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This study complements the extant literature by assessing how the rule of law and political stability modulate tourism development dynamics (i.e. tourism receipts and tourism expenditure) to affect economic development in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The study focuses on 47 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with data for the period 2002 to 2018 and the empirical evidence is based on the Generalized Method of Moments. The study finds that: (i) the rule of law modulates both tourism receipts and tourism expenditure for overall positive effects on economic development and (ii) political stability modulates tourism receipts for an overall positive impact on economic development. Policy implications are discussed.

This study examines how the association between terrorism and capital flight affects the process of industrialisationin 36 African countries. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and Quantile Regressions (QR). GMM-oriented findings show that capital flight interacts with terrorism to negatively affect industrialisation in 'domestic terrorism'- and 'total terrorism'-oriented regressions. With QR approach, the GMM results are confirmed exclusively in the 25th and 50th quantiles, in regressions pertaining to domestic terrorism, unclear terrorism and total terrorism. It follows that the negative effect from the investigated interaction is driven by bottom quantiles of the industrialisation distribution. This confirms existing literature that developed countries are more likely to limit the negative externalities from terrorism compared to their developing counterparts. Hence, the negative consequence of the association between terrorism and capital flight on industrialisation is a decreasing function of industrialisation.

This study examines linkages between political stability and trade openness dynamics in a panel of 44 countries in SSA from 1996 to 2016. The empirical evidence is based on the generalized method of moments. From the findings, the negative relationship between political stability and merchandise trade is not significant while the negative relationship between political stability and trade openness (exports plus imports) is significant. Hence, the findings do not validate the tested hypothesis that political stability/no violence increases trade in the sub-region. The perspective that some forms of political stability can slow down and prevent international trade is consistent with Oslon in Rise and Decline of Nations (RADON) and recent contributions to the economic development literature which have shown that not all forms of political stability are development friendly because much depends on the extent to which stability translates into, inter alia, good governance. The principal policy implication is that standards of political governance need to be boosted in order to improve the anticipated effects of political stability on trade, especially in the light of the ambitious African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Other policy implications are discussed.

This study assesses how globalization modulates the effect of governance on CO2 emissions in sub-Saharan African countries. The empirical evidence is based on Generalized Method of Moments. The minimum level (or negative threshold) of FDI required for it to interact with political stability and contribute towards the green economy is 45% of GDP, while 90% of GDP is the maximum level (or positive threshold) required for trade to complement "voice & accountability" in mitigating CO2 emissions. 76 % of GDP and 80 % of GDP are respectively negative trade thresholds for government effectiveness and economic governance. The corresponding negative trade thresholds for the rule of law, corruption-control and institutional governance are respectively, 230% of GDP, 63.5% of GDP and 106.5% of GDP. Actionable openness policy thresholds are provided to inform policy makers on how governance interacts with globalization to promote the green economy.

This study has: (i) analysed the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, (ii) evaluated the effectiveness and relevance of different measures against the pandemic and (iii) examined nexuses between the corresponding measures and economic outcomes. The study uses a sample of 186 countries divided into four main regions, notably: Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, Europe, Africa and America. 34 preventing and mitigating measures against the Covid19 pandemic are classified into five main categories: lockdown, movement restrictions, governance and economic, social distancing, and public health measures. The empirical evidence is based on comparative difference in means tests and correlation analyses. The findings show how the effectiveness and consequences of the Covid-19 measures are different across regions. In adopting the relevant policies to fight the ongoing pandemic, the comparative insights from the findings in the study are worthwhile. Inter alia: (i) from a holistic perspective, only European countries have favourably benefited from the Covid-19 measures; (ii) lockdown measures at the global level have not been significant in reducing the pandemic; (iii) the restriction of movement measure has been relevant in curbing the spread in the American continent; (iv) social distancing has been productive in Europe and counterproductive in Africa; (v) governance and economic measures have exclusively been relevant in Europe and (vi) overall public health measures have not had the desired outcomes in flattening the infection curve probably because most of the underlying measures are awareness decisions or oriented toward people already infected.

