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Astrophysical black holes (BHs) have two fundamental properties: mass and spin. While the mass-evolution of BHs has been extensively studied, much less work has been done on predicting the distribution of BH spins. In this paper we present the spin evolution for a sample of intermediate-mass and massive BHs from the newHorizon simulation, which evolved BH spin across cosmic time in a full cosmological context through gas accretion, BH-BH mergers and BH feedback including jet spindown. As BHs grow, their spin evolution alternates between being dominated by gas accretion and BH mergers. Massive BHs are generally highly spinning. Accounting for the spin energy extracted through the Blandford-Znajek mechanism increases the scatter in BH spins, especially in the mass range $10^{5-7} \rm \ M_\odot$, where BHs had previously been predicted to be almost universally maximally spinning. We find no evidence for spin-down through efficient chaotic accretion. As a result of their high spin values, massive BHs have an average radiative efficiency of $<\varepsilon_{\rm r}^{\rm thin}> \approx 0.19$. As BHs spend much of their time at low redshift with a radiatively inefficient thick disc, BHs in our sample remain hard to observe. Different observational methods probe different sub-populations of BHs, significantly influencing the observed distribution of spins. Generally, X-ray-based methods and higher luminosity cuts increase the average observed BH spin. When taking BH spin evolution into account, BHs inject on average between 3 times (in quasar mode) and 8 times (in radio mode) as much feedback energy into their host galaxy as previously assumed., Comment: 21 pages, accepted for publication in MNRAS

The decay of the para-positronium into two photons is studied in the framework of a composite Quantum Field Theoretical approach. This amounts to the evaluation of the electron-positron dressing together with the Weinberg compositeness condition for the positronium and the triangle-shaped diagram with virtual electrons circulating in it, leading to the two-photon final state. An important role is played by the positronium-electron-positron vertex, which is linked to the wave function of the para-positronium. We show how possible choices for the vertex function affect the $\gamma \gamma$ decay rate. Outlooks to other decay channels and to other positronia are presented., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables, Prepared for the proceedings of the 5th Jagiellonian Symposium on `Advances in Particle Physics and Medicine', June 29 - July 7 2024, Cracow, Poland

Radio continuum emission from galaxies at gigahertz frequencies can be used as an extinction-free tracer of star formation. However, at frequencies of a few hundred megahertz, there is evidence for low-frequency spectral flattening. We wish to better understand the origin of this low-frequency flattening and, to this end, perform a spatially resolved study of the nearby spiral galaxy M 51. We explore the different effects that can cause flattening of the spectrum towards lower frequencies, such as free-free absorption and cosmic-ray ionisation losses. We used radio continuum intensity maps between 54 and 8350 MHz at eight different frequencies, with observations at 240 MHz from the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope presented for the first time. We corrected for contribution from thermal free-free emission using an H$\alpha$ map that has been extinction-corrected with 24 $\mu$m data. We fitted free-free absorption models to the radio spectra to determine the emission measure (EM) as well as polynomial functions to measure the non-thermal spectral curvature. The non-thermal low-frequency radio continuum spectrum between 54 and 144 MHz is very flat and even partially inverted, particularly in the spiral arms; contrary, the spectrum at higher frequencies shows the typical non-thermal radio continuum spectrum. However, we do not find any correlation between the EMs calculated from radio and from H$\alpha$ observations; instead, the non-thermal spectral curvature weakly correlates with the HI gas mass surface density. This suggests that cosmic-ray ionisation losses play an important role in the low-frequency spectral flattening. The observed spectral flattening towards low frequencies in M 51 is caused by a combination of ionisation losses and free-free absorption. The reasons for this flattening need to be understood in order to use sub-GHz frequencies as a star-formation tracer.

