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Water transparency can be measured with optical instruments and estimated with satellite sensors, but such measurements have been widely available for only a few decades. Estimates of water transparency using a white disk called a Secchi disk have been made for over a century and can be used to estimate long-term trends. However, historic in situ measurements of the Secchi depth (ZSd) were irregular in space and time and are difficult to interpret in regular time series due to biases introduced by changing locations and the timing of measurements. Satellite data time series, on the other hand, have consistent resolution in both space and time but cover too short a time to resolve climate-scale trends. We normalized historic ZSd measurements in the Baltic Sea with a satellite-derived mean climatology at 5 d temporal and 4 km spatial resolutions and created a merged time series of ZSd for the last century. The mean ZSd in the Baltic Sea from 1927-2020 decreased by 4.2 ± 0.6 m at a rate of 0.045 ± 0.06 m yr-1. Most of the change happened before 1987, and a further decrease was evident primarily in the satellite data during the 1998-2008 period. After 2008, no significant trend in ZSd and or the coefficient of diffuse light attenuation was detected in the Baltic Sea. However, in some sub-basins of the Baltic Sea, the decrease in ZSd continued even after that. The decrease in spectral water transparency in recent decades was highest in the 412 nm band, indicating an increase in the concentration of chromophoric dissolved organic matter.

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4% relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5±0.5GtCyr-1 (9.3±0.5GtCyr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9±0.7GtCyr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2±0.8GtCyr-1 (37.4±2.9GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0±0.2GtCyr-1 (2.4±0.1ppmyr-1), SOCEAN was 3.0±0.4GtCyr-1, and SLAND was 2.9±1GtCyr-1, with a BIM of -0.8GtCyr-1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45±0.1ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8% (4.2% to 5.4%) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2020, but discrepancies of up to 1GtCyr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Location, specific topography, and hydrographic setting together with climate change and strong anthropogenic pressure are the main factors shaping the biogeochemical functioning and thus also the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. The recent decades have brought significant changes in the Baltic Sea. First, the rising nutrient loads from land in the second half of the 20th century led to eutrophication and spreading of hypoxic and anoxic areas, for which permanent stratification of the water column and limited ventilation of deep-water layers made favourable conditions. Since the 1980s the nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea have been continuously decreasing. This, however, has so far not resulted in significant improvements in oxygen availability in the deep regions, which has revealed a slow response time of the system to the reduction of the land-derived nutrient loads. Responsible for that is the low burial efficiency of phosphorus at anoxic conditions and its remobilization from sediments when conditions change from oxic to anoxic. This results in a stoichiometric excess of phosphorus available for organic-matter production, which promotes the growth of N2-fixing cyanobacteria and in turn supports eutrophication. This assessment reviews the available and published knowledge on the biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea. In its content, the paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, and P) external loads, their transformations in the coastal zone, changes in organic-matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability), and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. In addition to that, this paper focuses also on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure and functioning of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes. This comprehensive assessment allowed also for identifying knowledge gaps and future research needs in the field of marine biogeochemistry in the Baltic Sea.

FS MARIA S. MERIAN Fahrt MSM105 11.01.2022 – 23.02.2022 Walvis Bay – Mindelo BUSUC II Das Benguela-System im Klimawandel - Auswirkungen der Variabilität des physikalischen Antriebs auf den Kohlenstoff- und Sauerstoffhaushalt 6. Wochenbericht 14. - 20.02.2022

Marine biogeochemical models based on Redfield stoichiometry suffer from underestimating carbon fixation by primary production. The most pronounced indication of this is the overestimation of the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration and, consequently, the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in surface waters. The reduced production of organic carbon will impact most biogeochemical processes. We propose a marine biogeochemical model allowing for a non-Redfieldian carbon fixation. The updated model is able to reproduce observed partial pressure of carbon dioxide and other variables of the ecosystem, like nutrients and oxygen, reasonably well. The additional carbon uptake is realized in the model by an extracellular release (ER) of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from phytoplankton. Dissolved organic matter is subject to flocculation and the sinking particles remove carbon from surface waters. This approach is mechanistically different from existing non-Redfieldian models which allow for flexible elemental ratios for the living cells of the phytoplankton itself. The performance of the model is demonstrated as an example for the Baltic Sea. We have chosen this approach because of a reduced computational effort which is beneficial for large-scale and long-term model simulations. Budget estimates for carbon illustrate that the Baltic Sea acts as a carbon sink. For alkalinity, the Baltic Sea is a source due to internal alkalinity generation by denitrification. Owing to the underestimated model alkalinity, an unknown alkalinity source or underestimated land-based fluxes still exist.

