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6. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, Alkemade, Rob, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Alkemade, Rob

Abstract

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Published
2024

7. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Environmental Sciences, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, Alkemade, Rob, Environmental Sciences, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Alkemade, Rob

Published
2024

9. Simulating land use changes, sediment yields, and pesticide use in the Upper Paraguay River Basin: Implications for conservation of the Pantanal wetland

Author

Johnson, Matthew, de Oliveira Roque, Fabio, Padovania, Carlos, Corbi, Juliano, Covich, Alan P., Eaton, Donald, Moraes Tomas, Walfrido, Valente-Neto, Francisco, Piovezan Borges, Ana Claudia, Pinho, Alexandra, Barufatii, Alexeia, do Amara Crispim, Bruno, Dettogni Guariento, Rafael, Helena da Silva Andrade, Maria, Tavares Rezende-Filho, Ary, Portela, Rodolfo, Divina, Marcia, Cordeiro-Estrela, Pedro, Desbiez, Arnaud, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Yon, Lisa, Yon, Lisa, and Johnson, Matthew

Subjects
Bio/Medical/Health - Veterinary Medicine, Beacon - Future Food
Abstract

As a consequence of accelerated and excessive use of pesticides in tropical regions, wilderness areas are under threat; this includes the Pantanal wetlands in the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB). Using a Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) modelling approach, we estimated the expected pesticide load in the Pantanal and the surrounding highlands region for 2050 under three potential scenarios: i) business as usual (BAU), ii) acceleration of anthropogenic changes (ACC), and iii) use of buffer zones around protected areas (BPA). The quantity of pesticides used in the UPRB is predicted to vary depending on the scenario, from an overall increase by as much as 7.4% in the UPRB in the BAU scenario (increasing by 38.5% in the floodplain and 6.6% in the highlands), to an increase of 11.2% in the UPRB (over current use) under the AAC scenario (increasing by 53.8% in the floodplain and 7.5% in the highlands). Much higher usage of pesticides is predicted in sub-basins with greater agricultural areas within major hydrographic basins. Changing the current trajectory of land management in the UPRB is a complex challenge. It will require a substantial shift from current practices, and will involve the implementation of a number of strategies, ranging from the development of new technologies to achieve changes in land use policies, to increasing dialogue between farmers, ranchers, the scientific community, and local or traditional communities through participatory learning processes and outreach.

Published
2021

11. Emerging threats from deforestation and forest fragmentation in the Wallacea centre of endemism

Author

Voigt, Maria, Supriatna, Jatna, Deere, Nicolas J., Kastanya, Agustinus, Mitchell, Simon L., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Santika, Truly, Siregar, Rondang, Tasirin, John, Widyanto, Adi, Winarni, Nurul, Zakaria, Zuliyanto, Sonny, Mumbunan, Davies, Zoe G., Struebig, Matthew J., Voigt, Maria, Supriatna, Jatna, Deere, Nicolas J., Kastanya, Agustinus, Mitchell, Simon L., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Santika, Truly, Siregar, Rondang, Tasirin, John, Widyanto, Adi, Winarni, Nurul, Zakaria, Zuliyanto, Sonny, Mumbunan, Davies, Zoe G., and Struebig, Matthew J.

Abstract

The Wallacea biogeographic region of Sulawesi, the Moluccas and Lesser Sunda, is globally renowned for exceptional endemism, but is currently emerging as a development frontier in Indonesia. We assessed patterns and drivers of forest loss and fragmentation across the region, and used dynamic deforestation models to project future deforestation to 2053. Up to 10,231 km2 was deforested between 2000 and 2018, and a further 49,570 km2 is expected to be lost by 2053, with annual deforestation rates ranging between 0.09% and 2.17% in different sub-regions (average: 1.23%). Key Biodiversity Areas (priority sites for endemic and threatened biodiversity) are particularly vulnerable to deforestation if they are small, coastal and unprotected. Sub-regional variation in deforestation patterns and drivers must be acknowledged if conservation interventions are to be targeted and effective. We provide a valuable baseline from which to monitor Wallacea’s new development course, as Indonesia undergoes profound policy changes that will provide both challenges and opportunities for environmental governance and conservation.

Published
2021

12. Co-Evolution of Emerging Multi-Cities: Rates, Patterns and Driving Policies Revealed by Continuous Change Detection and Classification of Landsat Data

Author

Liu, Maochou, primary, Liu, Shuguang, additional, Ning, Ying, additional, Zhu, Yu, additional, Valbuena, Rubén, additional, Guo, Rui, additional, Li, Yuanyuan, additional, Tang, Wenxi, additional, Mo, Dengkui, additional, Rosa, Isabel M.D., additional, Kutia, Mykola, additional, and Hu, Wenmin, additional

Published
2020
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13. Capacitando profissionais para o desenvolvimento de cenários e modelos em biodiversidade e serviços ecossistêmicos

Author

Rosa, Isabel M.D., Lundquist, Carolyn J., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Drummond de Castro, Paula F., and Joly, Carlos A.

