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Überschuldung ist eine Privatangelegenheit, die man mit oft niemanden teilt. Überschuldet zu sein oder gar ein Insolvenzverfahren zu durchlaufen, ist in Deutschland mit Scham verbunden. Nach wie vor wird häufig den Betroffenen selbst die persönliche Schuld zugeschrieben, obwohl die Betroffenen in den meisten Fällen kaum Einfluss auf die Auslöser für ihre finanzielle Notlage haben. Wie nicht zuletzt auch immer wieder der iff-Überschuldungsreport belegt, gehen diese Auslöser überwiegend auf sogenannte externe Ereignisse zurück. Dazu zählen vor allem Arbeitslosigkeit, Einkommensarmut, Krankheit und Scheidung. Die Stigmatisierung von Überschuldung ist jedoch gefährlich. Direkt betrifft sie die Gesundheit der Betroffenen und belastet ihr soziales Umfeld. Indirekt betrifft es auch ihre Kinder. Sie werden marginalisiert, weil ihnen das Geld zur vollen sozialen Teilhabe, d.h. insbesondere zur Teilnahme an Schulausflügen, sportlichen oder kulturellen Ereignissen oder zum Nachhilfeunterricht fehlt. Indirekt ist aber ebenfalls das Gemeinwesen betroffen. Wer sich in einer aussichtslosen Lage wähnt, nimmt am politischen Meinungsbildungsprozess nicht teil und hat auch weniger Zeit und Kraft, sich an immer größer werdenden gesellschaftlichen Aufgaben, wie der Bewältigung der Integrationsleistung von Menschen mit Migrationshintergrund oder auch die Pflege für älterer Angehöriger zu beteiligen. (...)

Ein Mindestmaß an Finanzkompetenz ist Voraussetzung für eine nachhaltige Nutzung von Finanzdienstleistungen, gesellschaftlichen Teilhabe und gelungene Integration. Die vorliegende Pilotstudie untersucht qualitativ, welche finanziellen Kompetenzen und Praktiken auf Seiten Geflüchteter vorliegen und welche Bedarfe und Hindernisse für die sinnvolle Nutzung von Finanzdienstleistungen bestehen. Sie konzentriert sich auf in Hamburg lebende Geflüchtete mit guter Bleibeperspektive aus Syrien, Irak und Eritrea. Feldbeobachtungen, Einzelinterviews und Fokusgruppendiskussionen zeigen, dass die finanzielle Bildung der Befragten gering ausgeprägt ist. Dies erklärt sich vor allem durch mangelnde Praxis sowie sprachliche Barrieren. Bereits in den Heimatländern wurden formelle Finanzdienstleistungen wenig genutzt. Finanzielle Transaktionen und Sparen werden überwiegend bar durchgeführt. Komplexere Finanzprodukte und Versicherungen werden nicht genutzt. Die finanzielle Inklusion der befragten Geflüchteten ist folglich nicht erreicht. A minimum level of financial competence is a prerequisite for the sustainable use of financial services, social participation and successful integration. This pilot study is a qualitative study of the financial competencies and practices of refugees and the needs and obstacles to the appro-priate use of financial services. It focuses on refugees from Syria, Iraq and Eritrea living in Hamburg and having good prospects of staying in Germany. Field observations, individual interviews and focus group discussions show that the respondents' financial education is low. This is mainly due to a lack of practice and language barriers. Even in the home countries, formal financial services have been used little. Financial transactions and savings are mostly carried out in cash. More complex financial products and insurances are not used. The financial inclusion of the refugees interviewed has therefore not been achieved.

In the light of the unconventional monetary policies implemented by most large central banks around the world, there is an intense debate about the potential impact on the prices of capital assets. Particularly in Germany, skepticism about the sustainability of the current policy by the European Central Bank is wide spread and concerns about the emergence of a speculative price bubble in the housing market are increasing. The present study analyzes a comprehensive data set covering 127 large German cities from 1990 through 2013, using tests for speculative bubbles, both at a national and city level. Furthermore, we apply two new testing approaches: panel-data and principal components versions of explosive root tests. We find evidence for explosive price increases in many cities. However, it is only in select urban housing markets that prices decouple from their fundamental values. There is no evidence for speculative price movements nationally.

Studie über die Situation von privater Überschuldung betroffener Menschen in Deutschland 2018: Ausgewertet wurden die Daten von 110.000 überschuldeten Haushalten in 39 Schuldnerberatungsstellen. Die Studie analysiert die Schulden, Verzugszinsen und die Kosten der Rechtsverfolgung bei den verschiedenen Gläubigergruppen. Die Studie zeigt, dass die Überschuldeten stark unter der steigenden Wohnkosten leiden. Ein Viertel von Ihnen gibt mehr als die Hälfte dafür aus.