Organic matter production by cyanobacteria blooms is a major environmental concern for the Baltic Sea as it promotes thespread of anoxic zones. Partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) measurements carried out on Ships of Opportunity (SOOP) since 2003 have proven to be a powerful tool to resolve the carbon dynamics of the blooms in space and time. However, SOOP measurements lack the possibility to directly constrain the depth–integrated net community production (NCP) due to their restriction to the sea surface. This study tackles the resulting knowledge gap through (1) providing a best–guess NCP estimatefor an individual cyanobacteria bloom based on repeated profiling measurements of pCO2 and (2) establishing an algorithm to accurately reconstruct depth–integrated NCP from surface pCO2 observations in combination with modelled temperature profiles. Goal (1) was achieved by deploying state–of–the–art sensor technology from a small–scale sailing vessel. The low–cost and flexible platform enabled observations covering an entire bloom event that occurred in July and August 2018 in the Eastern Gotland Sea. For the biogeochemical interpretation, recorded pCO2 profiles were converted to CT*, which is the dissolved inorganic carbon concentration normalised to alkalinity. We found that the investigated Nodularia–dominated bloom event had many biogeochemical characteristics in common with blooms in previous years. In particular, it lasted for about three weeks, caused a CT* drawdown of 80 μmol kg−1, and was accompanied by a sea surface temperature increase of 10 °C. The novel finding of this study is the vertical extension of the CT* drawdown up to 12 m water depth. Integration of the CT* drawdown across this depth and correction for vertical fluxes permit a best–guess NCP estimate of ~1.2 mol–C m−2. Addressing goal (2), we combined modelled hydrographical profiles with surface pCO2 observations recorded by SOOP Finnmaid within the study area. Introducing the temperature penetration depth (TPD) as a new parameter to integrate SOOP observations across depth, we achieve a reconstructed NCP estimate that agrees to the best–guess within 10 %. Applying the TPD approach to almost two decades of surface pCO2 observations available for the Baltic Sea bears the potential to provide new insights into the control and long–term trends of cyanobacteria NCP. This understanding is key for an effective design and monitoring of conservation measures aiming at a Good Environmental Status of the Baltic Sea.

The ocean and inland waters are two separate regimes, with concentrations in greenhouse gases differing on orders of magnitude between them. Together, they create the land–ocean aquatic continuum (LOAC), which comprises itself largely of areas with little to no data with regards to understanding the global carbon system. Reasons for this include remote and inaccessible sample locations, often tedious methods that require collection of water samples and subsequent analysis in the lab, and the complex interplay of biological, physical and chemical processes. This has led to large inconsistencies, increasing errors and has inevitably lead to potentially false upscaling. A set-up of multiple pre-existing oceanographic sensors allowing for highly detailed and accurate measurements was successfully deployed in oceanic to remote inland regions over extreme concentration ranges. The set-up consists of four sensors simultaneously measuring pCO2, pCH4 (both flow-through, membrane-based non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) or tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS) sensors), O2 and a thermosalinograph at high resolution from the same water source. The flexibility of the system allowed for deployment from freshwater to open ocean conditions on varying vessel sizes, where we managed to capture day–night cycles, repeat transects and also delineate small-scale variability. Our work demonstrates the need for increased spatiotemporal monitoring and shows a way of homogenizing methods and data streams in the ocean and limnic realms.

The ocean and inland waters are two separate regimes, with concentrations in greenhouse gases differing on orders of magnitude between them. Together, they create the land–ocean aquatic continuum (LOAC), which comprises itself largely of areas with little to no data with regards to understanding the global carbon system. Reasons for this include remote and inaccessible sample locations, often tedious methods that require collection of water samples and subsequent analysis in the lab, and the complex interplay of biological, physical and chemical processes. This has led to large inconsistencies, increasing errors and has inevitably lead to potentially false upscaling. A set-up of multiple pre-existing oceanographic sensors allowing for highly detailed and accurate measurements was successfully deployed in oceanic to remote inland regions over extreme concentration ranges. The set-up consists of four sensors simultaneously measuring pCO2, pCH4 (both flow-through, membrane-based non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) or tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS) sensors), O2 and a thermosalinograph at high resolution from the same water source. The flexibility of the system allowed for deployment from freshwater to open ocean conditions on varying vessel sizes, where we managed to capture day–night cycles, repeat transects and also delineate small-scale variability. Our work demonstrates the need for increased spatiotemporal monitoring and shows a way of homogenizing methods and data streams in the ocean and limnic realms.

