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Divergent selection across the landscape can favor the evolution of local adaptation in populations experiencing contrasting conditions. Local adaptation is widely observed in a diversity of taxa, yet we have a surprisingly limited understanding of the mechanisms that give rise to it. For instance, few have experimentally confirmed the biotic and abiotic variables that promote local adaptation, and fewer yet have identified the phenotypic targets of selection that mediate local adaptation. Here, we highlight critical gaps in our understanding of the process of local adaptation and discuss insights emerging from in-depth investigations of the agents of selection that drive local adaptation, the phenotypes they target, and the genetic basis of these phenotypes. We review historical and contemporary methods for assessing local adaptation, explore whether local adaptation manifests differently across life history, and evaluate constraints on local adaptation.

Made available in DSpace on 2022-04-28T19:52:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2022-03-18 Urbanization transforms environments in ways that alter biological evolution. We examined whether urban environmental change drives parallel evolution by sampling 110,019 white clover plants from 6169 populations in 160 cities globally. Plants were assayed for a Mendelian antiherbivore defense that also affects tolerance to abiotic stressors. Urban-rural gradients were associated with the evolution of clines in defense in 47% of cities throughout the world. Variation in the strength of clines was explained by environmental changes in drought stress and vegetation cover that varied among cities. Sequencing 2074 genomes from 26 cities revealed that the evolution of urban-rural clines was best explained by adaptive evolution, but the degree of parallel adaptation varied among cities. Our results demonstrate that urbanization leads to adaptation at a global scale. Department of Biology University of Toronto Mississauga ON Centre for Urban Environments University of Toronto Mississauga ON Department of Biology University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Department of Biology University of Louisiana LA Department of Biology Queen's University ON Department of Biology Concordia University QC Department of Biological Sciences DePaul University Department of Biology DePauw University IN Department of Urban Design and Planning, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Colegio de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ Department of Genetics University of Georgia Department of Ecology and Genetics Evolutionary Biology Centre Uppsala University Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere Hokkaido University Natural History Museum Zoology University of New England NSW Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia da UFMT campus de Rondonópolis Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research Centre University of British Columbia Graduate Program in Genome Sciences and Technology Genome Sciences Centre University of British Columbia Department of Microbiology and Immunology University of British Columbia Red de Biología Evolutiva Instituto de Ecología A. C. School of the Environment Yale University CT Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad Universidad de Chile Department of Biology Mount Allison University Red de Ecoetología Instituto de Ecología A. C. Department of Biology University of Ottawa ON Department of Zoology University of Cambridge Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA Department of Biology University of Miami FL Centro de Investigación en Recursos Naturales y Sustentabilidad (CIRENYS) Universidad Bernardo O'Higgins Department of Biology, University of La Verne, La Verne, CA, USA Département des sciences du bois et de la forêt Université Laval QC Evolution & Ecology Research Centre School of Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences UNSW Sydney NSW Department of Biology Ghent University Department of Biology Monmouth University West Long Branch Centre for Ecology Evolution and Environmental Changes Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Lisboa Department of Biology KU Leuven School of Agriculture and Environment Wildlife and Ecology group Massey University, Palmerston North Department of Biological Sciences University of Cape Town Institute of Landscape Ecology University of Münster Gosnell School of Life Sciences, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY, USA Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta AB Louis Calder Center and Department of Biological Sciences, Fordham University, Armonk, NY, USA Departamento de Ecología Tropical, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Mérida, Yucatán, México School of Life Sciences University of Sussex Department of Ecology Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University iBIOTROP Instituto de Biodiversidad Tropical Universidad San Francisco de Quito Department of Biology, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA, USA Unidad de Recursos Naturales, Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán AC, Mérida, Yucatán, México School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences East China Normal University Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Sustainable Plant Innovation Centre for Ecosystem Science School of Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences UNSW Sydney NSW Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Michigan MI Department of Biosciences Rice University TX IFEVA Universidad de Buenos Aires Facultad de Agronomía, CONICET Biology Department Saint Mary's University NS Department of Biological Sciences, Universidad de los Andes Department of Biology and Biochemistry University of Houston TX Université de Rennes Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre University of British Columbia Department of Environmental Studies Dordt University Sioux Center IA Department of Biology Minneapolis Community and Technical College MN Department of Natural Sciences Ecology and Environment Research Centre Manchester Metropolitan University Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad UNAM Department of Botany School of Biology Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Faculty of Biological and Environmental Science Organismal & Evolutionary Biology Research Programme University of Helsinki Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine University of Glasgow Department of Biology Hendrix College Department of Ecological Science Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja Departamento de Biologia Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) Department of Plant Sciences School of Biology College of Science University of Tehran NTNU University Museum Norwegian University of Science and Technology Red de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados Instituto de Ecología