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In changing environments, phenotypic traits are shaped by numerous agents of selection. The optimal phenotypic value maximizing the fitness of an individual thus varies through time and space with various environmental covariates. Selection may differ between different life-cycle stages and act on correlated traits inducing changes in the distribution of several traits simultaneously. Despite increasing interests in environmental sensitivity of phenotypic selection, estimating varying selective optima on various traits throughout the life cycle, while considering (a)biotic factors as potential selective agents has remained challenging. Here, we provide a statistical model to measure varying selective optima from longitudinal data. We apply our approach to analyze environmental sensitivity of phenotypic selection on egg-laying date and clutch size throughout the life cycle of a white-throated dipper population. We show the presence of a joint optimal phenotype that varies over the 35-year period, being dependent on altitude and temperature. We also find that optimal laying date is density-dependent, with high population density favoring earlier laying dates. By providing a flexible approach, widely applicable to free-ranging populations for which long-term data on individual phenotypes, fitness, and environmental factors are available, our study improves the understanding of phenotypic selection in varying environments.

L-M.C. and P.d.V. acknowledge support from the European Research Council (ERC) (Grant 678140-FluctEvol). The Montpellier tit group acknowledges the long-term support of the Observatoire des Sciences de l’Univers – Obser-vatoire de REcherche Montpelliérain de l’Environnement (OSU-OREME). The bighorn, mountain goat, and eastern gray kangaroo studies were supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. Recent data collection for Wytham has been provided by grants from Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/L006081/1), ERC (AdG250164), and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (NE/K006274/1, NE/S010335/1). The Columbian ground squirrel study was supported by the National Science Foundation (Grant DEB-0089473). Trait and fitness data for hihi were collected/managed by John Ewen under New Zealand Department of Conservation hihi management contracts and research permits AK/15073/RES, AK-24128-FAU, 36186-FAU, and 44300-FAU and with additional financial support via NERC UK, The Leverhulme Trust UK, Marsden Fund New Zealand, and the Hihi Conservation Charitable Trust. The data on reindeer were made available through the Reindeer husbandry in a Globalizing North Nordic Center of Excellence, and the crew at Kutuharju Experimental Reindeer Research Station in the Reindeer Herder’s Association are thanked for their valuable assistance and logistic support in data collection. The red deer, Silwood blue tit, and Soay sheep datasets were supported by UK NERC. Lundy sparrow data were supported by NERC, a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Action, and Volkswagenstiftung. The red squirrel project was funded by NSERC of Canada and the National Science Foundation. J.C.S. was supported by a grant from the Ministry of Economy and Competitivity, Spanish Research Council (CGL-2016-79568-C3-3-P). J.T., T.K., and M.G. were supported by the Research Council of Norway through its Centers for Excellence funding scheme, Project 223257. Research on fairy wrens has been supported by the Australian Research Council. The Northern wheatear and the flycatcher studies were supported by grants from the Swedish Research Council VR. Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection. Postprint

Recent climate change has led to advanced spring phenology in many temperate regions. The phenological response to variation in the local environment, such as the habitat characteristics of the territories birds occupy, is less clear. The aim of this study is to understand how ecological conditions affect breeding time, and its consequences for reproduction, in a white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus population in a river system in Norway during 34 years (1978–2011). Hatching date advanced almost nine days, indicating a response to higher temperatures and the advanced phenology in the area. Earlier breeding was found in warm springs and at lower altitudes. High population density facilitated earlier breeding close to the coast. Furthermore, when population density was low, breeding was early at territories that were rarely occupied, while in years with high density, breeding was early at territories that were frequently occupied. Also, when population density was low, earlier breeding occurred at territories that on average produced more offspring than other territories, while there was no difference in breeding time in high population years. Selection for early breeding was dependent on spring temperatures and high spring temperatures contributed to higher breeding success during the study period. We found that breeding phenology may have strong effects on fitness in the white-throated dipper, and thus that breeding time is an important ecological factor in a species that feeds mainly on aquatic rather than terrestrial prey.

Interactions between birds and fish are often overlooked in aquatic ecosystems. We studied the influence of Atlantic salmon and brown trout on the breeding population size and reproductive output of the white‐throated dipper in a Norwegian river. Acidic precipitation led to the extinction of salmon, but salmon recolonized after liming was initiated in 1991. We compared the dipper population size and reproductive output before (1978–1992) and after (1993–2014) salmon recolonization. Despite a rapid and substantial increase in juvenile salmon, the breeding dipper population size and reproductive output were not influenced by juvenile salmon, trout, or total salmonid density. This might be due to different feeding strategies in salmonids and dippers, where salmonids are mainly feeding on drift, while the dipper is a benthic feeder. The correlation between the size of the dipper population upstream and downstream of a salmonid migratory barrier was similar before and after recolonization, indicating that the downstream territories were not less attractive after the recolonization of salmon. Upstream dipper breeding success rates declined before the recolonization event and increased after, indicating improved water quality due to liming, and increasing invertebrate prey abundances and biodiversity. Surprisingly, upstream the migratory barrier, juvenile trout had a weak positive effect on the dipper population size, indicating that dippers may prey upon small trout. It is possible that wider downstream reaches might have higher abundances of alternative food, rending juvenile trout unimportant as prey. Abiotic factors such as winter temperatures and acidic precipitation with subsequent liming, potentially mediated by prey abundance, seem to play the most important role in the life history of the dipper.

