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Terrestrial ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle but have highly uncertain future dynamics. Ecosystem modelling that includes the scaling-up of underlying mechanistic ecological processes has the potential to improve the accuracy of future projections, while retaining key process-level detail. Over the past two decades, multiple modelling advances have been made to meet this challenge, including the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model and its derivatives including ED2 and FATES. Here, we present the global evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED v3.0), which likes its predecessors features the formal scaling of physiological processes of individual-based vegetation dynamics to ecosystem scales, together with integrated submodules of soil biogeochemistry and soil hydrology, while retaining explicit tracking of vegetation 3-D structure. This new version builds on previous versions and provides the first global calibration and evaluation, global tracking of the effects of climate and land-use change on vegetation 3-D structure, new spin-up process and input datasets, as well as numerous other advances. Model evaluation was performed with respect to a set of important benchmarking datasets, and model estimates were within observational constraints for multiple key variables including: (i) global patterns of dominant plant functional types (broadleaf vs evergreen); (ii) spatial distribution, seasonal cycle, and interannual trends of global Gross Primary Production (GPP); (iii) global interannual variability of Net Biome Production (NBP); and (iv) global patterns of vertical structure including leaf area and canopy height. With this global model version, it is now possible to simulate vegetation dynamics from local to global scales and from seconds to centuries, with a consistent mechanistic modelling framework amendable to data from multiple traditional and new remote sensing sources, including lidar.

The United States STEM workforce has yet to reflect the demographics of the larger population. This discrepancy begins at the base of the STEM pipeline with a significant lack of minority STEM K-12 teachers to serve as mentors and role models to minority students. Research has shown that minority students’ exposure to same-race teachers increased academic output and education attainment up to 32%. Unfortunately, minority teachers face a revolving-door effect: the cycle of increased recruitment countered by a high turnover amongst minority teachers compared to their white counterparts. Minority teachers who leave the profession consistently cite negative teaching environments, discrimination, and lack of support as the main drivers of their decision to quit teaching. The Maryland state legislature recently passed the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future Act, which attempts to address teacher recruitment and retention more comprehensively. Here, we go beyond the Blueprint’s baseline tools to recommend targeted strategies to recruit and retain minority STEM K-12 teachers in Maryland. Through the creation of a robust peer mentorship pipeline between new and experienced teachers, prioritization of school staff diversity and inclusion training, and the promotion of teacher autonomy, we will increase minority student education attainment and encourage the growth of a diverse STEM workforce in Maryland.

The protection and restoration of nature are critical for climate change mitigation. As such, many international initiatives have been launched to champion the implementation of nature-based climate solutions (NBCS) while supporting other societal goals. Given global momentum, it is critical that policymakers proactively define successful NBCS activities to avoid perverse incentives and harmful land-use change. We argue that effective NBCS will support clear goals and make transparent the relative costs and benefits to climate, biodiversity, and human livelihood. To do this, NBCS must be designed based on the best geospatial science and implemented alongside empowered local communities. Specifically, NBCS should be accompanied by strong benefit-sharing mechanisms that involve procedural equity. Further, where changes in land management and land-use are required, land restoration should be accompanied by financial incentives that make such restoration profitable. Carbon markets could be expanded to include land-based carbon, and auction proceeds or tax revenues could be utilized to fund restoration on private land where landowners may be required to forego other profits over the short term. NBCS will help the global community advance important societal goals if policymakers can be specific about where national goals will be implemented and who will be empowered to make decisions about their design.

Given the recent availability of high-resolution data on both current forest carbon stocks and restoration potential, the next geospatial and computational challenge is to utilize this data to iden...

Climate mitigation planning requires accurate information on forest carbon dynamics. Forest carbon monitoring and modeling systems need to step beyond the traditional Monitoring, Reporting, and Ver...

In support of the American College & University Presidents’ Climate Leadership Commitments, the University of Maryland College Park (UMD) has established a goal to become climate neutral by 2050. W...

Fifth generation (5G) wireless networks promise to provide faster and more expansive data connectivity, exceeding thresholds from previous fourth generation (4G) technology. The deployment of 5G infrastructure requires allocating additional frequencies in radio bands at 24 gigahertz (GHz), potentially contaminating neighboring remote sensing bands used for weather forecasting and prediction. The current U.S. out-of-band emissions limit at 24 GHz of -20 dBW per 200 MHz is projected to degrade meteorological forecast accuracy by up to 30%, reducing the hurricane forecast lead time by 2 to 3 days, and endangering thousands of additional lives. Under the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (Pub.L 115-25), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) must develop more accurate and timely severe weather forecasts in order to protect life and property and reduce economic risk; however, the potential out-of-band interference from the roll out of 5G threatens this aim. Given U.S. economic reliance on accurate weather prediction (estimated to be in the trillions of dollars), we propose that Congress mandate stricter noise restrictions to adequately meet requirements of the Pub.L 115-25, while minimizing disruption to 5G deployment.