A. C. School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Whiteknights Park, Reading, Berkshire, UK Department of Biology Northern Arizona University AZ Department of Biological Sciences MacEwan University AB Max Planck Institute for Plant Breeding Research Departamento de Ecología Evolutiva Instituto de Ecología Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Max Planck Institute of Molecular Plant Physiology Potsdam-Golm BIO5 Institute University of Arizona AZ Alaska Center for Conservation Science University of Alaska Anchorage Tropical Diversity, Royal Botanical Garden of Edinburgh Département de biologie Université de Moncton Department of Biological Sciences University of Manitoba MB Departments of Microbiology & Statistics University of Manitoba MB Department of Biology University of New Brunswick Department of Biology Kalamazoo College MI BioProtection Research Centre Lincoln University Departamento de Ciencias Facultad de Artes Liberales Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez Department of Ecology Evolution Behaviour University of Minnesota MN Department of Biological Sciences Brock University Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA ICB - University of Talca School of Molecular and Life Science Curtin University College of Science Health Engineering and Education Murdoch University, Murdoch School of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Sydney NSW School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Department of Biological Sciences Wayne State University MI Department of Biology Western Oregon University, OR School of Natural Resources and the Environment University of Arizona AZ Departamento de Ecología Humana, Cinvestav Mérida Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas y Departamento de Ecología y Biodiversidad Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andrés Bello Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB) Department of Biology Lund University Department of Biology Norwegian University of Science and Technology Escuela Superiro de Desarrollo Sustentable Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero -CONACYT Clarkson Secondary School Peel District School Board ON Homelands Sr. Public School Peel District School Board ON Department of Biological Sciences University of Illinois at Chicago Dufferin-Peel Catholic District School Board, St. James Catholic Global Learning Centre Department of Biosciences University of Calgary AB Ecological Processes Branch U.S. Army ERDC-CERL Department of Biology, Oberlin College, Oberlin, OH, USA Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores Unidad Morelia UNAM Institute of Evolution and Ecology University of Tübingen Tübingen Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse Urban Wildlife Institute Department of Conservation and Science, Lincoln Park Zoo Departamento de Ecología Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción Department of Biological Sciences University of Denver CO Department of Biological Sciences Mississippi State University MS Department of Biology Center for Computational & Integrative Biology Rutgers University-Camden Kunming Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Chemistry & Biochemistry Laurentian University ON Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering College of Life Sciences Beijing Normal University School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Posgrado en Ciencias Biológicas Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Department of Biological Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA Department of Biology University of New Mexico NM Department of Biology University of Wisconsin - Eau Claire Agriculture Institute Iranian Research Organization for Science and Technology (IROST) Department of Biology Colby College ME Instituto de Biología Universidad de Antioquia Department of Biology University of Massachusetts Boston MA Agricultural Biology Colorado State University CO Departamento de Biología Vegetal y Ecología Facultad de Biología Universidad de Sevilla, Av. Reina Mercedes s/n Facultad de Estudios Interdisciplinarios Centro GEMA- Genómica Universidad Mayor Evolutionary Ecology Group Naturalis Biodiversity Center Department of Biology and Chemistry Nipissing University ON, North Bay Center for Ecological Research Kyoto University Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research Program University of Alaska Fairbanks Department of Botany and Molecular Evolution Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt Departamento de Biodiversidade Instituto de Biociências Univ Estadual Paulista - UNESP Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies University of Wisconsin-Madison WI Department of Biology, California State University, Northridge, Los Angeles, CA, USA Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Facultad de Ciencias y Biotecnologia Universidad CES Department of Biology Hofstra University Faculty of Biosciences and Aquaculture Nord University, Bodø Division of Biological Sciences, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA Department of Biology University of Richmond VA Estación de Biodiversidad Tiputini Colegio de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ Department of Biological Sciences Institute of Environment Florida International University FL Agronomy Department University of Almería Department of Biological Sciences and Center for Urban Ecology and Sustainability Butler University IN Department of Biological Sciences Louisiana State University LA Faculty of Biological Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt Institute of Biology Leiden Leiden University Department of Biological and Environmental Science University of Jyväskylä Jyväskylä Department of Biology University of Louisville KY Organization for Programs on Environmental Science University of Tokyo CNRS AgroParisTech Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, Université Paris-Saclay Department of Biology, Providence College, Providence, RI, USA General Zoology Institute for Biology Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks Science, Technology and Society Department, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY, USA SLU Swedish Species Information Centre Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Biology Westfield State University MA Centre of New Technologies University of Warsaw Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA Plant Biology Department Michigan State University MI Biology Department Davidson College College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences/ Hubei Engineering Technology Research Center for Forestry Information Huazhong Agricultural University School of Life Sciences Technical University of Munich School of Life Sciences Lanzhou University Institute of Ecology and Evolution University of Bern Department of Evolution Ecology and Behaviour University of Liverpool Departamento de Biodiversidade Instituto de Biociências Univ Estadual Paulista - UNESP