The German economy is on track, and will likely grow by 1.8 percent this year; in the coming year, with a slight increase in dynamics, it will grow by 1.9 percent. With these figures DIW Berlin confirms its forecast from this summer. Employment growth continues; the unemployment rate will decrease this year to 6.4 percent, where it will remain in 2016. Due to the sharp drop in oil prices this year, inflation is low and stands at 0.4 percent; next year it will climb to 1.4 percent. Global economic growth is likely to experience a slight increase during the forecast period. In the industrialized countries in particular, the renewed drop in energy prices keeps inflation rates low. In addition, many countries have experienced steady improvements in labor markets. Together, these two factors support consumption and the purchasing power of households. Recovery in the euro area is moving forward. The euro's external value is low, the monetary policy is very expansionary, and major trading partners are growing vigorously; consumption is likely to develop well, and in the course of time, corporate investment is also expected to recover. In the emerging markets, growth will remain subdued this year. Higher financial market volatility is leading to deterioration in financing conditions. They are expected to contribute more to global growth next year, when for example Russia and Brazil have emerged from recession. German exports continue their upward trend: A strong upturn in major industrial countries, as well as the continued recovery within the euro area, are compensating for the somewhat weaker demand from the emerging countries. In net terms, however, foreign trade barely contributes to growth, because imports will increase significantly as part of the dynamic domestic economy. Consumption is supporting the growth of the German economy. The low inflation substantially supports consumers' purchasing power. But nominal incomes are also experiencing strong increases: The employment growth continues - the number of employed individuals is expected to rise at roughly the rate of previous quarters - and wages have noticeably increased, also due to the introduction of the minimum wage. Other important factors are the significant increases in social benefits; these are primarily due to a sharp increase in pensions, but also to the benefits being received by the refugees, which should give private consumption an additional boost. In contrast, investment will be rather subdued overall. Concerns about the future of the euro area are likely to dampen investment plans. Furthermore, considerable uncertainties about the development of important markets have recently intensified, particularly in China. There are also unresolved geopolitical conflicts, especially the tensions with Russia. Nevertheless, a moderate expansion of investment in equipment is emerging. With robust foreign demand and fully utilized capacities in the industry, these investments are expected to rise over time, especially since the dynamic domestic demand should provide an impetus. However, the risks to the economy remain high and in fact have recently increased. The impending interest rate turnaround in the U.S. could lead to unexpectedly strong capital outflows from the emerging countries; given the high private debt - especially since it is often in foreign currency - this could dampen economic momentum in these countries as well. Although a significant slump in the Chinese economy is expected to be handled with expansionary measures by the government, there is the risk that they may not take sufficient countermeasures in time. It has also been shown in the past that uncertainty about the further development of European integration can flare up quickly. In addition, the recently high volatility of oil prices shows that a new stable equilibrium still has not been established on the market. The planning uncertainty bound up with this could dampen the disposition of many corporations more strongly than assumed here.

Studie über die Situation von privater Überschuldung betroffener Menschen in Deutschland bis einschließlich des ersten Quartals 2017: Ausgewertet wurden die Daten von 104.000 überschuldeten Haushalten in 39 Schuldnerberatungsstellen. Die Studie analysiert die Schulden, Verzugszinsen. Zudem zeigt sich: Die Insolvenzrechtsreform ist gescheitert, kaum ein Überschuldeter kann die Wohlverhaltensphase verkürzen.

In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated linguistic sentiment algorithms and business cycle news rated by experts perform best and are superior to simple word-count indicators and autoregressive forecasts.

Guarantee banks backed by the state aim to close the gap in the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises or start-ups caused by lacking collateral or equity and high information asymmetry. The present study quantifies the economic and fiscal net benefits of guarantee banks in the new federal states of Germany, where economic development is still lacking behind those in the old federal states. Using data of five guarantee banks and results from enterprise and bank surveys, we measure finance and project additionality of loan and equity guarantees provided over the period 1991-2015. Cost-benefit analyses show that the economic benefits of the guarantee banks are considerable because of increased production and employment, while the economic costs are negligible. The real GDP increases by about 1.2 euro per euro guarantee each year. In the years 2008 to 2014, there were net fiscal gains of several hundred million euros in the respective federal states.

Die Mietpreise in Deutschland steigen seit einigen Jahren wieder stärker. Vor allem in Metropolen wie Berlin, Hamburg und München lagen die Zunahmen zuletzt über dem gesamtdeutschen Durchschnitt von rund zwei Prozent. Die Bundesregierung möchte auf diese Entwicklung mit einer Mietpreisbremse reagieren, die unter anderem die Mieten bei Wiedervermietungen beschränken soll. Doch sind staatliche Eingriffe in die Mietpreissetzung überhaupt nötig? Die Wachstumsraten der nominalen Mieten gehen seit den 90er Jahren stark zurück, von zuvor mehr als vier Prozent auf etwa ein Prozent im Durchschnitt der vergangenen 15 Jahre. Real, also unter Berücksichtigung der allgemeinen Teuerung, sind die Mieten stellenweise sogar gesunken. Starke Mietsteigerungen scheinen eher ein Problem der Groß- und Universitätsstädte zu sein. Ein Grund dafür ist der allgemeine Trend der Reurbanisierung, der zu kräftigen Zuwächsen der städtischen Bevölkerung führt. Demgegenüber steht ein kurzfristig verhältnismäßig unelastischer Wohnungsbestand. Vor allem kleine und günstige Wohnungen fehlen. Insbesondere in diesem Segment erscheinen Fördermaßnahmen seitens der Politik wünschenswert. Denkbar sind etwa eine Senkung der Grunderwerbsteuer oder eine verstärkte Ausweisung brachliegender innerstädtischer Flächen als Bauland. Verbesserte Preisstatistiken auf lokaler Ebene könnten zudem für eine höhere Markttransparenz sorgen. Instrumente wie die Mietpreisbremse hingegen würden Investitionen in Mietwohnungen unattraktiver machen und die Wohnraumknappheit verschärfen. Housing rents in Germany have been rising for several years. Especially in major cities such as Berlin, Hamburg, and Munich, the increases have recently been higher than the German average growth rate of rents that makes up roughly two percent. The German government would like to respond to this development by introducing caps on rents for new rentals. But are rent really necessary? The growth rates of nominal rents went down markedly since the 1990s, from more than four percent at that time to about one percent on average over the past 15 years. In real terms, i.e., taking general inflation into account, rents have been even falling over certain periods. The problem of high rent hikes seems to be more common in large and university cities. One reason for this is the general trend towards reurbanization leading to significant population growth of the cities. This is coupled with a lack of elasticity of the housing stock in the short run. In particular, there is a shortage of small and inexpensive apartments. Housing policy should concentrate especially on this segment. Reduction of the real estate transfer tax or increased zoning of underused land within built-up areas for development might be an option, for example. Improved price statistics at the local level could also contribute to better market transparency. Instruments such as the Mietpreisbremse (literally a brake on rental prices), on the other hand, would make investment in rental housing less attractive and would exacerbate the housing shortage.