Star formation quenching is one of the key processes that shape the evolution of galaxies. In this study, we investigate the changes in molecular gas and star formation properties as galaxies transit from the star-forming main sequence to the passive regime. Our analysis reveals that as galaxies move away from the main sequence towards the green valley the radial profile of specific star formation rate surface density ($\Sigma_\mathrm{sSFR}$) is suppressed compared with main sequence galaxies out to a galactocentric radius of 1.5 $R_{e}$ ($\sim$ 7 kpc for our sample). By combining radial profiles of gas fraction ($f_\mathrm{gas}$) and star formation efficiency (SFE), we can discern the underlying mechanism that determines $\Sigma_\mathrm{sSFR}$ at different galactocentric radii. Analysis of relative contributions of $f_\mathrm{gas}$ and SFE to $\Sigma_\mathrm{sSFR}$ uncovers a diverse range of quenching modes. Star formation in approximately half of our quenching galaxies is primarily driven by a single mode (i.e. either $f_\mathrm{gas}$ or SFE), or a combination of both. A collective analysis of all galaxies reveals that the reduction in star formation within the central regions ($R$ $<$ 0.5 $R_{e}$) is primarily attributable to a decrease in SFE. Conversely, in the disk regions ($R$ $>$ 0.5 $R_{e}$), both $f_\mathrm{gas}$ and SFE contribute to the suppression of star formation. Our findings suggest that multiple quenching mechanisms may be at play in our sample galaxies, and even within a single galaxy. We also compare our observational outcomes with those from galaxy simulations and discuss the implications of our data., Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

We present an analysis of the quenching of local observed and simulated galaxies, including an investigation of the dependence of quiescence on both intrinsic and environmental parameters. We apply an advanced machine learning technique utilizing random forest classification to predict when galaxies are star forming or quenched. We perform separate classification analyses for three groups of galaxies: (a) central galaxies; (b) high-mass satellites ($M_{*} > 10^{10.5}{\rm M_{\odot}}$); and (c) low-mass satellites ($M_{*} < 10^{10}{\rm M_{\odot}}$) for three cosmological hydrodynamical simulations (EAGLE, Illustris, and IllustrisTNG), and observational data from the SDSS. The simulation results are unanimous and unambiguous: quiescence in centrals and high-mass satellites is best predicted by intrinsic parameters (specifically central black hole mass), whilst it is best predicted by environmental parameters (specifically halo mass) for low-mass satellites. In observations, we find black hole mass to best predict quiescence for centrals and high mass satellites, exactly as predicted by the simulations. However, local galaxy over-density is found to be most predictive parameter for low-mass satellites. Nonetheless, both simulations and observations do agree that it is environment which quenches low mass satellites. We provide evidence which suggests that the dominance of local over-density in classifying low mass systems may be due to the high uncertainty in halo mass estimation from abundance matching, rather than it being fundamentally a more predictive parameter. Finally, we establish that the qualitative trends with environment predicted in simulations are recoverable in the observation space. This has important implications for future wide-field galaxy surveys., Comment: Accepted to MNRAS; 32 pages; 22 figures

Parsec-scale separation supermassive black hole binaries in the centre of gas-rich galaxy merger remnants could be surrounded by massive circumbinary discs (CBDs). Black hole mass and spin evolution during the gas-rich binary inspiral are crucial in determining the direction and power of relativistic jets that radio observations with LOFAR and SKAO will probe, and for predicting gravitational wave (GW) emission that IPTA and LISA will measure. We present 3D hydrodynamic simulations capturing gas-rich, self-gravitating CBDs around a $2\times 10^6$ M$_{\odot}$ supermassive black hole binary, that probe different mass ratios, eccentricities and inclinations. We employ a sub-grid Shakura-Sunyaev accretion disc to self-consistently model black hole mass and spin evolution together with super-Lagrangian refinement techniques to resolve gas flows, streams and mini-discs within the cavity, which play a fundamental role in torquing and feeding the binary. We find that higher mass ratio and eccentric binaries result in larger cavities, while retrograde binaries result in smaller cavities. All of the simulated binaries are expected to shrink with net gravitational torques being negative. Unlike previous simulations, we do not find preferential accretion onto the secondary black hole. This implies smaller chirp masses at coalescence and hence a weaker GW background. Critically this means that spin-alignment is faster than the binary inspiral timescale even for low mass ratios. When considering initially misaligned systems, the orientation of the mini-discs around each black hole can vary significantly. We discuss the implications of this behaviour for black hole spin alignment and highlight the need for broader parameter space studies of misaligned systems to understand the impact on black hole recoil velocities., Comment: 30 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

In the framework of a scalar QFT, we evaluate the decay of an initial massive state into two massless particles through a triangle-shaped diagram in which virtual fields propagate. Under certain conditions, the decaying state can be seen as a bound state, thus it is analogous to the neutral pion (quark-antiquark pair) and to the positronium (electron-positron pair), which decay into two photons. While the pion is a relativistic composite object, the positronium is a non-relativistic compound close to threshold. We exam similarities and differences between these two types of bound states., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, Prepared for the proceedings of the 18th Symposium on new trends in Nuclear and Medical Physics, Cracow, Poland, 18-20 October 2023