Investment in current reproduction can reduce future fitness by depleting resources needed for maintenance, particularly under environmental stress. These trade-offs influence life-history evolution. We tested whether climate change alters the future-fitness costs of current reproduction in a large-scale field experiment of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). Over 6 years, we simulated climate change along an elevational gradient in the Rocky Mountains through snow removal, which accelerates snowmelt and reduces soil water availability. Costs of reproduction were greatest in arid, lower elevations, where high initial reproductive effort depressed future fitness. At mid-elevations, initial reproduction augmented subsequent fitness in benign conditions, but pronounced costs emerged under snow removal. At high elevation, snow removal dampened costs of reproduction by prolonging the growing season. In most scenarios, failed reproduction in response to resource limitation depressed lifetime fecundity. Indeed, fruit abortion only benefited high-fitness individuals under benign conditions. We propose that climate change could shift life-history trade-offs in an environment-dependent fashion, possibly favouring early reproduction and short lifespans in stressful conditions.

Investment in current reproduction can reduce future fitness by depleting resources needed for maintenance, particularly under environmental stress. These trade-offs influence life-history evolution. We tested whether climate change alters the future-fitness costs of current reproduction in a large-scale field experiment ofBoechera stricta(Brassicaceae). Over 6 years, we simulated climate change along an elevational gradient in the Rocky Mountains through snow removal, which accelerates snowmelt and reduces soil water availability. Costs of reproduction were greatest in arid, lower elevations, where high initial reproductive effort depressed future fitness. At mid-elevations, initial reproduction augmented subsequent fitness in benign conditions, but pronounced costs emerged under snow removal. At high elevation, snow removal dampened costs of reproduction by prolonging the growing season. In most scenarios, failed reproduction in response to resource limitation depressed lifetime fecundity. Indeed, fruit abortion only benefited high-fitness individuals under benign conditions. We propose that climate change could shift life-history trade-offs in an environment-dependent fashion, possibly favouring early reproduction and short lifespans in stressful conditions.

Parental environmental effects-or transgenerational plasticity-can influence an individual's phenotype or fitness yet remain underexplored in the context of global change. Using the perennial self-pollinating plant Boechera stricta, we explored the effects of climate change on transgenerational and within-generation plasticity in dormancy, germination, growth, and survival. We first conducted a snow removal experiment in the field, in which we transplanted 16 families of known origin into three common gardens at different elevations and exposed half of the siblings to contemporary snow dynamics and half to early snow removal. We planted the offspring of these individuals in a factorial manipulation of temperature and water level in the growth chamber and reciprocally transplanted them across all parental environments in the field. The growth chamber experiment revealed that the effects of transgenerational plasticity persist in traits expressed after establishment, even when accounting for parental effects on seed mass. The field experiment showed that transgenerational and within-generation plasticity can interact and that plasticity varies clinally in populations distributed across elevations. These findings demonstrate that transgenerational plasticity can influence fitness-related traits and should be incorporated in studies of biological responses to climate change.