Studie über die Situation von privater Überschuldung betroffener Menschen in Deutschland bis einschließlich des ersten Quartals 2016: Ausgewertet wurden die Daten von 61.723 überschuldeten Haushalten in 21 Schuldnerberatungsstellen. Die Studie analysiert die Schulden, Verzugszinsen und die Kosten der Rechtsverfolgung bei den verschiedenen Gläubigergruppen und enthält eine Sonderauswertung zu digitalen Arbeitshilfen in der Schuldnerberatung.

In diesem Beitrag wird die Verwendung von VAR-Modellen für die Prognose des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in den Vereinigten Staaten analysiert. Den Ausgangspunkt bildet ein Basismodell, das neben dem realen BIP den Verbraucherpreisindex sowie einen kurzfristigen Geldmarktsatz enthält. Das Basismodell wird anschließend durch die Einbeziehung zusätzlicher makroökonomischer Variablen schrittweise erweitert. Die Prognosen der einzelnen Modelle, die als out-of-sample Prognosen generiert werden, werden für verschiedene Schätzzeiträume anhand unterschiedlicher Maße zur Überprüfung der Anpassungsgüte evaluiert. Es zeigt sich, dass die Prognosen der VAR-Modelle durchschnittlich schlechter als die eines univariaten AR(2)-Prozesses abschneiden. Die Qualität der Prognosen variiert jedoch stark in den betrachteten Schätzzeiträumen, so dass die VAR-Prognosen in einzelnen Perioden die AR(2)-Prognosen deutlich dominieren. Für die Erstellung von Prognosen erscheint es daher empfehlenswert zu sein, mehrere Modelle simultan zu betrachten.

In this paper, the authors construct a unique data set of Internet offer prices for flats in 48 large European cities across 24 countries. The data collected between January and May 2012 from 33 websites, are drawn from Internet advertisements of dwellings. Using the resulting sample of more than 1,000,000 announcements, the authors compute the quality-adjusted city-specific house prices. Based on this information, they investigate the determinants of the apartment prices. Four factors are found to be relevant for the dwelling price level using Bayesian Model Averaging: Population density, mortgage per capita, income inequality, and unemployment rate. The results are robust to applying two alternative estimation techniques: OLS and quantile regression. Based on the auhors´ estimation results they are able to identify cities where the prices are overvalued. This is a useful indication of a build-up of house price bubbles.

After a period of stagnation that lasted for almost two decades, German house prices began to grow at an accelerated pace since late 2010. Real house prices that even had been declining in 2000-2008 started to climb up steeply from the second half of 2010, followed by a recovery of construction activities. This development raised concerns about the formation of a speculative house price bubble among German policy makers and central bankers. However, empirical evidence of a misalignment of house prices from their fundamentals is mixed.

The exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. Since January 2014, the Ruble lost 50% of its value against the US Dollar. The fall of the currency started with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The impact of the conflict on Russia may have been amplified by sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, as Russia is heavily dependent on exports of natural re-sources, the oil price decline starting in Summer 2014 could be another factor behind the deterioration. By using high frequency data on nominal exchange and interest rates, oil prices, actual and unanticipated sanctions, we provide evidence on the driving forces of the Ruble exchange rate. The analysis is based on cointegrated VAR models, where fundamental long-run relationships are implicitly embedded. The results indicate that the bulk of the depreciation can be related to the decline of oil prices. In addition, unanticipated sanctions matter for the conditional volatility of the variables involved.

This article sheds light on the interaction of media, economic actors, and economic experts. Based on a unique data set of 86,000 news items rated by professional analysts of Media Tenor International and survey data, we first analyze the overall tone of the media, consumers', firms', and economic experts' opinions on the state and outlook of the economy. Second, we assess the protagonist's ability at correctly predicting GDP. Third, we use Granger causality tests to uncover who is influencing whom when it comes to the formation of opinions on the economy. We find that media reports have a significant negative bias. The economic sentiment of the media, consumers and firms does not reflect the actual situation. Finally, we find that media sentiment is not influenced by any other actor. In contrast, media appear to affect all other actors.

This article sheds light on the interaction of media, economic actors, and economic experts. Based on a unique data set of 86,000 news items rated by professional analysts of Media Tenor International and survey data, we first analyze the overall tone of the media, consumers', firms', and economic experts' opinions on the state and outlook of the economy. Second, we assess the protagonist's ability at correctly predicting GDP. Third, we use Granger causality tests to uncover who is influencing whom when it comes to the formation of opinions on the economy. We find that media reports have a significant negative bias. The economic sentiment of the media, consumers and firms does not reflect the actual situation. Finally, we find that media sentiment is not influenced by any other actor. In contrast, media appear to affect all other actors.