This study investigates the simultaneous openness hypothesis by assessing the importance of trade openness in modulating the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, real GDP and GDP per capita. The focus of the study is on 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period spanning from 1980 to 2014. First, trade imports modulate FDI to induce net positive effects on GDP growth and GDP per capita. Second, trade exports moderate FDI to generate overall positive impacts on GDP growth, real GDP and GDP per capita. Implications of the study are discussed, inter alia: (i) both FDI and trade infrastructures are necessary for FDI-focused measures to engender positive economic development outcomes in host communities and countries. (ii) Macroeconomic conditions that are relevant for promoting economic development are necessary for the interactions between trade openness and FDI to generate favorable outcomes in terms of GDP growth, real GDP and GDP per capita.

The study complements the extant literature by constructing Covid-19 economic vulnerability and resilience indexes using a global sample of 150 countries which are categorized into four principal regions, namely: Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, America and Europe. Seven variables are used for the vulnerability index and nine for the resilience index. Both regions and sampled countries are classified in terms of the two proposed and computed indexes. The classification of countries is also provided in terms of four scenarios pertaining to vulnerability and resilience characteristics, notably: low vulnerability-low resilience, high vulnerability-low resilience, high vulnerability-high resilience and low vulnerability-high resilience to respectively illustrate, sensitive, severe, asymptomatic and best cases. The findings are relevant to policy makers especially as it pertains to decision making in resources allocation in the fight against the global pandemic.

The purpose of this study is to understand how countries have leveraged on their economic resilience to fight the Covid-19 pandemic. The focus is on a global sample of 150 countries divided into four main regions, namely: Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, America and Europe. The study develops a health vulnerability index (HVI) and leverages on an existing economic resilience index (ERI) to provide four main scenarios from which to understand the problem statement, namely: 'low HVI-low ERI', 'high HVI-low ERI', 'high HVI-high ERI' and 'low HVI-high ERI' quadrants. It is assumed that countries that have robustly fought the pandemic are those in the 'low HVI-high ERI' quadrant and to a less extent, countries in the 'low HVI-low ERI' quadrant. Most European countries, one African country (i.e. Rwanda), four Asian countries (Japan, China, South Korea and Thailand) and six American countries (USA, Canada, Uruguay, Panama, Argentina and Costa Rica) are apparent in the ideal quadrant.

The study extends the debate on finance versus institutions and measurement of property rights institutions. We assess the relationships between various components of property rights institutions and private investment, notably: political, economic and institutional governances. Comparative concurrent relationships of financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size are also investigated. The findings provide support for the quality of institutions as a better positive correlate of private investment than financial intermediary development. The interaction of finance and governance is not significant in potentially promoting private investment, perhaps due to substantially documented surplus liquidity issues in African financial institutions. The empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries for the period 1996-2010. Policy measures are discussed for reducing financial deposits, increasing financial activity and hence, improving financial efficiency.

This study assesses the role of income levels (low and middle) in modulating governance (political and economic) to influence inclusive human development. The empirical evidence is based on interactive quantile regressions and forty-nine countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2000-2002.The following main findings are established. First, low income modulates governance (economic and political) to positively affect inclusive human development exclusively in countries with above-median levels of inclusive human development. It follows that countries with averagely higher levels of inclusive human development are more likely to benefit from the relevance of income levels in influencing governance for inclusive development. Second, the importance of middle income in modulating political governance to positively affect inclusive human is apparent exclusively in the median while the relevance of middle income in moderating economic governance to positively influence inclusive human development is significantly apparent in the 10th and 75th quantiles. Third, regardless of panels, income levels modulate economic governance to affect inclusive human development at a higher magnitude, compared to political governance. Policy implications are discussed in the light of the post-2015 agenda of sustainable development goals and contemporary development paradigms. This study complements the extant sparse literature on the inclusive human development in Africa.