We developed a simple method to refine existing open-ocean maps and extend them towards different coastal seas. Using a multi-linear regression we produced monthly maps of surface ocean fCO2 in the northern European coastal seas (the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Norwegian Coast and the Barents Sea) covering a time period from 1998 to 2016. A comparison with gridded Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) v5 data revealed mean biases and standard deviations of 0 ± 26 µatm in the North Sea, 0 ± 16 µatm along the Norwegian Coast, 0 ± 19 µatm in the Barents Sea and 2 ± 42 µatm in the Baltic Sea. We used these maps to investigate trends in fCO2, pH and air–sea CO2 flux. The surface ocean fCO2 trends are smaller than the atmospheric trend in most of the studied regions. The only exception to this is the western part of the North Sea, where sea surface fCO2 increases by 2 µatm yr−1, which is similar to the atmospheric trend. The Baltic Sea does not show a significant trend. Here, the variability was much larger than the expected trends. Consistently, the pH trends were smaller than expected for an increase in fCO2 in pace with the rise of atmospheric CO2 levels. The calculated air–sea CO2 fluxes revealed that most regions were net sinks for CO2. Only the southern North Sea and the Baltic Sea emitted CO2 to the atmosphere. Especially in the northern regions the sink strength increased during the studied period.

Organic matter production by cyanobacteria blooms is a major environmental concern for the Baltic Sea, as it promotes the spread of anoxic zones. Partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) measurements carried out on Ships of Opportunity (SOOP) since 2003 have proven to be a powerful tool to resolve the carbon dynamics of the blooms in space and time. However, SOOP measurements lack the possibility to directly constrain depth-integrated net community production (NCP) in moles of carbon per surface area due to their restriction to the sea surface. This study tackles the knowledge gap through (1) providing an NCP best guess for an individual cyanobacteria bloom based on repeated profiling measurements of pCO2 and (2) establishing an algorithm to accurately reconstruct depth-integrated NCP from surface pCO2 observations in combination with modelled temperature profiles. Goal (1) was achieved by deploying state-of-the-art sensor technology from a small-scale sailing vessel. The low-cost and flexible platform enabled observations covering an entire bloom event that occurred in July–August 2018 in the Eastern Gotland Sea. For the biogeochemical interpretation, recorded pCO2 profiles were converted to C∗T , which is the dissolved inorganic carbon concentration normalised to alkalinity. We found that the investigated bloom event was dominated by Nodularia and had many biogeochemical characteristics in common with blooms in previous years. In particular, it lasted for about 3 weeks, caused a C∗T drawdown of 90 µmol kg−1, and was accompanied by a sea surface temperature increase of 10 ∘C. The novel finding of this study is the vertical extension of the C∗T drawdown up to the compensation depth located at around 12 m. Integration of the C∗T drawdown across this depth and correction for vertical fluxes leads to an NCP best guess of ∼1.2 mol m−2 over the productive period. Addressing goal (2), we combined modelled hydrographical profiles with surface pCO2 observations recorded by SOOP Finnmaid within the study area. Introducing the temperature penetration depth (TPD) as a new parameter to integrate SOOP observations across depth, we achieve an NCP reconstruction that agrees to the best guess within 10 %, which is considerably better than the reconstruction based on a classical mixed-layer depth constraint. Applying the TPD approach to almost 2 decades of surface pCO2 observations available for the Baltic Sea bears the potential to provide new insights into the control and long-term trends of cyanobacteria NCP. This understanding is key for an effective design and monitoring of conservation measures aiming at a Good Environmental Status of the Baltic Sea., Biogeosciences, 18 (17), ISSN:1726-4170

