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Identifying virus characteristics associated with the largest public health impacts on human populations is critical to informing “zoonotic risk” assessments and surveillance strategies. Efforts to assess zoonotic risk often use trait-based analyses to identify which viral and reservoir host groups are most likely to source zoonoses but have not fully addressed how and why the impacts of zoonotic viruses vary in terms of disease severity (“virulence”), capacity to spread within human populations (“transmissibility”), or total human mortality (“death burden”). We analyzed trends in human case fatality rates, transmission capacities, and total death burdens across a comprehensive dataset of mammalian and avian zoonotic viruses. Bats harbor the most virulent zoonotic viruses even when compared to birds, which alongside bats have been hypothesized to be special zoonotic reservoirs due to molecular adaptations that support the physiology of flight. Reservoir host groups more closely related to humans—in particular, primates—harbor less virulent but more highly transmissible viruses. Importantly, a disproportionately high human death burden, arguably the most important metric of zoonotic risk, is not associated with any animal reservoir, including bats. Our data demonstrate that mechanisms driving death burdens are diverse and often contradict trait-based predictions. Ultimately, total human mortality is dependent on context-specific epidemiological dynamics, which are shaped by a combination of viral traits and conditions in the animal host population and across and beyond the human–animal interface. Understanding the conditions that predict high zoonotic burden in humans will require longitudinal studies of epidemiological dynamics in wildlife and human populations.

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Assembled contigs from NOVOPlasty assembly, log files from assembly, and scripts used for data generation.

The pathogen transmission dynamics in bat reservoirs underpin efforts to reduce risks human-health and bat conservation but are notoriously challenging to resolve. For vampire-bat rabies, the geographical scale of enzootic cycles, whether environmental factors modulate baseline risk, and how within-host processes affect population-level dynamics remain unresolved. We studied patterns of rabies exposure using an 11-year, spatially replicated sero-survey of 3709 Peruvian vampire bats and co-occurring outbreaks in livestock. Seroprevalence was correlated among nearby sites but fluctuated asynchronously at larger distances. A generalized additive mixed model confirmed spatially compartmentalized transmission cycles, but no effects of bat demography or environmental context on seroprevalence. Among 427 recaptured bats, we observed long-term survival following rabies exposure and antibody waning, supporting hypotheses that immunological mechanisms influence viral maintenance. Finally, seroprevalence in bats was only weakly correlated with outbreaks in livestock, reinforcing the challenge of spillover prediction even with extensive data. Together our results suggest that rabies maintenance requires transmission among multiple, nearby bat colonies which may be facilitated by waning of protective immunity. However, the likelihood of incursions and dynamics of transmission within bat colonies appear largely independent of bat ecology. The implications of these results for spillover anticipation and controlling transmission at the source are discussed.

Objectives: \ud The aim of the study was to find evidence of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in UK cats.\ud \ud Design: \ud Tissue samples were tested for SARS‐CoV‐2 antigen using immunofluorescence and for viral RNA by in situ hybridisation. A set of 387 oropharyngeal swabs that had been submitted for routine respiratory pathogen testing was tested for SARS‐CoV‐2 RNA using reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR.\ud \ud Results: \ud Lung tissue collected post‐mortem from cat 1 tested positive for both SARS‐CoV‐2 nucleocapsid antigen and RNA. SARS‐CoV‐2 RNA was detected in an oropharyngeal swab collected from cat 2 that presented with rhinitis and conjunctivitis. High throughput sequencing of the viral genome revealed five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) compared to the nearest UK human SARS‐CoV‐2 sequence, and this human virus contained eight SNPs compared to the original Wuhan‐Hu‐1 reference sequence. An analysis of the viral genome of cat 2 together with nine other feline‐derived SARS‐CoV‐2 sequences from around the world revealed no shared cat‐specific mutations.\ud \ud Conclusions: \ud These findings indicate that human‐to‐cat transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2 occurred during the COVID‐19 pandemic in the UK, with the infected cats developing mild or severe respiratory disease. Given the ability of the new coronavirus to infect different species, it will be important to monitor for human‐to‐cat, cat‐to‐cat and cat‐to‐human transmission.

Microbial communities play an important role in organismal and ecosystem health. While high‐throughput metabarcoding has revolutionized the study of bacterial communities, generating comparable viral communities has proven elusive, particularly in wildlife samples where the diversity of viruses and limited quantities of viral nucleic acid present distinctive challenges. Metagenomic sequencing is a promising solution for studying viral communities, but the lack of standardized methods currently precludes comparisons across host taxa or localities. Here, we developed an untargeted shotgun metagenomic sequencing protocol to generate comparable viral communities from noninvasively collected faecal and oropharyngeal swabs. Using samples from common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus), a key species for virus transmission to humans and domestic animals, we tested how different storage media, nucleic acid extraction procedures and enrichment steps affect viral community detection. Based on finding viral contamination in foetal bovine serum, we recommend storing swabs in RNAlater or another nonbiological medium. We recommend extracting nucleic acid directly from swabs rather than from supernatant or pelleted material, which had undetectable levels of viral RNA. Results from a low‐input RNA library preparation protocol suggest that ribosomal RNA depletion and light DNase treatment reduce host and bacterial nucleic acid, and improve virus detection. Finally, applying our approach to twelve pooled samples from seven localities in Peru, we showed that detected viral communities saturated at the attained sequencing depth, allowing unbiased comparisons of viral community composition. Future studies using the methods outlined here will elucidate the determinants of viral communities across host species, environments and time.

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is an unusual RNA agent that replicates using host machinery but exploits hepatitis B virus (HBV) to mobilize its spread within and between hosts. In doing so, HDV enhances the virulence of HBV. How this seemingly improbable hyper-parasitic lifestyle emerged is unknown, but underpins the likelihood that HDV and related deltaviruses may alter other host-virus interactions. Here, we show that deltaviruses diversify by transmitting between mammalian species. Among 96,695 RNA sequence datasets, deltaviruses infected bats, rodents and an artiodactyl from the Americas, but were absent from geographically overrepresented Old World representatives of each mammalian order, suggesting a relatively recent diversification within the Americas. Consistent with diversification by host shifting, both bat and rodent-infecting deltaviruses were paraphyletic and co-evolutionary modeling rejected co-speciation with mammalian hosts. In addition, a two-year field study showed common vampire bats in Peru were infected by two divergent deltaviruses, indicating multiple introductions to a single host species. One vampire bat-associated deltavirus was detected in the saliva of up to 35% of individuals, formed phylogeographically compartmentalized clades, and infected a sympatric bat, illustrating horizontal transmission within and between species on ecological timescales. Consistent absence of HBV-like viruses in two deltavirus-infected bat species indicated acquisitions of novel viral associations during the divergence of bat and human-infecting deltaviruses. Our analyses support an American zoonotic origin of HDV and reveal prospects for future cross-species emergence of deltaviruses. Given their peculiar life history, deltavirus host shifts will have different constraints and disease outcomes compared to ordinary animal pathogens.

Bats host diverse coronaviruses, including taxa capable of pandemic spread in humans. We report the genome of an alphacoronavirus from a neotropical bat species (Desmodus rotundus) in Peru, which contributes to our understanding of bat coronaviruses in nature.

Whether a pathogen entering a new host species results in a single infection or in onward transmission, and potentially an outbreak, depends upon the progression of infection in the index case. Although index infections are rarely observable in nature, experimental inoculations of pathogens into novel host species have a long history in biomedical research. This provides a rich and largely unexploited data source for meta-analyses to identify the host and pathogen determinants of variability in infection outcomes. Here, we analysed the progressions of 514 experimental cross-species inoculations of rabies virus, a widespread zoonotic pathogen which in nature exhibits both dead end infections and varying levels of sustained transmission in novel hosts. Inoculations originating from bats rather than carnivores, and from warmer to cooler-bodied species caused infections with shorter incubation periods that were associated with diminished virus excretion. Inoculations between distantly related hosts tended to result in shorter clinical disease periods, which will also impede transmission. All effects were modulated by infection dose and together suggest that increased virulence as host species become more dissimilar is the limiting factor preventing onward transmission. These results explain observed constraints on rabies virus host shifts, allow us to evaluate the risk of novel reservoirs establishing, and give mechanistic insights into why host shifts are less likely between genetically distant species. More generally, our study highlights meta-analyses of experimental infections as a tractable approach to quantify the complex interactions between virus, reservoir, and novel host that shape the outcome of cross-species transmission.Significance statementEmerging disease epidemics often result from a pathogen establishing transmission in a novel host species. However, most cross-species transmissions fail to establish in the newly infected species for reasons that remain poorly understood. Examining cross-species inoculations involving rabies, a widespread viral zoonosis, we show that mismatches in virulence, which are predictable from host and viral factors, make sustained transmission in the novel host less likely. In particular, disease progression was accelerated and virus excretion decreased when the reservoir and novel host were physiologically or genetically more dissimilar. These mechanistic insights help to explain and predict host shift events and highlight meta-analyses of existing experimental inoculation data as a powerful and generalisable approach for understanding the dynamics of index infections in novel species.

Spatiotemporal distribution of vampire bat rabies outbreaks in Costa Rica (1985-2018).

Summary In Latin America, the common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus is the primary reservoir of rabies, a zoonotic virus that kills thousands of livestock annually and causes sporadic and lethal human rabies outbreaks. The proliferation of livestock provides an abundant food resource for this obligate blood‐feeding species that could alter its foraging behaviour and rabies transmission, but poor understanding of the dietary plasticity of vampire bats limits understanding of how livestock influences rabies risk.We analysed individual‐ and population‐level foraging behaviour by applying δ13C and δ15N stable isotope analysis to hair samples from 183 vampire bats captured from nine colonies in Peru. We also assessed the isotopic distributions of realized prey by analysing blood meals extracted from engorged bats and samples collected from potential prey species. In two adjacent but contrasting areas of the Amazon with scarce and abundant livestock, we used questionnaires to evaluate the incidence of feeding on humans.Population‐level isotopic signatures suggested substantial among‐site variation in feeding behaviour, including reliance on livestock in some colonies and feeding on combinations of domestic and wild prey in others. Isotopic heterogeneity within bat colonies was among the largest recorded in vertebrate populations, indicating that individuals consistently fed on distinct prey resources and across distinct trophic levels. In some sites, isotopic values of realized prey spanned broad ranges, suggesting that bats with intermediate isotopic values could plausibly be dietary specialists rather than generalists.Bayesian estimates of isotopic niche width varied up to ninefold among colonies and were maximized where wildlife and livestock were present at low levels, but declined with greater availability of livestock. In the Amazon, the absence of livestock was associated with feeding on humans and wildlife. Policy implications. We provide the first insights into the foraging behaviour of vampire bats in habitats with common depredation on humans and show how vampire bat foraging may respond to land‐use change. Our results demonstrate risks of rabies transmission from bats to other wildlife and are consistent with the hypothesis that introducing livestock might reduce the burden of human rabies in high‐risk communities.