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Extreme slip at shallow depths on subduction zone faults is a primary contributor to tsunami generation by earthquakes. Improving earthquake and tsunami risk assessment requires understanding the material and structural conditions that favor earthquake propagation to the trench. We use new biomarker thermal maturity indicators to identify seismic faults in drill core recovered from the Japan Trench subduction zone, which hosted 50 m of shallow slip during the Mw9.1 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Our results show that multiple faults have hosted earthquakes with displacement ≥ 10 m, and each could have hosted many great earthquakes, illustrating an extensive history of great earthquake seismicity that caused large shallow slip. We find that lithologic contrasts in frictional properties do not necessarily determine the likelihood of large shallow slip or seismic hazard.

The magnitude, rate, and extent of past and future East Asian monsoon (EAM) rainfall fluctuations remain unresolved. Here, late Pleistocene-Holocene EAM rainfall intensity is reconstructed using a well-dated northeastern China closed-basin lake area record located at the modern northwestern fringe of the EAM. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated rapidly between wet and dry periods on time scales of centuries. Lake levels were 60 m higher than present during the early and middle Holocene, requiring a twofold increase in annual rainfall, which, based on modern rainfall distribution, requires a ∼400 km northward expansion/migration of the EAM. The lake record is highly correlated with both northern and southern Chinese cave deposit isotope records, supporting rainfall "intensity based" interpretations of these deposits as opposed to an alternative "water vapor sourcing" interpretation. These results indicate that EAM intensity and the northward extent covary on orbital and millennial timescales. The termination of wet conditions at 5.5 ka BP (∼35 m lake drop) triggered a large cultural collapse of Early Neolithic cultures in north China, and possibly promoted the emergence of complex societies of the Late Neolithic.

East African climate change since the Late Miocene consisted of persistent shorter-term, orbital-scale wet-dry cycles superimposed upon a long-term trend towards more open, grassy landscapes. Either or both of these modes of palaeoclimate variability may have influenced East African mammalian evolution, yet the interrelationship between these secular and orbital palaeoclimate signals remains poorly understood. Here, we explore whether the long-term secular climate change was also accompanied by significant changes at the orbital-scale. We develop northeast African hydroclimate and vegetation proxy data for two 100 kyr-duration windows near 3.05 and 1.75 Ma at ODP Site 967 in the eastern Mediterranean basin, where sedimentation is dominated by eastern Sahara dust input and Nile River run-off. These two windows were selected because they have comparable orbital configurations and bracket an important increase in East African C4 grasslands. We conducted high-resolution (2.5 kyr sampling) multiproxy biomarker, H- and C-isotopic analyses of plant waxes and lignin phenols to document orbital-scale changes in hydrology, vegetation and woody cover for these two intervals. Both intervals are dominated by large-amplitude, precession-scale (approx. 20 kyr) changes in northeast African vegetation and rainfall/run-off. The δ(13)Cwax values and lignin phenol composition record a variable but consistently C4 grass-dominated ecosystem for both intervals (50-80% C4). Precessional δDwax cycles were approximately 20-30‰ in peak-to-peak amplitude, comparable with other δDwax records of the Early Holocene African Humid Period. There were no significant differences in the means or variances of the δDwax or δ(13)Cwax data for the 3.05 and 1.75 Ma intervals studied, suggesting that the palaeohydrology and palaeovegetation responses to precessional forcing were similar for these two periods. Data for these two windows suggest that the eastern Sahara did not experience the significant increase in C4 vegetation that has been observed in East Africa over this time period. This observation would be consistent with a proposed mechanism whereby East African precipitation is reduced, and drier conditions established, in response to the emergence of modern zonal sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical oceans between 3 and 2 Ma.This article is part of the themed issue 'Major transitions in human evolution'.