Air–sea gas fluxes are commonly estimated using wind-based parametrizations of the gas transfer velocity. However, neglecting gas exchange forcing mechanisms – other than wind speed – may lead to large uncertainties in the flux estimates and the carbon budgets, in particular, in heterogeneous environments such as marginal seas and coastal areas. In this study we investigated the impact of including relevant processes to the air–sea CO2 flux parametrization for the Baltic Sea. We used six parametrizations of the gas transfer velocity to evaluate the effect of precipitation, water-side convection, and surfactants on the net CO2 flux at regional and sub-regional scale. The differences both in the mean CO2 fluxes and the integrated net fluxes were small between the different cases. However, the implications on the seasonal variability were shown to be significant. The inter-annual and spatial variability were also found to be associated with the forcing mechanisms evaluated in the study. In addition to wind, water-side convection was the most relevant parameter controlling the air–sea gas exchange at seasonal and inter-annual scales. The effect of precipitation and surfactants seemed negligible in terms of the inter-annual variability. The effect of water-side convection and surfactants resulted in a reduction of the downward fluxes, while precipitation was the only parameter that resulted in an enhancement of the net uptake in the Baltic Sea.

The direction and magnitude of carbon dioxide fluxes between the atmosphere and the sea are regulated by the gradient in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) across the air–sea interface. Typically, observations of pCO2 at the sea surface are carried out by using research vessels and ships of opportunity, which usually do not resolve the diurnal cycle of pCO2 at a given location. This study evaluates the magnitude and driving processes of the diurnal cycle of pCO2 in a coastal region of the Baltic Sea. We present pCO2 data from July 2018 to June 2019 measured in the vicinity of the island of Utö at the outer edge of the Archipelago Sea, and quantify the relevant physical, biological, and chemical processes controlling pCO2. The highest monthly median of diurnal pCO2 variability (31 µatm) was observed in August and predominantly driven by biological processes. Biological fixation and mineralization of carbon led to sinusoidal diurnal pCO2 variations, with a maximum in the morning and a minimum in the afternoon. Compared with the biological carbon transformations, the impacts of air–sea fluxes and temperature changes on pCO2 were small, with their contributions to the monthly medians of diurnal pCO2 variability being up to 12 and 5 µatm, respectively. During upwelling events, short-term pCO2 variability (up to 500 µatm within a day) largely exceeded the usual diurnal cycle. If the net annual air–sea flux of carbon dioxide at our study site and for the sampled period is calculated based on a data subset that consists of only one regular measurement per day, the bias in the net exchange depends on the sampling time and can amount up to ±12 %. This finding highlights the importance of continuous surface pCO2 measurements at fixed locations for the assessment of the short-term variability of the carbonate system and the correct determination of air–sea CO2 fluxes., Ocean Science, 17 (6), ISSN:1812-0784, ISSN:1812-0792

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions will – unless reduced – move the Baltic Sea towards a state where acidification leads to changes in species composition, potentially influencing ecosystem functioning. Model simulations indicate that acidification in the Baltic Sea generally follows the same trajectory as the open oceans, with a pH decline of 0.6 units by year 2200 in the worst-case scenario. The Baltic Sea is highly influenced by its catchment areas, which means that acidification trends are generally more complex than in the open ocean. Improved coverage of acidification monitoring is necessary to broaden the understanding of current trends, improve the capacity to predict future changes, and as an added value provide insight into productivity patterns and eutrophication trends. An indicator for acidification in the Baltic Sea is currently under development.

The direction and magnitude of carbon dioxide exchange between the atmosphere and the sea is regulated by their difference in partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2). Typically, observations of pCO2 are carried out by using research vessels and voluntary observing ships which cannot easily detect the diurnal cycle of pCO2 at a given location. This study evaluates the magnitude and driving processes of the diurnal cycle of pCO2 in a coastal region of the Baltic Sea during the different seasons.We present pCO2 data from July 2018–June 2019 carried out in the vicinity of the island of Utö in the Archipelago Sea and quantify the relevant physical, biological and chemical processes affecting pCO2. The highest monthly median diurnal pCO2 peak-to-peak amplitude (31 μatm) was observed in August. This high diurnal variation was found to be related predominantly to biological processes. The biological transformations of carbon generated a sinusoidal diurnal pCO2 variation, with a maximum in the morning and a minimum in the afternoon. Compared to the biological carbon transformations, the effect of air sea exchange of carbon dioxide and the effect of temperature changes on pCO2 are smaller, with their monthly median peak-to-peak amplitudes were up to 12 and 5 μatm, respectively. Single diurnal peak-to-peak amplitudes can be significantly larger (up to 500 μatm), during upwelling. If the net exchange of carbon dioxide between the sea and atmosphere on our study site and sampling period is calculated based on a data set that consists of only one measurement per day, the error in the budget depends on the sampling time and can be up to ±12 %.