Afforestation and reforestation have the potential to provide effective climate mitigation through forest carbon sequestration. Strategic reforestation activities, which account for both carbon sequestration potential (CSP) and economic opportunity, can provide attractive options for policymakers who must manage competing social and environmental goals. In particular, forest carbon pricing can incentivize reforestation on private land, but this may require landholders to forego other profits. Here, we utilize an ambitious geospatial approach to quantify economic opportunities for reforestation in the state of Maryland (USA) based on high-resolution remoting sensing, ecosystem modeling, and economic analysis. Our results identify spatially-explicit areas of economic opportunity where the potential revenue from forest carbon outcompetes the expected profit of existing cropland at the hectare scale. Specifically, we find that under a baseline economic scenario of $20 per ton of carbon (5% rental rate) and decadal average crop profitability, a transition to forest on agricultural land would be more profitable than 23.2% of cropland in Maryland under a 20 year land-use commitment. Accounting for variations in carbon and crop pricing, 5.5%–55.4% of cropland would be immediately outcompeted by expected forest carbon revenue, with the potential for an additional 0.5%–10.6% of outcompeted cropland within 20 years. Under the baseline economic scenario, an annual allocation of $5.8 million towards a carbon rental program could protect 6.93 Tg C (3.4% of the state’s total remaining CSP) on reforested croplands. This moderate yearly cost is equal to 9.7% of Maryland’s average annual auction proceeds from participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (between 2014 and 2018), and 19.3% of the average annual subsidy payments for corn, soy, and wheat allocated over the same period. This methodological approach may be useful for state governments, not-for-profit organizations, or regional climate initiatives interested in identifying strategic areas for reforestation.

The inclusion of forest carbon in climate change mitigation planning requires the development of models able to project potential future carbon stocks—a step beyond traditional monitoring, reporting and verification frameworks. Here, we updated and expanded a high-resolution forest carbon modelling approach previously developed for the state of Maryland to 11 states in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) domain, which includes Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont. In this study, we employ an updated version of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, an improved lidar initialization strategy, and an expanded calibration/validation approach. High resolution (90 m) wall-to-wall maps of present aboveground carbon, aboveground carbon sequestration potential, aboveground carbon sequestration potential gap (CSPG), and time to reach sequestration potential were produced over the RGGI domain where airborne lidar data were available, including 100% of eight states, 62% of Maine, 12% of New Jersey, and 0.65% of New York. For the eight states with complete data, an area of 228 552 km2, the contemporary forest aboveground carbon stock is estimated to be 1134 Tg C, and the forest aboveground CSPG is estimated to be larger at >1770 Tg C. Importantly, these estimates of the potential for added aboveground carbon sequestration in forests are spatially resolved, are further partitioned between continued growth of existing trees and new afforested/reforested areas, and include time estimates for realization. They are also assessed for sensitivity to potential changes in vegetation productivity and disturbance rate in response to climate change. The results from this study are intended as input into regional, state, and local planning efforts that consider future climate mitigation in forests along with other land-use considerations.

NASA Carbon Monitoring System projects NNX12AN07G, NNX14AP12G, and 80NSSC17K0710; National Science Foundation Grant No. DGE1322106

Hydrologically isolated forest pools, both vernal and permanent, are receiving increased attention in conservation because they often provide fishless habitats for forest-dwelling amphibians, reducing risk of predation to eggs and larvae. However, clarifying conservation value of such pools requires determination of whether the species they contribute to local biodiversity are unique or also present in other nearby wetlands such as freshwater marshes. We compared composition of amphibian communities in clustered pools to that of both spatially isolated pools and freshwater marshes in Illinois (USA) from 2008 to 2010 to determine (1) effects of clustering on community structure, species richness, and occupancy dynamics; (2) unique contributions of forest pools (six clustered and three isolated pools) to amphibian diversity compared to marshes (n = 6); and (3) species-specific probabilities of occupancy by wetland type. Amphibian communities differed among wetland categories, with community similarity in the same year reduced 38% by differences between marshes, clustered pools, and isolated pools. Species richness was similar in clustered pools and marshes, but lower in isolated pools. Clustered pools contributed more species (n = 10) than marshes (n = 7) or isolated pools (n = 4). Anuran species had higher probability of greater relative abundance and salamanders had greater probability of encounter at clustered pools than at isolated pools, and probabilities of species-specific site occupancy were lowest at isolated pools. Wildlife managers in Midwest USA can better understand species-specific occupancy dynamics of amphibians in different wetland categories through this analysis and can optimize local amphibian species richness through conservation of clusters of forest pools.