The hard X-ray emission in active galactic nuclei (AGN) and black hole X-ray binaries is thought to be produced by a hot cloud of electrons referred to as the corona. This emission, commonly described by a power law with a high-energy cutoff, is suggestive of Comptonization by thermal electrons. While several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the origin, geometry, and composition of the corona, we still lack a clear understanding of this fundamental component. NuSTAR has been playing a key role improving our knowledge of X-ray coronae thanks to its unprecedented sensitivity above 10 keV. However, these constraints are limited to bright, nearby sources. The High Energy X-ray Probe (HEX-P) is a probe-class mission concept combining high spatial resolution X-ray imaging and broad spectral coverage (0.2-80 keV) with a sensitivity superior to current facilities. In this paper, we highlight the major role that HEX-P will play in further advancing our insights of X-ray coronae, notably in AGN. We demonstrate how HEX-P will measure key properties and track the temporal evolution of coronae in unobscured AGN. This will allow us to determine their electron distribution and test the dominant emission mechanisms. Furthermore, we show how HEX-P will accurately estimate the coronal properties of obscured AGN in the local Universe, helping address fundamental questions about AGN unification. In addition, HEX-P will characterize coronae in a large sample of luminous quasars at cosmological redshifts for the first time and track the evolution of coronae in transient systems in real time. We also demonstrate how HEX-P will enable estimating the coronal geometry using spectral-timing techniques. HEX-P will thus be essential to understand the evolution and growth of black holes over a broad range of mass, distance, and luminosity, and will help uncover the black holes' role in shaping the Universe., Comment: Submitted to Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences after reviewers reports

Ever since the discovery of the first Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), substantial observational and theoretical effort has been invested into understanding how massive black holes have evolved across cosmic time. Circum-nuclear obscuration is now established as a crucial component, with almost every AGN observed known to display signatures of some level of obscuration in their X-ray spectra. But despite more than six decades of effort, substantial open questions remain: How does the accretion power impact the structure of the circum-nuclear obscurer? What are the dynamical properties of the obscurer? Can dense circum-nuclear obscuration exist around intrinsically weak AGN? How many intermediate mass black holes occupy the centers of dwarf galaxies? In this paper, we showcase a number of next-generation prospects attainable with the High Energy X-ray Probe (https://hexp.org) to contribute towards solving these questions in the 2030s. The uniquely broad (0.2--80 keV) and strictly simultaneous X-ray passband of HEX-P makes it ideally suited for studying the temporal co-evolution between the central engine and circum-nuclear obscurer. Improved sensitivities and reduced background will enable the development of spectroscopic models complemented by current and future multi-wavelength observations. We show that the angular resolution of HEX-P both below and above 10 keV will enable the discovery and confirmation of accreting massive black holes at both low accretion power and low black hole masses even when concealed by thick obscuration. In combination with other next-generation observations of the dusty hearts of nearby galaxies, HEX-P will hence be pivotal in paving the way towards a complete picture of black hole growth and galaxy co-evolution., Comment: To be submitted for peer review to a HEX-P Collection in Frontiers of Astronomy and Space Science. Constructive comments welcome!

Constraining the primary growth channel of supermassive black holes (SMBH) remains one the most actively debated questions in the context of cosmological structure formation. Owing to the expected connection between SMBH spin parameter evolution and the accretion and merger history of individual black holes, population spin measurements offer a rare observational window into the SMBH cosmic growth. As of today, the most common method for estimating SMBH spin relies on modeling the relativistically broaden atomic profiles in the reflection spectrum observed in X-rays. In this paper, we study the observational requirements needed to confidently distinguish between the primary SMBH growth channels, based on their distinct spin-mass distributions predicted by the Horizon-AGN cosmological simulation. In doing so, we characterize outstanding limitations associated with the existing measurements and discuss the landscape of future observational campaigns, which can be planned and executed with future X-ray observatories. We focus our attention on the High-Energy X-ray Probe (HEX-P), a concept probe-class mission aimed to serve the high-energy community in the 2030s., Comment: 26 pages, 11 figures, submitted for publication in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences

We present an analysis of the quenching of star formation in massive galaxies ($M_* > 10^{9.5} M_\odot$) within the first 0.5 - 3 Gyr of the Universe's history utilizing JWST-CEERS data. We utilize a combination of advanced statistical methods to accurately constrain the intrinsic dependence of quenching in a multi-dimensional and inter-correlated parameter space. Specifically, we apply Random Forest (RF) classification, area statistics, and a partial correlation analysis to the JWST-CEERS data. First, we identify the key testable predictions from two state-of-the-art cosmological simulations (IllustrisTNG & EAGLE). Both simulations predict that quenching should be regulated by supermassive black hole mass in the early Universe. Furthermore, both simulations identify the stellar potential ($\phi_*$) as the optimal proxy for black hole mass in photometric data. In photometric observations, where we have no direct constraints on black hole masses, we find that the stellar potential is the most predictive parameter of massive galaxy quenching at all epochs from $z = 0 - 8$, exactly as predicted by simulations for this sample. The stellar potential outperforms stellar mass, galaxy size, galaxy density, and S\'ersic index as a predictor of quiescence at all epochs probed in JWST-CEERS. Collectively, these results strongly imply a stable quenching mechanism operating throughout cosmic history, which is closely connected to the central gravitational potential in galaxies. This connection is explained in cosmological models via massive black holes forming and growing in deep potential wells, and subsequently quenching galaxies through a mix of ejective and preventative active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback., Comment: Accepted to ApJ. 32 pages; 10 figures

During the outbursts of black hole X-ray binaries (BHXRBs), their accretion flows transition through several states. The source luminosity rises in the hard state, dominated by non-thermal emission, before transitioning to the blackbody-dominated soft state. As the luminosity decreases, the source transitions back into the hard state and fades to quiescence. This picture does not always hold, as $\approx$ 40$\%$ of the outbursts never leave the hard state. Identifying the physics that govern state transitions remains one of the outstanding open questions in black hole astrophysics. In this paper we present an analysis of archival RXTE data of multiple outbursts of GX 339-4. We compare the properties of the X-ray variability and time-averaged energy spectrum and demonstrate that the variability (quantified by the power spectral hue) systematically evolves $\approx$ 10-40 days ahead of the canonical state transition (quantified by a change in spectral hardness); no such evolution is found in hard state only outbursts. This indicates that the X-ray variability can be used to predict if and when the hard-to-soft state transition will occur. Finally, we find a similar behavior in ten outbursts of four additional BHXRBs with more sparse observational coverage. Based on these findings, we suggest that state transitions in BHXRBs might be driven by a change in the turbulence in the outer regions of the disk, leading to a dramatic change in variability. This change is only seen in the spectrum days to weeks later, as the fluctuations propagate inwards towards the corona., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

One of the most important questions in astrophysics is what causes galaxies to stop forming stars. Previous studies have shown a tight link between quiescence and black hole mass. Other studies have revealed that quiescence is also associated with 'starvation', the halting of gas inflows, which results in the remaining gas being used up by star formation and in rapid chemical enrichment. In this work, we find the missing link between these two findings. Using a large sample of galaxies, we uncover the intrinsic dependencies of the stellar metallicity on galaxy properties. In the case of star-forming galaxies, stellar metallicity is primarily driven by stellar mass. However, for passive galaxies, the stellar metallicity is primarily driven by the stellar velocity dispersion. The latter is known to be tightly correlated with black hole mass. This result can be seen as connecting previous studies, where the integrated effect of black hole feedback (i.e. black hole mass, traced by the velocity dispersion) prevents gas inflows, starving the galaxy, which is seen by the rapid increase in the stellar metallicity, and leading to the galaxy becoming passive., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Glueballs remain an experimentally undiscovered expectation of QCD. Lattice QCD (As well as other theoretical approaches) predicts a spectrum of glueballs, with the tensor ($J^{PC}=2^{++}$) glueball being the second lightest, behind the scalar glueball. Here, using a chiral hadronic model, we compute decay ratios of the tensor glueball into various meson decay channels. We find the tensor glueball to primarily decay into two vector mesons, dominated by $\rho \rho $ and $K^*K^*$ channels. These results are compared to experimental data of decay rates of isoscalar tensor mesons. Based on this comparison, we make statements on the eligibility of these mesons as potential tensor glueball candidates: the resonance $f_2(1950)$ turns out to be, at present, the best match as being predominantly a tensor glueball., Comment: v3 fixed email and table

Decentralized, offline, and privacy-preserving e-cash could fulfil the need for both scalable and byzantine fault-resistant payment systems. Existing offline anonymous e-cash schemes are unsuitable for distributed environments due to a central bank. We construct a distributed offline anonymous e-cash scheme, in which the role of the bank is performed by a quorum of authorities, and present its two instantiations. Our first scheme is compact, i.e. the cost of the issuance protocol and the size of a wallet are independent of the number of coins issued, but the cost of payment grows linearly with the number of coins spent. Our second scheme is divisible and thus the cost of payments is also independent of the number of coins spent, but the verification of deposits is more costly. We provide formal security proof of both schemes and compare the efficiency of their implementations.