This study assesses the simultaneous openness hypothesis that trade modulates foreign direct investment (FDI) to induce positive net effects on total factor productivity (TFP) dynamics. Twenty-five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and data for the period 1980 to 2014 are used. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. First, trade imports modulate FDI to overwhelmingly induce positive net effects on TFP, real TFP growth, welfare TFP and real welfare TFP. Second, with exceptions on TFP and welfare TFP where net effects are both positive and negative, trade exports modulate FDI to overwhelmingly induce positive net effects on real TFP growth and welfare real TFP. In summary, the tested hypothesis is valid for the most part. Policy implications are discussed.

This study explores whether female economic inclusion enhances tax performance in a sample of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2018. The study's empirical evidence is based on the generalized method of moments in order to account for endogeneity concerns. Three tax performance measurements are used, notably, total taxes revenue excluding social contributions, reported tax revenue derived from natural resources sources, and total non-resource tax revenue. Three female inclusion indicators are used, namely, female employment in industry, female labour force participation, and female employment. The following empirical evidences are documented; (i) There is a negative net effect from the enhancement of female employment in the industry on the total tax revenue. (ii) There is a positive net effect of female employment in the industry on the non-resource taxes. An extended threshold analysis is performed to establish the critical masses that could further influence tax performance positively. The following thresholds are established. (i) a minimum of 15.35 "employment in industry, female (% of female employment)" for the total tax revenue and (ii) a maximum of 23.75 "employment in industry, female (% of female employment)" for the non-resource tax revenue. These critical masses are crucial for sustainable development because, below or beyond these thresholds, policy makers should complement the female economic inclusion with other economic measures designed to improve tax performance in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This study investigates how enhancing information and communication technology (ICT) affects value added across sectors in 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa using data for the period 1980-2014. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. The following findings are established. First, the enhancement of mobile phone and internet penetrations respectively have net negative effects on value added to the agricultural and manufacturing sectors.Second, enhancing ICT (i.e. mobile phone penetration and internet penetration) overwhelmingly has positive net effects on value added to the service sector. From an extended analysis, enhancing ICT in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors should exceed certain thresholds for value added, notably: 114.375 of mobile phone penetration per 100 people for added value in the agricultural sector and 22.625 of internet penetration per 100 people for added value in the manufacturing sector.

This study unites two streams of research by simultaneously focusing on the impact of financial globalisation on financial development and pre- and post-crisis dynamics of the investigated relationship. The empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries for the period 2004-2011 and Generalised Method of Moments. The following findings are established. First, whereas marginal effects from financial globalisation are positive on financial dynamics of activity and size, corresponding net effects (positive thresholds) are negative (within range). Second, while decreasing financial globalisation returns are apparent to financial dynamics of depth and efficiency, corresponding net effects (negative thresholds) are positive (not within range). Third, financial development dynamics are more weakly stationary and strongly convergent in the pre-crisis period. Fourth, the net effect from the: pre-crisis period is lower on money supply and banking system efficiency; post-crisis period is positive on financial system efficiency and pre-crisis period is positive on financial size.

The study examines the use of governance tools to fight capital flight by reducing the capital flight trap. Two overarching policy syndromes are addressed in the study. It first assesses whether governance is an effective deterrent to the capital flight trap in Africa, before examining what thresholds of government quality are required to fight the capital flight trap in the continent. The following findings are established. Evidence of a capital flight trap is apparent because past values of capital flight have a positive effect on future values of capital flight. The net effects from interactions of the capital flight trap with political stability, regulation quality, economic governance and corruption-control on capital flight are positive. The critical masses at which "voice & accountability" and regulation quality can complement the capital flight trap to reduce capital flight are respectively, 0.120 and 0.680, which correspond to the best performing countries. Policy implications are discussed.