Dataset from Uto Atmospheric and Marine Research Station (59°46’55” N, 21°21’27” E) between July 2018 and June 2019 This is a dataset for the publication: Martti Honkanen, Jens Daniel Müller, Jukka Seppälä, Gregor Rehder, Sami Kielosto, Pasi Ylöstalo, Timo Mäkelä, Juha Hatakka, and Lauri Laakso: Diurnal cycle of the CO2 system in the coastal region of the Baltic Sea (Submitted to Ocean Science 2020/11). The dataset consists of 1 hour average values of the variables used in the paper. The data are in a comma separated file that has blanks as the nan values.

Comparatively the ocean and inland waters are two separate worlds, with concentrations in greenhouse gases having orders of magnitude in difference between the two. Together they create the Land-Ocean Aquatic Continuum (LOAC), which comprises itself largely of areas with little to no data in regards to understanding the global carbon system. Reasons for this include remote and inaccessible sample locations, often tedious methods that require collection of water samples and subsequent analysis in the lab, as well as the complex interplay of biological, physical and chemical processes. This has led to large inconsistencies, increasing errors and inevitably leading to potentially false upscaling. Here we demonstrate successful deployment in oceanic to remote inland regions, over extreme concentration ranges with multiple pre-existing oceanographic sensors combined set-up, allowing for highly detailed and accurate measurements. The set-up consists of sensors measuring pCO2, pCH4 (both flow-through, membrane-based NDIR or TDLAS sensors), O2, and a thermosalinograph at high-resolution from the same water source simultaneously. The flexibility of the system allowed deployment from freshwater to open ocean conditions on varying vessel sizes, where we managed to capture day-night cycles, repeat transects and also delineate small scale variability. Our work demonstrates the need for increased spatiotemporal monitoring, and shows a way to homogenize methods and data streams in the ocean and limnic realms.

We developed a simple method to refine existing open ocean maps towards different coastal seas. Using a multi linear regression we produced monthly maps of surface ocean fCO2 in the northern European coastal seas (North Sea, Baltic Sea, Norwegian Coast and in the Barents Sea) covering a time period from 1998 to 2016. A comparison with gridded SOCAT v5 data revealed standard deviations of the residuals 0 ± 26 μatm in the North Sea, 0 ± 16 μatm along the Norwegian Coast, 0 ± 19 μatm in the Barents Sea, and 2 ± 42 μatm in the Baltic Sea.We used these maps as basis to investigate trends in fCO2, pH and air-sea CO2 flux. The surface ocean fCO2 trends are smaller than the atmospheric trend in most of the studied region. Only the western part of the North Sea is showing an increase in fCO2 close to 2 μatm yr−1, which is similar to the atmospheric trend. The Baltic Sea does not show a significant trend. Here, the variability was much larger than possibly observable trends. Consistently, the pH trends were smaller than expected for an increase of fCO2 in pace with the rise of atmospheric CO2 levels. The calculated air-sea CO2 fluxes revealed that most regions were net sinks for CO2. Only the southern North Sea and the Baltic Sea emitted CO2 to the atmosphere. Especially in the northern regions the sink strength increased during the studied period.

The European Research Infrastructure Consortium “Integrated Carbon Observation System” (ICOS) aims at delivering high quality greenhouse gas (GHG) observations and derived data products (e.g., regional GHG-flux maps) for constraining the GHG balance on a European level, on a sustained long-term basis. The marine domain (ICOS-Oceans) currently consists of 11 Ship of Opportunity lines (SOOP – Ship of Opportunity Program) and 10 Fixed Ocean Stations (FOSs) spread across European waters, including the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and the Barents, North, Baltic, and Mediterranean Seas. The stations operate in a harmonized and standardized way based on community-proven protocols and methods for ocean GHG observations, improving operational conformity as well as quality control and assurance of the data. This enables the network to focus on long term research into the marine carbon cycle and the anthropogenic carbon sink, while preparing the network to include other GHG fluxes. ICOS data are processed on a near real-time basis and will be published on the ICOS Carbon Portal (CP), allowing monthly estimates of CO2 air-sea exchange to be quantified for European waters. ICOS establishes transparent operational data management routines following the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) guiding principles allowing amongst others reproducibility, interoperability, and traceability. The ICOS-Oceans network is actively integrating with the atmospheric (e.g., improved atmospheric measurements onboard SOOP lines) and ecosystem (e.g., oceanic direct gas flux measurements) domains of ICOS, and utilizes techniques developed by the ICOS Central Facilities and the CP. There is a strong interaction with the international ocean carbon cycle community to enhance interoperability and harmonize data flow. The future vision of ICOS-Oceans includes ship-based ocean survey sections to obtain a three-dimensional understanding of marine carbon cycle processes and optimize the existing network design. publishedVersion