Summary Extensive empirical work has demonstrated local adaptation to discrete environments, yet few studies have elucidated the genetic and environment mechanisms that generate it. Here, we advocate for research that broadens our understanding of local adaptation beyond pattern and towards process. We discuss how studies of local adaptation can be designed to address two unresolved questions in evolutionary ecology: Does local adaptation result from fitness trade-offs at individual loci across habitats? How do agents of selection interact to generate local adaptation to discrete contrasting habitats types and continuous environmental gradients? To inform future investigations of the genetic basis of local adaptation, we conducted a literature review of studies that mapped quantitative trait loci (QTL) for fitness in native field environments using reciprocal transplant experiments with hybrid mapping populations or Genome-wide Association Study (GWAS) panels. We then reviewed the literature for field experiments that disentangle the contributions of various agents of selection to local adaptation. For each question, we suggest future lines of inquiry and discuss implications for climate change and agriculture research. (i) Studies in the native habitats of five biological systems revealed that local adaptation is more often caused by conditional neutrality than genetic trade-offs at the level of the QTL. We consider the ramifications of this result and discuss knowledge gaps in our current understanding of the genetic basis of local adaptation. (ii) We uncovered only five studies that identified the agents of selection that contribute to local adaptation, and nearly all were conducted in discrete habitats rather than across the continuous environmental gradients that many species inhabit. We introduce a novel experimental framework for illuminating the processes underlying local adaptation. A holistic view of local adaptation is critical for predicting the responses of organisms to climate change, enhancing conservation efforts, and developing strategies to improve crop resilience to environmental stress. Experiments that manipulate agents of selection in native field environments using pedigreed populations or GWAS panels offer unique opportunities for detecting the genetic and environmental mechanisms that generate local adaptation.

The persistence of narrowly adapted species under climate change will depend on their ability to migrate apace with their historical climatic envelope or to adapt in place to maintain fitness. This second path to persistence can only occur if there is sufficient genetic variance for response to new selection regimes. Inadequate levels of genetic variation can be remedied through assisted gene flow (AGF), that is the intentional introduction of individuals genetically adapted to localities with historic climates similar to the current or future climate experienced by the resident population. However, the timing of reproduction is frequently adapted to local conditions. Phenological mismatch between residents and migrants can reduce resident × migrant mating frequencies, slowing the introgression of migrant alleles into the resident genetic background and impeding evolutionary rescue efforts. Focusing on plants, we devised a method to estimate the frequency of resident × migrant matings based on flowering schedules and applied it in an experiment that mimicked the first generation of an AGF program with Chamaecrista fasciculata, a prairie annual, under current and expected future temperature regimes. Phenological mismatch reduced the potential for resident × migrant matings by 40-90%, regardless of thermal treatment. The most successful migrant sires were the most resident like in their flowering time, further biasing the genetic admixture between resident and migrant populations. Other loci contributing to local adaptation-heat-tolerance genes, for instance-may be in linkage disequilibrium with phenology when residents and migrants are combined into a single mating pool. Thus, introgression of potentially adaptive migrant alleles into the resident genetic background is slowed when selection acts against migrant phenology. Successful AGF programs may require sustained high immigration rates or preliminary breeding programs when phenologically matched migrant source populations are unavailable.

The timing of transition out of one life-history phase determines where in the seasonal succession of environments the next phase is spent. Shifts in the general environment (e.g., seasonal climate) affect the expected fitness for particular transition dates. Variation in transition date also leads to temporal variation in the social environment. For instance, early transition may confer a competitive advantage over later individuals. If so, the social environment will impose frequency- and density-dependent selection components. In effect, the general environment imposes hard selection, whereas the social environment imposes soft selection on phenology. We examined hard and soft selection on seedling emergence time in an experiment on Brassica rapa. In monoculture (uniform social environment), early emergence results in up to a 1.5-fold increase in seed production. In bicultures (heterogeneous social environment), early-emerging plants capitalized on their head start, suppressing their late neighbors and increasing their fitness advantage to as much as 38-fold, depending on density. We devised a novel adaptation of contextual analysis to partition total selection (i.e., cov(ω, z)) into the hard and soft components. Hard and soft components had similar strengths at low density, whereas soft selection was five times stronger than hard at high density.