This study examines the effects of oil supply and global demand shocks on the volatility of commodity prices in the metal and agricultural commodity markets using the SVAR model. The empirical evidence is based on real time daily closing international commodity prices covering the period 2 December 2019 to 1 October 2020. The findings are presented in cumulative impulse responses and variance decompositions. The former is utilized to examine the accumulated influence of structural shocks on the volatility of agricultural and metal commodities whereas the latter reflect the share of variation in the volatility of each commodity arising from each structural shock. Various patterns are provided on how metal and agricultural commodity prices have been influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy implications are discussed.

This research complements the extant literature by establishing inequality critical masses that should not be exceeded in order for financial access to promote gender parity inclusive education in Sub-Saharan Africa. The focus is on 42 countries in the sub-region and the data is for the period 2004-2014. The estimation approach is the Generalized Method of Moments. When remittances are involved in the conditioning information set, the Palma ratio should not exceed 6.000 in order for financial access to promote gender parity inclusive "primary and secondary education" and the Atkinson index should not exceed 0.695 in order for financial access to promote inclusive tertiary education. However, when the internet is involved in the conditioning information set, it is established that in order for financial access to promote inclusive primary and secondary education, the: (i) Gini coefficient should not exceed 0.571; (ii) Atkinson index should not be above 0.750 and (iii) Palma ratio should be maintained below 8.000. Irrespective of variable in the conditioning information set, what is apparent is that inequality decreases the incidence of financial access on inclusive education. Hence, a common policy measure is to reduce inequality in order to promote inclusive education using the financial access mechanism. Policy implications are discussed in the light of Sustainable Development Goals.

The EMU crisis holds special lessons for existing monetary unions. We assess the behavior of real effective exchange rates (REERs) of members of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) zone with respect to their long-term equilibrium paths. A reduced form of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) model is estimated and associated misalignments. Our findings suggest that for majority of countries, macroeconomic fundamentals have the expected associations with the exchange rate fluctuations. The analysis also reveals that only the REER adjustments of Cameroon and Gabon are significant in restoring the long-term equilibrium in event of a shock. The Cameroonian economic fundamentals of terms of trade, government expenditure and openness have different long-term relations with the REER in comparison to those of other member states. There is no need for an adjustment in the level of the peg based on the present quantitative analysis of REER paths.

This study investigates linkages between environmental degradation, globalisation and governance in 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa using data for the period 2000-2012. The Generalised Method of Moments is employed as empirical strategy. Environmental degradation is proxied by carbon dioxide emissions whereas globalisation is appreciated in terms of trade openness and net foreign direct investment inflows. Bundled and unbundled governance indicators are used, namely: political governance (consisting of political stability/no violence and "voice & accountability"), economic governance (encompassing government effectiveness and regulation quality), institutional governance (entailing corruption-control and the rule of law) and general governance (a composite measurement of political governance, economic governance and institutional governance). The following main finding is established. Trade openness modulates carbon dioxide emissions to have positive net effects on political stability, economic governance, the rule of law and general governance.

This study assesses how financial access can be used to modulate the effect of income inequality on gender economic inclusion. The focus is on 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 2004-2014 and the empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and Fixed Effects (FE) regressions. Significant results are not apparent in the FE regressions. The following main findings are established from the GMM estimations. There is a negative net effect from the role of financial access in modulating the effect of the Palma ratio on female labour force participation while there is a positive net effect from the relevance of financial access in moderating the effect of the Gini coefficient on female unemployment. There are also net negative effects from the role of financial access in modulating the Gini coefficient and the Palma ratio for female employment. The unexpected findings are elucidated and implications are discussed in the light of challenges to Sustainable Development Goals in the sub-region. Inter alia: financial access is a necessary but not a sufficient moderator of income inequality for the enhancement of women's participation in the formal economic sector.

This study contributes to the attendant literature by bundling governance dynamics and focusing on foreign aid instability instead of foreign aid. We assess the role of foreign aid instabilit y on governance dynamics in fifty three African countries for the period 1996-2010. An autoregressive endogeneity-robust Generalized Method of Moments is employed. Instabilities are measured in terms of variance of the errors and standard deviations. Three main aid indicators are used, namely: total aid, aid from multilateral donors and bilateral aid. Principal Component Analysis is used to bundle governance indicators, namely: political governance (voice & accountability a nd political stability/no violence), economic governance (regulation quality and government effectiveness), institutional governance (rule of law and corruption-control) and general governance (political, economic and institutional governance). Our findings show that foreign aid instability increases governance standards, especially political and general governance. Poli cy implications are discussed.