Reconstructing vegetation at hominin fossil sites provides us critical information about hominin palaeoenvironments and the potential role of climate in their evolution. Here we reconstruct vegetation from carbon isotopes of plant wax biomarkers in sediments of the Nachukui Formation in the Turkana Basin. Plant wax biomarkers were extracted from samples from a wide range of lithologies that include fluvial-lacustrine sediments and palaeosols, and therefore provide a record of vegetation from diverse depositional environments. Carbon isotope ratios from biomarkers indicate a highly dynamic vegetation structure (ca 5-100% C4 vegetation) from 2.3 to 1.7 Ma, with an overall shift towards more C4 vegetation on the landscape after about 2.1 Ma. The biomarker isotope data indicate ca 25-30% more C4 vegetation on the landscape than carbon isotope data of pedogenic carbonates from the same sequence. Our data show that the environments of early Paranthropus and Homo in this part of the Turkana Basin were primarily mixed C3-C4 to C4-dominated ecosystems. The proportion of C4-based foods in the diet of Paranthropus increases through time, broadly paralleling the increase in C4 vegetation on the landscape, whereas the diet of Homo remains unchanged. Biomarker isotope data associated with the Kokiselei archaeological site complex, which includes the site where the oldest Acheulean stone tools to date were recovered, indicate 61-97% C4 vegetation on the landscape.This article is part of the themed issue 'Major transitions in human evolution'.

The evolution of C4 grassland ecosystems in eastern Africa has been intensely studied because of the potential influence of vegetation on mammalian evolution, including that of our own lineage, hominins. Although a handful of sparse vegetation records exists from middle and early Miocene terrestrial fossil sites, there is no comprehensive record of vegetation through the Neogene. Here we present a vegetation record spanning the Neogene and Quaternary Periods that documents the appearance and subsequent expansion of C4 grasslands in eastern Africa. Carbon isotope ratios from terrestrial plant wax biomarkers deposited in marine sediments indicate constant C3 vegetation from ∼24 Ma to 10 Ma, when C4 grasses first appeared. From this time forward, C4 vegetation increases monotonically to present, with a coherent signal between marine core sites located in the Somali Basin and the Red Sea. The response of mammalian herbivores to the appearance of C4 grasses at 10 Ma is immediate, as evidenced from existing records of mammalian diets from isotopic analyses of tooth enamel. The expansion of C4 vegetation in eastern Africa is broadly mirrored by increasing proportions of C4-based foods in hominin diets, beginning at 3.8 Ma in Australopithecus and, slightly later, Kenyanthropus This continues into the late Pleistocene in Paranthropus, whereas Homo maintains a flexible diet. The biomarker vegetation record suggests the increase in open, C4 grassland ecosystems over the last 10 Ma may have operated as a selection pressure for traits and behaviors in Homo such as bipedalism, flexible diets, and complex social structure.

Holocene variations of tropical moisture balance have been ascribed to orbitally forced changes in solar insolation. If this model is correct, millennial-scale climate evolution should be antiphased between the northern and southern hemispheres, producing humid intervals in one hemisphere matched to aridity in the other. Here we show that Holocene climate trends were largely synchronous and in the same direction in the northern and southern hemisphere outer-tropical Andes, providing little support for the dominant role of insolation forcing in these regions. Today, sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean modulate rainfall variability in the outer tropical Andes of both hemispheres, and we suggest that this mechanism was pervasive throughout the Holocene. Our findings imply that oceanic forcing plays a larger role in regional South American climate than previously suspected, and that Pacific sea-surface temperatures have the capacity to induce abrupt and sustained shifts in Andean climate.

Abstract: Since the late Miocene, plants using the C4 photosynthetic pathway have increased to become major components of many tropical and subtropical ecosystems. However, the drivers for this expansion remain under debate, in part because of the varied histories of C4 vegetation on different continents. Australia hosts the highest dominance of C4 vegetation of all continents, but little is known about the history of C4 vegetation there. Carbon isotope ratios of plant waxes from scientific ocean drilling sediments off north‐western Australia reveal the onset of Australian C4 expansion at ~3.5 Ma, later than in many other regions. Pollen analysis from the same sediments reveals increasingly open C3‐dominated biomes preceding the shift to open C4‐dominated biomes by several million years. We hypothesize that the development of a summer monsoon climate beginning in the late Pliocene promoted a highly seasonal precipitation regime favorable to the expansion of C4 vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]