In the light of the unconventional monetary policies conducted by the majority of large central banks around the world, there is an intense debate about their potential impact on the prices of capital assets. Particularly in Germany, skepticism about the sustainability of the recent policy by the European Central Bank is widely spread and concerns about the emergence of a speculative price bubble are raised. However, studies on bubbles in house prices are scarce and provide mixed results. Moreover, the evidence on German property prices is either based on national indices, which are neglecting city-level heterogeneity, or based on a non-representative sample of cities, or refers to a time period that is relatively short. The present study analyzes a comprehensive data set covering 127 large German cities over the last 20 years. Using state-of-the-art methodology we test for speculative bubbles both at a national and at the city level. Furthermore, we apply two new testing approaches: panel data and principal components versions of Chow type explosive root tests. In addition, we use a more precise definition of a speculative bubble: We define price movements as bubbles when explosive growth of prices is not supported by explosive increases of rents. We find evidence for explosive price increases in many cities, especially for newly built housing. However, only in some urban housing markets, prices decouple from their fundamental values as represented by rents. On the national level, no speculative price movements could be detected. Overall, our findings indicate that the threat of a speculative price bubble in the German housing market is moderate. While we find first evidence for speculative bubbles in selected urban markets, our results indicate that the German housing market overall still appears to be in good condition. Only the small market segment of newly built apartments is affected by potentially speculative investment behavior. Indeed, when accumulated over the period 2009-2013, the newly built housing makes up only 2.2% of the housing stock in 2013. Our results are largely in line with the assessment of most housing market analysts who find that the German housing market is quite stable. However, while most discussants argue that there is no need to worry at all, we conclude that decision makers are well advised to have a close eye on the housing market and to keep track of regional market developments. While it is true that unlike in Spain or the United States, the boom in the German housing market is not credit driven on aggregate, this does not necessarily mean that housing lending on the regional level has not increased substantially.

The latest long-term projection of Germany's population implies a clear trend: even though slight growth is expected over the next decade, a decline in the future is almost inevitable. Furthermore, an ageing society combined with a low fertility rate will lead to massive shrinkage of the working-age population. What are the social and economic consequences of these developments? Is a decline in economic growth unavoidable? We present the results of the long-term population projection and summarize the various effects population ageing may have on Germany.

Die deutsche Wirtschaft hält Kurs und wird in diesem Jahr wohl um 1,8 Prozent wachsen, im kommenden Jahr, bei leicht anziehender Dynamik, um 1,9 Prozent. Damit hält das DIW Berlin an seiner Prognose vom Sommer dieses Jahres fest. Der Beschäftigungsaufbau setzt sich fort; die Arbeitslosenquote sinkt in diesem Jahr auf 6,4 Prozent und verharrt dort. Die Inflation ist aufgrund der deutlich gesunkenen Ölpreise in diesem Jahr niedrig und liegt bei 0,4 Prozent; im kommenden Jahr beläuft sie sich auf 1,4 Prozent. Die Zuwächse der Weltwirtschaft dürften sich im Prognosezeitraum etwas erhöhen. Vor allem in den Industrieländern sorgen die erneut gesunkenen Energiepreise für weiterhin niedrige Inflationsraten. Hinzu kommen die in vielen Ländern stetigen Verbesserungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Zusammen stützt dies die Kaufkraft der Haushalte und den Konsum. Im Euroraum schreitet die Erholung voran. Der Außenwert des Euro ist schwach, die Geldpolitik sehr expansiv und wichtige Handelspartner wachsen kräftig, so dass sich der Konsum gut entwickeln und im weiteren Verlauf auch die Investitionstätigkeit der Unternehmen erholen dürfte. Für die Schwellenländer ist zunächst nicht mit kräftigem Wachstum zu rechnen. Stärkere Schwankungen an den Finanzmärkten führen zu schlechteren Finanzierungsbedingungen. Erst im kommenden Jahr, wenn etwa Russland und Brasilien die Rezession hinter sich lassen, dürfte sich die Konjunktur etwas stabilisieren. Die deutschen Exporte folgen weiter ihrem Aufwärtstrend: Ein kräftigerer Aufschwung in wichtigen Industrieländern, aber auch die fortgesetzte Erholung im Euroraum kompensieren die etwas schwächere Nachfrage aus den Schwellenländern. Per saldo trägt der Außenhandel jedoch kaum noch zum Wachstum bei, denn die Importe werden im Zuge der dynamischen Binnenkonjunktur deutlich steigen. Der Konsum stützt das Wachstum der deutschen Wirtschaft. Der Beschäftigungsaufbau setzt sich fort - die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen dürfte etwa mit dem Tempo der vorangegangenen Quartale steigen - und die Löhne legen spürbar zu, in diesem Jahr auch wegen der Einführung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns. Hinzu kommen deutliche Zuwächse bei den Sozialleistungen; dies liegt vor allem an kräftig steigenden Renten, aber auch den Flüchtlingen fließen Leistungen zu, die den privaten Verbrauch anschieben dürften. Die Investitionen werden sich dagegen insgesamt eher verhalten entwickeln. Die Sorgen um die Zukunft des Euroraums dürften die Investitionspläne dämpfen. Zudem bestehen erhebliche Unsicherheiten über die Entwicklung wichtiger Absatzmärkte, insbesondere in China, die sich zuletzt sogar intensiviert haben. Hinzu kommen ungelöste geopolitische Konflikte, vor allem die Spannungen mit Russland. Dennoch zeichnet sich eine moderate Ausweitung der Investitionen in Ausrüstungen ab. Bei robuster Auslandsnachfrage und ausgelasteten Kapazitäten in der Industrie dürften sie im Verlauf sogar anziehen, zumal die dynamische Binnennachfrage Impulse geben dürfte. Die Risiken für die Konjunktur bleiben indes hoch und haben zuletzt sogar zugenommen. Die bevorstehende Zinswende in den USA könnte zu unerwartet starken Kapitalabflüssen aus den Schwellenländern führen; dies könnte angesichts der hohen privaten Verschuldung - gerade auch weil diese oftmals in Fremdwährung besteht - die konjunkturelle Dynamik in diesen Ländern zusätzlich dämpfen. Einer deutlichen Abkühlung der chinesischen Wirtschaft dürfte die Regierung zwar mit expansiven Maßnahmen begegnen, allerdings besteht das Risiko, dass sie nicht rechtzeitig oder aber nicht ausreichend gegensteuern kann. Auch hat sich in der Vergangenheit gezeigt, dass die Unsicherheit über die weitere Entwicklung der europäischen Integration schnell wieder aufflammen kann. Zudem weist die zuletzt hohe Volatilität der Ölpreise darauf hin, dass sich auf dem Markt noch kein stabiles Gleichgewicht eingestellt hat. Die damit verbundene Planungsunsicherheit könnte die Dispositionen vieler Unternehmen stärker dämpfen als hier unterstellt. The German economy is on track, and will likely grow by 1.8 percent this year; in the coming year, with a slight increase in dynamics, it will grow by 1.9 percent. With these figures DIW Berlin confirms its forecast from this summer. Employment growth continues; the unemployment rate will decrease this year to 6.4 percent, where it will remain in 2016. Due to the sharp drop in oil prices this year, inflation is low and stands at 0.4 percent; next year it will climb to 1.4 percent. Global economic growth is likely to experience a slight increase during the forecast period. In the industrialized countries in particular, the renewed drop in energy prices keeps inflation rates low. In addition, many countries have experienced steady improvements in labor markets. Together, these two factors support consumption and the purchasing power of households. Recovery in the euro area is moving forward. The euro's external value is low, the monetary policy is very expansionary, and major trading partners are growing vigorously; consumption is likely to develop well, and in the course of time, corporate investment is also expected to recover. In the emerging markets, growth will remain subdued this year. Higher financial market volatility is leading to deterioration in financing conditions. They are expected to contribute more to global growth next year, when for example Russia and Brazil have emerged from recession. German exports continue in their upward trend: A strong upturn in major industrial countries, as well as the continued recovery within the euro area, are compensating for the somewhat weaker demand from the emerging countries. In net terms, however, foreign trade is still barely contributing to growth, because imports will increase significantly as part of the dynamic domestic economy. Consumption is supporting the growth of the German economy. The low inflation substantially supports consumers' purchasing power. But nominal incomes are also experiencing strong increases: The employment growth continues - the number of employed individuals is expected to rise at roughly the rate of previous quarters - and wages have noticeably increased, also due to the introduction of the minimum wage. Other important factors are the significant increases in social benefits; these are primarily due to a sharp increase in pensions, but also to the benefits being received by the refugees, which should give private consumption an additional boost. In contrast, investment will be rather subdued overall. Concerns about the future of the euro area are likely to dampen investment plans. Furthermore, considerable uncertainties about the development of important markets have recently intensified, particularly in China. There are also unresolved geopolitical conflicts, especially the tensions with Russia. Nevertheless, a moderate expansion of investment in equipment is emerging. With robust foreign demand and fully utilized capacities in the industry, these investments are expected to rise over time, especially since the dynamic domestic demand should provide an impetus. However, the risks to the economy remain high and in fact have recently increased. The impending interest rate turnaround in the U.S. could lead to unexpectedly strong capital outflows from the emerging countries; given the high private debt - especially since it is often in foreign currency - this could dampen economic momentum in these countries as well. Although a significant slump in the Chinese economy is expected to be handled with expansionary measures by the government, there is the risk that they may not take sufficient countermeasures in time. It has also been shown in the past that uncertainty about the further development of European integration can flare up quickly. In addition, the recently high volatility of oil prices shows that a new stable equilibrium still has not been established on the market. The planning uncertainty bound up with this could dampen the disposition of many corporations more strongly than assumed here.