Purpose- In this study, we test the so-called 'Quiet Life Hypothesis' (QLH) which postulates that banks with market power are less efficient. Design/methodology/approach- We employ instrumental variable Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Tobit and Logistic regressions. The empirical evidence is based on a panel of 162 banks consisting of 42 African countries for the period 2001-2011. There is a two-step analytical procedure. First, we estimate Lerner indices and cost efficiency scores. Then, we regress cost efficiency scores on Lerner indices contingent on bank characteristics, market features and the unobserved heterogeneity. Findings- The empirical evidence does not support the QLH because market power is positively associated with cost efficiency. Originality/value- Owing to data availability constraints, this is one of the few studies to test the QLH in African banking.

The study assesses the role of globalization-fuelled regionalization policies on financial allocation efficiency in four economic and monetary regions in Africa for the period 1980 to 2008. Banking system and financial system efficiency proxies are used as dependent variables whereas seven bundled and unbundled globalization variables are employed as independent indicators. The bundling exercise is achieved by means of principal component analysis while the empirical evidence is based on interactive Fixed Effects regressions. The following findings are established. First, financial allocation efficiency is more sensitive to financial openness compared to trade openness and most sensitive to globalization. The relationship between allocation efficiency and globalization-fuelled regionalization policies is: (i) Kuznets or inverted U-shape in the UEMOA and CEMAC zones (evidence of decreasing returns to allocation efficiency from globalization-fuelled regionalization) and (ii) U-shape overwhelmingly in the COMESA and scantily in the EAC (increasing returns to allocation efficiency from globalization-fuelled regionalization). Established shapes are relevant to specific globalization dynamics within regions. Economic and monetary regions are more prone to surplus liquidity than purely economic regions. Policy implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity are discussed.

This study examines the effect of terrorism and peace on tourist destination arrivals using a panel of 163 countries with data for the period 2010 to 2015. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments and Negative Binomial (NB) regressions. Our best estimators are from NB regressions from which the following main findings are established. First, political instability, violent demonstrations and number of homicides negatively affect tourist arrivals while the number of incarcerations positively influences the outcome variable. Second the effects from military expenditure, "armed service personnel" and "security officers and polices" are not positively significant. Managerial implications are discussed.

Motivated by evidence that extreme poverty has been decreasing in all regions of the world with the exception of Africa, the study contributes to the literature on reinventing foreign aid by assessing if development assistance can sustain inclusive human development. The empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries with data for the period 2005-2012 and Generalised Method of Moments. The adopted foreign aid variables include: aid for social infrastructure, aid for economic infrastructure, aid to the productive sector, aid to the multi sector, programme assistance, action on debt and humanitarian assistance. The results reveal that whereas foreign aid improves inclusive human development in the short-run, it decreases it in the long term. Policy implications are discussed with particular emphasis on reinventing foreign aid for sustainable development in the post-2015 development agenda.

In this study, we examine the role of information and communication technology in complementing information sharing bureaus (or private credit bureaus and public credit registries) for financial sector competition. Hitherto unexplored dimensions of financial sector competition are employed, namely: financial sector dynamics of formalization, informalization and non-formalization. The empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries for the period 2004-2011 and the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) with forward orthogonal deviations. The findings differ across financial sectors in terms of marginal, net and threshold effects. By introducing the concept of financialization, the study unites two streams of research by: improving the macroeconomic literature on measuring financial development and responding to an evolving field of development literature by means of informal finance. Moreover, a practical method by which to disentangle the effects of reducing information asymmetry on various financial sectors is suggested. Policy implications are discussed.