Subjects
Environmental Systems Analysis, Models, Scenarios, Milieusysteemanalyse, IPBES, Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services, Nature Futures
Abstract

Extensive anthropogenic activities driven by the demand for agriculture and forestry products have led to dramatic reductions in biodiversity worldwide and significant changes in the provisioning of ecosystem services. These trends are expected to continue in the future as the world continues to develop without much consideration of the role that nature plays in sustaining human livelihoods. Scenarios and models can be important tools to help policy-and decision-makers foresee the impact of their decisions; thus, increasing capacity in creating such models and scenarios is of utmost importance. However, postgraduate training schools that focus on this topic are still rare. Here we present and reflect on the experience of the São Paulo School of Advanced Science on Scenarios and Modelling on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services to Support Human Well-Being (SPSAS Scenarios). In addition, we introduce the Special Issue of Biota Neotropica that resulted from the activities taking place during the SPSAS Scenarios. In total, nine case studies emerged from the activities carried out during SPSAS Scenarios. These focused on a variety of ecosystems, their current drivers of change and expected trends, as well as on the development of alternative positive scenarios applying the recently developed Nature Futures Framework. We emphasize the need to increase capacity in scenario and modelling skills in order to address some of the existing gaps in producing policy-relevant scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Published
2020

14. Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Author

Environmental Sciences, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Purvis, Andy, Alkemade, Rob, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Ferrier, Simon, Guerra, Carlos A., Hurtt, George, Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Martins, Inês S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., van Vuuren, Detlef, Pereira, Henrique M., Environmental Sciences, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Purvis, Andy, Alkemade, Rob, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Ferrier, Simon, Guerra, Carlos A., Hurtt, George, Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Martins, Inês S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., van Vuuren, Detlef, and Pereira, Henrique M.

Published
2020

16. Report on the Workshop ‘Next Steps in Developing Nature Futures’ : Meeting of the expert group on Scenarios and Models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, June 2018, the Hague, the Netherlands

Author

Schoolenberg, Machteld, den Belder, E., Okayasu, Sana, Alkemade, J.R.M., Lundquist, Carolyn J., Pereira, Henrique Miguel, Chettri, Nakul, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Hauck, Jennifer, Hendriks, Rob J.J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E., Kim, Hye Jin, Kolomytsev, Grigoriy, Kuiper, Jan, Leadley, Paul, Metzger, Jean Paul, Ninan, K.N., Palomo, Gabriela, Pereira, Laura, Pichs, Ramon, Popp, Alexander, Ravera, Federica, Rondinini, Carlo, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Sathyapalan, Jyothis, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Subjects
Environmental Systems Analysis, Public Administration and Policy, Land Use and Food Security, Milieusysteemanalyse, Life Science, Bestuurskunde, Landgebruik en Voedselzekerheid, Agrosysteemkunde, Agrosystems Research
Published
2018

17. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

Author

Rosa, Isabel M.D., Pereira, Henrique M., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Akcakaya, H. Resit, Den Belder, Eefje, Fazel, Asghar M., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harfoot, Mike, Harhash, Khaled A., Harrison, Paula A., Hauck, Jennifer, Hendriks, Rob J.J., Hernández, Gladys, Jetz, Walter, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I., Kim, Hyejin, King, Nicholas, Kok, Marcel T.J., Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O., Lazarova, Tanya, Leadley, Paul, Lundquist, Carolyn J., García Márquez, Jaime, Meyer, Carsten, Navarro, Laetitia M., Nesshöver, Carsten, Ngo, Hien T., Ninan, Karachepone N., Palomo, Maria G., Pereira, Laura M., Peterson, Garry D., Pichs, Ramon, Popp, Alexander, Purvis, Andy, Ravera, Federica, Rondinini, Carlo, Sathyapalan, Jyothis, Schipper, Aafke M., Seppelt, Ralf, Settele, Josef, Sitas, Nadia, Van Vuuren, Detlef, and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Ecology, Taverne, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Published
2017

19. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author

Kim, Hyejin, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Alkemade, Rob, Leadley, Paul, Hurtt, George, Popp, Alexander, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Caton, Emma, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, De Palma, Adriana, Di Fulvio, Fulvio, Di Marco, Moreno, Espinoza, Felipe, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gonzalez, Ricardo E., Gueguen, Maya, Guerra, Carlos, Harfoot, Mike, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Martins, Ines S., Matsui, Tetsuya, Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Sharp, Richard, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Kim, Hyejin, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Alkemade, Rob, Leadley, Paul, Hurtt, George, Popp, Alexander, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Caton, Emma, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, De Palma, Adriana, Di Fulvio, Fulvio, Di Marco, Moreno, Espinoza, Felipe, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gonzalez, Ricardo E., Gueguen, Maya, Guerra, Carlos, Harfoot, Mike, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Martins, Ines S., Matsui, Tetsuya, Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Sharp, Richard, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Thuiller, Wilfried, and Titeux, Nicolas

