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This report gives an overview of the activities, results and impacts of INTAROS Work Package 6 (WP6). The aim of WP6 is to demonstrate how an integrated observation system can be of specific benefit for society at local, regional or pan-Arctic scale. Through WP6 we show the capability of an enhanced Arctic Observation System towards advancing the economic role of the Arctic by providing support for better-documented processes and better-informed decisions within key sectors such as shipping, petroleum, fishing, and tourism. Further, WP6 demonstrates how the Arctic Observation system may be applied to further develop the accuracy of climate models, improve the understanding of biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem functioning, enhance fisheries and environmental management, increase the level of preparedness towards natural hazards, and develop better management and decision making concepts for selected local communities. Through WP6 INTAROS demonstrates enhanced data search and retrieval, assimilation into models, validation of estimated and projected climate parameters, scientific analysis, decision-support and policy-making. Following a general introduction to INTAROS WP6, eight chapters summarize, for each topic covered, the main activities and results, data and models used, stakeholder/user benefits, and further development and exploitation of results. The topics span broadly and target very different end-user groups but they all share the same overall challenge: how to synthesize data across time and space from different sources, formats and scientific disciplines into aggregated synoptic data products that are relevant for end-users. The following topics are addressed: Improving skill of model predictions in the Arctic, Applying observations and models for environmental and fisheries management, Ice-ocean statistics, Remote sensing applications, Natural hazards in the Arctic, Greenhouse gas exchange in the Arctic, Case studies of community-based observing systems and Benefits of ocean observing for blue growth in the Arctic. The report then describes concrete showcases, software applications. Selected main results across WP6 are then presented, before the report ends with conclusions and perspectives.

The aim of the INTAROS Revised Requirement Report has been to: Capitalise on INTAROS achievements Take note of recently articulated user need from the EU and international organisations Define more concrete requirements for the identified essential variables Address gaps in the present observing system Requirements for in situ observations address resolution in space and time, quality and timeliness. Users of data generally have clearly articulated needs for time resolution, quality and timeliness, while defining the spatial resolution gives rise to serious considerations because: There is a need to find a balance between what ideally would be “nice to have” and what is feasible to achieve from a technical, logistic and especially economic point of view There is still a debate among scientists on how to address the spatial resolution: A gridded format with fixed horizontal and vertical distances between observation points Identifying key location with great impact and representativeness Requirements for atmospheric, ocean and land essential variables has been identified and discussed using the WMO OSCAR and Copernicus Systems – both using a gridded approach – as a baseline for a critical review. The performed gap analysis points to severe lack of observations in general and in the central Arctic in particular, and lack of sustainability since a majority of observations are based on time-limited campaigns. Additionally, there is a need for investments in developments of observation technology, incl. data communication and data management The performed requirement and gap analysis results in the following recommendations: Ensure work towards a robustly substantiated definition of spatial resolution in an Arctic observing system involving analytic tools such as numerical models (OSE’s and OSSE’s), cost and feasibility studies Establish an international coordination and governance structure involving nations, SAON, WMO, IOC, EU Copernicus,, and representatives of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communitiesto: Ensure a forum for dialogue between users of Arctic information, observation program leaders and sensor and application developers to understand evolving needs and capacities Secure long-term coordination and continuation of measurements Ensure sustained funding to a fit-for-purpose Arctic Observing System Enhance and optimize multidisciplinary observations Ensure open and free real time data exchange following the FAIR principle Increase involvement of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities in data collection and data integration Promote training and teaching as a key value and fundament for capacity building Initiate data rescue activities to ingest existing data presently not freely available incl.Russian data Pursue innovative cost-effective technological solutions for Arctic observations securing continuous Near Real Time data flow from this harsh environment also during wintertime INTAROS experiences suggest that cross-weaving scientist- and community-based monitoring programs can lead to improved information products and enhanced efficiency and sustainability of observing programs. Moreover, it can promote stronger linkages between environmental monitoring programs and government decision-making processes.