Interactions between birds and fish are often overlooked in aquatic ecosystems. We studied the influence of Atlantic salmon and brown trout on the breeding population size and reproductive output of the white-throated dipper in a Norwegian river. Acidic precipitation led to the extinction of salmon, but salmon recolonized after liming was initiated in 1991. We compared the dipper population size and reproductive output before (1978–1992) and after (1993–2014) salmon recolonization. Despite a rapid and substantial increase in juvenile salmon, the breeding dipper population size and reproductive output were not influenced by juvenile salmon, trout, or total salmonid density. This might be due to different feeding strategies in salmonids and dippers, where salmonids are mainly feeding on drift, while the dipper is a benthic feeder. The correlation between the size of the dipper population upstream and downstream of a salmonid migratory barrier was similar before and after recolonization, indicating that the downstream territories were not less attractive after the recolonization of salmon. Upstream dipper breeding success rates declined before the recolonization event and increased after, indicating improved water quality due to liming, and increasing invertebrate prey abundances and biodiversity. Surprisingly, upstream the migratory barrier, juvenile trout had a weak positive effect on the dipper population size, indicating that dippers may prey upon small trout. It is possible that wider downstream reaches might have higher abundances of alternative food, rending juvenile trout unimportant as prey. Abiotic factors such as winter temperatures and acidic precipitation with subsequent liming, potentially mediated by preyabundance, seem to play the most important role in the life history of the dipper. birds, breeding, predators, river, salmonids

Warmer winters alter the dynamics of a local bird population and reduce immigration rate due to density-dependent feedback., Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions.

To study the ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on timing of annual events, scientists need access to data that have been collected over long time periods. High-quality long-term phenology data are rare and costly to obtain and there is therefore a need to extract this information from other available data sets. Many long-term studies on breeding birds include detailed information on individually marked parents and offspring, but do not include information on timing of breeding. Here, we demonstrate how a study of repeated standard measurements of white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus nestlings in our study system in southernmost Norway can be used for modeling nestling growth, and how this statistical model can be used to estimate timing of breeding for birds with sparser data. We also evaluate how the accuracies of nestling growth models based on different morphological traits (mass and feather length) differ depending on the nestling age, present user guidelines and demonstrate how they can be applied to an independent data set. In conclusion, the approach presented is likely to be useful for a wide variety of species, even if the preferred measurement may differ between species.

Summary 1. Climate change may have profound consequences for many organisms. We have studied fluctuations in a population of the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus during 31 years (1978–2008) in a river system in southern Norway in relation to both large-scale and local weather conditions occurring during the non-breeding season. 2. Multiple regression and partial least squares regression were used to model the growth rate of the population, accounting for population size in the previous year. 3. Population growth was influenced by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), mean winter temperature, precipitation and timing of ice formation on the main lake in the river system in autumn. These variables explained 84% of the variation in population growth over the 31 -year study period. 4. Local winter conditions played a prominent role in explaining the population fluctuations, which is plausible because the dipper depends on open water for foraging. In the study area, winters can be harsh and rivers and lakes may freeze and severely affect the subsequent population size of the dipper in spring. 5. The breeding population of the dipper does not seem yet to have reached a level where all possible territories in the area have been occupied, even after mild winters, and the estimated carrying capacity is also decidedly lower (66 breeding pairs) than the number of available territories. If the trend of milder winters continues, the population might increase in the future. However, strong climate variation is expected to continue in the future, and hence periods of rapid growth of the dipper population will probably be followed by severe declines.

There is large interspecific variation in the magnitude of population fluctuations, even among closely related species. The factors generating this variation are not well understood, primarily because of the challenges of separating the relative impact of variation in population size from fluctuations in the environment. Here, we show using demographic data from 13 bird populations that magnitudes of fluctuations in population size are mainly driven by stochastic fluctuations in the environment. Regulation towards an equilibrium population size occurs through density-dependent mortality. At small population sizes, population dynamics are primarily driven by environment-driven variation in recruitment, whereas close to the carrying capacity K, variation in population growth is more strongly influenced by density-dependent mortality of both juveniles and adults. Our results provide evidence for the hypothesis proposed by Lack that population fluctuations in birds arise from temporal variation in the difference between density-independent recruitment and density-dependent mortality during the non-breeding season., Why does population variability differ? Sæther et al. show that the magnitude of temporal variation of avian population fluctuations is mainly determined by environmental fluctuations affecting recruitment, whereas regulation of mean population size occurs through density-dependent mortality.

Accurate estimates of population parameters are vital for estimating extinction risk. Such parameters, however, are typically not available for threatened populations. We used a recently developed software tool based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for carrying out Bayesian inference (the BUGS package) to estimate four demographic parameters; the intrinsic growth rate, the strength of density dependence, and the demographic and environmental variance, in three species of small temperate passerines from two sets of time series data taken from a dipper and a song sparrow population, and from previously obtained frequentist estimates of the same parameters in the great tit. By simultaneously modeling variation in these demographic parameters across species and using the resulting distributions as priors in the estimation for individual species, we improve the estimates for each individual species. This framework also allows us to make probabilistic statements about plausible parameter values for small passerines temperate birds in general which is often critically needed in management of species for which little or no data are available. We also discuss how our work relates to recently developed theory on dynamic stochastic population models, and finally note some important differences between frequentist and Bayesian methods.

Predicting the effects of an expected climatic change requires estimates and modeling of stochastic factors as well as density-dependent effects in the population dynamics. In a population of a small songbird, the dipper ( Cinclus cinclus ), environmental stochasticity and density dependence both influenced the population growth rate. About half of the environmental variance was explained by variation in mean winter temperature. Including these results in a stochastic model shows that an expected change in climate will strongly affect the dynamics of the population, leading to a nonlinear increase in the carrying capacity and in the expected mean population size.

Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by the NAO increased with latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higher latitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to the variability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased with latitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change will depend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species, the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected.