10 results on '"Rosnes, Orvika"'
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2. Klimaendring utfordrer det norske matsystemet. Kunnskapsgrunnlag for vurdering av klimarisiko i verdikjeder med matsystemet som case
- Author
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Bardalen, Arne, Pettersen, Ivar, Dombu, Siri Voll, Rosnes, Orvika, Mittenzwei, Klaus, and Skulstad, Andreas
- Subjects
Klimarisiko ,verdikjeder ,matsystem - Abstract
NIBIO RAPPORT 8 (110) 7 Sammendrag Klimaendringene ventes å føre til høyere temperaturer, endringer i nedbørsmengder og -fordeling, stigende havnivå og hyppigere ekstremværhendelser. Globale matsystemer vil bli utsatt for klimarelaterte påkjenninger i form av reduserte og mindre stabile avlinger, svakere og mer usikker produktivitetsutvikling og økt forekomst av planteskadegjørere og husdyrsykdommer. Dermed truer klimaendringene en sentral samfunnsfunksjon også for Norge. Effektene er usikre, og når de vil inntreffe er også usikkert. Vi vurderer at store svingninger i global matvareproduksjon kan utfordre matsikkerheten for deler av den norske befolkningen, og i ekstreme tilfeller kreve rasjonering av knappe matressurser. Sviktende matsikkerhet dreier seg ikke bare om mangel på mat, men omfatter også svikt i matens kvalitet som kan ha negative konsekvenser for ernæring, helse og velvære. Risikoen, både muligheter for tap og ekstra gevinster på primærleddene, vil øke. Til tross for at vi har et matsystem med stor tilpasningsevne til fluktuasjoner i internasjonale forhold og nasjonale avlinger, må vi forvente at forbrukernes tillit til matsystem og matpolitikk blir satt på alvorlige prøver. Dette begrunner aktiv, forebyggende klimatilpasning og andre tiltak for å styrke matsystemenes motstandskraft.
- Published
- 2022
3. Klimaendring utfordrer det norske matsystemet. Sammendragsrapport
- Author
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Bardalen, Arne, Pettersen, Ivar, Dombu, Siri Voll, Rosnes, Orvika, Mittenzwei, Klaus, and Skulstad, Andreas
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Klimarisiko ,Climate Risk ,verdikjeder ,Food System ,Value Chain - Abstract
Rapporten «Klimaendring utfordrer det norske matsystemet» er en utredning om klimaendringer og verdikjeder med matsystemet som case. Utredningen er gjort på oppdrag fra Miljødirektoratet, som et ledd i arbeidet med å styrke kunnskapsgrunnlaget om klimaendringenes konsekvenser for natur og samfunn i Norge. Rapporten drøfter hvordan klimaendringene kan påvirke matproduksjon og verdikjeder fra sjø og jord til bord ved midten av århundret. For analysen av risiko legger vi i denne rapporten en svært høy utslippsbane til grunn. Med dette som forutsetning skisserer vi scenarier for det norske matsystemet med en temperaturøkning på 3°C før midten av århundret. Dette er en utvikling i øvre del av det mulighetsområdet som er skissert av FNs klimapanel. Et slikt scenario vil medføre alvorlige påkjenninger nasjonalt og globalt, og gir derfor en krevende, men mulig, ramme for å utrede motstandskraft – resiliens – i det norske matsystemet. Utredningen er gjennomført av tre forskningsmiljøer – NIBIO, Vista Analyse og Ruralis – alle med erfaring fra klimarelatert natur- og samfunnsfaglig forskning og utredning. Arne Bardalen og Siri Voll Dombu har ledet og koordinert arbeidet. Ivar Pettersen, Klaus Mittenzwei og Orvika Rosnes har vært faglige bidragsytere gjennom det meste av analysen. Orvika Rosnes har, sammen med Andreas Skulstad, hatt ansvaret for kvantitative og modellbaserte analyser. Denne rapporten er en kortversjon utarbeidet med formål å formidle hovedpunkter fra hovedrapporten (NIBIO RAPPORT 8(110)2022). For fullstendig beskrivelse av forutsetninger, metodikk og resultater, samt litteraturoversikt, henviser vi til hovedrapporten.