Summary In plants, the temporal pattern of floral displays, or display schedules, delimits an individual's mating opportunities. Thus, variation in the shape of display schedules can affect the degree of population synchrony and the strength of phenological assortative mating by flowering onset date. A good understanding of the mechanisms regulating the timing of flowering onset has been developed, but we know less about factors influencing subsequent patterns of floral display. We observed unusual multimodal display schedules in temperate populations of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata. Here, we ask whether ‘flowering pulses’ are simultaneous among individuals and populations and explore potential underlying mechanisms and consequences of pulsed flowering. We monitored daily flower production for individual plants from genetically divergent populations during a series of field experiments that manipulated three potential influencers of display schedule shape: average daily temperature, pollinator availability and watering schedules. We measured floral longevity to isolate the contributions of flower retention and flower deployment to display schedules. We assessed relationships between flowering and environmental variables and compared estimates of population synchrony, individual synchrony and the strength of assortative mating with those of 29 unimodally flowering species from the area. We observed simultaneous flowering pulses in all experiments, with peaks aligned among individuals and populations despite variation in flowering onset and/or duration. Pulses were not the result of increases in average temperature, pollinator availability or variation in watering schedules. Seasonal fluctuations in temperature correlated with floral longevity and flower deployment, suggesting that the shape of display schedules may be plastic in response to fluctuations in temperature. Average population and individual synchrony differed only slightly from those of the species with unimodal schedules, while the average strength of assortative mating for flowering onset date was strongly reduced (0.21 in C. fasciculata vs. 0.35 for the 29 other species). Synthesis. Researchers should take caution in assuming that components of display schedules are genetically or developmentally correlated with flowering onset. Variation in the shape of display schedules can influence patterns of gene flow within or between populations, with potential effects on the strength of phenological assortative mating and subsequent responses to selection.

Climate change has induced pronounced shifts in the reproductive phenology of plants, yet we know little about which environmental factors contribute to interspecific variation in responses and their effects on fitness. We integrate data from a 43 yr record of first flowering for six species in subalpine Colorado meadows with a 3 yr snow manipulation experiment on the perennial forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) from the same site. We analyze shifts in the onset of flowering in relation to environmental drivers known to influence phenology: the timing of snowmelt, the accumulation of growing degree days, and photoperiod. Variation in responses to climate change depended on the sequence in which species flowered, with early-flowering species reproducing faster, at a lower heat sum, and under increasingly disparate photoperiods relative to later-flowering species. Early snow-removal treatments confirm that the timing of snowmelt governs observed trends in flowering phenology of B. stricta and that climate change can reduce the probability of flowering, thereby depressing fitness. Our findings suggest that climate change is decoupling historical combinations of photoperiod and temperature and outpacing phenological changes for our focal species. Accurate predictions of biological responses to climate change require a thorough understanding of the factors driving shifts in phenology.

Selection gradient analysis examines the strength and direction of phenotypic selection as well as the curvature of fitness functions, allowing predictions on and insights into the process of evolution in natural populations. However, traditional linear and quadratic selection analyses are not capable of detecting other features of fitness functions, such as asymmetry or thresholds, which may be relevant for understanding key aspects of selection on many traits. In these cases, additional analyses are needed to test specific hypotheses about fitness functions. In this study we used several approaches to analyze selection on a major life-history trait—flowering time—in the annual plant Brassica rapa subjected to experimentally abbreviated and lengthened growing seasons. We used a model that incorporated a tradeoff between the time allocated to growth versus the time allocated to reproduction in order to predict fitness function shape. The model predicted that optimal flowering time shifts to earlier and later dates as the growing season contracts and expands. It also showed the flowering time fitness function to be asymmetrical: reproductive output increases modestly between the earliest and the optimal flowering date, but then falls sharply with later dates, truncating in a ‘tail of zeros’. Our experimental results strongly supported selection for early flowering in short season and selection for late flowering in long season conditions. We also found support for the predicted asymmetry of the flowering time fitness function, including a ‘tail of zeros’ at later flowering dates. The form of the fitness function revealed here has implications for interpreting estimates of selection on flowering time in natural populations and for refining predictions on evolutionary response to climate change. More generally, this study illustrates the value of diverse statistical approaches to understanding mechanisms of natural selection.

