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Recent mandates require that rigorous statistical and mathematical approached be applied to all tests that fall under developmental and operational test and evaluation (T&SE). On October 19, 2010, J. Michael Gilmore, director of Operational Test and Evaluation, released a memorandum to the T&E community within DoD that describes an initiative designed to increase the use of scientific and statistical methods to develop rigorous methods for test and data analysis. Dr. Gilmore's memo specifies the need for using rigorous statistical based testing methods in order to ensure that proper and sufficient data is collected to answer the question of interest. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The mission of the Naval Special (NSW) community is to provide a versatile, responsive, and offensively focused force with continuous overseas presence in order to have strategic impact in missions that include special reconnaissance, direct action, unconventional warfare, and combating terrorism. Currently, the NSW community has large manpower gaps within the officer corps especially, at the Lieutenant Commander rank. This gap threatens the operational readiness of the NSW community, which in turn affects our national security. This thesis presents the development of the Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL (BUD/S) Accession Calculator (BAC) which uses goal programming and Markov chain analysis to determine the optimal number of new accessions needed to enter the BUD/S training program to meet target end-strength goals for company grade ranks. By properly manning the junior ranks the Lieutenant Commander rank can be properly manned. The results demonstrate that the NSW community can closely meet target end-strength goals of 127 and 285 for Lieutenant Junior Grades and Lieutenants, respectively, with the 100 accessions to BUD/S every year. However, as the attrition rate fluctuates the number of accessions change. The most dramatic impact to BUD/S accession requirements is observed when attrition rate increases. Decrease in attrition rate show that small changes to accession requirements occur. http://archive.org/details/thebasicunderwat109455760 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Bioterrorism is not a new threat, but the potential for disastrous outcomes is greater than it has ever been. In order to confront this threat, biosurveillance systems are utilized to provide early warning of health threats, early detection of health events, and situational awareness of disease activity. To date, there is little known about the performance of such biosurveillance systems in comparison to diagnosis capabilities of medical personnel. In this thesis, a discrete event simulation model of an anthrax outbreak is developed in order to analyze the performance of such biosurveillance systems in comparison to medical personnel. This research found the Early Aberration Reporting System C1 statistical algorithm is useful in early event detection of a bioterror attack. Given an exposed population of 1,000 people, the nominal probability that the algorithm signals first is 31.5% and it is 0.3% for an exposed population of 10,000 people. Given an exposed population of 1,000 people, the nominal time it takes for the algorithm to signal is 3.3 days and 0.38 days for an exposed population of 10,000 people. http://archive.org/details/assessingeffecti109455730 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.