Do timing and time diversification improve the average investor?s stock market return? Contrary to literature?s scenario of wealthy investors, average investors invest each month over life. Many purchases prevent investors from buying at peak, but horizons decrease, giving latter investments less time to offset losses. This paper accommodates timing using internal rates of return, facilitating the comparison of wealthy and average investors. One to 480 months investments in S&P and downward trending Nikkei, are compared. In conclusion, average investor?s risk and return ratios improve with horizon and, compared to wealthy investors, in bullish and deteriorate in bearish markets.

The surge in the German house prices starting in 2010 raised fears about the emergence of a speculative bubble. Given a local nature of housing markets, it is not clear to what extent the bubble, if any, is spread across different cities. In this paper, we test for speculative house price bubbles in 127 large German cities over the last 20 years. Along with testing bubbles for each city separately, we apply two new testing approaches: a panel data and principal components version of explosive root tests. We define bubble as an explosive growth of prices that is not supported by the rent increase. Therefore, to check for the existence of bubbles, we examine prices, rents, and price-to-rent ratios. We find evidence for explosive price increases in many cities, especially for the case of newly built housing. However, only in few urban housing markets prices decouple from their fundamental values. On the national level, we do not see evidence for speculative price movements. Overall, we find that the danger of a build-up of a speculative price bubble in the German housing market is rather moderate.

Expectations form the basis of economic decisions of market participants in an uncertain world. Sentiment indicators reflect those expectations and thus have a proven track record for predicting economic variables. However, respondents of surveys perceive the world to a large extent with the help of media. So far, mainly very crude media information, such as word-count indices, has been used in the prediction of macroeconomic and financial variables. In this paper, we employ a rich data set provided by Media Tenor International, based on the sentiment analysis of all relevant media information in Germany from 2001 to 2014, whose results are transformed into several monthly indices. German industrial production is predicted in a real-time out-of-sample forecasting experiment using more than 17,000 models formed of all possible combinations with a maximum of 3 out of 48 macroeconomic, survey, and media indicators. It is demonstrated that media data are indispensable when it comes to the prediction of German industrial production both for individual models and as a part of combined forecasts. They increase reliability by improving accuracy and reducing instability of the forecasts, particularly during the recent global financial crisis.

The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models is employed in a multi-country set up and approximately 42 Mio. pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts of GDP are evaluated. The results show that, on average, the knee-jerk transformation of the data is at best harmless.

The introduced sanctions against Russia, which at the moment are on a level of travel bans and asset freezes against a limited group of individuals and firms, are unlikely to trigger a profound change in Russian foreign policy. This can primarily be attributed to the fact that the economic impact of the sanctions is rather low. However, the current political tensions have had an impact on financial and non-financial indicators, including a possibly persistent effect on government bond yields.

Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird in diesem Jahr um 1,5 Prozent und im kommenden Jahr um 1,8 Prozent wachsen. Die Arbeitslosenquote steigt von 6,7 Prozent in diesem Jahr auf 7,0 Prozent im kommenden Jahr. Die Inflation bleibt in beiden Jahren niedrig; sie liegt in diesem Jahr bei 1,0 Prozent und im kommenden Jahr bei 1,5 Prozent. Das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft war im ersten Halbjahr 2014 deutlich geringer als im Jahresverlauf 2013. Dabei ging das Expansionstempo in den Schwellenländern bis zuletzt weiter zurück. Die Industrieländer im Aggregat haben hingegen nach einem schwachen Start ins Jahr im zweiten Quartal etwas stärker zugelegt. Im weiteren Verlauf wird sich das Wachstumstempo der Weltwirtschaft erhöhen. Die allmählich anziehende wirtschaftliche Entwicklung wird sich in den Industrieländern nach und nach in einer Verbesserung der Situation auf dem Arbeitsmarkt und in steigenden Löhnen niederschlagen. Zusammen mit niedrigen Inflationsraten dürfte dies den Konsum anregen. Dabei wird die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Europa und insbesondere im Euroraum zunächst gedämpft verlaufen, da die hohe öffentliche und private Verschuldung die Nachfrage weiterhin bremst. Außerdem belasten vor allem hier die geopolitische Krisen. In Deutschland wird die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung zurzeit durch die Verunsicherung in Zusammenhang mit den geopolitischen Krisen gedämpft. Insbesondere der Außenhandel und die Investitionen nehmen vorübergehend nur moderat zu. Im kommenden Jahr, wenn die Verunsicherung sich annahmegemäß nach und nach aufgelöst hat, wird die deutsche Wirtschaft wieder auf ihren moderaten Aufwärtskurs einschwenken. Obgleich die Ausfuhren durch die geopolitischen Krisen gedämpft werden, geht dabei von den Exporten der größte Wachstumsimpuls aus. Allerdings werden die Importe Im Zuge der anziehenden Binnennachfrage ähnlich dynamisch zulegen. Der Überschuss der Leistungsbilanz wird ebenfalls leicht steigen, auf jeweils etwa sieben Prozent. Wenn die Verunsicherung der Unternehmen im kommenden Jahr abgeebbt ist, werden die Investitionen an Tempo gewinnen. Zudem wird der private Konsum durch die anhaltend gute Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt merklich angeregt, denn der Beschäftigungsaufbau setzt sich im Zuge der expandierenden Produktion fort - wenngleich er etwas an Schwung verliert. Die Unternehmen begegnen der steigenden Nachfrage aber auch dadurch, dass sie die Arbeitszeit pro Kopf ausweiten. Alles in allem nimmt die Zahl der Beschäftigten in diesem Jahr um 330 000 Personen und im kommenden Jahr um 120 000 Personen zu. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen sinkt in diesem Jahr leicht auf 2,91 Millionen Personen. Im nächsten Jahr wird sie - wegen des migrations- und verhaltensbedingt kräftigen Anstiegs der Zahl der Erwerbspersonen - leicht auf 3,06 Millionen Personen steigen. Der Finanzierungssaldo des Staates wird in beiden Jahren des Prognosezeitraums in Relation zum nominalen Bruttoinlandsprodukt - wie im Jahr 2013 - bei 0,3 Prozent liegen. Der strukturelle Überschuss beträgt in diesem Jahr 0,7 Prozent und im nächsten Jahr 0,5 Prozent. The German economy will grow by 1.5 percent this year. In the coming year, the increase in GDP will be somewhat higher at 1.8 percent. The jobless rate will be 6.7 percent this year but it will rise by three-tenths of a percentage point in the coming year. Inflation will remain moderate in both years; prices will rise by 1.0 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2015. Global economic growth was far more sluggish in the first half of 2014 than throughout 2013. While industrialized countries forged ahead more strongly in the second quarter after a poor start to the year, the pace of expansion in emerging economies has fallen slightly. After a weak first half, the pace of growth of the global economy is likely to increase somewhat. The gradually improving situation on the labor market, particularly in industrialized countries, will soon result in rising wages. Along with low inflation rates, this should stimulate consumption and also investment activities by companies. In Europe and in particular in the Eurozone, growth will be slow as high public and private indebtedness weighs on demand. Moreover, geopolitical risks are a drag. Overall, the average annual growth rate of the global economy will reach 3.4 and 3.8 percent in 2014 and 2015, respectively. The German economy will continue its recovery although the dynamic should remain moderate as a result of the sluggish world economy and geopolitical tensions, and only gather speedslowly. In particular foreign trade and investment will grow only slightly. Next year, when geopolitical risks are assumed to have vanished, the German economy will re- gather its moderate pace of expansion. Despite geopolitical risk, growth impulses are coming mainly from increasing foreign demand. In the wake of rising domestic demand, imports will develop equally dynamically. The current account balance surplus will rise slightly to a good seven percent. Investments which marked a tangible upward trend in the winter months of 2013 and 2014 will be hampered by the uncertainty but remain positive over the forecast period as a whole. The prolonged favorable situation on the labor market will stimulate consumption appreciably. Jobs will continue to be created in the course of expanding production, albeit with some loss of momentum. Companies are also meeting the increasing demand by making their employees work longer. Altogether, employment will increase by 330 000 persons this year and by 120 000 persons next year. The number of unemployed will fall slightly this year to 2.91 million. Next year, it will increase slightly to 3.06 million, mainly due to migration and changes in work behavior. As in 2013, the public deficit will remain at 0.3 percent of nominal GDP in both years of the forecast period. The structural surplus this year is 0.7 percent and 0.5 percent next year.