We present the first study of spatially integrated higher-order stellar kinematics over cosmic time. We use deep rest-frame optical spectroscopy of quiescent galaxies at redshifts z=0.05, 0.3 and 0.8 from the SAMI, MAGPI and LEGA-C surveys to measure the excess kurtosis $h_4$ of the stellar velocity distribution, the latter parametrised as a Gauss-Hermite series. Conservatively using a redshift-independent cut in stellar mass ($M_\star = 10^{11}\,{\rm M}_\odot$), and matching the stellar-mass distributions of our samples, we find 7 $\sigma$ evidence of $h_4$ increasing with cosmic time, from a median value of 0.019$\pm$0.002 at z=0.8 to 0.059$\pm$0.004 at z=0.06. Alternatively, we use a physically motivated sample selection, based on the mass distribution of the progenitors of local quiescent galaxies as inferred from numerical simulations; in this case, we find 10 $\sigma$ evidence. This evolution suggests that, over the last 7 Gyr, there has been a gradual decrease in the rotation-to-dispersion ratio and an increase in the radial anisotropy of the stellar velocity distribution, qualitatively consistent with accretion of gas-poor satellites. These findings demonstrate that massive galaxies continue to accrete mass and increase their dispersion support after becoming quiescent., Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We present the first statistical study of spatially integrated non-Gaussian stellar kinematics spanning 7 Gyr in cosmic time. We use deep, rest-frame optical spectroscopy of massive galaxies (stellar mass $M_\star > 10^{10.5} {\rm M}_\odot$) at redshifts z = 0.05, 0.3 and 0.8 from the SAMI, MAGPI and LEGA-C surveys, to measure the excess kurtosis $h_4$ of the stellar velocity distribution, the latter parametrised as a Gauss-Hermite series. We find that at all redshifts where we have large enough samples, $h_4$ anti-correlates with the ratio between rotation and dispersion, highlighting the physical connection between these two kinematic observables. In addition, and independently from the anti-correlation with rotation-to-dispersion ratio, we also find a correlation between $h_4$ and $M_\star$, potentially connected to the assembly history of galaxies. In contrast, after controlling for mass, we find no evidence of independent correlation between $h_4$ and aperture velocity dispersion or galaxy size. These results hold for both star-forming and quiescent galaxies. For quiescent galaxies, $h_4$ also correlates with projected shape, even after controlling for the rotation-to-dispersion ratio. At any given redshift, star-forming galaxies have lower $h_4$ compared to quiescent galaxies, highlighting the link between kinematic structure and star-forming activity., Comment: 26 pages, 15 figures Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Around half of all cancer patients, world-wide, will receive some form of radiotherapy (RT) as part of their treatment. And yet, despite the rapid advance of high-throughput screening to identify successful chemotherapy drug candidates, there is no current analogue for RT protocol screening or discovery at any scale. Here we introduce and demonstrate the application of a high-throughput/high-fidelity coupled tumour-irradiation simulation approach, we call "GPU-GA", and apply it to human breast cancer analogue - EMT6/Ro spheroids. By analysing over 9.5 million candidate protocols, GPU-GA yields significant gains in tumour suppression versus prior state-of-the-art high-fidelity/-low-throughput computational search under two clinically relevant benchmarks. By extending the search space to hypofractionated areas (> 2 Gy/day) yet within total dose limits, further tumour suppression of up to 33.7% compared to state-of-the-art is obtained. GPU-GA could be applied to any cell line with sufficient empirical data, and to many clinically relevant RT considerations.