Abstract

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

Published
2018

20. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author

Environmental Sciences, Kim, Hyejin, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Alkemade, Rob, Leadley, Paul, Hurtt, George, Popp, Alexander, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Caton, Emma, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, De Palma, Adriana, Di Fulvio, Fulvio, Di Marco, Moreno, Espinoza, Felipe, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gonzalez, Ricardo E., Gueguen, Maya, Guerra, Carlos, Harfoot, Mike, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Martins, Ines S., Matsui, Tetsuya, Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Sharp, Richard, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Environmental Sciences, Kim, Hyejin, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Alkemade, Rob, Leadley, Paul, Hurtt, George, Popp, Alexander, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Caton, Emma, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, De Palma, Adriana, Di Fulvio, Fulvio, Di Marco, Moreno, Espinoza, Felipe, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gonzalez, Ricardo E., Gueguen, Maya, Guerra, Carlos, Harfoot, Mike, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Martins, Ines S., Matsui, Tetsuya, Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Sharp, Richard, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Thuiller, Wilfried, and Titeux, Nicolas

Published
2018

21. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

Author

Environmental Sciences, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Pereira, Henrique M., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Akcakaya, H. Resit, Den Belder, Eefje, Fazel, Asghar M., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harfoot, Mike, Harhash, Khaled A., Harrison, Paula A., Hauck, Jennifer, Hendriks, Rob J.J., Hernández, Gladys, Jetz, Walter, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I., Kim, Hyejin, King, Nicholas, Kok, Marcel T.J., Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O., Lazarova, Tanya, Leadley, Paul, Lundquist, Carolyn J., García Márquez, Jaime, Meyer, Carsten, Navarro, Laetitia M., Nesshöver, Carsten, Ngo, Hien T., Ninan, Karachepone N., Palomo, Maria G., Pereira, Laura M., Peterson, Garry D., Pichs, Ramon, Popp, Alexander, Purvis, Andy, Ravera, Federica, Rondinini, Carlo, Sathyapalan, Jyothis, Schipper, Aafke M., Seppelt, Ralf, Settele, Josef, Sitas, Nadia, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Environmental Sciences, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Pereira, Henrique M., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Akcakaya, H. Resit, Den Belder, Eefje, Fazel, Asghar M., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harfoot, Mike, Harhash, Khaled A., Harrison, Paula A., Hauck, Jennifer, Hendriks, Rob J.J., Hernández, Gladys, Jetz, Walter, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I., Kim, Hyejin, King, Nicholas, Kok, Marcel T.J., Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O., Lazarova, Tanya, Leadley, Paul, Lundquist, Carolyn J., García Márquez, Jaime, Meyer, Carsten, Navarro, Laetitia M., Nesshöver, Carsten, Ngo, Hien T., Ninan, Karachepone N., Palomo, Maria G., Pereira, Laura M., Peterson, Garry D., Pichs, Ramon, Popp, Alexander, Purvis, Andy, Ravera, Federica, Rondinini, Carlo, Sathyapalan, Jyothis, Schipper, Aafke M., Seppelt, Ralf, Settele, Josef, Sitas, Nadia, and Van Vuuren, Detlef

Published
2017

22. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author

Kim, HyeJin, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Alkemade, Rob, Leadley, Paul, Hurtt, George, Popp, Alexander, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Caton, Emma, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, De Palma, Adriana, Di Fulvio, Fulvio, Di Marco, Moreno, Espinoza, Felipe, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gonzalez, Ricardo E., Gueguen, Maya, Guerra, Carlos, Harfoot, Mike, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hill, Samantha L.L., Hoskins, Andrew J., Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Martins, Ines S., Matsui, Tetsuya, Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Sharp, Richard, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Pereira, Henrique M.

Subjects
13. Climate action, 11. Sustainability, 15. Life on land
Abstract

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios., Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (11), ISSN:1991-9603, ISSN:1991-959X

23. Evaluating Forest Protection Strategies: A Comparison of Land-Use Systems to Preventing Forest Loss in Tanzania.

Author

Rosa, Isabel M.D., Rentsch, Dennis, and Hopcraft, J. Grant C.

Abstract

Understanding the effects of forest management strategies is especially important to avoid unregulated natural resource extraction that leads to ecosystem degradation. In addition to the loss of crucial forest services, inefficiencies at converting these natural resources into economic gain for people ultimately exacerbates poverty. Therefore, it is important to know which conservation strategies have proven to be effective in preventing ecosystem degradation and thus be encouraged in future management plans. Here, we used a high-resolution remotely sensed dataset spanning 15 years to study forest cover dynamics across various protected areas in Tanzania. Our findings highlight particular management approaches more effective in preventing forest cover loss and promote forest cover gain, and provide valuable information for conservation efforts. Results show that National Parks have the least forest cover loss, whereas multiple-use Game Controlled Areas have the highest rates of forest loss. In fact, results suggest that these multiple use areas tend to lose more forest cover than areas with no protection or management status at all. These findings suggest the need for more effective strategies for enforcing the existing policies to ensure that socio-economic benefits to local communities are maximized and national interests are sustained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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