partners from outside their community. These results rely on the representativeness of the sample and the quality of self-reported partnership data and may not reflect HIV transmission patterns outside of Rakai. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that HIV introductions into communities are common and account for a significant proportion of new HIV infections acquired outside of households in rural Uganda, though the extent to which this is true elsewhere in Africa remains unknown. Our results also suggest that HIV prevention efforts should be implemented at spatial scales broader than the community and should target key populations likely responsible for introductions into communities. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary., Introduction Effective prevention and control of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) builds upon an understanding of the dynamics that sustain viral transmission within sexual networks [1,2]. These networks are comprised [...]