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Rift propagation, rather than basal melt, drives the destabilization and disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has increased by ~70% during this period, transitioning from a rate of 1.65 m d−1 in 2019 to 2.85 m d−1 by early 2023 in the central area. The increase in longitudinal strain rates near the grounding zone has led to full-thickness rifts and melange-filled gaps since 2020. A recent sea-ice break out has accelerated retreat at the western calving front, effectively separating the ice shelf from what remained of its northwestern pinning point. Meanwhile, a distributed set of phase-sensitive radar measurements indicates that the basal melting rate is generally small, likely due to a widespread robust ocean stratification beneath the ice–ocean interface that suppresses basal melt despite the presence of substantial oceanic heat at depth. These observations in combination with damage modeling show that, while ocean forcing is responsible for triggering the current West Antarctic ice retreat, the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is experiencing dynamic feedbacks over decadal timescales that are driving ice-shelf disintegration, now independent of basal melt.

Ice tongues at the fringes of the Antarctic ice sheet lose mass primarily through both basal melting and calving. They are sensitive to ocean conditions which can weaken the ice both mechanically or through thinning. Ice tongues, which are laterally unconfined, are likely to be particularly sensitive to ocean-induced stresses. Here we examine ice tongues in the Western Ross Sea, by looking into the factors affecting their stability. We calculate the basal mass change of twelve Antarctic ice tongues using a flux gate approach, deriving thickness from ICESat-2 height measurements and ice surface velocities from Sentinel-1 feature-tracking over the same period (October 2018 to December 2021). The basal mass balance ranges between −0.14 ± 0.07 m yr−1 and −1.50 ± 1.2 m yr−1. The average basal mass change for all the ice tongues is −0.82 ± 0.68 m of ice yr−1. Low values of basal melt suggest a stable mass balance condition in this region, with low thermal ocean forcing, as other studies have shown. We found a heterogeneous basal melt pattern with no latitudinal gradient and no clear driver in basal melt indicating that local variables are important in the persistence of ice tongues in the absence of a strong oceanographic melting force. Moreover, thanks to the temporal resolution of the data we were able to resolve the seasonal variability of Drygalski and Aviator Ice Tongues, the two largest ice tongues studied.

Tidal modulation of ice streams and their adjacent ice shelves is a real-world experiment to understand ice-dynamic processes. We observe the dynamics of Priestley Glacier, Antarctica, using Terrestrial Radar Interferometry (TRI) and GNSS. Ocean tides are predominantly diurnal but horizontal GNSS displacements also oscillate semi-diurnally. The oscillations are strongest in the ice shelf and tidal signatures decay near-linearly in the TRI data over >10 km upstream of the grounding line. Tidal flexing is observed >6 km upstream of the grounding line including cm-scale uplift. Tidal grounding line migration is small and <40% of the ice thickness. The frequency doubling of horizontal displacements relative to the ocean tides is consistent with variable ice-shelf buttressing demonstrated with a visco-elastic Maxwell model. Taken together, this supports previously hypothesized flexural ice softening in the grounding-zone through tides and offers new observational constraints for the role of ice rheology in ice-shelf buttressing.

Despite their importance for sea-level rise, seasonal water availability, and as a source of geohazards, mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining subsystems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Here we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a modular and open-source numerical model framework for simulating past and future change of any glacier in the world. The modeling chain comprises data downloading tools (glacier outlines, topography, climate, validation data), a preprocessing module, a mass-balance model, a distributed ice thickness estimation model, and an ice-flow model. The monthly mass balance is obtained from gridded climate data and a temperature index melt model. To our knowledge, OGGM is the first global model to explicitly simulate glacier dynamics: the model relies on the shallow-ice approximation to compute the depth-integrated flux of ice along multiple connected flow lines. In this paper, we describe and illustrate each processing step by applying the model to a selection of glaciers before running global simulations under idealized climate forcings. Even without an in-depth calibration, the model shows very realistic behavior. We are able to reproduce earlier estimates of global glacier volume by varying the ice dynamical parameters within a range of plausible values. At the same time, the increased complexity of OGGM compared to other prevalent global glacier models comes at a reasonable computational cost: several dozen glaciers can be simulated on a personal computer, whereas global simulations realized in a supercomputing environment take up to a few hours per century. Thanks to the modular framework, modules of various complexity can be added to the code base, which allows for new kinds of model intercomparison studies in a controlled environment. Future developments will add new physical processes to the model as well as automated calibrat

Tidal flexure in ice shelf grounding zones has been used extensively in the past to determine grounding line position and ice properties. Although the rheology of ice is viscoelastic at tidal loading frequencies, most modelling studies have assumed some form of linear elastic beam approximation to match observed flexure profiles. Here we use density, radar and DInSAR measurements in combination with full-Stokes viscoelastic modelling to investigate a range of additional controls on the flexure of the Southern McMurdo Ice Shelf. We find that inclusion of observed basal crevasses and density dependent ice stiffness can greatly alter the flexure profile and yet fitting a simple elastic beam model to that profile will still produce an excellent fit. Estimates of the effective Young's modulus derived by fitting flexure profiles are shown to vary by over 200% depending on whether these factors are included, even when the local thickness is well constrained. Conversely, estimates of the grounding line position are relatively insensitive to these considerations for the case of a steep bed slope in our study region. By fitting tidal amplitudes only, and ignoring phase information, elastic beam theory can provide a good fit to observations in a wide variety of situations. This should, however, not be taken as an indication that the underlying rheological assumptions are correct.