In the Arctic, it is a priority of governments and Indigenous peoples’ organizations to increase the spatial and temporal coverage of environmental observations. One solution is to enhance community-based and citizen science observations. We piloted a series of people-based observing activities in Disko Bay, Greenland, and in Svalbard. Our aims were to examine the feasibility of specific community-based and citizen science observing and networking activities and, at the same time, to assess their potential for wider use. We assessed the observing activities against six criteria: (1) the cost, (2) the need for expertise, (3) the ability to detect trends, (4) the ability to support decision-making, (5) the potential for enhancing local stakeholder capacity, and (6) the capacity to inform international monitoring. The results of our tests are presented and discussed in this report. The key findings are summarized below. In Disko Bay, fishing and hunting are the most important livelihoods whereas, in Svalbard, it is tourism and science. In both areas, the susceptibility to natural disasters is increasing, and landslides and earthquakes have recently led to loss of lives. Through dialogue with civil society organizations, research institutions and the local authorities, we identified five community-based and citizen science observing and networking activities which we co-facilitated with many partners in Disko Bay and Svalbard between 2016 and 2019: − Garage-type geophone devices to observe natural hazard events − Expedition cruise operator-based observing − Focus group discussions with fishermen and hunters − Interviews and workshop dialogues to inform urban development − Linking social science climate research with the needs of the decision-makers. Citizen seismology. We tested the use of four garage-type geophone devices, two in each area, over two years. We compared the citizen-generated seismic data from the geophones with existing scientist-executed seismic sensors. In Disko Bay, the citizen geophones enabled the location of 23 events and improved the location of 209 events, thus significantly improving our understanding of the cryo-generated and tectonic events that occurred in the area whereas, in Svalbard, it was impossible to find suitable locations for the instruments. Citizen seismology may be useful in Arctic communities where the buildings are constructed on bedrock and trusted relationships exist between government agencies, scientists and the local residents. If seismic events detected by the geophones are discussed with the communities and the authorities, citizen seismology may help build community awareness of natural hazards and contribute to improved decisions on safety. Expedition cruise operator-based observing. Cruise guests already make observations of the environment in the Arctic but the number of attributes observed and the volume of records are limited and very few of the observations are used by decision-makers. We initiated a dialogue about coordinated expedition cruise operator-based observing with the expedition cruise industry, scientists, and the authorities. Together, we tested the use of six citizen science programs among six cruise operators in Disko Bay and Svalbard for one cruise season. A total of 165 people contributed observations, mostly bird checklists to eBird and marine mammal encounters with photos to Happywhale. Cruise guests and cruise guides can contribute large volumes of observations from areas visited by expedition cruises during the Arctic cruise season, April to September. Enabling factors may include: (1) equipping cruise vessels with tablets that allow for easy upload of records, (2) prompt feedback to observers and decision-makers directly from the citizen science programs through the use of digital platforms, and (3) a well-funded intermediate organization facilitating communication. Further work is necessary to fully understand the feasibility and potential of coordinated expedition cruise operator based environmental observing in the Arctic. Focus group discussions with resource users. In Disko Bay, we tested focus group discussions with fishermen and hunters for monitoring and managing living resources as part of the PISUNA program (Piniakkanik Sumiiffinni Nalunaarsuineq). A total of 30 fishermen and hunters summarized observations, from 4,287 field trips, of 33 attributes, including sea-ice and climate/weather, plus 10 fish, 11 mammal and 10 bird taxa, over four years. The community members used the observations as a basis for submitting 197 management proposals to the local and central authorities. Focus group discussions with resource users are useful where community members depend on living resources for their livelihood and where government policies are supportive of collaborative resource management. To achieve their full potential, focus group discussions require government staff time and funds to be prioritized for supervising the fishermen’s and hunters’ monitoring and for making decisions and taking action on the basis of the management proposals. Networking for people-based observing. In Svalbard, we initiated a dialogue with local actors on environmental observing so as to build trust and long-term collaboration while addressing both ethical, democratic and cultural dimensions. We facilitated interviews and organized workshop dialogues to inform urban development. We also co-established a digital platform for linking social science climate research with the needs of the decision-makers, thereby promoting experience exchange, coordination and communication. The initiatives contributed to important community dialogues during the Covid-19 crisis in Svalbard. From observation to action. The three piloted activities that involved field-based data-gathering in Disko Bay and Svalbard represent approaches with varying levels of participant and scientist involvement and with different linkages to decision processes and action. The geophones case is an example of automated data collection with Arctic residents. The role of the participants is limited to installing the geophones and providing electricity and Internet. The expedition cruise operator-based observing is an example of human production of data by visitors to the Arctic. The observers are cruise guests and guides, and their role is limited to making observations and taking measurements and photos. In both cases, if the data is to inform decision-making, it will need to be interpreted and analyzed by scientists and the findings made available to the appropriate decision-making bodies. In the third tested field-based data-gathering activity, the focus group discussions with resource users, the participants not only submit records to scientists but they also themselves interpret and discuss their records, and propose management interventions to the authorities. In this case, communicating findings and proposing decisions are in-built components of the monitoring process.