- Published
- 2022
4. The cost of providing electricity to Africa
- Author
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Rosnes, Orvika and Vennemo, Haakon
- Published
- 2012
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5. The Impact of Climate Policies on the Operation of a Thermal Power Plant
- Author
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Rosnes, Orvika
- Published
- 2008
6. SNOW-modellen for Norge. Dokumentasjon av framskrivningsmodellen for norsk økonomi og utslipp
- Author
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Rosnes, Orvika, Bye, Brita, and Fæhn, Taran
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Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212 [VDP] ,Nasjonalregnskap ,Natur og miljø ,Konjunkturer - Abstract
Dette notatet dokumenterer den rekursivt dynamiske versjonen av SNOW-modellen for norsk økonomi (SNOW-NO). Denne versjonen av SNOW-NO kan brukes til å framskrive norsk økonomi fra et kalibrert basisår til en tenkt likevekt i hvert år framover ved å gi anslag på eksogene variable og parametere. SNOW er en modell som er utviklet for langsiktige studier av klimapolitikk og utslippsutvikling. Derfor er det i modelleringen lagt vekt på egenskaper som er viktige for klimapolitikk og utslipp, slik som sektorinndeling, spesifisering av skatter og avgifter, substitusjonsmuligheter osv. Modellen inkluderer utslipp av drivhusgasser (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFK, PFK og SF6), utslipp fra langtransportert forurensning som omfattes av Gøteborg-protokollen (NOx, SO2, NH3 og NMVOC) og utslipp av svevestøv (PM10 og PM2,5).
- Published
- 2019
7. Marginal abatement costs under EU’s effort sharing regulation. A CGE analysis
- Author
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Bye, Brita, Fæhn, Taran, and Rosnes, Orvika
- Subjects
Miljøavgift ,Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Matematikk: 410::Statistikk: 412 [VDP] - Abstract
Norway intends to join the EU’s proposed Effort-Sharing Regulation (ESR) that regulates the emission sources outside the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) – henceforth the NETS sectors. The NETS sectors include domestic transport, agriculture and households, among others, and account for almost 60% of total EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This analysis estimates the projected 2030 marginal abatement costs (MACs) for reducing CO2 emissions in EU. The proposed ESR provides several flexibility mechanisms. The analysis assumes full, efficient buying and selling opportunities across borders. Flexibilities proposed vis-á-vis the ETS and vis-á-vis the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector are varied. This analysis quantifies the MACs under different assumptions about these flexibility mechanisms, about the reference emissions and about the abatement of other greenhouse gases (non-CO2 GHGs). The basic scenario assumes proportional abatement of all GHGs, disregards flexibilities proposed vis-á-vis the ETS and LULUCF sectors and results in a 9% CO2 cut in the NETS sectors from the 2030 reference scenario in EC (2016). 11 other different combinations of assumptions leave us with cuts between 4% and 18%. Based on the scenarios, we have estimated the MACs for the NETS sectors by means of the global Computable General Equilibrium model SNOW. It can be used to assess the marginal costs for meeting different levels of an emission reduction target in the EU. The resulting MAC estimates are in the range of 25–158 €/t CO2. These moderately low costs partly reflect the relatively low remaining abatement commitments on top of reference projections provided by the European Commission (EC, 2016) and the member states (EU, 2017b). The estimated MAC curve is convex, implying that increasing the abatement ambition in NETS increases the MAC relatively more. To address uncertainty, sensitivity analyses of alternative assumptions and comparisons with related scenarios in other analyses are performed. The SNOW scenarios are within the range of previous findings, and sensitivity