In Baltic TRANSCOAST we study the physical, biogeochemical, and biological processes at the land-ocean interface. The coastal zone is heavily impacted by various human activities as well as by geomorphological and climatic processes – on both the land and the sea side. Land-sea interactions at low lying coastal areas that are often dominated by peatlands, and are a common feature along the Baltic Sea coast, are not well understood. The core hypothesis of Baltic TRANSCOAST is that the shallow sea and the terrestrial peatland have a mutual impact on each other with far-reaching consequences for water and energy fluxes, matter cycling and the biota. The interdisciplinary research focuses on the significance of flooding frequency and duration on biogeochemical processes by concentrating the investigations on three comparison sites. We are assessing how changing boundary conditions (such as climate and land use) affect the hydrology, biota and biogeochemical processes in coastal wetlands and the adjacent marine ecosystem.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important atmospheric trace gas involved in tropospheric warming and stratospheric ozone depletion. Estimates of the global ocean contribution to N2O emissions average 21% (range: 10 to 53%). Ongoing environmental changes such as warming, deoxygenation and acidification are affecting oceanic N2O cycling and emissions to the atmosphere. International activities over the last decades aimed at improving estimates of global N2O emissions, including (i) the MarinE MethanE and NiTrous Oxide database (MEMENTO) for archiving of quality-controlled data, and (ii) a recent large-scale inter-laboratory comparison by Working Group 143 of the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR). To reduce uncertainties in oceanic N2O emission estimates and to characterize the spatial and temporal variability in N2O distributions in a changing ocean, we propose the establishment of a harmonized N2O Observation Network (N2O-ON) combining discrete and continuous data from various platforms. The network will integrate observations obtained by calibrated techniques, using time series measurements at fixed stations and repeated hydrographic sections on voluntary observing ships and research vessels. In addition to exploiting existing oceanographic infrastructure, we propose the establishment of central calibration facilities in selected international laboratories to improve accuracy, and ensure standardization and comparability of N2O measurements. Final data products will include a harmonized global N2O concentration and emission fields for use in model validation and projections of future oceanic N2O emissions, to inform the global research community and policy makers.

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).

Autonomous systems measuring the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in surface waters on commercial carrier ships (Voluntary Observing Ship, VOS), which allows for high spatiotemporal data coverage, are a major component of the Ocean Thematic Centre (OTC) data stream. Currently, ICOS operates lines in the Atlantic, North Sea and the Baltic. All lines are determining pCO2 by measuring CO2 in air that has been equilibrated with seawater. As part of the European H2020 project RINGO (https://www.icos-ri.eu/ringo), we are evaluating the possibility of using VOS to expand the atmospheric network. We will provide technical solutions for three different settings and approaches, and assess the added value for the atmospheric observation network. Two systems are designed as stand-alone modules for continuous atmospheric CO2 and CH4 measurements, following the technological requirements defined by the ATC, and will be operated in the Baltic (high anthropogenic influence) and on a line between France and Brazil (clean marine air, large temperature and humidity gradient). A second approach is using the existing instrumentation for seawater measurements (North Atlantic), which we aim to improve in order to make these measurements usable for the atmospheric research community. This is an effort that connects the ocean research community with the Central Analytical Laboratories (CAL; testing an extended range of standard gases, providing flask sampling opportunity), the Atmospheric Thematic Centre (ATC; work on data streams that can be digested by the ATC system), and the modelling community (identifying useful sampling strategies). Here we present a status update of the ongoing work, which is a joined effort of the atmospheric and ocean community within ICOS and relying on the expertise of both fields.