The main goal of Task 3.2 is to deliver in situ ocean and sea ice observations collected during two INTAROS field seasons and to provide recommendations for future implementation of the moored observing system north of Svalbard that can be applied to define a roadmap for observing future changes in the Arctic. The aim is to make comprehensive observations of the ongoing climate and environmental change that can be also applied as a validation tool for conceptual and three-dimensional modelling. This report describes the first implementation and operational use of the observing systems. Data delivery and report on results of the observing systems North Svalbard. The first implementation was deployed successfully in August 2018 using the Coast Guard icebreaker KV Svalbard and retrieved with KV Svalbard in August/September and with the research icebreaker RV Kronprins Håkon in September and November 2019. All recovered instrument and sensor provided full data return therefore a full annual cycle of multidisciplinary data was obtained that can be employed to address the following goals: −Document the performance of instruments and systems selected/integrated for measurements of key ocean physical variables on INTAROS moorings, including temperature, salinity and ocean currents −Document the performance of instruments and sensors selected/integrated for measurements of key biogeochemical variables including dissolved oxygen, nutrients and carbonate system parameters on the multidisciplinary BGC11mooring −Document the performance of novel instruments selected for sea ice measurements on the moorings along the INTAROS (22°E) and A-TWAIN (31°E) lines north of Svalbard −Document the performance of novel combination of ADCP with echo sounder selected for ocean currents and zooplankton/small fish abundance measurements −Document the performance and the state of technical development for a moored multisensor Octopus system for biological measurements, including an Underwater Vision Profiler, nutrient sensor and chlorophyll-a and CDOM fluorometer −Document the performance and technical development for microplastic samplers −Document the performance of technologies and deployment methodology for the sensors mounted at the seafloor, including Ocean Bottom Pressure sensors and Ocean Bottom Seismometers

This report presents higher-level products from existing terrestrial and cryosphere measurements, developed within INTAROS WP2 by applying new methodologies for data processing and derivation of new quantities. The report presents both satellite-derived products and products from in situ observing systems within the terrestrial sphere and the cryosphere. The exploited higher-level products described in this report are evaluated with respect to requirements, capacities and gaps and recommendations in the companion report D2.7. &nbsp