Genetically based trait variation across environmental gradients can reflect adaptation to local environments. However, natural populations that appear well-adapted often exhibit directional, not stabilizing, selection on ecologically relevant traits. Temporal variation in the direction of selection could lead to stabilizing selection across multiple episodes of selection, which might be overlooked in short-term studies that evaluate relationships of traits and fitness under only one set of conditions. Furthermore, nonrandom mortality prior to trait expression can bias inferences about trait evolution if viability selection opposes fecundity selection. Here, we leveraged fitness and trait data to test whether phenotypic clines are genetically based and adaptive, whether temporal variation in climate imposes stabilizing selection, and whether viability selection acts on adult phenotypes. We monitored transplants of the subalpine perennial forb, Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), in common gardens at two elevations over 2–3 years that differed in drought intensity. We quantified viability, and fecundity fitness components for four heritable traits: specific leaf area, integrated water-use efficiency, height at first flower, and flowering phenology. Our results indicate that genetic clines are maintained by selection, but their expression is context dependent, as they do not emerge in all environments. Moreover, selection varied spatially and temporally. Stabilizing selection was most pronounced when we integrated data across years. Finally, viability selection prior to trait expression targeted adult phenotypes (age and size at flowering). Indeed, viability selection for delayed flowering opposed fecundity selection for accelerated flowering; this result demonstrates that neglecting to account for viability selection could lead to inaccurate conclusions that populations are maladapted. Our results suggest that reconciling clinal trait variation with selection requires data collected across multiple spatial scales, time frames, and life-history stages.

The persistence of narrowly adapted species under climate change will depend on their ability to migrate apace with their historical climatic envelope or to adapt in place to maintain fitness. This second path to persistence can only occur if there is sufficient genetic variance for response to new selection regimes. Inadequate levels of genetic variation can be remedied through assisted gene flow (AGF), that is the intentional introduction of individuals genetically adapted to localities with historic climates similar to the current or future climate experienced by the resident population. However, the timing of reproduction is frequently adapted to local conditions. Phenological mismatch between residents and migrants can reduce resident × migrant mating frequencies, slowing the introgression of migrant alleles into the resident genetic background and impeding evolutionary rescue efforts. Focusing on plants, we devised a method to estimate the frequency of resident × migrant matings based on flowering schedules and applied it in an experiment that mimicked the first generation of an AGF program with Chamaecrista fasciculata, a prairie annual, under current and expected future temperature regimes. Phenological mismatch reduced the potential for resident × migrant matings by 40-90%, regardless of thermal treatment. The most successful migrant sires were the most resident like in their flowering time, further biasing the genetic admixture between resident and migrant populations. Other loci contributing to local adaptation-heat-tolerance genes, for instance-may be in linkage disequilibrium with phenology when residents and migrants are combined into a single mating pool. Thus, introgression of potentially adaptive migrant alleles into the resident genetic background is slowed when selection acts against migrant phenology. Successful AGF programs may require sustained high immigration rates or preliminary breeding programs when phenologically matched migrant source populations are unavailable.

The timing of transition out of one life-history phase determines where in the seasonal succession of environments the next phase is spent. Shifts in the general environment (e.g., seasonal climate) affect the expected fitness for particular transition dates. Variation in transition date also leads to temporal variation in the social environment. For instance, early transition may confer a competitive advantage over later individuals. If so, the social environment will impose frequency- and density-dependent selection components. In effect, the general environment imposes hard selection, whereas the social environment imposes soft selection on phenology. We examined hard and soft selection on seedling emergence time in an experiment on Brassica rapa. In monoculture (uniform social environment), early emergence results in up to a 1.5-fold increase in seed production. In bicultures (heterogeneous social environment), early-emerging plants capitalized on their head start, suppressing their late neighbors and increasing their fitness advantage to as much as 38-fold, depending on density. We devised a novel adaptation of contextual analysis to partition total selection (i.e., cov(ω, z)) into the hard and soft components. Hard and soft components had similar strengths at low density, whereas soft selection was five times stronger than hard at high density.

Since the Industrial Revolution began approximately 200 years ago, global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) has increased from 270 to 401 µL L−1, and average global temperatures have risen by 0.85°C, with the most pronounced effects occurring near the poles ([IPCC, 2013][1]). In