Nebular HeII$\lambda$4686\AA~line emission is useful to unveil active galactic nuclei (AGN) residing in actively star-forming (SF) galaxies, typically missed by the standard BPT classification. Here we adopt the HeII diagnostic to identify hidden AGN in the Local Universe using for the first time spatially-resolved data from the Data Release 15 of the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO survey (MaNGA DR15). By combining results from HeII and BPT diagnostics, we overall select 459 AGN host candidates ($\sim$10% in MaNGA DR15), out of which 27 are identified as AGN by the HeII diagram only. The HeII-only AGN population is hosted by massive (M$_*\gtrsim10^{10}$ M$_{\odot}$) SF Main Sequence galaxies, and on average less luminous than the BPT-selected AGN. Given the HeII line faintness, we revisit our census accounting for incompleteness effects due to the HeII sensitivity limit of MaNGA. We thus obtain an overall increased fraction (11%) of AGN in MaNGA compared to the BPT-only census (9%), which further increases to 14% for galaxies more massive than $10^{10}$ M$_{\odot}$; interestingly, on the SF Main Sequence the increase is by about a factor of 2. A substantial number of AGN in SF galaxies points to significant, coeval star formation and black hole accretion, consistently with results from hydrodynamical simulations and with important implications on quenching scenarios. In view of exploring unprecedented high redshifts with JWST and new ground-based facilities, revisiting the standard BPT classification through novel emission-line diagnostics is fundamental to discover AGN in highly SF environments., Comment: 13 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

A Faraday rotation measure (RM) catalogue, or RM Grid, is a valuable resource for the study of cosmic magnetism. Using the second data release (DR2) from the LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey (LoTSS), we have produced a catalogue of 2461 extragalactic high-precision RM values across 5720 deg$^{2}$ of sky (corresponding to a polarized source areal number density of $\sim$0.43 deg$^{-2}$). The linear polarization and RM properties were derived using RM synthesis from the Stokes $Q$ and $U$ channel images at an angular resolution of 20'' across a frequency range of 120 to 168 MHz with a channel bandwidth of 97.6 kHz. The fraction of total intensity sources ($>1$ mJy beam$^{-1}$) found to be polarized was $\sim$0.2%. The median detection threshold was 0.6 mJy beam$^{-1}$ ($8\sigma_{QU}$), with a median RM uncertainty of 0.06 rad m$^{-2}$ (although a systematic uncertainty of up to 0.3 rad m$^{-2}$ is possible, after the ionosphere RM correction). The median degree of polarization of the detected sources is 1.8%, with a range of 0.05% to 31%. Comparisons with cm-wavelength RMs indicate minimal amounts of Faraday complexity in the LoTSS detections, making them ideal sources for RM Grid studies. Host galaxy identifications were obtained for 88% of the sources, along with redshifts for 79% (both photometric and spectroscopic), with the median redshift being 0.6. The focus of the current catalogue was on reliability rather than completeness, and we expect future versions of the LoTSS RM Grid to have a higher areal number density. In addition, 25 pulsars were identified, mainly through their high degrees of linear polarization., Comment: 20 pages, 23 figures, 3 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Go to https://lofar-mksp.org/data/ to download the catalogue and associated data products

We identify the intrinsic dependence of star formation quenching on a variety of galactic and environmental parameters, utilizing a machine learning approach with Random Forest classification. We have previously demonstrated the power of this technique to isolate causality, not mere correlation, in complex astronomical data. First, we analyze three cosmological hydrodynamical simulations (Eagle, Illustris, and IllustrisTNG), selecting snapshots spanning the bulk of cosmic history from comic noon ($z \sim 2$) to the present epoch, with stellar masses in the range $9 < \log(M_*/M_{\odot}) < 12$. In the simulations, black hole mass is unanimously found to be the most predictive parameter of central galaxy quenching at all epochs. Perhaps surprisingly, black hole accretion rate (and hence the bolometric luminosity of active galactic nuclei, AGN) is found to be of little predictive power over quenching. This theoretical result is important for observational studies of galaxy quenching as it cautions against using the current AGN state of a galaxy as a useful proxy for the cumulative impact of AGN feedback on a galactic system. The latter is traced by black hole mass not AGN luminosity. Additionally, we explore a sub-set of 'observable' parameters, which can be readily measured in extant wide-field galaxy surveys targeting $z = 0 - 2$, at $9 < \log(M_*/M_{\odot}) < 12$. All three simulations predict that in lieu of black hole mass, the stellar gravitational potential will outperform the other parameters in predicting quenching. We confirm this theoretical prediction observationally in the SDSS (at low redshifts) and in CANDELS (at intermediate and high redshifts)., Comment: Accepted to ApJ. 26 pages; 12 figures