De-aggregation of probabilistic hazard assessment (PSHA) results show that the dominating source of vibrations with engineering significance to NPP safety is from mid-magnitude earthquakes located at close distances to the plant. This region is called the “near-field” and is known for its particularities when compared to “far-field”. For example, significant duration of the ground motions is shorter, corresponding to S-wave and surface wave arrivals; there are distinctive high velocity peaks in the ground motions and vertical shaking components may exceed horizontal components. These particularities are known to have design consequences, but are often overlooked by engineering codes.In Fennoscandia, near-field observations of larger magnitude (M>3) earthquakes are missing, and modelling is the only way to supplement the existing empirical data underspinning the attenuation equations in the PSHA studies.During the project year 2015, we confirmed the near-source effect in small magnitude earthquake recordings in Finland and developed modeling skills and tools to generate synthetic, near-field accelerograms starting from process of the fault rupture.Within this report (2016), we describe the modelling techniques and compare the modelling outcomes for Mw=5.5 earthquakes with ground motion prediction equations GMPE’s developed for stable continental regions. Five cases were analyzed in order to explore the capabilities of ground motion simulation tools. In the five cases, the varied parameters were depth of the source, dip angle of the fault and dynamic properties of the fault. The models were developed in COMPSYN in 3DEC.By these comparisons we highlight the potentials and limitations of modelling to support empirical observations.

Seismic hazard estimates for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) in Finland are based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. The methodology integrates information from seismic activity levels in areas surrounding the NPP’s with models for the transmission of ground motion from the seismic source (GMPEs). GMPEs are calibrated with observed earthquake ground motions and express the relationship between the expected peak ground motion and the distance from the seismic source. The variability at a given distance can be significant, so it is important to calibrate GMPEs with sufficient data especially from larger magnitude earthquakes relevant for the safety of NPPs. In order to strengthen the reliability of GMPEs used in Finland we propose that synthetic ground motions are generated as surrogates for actual observations. Synthetic data can complement the calibration of the GMPEs in ranges of magnitude and distance where measurement data is missing. In this paper we describe a procedure for generating synthetic ground motions in the vicinity of larger earthquakes. We show the resulting patterns of ground motion and compare them to existing GMPEs. Finally, we show why the new Fennoscandia GMPEs should not be used for seismic hazard assessments before the coming update.

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Small to mid-magnitude earthquakes may generate very strong, potentially damaging, ground motion close to their epicenter. Fortunately, these ground motions attenuate quickly and a few tens of kilometers from the epicenter they barely exceed the range of perceptibility. Even if Fennoscandia is one of the most seismically quite regions, about 10-15 earthquakes are felt yearly in Finland.As the number of potentially sensitive infrastructure increases, it becomes important to investigate the potential ground motions generated locally by small earthquakes. Traditionally the concern has been nuclear installations, but industrial and chemical plants may also be source of hazard if equipment is damaged. The expansion of the IT infrastructure, especially the increasing numbers of data centers also results in a set of potentially affected sites.In Fennoscandian it is hard to collect data in the very close vicinity of earthquakes, because seismicity is diffuse and earthquakes do not occur in preferential locations. Only measurements of earthquake swarms by specially deployed temporary stations may offer some insights to the intensity of ground motions close to the epicenter location. However, computer modelling has evolved significantly and realistic modelling of earthquake events is becoming feasible.In this work we present a hybrid modelling approach for estimating ground motions in the vicinity of mid magnitude earthquakes. In a first computer model (3DEC) we simulate the dynamic rupture of the earthquake fault. The properties of the fault are adjusted to the expected earthquake. The stress state on the fault reproduces the expected stresses in the Earth’s crust. A shear failure is initiated in a small patch of the fault by lowering the shear strength. Once this failure is initiated it propagates in the fault area. We record the movements in a very large number of points in the fault area and transfer these movements to a second computer model (COMPSYN) where the ground motions are calculated using kinematic modelling.The method has been benchmarked in predicting ground motions of hypothetical earthquakes in the moment magnitude range of Mw=5.5 (Fülöp et al, 2017). The results show reasonable agreement with ground motion prediction equations from similar tectonic regions as Fennoscandia. However, with modelling we are able to take into account specific features of the Fennoscandian geology, when they differ from these international references.The predicted ground motions in the immediate vicinity of earthquakes sources can be used to estimate the hazard for potentially vulnerable buildings and other civil infrastructure.