analysis indicates relatively small impacts of alternative parameter choices when emission reductions are relatively small, as in the basic scenario. We have analysed two scenarios in detail: the basic 9% scenario and the scenario representing the largest abatement of CO2, the 18% scenario. The MACs of abating 9% and 18% in NETS amount to 64 €/t CO2 and 158 €/t CO2, respectively. In both these scenarios we see that the Transport sector and Household sector reduce their emissions less than the average for NETS, while the Primary and the Other industries cut correspondingly more. Comparing the two scenarios reveals that the composition of the abatement across sectors is insensitive to the level of the abatement ambition. We also find that more than 90% of the abatement is due to increased energy efficiency and fuel switching within the sectors; the remaining mitigation is attained by downscaling production in the sectors. Miljødirektoratet
- Published
- 2019
8. Residential energy efficiency and European carbon policies: A CGE-analysis with bottom-up information on energy efficiency technologies
- Author
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Bye, Brita, Fæhn, Taran, and Rosnes, Orvika
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Karbon ,Q43 ,Carbon policies ,ddc:330 ,General equilibrium analysis ,Q48 ,Rebound effects ,D58 ,General Equilibrium analysis ,Energy efficiency policies ,Energieffektivisering - Abstract
Financial support from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme, Project ENTRACTE (No 308481) is acknowledged. While carrying out this research, all the authors have been associated with CREE – Oslo Centre for Research on Environmentally Friendly Energy. CREE acknowledges financial support from the Research Council of Norway, University of Oslo and user partners. While the introduction and reformation of climate policy instruments take place rapidly in Europe, the knowledge on how the instruments interact lags behind. In this paper we analyse different interpretations of the 2030 climate policy goals for residential energy efficiency and how they interact with targets for restricting CO2 emissions. We focus on Norway, whose climate and energy policies are integrated with those of the EU. As we account for investment costs of improving energy efficiency we find substantial welfare costs of energy efficiency policies, particularly when interacting with carbon pricing. Rebound effects within households are small, but economy-wide indirect rebound is significant because energy-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) industries expand. As residential energy use consists mainly of carbon-free electricity, this expansion of EITE-industries leads to increased total CO2 emissions.
- Published
- 2015
9. Powering Up : Costing Power Infrastructure Spending Needs in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author
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Rosnes, Orvika and Vennemo, Haakon
- Subjects
FUEL COSTS ,REAL INCOME ,DOMESTIC PRODUCTION ,POWER CONSUMPTION ,FUTURE DEMAND ,ANNUAL COST ,ECONOMIC GROWTH ,GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ,RENEWABLE GENERATION ,EXCHANGE RATES ,COAL POWER PLANTS ,GENERATION ASSETS ,PRICE TAG ,ROUTES ,COAL RESOURCES ,RAINFALL ,POWER DEMAND ,SUPPLY SIDE ,EMISSIONS ,TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS ,FOSSIL ,THERMAL POWER GENERATION ,INCOME ,DISTRIBUTION ASSETS ,CRUDE OIL ,DIESEL ,CAPITAL INVESTMENT COSTS ,CAPITAL INVESTMENTS ,INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING ,SUBSTITUTION ,ELECTRICITY DEMAND ,ELECTRIFICATION ,GROWTH IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND ,ENERGY OUTLOOK ,SCENARIOS ,DIESEL FUEL ,PRODUCTION COSTS ,GAS ,POWER SYSTEM ,PUBLIC PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE ,INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS ,ASSETS ,FOSSIL FUELS ,DEMAND FOR POWER ,ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION ,GENERATION CAPACITY ,HEAT PRODUCTION ,DOMESTIC GAS ,ENERGY TRANSMISSION ,POWER SUPPLY ,PRODUCTION INCREASES ,GREENHOUSE GAS ,MARGINAL COST ,PIPELINE ,POWER STATIONS ,ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ,ENERGY SUPPLY ,THERMAL PLANTS ,POWER PLANTS ,HYDROPOWER ,CAPITAL INVESTMENT ,DISTRIBUTION GRID ,CONNECTION COSTS ,MARGINAL COSTS ,THERMAL POWER PLANT ,WEATHER PATTERNS ,TOTAL COST ,COLORS ,ELECTRICITY DEMAND GROWTH ,OIL PRODUCTS ,VARIABLE COSTS ,SENSITIVITY ANALYSES ,HYDROPOWER PLANT ,LOWER DEMAND ,POWER GRID ,ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY ,VOLTAGE ,POWER CAPACITY ,GENERATION COSTS ,INCOME CLASS ,INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES ,CARBON EMISSIONS ,ELASTICITY ,ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ,GDP PER CAPITA ,STRUCTURAL CHANGE ,COST ESTIMATES ,HYDROPOWER GENERATION ,POWER SECTOR REFORM ,DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY ,INCOME LEVELS ,GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ,THERMAL POWER ,FUEL PRICE ,DOMESTIC ENERGY RESOURCES ,GREENHOUSE ,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ,GENERATION ,AGRICULTURE ,ENERGY POLICY ,CLIMATE CHANGE ,GENERATING CAPACITY ,CONSUMERS ,CAPACITY FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION ,ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ,FUEL ,POWER SECTOR ,ELECTRICITY ,GDP ,POWER PRODUCER ,CARBON ,COAL ,POWER INVESTMENTS ,METHANE ,DOMESTIC COAL ,ELECTRICITY GENERATION ,ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS ,FUEL PRICES ,TRANSMISSION GRID ,PORTFOLIO ,KILOWATT-HOUR ,CAPITAL COSTS ,EXPORTS ,COST OF FUEL ,COAL PLANTS ,CERTIFIED EMISSION REDUCTION ,POWER PRODUCTION ,BENCHMARK ,ENERGY RESOURCES ,ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK ,NUCLEAR POWER ,OIL PRICES ,ENERGY SECURITY ,KILOWATT-HOURS ,INVESTMENT DECISIONS ,DOMESTIC ENERGY ,THERMAL POWER PLANTS ,INTERNATIONAL ENERGY ,POWER COSTS ,POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGY ,CO2 ,COSTS OF POWER ,SUPPLY OF ELECTRICITY ,FORECASTS ,INVESTMENT COSTS ,REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ,GREENHOUSE GASES ,FEASIBILITY ,GRID COMPANY ,TRANSMISSION CAPACITY ,ANNUAL COSTS ,POWER ,HEAT ,POWER TRADE ,POWER SHORTAGES ,SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY ,TRANSMISSION LINES ,POWER GENERATION ,ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ,IMPORTS ,GROWTH RATE ,COMMERCIAL CONNECTIONS ,NATURAL GAS ,THERMAL CAPACITY ,REAL GDP ,TOTAL DEMAND ,OIL PRICE ,EMISSIONS FROM POWER PLANTS ,ASSET VALUE ,CAPACITY EXPANSION ,HEAVY FUEL OIL ,AVAILABILITY ,REPLACEMENT VALUE ,MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ,PRICE OF OIL ,CAPITAL COST ,ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION ,NATURAL RESOURCES ,BORDER TRANSMISSION ,CLIMATE ,COST ASSUMPTIONS ,GAS PRICE ,PRICE OF GAS ,IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ,UNEP ,GEOTHERMAL POWER ,GRID EXTENSION ,ECONOMIC RESEARCH ,EMISSION ,RURAL ELECTRIFICATION - Abstract
Sub-Saharan Africa will require substantial investments in the power sector on the order of 4 percent of the region's gross domestic product (GDP) annually before 2015 if it is to meet the demands of economic development, keep pace with population growth, and expand electrification beyond the 2005 regional average of just 34 percent. Developing a regional power-trading market that exploits the vast hydropower potential of the subcontinent may be the best way to bring those costs down while also protecting against increases in oil prices and curbing carbon emissions. Expanding electrification is a daunting challenge, but the costs associated with extending the transmission network are minor in comparison with the investments in generation needed to accompany the demand of Africa's growing economies.
- Published
- 2009
10. Short term effects of long-term policies: climate policies in power markets
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Rosnes, Orvika, Bye, Torstein, and Tennbakk, Berit
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Social science: 200::Economics: 210 [VDP] - Abstract
Norges Forskningsråd
- Published
- 2007
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