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Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a growing proportion of liver disease cases, and there is a need to better understand future disease burden. We used a modelling framework to forecast the burden of disease of NAFLD and NASH for Canada., Methods: We used a Markov model to forecast fibrosis progression from stage F0 (no fibrosis) to stage F4 (compensated cirrhosis) and subsequent progression to decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation and liver-related death among Canadians with NAFLD from 2019 to 2030. We used historical trends for obesity prevalence among adults to estimate longitudinal changes in the number of incident NAFLD cases., Results: The model projected that the number of NAFLD cases would increase by 20% between 2019 and 2030, from an estimated 7 757 000 cases to 9 305 000 cases. Increases in advanced fibrosis cases were relatively greater, as the number of model-estimated prevalent stage F3 cases would increase by 65%, to 357 000, and that of prevalent stage F4 cases would increase by 95%, to 195 000. Estimated incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis would increase by up to 95%, and the number of annual NAFLD-related deaths would double, to 5600., Interpretation: Increasing rates of obesity translate into increasing NAFLD-related cases of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and related mortality. Prevention efforts should be aimed at reducing the incidence of NAFLD and slowing fibrosis progression among those already affected., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Funding for this project was provided by Gilead Sciences. No other competing interests were declared., (Copyright 2020, Joule Inc. or its licensors.)

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a prevalent liver disease encompassing a broad spectrum of pathologic changes in the liver. Metabolic derangements are suggested to be main causes of NAFLD. As thyroid hormone is a main regulator of energy metabolism, there may be a link between NAFLD and thyroid function. In previous studies, the association between NAFLD and thyroid function was not conclusive. The aim of this study was to clarify the relationship between NAFLD and thyroid function, focusing on subclinical hypothyroidism, using nationwide survey data representing the Korean population. NAFLD was defined as a hepatic steatosis index of 36 or higher. Based on the analysis of nationwide representative data, subclinical hypothyroidism was related to a high risk of NAFLD in males, but not in females. Our study showed that thyroid function might play a substantial role in the development of NAFLD, especially in males. Further study to elucidate the underlying mechanism of gender specific association of mild thyroid dysfunction and NAFLD would be required.