Returns merely based on one purchasing price of an asset are uninformative for people regularly contributing to their old-age provision. Here, each purchase has an influence on the outcome. Still, they are commonly used in finance literature, giving an overly optimistic view of expected long-term stock market returns and risks. Moreover, around business cycle turning points when volatility is high, these differences are accentuated so that the timing of market entries and exists differ substantially. This article compares risk and returns for regular and lump-sum investors for all possible intervals of investments in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ranging from one to 480 months from January 1934 to April 2013. Moreover, the optimal timing for the two types of investors in the run-up to business cycle turning points are contrasted. Lump-sum returns for forty year-horizons overstate regular contributors yields by 1.4 percentage points implying a forty percent higher terminal value. The Sharpe ratio of lump-sum investments is about 260 percent higher than for regular contributors, and the risk of negative returns disappears for horizons that are six years shorter. Increasing contributions deteriorate risk and returns. While lump-sum investors have eight months more time to switch to riskless assets before a contraction, regular contributors may return five months earlier to the stock market than lump-sum investors.

Die deutsche Wirtschaft folgt einem moderaten Aufwärtstrend. Zwar war die wirtschaftliche Dynamik im zweiten Quartal hoch, diese Entwicklung dürfte aber durch Sondereffekte überzeichnet sein. Im weiteren Verlauf wird die Produktion dann stetig zunehmen; 2014 liegt das Wachstum bei 1,7 Prozent, nach 0,4 Prozent in diesem Jahr. Nach einem schwachen Jahresauftakt hat die Weltwirtschaft im zweiten Quartal etwas Fahrt aufgenommen. Vor allem die Industrieländer lassen trotz anhaltend restriktiv wirkender Finanzpolitik eine erhöhte wirtschaftliche Dynamik erkennen; geringe Inflationsraten und eine sich verbessernde oder zumindest stabilisierende Arbeitsmarktsituation stützen den Konsum. Im Zuge zurückgehender Unsicherheit und anhaltend expansiver Geldpolitik dürfte im weiteren Verlauf auch die bisher zögerliche Investitionstätigkeit an die kräftigere Entwicklung des Konsums anknüpfen. Hingegen ist in vielen Schwellenländern aufgrund der verhaltenen binnen- und außenwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung das Expansionstempo gedämpfter. Alles in allem dürfte sich das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft beschleunigen und im kommenden Jahr bei knapp vier Prozent liegen, nach etwa drei Prozent im laufenden Jahr. In Deutschland war die konjunkturelle Dynamik im zweiten Quartal kräftig; diese Entwicklung war aber durch Nachholeffekte in der Bauwirtschaft infolge des strengen Winters überzeichnet. Im dritten Quartal dürfte das Wachstum etwas schwächer ausfallen, denn die Produktion in der Industrie wird nur zögerlich ausgeweitet, zuletzt war sie sogar rückläufig. Die Auftragseingänge lassen weitere, wenngleich nur moderate Zuwächse erwarten. Die gute und sich weiter aufhellende Stimmung in den Unternehmen des verarbeitenden Gewerbes spricht dafür, dass die Produktion im weiteren Verlauf anziehen wird. Die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ist nach wie vor gut und der Beschäftigungsaufbau setzt sich - wenn auch in etwas abgeschwächtem Tempo fort. Die zunehmende Zahl an Arbeitnehmern spiegelt sich allerdings nicht in einem entsprechenden Rückgang bei der Zahl der Arbeitslosen wider; stattdessen profitiert der Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland auch im kommenden Jahr von Wanderungsgewinnen. Auch die Arbeitslosenquote verharrt in diesem und im nächsten Jahr bei knapp sieben Prozent. Die Lohnentwicklung wird etwas schwächer als in den vergangenen zwei Jahren, aber weiterhin kräftig sein. In einem Umfeld moderater Teuerung - die Inflationsrate dürfte in diesem Jahr bei 1,6 Prozent und im kommenden bei 1,9 Prozent liegen - wird der private Konsum die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung merklich antreiben. Dies lässt auch die Investitionen nach und nach zunehmen, die zudem durch die sich im Zuge der weltwirtschaftlichen Erholung belebenden deutschen Exporte gestützt werden. Aufgrund der binnenwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung legen die Importe allerdings etwas stärker zu, so dass der Außenhandel per Saldo das Wachstum leicht dämpft. Wie bereits im Jahr 2012 werden die öffentlichen Haushalte auch im Prognosezeitraum mit einem Überschuss abschließen; in Relation zum nominalen Bruttoinlandsprodukt liegt er in diesem Jahr bei 0,2 und im kommenden Jahr bei 0,3 Prozent. Die günstige Entwicklung der öffentlichen Finanzen eröffnet Spielräume, die nun entschieden genutzt werden sollten, um das potentielle Wachstum der deutschen Wirtschaft zu erhöhen. So besteht in Deutschland mittlerweile erheblicher Nachholbedarf bei den öffentlichen Investitionen, allein um die Substanz zu erhalten. Gerade weil die Finanzlage der Kommunen sich zusehends verbessert, ist jetzt ein guter Zeitpunkt für eine Stärkung der wirtschaftspolitischen Aktivitäten in diesem Bereich. The German economy is following a moderate upward trend. At 0.7 per cent, growth in the second quarter was strong compared to the first quarter, but this development was overstated by special effects. In the course of the next quarters production accelerates. In the coming year, growth will reach 1.7 per cent. After a weak start into the year, the global economy picked up somewhat in the second quarter. Overall, the momentum has shifted towards industrialized countries where, despite limited scope for fiscal policy to stimulate the economy, low inflation rates and the improving or at least stabilizing labor market situation are fostering consumption. As a result of declining uncertainty and still expansionary global monetary policy, previously subdued investment activity builds on the upward movement of consumption and the thus stimulated revival of world trade. On the opposite, the pace of expansion in many emerging countries remains subdued due to both weak domestic and foreign demand. Altogether, the world economy continues to recover due to the impetus from industrial countries and is expected to grow at about four per cent in the coming year, after three per cent in 2013. Growth in Germany was strong in the second quarter, but this development was boosted by a catch-up effect in the construction industry due to the severe winter. In the current quarter, growth is expected to be slightly weaker since industrial production is growing only at a moderate pace and has even fallen recently. However, new orders indicate a mild upward movement of the economy thereafter. In addition, the continued positive sentiment in the manufacturing sector signals an increase in production. The labor market conditions are still favorable and employment growth is expected to continue - albeit at a slightly lower rate. Nevertheless, the increase in employment is not reflected in a corresponding decrease in persons unemployed; instead, the German labor market is profiting from positive net migration. Hence, this year and next year, the unemployment rate remains at seven per cent. Wages will rise less than in the previous two years, but still at a tangible rate. Price increases will remain moderate. An inflation rate of 1.6 per cent is expected for this year and of 1.9 per cent for the coming year. Against this backdrop, private consumption continues to be a main pillar of the expansion. The recovering global economy will lead to rising exports and will subsequently encourage companies to invest more dynamically. However, imports - driven by robust domestic demand - will increase by more than exports such that a negative current account slightly curbs growth. The public sector is expected to have a surplus in the forecast period; it amounts to 0.2 per cent in relation to nominal GDP this year and to 0.3 per cent next year. Economic policy should use the existing scope decisively to enhance the growth potential of the economy. By now, there exists considerably backlog in investment, even to maintain the current level of the capital stock. Given the improving fiscal balances of the municipals in particular, it is time for them to boost public investment.

Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird wegen des schwachen Winterhalbjahres in diesem Jahr nur um 0,4 Prozent wachsen. Allerdings dürfte die Schwächephase wohl bereits überwunden sein; im kommenden Jahr wird das Wachstum mit 1,8 Prozent kräftig sein. Die Weltkonjunktur ist wieder auf einen Aufwärtstrend eingeschwenkt; die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in vielen Schwellenländern, aber auch in den USA und Japan hat zuletzt etwas Fahrt aufgenommen, vielerorts unterstützt durch eine expansive Wirtschaftspolitik. Darüber hinaus haben die zur Stabilisierung der Finanzmärkte im Euroraum geschaffenen Instrumente einen spürbaren Rückgang der Unsicherheit mit sich gebracht. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist aber nach wie vor hoch und die Verschuldung - öffentlich wie auch privat - muss weiter deutlich zurückgeführt werden. Im Euroraum wird die Wirtschaft zunächst weiter schrumpfen, allerdings bei Weitem nicht mehr so stark. Vielerorts zeichnet sich eine Ausweitung der Exporte ab, die zum Teil auch auf eine Verbesserung der preislichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zurückzuführen ist. In vielen Krisenländern ist der Abbau von Überkapazitäten merklich vorangeschritten und damit verbundene dämpfende Effekte fallen nach und nach weg. Ab dem Jahreswechsel 2013/14 dürfte die Wirtschaft auch in den Krisenländern wachsen. Due to a weak winter half-year, the German economy will only grow by 0.4 percent in 2013. However, the economic slowdown seems to be coming to an end now; growth in 2014 is expected to be above average at 1.8 percent. The global economy is experiencing an upswing again; growth in many emerging markets as well as in the US and Japan has recently gained momentum, facilitated in many places by an expansive economic policy. Moreover, the mechanisms created to stabilize financial markets in the euro area have noticeably alleviated uncertainty. However, high unemployment and the need to reduce the high level of debt - public as well as private - remain a problem. The euro area economy will continue to shrink for the time being, but the extent of the economic slowdown has already diminished significantly. A rise in exports is on the horizon in many places, which can be partly attributed to improved competitiveness. In many crisis countries, there has been considerable progress in reducing excess capacities, resulting in dampening effects being increasingly eliminated. By the beginning of 2014, positive growth rates can be expected again in the crisis countries, too.

Around the turn of the year 2005/2006, the Russian freezing of natural gas exports to the Ukraine led to a European gas crisis. Using event study technique, we first investigate whether the Russian announcement of suspension of gas deliveries, this suspension itself as well as its withdrawal, had an effect on unsystematic volatility of European energy stocks. Secondly, we measure event effects on stock returns, taking volatility into account. Our results suggest that the announcement of the crisis and therefore a rise of Western Europe?s energy cost and risk tended to increase market expectations with respect to energy-related firms. In contrast, market uncertainty increased when Russia reopened its valves. One reason for these findings could be windfall profits of energy-related companies due to increasing resource and electricity prices. The existence of event-induced volatility confirms our methodological approach in order to test for abnormal returns.

The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models is employed in a multi-country setup and approximately 16 Mio. pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts are evaluated. The results show that, on average, the knee-jerk transformation of the data is at best harmless.

Given the relatively low computational effort involved, vector autoregressive (VAR)models are frequently used for macroeconomic forecasting purposes. However, the usuallylimited number of observations obliges the researcher to focus on a relatively smallset of key variables, possibly discarding valuable information. This paper proposes aneasy way out of this dilemma: Do not make a choice. A wide range of theoretical andempirical literature has already demonstrated the superiority of combined to single-modelbased forecasts. Thus, the estimation and combination of parsimonious VARs, employingevery reasonably estimable combination of the relevant variables, pose a viable path ofdealing with the degrees of freedom restriction. The results of a broad empirical analysisbased on pseudo out-of-sample forecasts indicate that attributing equal weights systematicallyout-performs single models as well as most more refined weighting schemes interms of forecast accuracy and especially in terms of forecast stability.